NCAA Tournament: East Region Odds/Prediction

    
March 17th, 2009

As we did for the conference tournaments, here are log5 odds for the NCAA tournament, which take into account team’s overall offensive & defensive efficiency. The efficiency numbers are Ken Pomeroy’s, so I don’t claim credit for them, and while the basic procedure isn’t my own, the actual tables are. Semi-home games are considered in all cases, though there aren’t a whole lot of these.

 

East Region Odds

Seed

Team

R2

S16

E8

F4

Final

Champion

1

Pittsburgh

93.87%

72.04%

53.76%

31.77%

17.75%

9.43%

2

Duke

96.91%

78.00%

46.24%

26.81%

13.97%

6.89%

3

Villanova

91.69%

50.09%

21.01%

9.40%

3.62%

1.30%

4

Xavier

86.63%

49.12%

17.97%

6.66%

2.27%

0.72%

5

Florida St.

46.96%

22.14%

6.59%

1.97%

0.54%

0.13%

6

UCLA

81.27%

44.46%

24.26%

13.85%

7.08%

3.42%

7

Texas

57.74%

13.65%

4.96%

1.78%

0.53%

0.15%

8

Oklahoma St.

49.99%

13.43%

6.38%

1.99%

0.57%

0.15%

9

Tennessee

50.01%

13.44%

6.39%

2.00%

0.57%

0.15%

10

Minnesota

42.26%

7.98%

2.37%

0.70%

0.17%

0.04%

11

VCU

18.73%

4.49%

1.03%

0.26%

0.05%

0.01%

12

Wisconsin

53.04%

26.49%

8.52%

2.76%

0.82%

0.22%

13

Portland St.

13.37%

2.25%

0.21%

0.02%

0.00%

0.00%

14

American

8.31%

0.96%

0.10%

0.01%

0.00%

0.00%

15

Binghamton

3.09%

0.37%

0.02%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

16

East Tennessee St.

6.13%

1.09%

0.18%

0.02%

0.00%

0.00%

 

Thoughts:

Pitt and Duke are the clear favorites to get through the East region, though if it were to come down to those two you’d probably feel Pitt had a better advantage than the odds would indicate.  Despite not getting much attention, UCLA looks like a team that can cause a lot of trouble, though it will have a difficult time winning in Philadelphia against Nova. Wisconsin may be the region’s most interesting team; it’s nearly dead even in odds with Florida St., and a 12 over a 5 is always an attractive pick. Even more, should Wisconsin get by Florida St, it wouldn't be statistically shocking to see them topple Xavier.

 

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