NCAA Bracketology Feb 2nd: UCONN Out
The weekly Bracketology field is based on how the tourney looks "as of this moment." The field below is not necessarily who I think deserves to be in, but simply a prediction of what the committee would do as things stand. In late February, I release Bracketology updates daily as the season approaches crunch time.
Why should you care what I have to say? In 2007 & 2008, I was considered to have one of the Top 2 or 3 brackets amongst 53 national experts including Joe Lunardi, Gary Parrish and the like. (Admittedly my 2009 final bracket was rather weak.. not sure what happened. Can't win 'em all.)
Notes:
Arrows indicate movement by seed. Green indicates new to the field this week. Conference champions are not my end of season predictions, but current leaders. (Ties atop conference standings go to the higher RPI team).
ONE
Kansas**
Kentucky**
TWO
Duke**
THREE
BYU**
![]()
FOUR
FIVE
Gonzaga**![]()
SIX
Butler**
SEVEN
Xavier**![]()
![]()
EIGHT
UAB**![]()
NINE
Cornell** ![]()
TEN
Charlotte
Oklahoma St ![]()
ELEVEN
Siena**![]()
Cincinnati![]()
Richmond![]()
Louisville
TWELVE
Old Dominion ![]()
Arizona
Maryland![]()
Wichita St
THIRTEEN
Utah St** ![]()
George Mason**
Murray State**
Charleston**
FOURTEEN
Oakland**
Weber St**
Kent St**
Pacific**
FIFTEEN
Coastal Carolina**![]()
Sam Houston St**
Arkansas St**
Morgan St**
SIXTEEN + ONE
Stony Brook**
Jacksonville**
Robert Morris**
Lehigh** / Jackson St**
** = Automatic Bid
League Leaders/Winners (31)
- Leaders throughout the season are merely the first place team in the standings as of the update, and not projected winners. Ties go to the higher RPI team. New teams this week in green.
America East - Strony Brook
A-10 - Xavier
ACC - Duke
Atlantic Sun - Jacksonville
Big 12 - Kansas
Big East - Villanova
Big Sky - Weber St
Big South - Coastal Carolina
Big Ten - Michigan St
Big West - Pacific
CAA - George Mason
Conference USA - UAB
Horizon - Butler
Ivy - Cornell
MAAC - Siena
MAC - Kent St
MEAC - Morgan St
MVC - Northern Iowa
MWC - BYU
Northeast - Robert Morris
Ohio Valley - Murray St
Pac-10 - California
Patriot - Lehigh
SEC - Kentucky
Southern - Charleston
Southland - Sam Houston St
SWAC - Jackson St
Summit - Oakland
Sun Belt - Arkansas St
WAC - Utah St
WCC - Gonzaga
*** = Locked Up Automatic Bid
Last In: Louisville, Old Dominion, Arizona, Maryland
Last Out: Virginia, UTEP, Florida, Dayton
Further Four: UCONN, Seton Hall, North Carolina, Illinois
Dropped Out Of Field (at-large): Dayton, North Carolina, Northwestern, UCONN, William & Mary
Comments
Marquette
I'm a little surprised that Marquette is not listed in your next 8 out. They have an RPI I've seen as high as 31 and SOS consistently in the top 30. They are also ahead of UCONN and Seton Hall in Big East standings and tied with Louisville, and that's after 5 conference games played against teams ranked in the top 8 in the nation. I wouldn't have them in yet, but they have to be close.
Also, I've seen a lot of different RPI numbers out there. Why is there such variation and which RPI do you find most accurate?

RPI
RPI should not be much different on different sites. If it is, one of them is wrong. The reason it varies a little is because some games might be considered a road game by some while being considered a neutral game by others. For example, if a team played a home game at an off-campus arena 30 minutes from the campus.
The best site I've found for RPI is The Hoops Report. It's free, they update it every night, and there are a lot of details on there.
I use RealTimeRPI.com, or
I use RealTimeRPI.com, or http://insider.espn.go.com/ncb/rpi (which is the exact #'s and the right one to look at). Marquette's RPI is 60, not 30 (not sure where you got that from). They're certainly in the mix (they'd be in my next 4 if I listed it), but need to get back over .500 in league play (which I think they will soon).

West Virginia/Purdue
You have WVU as a 2 seed and Purdue as a 3 seed even though their records are equal in the loss column and Purdue beat WVU head to head by 15 points?????? Please Explain.

Dayton
I understand UD not making the list. My questions are:
1. Are they a bubble team? They were 42 last I checked their RPI(CBSsports.com). They are 15-6. 4 of the 6 losses are top 25 teams in all polls, 1 is a fringe top 25, Those 5 are all in the top 25 RPI. One bad loss in Saint Josephs(1 point loss). All losses were by a few points. Two 1 point losses. They have 1 top 25 win and a couple top 125 RPI wins.
2. How does UD need to finish to get in? They have 9 games left. They have Xavier, Temple, Charlotte, and Richmond left as well as some other solid A-10 teams. If they were to go say 6-3 with a couple big wins and a three respectable losses. Are they in position to win a couple in the A-10 tourney and get in? Or do they need to do better than that?
RE West Virginia/Purdue
head to head comparison that puts WV at a 2 and Purdue at a 3
West Virgina 18-3 (7-2)
RPI 6
SOS 8
6-2 vs the RPI top 50
8 wins against teams of RPI 101 or worse
Big East has #1 SOS
Purdue 19-3 (7-3)
RPI 10
SOS 34
4-2 vs RPI top 50
12 wins against teams of RPI 101 or worse
Big 10 has #4 SOS
The only thing Purdue has on WV is beating them at home..










Today's Thoughts
-- UCONN & UNC both drop out of the field for the first time this season. Both still have a chance if they finish the conference season on a roll (moreso UNC who has some solid early non-conference wins.)
-- Charlotte, Arizona, and Wichita St all make the field for the first time. Arizona has the least success of the 3, but I'm convinced the committee will do what they can to take 2 Pac-10 teams, and the Wildcats have won 5 of 6 and have a solid RPI of 53.
-- Maryland is hanging on by a thread due to their 4-2 ACC record and 50th RPI. Here's a case of a team where I don't think they belong in the slightest, but believe the committee would be fooled by the ACC record. Look closer and they've beaten Miami, NC St, BC, and FSU at home. Those 4 wins are no better then being 4-2 in the CUSA or A10, but the committee is swayed by league affiliation.
What do you think about this week's field?