Big Ten

Rise & Fall: BCS Conference Review

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 12:21:22 -0700

In recent weeks, the Rise & Fall series has chronicled the progress (or regress) of college basketball's major conference teams. But if I equated each team to a civilization, I was mistaken. It is really the NCAA conference that equates to a burgeoning civilization or nation, each with its sometimes stable and sometimes rotating member states. Like civilizations, the prestige and power of conferences wax and wane..

Today, we finish with the status of the BCS "power" conferencess. (Check out the Rise & Fall: Data article to see how the league groupings were made).

BCS CONFERENCES

ACC - STATUS QUO

For four of the past five years, the ACC has led the nation in RPI.. and it should be in the running for that title once again in 08-09. UNC is obviously loaded, and Duke could arguably finish 2nd in the league and 2nd in the country. The ACC hasn't had a bad season since 2000, and that trend should continue regardless of how schools like BC and Virginia struggle. Bad teams in the ACC are really just mediocre teams in other leagues. For example, last place finisher BC had a non-conference RPI of 132, which was 26 spots higher than 2nd place Big Ten finisher Purdue.

BIG EAST - STATUS QUO

The Beast is hard to judge because league membership has changed a lot since taking on the CUSA expats in 2005. Its also the largest league in the country with 16 teams. Its conceivable that 9 teams make the Dance in 2009, but its also conceivable that bottom-feeders like DePaul, USF, and St. John's finish with sub-200 RPIs. Though this should be the Big East's best season (perhaps finishing 1st in RPI for the first time since the 90's?), it merely makes up for the past two sub-par seasons.

BIG TEN - DECLINING

Outside of a freak 2006 season (1st in RPI), the Big Ten has been rather weak in recent seasons.. hovering around 5th or 6th in the RPI. Last year was certainly the worst in recent memory with an RPI of 6th and a non-league RPI of 8th (worse than the A10 & MVC). This year should continue this recent trend of mediocrity. Indiana is obviously decimated, perennial doormats Northwestern and Penn State will fill their usual roles, while the recent decline of Illinois continues with the suspension of Jamar Smith. Things aren't all bad.. Michigan State has legitimate Final Four hopes, Wisconsin should pull off its usual surprise success, Purdue is on the right track, and Ohio State brings in another monster class. But whatever success those schools have will be offset by the four or five teams that end up being absolutely awful.

BIG 12 - STATUS QUO

Despite being home to the reigning national champs, the numbers suggest that it was basically an average season for the Big 12 (3rd compared to an average of 4.3 over since 1999). Kansas and Texas have dominated the league for the last decade, with '04 Oklahoma State being the only other Big 12 team to lead the league in RPI. This trend should continue as Texas looks to be the heavy favorites ahead of Oklahoma. Overall, there aren't any major trends to note in the Big 12. Baylor is a team on the rise, but those gains are offset by the decline of Oklahoma State and the recent struggles of Iowa State.

PAC-10 - RISING

Just a handful of years ago, the Pac-10 was the ugly step-child of BCS leagues. From 2000 to 2007, the league was arguably no better than the likes of the MWC or A10. It hit an all-time low in 2004 when the Pac-10 finished 9th in overall RPI. However, the league has regained its lost stature in the last two seasons, in large part due to coaching changes in SoCal. Ben Howland has rejuvenated UCLA, while Tim Floyd has brought back a bit of swagger (and NBA talent) to USC. After being 2nd in the RPI last year, I expect a fall back to the 4-5 range, which is still solid considering the lows a few years back.

SEC - DECLINING (SLOWLY)

From 2000 to 2003, the SEC led the nation in RPI each season. Since that impressive four-year run, things have taken a step back and last season's RPI (4th) is the new norm. While the top could be even better than last year (Florida should rebound and Tennessee should once again be great), it is the bottom tier teams holding the league back. Georgia's been plagued by personnel issues, South Carolina's mired in mediocrity, LSU can't find stability, Auburn is going nowhere, while Arkansas recently lost every talented player on its roster.

- Note that league power isn't quite as fluid as team power, so seemingly small baby steps end up counting more..

BCS

ACC

Big 12

Big East

Big Ten

Pac-10

SEC

High-Major

Atlantic 10

Conference USA

MVC

MWC

WAC

Mid-Major

Big West

Colonial

Horizon

MAC

MAAC

Southern

Sun Belt

WCC

Rise & Fall: The Data

Rise & Fall: Mid-Majors

Rise & Fall: High-Majors

Poll: Who Will be the Worst Team in the Big Ten?

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 07:58:11 -0700

Rise and Fall: Big Ten Program Review

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 19:54:32 -0700

Like civilizations, all great basketball programs eventually fall.. replaced by an upstart newcomer. In this week's Rise & Fall series, we'll take a look at which BCS programs are rising, falling, or merely treading water. Up today, the:

BIG TEN

ILLINOIS - DECLINING (SLOWLY )

From a sky-high RPI of 2 in 2005, its been all downhill to 103rd last year. Another blah season should be expected as Pruitt & Randle depart, and there's no real incoming class to speak of. Its not all bad though, as the Illini have some serious talent lined up for 2009 (and 2010 if Crandall Head continues his speedy development).. but in the meantime, another sub-.500 conference record should be expected.

INDIANA - DECLINING (QUICKLY)

Not much to say here. Y'all know the Hoosiers situation as well as I do. If you want a good laugh, head over to IUHoosiers.com to check out their roster for 08-09..

IOWA - DECLINING (QUICKLY)

While the Illini's drop from 2 to 103 looks bad, how about Iowa's tumble from 7th to 193rd in just three seasons. The transfer of Tony Freeman to SIU was just one of many recent blows, and its going to take awhile to turn this ship around. Players like Cole, Tate, and Kelly are alright talents who should improve, but "alrights" won't get it done in the Big Ten. And while this year's deep recruiting class looks promising on paper, it lacks that one wow talent that can get things rolling along quickly. Todd Lickliter deserves patience to turn things around, but 2010 is the earliest any real results should be expected.

MICHIGAN - STATUS QUO

Michigan hasn't really been good since before this website even existed. Last year's horrendous season was an aberration against a long line of mediocre NIT-level teams. Now that talents like Harris, Sims, and Grady are a year older.. getting back to that 70ish RPI, fringe-NIT team range is probable (though losing Udoh was a blow since he had serious potential.) Luckily for John Beilein, half the conference is in rebuilding mode, so the current mediocrity will fit right in.

MINNESOTA - RISING (SLOWLY)

Tubby Smith never got the credit he deserves, but he might finally get that credit in a few years if Minnesota improves as expected (or at least as I expect). While last year's 20-win season is a bit misleading because the Gophers barely beat any top-150 teams.. there's definitely some positive momentum brewing. This year's recruiting haul is better than recent seasons, and local product Royce White joins the program in 2009.

MICHIGAN STATE - STATUS QUO

While there haven't been any remarkable MSU teams in recent seasons, Tom Izzo has still been churning out Top 25 clubs. This year's crew could be the best since 2001 (not even taking the welcome additions of Roe and Lucious into account), as it has legitimate Elite Eight potential. Neitzel's impressive career is over, but he handed over the torch to the new era early in his senior season.

NORTHWESTERN - STATUS QUO

If anything, the program is somehow on the downwards turn as last year's 7-22 debacle was an embarrassment to major-conference basketball. (I guess not on the level of Oregon State though..) This year's recruiting class, mediocre by usual Big Ten standards, is actually the Wildcats best of the new millennium. The problem is that serious improvement, ie a 20 win season, might not come until the next millennium..

OHIO STATE - RISING (SLOWLY)

After hyper-speed, supersonic growth in 2006 & 2007, the Buckeyes are back to your normal garden-variety type of improvement. An underrate senior (Butler), and an overrated freshman (Koufous) depart, clearing the way for another monster recruiting class. If Mullens and/or Buford go pro after next season, major gains could once again be retarded.

PENN STATE - STATUS QUO

A program perpetually on the verge of getting decent, but who never manages to put it all together. The Lions have easily been the worst program in the Big Ten for the last 8-9 seasons or so.. occasionally managing to make Northwestern look like All-Stars.

PURDUE - RISING (QUICKLY)

Last year's big national surprise should once again be good.. but I'm not sure if the Boilers will be that much better. The Big Ten was simply bad last year and Purdue feasted on a lot of struggling teams that will be better this time around. In fact, the 25 wins only yielded a mediocre RPI of 45 (though an AP ranking of 20th). So while the computer ranking should jump into the high 20's, it might not be the super-breakthrough many fans are expecting. The loss of Scott Martin to ND was a small crack in the armor, and this year's class doesn't add much to the mix. Still, you can't argue that things are heading in the right direction.

WISCONSIN - STATUS QUO

Bo Ryan is consistently the most underrated coach in the country, and last year's surprise 31 win season was just another in a long string of good years. Losing Brian Butch, who came up clutch in some late-season wins, hurts.. but its nothing that won't be overcome. There's no reason to expect anything less than the now expected push for the Big Ten title.. right there with Michigan State.

- up next is the Pac-10 -

Daily Dribble: 2009 NCAA Tournament Projection

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 10:25:35 -0700

We're only one day beyond the 2008 National Championship Game.. but its never too early to start thinking about next year's Tournament. Here's an early projection of the 2009 NCAA Tournament field:

Multi-Bid Leagues (46)
Big East (9) - UCONN - (Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia)
ACC (6) - Duke - (Clemson, Miami, UNC, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest)
Pac-10 (5) - UCLA - (Arizona, Arizona State, Stanford, USC)
Big 12 (5) - Kansas - (Baylor, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M)
SEC (5) - Florida (Kentucky, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee)
Big Ten (4) - Purdue - (Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin)
Mountain West (2) - BYU - (UNLV)
A-10 (2) - Xavier - (Dayton)
Missouri Valley (2) - Creighton - (Drake)
Conference USA (2) - Memphis - (UAB)
WCC (2) - Gonzaga - (Saint Mary's)
WAC (2) - Nevada - (New Mexico State)

One-Bid Leagues (19)
America East - Vermont
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
Big Sky - Portland State
Big South - Winthrop
Big West - Pacific
CAA - VCU
Horizon - Wright State
Ivy - Cornell
MAAC - Siena
MAC - Kent State
MEAC - Morgan State
Northeast - Robert Morris
Ohio Valley - Murray State
Patriot - American
Southern - Davidson
Southland - Stephen F Austin
SWAC - Alabama State
Summit - IUPUI
Sun Belt - MTSU

Next In Line: Washington State, Washington, San Diego State, San Diego

Note: I'll be doing an updated projection later on in the summer once decisions about the NBA Draft are made. Let me know in the comments section if you agree or disagree with the selections.

Also: Check out last year's projection which had some good, bad, and ugly picks.

Poll: What Will be the Most Exciting BCS Conference Tournament?

Shawn Siegel — Wed, 05 Mar 2008 08:33:48 -0800

Big Ten: All-January

Jeff Fox — Fri, 08 Feb 2008 07:45:51 -0800

It’s been a dogfight in the Big Ten this season, with five teams within two games of first place. It has also been a dogfight with regard to the top players in the conference, with only D.J. White standing out as an obvious choice for the Big Ten All-January team. With that being said, here’s January’s Fab Five.

Guard – Drew Neitzel – Michigan State – SR
13.7ppg, 4.5apg, 2.5rpg
Best game – Jan 27th – Michigan – 18 points, seven boards, seven assists, two steals

Drew Neitzel is quietly having a solid senior year. January was another typical Neitzel month – 14 points, three board, five assists, and two steals per game. He also is continuing to take good care of the ball, averaging around 2.5 assists per turnover for the month.

Guard – Eric Gordon – Indiana – FR
21.8ppg, 3.3rpg, 1.5spg
Best game – Jan 20th – Penn St – 25 points, six rebounds, three assists

It shows how good Eric Gordon has been playing when you consider January was a bad month for him – he only averaged 19 points, three assists and three rebounds a game. He continues to shoot around 48% from the floor, a terrific number for a guard who takes as many shots as he does. However, he’s got to stop coughing up the rock – he averaged almost four turnovers a game in January.

Guard – Jamar Butler – Ohio State – SR
15.0ppg, 6.2apg, 3.9rpg
Best game – Jan 3rd – 32 points, six rebounds, six assists

No longer playing second fiddle, the Buckeyes are Jamar Butler’s team this year. He responded in January, scoring 20-plus points five times and put up averages of 17 points, seven assists and four rebounds.

Forward – Raymar Morgan – Michigan State – SO
16.0ppg, 6.8rpg, 56.0 FG%
Best game – Jan 5th – Minnesota – 31 points, 10 boards

Morgan had a bit of an up and down month, failing to score in double figures in a couple of games. On the other side of the coin, he topped 20 points twice and averaged a solid 16 points and six board for the month.

Forward – D.J. White – Indiana – SR
17.5ppg, 10.7rpg, 1.8bpg
Best game – Jan 8th – Michigan – 21 points, 22 rebounds

D.J. White slaughtered the competition in January. He had six double-doubles (including that 20-20 game versus the Wolverines). For the month he averaged 18 points and 12 boards. Enough said.

Next up – Big 12

Welser Wonders: ACC Bids, BracketBuster, A10 vs B10

Joel Welser — Wed, 30 Jan 2008 09:25:26 -0800

There is a reason February is the shortest month of the year. It makes March come quicker than we expect and that means BracketBusters is coming soon and the bubble watch is in full swing. This week, those topics dominate what “Welser Wonders…”

…who will step up in the ACC?

At the moment the nation’s best conference has only three NCAA worthy teams. No surprise that North Carolina and Duke are locks, but Clemson is the other team who would be dancing if Selection Sunday were today. At this time last year Clemson was all but a lock too, only to blow it in February and March so we won’t put it past them to do it again.

Of course the ACC will get more than three teams into the tournament, but the other nine teams are simply a mess right now. Coming off a loss to Wake Forest, Miami has taken a step back towards the pack after a solid start. Boston College is actually third in the conference standings at 3-2 and has a decent overall record (12-6), but their RPI is 11^th in the conference. Maryland has a nice signature win over UNC, but they also lost to American University. Even Virginia, with a 1-4 conference record, is not out of the running quite yet. A couple home losses to the Tech schools has hindered the Cavaliers conference campaign, but there are plenty of opportunities for big wins.

The ACC should have at least five or six bids to work with, so it will all come down to who can pull it together right now and make a run. If everybody continues to just beat up each other and nobody besides Duke and North Carolina can separate themselves from the pack, the league could end up with fewer teams dancing than they deserve.

…what will come of the most over-hyped event in college basketball this year?

Sure, it is fun to go out and play somebody out of conference in February, but there are more important games going on right now…which nobody cares about. The showcase BracketBusters game this year should be matching up the top two current teams in the field, Saint Mary’s and Drake. Yet, those two teams already played earlier this year. The Gaels won 72-66 and handed Drake their only loss of the year if you don’t remember that November 10^th match-up.

Since that game won’t happen again, we are likely looking at Kent State traveling to Saint Mary’s and Drake heading to Butler. There are some other teams who have at-large hopes like Illinois State and George Mason, but really those are the big four at the moment. Unfortunately, it is the visiting teams that need the victory the most for at-large purposes. Barring huge collapses, Saint Mary’s and Butler should be in the tournament with a win or loss on BracketBusters Saturday. So Kent State and Drake can really boost their hopes with a win, but they won’t be devastated with a loss either. Losing on the road to the Gaels or Bulldogs certainly will not be a big blow to the RPI. In fact, even a loss is resume booster compared to beating Evansville or Ball State.

What’s that all mean? It means the BracketBusters probably won’t really bust any brackets at all. Saint Mary’s (unless they keep losing to teams like San Diego) and Butler are in either way, Drake is likely in with a win or a loss and it is more important for Kent State to keep beating who they should beat in conference play. That’s not to say it wouldn’t help if the Flashes win, but it certainly won’t knock them out of contention. Looking ahead to traveling to the west coast and losing on February 19^th to Buffalo would knock them out of contention.

…whether the A-10 will get more teams into the big dance than the Big Ten?

Top to bottom the A-10 is not better than the Big Ten, but on the top it is very close. In the A-10, Xavier, Dayton, Rhode Island and Massachusetts are all deserving of an at-large bid at the moment. The Big Ten has Michigan State, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Indiana that fit into that category. Where it gets interesting is comparing the fifth teams in each conference…St. Joseph’s and Purdue. Both teams have five losses, but it is the Hawks who are more deserving of a bid right now thanks to a healthy dose of non-conference road games. Usually at this time of the year we figure the Big Ten team will get an RPI boost since they play in the Big Ten. But that is not the case this year since the A-10 is hanging with the Big Ten blow for blow as far as the RPI is concerned.

Luckily there is a long way left to go and St. Joe’s has their big games ahead of them and plenty of opportunities to get a signature win or two. The Hawks have yet to play Xavier and also take on Villanova, Rhode Island and Dayton before all is said and done. The Boilermakers just got their big win against Wisconsin and can follow that up with another win over Wisconsin, Michigan State or Indiana in February. If the committee had to pick a team now they should pick the Hawks over Purdue, but who knows if that would really happen.

…when Davidson will be noticed (again) as a team that can do damage in March?

The Wildcats failed to prove they could beat any NCAA Tournament caliber team when they lost to North Carolina, Western Michigan, Duke, Charlotte, UCLA and NC State in November and December. But since then Davidson has found its groove by beating up on fellow SoCon opponents. Bob McKillop’s squad has won the last seven games by an average of over 17 points. The most impressive part is that six of those games were on the road. With the bulk of the remaining schedule in their friendly confines, the Wildcats could very well finally find their comfort zone after spending the first three months of the season playing most of their games on the road.

There is no doubt that the team is very talented. They have already begun to play how we all expected to them in November and it could get even better. Yet, this is not a team that needed time to develop. Everybody from last year is back and virtually playing the same minutes. That is why a big win or two in the non-conference schedule would not have been surprising. What better time to beat NC State when they are still adjusting to life without Engin Atsur?

Davidson may have overscheduled a bit during non-conference play, but it seems like we have completely stopped talking about them since there is not a quality win to be found on the schedule. This is still a deep team with a ton of dangerous weapons who will most likely be in the NCAA Tournament after winning the Southern Conference Tournament. I certainly wouldn’t want to be a three or four seed and see Stephen Curry and Jason Richards on my bracket in the first round.

Big Ten: All-November

Jeff Fox — Sat, 08 Dec 2007 09:23:17 -0800

Like the case across most of the BCS conferences, a freshman is leading the way in the Big 10. The old dogs are doing ok also, as two seniors make this early season list.

Guard – Eric Gordon – Indiana - FR

24.3ppg, 3.5rpg, 2.6apg

Best game – Nov 12^th – UT-Chattanooga – 33 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists

Indiana native Gordon has the Hoosier’s primed to be one of the nation’s elite teams this year and challenge for the Big 10 title. He scored 20 or more points in all the games he played in this year until getting injured last game and only logging 12 minutes. He has been deadly from downtown, shooting 22 for 44.

Guard – Trevon Hughes – Wisconsin - SO

16.7ppg, 4.6rpg, 2.3spg

Best game – Nov 11^th – IPFW – 25 points, 5 boards, 5 assists, 6 steals

Hughes’ huge jump in production this season is the main reason Wisconsin finds itself still ranked in the top 25. Considering he only played about seven minutes a game last season and averaged 1.4ppg, this year has been a pleasant surprise.

Guard/Forward – Geary Claxton – Penn State - SR

19.1ppg, 8.1rpg, 2.1apg

Best game – Nov 23^rd – Rider – 23 points, 12 boards, 4 assists

Claxton has come out the gates on fire, already ringing up three games of at least 20 and 10. Claxton will have to keep it up to for the Nittany Lions to have any chance at succeeding in the Big 10 this season.

Forward – Raymar Morgan – Michigan State - SO

17.6ppg, 7.9rpg, 60.8 FG %

Best game – Nov 13^th – Chicago St – 25 points, 15 rebounds

Drew Neitzel was expected to be the standout for the Spartans this season, but in the early going it has been the youngster Morgan leading the way. Whether Michigan State can stay in the top 10 and win the Big 10 title will depend on whether Morgan can keep it up.

Forward – D.J. White – Indiana - SR

14.8ppg, 8.6rpg, 1.8bpg

Best game – Dec 3^rd – Tennessee St – 29 points, 13 boards

With rookie Gordon handling things on the outside, White is taking care of business in the paint. He is currently in the midst of a four game streak of double-doubles.

ACC: All-November

Big 12: All-November

- Big East coming tomorrow -

Poll: Should ESPN End the Big Ten/ACC Challenge?

Shawn Siegel — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 07:45:45 -0800

Poll: Who Will Win the Big Ten/ACC Challenge?

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 25 Nov 2007 19:44:41 -0800

Big Ten

Rise & Fall: BCS Conference Review

Poll: Who Will be the Worst Team in the Big Ten?

Rise and Fall: Big Ten Program Review

Daily Dribble: 2009 NCAA Tournament Projection

Poll: What Will be the Most Exciting BCS Conference Tournament?

Big Ten: All-January

Welser Wonders: ACC Bids, BracketBuster, A10 vs B10

Big Ten: All-November

Guard – Eric Gordon – Indiana - FR

Best game – Nov 11th – IPFW – 25 points, 5 boards, 5 assists, 6 steals

Poll: Should ESPN End the Big Ten/ACC Challenge?

Poll: Who Will Win the Big Ten/ACC Challenge?

Best game – Nov 11^th – IPFW – 25 points, 5 boards, 5 assists, 6 steals