NCAA Tournament: Midwest Region Odds/Prediction

    
March 17th, 2009

As we did for the conference tournaments, here are log5 odds for the NCAA tournament, which take into account team’s overall offensive & defensive efficiency. The efficiency numbers are Ken Pomeroy’s, so I don’t claim credit for them, and while the basic procedure isn’t my own, the actual tables are. Semi-home games are considered in all cases, though there aren’t a whole lot of these.

 

Midwest Region Odds

Seed

Team

R2

S16

E8

F4

Final

Champion

1

Louisville

96.70%

75.11%

55.51%

34.68%

19.14%

10.75%

2

Michigan St.

91.13%

62.54%

29.62%

14.35%

7.14%

3.62%

3

Kansas

80.59%

39.26%

22.87%

11.37%

4.93%

2.18%

4

Wake Forest

75.08%

45.18%

18.07%

7.88%

2.88%

1.08%

5

Utah

57.67%

28.57%

9.73%

3.60%

1.09%

0.34%

6

West Virginia

87.26%

53.98%

34.64%

19.29%

9.56%

4.83%

7

Boston College

34.54%

9.48%

2.08%

0.49%

0.09%

0.02%

8

Ohio St.

69.97%

19.85%

8.52%

2.63%

0.66%

0.17%

9

Siena

30.03%

4.66%

1.45%

0.31%

0.05%

0.01%

10

Southern California

65.46%

26.36%

8.98%

3.19%

0.93%

0.28%

11

Dayton

12.74%

2.72%

0.61%

0.11%

0.01%

0.00%

12

Arizona

42.33%

17.90%

5.03%

1.53%

0.37%

0.09%

13

Cleveland St.

24.92%

8.36%

1.66%

0.35%

0.06%

0.01%

14

North Dakota St.

19.41%

4.04%

1.07%

0.22%

0.04%

0.01%

15

Robert Morris

8.87%

1.62%

0.14%

0.01%

0.00%

0.00%

16

Morehead St.

3.30%

0.38%

0.04%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

 

Thoughts:

The numbers are starkly clear; Louisville is in a different class from the rest of the Midwest. The efficiency ratings continue to love West Virginia, and this could finally be the time when the Mountaineers come through to back that up. Michigan St. will face a major challenge from whoever comes out of Kansas’ sub-regional, while there’s a decent chance neither Wake nor Utah will even make it to a face-off against the Cardinals.

 

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