Florida St

The Starting Fives: ACC

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 11:11:16 -0700

Unlike the NBA, where most starting lineups are set in stone weeks before the season, NCAA starting fives are highly unsettled and constantly in flux. Going through the BCS leagues this week, I'll be projecting the starting fives for each team. Also included is the team's most important bench option, and some notes on other possible lineups.

In the case where a quality player is ineligible for the fall semester or suspended for the opening few games, I've still included them in the projections. These are really supposed to be projections of how lineups will look in February and March.

Next week, based on these lineups, I'll be throwing out statistical projections for major BCS contributors.

THE ACC

Boston College

G Biko Paris So
G Tyrese Rice Sr
F Rakim Sanders So
F Corey Raji So
C Josh Southern So

6 Joe Trapani (PF)

Notes: BC's lineup is pretty well settled. Tyler Roche could be just as important as Southern or Trapani in the frontcourt. Freshman guards Reggie Jackson and Dallas Elmore should also figure into the regular rotation.

Clemson

G Demontez Stitt So
G Terrence Oglesby So
G KC Rivers Sr
F Raymond Sykes Sr
C Trevor Booker Jr

6 Andre Young (PG)

Notes: The freshman Young is well-hyped, but Clemon's returnees are too solid for him to sneak into the starting five. David Potter and Jerai Grant should be the other reserves seeing major minutes.

Duke

G Greg Paulus Jr
G Jon Scheyer Jr
G Gerald Henderson Jr
F Kyle Singler So
C Brian Zoubek Jr

6 Lance Thomas (PF)

Notes: Compared to the above teams, Duke's minutes are up for grabs. Scheyer isn't a lock to start, as both Elliot Williams and Nolan Smith will push him for minutes. I put Thomas as the 6th man because he'll inevitably see major minutes when Zoubek gets tired, hurt, or in foul-trouble.

Florida State

G Toney Douglas Sr
G Derwin Kitchen So
F Chris Singleton Fr
F Uche Echefu Sr
F Solomon Alabi Fr

6 Ryan Reid (PF)

Notes: The Noles will be relying on youth as much as any ACC team. Alabi is a raw, talented freshman, but it wouldn't suprise me if Reid ends up starting at some point. Another freshman, Deividas Dulkys, could be the team's highest scoring option off the bench.

Georgia Tech

G Maurice Miller So
G Lewis Clinch Sr
F Iman Shumpert Fr
F Gani Lawal So
C Zack Peacock Jr

6 D'Andre Bell (G/F)

Notes: Unless he's a bust, there's no reason Shumpert won't start from day one. Bell could be one of the ACC's best reserves, while senior Alade Aminu is the best forward off the bench.

Maryland

G Greivis Vasquez So
G Eric Hayes Jr
F Landon Milbourne Jr
F Jerome Burnley So
C Braxton Dupree So

6 Sean Mosley (SG)

Notes: The only possible change from this lineup is that Dino Gregory beats out Burnley for the PF spot. Cliff Tucker and Adrian Bowie will also get major reserve minutes, and could possibly start if Milbourne falters.

Miami

G Lance Hurdle Sr
G Jack McClinton Sr
F James Dews Jr
F Dwayne Collins Jr
C Jimmy Graham Sr

6 Brian Asbury (PF)

Notes: Miami has more experience and more depth than most ACC teams. Asbury is good enough to start, and could relegate either Dews or Graham to a reserve role. Arkansas transfer Cyrus McGowan could also take minutes from Graham. Edwin Rios will be the backup point guard, while freshman swing-man DeQuan Jones should also see 15-20 mpg.

NC State

G Farnold Degand Jr
G Courtney Fells Sr
F Tracy Smith So
F Brandon Costner Jr
C Ben McCauley Sr

6 Julius Mays (G)

Notes: This seems to be the consensus starting five that everyone expects. The addition of freshman Mays is big, because he should allow the Pack to play quicker three-guard lineups (perhaps relegating Smith to the bench). Dennis Horner should be the first of State's weak frontcourt reserves to see action.

North Carolina

G Ty Lawson Jr
G Wayne Ellington Jr
F Marcus Ginyard Sr
F Deon Thompson Jr
F Tyler Hansbough Sr

6 Danny Green (SF)

Notes: This lineup should be familiar, since it returns untouched from last year. Bobby Frasor will be the other piece of UNC's seven-man core. One of either freshman Ed Davis or Tyler Zellar will emerge as the first big off the bench.

Virginia

G Calvin Baker Jr
G Jeff Jones So
F Mamadi Diane Sr
F Mike Scott So
C Tunji Soroye Sr*

6 Sylven Landesberg (SG)

Notes: UVA has some options, unfortunately most of them aren't very good. Sammy Zeglinski is a possible starter at the point, but I expect Baker to win the job. The freshman Landesberg could replace Jones, but might be better as a super-sub to start. Up front, Jamil Tucker will probably be the first big man off the pine. *Soroye will be back for a 5th season, while potential starter Laurynas Mikalauskas was kicked off the team during the summer.

Virginia Tech

G Malcolm Delaney So
G AD Vassallo Sr
F JT Thompson So
F Jeff Allen So
F Victor Davila Fr

6 Lewis Witcher (PF)

Notes: This lineup is definitely not set in stone. Davila and Witcher could swap starting spots, but I'm going with Davila because he's the better offensive player. Hank Thorns (who began last year as the starting PG) could regain a starting spot, pushing Vassallo to the wing and Thompson to the 6th man role.

Wake Forest

G Ishmael Smith Jr
G Jeff Teague So
F Al-Farouq Aminu Fr
F James Johnson So
C Chas McFarland Jr

6 LD Williams (G/F)

Notes: Wake is getting a lot of hype due to its freshmen, but the returning players aren't bad either. Harvey Hale will join Williams as the two main guards/wings off the bench. Front-court minutes are up for grabs. Besides newcomers Ty Walker and Tony Woods fighting for the backup center role, you also have PF Jamie Skeen who would start for most teams. Junior big David Weaver might be the odd man out.

Think my projections are off, let me know below where you differ!

Poll: First Coach to be Fired?

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 09:27:00 -0700

State of '08: Florida

Shawn Siegel — Sat, 13 Sep 2008 09:48:10 -0700

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Duke or Carolina? BC or UMASS? Gonzaga or Washington.. or Washington State? What is the best program in each state? While there's not much competition in Hawaii.. there are great debates to be had in loaded regions like California, North Carolina, and Texas. The State of '08 is a ranking of every program in every state.. based mostly on recent success (the last five years) mixed in with subjective factors such as conference prestige, historical success, and overall program direction.

Up today: Florida For more info, check out the State of '08 introduction.

FLORIDA

FLORIDA - Obvious choice at the top of the Sunshine state. Before last year, Billy Donovan's Gators had made 9 NCAA Tournaments in a row.. including back to back national titles. Hart to top that.

MIAMI - Since Frank Haith took over four years ago, Miami has made two NIT trips and one NCAA Tournament. But in the five years before last, Miami hadn't reached the Top 60 in RPI, and they've still never finished above .500 in the ACC. Fans are certainly expecting a big ACC finish this time around.

FLORIDA STATE - The 'Noles perpetually seem to be on the verge of something big, but they can't seem to get over the hump. This is basically the story of Leonard Hamilton's career. In the last six years, FSU has hovered between 41 and 81 in the RPI five times.. but have yet to reach the Big Dance.

CENTRAL FLORIDA - Despite lacking the profile of a Miami or FSU, UCF is a consistently solid team that deserves more attention. Long time coach Kirk Speraw has led the Knights to four NCAA Tournaments, and helped them make the transition to the more competitive Conference USA. Since joining the CUSA before 2006, the Knights have finished .500 or better in league play each season.

SOUTH FLORIDA - The Bulls haven't had much success since joining the Big East, but the program does seem to be gaining momentum. Last year, USF beat three Top 60 teams including FSU, UAB, and Syracuse.

6. FLORIDA A&M - The Rattlers are always one of the better teams in the MEAC. In fact, 2001 was the last time FAMU finished below .500 in league play. Although the MEAC is the 2nd worst league in the country, the Rattlers have taken advantage of the weak competition by making the Tournament in 2004 & 2007.

7. FLORIDA ATLANTIC - After a shocking Tourney run in 2002, the Owls haven't sniffed postseason play. In fact, FAU has only won two SB tournament games in the past six seasons, though they've been competitive in the last three seasons. It will be interesting to see if new head coach Mike Jarvis can regain some his former glory, after his tenure at St. John's came to an embarrassing end.

8. JACKSONVILLE - The Dolphins are coming off one of their best campaigns in recent memory, finishing 2nd in the A-Sun, making it to the conference title game, and finishin with an RPI of 164. That's pretty heady stuff for a program that was 1-26 in 2006 (only managing to knock of UNF). This is the 2nd season in a row that JU led its Florida rivals (Stetson, FGCU, and UNF) in the A-Sun.

9. STETSON - The Mad Hatters have hovered around 250 in the RPI for the past couple years, but are coming off a decent campaign that included an 11-5 Atlantic Sun record. This is the second time Stetson has won 11 league games in the past three seasons.

10. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL - FIU is consistently overmatched by its Sun Belt competition. The Panthers haven't finished above .500 in league play since 2000.. and really haven't come close since. At least things have improved since 03 & 04 when FIU was one of the worst teams in the country, winning just 10 D1 games those years.

11. BETHUNE-COOKMAN - The Wildcats continue to struggle, finishing 3rd to last in the lowly MEAC in back to back seasons. 2000 was probably the last time there was any legitimate hope of making a run in the conference tournament.

12. FLORIDA GULF COAST - In their first full D1 season, FGCU had decent success, winning 10 games, including 6 in the Atlantic Sun. At the very least, this already puts them ahead of North Florida.

13. NORTH FLORIDA - Despite a decent nickname (the Ospreys), UNF hasn't had even the slightest success since joining D1 in 05-06. UNF has won an amazingly small 7 D1 games in the past three seasons, and only beat winless NJIT in the RPI last year.

Last: D.C. - Next: Georgia

State of '08: The Introduction

2008-09 Florida State Basketball Preview: #78

Joel Welser — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 08:20:33 -0700

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Florida State Seminoles

Overall Rank: #78

Conference Rank: #8 ACC

2007-08: 19-15, 7-9, 7^th

2007-08 postseason: NIT

Florida State had a pretty average season last year which ended in the first round of the NIT at the hands of Akron. For the most part the Seminoles beat the teams they were supposed to beat and lost to the teams they were supposed to lose to. The absence of a trio of guards might lead to less consistency, but the addition of a great recruiting class could lead to a few more big wins. In the end however, a few big wins will not make up for a few bad losses and that means another trip to the NIT for FSU.

Who’s Out:

Ralph Mims, Jason Rich, Isaiah Swann were the senior leaders on the team last year and combined to average 37.9 points, 6.6 assists, 11.8 rebounds and 3.8 steals. Not only is that a heck of a lot of production lost in a lot of categories, but their leadership might be missed even more. Forwards Julian Vaughn and Matt Zitani each started a handful of games. Experienced depth is a nice thing to have, but the newcomers will not have much of a problem replacing the production.

Who’s In:

Forwards Chris Singleton and Xavier Gibson will not just provide depth, they could be starting. Singleton, a 6-9 small forward, is the best recruit in a strong recruiting class. He can shoot from the outside with ease and will use his size to battle in the paint. Singleton is a great athlete who can handle the ball and play defense anywhere on the court. His versatility allows him to play a lot of positions, but FSU needs him at small forward and he very well could be starting at that position before long. Gibson can shoot from the outside too, but the 6-11 freshman spends most of his time dominating the paint. Coach Leonard Hamilton did not save all the talented newcomers for the frontcourt. Deividas Dulkys, Luke Loucks, Pierre Jordan and Derwin Kitchen will help replace all the losses on the perimeter. Dulkys is a great athlete who can shoot the ball and fills a need at the shooting guard spot. However, it is Kitchen and his experience that will likely fill in at the starting spot right away. Kitchen, who signed with St. John’s before heading to the junior college level, is most known for his defense, but he can certainly score too. The 6-4 junior will likely spend most of his minutes at the two guard spot, but he can handle the ball as well and play the point when necessary. However, with Loucks and Jordan coming off the bench, Kitchen will probably not need to play the point.

Who to Watch:

The newcomers on the perimeter could hold their own in the ACC right now, but they will not have to do such things quite yet. Point guard and defensive specialist Toney Douglas will be the team leader. He led the squad with 15.4 points per game last year, but he might have to do even more this time around without Mims, Rich and Swann by his side…at least early in the campaign while the freshmen are still adjusting to their roles. Small forward Jordan DeMercy did not make much of a name for himself during his freshman season, averaging under ten minutes per game. But with that year of experience under his belt he will get the first opportunity to earn a starting position. He might not be able to hang onto it with Singleton breathing down his neck, but DeMercy will stay play an important role off the bench and has the potential to do more.

Final Projection:

The frontcourt has more than potential. Uche Echefu averaged 10.0 points and a team high 7.3 rebounds last year and Ryan Reid has plenty of experience after starting 21 games a season ago. What gives the big guys hope to be much improved over last season is the return of Solomon Alabi. The 7-1 center only played in a few games as a freshman due to a leg injury, but there was good reason to be excited during those few games. Alabi is a fine shot blocker and his length will cause huge problems for the opposition on both ends of the floor. If everything comes together nicely, this is an NCAA Tournament team. However, that is depending on freshmen. Florida State has been inconsistent over the last few years and this young team will continue to have that problem.

Projected Post-season Tournament: NIT

Projected Starting Five:

Toney Douglas, Senior, Guard, 15.4 points per game

Derwin Kitchen, Junior, Guard, DNP last season

Jordan DeMercy, Sophomore, Forward, 1.4 points per game

Uche Echefu, Senior, Forward, 10.0 points per game

Solomon Alabi, Freshman, Center, 3.9 points per game

Complete Top 144 Ranking | 2008-09 Preview & Awards | Coach Interviews | Discuss the Preview

Poll: Who Is the ACC's Top Incoming Freshman?

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 08:40:09 -0700

Rise and Fall: ACC Program Review

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 07 Jul 2008 10:31:31 -0700

Like civilizations, all great basketball programs eventually fall.. replaced by an upstart newcomer. In this week's Rise & Fall series, we'll take a look at which BCS programs are rising, falling, or merely treading water.

ACC

BOSTON COLLEGE - STATUS QUO
Expect more out of the same from the Eagles in coming seasons.. a step forward here and there followed by another step back. Al Skinner is a good enough coach to keep the program from bottoming out, so they should hover in the 15-20 win range for awhile.

CLEMSON - RISING (slowly)
Amazingly, the Tigers RPI has risen every year since 2001. From that low of 168th to 19th this past season. Another gain isn't likely in 08-09, but its hard to imagine that Oliver Purnell and Co. will break through the Top 10 in the neat future. Mays and Hammonds are gone, and KC Rivers just has one moe season left. Still, give Purnell credit for quieting the doubters and getting Clemson back on the rise.

DUKE - STATUS QUO
If anything, it seems like the Devils are slightly on the downwards turn, as they peaked at #1 in the RPI in both '04 and '06. Still, this year's group has top 5 potential and I see no reason why Coach K won't keep loading up on 5-Star prospects in the near future.

FLORIDA STATE - STATUS QUO
Hope and promise. Two things that FSU has had a lot of recent seasons, but they continually manage to avoid the one thing that matters: success. Once again, big time recruits like Chris Singleton join the fray, but another 17-20 win season is likely.

GEORGIA TECH - STATUS QUO
The Jackets have been a middling team for the past two seasons, and change is unlikely this time around. Iman Shumpert was a nice catch for Paul Hewitt, and he should be a major contributor for the next few seasons.

MARYLAND - DECLINING (slowly)
Last year was the 3rd time in 4 seasons that the Terps finished below the top 40 RPI.. disappointing numbers from a program that was once right there with Duke and UNC. Outside of Vasquez, there's not too much to get excited about this year, and its not like there's any monster reenforcements waiting in the wings. The only thing stopping Maryland from a fast decline is that Gary Williams usually manages to get the most out of his team.. he's just not brining in the talent like he used to.

MIAMI - RISING (slowly)
With the exception of Anthony King, most of last year's important contributors return from a 23-win team. Though that total was kind of flukey considering how weak the program had been in recent seasons, more important is the new arena and the signing of DeQuan Jones. More Top 25-50 signings like Jones are needed if Miami wants to seriously solidify its claim as an ACC contender.

NORTH CAROLINA - RISING (quickly)
Simply put, UNC is blowing up into the nation's premier program. Forget last year's #1 RPI ranking, the huge amount of returning talent, and another solid incoming class.. the future could be even brighter. The 2009 recruiting crop of Henson, Strickland, et al is sick, while Roy Williams has already locked up two of 2010's Top 20 prospects.

NORTH CAROLINA STATE - STATUS QUO
Last year at this time, many thought NC State was in the same hyperspeed improvement mode as Wake Forest. But JJ Hickson bolted after a season, Gavin Grant graduated, and Costner and McCauley's production split in half. Suddenly, another last place (or close to it) finish seems likely.

VIRGINIA - DECLINING (slowly)
The Cavaliers have had about one legit Top 25 team in the last decade.. so their current mediocrity isn't terribly surprising. But managing only 5 ACC wins despite a consistent 20 ppg from Sean Singletary was definitely a downer. All hope isn't lost as Dave Leitao has some emerging talents like Jones, Landesberg, and Brandenburg to work with.. but in the ACC, those names are merely par for the course.

VIRGINIA TECH - RISING (slowly)
While the Hokies weren't amazing last year and only project to be in the 30-40 range this year, that's still a major improvement from a team that was one of the worst in major conference basketball just a few years back. Seth Greenburg is proving to be one the best coaches in the league, not necessarily in terms of recruiting (though Jeff Allen was a big deal), but in terms of mastering a system that works.

WAKE FOREST - RISING (quickly)
Perhaps the country's fastest rising program, Wake Forest is on the verge of reaching heights beyond the grasp of Tim Duncan's lengthy arms. Last year's
average 7-9 ACC squad was full of freshman and sophomores, and would have been in line to win 9 or 10 league games even without new enforcements. The addition of three stud prospects though, including the future pro Al-Farouq Aminu, could push the Deacons into the basketball stratosphere.

- Big East Rise & Fall is coming soon...

2008 NIT Capsule: Florida State

Joel Welser — Fri, 14 Mar 2008 15:04:27 -0700

Florida State Seminoles

Atlantic Coast Conference (19-14, 7-9)

Big Wins: 2/6 at Miami (62-55), 2/19 Clemson (64-55), 3/8 Miami (75-72)

Bad Losses: 11/17 vs Cleveland State (66-69), 12/22 at Providence (95-101), 2/14 Wake Forest (70-78)

Coach: Leonard Hamilton

Probable Starters:

Toney Douglas, Junior, Guard, 15.6 ppg, 2.9 apg, 2.7 spg

Ralph Mims, Senior, Guard, 11.7 ppg, 4.4 rpg

Jason Rich, Senior, Guard, 14.7 ppg, 4.2 rpg

Ryan Reid, Sophomore, Forward, 5.3 ppg, 4.9 rpg

Uche Echefu, Sophomore, Forward, 9.7 ppg, 7.2 rpg

Key Roleplayers:

Julian Vaughn, Freshman, Forward, 3.1 ppg, 2.4 rpg

Matt Zitani, Senior, Forward, 1.4 ppg, 1.2 rpg

Jordan Demercy, Freshman, Forward, 1.3 ppg, 1.4 rpg

Why They Can Surprise:

If Florida State can stay close, they can win a game at the end because of their superb free-throw shooting. As a team the Seminoles shoot 77.5 percent from the line. Only four teams in the nation can say they have a better number than that. The guards do their part in the free-throw shooting, but Florida State will depend on the guards to do much more than just score at the free-throw line.

Toney Douglas leads the way with 15.6 points per game. He is a decent outside shooter and will hit about two three-pointers per contest, but the point guard does a lot of scoring around the basket and that is where he is most effective. Jason Rich is an all-around talent. He averages 14.7 points per game, but he does so much more. Rich is a solid defender and rebounder and will help the team even when his shots are not falling. The final piece of the backcourt trio is Ralph Mims. The versatile 6-3 senior can fill in at any position on the perimeter.

Why They Can Disappoint:

And FSU needed Mims to fill in when Isaiah Swann went down with an injury late in the year. The Seminoles would have been in trouble without an experienced and versatile player like Mims available. Yet, Florida State will still have problems without Swann and his three-point shooting ability. Nobody can replace that and Coach Leonard Hamilton is left with just six players who average over ten minutes per game. Douglas was already playing about 35 minutes per game and he will probably not get a chance to rest until FSU loses a game. Swann also had the best assist-to-turnover ratio on the team and this is a group that does not dish out a lot of assists and turns the ball over way too much.

Who To Watch

The frontcourt might not do as much scoring as the guards, but Uche Echefu is not too shabby at putting up some points. The 6-9 sophomore is not a true post scorer, but his ability to step outside and hit the mid-range jumper helps stretch out the defense. With Echefu’s 7.2 rebounds per game, he is extremely valuable to Florida State. Ryan Reid does not put up the numbers that Echefu does, but he will do the dirty work around the basket. The Seminoles depth is very inexperienced, but at least they have a few relatively big bodies that can come in off the bench.

By the Numbers:

Scoring Offense: 72.5 (104^th in nation, 8^th in conference)

Scoring Defense: 68.7 (165, 3)

Field-Goal Percentage: 44.2 (159, 8)

Field-Goal Defense: 43.2 (143, 7)

Three-Point Field Goals Per Game: 6.9 (146, 9)

Three-Point Field-Goal Percentage: 35.0 (171, 8)

Free-Throw Percentage: 77.5 (5, 1)

Rebound Margin: 0.0 (180, 9)

Assists Per Game: 11.0 (302, 12)

Turnovers Per Game: 15.0 (213, 7)

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2007-08 Florida State Basketball Preview

Joel Welser — Wed, 15 Aug 2007 09:15:51 -0700

Florida State Seminoles

Overall Rank: #88

Conference Rank: #9 ACC

2006-07: 22-13, 7-9, 8^th (t)

2006-07 postseason: NIT

If Florida State could not do any better than the bubble with Al Thornton, there is good reason to believe that they will not be any better without him. Yet, the focus will now switch to the perimeter where the Seminoles boast quite a bit of talent that is ready to step up their scoring load. The team will desperately need to find a scoring threat in the paint to open up the shooters, but FSU has enough talent to shoot for the bad side of the bubble once again.

Who’s Out:

Thornton averaged a team high 19.7 points, 7.2 rebounds, 1.1 blocks and 1.5 steals during his senior campaign before being drafted with the 14^th overall pick in the 2007 NBA Draft. Replacing all those numbers will not be done by one person, or probably any number of individuals on the Florida State roster. Jerel Allen has run out of eligibility after spending most of the season coming off the bench. He was a decent shooter and provided a spark for the perimeter group. Seldom used Jose Soto has opted to transfer after seeing limited minutes in Tallahassee.

Who’s In:

Solomon Alabi and Julian Vaughn will immediately reinforce the frontcourt. Alabi is the player that has fans excited. The 7-1 center has very little offensive game, but is a great shot blocker and will work hard on the glass. His defensive presence alone will earn him quality minutes, if not a starting job. Vaughn is a surprisingly good athlete for a 6-9, 240 pound power forward. He can get the job done with his back to the basket or on the perimeter. Small forward Jordan DeMercy will need some time to develop his skills, but has the potential to be a quality roleplayer before his season is through. It is Chris Blake who has the possibility of making a splash as a freshman. The 6-5 guard is a great team player and will contribute on the defensive end right away. His shooting can be a little streaky, but he is an effective scorer when he needs to be.

Who to Watch:

Toney Douglas did not waste any time making an impact with the Seminoles after transferring from Auburn. The 6-1 junior averaged 12.7 points and 2.9 assists and is a shooting threat from long range. The turnovers were a little high for everybody, but Douglas should be able to keep those numbers down with all the cobwebs gone from sitting out a year. Isaiah Swann can run the show, but most of his damage will be done from behind the arc. Swann and fellow senior guard Jason Rich both averaged 10.3 points per game last year. Rich can hit the outside shot, but unlike Swann, Rich will get to the basket much more consistently. The experience continues on the bench where senior Ralph Mims will find plenty of playing time backing up both guard spots.

Final Projection:

The obvious concern is replacing the production of Thornton, but it is not going to happen. Uche Echefu started all 35 games next to Thornton, and while he is a good rebounder, most of Echefu’s offensive game is on the perimeter. The 6-9 Nigerian native is a decent scorer and improved greatly during his sophomore campaign, but he is not a post player. Casaan Breeden and Ryan Reid have some experience and may step into a starting role, but FSU needs the newcomers to at least provide some production off the bench.

Projected Post-season Tournament: none

Projected Starting Five:

Toney Douglas, Junior, Guard, 12.7 points per game

Isaiah Swann, Senior, Guard, 10.3 points per game

Jason Rich, Senior, Guard, 10.3 points per game

Uche Echefu, Junior, Forward, 6.9 points per game

Solomon Alabi, Freshman, Center, DNP last season

Complete Top 144 Ranking | 2007-08 Preview | Discuss the Preview

Siegel's Take: NBA Draft Small Forward Analysis

Shawn Siegel — Thu, 24 May 2007 08:20:45 -0700

Continuing this week's series of positional analysis, I move on to the small forwards. This is an amazingly deep group of kids. Wilson Chandler, down at #10, is about as talented as the 3rd or 4th best point guard. 1) Kevin Durant - Texas - There's nothing I can say hear that you don't know already. Except for the fact that Durant might be underrated. As a big man, Oden has a chance to be a dynastic, Tim Duncan-like winner. Durant might not win a handful of championships, but he's probably even a bigger lock to be a consistent all-star. 2) Julian Wright - Kansas - I wan't to love Wright.. he's so long, runs so well, does so many things, plays with good intensity. But yet there's a good chance he never develops into anything more than a sixth man. Out of all the small forwards, Wright is perhaps the biggest risk/reward pick. Some team could get burnt taking him Top 10.. or some GM will look like a genius. Its hard to tell. 3) Al Thornton - Florida State - The biggest thing going against Thornton is his age. He's one of the oldest guys in the Draft along with Derrick Byars and Alando Tucker. One of the reasons that the small forward position looks so deep is because you have a lot of long-time, but older college players. The fact is though, that for all the talk about how kids should stay in college, its not like seniors have been dominating the NBA recently. (Perhaps the success of Brandon Roy will change some opinions on this though). Besides age, Thornton's biggest problem is that he's really a power forward in disguise. He dominated at times last year, but did it in large part because of his great physical strength and maturity. These attributes will be evened out in the pros. You have to respect the fact though that he improved every year in college, turning from being a good body into a guy who can hit free throws, jumpers, and ocassionaly take over games. 4) Thaddeus Young - Georgia Tech - Its true Young should go back to school. His freshman year was nice (14 and 5 per game), but he never really played up to the high expectations others put on him (or that he put on himself). Still, he probably has more upside than any small forward prospect outside of Durant. Compared to a guy like Jeff Green below, Young is a much bigger risk, but he also has star potential. To be honest, if your team looks ready to contend this year, take Green or Tucker.. but if you're a forward-looking GM, the smart bet is to take a chance on Young. 5) Jeff Green - Georgetown - Some people see Green as a legitimate top 5 pick. I'm not buying it. Throughout his college career, Green gives you moments where he looks like an NBA player. He'll also give you long stretches where he doesn't do much. Statistically, he never improved in 3 years.. which isn't such a bad thing because his freshman year was so good. Still, I don't ever see Green becoming that much better than he is now. Green is a pro lock.. but a lock to be a complimentary role player. Every team needs good role players, but with a Top 10 pick, don't you at least want to take a chance on drafting a star? Green is no star, which is why I'd probably let him fall more than he will. 6) Alando Tucker - Wisconsin - There's a big drop between Green and Tucker. In fact, the final five guys on this list are all very similar. They all seem destined to be bench players. The problem with Tucker, as noted above, is that he's already 23.. and basically has the body of a small forward. He doesn't have three-point range, can't hit free throws, and though he's a good athlete, his physicality isn't that amazing compared to the other SF prospects. I could easily see Marcus Williams or Wilson Chandler having better careers, but Tucker is more of a lock to come in and contribute right away. Still, he's barely a 1st round talent. 7) Marcus Williams - Arizona - The Wildcats had a pretty mediocre season, and Williams was a big reason why. He always seems to put up numbers, but he never seems to take over games. He's a good athlete, but so is everyone else, so there's nothing to get too excited about in that respect. He's not the strongest guy, so it would be very helpful if he could play the two-guard in the NBA. But he's not the best shooter, and he's not the type of guy you really want with the ball in his hands down the stretch. I see a guy like Antoine Wright barely getting 15 minutes a game for the Nets. What can Williams do that Wright cant? Nothing, which is why Williams seems destined to be an 8th man off the bench. 8) Derrick Byars - Vanderbilt - No player benefitted more from his team's success than Byars. If Vandy had their usual mediocre season, than I can guarantee no one would be considering Byars as a Top 20 pick. To me, he's more of an early second round talent. Even though I have him listed as an SF, he could easily have been on the shooting guard list. In fact, his best bet of sticking as a pro is by using his good, strong body, to lock down shooting guards on defense, and develop his shot enough to be trusted on the perimeter. Still, Byars will never be an NBA starter, and will more likely make it as a deep bench player. 9) Jared Dudley - Boston College - Its funny, no one likes Dudley. He just doesn't have that NBA body and high-flying game that NBA GM's love. But the guy is rock solid. Every year, he puts up numbers, and every year he helps his teams win. Even though he's a senior, he's also well over a year younger than guys like Byars and Tucker. In fact, you have to consider him an older sophomore going by age. Its true, he was really a power forward-type player in college. But no one on this list will outwork Dudley. Considering the fact that guys like Byars and Williams are also future bench players, there's no reason not to put Dudley in this mix as well. Teams will be blinded by those guys better perimeter abilities, but off the bench, you often just need strong, effort guys to come in and mix it up. Dudley could be one of the Draft's surprise performers. 10) Wilson Chandler - DePaul - Chandler reminds me of Brandon Rush in some ways. A kid who I thought would be a stud coming out of high school, but who often times seems to defer to his teammates. Whenever I watched DePaul I'd think, why doesn't this kid shoot the ball twice as much. Its true his perimeter shot is lacking, but he has the tools to get more consistent from outside. Its when Chandler gets into the lane, around the basket, where he really excels though. The problem is that he just didn't get there often enough. Chandler has enough upside to be the 4th or 5th best SF, but he's also by far the least sure thing. Summary: Durant is a stud. Two of Wright, Young, and Thornton will be consistent starters. Green is a lock to be fringe starter, 6th man type player. The other 5 guys on the list are career reserves at best.

Al Thornton: NBA Draft Profile

Jeff Fox — Sun, 15 Apr 2007 07:49:22 -0700

NBA Draft: Al Thornton

College: Florida State

Class: Senior

Stats: ESPN.com

Position: SF/PF

Height: 6”8”

Weight: 220lbs

Accolades: First Team All-ACC (07), Third Team All-American – CHN (07), Third Team All-American – AP (07), Second Team All-American – Rivals.com (07), Second Team All-American – SI.com (07), ACC Second Team All-Tournament (07), Second Team All-ACC (06), Class AAA Honorable Mention All-State – Georgia – high school (02).

Scouting Report: A superb athlete with a NBA-ready body.

Strengths: Big time scorer – averaged just under 20 a game his senior year. Very strong and athletic. Inside/outside threat - can post up smaller men or take bigger guys out on the perimeter. Long arms. Good face up jumper. Shooting range extends to behind the three-point line. Great leaping ability – very explosive. Good free throw shooter.

Weaknesses: A year older than other seniors due to a redshirt season. Turns the ball over too much. Can be foul prone – takes some foolish fouls. Late developer – didn’t make a huge impact his freshman or sophomore years. Game is still raw – can be a little clumsy, drops passes, forces up shots.

Projected 2007 Draft Range: Mid first round pick.

Consensus: Thornton is a NBA-caliber athlete. While his game still needs some work, especially if he is going to play mostly the small forward spot in the NBA, all the tools are there for him to be an above average NBA player.

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