NCAA Tournament: East Region Odds/Prediction
As we did for the conference tournaments, here are log5 odds for the NCAA tournament, which take into account team’s overall offensive & defensive efficiency. The efficiency numbers are Ken Pomeroy’s, so I don’t claim credit for them, and while the basic procedure isn’t my own, the actual tables are. Semi-home games are considered in all cases, though there aren’t a whole lot of these.
East Region Odds
|
Seed |
Team |
R2 |
S16 |
E8 |
F4 |
Final |
Champion |
|
1 |
Pittsburgh |
93.87% |
72.04% |
53.76% |
31.77% |
17.75% |
9.43% |
|
2 |
Duke |
96.91% |
78.00% |
46.24% |
26.81% |
13.97% |
6.89% |
|
3 |
Villanova |
91.69% |
50.09% |
21.01% |
9.40% |
3.62% |
1.30% |
|
4 |
Xavier |
86.63% |
49.12% |
17.97% |
6.66% |
2.27% |
0.72% |
|
5 |
Florida St. |
46.96% |
22.14% |
6.59% |
1.97% |
0.54% |
0.13% |
|
6 |
UCLA |
81.27% |
44.46% |
24.26% |
13.85% |
7.08% |
3.42% |
|
7 |
Texas |
57.74% |
13.65% |
4.96% |
1.78% |
0.53% |
0.15% |
|
8 |
Oklahoma St. |
49.99% |
13.43% |
6.38% |
1.99% |
0.57% |
0.15% |
|
9 |
Tennessee |
50.01% |
13.44% |
6.39% |
2.00% |
0.57% |
0.15% |
|
10 |
Minnesota |
42.26% |
7.98% |
2.37% |
0.70% |
0.17% |
0.04% |
|
11 |
VCU |
18.73% |
4.49% |
1.03% |
0.26% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
|
12 |
Wisconsin |
53.04% |
26.49% |
8.52% |
2.76% |
0.82% |
0.22% |
|
13 |
Portland St. |
13.37% |
2.25% |
0.21% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
14 |
American |
8.31% |
0.96% |
0.10% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
15 |
Binghamton |
3.09% |
0.37% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
16 |
East Tennessee St. |
6.13% |
1.09% |
0.18% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Thoughts:
Pitt and Duke are the clear favorites to get through the East region, though if it were to come down to those two you’d probably feel Pitt had a better advantage than the odds would indicate. Despite not getting much attention, UCLA looks like a team that can cause a lot of trouble, though it will have a difficult time winning in Philadelphia against Nova. Wisconsin may be the region’s most interesting team; it’s nearly dead even in odds with Florida St., and a 12 over a 5 is always an attractive pick. Even more, should Wisconsin get by Florida St, it wouldn't be statistically shocking to see them topple Xavier.
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About Evan Dorey
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Evan Dorey - Game Previews
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Background
A recent university graduate from Markham, Ontario, who loves analyzing the statistics of sports in general, and college basketball in particular.