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NCAA Tournament: Midwest Region Odds/Prediction
March 17th, 2009
by Evan Dorey
As we did for the conference tournaments, here are log5 odds for the NCAA tournament, which take into account team’s overall offensive & defensive efficiency. The efficiency numbers are Ken Pomeroy’s, so I don’t claim credit for them, and while the basic procedure isn’t my own, the actual tables are. Semi-home games are considered in all cases, though there aren’t a whole lot of these.
Midwest Region Odds
|
Seed |
Team |
R2 |
S16 |
E8 |
F4 |
Final |
Champion |
|
1 |
Louisville |
96.70% |
75.11% |
55.51% |
34.68% |
19.14% |
10.75% |
|
2 |
Michigan St. |
91.13% |
62.54% |
29.62% |
14.35% |
7.14% |
3.62% |
|
3 |
Kansas |
80.59% |
39.26% |
22.87% |
11.37% |
4.93% |
2.18% |
|
4 |
Wake Forest |
75.08% |
45.18% |
18.07% |
7.88% |
2.88% |
1.08% |
|
5 |
Utah |
57.67% |
28.57% |
9.73% |
3.60% |
1.09% |
0.34% |
|
6 |
West Virginia |
87.26% |
53.98% |
34.64% |
19.29% |
9.56% |
4.83% |
|
7 |
Boston College |
34.54% |
9.48% |
2.08% |
0.49% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
|
8 |
Ohio St. |
69.97% |
19.85% |
8.52% |
2.63% |
0.66% |
0.17% |
|
9 |
Siena |
30.03% |
4.66% |
1.45% |
0.31% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
|
10 |
Southern California |
65.46% |
26.36% |
8.98% |
3.19% |
0.93% |
0.28% |
|
11 |
Dayton |
12.74% |
2.72% |
0.61% |
0.11% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
|
12 |
Arizona |
42.33% |
17.90% |
5.03% |
1.53% |
0.37% |
0.09% |
|
13 |
Cleveland St. |
24.92% |
8.36% |
1.66% |
0.35% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
|
14 |
North Dakota St. |
19.41% |
4.04% |
1.07% |
0.22% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
|
15 |
Robert Morris |
8.87% |
1.62% |
0.14% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
16 |
Morehead St. |
3.30% |
0.38% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Thoughts:
The numbers are starkly clear; Louisville is in a different class from the rest of the Midwest. The efficiency ratings continue to love West Virginia, and this could finally be the time when the Mountaineers come through to back that up. Michigan St. will face a major challenge from whoever comes out of Kansas’ sub-regional, while there’s a decent chance neither Wake nor Utah will even make it to a face-off against the Cardinals.
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About Evan Dorey
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Evan Dorey - Game Previews
Contact
evan.dorey@gmail.com
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A recent university graduate from Markham, Ontario, who loves analyzing the statistics of sports in general, and college basketball in particular.
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