NCAA Tournament: South Regions Odds/Prediction

    
March 17th, 2009

As we did for the conference tournaments, here are log5 odds for the NCAA tournament, which take into account team’s overall offensive & defensive efficiency. The efficiency numbers are Ken Pomeroy’s, so I don’t claim credit for them, and while the basic procedure isn’t my own, the actual tables are. Semi-home games are considered in all cases, though there aren’t a whole lot of these.

 

South Region Odds

Seed

Team

R2

S16

E8

F4

Final

Champion

1

North Carolina

97.76%

84.40%

49.72%

33.49%

20.04%

11.20%

2

Oklahoma

91.81%

53.63%

26.50%

9.73%

4.13%

1.58%

3

Syracuse

85.73%

46.34%

25.98%

10.14%

4.55%

1.85%

4

Gonzaga

91.39%

68.62%

36.84%

24.35%

14.24%

7.76%

5

Illinois

83.09%

27.39%

9.03%

3.97%

1.46%

0.48%

6

Arizona St.

73.52%

42.07%

24.51%

10.09%

4.74%

2.03%

7

Clemson

68.23%

34.68%

16.21%

5.56%

2.22%

0.79%

8

Louisiana St.

49.39%

7.49%

1.92%

0.60%

0.15%

0.03%

9

Butler

50.61%

7.83%

2.04%

0.65%

0.17%

0.04%

10

Michigan

31.77%

10.73%

3.18%

0.64%

0.19%

0.05%

11

Temple

26.48%

9.08%

3.09%

0.64%

0.16%

0.04%

12

Western Kentucky

16.91%

1.83%

0.19%

0.03%

0.00%

0.00%

13

Akron

8.61%

2.15%

0.25%

0.04%

0.01%

0.00%

14

Stephen F. Austin

14.27%

2.51%

0.46%

0.05%

0.01%

0.00%

15

Morgan St.

8.19%

0.96%

0.08%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

16

Radford

2.24%

0.28%

0.02%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

 

Thoughts:

The South is interesting because of the potential Gonzaga-North Carolina Sweet Sixteen matchup, featuring the region's top two teams. Oklahoma is the weakest two seed in the field, and don’t be surprised if a good Arizona St. team manages to put up a strong showing.

 

 

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