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NCAA Tournament: West Region Odds/Prediction
March 17th, 2009
by Evan Dorey
As we did for the conference tournaments, here are log5 odds for the NCAA tournament, which take into account team’s overall offensive & defensive efficiency. The efficiency numbers are Ken Pomeroy’s, so I don’t claim credit for them, and while the basic procedure isn’t my own, the actual tables are. Semi-home games are considered in all cases, though there aren’t a whole lot of these.
West Region Odds
|
Seed |
Team |
R2 |
S16 |
E8 |
F4 |
Final |
Champion |
|
1 |
Connecticut |
97.88% |
70.32% |
47.36% |
25.82% |
15.14% |
8.56% |
|
2 |
Memphis |
94.32% |
77.70% |
52.76% |
33.24% |
20.89% |
12.72% |
|
3 |
Missouri |
90.34% |
60.50% |
27.68% |
14.14% |
7.20% |
3.51% |
|
4 |
Washington |
76.22% |
41.80% |
17.13% |
6.81% |
2.97% |
1.23% |
|
5 |
Purdue |
82.50% |
47.09% |
19.70% |
7.99% |
3.55% |
1.50% |
|
6 |
Marquette |
71.64% |
30.69% |
10.89% |
4.33% |
1.72% |
0.64% |
|
7 |
California |
62.16% |
14.70% |
5.32% |
1.66% |
0.52% |
0.15% |
|
8 |
Brigham Young |
71.27% |
24.37% |
12.37% |
4.69% |
1.95% |
0.77% |
|
9 |
Texas A&M |
28.73% |
5.18% |
1.56% |
0.32% |
0.07% |
0.02% |
|
10 |
Maryland |
37.84% |
6.32% |
1.65% |
0.36% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
|
11 |
Utah St. |
28.36% |
6.96% |
1.35% |
0.29% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
|
12 |
Northern Iowa |
17.50% |
4.13% |
0.58% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
|
13 |
Mississippi St. |
23.78% |
6.98% |
1.30% |
0.24% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
|
14 |
Cornell |
9.66% |
1.85% |
0.19% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
15 |
Cal St. Northridge |
5.68% |
1.28% |
0.16% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
16 |
Chattanooga |
2.12% |
0.12% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Thoughts:
The two major national title contenders in the West, UCONN & Memphis should be expected to meet in the Elite Eight, but there’s only a 25% chance both will make it, as some serious challengers lie in wait. The efficiency numbers like BYU, and suggest they could give the Huskies a little scare. But the real threat to a 1-2 meeting is Missouri, which has a fairly weak section and a lot of ability.
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About Evan Dorey
Columnist
Evan Dorey - Game Previews
Contact
evan.dorey@gmail.com
Background
A recent university graduate from Markham, Ontario, who loves analyzing the statistics of sports in general, and college basketball in particular.
