NCAA Tournament: West Region Odds/Prediction

    
March 17th, 2009

As we did for the conference tournaments, here are log5 odds for the NCAA tournament, which take into account team’s overall offensive & defensive efficiency. The efficiency numbers are Ken Pomeroy’s, so I don’t claim credit for them, and while the basic procedure isn’t my own, the actual tables are. Semi-home games are considered in all cases, though there aren’t a whole lot of these.

 

West Region Odds

Seed

Team

R2

S16

E8

F4

Final

Champion

1

Connecticut

97.88%

70.32%

47.36%

25.82%

15.14%

8.56%

2

Memphis

94.32%

77.70%

52.76%

33.24%

20.89%

12.72%

3

Missouri

90.34%

60.50%

27.68%

14.14%

7.20%

3.51%

4

Washington

76.22%

41.80%

17.13%

6.81%

2.97%

1.23%

5

Purdue

82.50%

47.09%

19.70%

7.99%

3.55%

1.50%

6

Marquette

71.64%

30.69%

10.89%

4.33%

1.72%

0.64%

7

California

62.16%

14.70%

5.32%

1.66%

0.52%

0.15%

8

Brigham Young

71.27%

24.37%

12.37%

4.69%

1.95%

0.77%

9

Texas A&M

28.73%

5.18%

1.56%

0.32%

0.07%

0.02%

10

Maryland

37.84%

6.32%

1.65%

0.36%

0.08%

0.02%

11

Utah St.

28.36%

6.96%

1.35%

0.29%

0.06%

0.01%

12

Northern Iowa

17.50%

4.13%

0.58%

0.08%

0.01%

0.00%

13

Mississippi St.

23.78%

6.98%

1.30%

0.24%

0.05%

0.01%

14

Cornell

9.66%

1.85%

0.19%

0.02%

0.00%

0.00%

15

Cal St. Northridge

5.68%

1.28%

0.16%

0.02%

0.00%

0.00%

16

Chattanooga

2.12%

0.12%

0.01%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

 

Thoughts:

The two major national title contenders in the West, UCONN & Memphis should be expected to meet in the Elite Eight, but there’s only a 25% chance both will make it, as some serious challengers lie in wait. The efficiency numbers like BYU, and suggest they could give the Huskies a little scare. But the real threat to a 1-2 meeting is Missouri, which has a fairly weak section and a lot of ability.

 

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