NCAA Bracketology Feb 2nd: UCONN Out

    
February 2nd, 2010
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Final Four 2010

Final Four 2010


The weekly Bracketology field is based on how the tourney looks "as of this moment." The field below is not necessarily who I think deserves to be in, but simply a prediction of what the committee would do as things stand. In late February, I release Bracketology updates daily as the season approaches crunch time.

 

Why should you care what I have to say? In 2007 & 2008,  I was considered to have one of the Top 2 or 3 brackets amongst 53 national experts including Joe Lunardi, Gary Parrish and the like. (Admittedly my 2009 final bracket was rather weak.. not sure what happened. Can't win 'em all.)

 

Notes:

Arrows indicate movement by seed. Green indicates new to the field this week. Conference champions are not my end of season predictions, but current leaders. (Ties atop conference standings go to the higher RPI team).

   

ONE  

Kansas**

Villanova**

Syracuse

Kentucky**

 

TWO

Michigan State**

West Virginia

Georgetown 

Duke**

 

THREE

Purdue

Texas

Kansas State

BYU**

 

FOUR

Temple

Wisconsin

Vanderbilt

Tennessee

 

FIVE

Ohio St

Gonzaga**

New Mexico

Pittsburgh

 

SIX

Georgia Tech

Butler**

Northern Iowa**

Baylor

 

SEVEN

Florida State

Ole Miss

Wake Forest

Xavier**

 

EIGHT

UAB**

Clemson

California**

UNLV

 

NINE

Cornell** 

St. Mary's

Rhode Island

Missouri

 

TEN

Mississippi St

Texas A&M

Charlotte

Oklahoma St  

 

ELEVEN

Siena**

Cincinnati

Richmond

Louisville

 

TWELVE

Old Dominion

Arizona

Maryland

Wichita St

 

THIRTEEN

Utah St**

George Mason**  

Murray State**

Charleston**

 

FOURTEEN

Oakland**

Weber St**

Kent St**

Pacific**

 

FIFTEEN

Coastal Carolina**

Sam Houston St**

Arkansas St**

Morgan St**

 

SIXTEEN + ONE

Stony Brook**

Jacksonville**

Robert Morris**

Lehigh** / Jackson St**

 

** = Automatic Bid

 

 

League Leaders/Winners (31)

- Leaders throughout the season are merely the first place team in the standings as of the update, and not projected winners. Ties go to the higher RPI team. New teams this week in green.

 

America East - Strony Brook

A-10 - Xavier

ACC - Duke

Atlantic Sun - Jacksonville

Big 12 - Kansas

Big East - Villanova

Big Sky - Weber St

Big South - Coastal Carolina

Big Ten - Michigan St

Big West - Pacific

CAA - George Mason

Conference USA - UAB

Horizon - Butler

Ivy - Cornell

MAAC - Siena

MAC - Kent St

MEAC - Morgan St

MVC - Northern Iowa

MWC - BYU

Northeast - Robert Morris

Ohio Valley - Murray St

Pac-10 - California

Patriot - Lehigh

SEC - Kentucky

Southern - Charleston

Southland - Sam Houston St

SWAC - Jackson St

Summit - Oakland

Sun Belt - Arkansas St

WAC - Utah St

WCC - Gonzaga

*** = Locked Up Automatic Bid

 

Last In: Louisville, Old Dominion, Arizona, Maryland

 

Last Out: Virginia, UTEP, Florida, Dayton

Further Four: UCONN, Seton Hall, North Carolina, Illinois

 

Dropped Out Of Field (at-large): Dayton, North Carolina, Northwestern, UCONN, William & Mary

 

 

Comments

Shawn Siegel's picture

Today's Thoughts

-- UCONN & UNC both drop out of the field for the first time this season. Both still have a chance if they finish the conference season on a roll (moreso UNC who has some solid early non-conference wins.)

-- Charlotte, Arizona, and Wichita St all make the field for the first time. Arizona has the least success of the 3, but I'm convinced the committee will do what they can to take 2 Pac-10 teams, and the Wildcats have won 5 of 6 and have a solid RPI of 53.

-- Maryland is hanging on by a thread due to their 4-2 ACC record and 50th RPI. Here's a case of a team where I don't think they belong in the slightest, but believe the committee would be fooled by the ACC record. Look closer and they've beaten Miami, NC St, BC, and FSU at home. Those 4 wins are no better then being 4-2 in the CUSA or A10, but the committee is swayed by league affiliation.

What do you think about this week's field?

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mubrewcrew's picture

Marquette

I'm a little surprised that Marquette is not listed in your next 8 out. They have an RPI I've seen as high as 31 and SOS consistently in the top 30. They are also ahead of UCONN and Seton Hall in Big East standings and tied with Louisville, and that's after 5 conference games played against teams ranked in the top 8 in the nation. I wouldn't have them in yet, but they have to be close.

Also, I've seen a lot of different RPI numbers out there. Why is there such variation and which RPI do you find most accurate?

CHN Member
Anonymous's picture

RPI

RPI should not be much different on different sites. If it is, one of them is wrong. The reason it varies a little is because some games might be considered a road game by some while being considered a neutral game by others. For example, if a team played a home game at an off-campus arena 30 minutes from the campus.

The best site I've found for RPI is The Hoops Report. It's free, they update it every night, and there are a lot of details on there.

Shawn Siegel's picture

I use RealTimeRPI.com, or

I use RealTimeRPI.com, or http://insider.espn.go.com/ncb/rpi (which is the exact #'s and the right one to look at). Marquette's RPI is 60, not 30 (not sure where you got that from). They're certainly in the mix (they'd be in my next 4 if I listed it), but need to get back over .500 in league play (which I think they will soon).

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Boiler Up's picture

West Virginia/Purdue

You have WVU as a 2 seed and Purdue as a 3 seed even though their records are equal in the loss column and Purdue beat WVU head to head by 15 points?????? Please Explain.

Matt Pace's picture

Dayton

I understand UD not making the list. My questions are:

1. Are they a bubble team? They were 42 last I checked their RPI(CBSsports.com). They are 15-6. 4 of the 6 losses are top 25 teams in all polls, 1 is a fringe top 25, Those 5 are all in the top 25 RPI. One bad loss in Saint Josephs(1 point loss). All losses were by a few points. Two 1 point losses. They have 1 top 25 win and a couple top 125 RPI wins.

2. How does UD need to finish to get in? They have 9 games left. They have Xavier, Temple, Charlotte, and Richmond left as well as some other solid A-10 teams. If they were to go say 6-3 with a couple big wins and a three respectable losses. Are they in position to win a couple in the A-10 tourney and get in? Or do they need to do better than that?

Kentuckyforev18's picture

RE West Virginia/Purdue

head to head comparison that puts WV at a 2 and Purdue at a 3

West Virgina 18-3 (7-2)
RPI 6
SOS 8
6-2 vs the RPI top 50
8 wins against teams of RPI 101 or worse
Big East has #1 SOS

Purdue 19-3 (7-3)
RPI 10
SOS 34
4-2 vs RPI top 50
12 wins against teams of RPI 101 or worse
Big 10 has #4 SOS

The only thing Purdue has on WV is beating them at home..

CHN MemberUgroup Member

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