NCAA Tournament: Upset & Cinderella Odds

March 16th, 2009 by Shawn Siegel

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Anyone who guarantees a first round upset is being a fool.. you just never know. But CollegeHoops.net's Tournament Odds gives you an idea about which upsets, early bust-outs, and Cinderella runs are most likely.

Best to Worst

Lock

Highly Likely

Probably

50/50

Probably Not

Highly Doubtful

Impossible

		1st Round Win / Make 2nd Round	2nd Round Win / Make Sweet 16	Sweet 16 Win / Make Elite Eight	Elite 8 Win / Make Final Four
1	Louisville	Lock	Highly Likely	Highly Likely	Probably
16	Opening Round	Impossible	Impossible	Impossible	Impossible
9	Siena	50/50	Highly Doubtful	Highly Doubtful	Impossible
8	Ohio St	50/50	Highly Doubtful	Highly Doubtful	Impossible
5	Utah	50/50	Probably Not	Highly Doubtful	Highly Doubtful
12	Arizona	50/50	Probably Not	Highly Doubtful	Impossible
13	Cleveland St	Probably Not	Highly Doubtful	Impossible	Impossible
4	Wake Forest	Probably	Highly Likely	50/50	Probably Not
3	Kansas	Highly Likely	Highly Likely	Probably	Probably Not
14	North Dakota St	Highly Doubtful	Highly Doubtful	Impossible	Impossible
11	Dayton	Probably Not	Probably Not	Probably Not	Highly Doubtful
6	West Virginia	Probably	Probably Not	Probably Not	Probably Not
7	Boston College	50/50	Probably Not	Highly Doubtful	Impossible
10	USC	50/50	Probably Not	Highly Doubtful	Impossible
15	Robert Morris	Highly Doubtful	Impossible	Impossible	Impossible
2	Michigan St	Highly Likely	Highly Likely	Probably	Probably Not

		1st Round Win / Make 2nd Round	2nd Round Win / Make Sweet 16	Sweet 16 Win / Make Elite Eight	Elite 8 Win / Make Final Four
1	UCONN	Lock	Highly Likely	Highly Likely	Probably
16	Chattanooga	Impossible	Impossible	Impossible	Impossible
9	Texas A&M	Probably	Highly Doubtful	Impossible	Impossible
8	BYU	Probably Not	Probably Not	Highly Doubtful	Impossible
5	Purdue	Probably	50/50	Probably Not	Highly Doubtful
12	Northern Iowa	Probably Not	Highly Doubtful	Impossible	Impossible
13	Mississippi St	Probably Not	Probably Not	Highly Doubtful	Impossible
4	Washington	Probably	50/50	Probably Not	Highly Doubtful
3	Missouri	Highly Likely	50/50	Probably Not	Probably Not
14	Cornell	Highly Doubtful	Impossible	Impossible	Impossible
11	Utah St	50/50	Probably Not	Highly Doubtful	Highly Doubtful
6	Marquette	50/50	Probably Not	Highly Doubtful	Highly Doubtful
7	California	50/50	Highly Doubtful	Highly Doubtful	Impossible
10	Maryland	50/50	Highly Doubtful	Highly Doubtful	Impossible
15	Northridge	Impossible	Impossible	Impossible	Impossible
2	Memphis	Lock	Highly Likely	Probably	Probably Not

		1st Round Win / Make 2nd Round	2nd Round Win / Make Sweet 16	Sweet 16 Win / Make Elite Eight	Elite 8 Win / Make Final Four
1	Pittsburgh	Lock	Highly Likely	Highly Likely	50/50
16	ETSU	Impossible	Impossible	Impossible	Impossible
9	Tennessee	50/50	Probably Not	Probably Not	Highly Doubtful
8	Oklahoma St	50/50	Probably Not	Highly Doubtful	Impossible
5	Florida St	Highly Likely	Probably	Probably Not	Highly Doubtful
12	Wisconsin	Highly Doubtful	Highly Doubtful	Impossible	Impossible
13	Portland St	Highly Doubtful	Highly Doubtful	Impossible	Impossible
4	Xavier	Highly Likely	50/50	Probably Not	Highly Doubtful
3	Villanova	Highly Likely	50/50	Probably Not	Probably Not
14	American	Highly Doubtful	Highly Doubtful	Impossible	Highly Doubtful
11	VCU	50/50	Probably Not	Highly Doubtful	Impossible
6	UCLA	50/50	Probably Not	Probably Not	Probably Not
7	Texas	Probably	Probably Not	Probably Not	Highly Doubtful
10	Minnesota	Probably Not	Highly Doubtful	Impossible	Impossible
15	Binghamton	Impossible	Impossible	Impossible	Impossible
2	Duke	Lock	Highly Likely	Probably	50/50

		1st Round Win / Make 2nd Round	2nd Round Win / Make Sweet 16	Sweet 16 Win / Make Elite Eight	Elite 8 Win / Make Final Four
1	North Carolina	Lock	Lock	Highly Likely	Highly Likely
16	Radford	Impossible	Impossible	Impossible	Impossible
9	Butler	Probably	Highly Doubtful	Highly Doubtful	Impossible
8	LSU	Probably Not	Highly Doubtful	Impossible	Impossible
5	Illinois	Probably	50/50	Probably Not	Highly Doubtful
12	Western Ky.	Probably Not	Probably Not	Highly Doubtful	Highly Doubtful
13	Akron	Highly Doubtful	Highly Doubtful	Impossible	Impossible
4	Gonzaga	Highly Likely	50/50	Probably Not	Probably Not
3	Syracuse	Highly Likely	50/50	Probably Not	Probably Not
14	Stephen F Austin	Highly Doubtful	Highly Doubtful	Impossible	Impossible
11	Temple	Probably Not	Highly Doubtful	Highly Doubtful	Impossible
6	Arizona St	Probably	50/50	Probably Not	Probably Not
7	Clemson	Probably	Probably Not	Probably Not	Probably Not
10	Michigan	Probably Not	Highly Doubtful	Impossible	Impossible
15	Morgan St	Highly Doubtful	Highly Doubtful	Impossible	Impossible
2	Oklahoma	Highly Likely	Probably	50/50	Probably Not

1 Seeds

Most likely Final Four team: North Carolina

Most likely Not to reach Sweet Sixteen: Pittsburgh

2 Seeds

Most likely Final Four team: Duke

Most likely Not to reach Sweet Sixteen: Oklahoma

3 Seeds

Most likely Final Four team: Syracuse

Most likely Not to reach Sweet Sixteen: Missouri

4 Seeds

Most likely Final Four team: Wake Forest

Most likely Not to reach Sweet Sixteen: Xavier

5 Seeds

Most likely Final Four team: Florida St

Most likely Not to reach Sweet Sixteen: Utah

6-7 Seeds

Most likely Final Four team: Arizona St, West Virginia (6s), Clemson (7)

Most likely first round loss: UCLA (6), Boston College (7)

8-9 Seeds

Most likely Elite Eight teams: BYU, Ohio State (8s), Tennessee (9)

10-11 Seeds

Most likely Final Four team: Utah State, Dayton (11s)

12-13 Seeds

Most likely to Make Deep Run: Arizona, Western Kentucky (12s), Mississippi St (13),

14-15-16 Seeds

Most likely Cinderella teams: Stephen F Austin, American (14s), Morgan State (15)

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Shawn Siegel is the self-proclaimed "hardest working man on the internet." He created CHN back in the summer of 2002, and it has since grown into the web's largest independent college basketball site. Besides designing and maintaining the site, Shawn also deals with advertising, marketing, editing.. and virtually all other aspects of running the site. Shawn's college basketball and NBA Draft commentary has appeared across the web, print, and radio media. Please email him with any and all media requests.

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