North Carolina

2008-09 All-American Projection: Post-Decision Update

Shawn Siegel — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 08:27:17 -0700

A few days after the 2008 NCAA Championship game, I made an early projection of the 08-09 All-Americans to go along with Top 50 and All-Freshman projections. Now that players have officially entered or withdrawn from the Draft, we have a much better sense of how next year's landscape will look: First Team G - Brandon Jennings - Arizona G - Stephen Curry - Davidson F - Kyle Singler - Duke** F - Luke Harangody - Notre Dame F - Tyler Hansbrough - North Carolina ** Originally, I had slated DJ Augustin into the All-American team. He's been replaced by Singler, who could be a major breakout candidate despite Duke's balanced attack. Second Team G - James Harden - Arizona State G - Darren Collison - UCLA** G - Tyrese Rice - Boston College F - Chase Budinger - Arizona** F - Jon Brockman - Washington ** I thought Collison would go pro, but he returns to form a solid backcourt with Jrue Holiday (though perhaps Holiday will end up stealing Collison's thunder..). Budinger always seems to disappoint, but now that he's back in school, its hard to imagine he wont score 20 ppg next year. Third Team G - AJ Price - UCONN G - Nick Calathes - Florida** G - Demar Derozan - USC** F - Blake Griffin - Oklahoma F - Patrick Patterson - Kentucky ** Trent Plaisted was an original Third Team member, but is now hoping to be a 2nd round pick in next week's Draft. Tyreke Evans was originally in Derozan's place, but the return of Antonio Anderson, Robert Dozier, etc to the Tigers make Evans less likely to put up huge numbers. Fourth Team G - Ty Lawson - UNC** G - Eric Maynor - VCU F - Tyler Smith - Tennessee** F - Terrence Williams - Louisville** C - AJ Ogilvy - Vanderbilt ** Williams was originally on the 2nd Team, but the return of Collison and Lawson knock him down a peg. Smith's return was huge for Tennessee, and he could end up as high as the First Team. Lawson's return was somewhat of a surprise, and he gets slotted into the Third team. Next in Line: Jrue Holiday - UCLA Dominic James - Marquette Hasheem Thabeet - UCONN BJ Mullens - Ohio State Tyreke Evans - Memphis Samardo Samuels - Louisville Looks like a lot of big men get squeezed into the "Next in Line" group. All-American voters are swayed by numbers, and forwards like Brockman and Patterson have a chance to light up the scoreboard in ways that a Thabeet never could.

NBA Draft: Nothing Wrong With Testing the Waters

Jason Brubaker — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 12:57:53 -0700

Nothing wrong with testing the waters..

With the deadline for underclassmen to pull out of the 2008 NBA Draft now passed, it’s time to look at who used, and who was used, by the system, The rule that allows players to “test the waters” has come under fire from some analysts in recent weeks, as players with no business declaring for the Draft have left college coaches and fan bases anxiously awaiting their final decisions.

ESPN’s Jay Bilas even wrote that the “testing the waters” rule needs to be eliminated, feeling that all of the kids who declare do so with the intention of staying in the draft, only returning to school if they were forced to. While I can’t necessarily disagree with that, it’s hard for me to say that the system isn’t working.

To illustrate that, simply look at the list of players returning for another year of school. North Carolina has to be considered the early title favorite, with Wayne Ellington, Ty Lawson and Danny Green all pulling out and returning to Chapel Hill for another season. Now, maybe all of them would have preferred to stay in the Draft, but now they return to school, knowing what they need to work on and where they need to show improvement for the 2009 draft. Where’s the harm in that?

Likewise, Arizona guard Chase Budinger declared for the draft, wasn’t able to get a good read on his stock, and decided to return for his junior season. How this does anything but help him is a mystery to me.

I understand the anxiousness caused by players declaring early, both amongst coaches and fans. North Carolina would have had a drastically different look if their terrific trio elected to stay in the draft, likely having to rely on incoming freshmen to carry a large load. Now, Coach Roy Williams knows he has an experienced, veteran group who enter the season sporting a large target. Not knowing who will be on the team in the fall can drastically alter a coach’s summer plans, be it on the recruiting path or even just in the gym, working out players.

But the rule also allows players to get honest feedback on their Draft status, adding another layer of protection to a high-risk process. Players now can declare, see where they stand, and return to school, having gained a knowledge of the process and an understanding of what they need to work on. If they were simply “in or out”, as some analysts would prefer, more and more players would be sure to slip through the cracks, becoming cautionary tales for future generations, following in the tradition of players like Omar Cook and Joe Forte. The draft is a risky endeavor for all parties, and any way to reduce that risk should be encouraged.

The system also is great for players at lower-profile schools, such as Lester Hudson at UT-Martin. A terrific scorer, Hudson was able to test his skills against a higher caliber of players than he faced during the season, giving him a better feel for his own skill set. Although he showed some potential, the process exposed holes in his game that he might never otherwise have found, and he returns to school a better player because of it. His name is also going to be on scouts’ radar all year now, and he has a chance to be a first-round pick in 2009.

I understand the process now encourages players who have no business declaring to give it a shot, hoping to catch fire in a couple workouts and convince a team to take a shot (i.e. Ronald Steele). But if the thought behind wanting to eliminate the rule is wanting to eliminate bad decisions…well that’s just not going to happen. Today’s players have too many friends, family members, runners, etc. whispering in their ears, telling them how good they are, and sad as it may be, that’s not changing anytime soon.

But as it stands now, kids are allowed to make a poor choice, and then reverse it. Today’s players can use the system to their advantage, and many of them did this year. There will always be poor decisions made by players who overestimate their own skill set – that’s not going to change no matter how many rules are put in place. IUPUI’s George Hill and USC’s Davon Jefferson, in my opinion, made poor choices staying in the draft, as neither will likely be a first rounder. But for guys like Hudson, Steele, the UNC trio, Budinger, Jeremy Pargo, Lee Cummard, Robert Dozier…the system worked great, and they will be better players because of it.

Ellington, Lawson, Green to Return to UNC?

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 16 Jun 2008 11:47:50 -0700

FoxSports.com is reporting that three Tar Heels, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, and Danny Green will forego the NBA Draft and return to school. The article mentions multiple unnamed sources who confirm that neither player received a First Round promise, and thus decided to give college another go. Along with the return of Tyler Hansbrough, North Carolina now returns one of the most experienced and talented rosters in NCAA basketball.

Underclassmen have until 5:00 PM on Monday to officially decide their 2008 NBA Draft fate.

Links: NBA Draft | NBA Teams | Mock Draft | Draft History

NBA Finals: Monday is Underclassmen Deadline

Jeff Borzello — Mon, 16 Jun 2008 09:18:46 -0700

Despite the fact today at 5:00 p.m. EST is the deadline for underclassmen to withdraw their names from the NBA Draft, there were still 20 players who had yet to make a final decision heading into yesterday afternoon. While some players are expected to withdraw and others are almost guaranteed to stay in, there are also several prospects who are completely up in the air. What is the latest word on each of the 20 remaining underclassmen without an agent? Let's take a look.

A.J. Abrams, Texas: Has not decided yet, but will make his final choice today. (Austin American-Statesman)

Josh Akognon, Cal State Fullerton: No word from him, but signs point to him staying in the Draft.

Joe Alexander, West Virginia: Has signed with agent Doug Neustadt; will not return to school. (FOXSports.com)

Ryan Anderson, California: Entirely up in the air; said last Tuesday he was nowhere near a decision. (ESPN.com)

Chase Budinger, Arizona: Said he has received "good enough" feedback to justify staying in Draft. (Arizona Daily Star)

Mario Chalmers, Kansas: Informed coaching staff he was staying in the draft. (Kansas City Star)

Lee Cummard, BYU: Coach Dave Rose said Cummard has decided to return to school. (ESPN.com)

Robert Dozier, Memphis: Coach John Calipari expects Dozier to come back to school. (Memphis Commercial Appeal)

Wayne Ellington, North Carolina: Will make decision today; no indication of where he is currently leaning. (Raleigh News & Observer)

Jamont Gordon, Mississippi State: As good as gone. For weeks, he and his people have been saying that he is likely staying in the Draft.

Danny Green, North Carolina: Was supposed to talk to coach Roy Williams Sunday, but meeting has been postponed until today. Said he will make his decision after talking to Williams. His father announced that he would be staying in school, and Danny also said he was likely returning.(Raleigh News & Observer, Fayetteville Observer, FOXSports.com).

Richard Hendrix, Alabama: Has not announced his decision, and was still working out with teams this weekend. (The Huntsville Times)

J.J. Hickson, North Carolina State: Officially announced on Sunday that he was staying in the Draft. (Scout.com)

Lester Hudson, Tennessee-Martin: Met with his coaches this weekend to make a final decision; said if he was projected to be drafted in the first 35 picks, he would leave. (Jackson Sun)

Ty Lawson, North Carolina: Has not made a decision yet, and will announce final choice today. Originally looked like he would stay in the Draft, but developments over the last couple of weeks have clouded the picture. (Winston-Salem Journal)

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, UCLA: Has not reached a decision yet. It seems like he wants to stay in the Draft, but might not get feedback he needs to justify that decision.

Jeremy Pargo, Gonzaga: No indication as to which way he is leaning; coach Mark Few does not know what Pargo will do.

Ronald Steele, Alabama: After the back-and-forth announcements that occurred a couple of weeks ago, there has not been much talk about him. He was still working out for teams this weekend, and will announce his decision today. (The Huntsville Times)

Robert Vaden, UAB: Coach Mike Davis said Vaden is 50/50 on staying in the Draft. He has a final workout today with Detroit, and will likely make a decision after that. (ESPN.com)

Bill Walker, Kansas State: Might be the most interesting case of them all. It looked like he was going to stay in the Draft; coach Frank Martin said he was not expecting Walker to return to school. However, Walker injured his right knee this weekend and will need an MRI. Will not make a decision until just before the deadline today. (FOXSports.com, ESPN.com)

- By Jeff Borzello, March Madness All Season

Waiting Game: Team Futures Hinge on Key Decisions

Jason Brubaker — Fri, 30 May 2008 09:51:59 -0700

To stay or go: Futures Hinge on Player Decisions

Even with the draft order now set, and player workouts getting underway, it’s still tough to predict which players will ultimately stay in the draft this year. According to ESPN’s Chad Ford, 69 underclassmen declared for the draft this year, including surprises like Oregon State’s CJ Giles, who has now been kicked off two college teams, and Alabama’s Ronald Steele, who didn’t even play last season due to injury.

But while it was a no-brainer for guys like Michael Beasley, Derrick Rose and OJ Mayo to declare and sign with an agent, other players are on the dreaded bubble about staying in. While they struggle with their decision and try to improve their stock through workouts, their college teammates and coaches are sitting at home, wondering if they’ll be back. Here’s a look at some teams who are anxiously awaiting decisions from key players.*

*Players have not signed with an agent as of May 29

North Carolina

Waiting on: Wayne Ellington, Danny Green, Ty Lawson

Perhaps no team stands to gain as much should all of their players decide to return. With National POY Tyler Hansbrough already coming back, the return of starters Deon Thompson and Marcus Ginyard, and a terrific three-man recruiting class on the way, the Heels will be good no matter what. But the return of these three puts the Heels on the short list of national title contenders next year. Looking through various mock drafts, none of the three are first-round locks, and all could stand to improve through another year in college. Lawson is rumored to be the most likely to stay in the draft, meaning UNC better hope Bobby Frasor’s is ready to play next year. Green and Ellington are both likely to return, as both could climb into the first round next year in what is thought to be a weaker draft class. Should any or all of these guys come back, look for Carolina to begin the year atop the polls.

Alabama

Waiting on: Richard Hendrix, Ronald Steele

The Tide already received one break when ultra-athletic forward Alonzo Gee pulled his name out of the draft. Now, they’re just hoping for the same thing from Hendrix and Steele, both of whom would be better suited to return to school. As previously noted, Steele didn’t even play last season because of a knee injury, so declaring for the draft seemed like a bit of a stretch. When healthy, he’s one of the better point guards in the country, but he needs to show he is fully recovered. Hendrix is a beast down low, but he’s a bit small for the power forward position in the NBA. It’s conceivable that he could climb into the mid-late first round with solid workouts, but another year of college ball would help him expand his offensive game. However, he has nothing to lose by declaring and getting some feedback from NBA scouts, so it was a wise decision on his part. If both players return, the Tide will challenge for the SEC West title next year.

UCLA

Waiting on: Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Josh Shipp, Russell Westbrook

Bruins’ fans know that Westbrook is likely as good as gone, as he’s projected as lottery pick after his breakout sophomore season. It would be a shock to see him back in Westwood next year. However, Shipp and Mbah a Moute both could return, giving the Bruins some veteran experience to go with a stellar recruiting class. Mbah a Moute can still play himself into the first round with a strong draft camp. He’s got the versatility that scouts like, but his game could still use more polish, especially on the offensive end. Shipp is a long shot to be drafted, and he almost certainly will return for his senior year. A solid shooter with good athleticism, he’s battled injuries and inconsistency his entire career, and a big senior season could go a long way toward erasing that. With Darren Collison coming back, the return of these two would make the Bruins a safe bet for another Final Four trip.

Kansas

Waiting on: Mario Chalmers

The Jayhawks knew they’d be looking at a different team next year after winning the title this year. But should Chalmers decide to keep his name in the draft, the only returning players of any significance would be Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich. Seniors Russell Robinson, Sasha Kaun and Darnell Jackson are all gone, and underclassmen Brandon Rush and Darrell Arthur will stay in the draft. Chalmers, the hero of the national title game, is on the first round bubble, and likely would be a second round pick. He’s not a pure point guard, and could use his senior year to show off his playmaking skills. He’s a terrific on-the-ball defender and has a high basketball IQ, so it’s not inconceivable that a team drafting late in the first round could take a chance. But KU fans would love to see him back in Lawrence to help the growing pains of a young team.

Kansas State

Waiting on: Bill Walker

The Wildcats knew they’d only have Beasley for one season, but losing Walker at the same time would hurt just as much. Walker didn’t have quite the same impact as Beasley, but he’s a still a fantastic athlete who is capable of putting up 20 points when he wanted. Unfortunately for K-State, Walker has looked great in workouts, and he’s likely going to stay in the draft. He reportedly has lost the extra weight that plagued him after his surgery, and his jaw-dropping explosiveness is back. He likely will be a mid-late first round pick, and could end up being a steal going that late. If he does return, he would be a big asset for Frank Martin’s team, who will be looking for a consistent scoring threat. But without Walker or Beasley, K-State will once again be looking up at the Big 12’s elite teams.

Others

Arizona: Chase Budinger

He’s considered a late lottery pick, so it’ll be a surprise if he returns. Although he rarely dominated games the way his talent allowed him to, he still was a great player and his return, along with the addition of PG Brandon Jennings, would help the Wildcats climb back to the top of the Pac 10 after a rocky season.

West Virginia: Joe Alexander

Like Budinger, Alexander is unlikely to return to school, after finishing a strong season by leading WVU to the Sweet 16. A terrific athlete with good size for the small forward position, he’s on the lottery bubble, and could even climb near the top 10 with good workouts. Without him, the Mountaineers will find last year’s run hard to duplicate.

Cal: Ryan Anderson

New coach Mike Montgomery would love the chance to coach the versatile Anderson, who is considered a late first rounder right now. A power forward with a sweet shooting stroke would certainly help the Bears next season as they try to forget a disappointing 2007-08 season. Anderson could climb the boards with good workouts, but look for him to return.

Florida: Marreese Speights

Speights is considered a mid-late first rounder right now, and word is that he’s likely to stay in the draft. Speights has great talent, but his conditioning and work ethic are questionable, and he often found himself in Coach Billy Donovan’s doghouse last year. With big men Kenny Kadji and Eloy Vargas coming in next year as part of a five-man recruiting class, the Gators should be able to move on without a ton of adjustment.

Ty Lawson: NBA Draft Profile

Jeff Fox — Thu, 08 May 2008 08:45:20 -0700

Ty Lawson

College: North Carolina

Class: Sophomore

Position: PG

Height: 5’11”

Weight: 195bs

Accolades: Honorable Mention All-ACC (08), First Team ACC All-Tournament Team (07), ACC All-Freshman Team (07), Third Team CHN All-Freshman Team (07), First Team USA Today All-American – high school (06), McDonald’s All-American – high school (06), First Team Parade All-American – high school (06), MVP World Juniors Tournament (05).

Scouting Report: An undersized, lightning quick point guard.

Strengths: Blazing speed – will normally be the fastest guy on the floor. Can beat the other team up the floor on fast breaks or beat his man off the dribble in the half court. Excellent passer and distributor of the ball. Takes very good care of the basketball – had a 2.57 assist to turnover ratio his freshman year and 2.36 his sophomore year. Great court vision. Very poised despite his lack of experience. Very strong build. Shoots for an extremely high percentage for a point guard – 50% his freshman year, 51.5% this past year. Decent rebounder for a sub-six footer. Gets his share of steals.

Weaknesses: Very short for the NBA. Can hit the three but will need to hit it more consistently in the NBA. Still young and inexperienced for a point guard – only averaged about 25 minutes a game both years in college and missed games his sophomore year due to injury.

Projected 2008 Draft Range: Mid first round to early second round pick.

Consensus: Lawson’s been a dynamic player at every level he has competed at so far and his poise, court vision and speed will translate well to the NBA. However the learning curve in the NBA for an undersized, inexperienced point guard is a steep one.

Stats: http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/player/profile?playerId=31608

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Wayne Ellington: NBA Draft Profile

Jeff Fox — Tue, 06 May 2008 07:51:26 -0700

Wayne Ellington

College: North Carolina

Class: Sophomore

Position: SG

Height: 6’4”

Weight: 200lbs

Accolades: First Team ACC All-Tournament (08), Second Team All-ACC (08), First Team ACC All-Tournament Team (07), Honorable Mention All-Freshman Team – CHN (07), Second Team USA Today All-American – high school (06), McDonald’s All-American – high school (06).

Scouting Report: The latest in a long line of explosive Tar Heel shooting guards.

Strengths: Explosive scorer – had nine 20-plus point games his sophomore year. Good three-point shooter – hit two a game this past year and shot 40% from deep. Improved his defense this season (according to his coach). Great crossover move. Great athlete – can get out and run and has good ups. Gets good extension and lift on his jumper. Very good rebounder for a two-guard. Exceptional free throw shooter.

Weaknesses: Will be a bit undersized in the NBA. Not a very good ball-handler. Will need to keep improving his defense for the NBA. Is still inconsistent.