Bracketology

Poll: How Many WCC Teams Will Make the 2009 Tournament?

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 06:52:16 -0700

Poll: How Many A10 Teams Will Make the 2009 NCAA Tournament?

Shawn Siegel — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 10:47:25 -0700

Poll: How Many MVC Teams Will Make the NCAA Tournament

Shawn Siegel — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 08:03:59 -0700

2009 NCAA Tournament Projection: Late Summer Update

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 09 Sep 2008 10:49:51 -0700

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A day after the National Title Game, I took an early stab at projecting the 2009 NCAA Tournament.. and then following the official decisions of Draft prospects, it was time for another update.. and now that the off-season has shaken itself out and kids are heading to class.. its time for the third and final summer update.

Changes Are in Red:

Temple replaces New Mexico State - Potential Aggies star Herb Pope transferred to Seton Hall. His departure, along with Passos and Hawkins means there's just not enough returning talent left. Temple is arguably the top team in the A-10 and slides into an at-large bid in my projection.

Southern Illinois replaces Drake - No real news affected this pick. And in fact, SIU just lost Joshua Bone who played significant minutes last year. But, I'm hearing that SIU's rookies are the real deal, and I'm not sold on Drake being anything more than a one year wonder.

Washington replaces Stanford - This was actually a mistake from the last article.. with both Lopez bros in the NBA, the Cardinal lack a serious frontcourt presence. But I still think they'll be better than many expect. Washington was my last team out in the last update, so was an obvious choice to make it instead.

North Dakota State replaces IUPUI - The Summit league champs were switched because on the day I put the previous list together, I hadn't heard yet that George Hill was off to the NBA.

Multi-Bid Leagues (45)
Big East (9) - UCONN - (Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia)
ACC (6) - UNC - (Clemson, Duke, Miami, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest)
Pac-10 (5) - UCLA - (Arizona, Arizona State, USC, Washington)
Big 12 (5) - Kansas - (Baylor, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M)
Big Ten (4) - Purdue - (Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin)

SEC (4) - Florida (Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee)

A-10 (3) - Xavier - (Dayton, Temple)
Mountain West (2) - UNLV - (BYU)
Missouri Valley (2) - Creighton - (Southern Illinois)
Conference USA (2) - Memphis - (UAB)
WCC (2) - Gonzaga - (Saint Mary's)

One-Bid Leagues (20)
America East - Vermont
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
Big Sky - Portland State
Big South - Winthrop
Big West - Pacific
CAA - VCU
Horizon - Wright State
Ivy - Cornell
MAAC - Siena
MAC - Kent State
MEAC - Morgan State
Northeast - Robert Morris
Ohio Valley - Murray State
Patriot - American
Southern - Davidson
Southland - Stephen F Austin
SWAC - Alabama State
Summit - North Dakota State
Sun Belt - MTSU

WAC - Nevada

Last Five In: Southern Illinois, Missouri, West Virginia, Texas A&M, Ohio State

Next In Line: Washington State, New Mexico, San Diego, San Diego State, Alabama

Out: Drake, IUPUI, New Mexico State, Stanford

Out in 2nd Update: Mississippi State

Also: Check out last year's projection which had some good, bad, and ugly picks.

2009 NCAA Tournament Projection: Post-Decision Update

Shawn Siegel — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 07:56:24 -0700

One day after the National Title Game, I took an early stab at projecting the 2009 NCAA Tournament. Now that pro prospects have officially decided their NBA Draft fate, and with our 2008-09 Preview starting in a couple weeks, its a good time to once again take a look at next year's Dance.

Changes Are in Red: The return of Lawson, Ellington, and co. pushes UNC into first place in the ACC. In the MWC, there's also a switch in position as UNLV takes the lead due to Trent Plaisted's departure (these two teams are very close still). Surprisingly, the only change in the Field of 65 is Mississippi State dropping out due to Jamont Gordon's departure, and being replaced Missouri. More movement will take place in a new Preseason Top 50 I'm working on now..

Multi-Bid Leagues (46)
Big East (9) - UCONN - (Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia)
ACC (6) - UNC - (Clemson, Duke, Miami, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest)
Pac-10 (5) - UCLA - (Arizona, Arizona State, Stanford, USC)
Big 12 (5) - Kansas - (Baylor, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M)
Big Ten (4) - Purdue - (Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin)

SEC (4) - Florida (Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee)
Mountain West (2) - UNLV - (BYU)
A-10 (2) - Xavier - (Dayton)
Missouri Valley (2) - Creighton - (Drake)
Conference USA (2) - Memphis - (UAB)
WCC (2) - Gonzaga - (Saint Mary's)
WAC (2) - Nevada - (New Mexico State)

One-Bid Leagues (19)
America East - Vermont
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
Big Sky - Portland State
Big South - Winthrop
Big West - Pacific
CAA - VCU
Horizon - Wright State
Ivy - Cornell
MAAC - Siena
MAC - Kent State
MEAC - Morgan State
Northeast - Robert Morris
Ohio Valley - Murray State
Patriot - American
Southern - Davidson
Southland - Stephen F Austin
SWAC - Alabama State
Summit - IUPUI
Sun Belt - MTSU

Out: Mississippi State

Last Five In: New Mexico State, Missouri, Texas A&M, Ohio State, Drake

Next In Line: Washington, Temple, Washington State, San Diego, San Diego State

Also: Check out last year's projection which had some good, bad, and ugly picks.

Humbling: CHN's Editor Laments His Horrible Picks..

Shawn Siegel — Fri, 21 Mar 2008 18:49:20 -0700

Humbling.. That's the best way to describe this year's tournament. Somewhere out there, some lucky fella is boasting about getting 30 first round games right.. who knows, maybe that fella is you. But for little ole me.. the only thing I can boast about is last year. 13 of 16 Sweet Sixteen picks wasn't bad in last year's Official CHN prediction.. I thought 7 of 8 Elite Eight teams was solid as well. Nailing the finals last year wasn't shocking, but it was still correct. But this year the castle of self-confidence is crumbling around me. Do I really know nothing about college basketball? Temple. Was I serious? The Owls looked lost against MSU, like they were just in a practice walk-through for the real thing.. St. Joseph's. Pat Calathes fell asleep in the A10 title game, but I figured he would wake up a week later. I guess I was wrong. Winthrop. For a half this looked smart.. until the Eagles scored 11 points in the second half. 11. Seriously. Kent State. Jeez. And I thought Winthrop's 11 point half was bad. The MAC champs put up a 10 spot. USC. Don't get me started here. Sure, they could beat Wisconsin in the 2nd round.. if they didn't get killed in the first round. BYU. More like Bye Bye U.. See you next year. Gonzaga. Ugh. How many more years will it take before this team stops choking away leads in the 2nd half. Saint Mary's. Christ. How did the WCC get three teams in? The Gaels were up 5 at half.. until Jack McClinton beat them, by himself. Oregon. They couldn't even beat Saint Mary's. That should have been a sign. I thought the A10 had a bad showing, but how bout the Pac-10.. Oregon, Arizona, USC bowing out early. I guess there is no East Coast bias after all. Vanderbilt. Everybody on the CHN Message Board said Siena would win, everybody. Maybe they should run this site. Drake. How bout Adam Emmenecker gets over himself, stops doing interviews, and actually hits a shot (he was 0 for 10). No doubt things will only get worse.. my grandma will win the family pool, my ex-girlfriend probably picked Siena, my nephew no doubt had Western Kentucky in the Sweet Sixteen, the neighbor's pet knew that Temple was a fraud. Oh well.. at least fantasy baseball starts up soon, maybe I should run a baseball site..

Bracketology: What Should Have Been

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 19:51:52 -0700

All season long with Daily Bracketology I project what the selection committee would do. And now we know what they did do. But what about what they should have done. Taking the 65 teams that made the Big Dance, here is the field that I would have created with actual seed in parentheses.

ONE

North Carolina* (1)

Memphis* (1)

UCLA* (1)

Kansas* (1)

TWO

Tennessee (2)

Texas (2)

Georgetown (2)

Wisconsin* (3)

THREE

Duke (2)

Xavier (3)

Stanford (3)

Drake* (5)

FOUR

Pittsburgh (4)

Louisville (3)

UCONN (4)

Butler* (7)

FIVE

Vanderbilt (4)

Clemson (5)

Washington State (4)

Notre Dame (5)

SIX

Michigan State (5)

Marquette (6)

USC (6)

Indiana (8)

SEVEN

Purdue (6)

Arkansas (9)

West Virginia (7)

Gonzaga (7)

EIGHT

Miami (FL) (7)

Oklahoma (6)

BYU (8)

Kent State* (9)

NINE

Mississippi State (8)

UNLV* (8)

Texas A&M (9)

Saint Mary's (10)

TEN

South Alabama (10)

Kansas State (11)

St. Joseph's (11)

Kentucky (11)

ELEVEN

Temple* (12)

Baylor (11)

Villanova (12)

Oregon (9)

TWELVE

Davidson* (10)

Arizona (10)

Western Kentucky* (12)

George Mason* (12)

THIRTEEN

San Diego* (13)

Oral Roberts* (13)

Cornell* (14)

Georgia* (14)

FOURTEEN

Winthrop* (13)

Boise State* (14)

Siena* (13)

Belmont* (15)

FIFTEEN

Austin Peay* (15)

CS Fullerton* (14)

American* (15)

UMBC* (15)

SIXTEEN + ONE

Portland State* (16)

UT-Arlington* (16)

Mount St Mary's* (P-I Game)

Coppin State* (P-I Game) / Mississippi Valley St* (16)

* = Conference champion

Bracketology Leaderboard: CHN Tops National Experts!

Press Release — Mon, 17 Mar 2008 13:20:28 -0700

CollegeHoops.net Dominates Bracketology Leaderboard

From big names like ESPN's Joe Lunardi and Gary Parrish of CBS to small mom and pop blogs, dozens of sites feature so-called "Bracketology" experts. But according to the ranking of 53 leading experts by The Bracket Project, no one fared better than CHN experts Shawn Siegel & Jeff Borzello.

The Bracket Project compiles every expert's projections in their Bracket Matrix and then ranks them according to various criteria. According to the 2 most prevalent scoring rubrics, both Siegel and Borzello were in the Top 3 of all 53 national experts.

Siegel, who makes his Daily Bracketology selections at CHN, excelled by picking all 65 tournament teams.. just one of 4 experts in the country to do so (including Joe Lunardi of ESPN, and the guys at Bracketology3 & BracketDobber.)

Meanwhile, Jeff Borzello, who runs the March Madness All Season blog on CHN, led the entire country by nailing 41 of the 65 teams at exactly the right seed. This surpassed Bracketology 101's 40 correct seeds, and Siegel's 37. (Lunardi only had 29 right, while Parrish had 33)

In the all important, teams projected within one of their actual seed, Siegel & Borzello tied with 59 teams within one spot, just one of the leaders who had 60.

Finally, according to the two overall scoring rubricks (one preferred by Parrish on CBS and the other Paymon method), Borzello's bracket was the best in the country. He tied for the lead in the Parrish method (with Bracketology 101), while leading the Paymon method. Siegel finished 3rd in both methods.. not quite up to Borzello's lofty dominance, but still an impressive performance.

Overall, it was an impressive performance by your friends at CollegeHoops.net!

▪ Brackets

▪ Prediction

▪ CHN's Free 2008 Bracket Challenge

Bracketology Review: Dominating Lunardi

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 16 Mar 2008 19:39:26 -0700

Bracketology Review

After months of projecting the field.. its fun to see how I actually did. All in all, not a bad effort. I picked all 65 teams properly.. and just Oregon & Indiana were off by more than 2 seeds. My last minute change this afternoon of Pitt to a 3 instead of Louisville backfired.. as did moving Wisconsin ahead of Duke. The committee apparently didn't care that much about conference titles. Somewhere out there in cyberspace, someone will rank all the "experts" fields.. so we'll see how I fared against everyone else (though as usual, I dominated Lunardi).

ONE

North Carolina =

Memphis =

UCLA =

Kansas =

TWO

Tennessee =

Texas =

Wisconsin off 1 (3)

Georgetown =

THREE

Duke off 1 (2)

Stanford =

Xavier =

Pittsburgh off 1 (4)

FOUR

Louisville off 1 (3)

Drake* off 1 (5)

UCONN =

Clemson off 1 (5)

FIVE

Butler off 2 (7)

Notre Dame =

Vanderbilt off 1 (4)

Indiana off 3 (8)

SIX

Michigan State off 1 (5)

Washington State off 2 (4)

Marquette =

Purdue =

SEVEN

Arkansas off 2 (9)

USC off 1 (6)

West Virginia =

Gonzaga =

EIGHT

Oklahoma off 2 (6)

UNLV =

BYU =

Miami (FL) off 2 (7)

NINE

Mississippi State off 1 (8)

Texas A&M =

Kent State =

Davidson off 1 (10)

TEN

Kansas State off 1 (11)

Saint Mary's =

South Alabama =

Kentucky off 1 (11)

ELEVEN

Temple off 1 (12)

Baylor =

St. Joseph's =

Arizona off 1 (10)

TWELVE

Western Kentucky =

Villanova =

Oregon off 3 (9)

George Mason =

THIRTEEN

Georgia off 1 (14)

San Diego =

Oral Roberts =

Cornell off 1 (14)

FOURTEEN

Siena off 1 (13)

Winthrop off 1 (13)

Boise State =

Belmont off 1 (15)

FIFTEEN

Austin Peay =

CS Fullerton off 1 (14)

American =

UMBC =

SIXTEEN + ONE

Portland State =

UT-Arlington =

Mississippi Valley St =

Coppin State / Mount St Mary's =

Final Bracketology: 2008 NCAA Tournament Projection

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 16 Mar 2008 14:41:50 -0700

This is the final Daily Bracketology edition of the year.. with less than an hour remaining before the Selection Show. It takes into account every game of the season.. and updates this morning's version.

Kansas most likely locked up a #1 seed by beating Texas in the Big 12 title game. This knocks Tennessee down to a 2. After beating Illinois today, Wisconsin moves more firmly into the 2 pod. I've wavered the last 24 hours on this, but ultimately I moved Georgetown up to a 2 seed in place of Duke. My thinking here is that the committee will focus on the last 12 games, though I think Duke's overall resume is more impressive. Clemson also moved into a 4 seed, knocking Notre Dame down. The decision to knock down ND instead of UCONN was a close one as well. And then you have Georgia.. Georgia making the NCAA Tournament?! I have them in as the Top 13 seed. The Bulldogs win knocked out Illinois State, and allowed George Mason to improve to a 12.

Down on the bubble, Arizona slid a couple more spots, but still remains an 11 in my projection. Finally, UTA locked up a tourney bid.. and the NCAA announced that Coppin State will face Mount St. Mary's in the play-in game.

ONE

North Carolina*

Memphis*

UCLA*

Kansas*

TWO

Tennessee

Texas

Wisconsin*

Georgetown

THREE

Duke

Stanford

Xavier

Pittsburgh*

FOUR

Louisville

Drake*

UCONN

Clemson

FIVE

Butler*

Notre Dame

Vanderbilt

Indiana

SIX

Michigan State

Washington State

Marquette

Purdue

SEVEN

Arkansas*

USC

West Virginia

Gonzaga

EIGHT

Oklahoma

UNLV*

BYU

Miami (FL)

NINE

Mississippi State

Texas A&M

Kent State*

Davidson*

TEN

Kansas State

Saint Mary's

South Alabama

Kentucky

ELEVEN

Temple*

Baylor

St. Joseph's

Arizona

TWELVE

Western Kentucky*

Villanova

Oregon

George Mason*

THIRTEEN

Georgia*

San Diego*

Oral Roberts*

Cornell*

FOURTEEN

Siena*

Winthrop*

Boise State*

Belmont*

FIFTEEN

Austin Peay*

CS Fullerton*

American*

UMBC*

SIXTEEN + ONE

Portland State*

UT-Arlington*

Mississippi Valley St*

Coppin State* / Mount St Mary's*

* = Conference champion

Bold = Tournament Bid

League Winners (31)

America East - UMBC

A-10 - Temple

ACC - North Carolina

Atlantic Sun - Belmont

Big 12 - Kansas

Big East - Pittsburgh

Big Sky - Portland State

Big South - Winthrop

Big Ten - Wisconsin

Big West - CS Fullerton

CAA - George Mason

Conference USA - Memphis

Horizon - Butler

Ivy - Cornell

MAAC - Siena

MAC - Kent State

MEAC - Coppin State

MVC - Drake

MWC - UNLV

Northeast - Mount St Mary's

Ohio Valley - Austin Peay

Pac-10 - UCLA

Patriot - American

SEC - Georgia

Southern - Davidson

Southland - UT-Arlington

SWAC - Mississippi Valley State

Summit - Oral Roberts

Sun Belt - Western Kentucky

WAC - Boise State

WCC - San Diego

Last In: Saint Joseph's, Arizona, Villanova, Oregon

Last Out: Illinois State, Ohio State, Virginia Tech, Arizona State

- Check out yesterday's Daily Bracketology to compare the subtle changes.

- I've added the Early Bird Prediction: #3.. a filled in tournament bracket based on current Bracketology!

- Finally, sign up for our free Bracket Contest and see if you can beat me in the final standings!