NCAA Tournament: South Regions Odds/Prediction
March 17th, 2009
by Evan Dorey
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As we did for the conference tournaments, here are log5 odds for the NCAA tournament, which take into account team’s overall offensive & defensive efficiency. The efficiency numbers are Ken Pomeroy’s, so I don’t claim credit for them, and while the basic procedure isn’t my own, the actual tables are. Semi-home games are considered in all cases, though there aren’t a whole lot of these.
South Region Odds
|
Seed |
Team |
R2 |
S16 |
E8 |
F4 |
Final |
Champion |
|
1 |
North Carolina |
97.76% |
84.40% |
49.72% |
33.49% |
20.04% |
11.20% |
|
2 |
Oklahoma |
91.81% |
53.63% |
26.50% |
9.73% |
4.13% |
1.58% |
|
3 |
Syracuse |
85.73% |
46.34% |
25.98% |
10.14% |
4.55% |
1.85% |
|
4 |
Gonzaga |
91.39% |
68.62% |
36.84% |
24.35% |
14.24% |
7.76% |
|
5 |
Illinois |
83.09% |
27.39% |
9.03% |
3.97% |
1.46% |
0.48% |
|
6 |
Arizona St. |
73.52% |
42.07% |
24.51% |
10.09% |
4.74% |
2.03% |
|
7 |
Clemson |
68.23% |
34.68% |
16.21% |
5.56% |
2.22% |
0.79% |
|
8 |
Louisiana St. |
49.39% |
7.49% |
1.92% |
0.60% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
|
9 |
Butler |
50.61% |
7.83% |
2.04% |
0.65% |
0.17% |
0.04% |
|
10 |
Michigan |
31.77% |
10.73% |
3.18% |
0.64% |
0.19% |
0.05% |
|
11 |
Temple |
26.48% |
9.08% |
3.09% |
0.64% |
0.16% |
0.04% |
|
12 |
Western Kentucky |
16.91% |
1.83% |
0.19% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
13 |
Akron |
8.61% |
2.15% |
0.25% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
|
14 |
Stephen F. Austin |
14.27% |
2.51% |
0.46% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
|
15 |
Morgan St. |
8.19% |
0.96% |
0.08% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
16 |
Radford |
2.24% |
0.28% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Thoughts:
The South is interesting because of the potential Gonzaga-North Carolina Sweet Sixteen matchup, featuring the region's top two teams. Oklahoma is the weakest two seed in the field, and don’t be surprised if a good Arizona St. team manages to put up a strong showing.
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About Evan Dorey
Columnist
Evan Dorey - Game Previews
Contact
evan.dorey@gmail.com
Background
A recent university graduate from Markham, Ontario, who loves analyzing the statistics of sports in general, and college basketball in particular.
Only one
Gonzaga is the only team in D-1 basketball to be in the top 10 in Pomeroy's offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. That's why they are so much higher than Oklahoma and Syracuse. And those efficiency ratings do factor in strength of schedule...that's why you don't really see true mid and low majors in the Pomeroy ratings until the 40's.