Game of the Week

Game of the Week: #1 UNC at #6 Duke

Jeff Borzello — Fri, 07 Mar 2008 18:06:04 -0800

Game of the Week: No. 1 North Carolina at No. 6 Duke (Saturday, ESPN, 9:00 PM)

With conference tournaments starting this week, March Madness is officially here. Bubble teams are making last-minute statements to the committee, automatic bids are being handed out, and conference races are coming down to the wire. However, before Championship Week gets underway for every conference, there is still business to be decided in the major conferences. This weekend features several key games, including Louisville and Georgetown facing off for the Big East crown, UAB hoping to get a marquee win at Memphis, and several other quality contests. But the best is the rivalry of all rivalries -- Duke and North Carolina. Both teams are atop the ACC and are fighting for not only the conference title but also a No. 1 seed in the Charlotte region come Selection Sunday. Separated by only eight miles and a few shades of blue, the battle for Tobacco Road should be a good one.

North Carolina Team Breakdown

North Carolina came into the season as one of the top candidates for preseason No. 1 and the national championship – and it has not disappointed so far. The Tar Heels are 28-2, with the lone losses both coming at home. One was a two-point defeat at the hands of Maryland, and the other was the first match-up against Duke – without Ty Lawson. UNC owns wins the most top-100 wins in the country, with 16, including victories over Clemson (twice), BYU, Kent State, Miami (Fl.), Davidson, Kentucky and Ohio State. The Tar Heels are ranked No. 2 in offensive efficiency and No. 26 in defensive efficiency.

North Carolina is led by one of the best players in the country, junior big man Tyler Hansbrough. The All-America is a dominant big man who has taken his game to another level this season, scoring at least 17 points in all but five games this year. He is also averaging over 28 points per game over his last seven contests. He is an efficient scorer who is also a relentless rebounder that can convert in a variety of ways. Starting next to him is Deon Thompson. The 6-8 sophomore has shown flashes of his potential times this season, but has struggled mightily lately. Swingman Danny Green started earlier in the year at the power forward position, but he has become one of the best sixth men in the country. Marcus Ginyard starts at small forward. He is a tremendous defensive player who can guard nearly any position on the floor with his length and athleticism. Alex Stepheson comes off the bench down low.

In the backcourt are sophomores Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington. Lawson might be the fastest player in college basketball with the ball in his hands, and he has the ability to score and distribute the ball in traffic and in transition for easy baskets. However, he missed six games with a high ankle sprain and is not yet at full-strength. In his absence, senior Quentin Thomas did an admirable job of filling in. He is very quick, but is at times careless and out-of-control with the ball. He became more comfortable the more he played, though, and averaged 6.7 assists in the six games Lawson missed. Ellington will start no matter what. He is a tremendous shooter and scorer who can make shots from anywhere on the court, from deep beyond the arc or in the mid-range. He is also heating up at the right time, averaging nearly 21 points per game over his last six contests.

Duke Team Breakdown

Duke has bounced back from a disappointing season last year, in which it was knocked out in the first round of the NCAA Tournament by Eric Maynor and Virginia Commonwealth. The Blue Devils have just three losses on the season, a one-point defeat at the hands of Pittsburgh when Levance Fields hit a step-back three with three seconds remaining, as well as back-to-back losses a couple of weeks ago at Wake Forest and Miami (Fl.). Duke owns impressive victories over North Carolina, Wisconsin, Marquette, Clemson and nearly everyone else in its path. Duke is ranked No. 6 in offensive efficiency and No. 9 in defensive efficiency – indicative of its tremendous balance at both ends of the floor.

Duke’s success starts on the perimeter, where it boasts one of the deepest and most talented set of wings and guards in the country. Five players rotate in and out of the game, with all five averaging at least 15 minutes and 6.5 points per game. Gerald Henderson and DeMarcus Nelson lead the way on the wings. Henderson has developed into one of the premier perimeter players in the ACC. He is extremely talented and athletic, and has finally been given a chance to showcase that. Nelson has developed greatly since he arrived in Durham, and is the team’s leading scorer, and is second in rebounds and assists. Greg Paulus starts at the point. The oft-criticized junior, despite his quickness and defensive deficiencies, is a solid leader that takes care of the ball and shoots the three. Jon Scheyer started last year, but comes off the bench this season and has developed into one of the best sixth men in the country. Nolan Smith backs up Paulus.

Up front, Kyle Singler has been one of the most impressive freshmen in the country. He is very difficult to guard, due to his ability to shoot the three, score inside and create plays off the dribble. He is fundamentally sound and forces match-up problems for nearly any defender. Lance Thomas starts at the five, but he’s more of an athletic forward who can run the floor and finish. Taylor King, who comes off the bench, is one of the best three-point shooters in the country. If he is open from anywhere on the court, he will take a shot. David McClure is a decent role player, and Brian Zoubek adds size.

Game Analysis and Prediction

Although Duke vs. North Carolina is always one of the best games on the college basketball schedule during the last weekend of the regular-season, this game has taken on added importance as it pits two of the top teams in the country against each other. Both squads are fighting for the top seed in the Charlotte region – and any other region, for that matter – in the NCAA Tournament as well as the always-coveted ACC regular-season title. Both teams like to push the ball and get transition baskets, but are also comfortable in a half-court set. Duke pressures the ball defensively with its stable of athletic perimeter players, forcing its opponent into turnovers and mistakes. At the other end, the Blue Devils spread the floor and create match-up problems because of the number of players that can shoot the three or take their defender off the dribble. North Carolina is one of the best offensive teams in the country, with the ability to knock down perimeter shots or throw it inside to Hansbrough and get baskets. Defensively, though, the Tar Heels have struggled at times, as they have given up at least 80 points on nine occasions this year.

If Duke is going to win the ACC and pull off the season sweep of North Carolina, it needs to do several things. First, it needs to take advantage of its perimeter depth and spread the floor in order to create mismatches across the board offensively. Kyle Singler can drag either Deon Thompson or Tyler Hansbrough away from the basket, and then take them off the dribble for easy baskets. If Danny Green comes in to play the four for UNC, Singler will have more than a three-inch height advantage. Also, Duke will have to take exceptional care of the ball against North Carolina’s perimeter ball pressure. Greg Paulus and Nolan Smith have done a good job of that this season, but will need to continue to do that if the Blue Devils have a chance of winning. UNC is not the best defensive team around, obviously, and Duke will have to make them play defense. Turnovers lead to easy baskets and momentum for North Carolina – exactly what Duke can’t afford. Defensively, Duke will have to stop Tyler Hansbrough. The Blue Devils have no one taller than 6-9 besides Brian Zoubek, and they don’t have any legit post defenders that can really stifle the opposition. If Hansbrough has a big game, it opens things up for the rest of the Tar Heels, which have a tremendously explosive offense. Lastly, Duke has to get back in transition defensively. Ty Lawson – and Quentin Thomas – loves to push the ball and North Carolina is very good at filling the transition lanes on fast-break opportunities for easy baskets.

On the other side, North Carolina needs Ty Lawson or Thomas to take care of the ball. Lawson is one of the premier lead guards in the country, but he might not be at full-strength yet; Thomas has become much more comfortable running the offense lately. Duke extends its defense well past the three-point line and sometimes past half-court if it senses vulnerability with the opponent’s ball-handler. Lawson can break the pressure and get the offense started by himself, but Thomas needs to be strong with the ball and not turn it over. Duke has plenty of athletes that can score in transition; UNC can’t allow that. Also, UNC needs to get the ball to Hansbrough early and often. He is much too strong and talented inside for anyone on Duke to stop. The Blue Devils don’t have a lot of height or inside strength, and Hansbrough can dominate down low. If he gets Singler or Lance Thomas into foul trouble early, it puts Duke at an even bigger disadvantage in the paint. Hansbrough had a monster game last meeting (28 and 18), but Wayne Ellington, Marcus Ginyard and Danny Green shot just 7-for-34. UNC’s perimeter players need to step up. Defensively, UNC needs to play tough perimeter defense and it also needs to rotate in terms of its help defense. Duke has several players who can take their defender off the dribble, but UNC will need to be sure to rotate over and step into the lane to stop penetration. Duke loves to get into the paint and then kick the ball out for open threes and jumpshots. Furthermore, Duke has a plethora of players who can shoot the three-pointer with efficiency – UNC will need to get out and contest the Devils’ shots. If Duke starts knocking down outside shots and getting into the lane, it will spell trouble for UNC. Duke hit several long-range bombs in the last meeting, which ultimately did the Tar Heels in.

Going into last game, the key was clearly the health of Ty Lawson. This game will be slightly different; Lawson is definitely going to play, but how healthy will he be? He played 21 minutes against Boston College and 20 vs. Florida State, but seemed closer to his old self in the latter game. He adds a different dimension to the UNC lineup when he is in the game. Despite his return, though, I’m going with Duke again. They have the offensive firepower to exploit UNC’s defensive liabilities and the defensive pressure to stifle the Tar Heels’ explosive offense.

Prediction: Duke 87, North Carolina 82

Game of the Week: #11 Georgetown at #21 Marquette

Jeff Borzello — Fri, 29 Feb 2008 07:55:38 -0800

Game of the Week: No. 11 Georgetown at No. 21 Marquette (Saturday, 2:00 PM, CBS)

With March on its way and Selection Sunday just around the corner, most of the talk around the country has been focusing on bubble teams and the always-popular “In or Out?” question. However, once the NCAA Tournament starts, the majority of people forget about those teams and start looking at the teams that can potentially make a Final Four run. In other words, don’t forget that there are still marquee games between conference contenders this weekend – not just bubble battles between middling major-conference teams. In the Pac-10, Stanford takes on Washington State; Michigan State gets a chance for revenge against Indiana in the Big Ten; and Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga face-off to decide who will win the West Coast Conference. However, the best game might take place in the Big East, when co-conference leader Georgetown heads to Wisconsin to go up against a hot Marquette team.

Georgetown Team Breakdown

Georgetown came into the season as the co-Big East favorite along with Louisville, and the Hoyas have not disappointed. They have been at the top of the conference all season long, and have stayed in the top-15 of the polls throughout the year. All four of their losses came on the road, including defeats at Memphis, Pittsburgh and the aforementioned Cardinals. On the other hand, Georgetown also has wins over Connecticut, Notre Dame and West Virginia. It is ranked No. 23 in offensive efficiency and No. 8 in defensive efficiency.

The Hoyas are led by center Roy Hibbert, one of the best big men in the country. His numbers don’t reflect how good he is; he has the ability to dominate a game with his size and skill at both ends of the floor. Starting up front with him is sophomore DaJuan Summers, who has improved since last season. He has taken a more aggressive role offensively, and can score inside and out. Off the bench is Patrick Ewing, Jr., an athletic and energetic big man who can defend and score around the basket. Vernon Macklin also sees time.

Georgetown starts three guards on the perimeter, led by upperclassmen Jonathan Wallace and Jessie Sapp. Both players are interchangeable; both can handle the ball and run the offense, and both can play off-the-ball and knock down three-pointers. Wallace is very solid from beyond the arc, while Sapp is a clutch performer down the stretch who can get into the lane as well as shoot. Freshman Austin Freeman is very efficient from the field and he can shoot from anywhere on the court. Jeremiah Rivers comes off the bench. He is an outstanding defender who is usually in the game when it counts because of his ability on that side of the ball.

Marquette Team Breakdown

Marquette was generally considered the third-best team in the Big East, but a decent amount behind Georgetown and Louisville. While the Golden Eagles have been somewhat inconsistent at times this season, they are getting hot at the right time and will be a tough out in March. All six of their losses were to top-35 RPI teams, including two to Louisville, as well as games against Duke, Connecticut and Notre Dame. Their best wins are at Wisconsin, Notre Dame and Pittsburgh. In terms of efficiency, Marquette is ranked No. 19 offensively and No. 11 defensively.

The Golden Eagles are led by their perimeter group, one of the best in the nation. Dominic James is an outstanding point guard. He is fearless when driving to the rim and can finish with anyone in the country. He is not overly consistent from three-point range, but he is a playmaker off the bounce. Jerel McNeal is one of the better two-way players in the Big East. He can do nearly anything on the court – besides shoot threes – and is a lockdown defender. Wesley Matthews is another double-figure scorer on the perimeter. He can shoot the three and has a nice mid-range game. Off the bench, David Cubillan is an excellent three-point shooter, while Maurice Acker can shoot the ball as well as run the offense.

The frontcourt has long been considered Marquette’s main weakness, although that trend is beginning to change this season. The main reason – sophomore Lazar Hayward. He is just 6-6, but he can hold his own in the post and has the offensive versatility to step out to the perimeter and consistent knock down three-pointers. He is also a very solid rebounder. Ousmane Barro provides length when he is in the game; he is the team’s best shot-blocker and is a good rebounder. Dan Fitzgerald, despite his 6-9 size, is mostly a three-point shooter but he is decent in the paint.

Game Analysis and Prediction

The Big East has a handful of teams in the top-25 of the RPI, and all are in some sort of contention for the conference title. Georgetown is at the top with Louisville, while Marquette has been making a run of late with its outstanding recent play. This game should reflect what is at stake – as well as the difference in the two teams’ respective styles. Georgetown runs a version of the Princeton offense, filled with backdoor cuts and open passing lanes. Defensively, the Hoyas play tough half-court defense and don’t allow too many open shots. Having the 7-3 Hibbert down low helps things. On the other side, Marquette has a variety of perimeter players who can either take their defender off the dribble or hit the three off penetration. At the other end, Marquette loves to pressure the opponents’ guards and play the passing lanes hoping for steals and transition baskets. It will interesting to see which side prevails.

If Georgetown is going to take the next step in its quest for the Big East title, it is going to have to do several things in order to knock off the hot Golden Eagles on their home-court. First, the Hoyas need to establish Roy Hibbert down low early and often. Marquette is not a very big team at all; its best inside player is 6-6 Lazar Hayward and 6-9 Dan Fitzgerald would rather play on the perimeter. Hibbert will have a major size advantage on whomever is defending him; Georgetown has to take advantage of that. Also offensively, Georgetown will have to avoid making vulnerable passes that have a chance of getting picked off and turn the tables on the aggressive Marquette guards. The Hoyas should wait until either Dominic James or Jerel McNeal overplays defensively, and then beat them with a backdoor cut for an easy basket. Defensively, Georgetown has to force James and McNeal to shoot three-pointers and keep them out of the lane. When they both have opportunities to consistently beat their defenders off the dribble and create for themselves and their teammates, Marquette is much more difficult to defend. When they begin to penetrate, the defense collapses and leaves Hayward, Fitzgerald, Wesley Matthews, David Cubillan – all very good three-point shooters – open for jumpers from beyond the arc. Neither James or McNeal is consistent from three-point range, and it would help if the Hoyas could force them to shoot jumpers.

On the other side, if Marquette is going to continue its winning ways against one of the best teams in the country, and the co-conference leader in the Big East, it will need to take advantage of a few things and overcome a couple of weaknesses. First, slowing down Hibbert inside and making sure to grab defensive rebounds are the biggest things. Marquette does not have anyone who can stop Hibbert by himself, but they cannot allow him to get uncontested entry passes and wide-open touches down low. If he establishes himself, Marquette could be in trouble. Additionally, the Golden Eagles are not a very good defensive rebounding team, while Georgetown has the players to exploit that disadvantage. Also on the defensive end, Marquette needs to force turnovers and try to get transition baskets. Georgetown would much rather have the game played strictly in the half-court – outside of a couple of fast-break opportunities – but Marquette has the guards to play an up-and-down game. A few mishaps early by Georgetown, and Marquette will have a chance to get easy points and grab the momentum. Offensively, Marquette has to hit its three-pointers. Georgetown guards the rim and paint very well, but teams have had success shooting threes against the Hoyas. Marquette has a host of quality three-point shooters; if they are knocking down their jumpers, they will be tough to stop. On that same thread, players like James and McNeal can’t settle for outside shots; they have to attempt to take the ball to the basket and make plays around the rim.

This game is going to be a very interesting battle between two teams looking to solidify their seeding for both the conference tournament in a couple of weeks, as well as the NCAA Tournament in mid-March. Both teams play different styles and have completely different line-up types. In the end, the difference is going to be the guards of Marquette and their defense. I think they will be able to get a couple of turnovers and quick baskets early, which will get the home crowd into it and give the Golden Eagles some momentum, and Marquette will be able to hang on late.

Prediction: Marquette 73, Georgetown 68

Game of the Week: #2 Tennessee at #1 Memphis

Jeff Borzello — Fri, 22 Feb 2008 14:48:10 -0800

Game of the Week: No. 2 Tennessee at No. 1 Memphis (Saturday, 9:00 PM, ESPN)

No. 1 vs. No. 2. It’s the most sought-after match-up in college sports, and it seems to happen more rarely than most fans would want. However, the entire nation will get to see the top two-ranked teams – not necessarily the two “best” teams – go head-to-head in a battle to decide who will be No. 1 in the country next week. Memphis has been at or near the top of the polls all season, while Tennessee had been a solid top-ten squad for most of the year, but outstanding recent play combined with losses from other top-five teams left a gaping hole at No. 2. Luckily for the Vols – and ESPN – their ascent happened just in time to face intrastate rival Memphis in one of the most highly-anticipated non-conference match-ups in recent years.

Tennessee Team Breakdown

Tennessee came into the season as the heavy favorite to win the SEC, but struggled a little bit to open the season, getting obliterated by 19 on a neutral court against Tennessee. Since then, though, the Volunteers have been one of the best teams in the country, winning 19 of their last 20 games, with the lone loss coming at Kentucky. They own wins over Xavier, Gonzaga, West Virginia, Ohio State, as well as every postseason contender in the SEC. UT, the nation’s top-ranked team in the RPI, is ranked No. 10 in offensive efficiency and No. 27 in defensive efficiency.

The Volunteers have one of the deepest, most athletic squads in the country. It starts on the perimeter with All-America candidate Chris Lofton, a senior guard who had struggled shooting the ball for the first half of the season. However, in the last nine games, Lofton has knocked down over 49 percent of his three-point attempts and is averaging over 19 points per game. Flanking him is JaJuan Smith, a very good scorer and tremendous defensive player. Smith plays the passing lanes unbelievably well and has very quick hands. The two-headed point guard of Ramar Smith and Jordan Howell combines to average 13.7 points, 3.8 rebounds and 5.9 assists and just 3.2 turnovers per game. Smith is more of a scorer and playmaker, while Howell is a heady player who doesn’t turn the ball over. Former Arizona transfer J.P. Prince is the team’s fifth-leading scorer since becoming eligible in mid-December.

Up front, Tyler Smith has made an immediate impact after coming over from Iowa and contributes in a variety of ways. He leads the team in rebounds and assists, and is third in scoring; he might be the most indispensable player on the entire Vols’ roster. Wayne Chism is a good inside-outside scorer who needs to get tougher down low. His scoring is inconsistent, but he has improved as a rebounder throughout the course of the season. Duke Crews missed nine games due to a heart condition, but he is athletic and can finish around the rim. Freshman rebounder Brian Williams sees back-up minutes in the paint, while Ryan Childress is a decent inside-outside option but has seen just 12 minutes total over the last eight games.

Memphis Team Breakdown

Memphis was ranked as the preseason No. 1 in several polls, including mine, and the Tigers have not disappointed those that pegged them as the top team in the country. They are 26-0 and on the top of the rankings as the lone undefeated team in the country. Despite their mediocre in-conference slate, the Tigers made-up for it with non-league wins over Connecticut, Oklahoma, USC, Arizona, Gonzaga and Georgetown. They struggled slightly last week against Houston and UAB, but escaped with wins in both games. The Tigers are the nation’s most efficient defensive team, and also rank No. 28 in offensive efficiency.

Memphis has one of the best perimeter duos in the country in freshman point guard Derrick Rose and junior wing Chris Douglas-Roberts. Rose is a premier point guard although he tends to make freshmen mistakes at times. He came into college as an extremely highly-rated lead guard and has been one of the best playmakers in the country. Douglas-Roberts has become one of the better scorers in the nation with his ability to finish in a variety of ways. The Tigers had lacked a go-to scorer, but CDR has clearly stepped into that role. He is averaging almost 28 points per game in his last three contests. Antonio Anderson contributes in different ways, whether distributing and handling the ball, or knocking down three-pointers. Doneal Mack is a very good scorer who is fifth on the team in scoring despite ranking ninth in minutes. Willie Mack and Andre Allen see minutes off the bench; Mack is a good shooter and scorer, while Allen is a solid defender.

Up front, Memphis isn’t as deep but it still has plenty of talent and options. Robert Dozier has shown flashes of his potential but has not been consistent throughout the season. He can score in a variety of ways, by posting-up defenders or driving to the basket from the top of the key. Joey Dorsey might be the best defender-rebounder combination player in the country. He is an outstanding shot-blocker who can change games with his ability to defend. He also averages almost 11 rebounds per game, but has trouble with fouls. Offensively, he shoots almost 69 percent from the field but isn’t a consistent option. Shawn Taggart is a very solid scorer and rebounder who has shown flashes of his skill.

Game Analysis and Prediction

Despite the fact that it is only a non-conference game, don’t underestimate the importance of this game. Obviously, it is No. 1 vs. No. 2, which immediately makes it a must-see game. We have had some disappointing top-ranked games that haven’t lived up to the hype, but this one will be different. Both teams are in the mix for No. 1 seeds; Memphis might have one locked up already, but a win here would clinch it. Tennessee would take a huge step forward with a win over the undefeated Tigers on the road. It is going to be an up-and-down affair, as both teams love to push the ball to get transition points, and create offensive opportunities with their defense. The Volunteers shoot a lot of three-pointers and don’t often score many back-to-the-basket points. They are also adept at getting to the basket when defenders overplay the three-pointer. Memphis utilizes the AASAA offense, in which they constantly attack the basket until an open shot or driving opportunity presents itself. Like the Vols, they are primarily perimeter-oriented.

If Tennessee is going to head on the road and give Memphis its first loss of the season, it is going to need to get several things going in its favor. First, the Volunteers need to knock down their three-point shots. Memphis defends the three very well with its array of long and athletic perimeter players, but Tennessee will undoubtedly find open shots from beyond the arc. They will need to hit them. Chris Lofton has been hot from there lately, but nearly everyone in the lineup can shoot it. Secondly, although they need to knock down their three-pointers, they can’t settle for perimeter jumpshots and just rely on the three-ball to beat the Tigers. Tyler Smith is a match-up problem for Memphis, and he and Wayne Chism could accomplish a lot by simply drawing Robert Dozier and Joey Dorsey away from the basket. That would open up driving and passing – Tennessee leads the nation in assists – lanes for Tennessee. Getting to the basket and going to the foul-line could be key. Dorsey has a tendency to get into foul trouble, and the Tigers lose a lot defensively when he is out of the game. At the other end of the floor, Tennessee needs to get Derrick Rose to turn the ball over. He is an outstanding player, but he also turns the ball over a decent amount against pressure. Getting turnovers and points in transition will ease a lot of the things Tennessee needs to do. Also, Tennessee needs to be sure to grab defensive rebounds. Memphis is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, while the Volunteers are not very good on the defensive glass. Limiting second-chances and multiple opportunities for Memphis would be huge.

On the other side, if Memphis is going to pass its toughest test of the season and continue to march towards an undefeated season, it will need to do a variety of things. Offensively, it needs to take care of the ball and not allow Tennessee to get going in transition for easy baskets. Rose is strong enough to break the press himself, but he can’t try to do too much. Making the easy pass and settling down the offense once the Tigers get past the press would be ideal. Although Memphis also likes getting up-and-down the court, its half-court game is much more effective than Tennessee’s half-court offense and defense are. Furthermore, Memphis needs to hit its three-pointers, but not take too many of them. The Tigers take plenty of long-range shots and are not all that impressive from deep. They shoot just 34 percent from beyond the arc, while Tennessee holds teams to just 29 percent from three-point range. That doesn’t bode well for Memphis, which needs to utilize its size advantage on the wings and inside to get baskets inside the arc. The Volunteers don’t defend two-points all that well; they are certainly vulnerable if the Tigers take the ball to the basket. Defensively, Memphis has to extend its half-court defense and not allow any of Tennessee’s three-point shooters to get hot from deep. Lofton has been hitting his threes, but if the Smiths and even Chism start knocking down threes, Memphis will be in trouble. Lastly, Dorsey needs to stay on the floor. He has the ability to make a difference at both ends of the floor, especially against a team like Tennessee that struggles to defend big men down low and also have small guards that have a tendency to get their shots blocked inside.

Once it became apparent that Memphis was not going to lose and Tennessee should run away with the SEC, everyone circled Saturday on their calendars. With all the hype and anticipation, the only thing we can do it hope it doesn’t disappoint. It won’t. Not with two of the most fun-to-watch teams in the country and two of the best coaches – John Calipari of Memphis and Bruce Pearl of Tennessee – in the land roaming the sidelines. The difference will be Memphis’ edge down low and the Tigers’ homecourt advantage. If Rose can handle the pressure and Dorsey stays out of foul trouble, expect yet another Memphis win.

Prediction: Memphis 86, Tennessee 82

Game of the Week: Michigan State at Indiana

Jeff Borzello — Sat, 16 Feb 2008 09:01:02 -0800

Game of the Week: No. 10 Michigan State at No. 13 Indiana (Saturday, 9:00 PM, ESPN)

When two of the best teams in the Big Ten face-off, it is guaranteed to be one of the better games of the weekend. In this case, Michigan State and Indiana are both coming off of losses, but are still right in the thick of the conference title race. However, Saturday night’s game will be more than just a battle for conference supremacy. In the light of all the recent happenings at Indiana involving Kelvin Sampson, it will be interesting to see if it could potentially be a distraction to the Hoosiers. Rumors swirling around regarding Sampson’s coaching future at IU will certainly not help a young team in need of a marquee win. It should be an outstanding match-up.

Michigan State Team Breakdown

Michigan State came into the season as the co-Big Ten favorite – along with Indiana – and a potential Final Four sleeper. However, the Spartans have been somewhat inconsistent this season, beating the likes of Texas, BYU and Purdue, but also losing to teams such as Iowa and Penn State. They have struggled scoring the ball on occasion, averaging just 57.3 points per game in their four losses. MSU is ranked No. 38 in offensive efficiency and No. 23 in defensive efficiency.

The Spartans have a deep and balanced team, but the key is play of the perimeter. Senior Drew Neitzel developed into a go-to-guy last season, but has taken a step back this season as other players have become consistent offensive options. He is still a great leader who can knock down clutch shots late in the game. He takes tremendous care of the ball, and can also distribute. Freshman Kalin Lucas and junior Travis Walton can both play the point, although Lucas is much more of an aggressive scorer, while Walton is a defensive stopper. Lucas is very quick and can create plays for himself and his teammates; Walton takes care of the ball and is a very good passer. Durrell Summers and Chris Allen both see less than 13 minutes per game, but they are fifth and six on the team in scoring, respectively. Summers is an outstanding shooter.

Up front, sophomore Raymar Morgan has become one of the better all-around players in the Big Ten. He can score in a variety of ways, as he has the ability to post-up smaller players down low or hit the mid-range jumper and drive past slower defenders. He is very difficult to defend. Goran Suton is an underrated inside performer. He is an efficient finisher inside and is one of the best rebounders in the conference. Suton is also a good passer with decent vision for a big man. Marquise Gray is an athletic forward who can rebound very well and bang down low, while Drew Naymick is a solid shot-blocker and rebounder who is extremely efficient inside.

Indiana Team Breakdown

Indiana was one of the candidates to win the Big Ten heading into the season, and it sure looked like that projection was going to be correct when the Hoosiers jumped out to a 17-1 record, including six straight wins in the Big Ten. Since then, though, IU is just 3-3, getting swept by Wisconsin and losing at home to Connecticut. Their best win on the season is at Ohio State – not exactly a marquee victory. The Hoosiers are ranked No. 20 in offensive efficiency and No. 22 at the other end of the floor.

The Hoosiers have one of the best inside-outside combos in the country in freshman guard Eric Gordon and senior big man D.J. White. Gordon has proved himself to be one of the best guards in the country, regardless of classification. He can score in a variety of ways, driving to the basket or shooting from three. He has unlimited range and is not afraid to take – and make – the big shot. White has become a premier big man, arguably the best in the Big Ten and one of the best in America. He is a double-double lock every night out, and can dominate the post against anyone. He is a tremendous defender and rebounder who is extremely efficient when finishing.

Indiana is very deep on the perimeter, with two double-figure scorers in addition to Gordon. Armon Bassett is one of the top three-point shooters in the conference, and has increased his production lately. He has the ability to play both guard positions. Jordan Crawford is a crafty freshman guard that can do nearly everything on the court. He tends to make mistakes at times and has been unbelievable inconsistent lately. Jamarcus Ellis is a junior wing that is one of the best rebounders in the Big Ten despite his 6-foot-5 stature. He is athletic and can distribute the ball well. Forward Lance Stemler is an inside-outside scoring threat who is usually good for a clutch three every game, while DeAndre Thomas and Mike White can bang down low.

Game Analysis and Prediction

Despite the poor play this week by each team, expect this to be one of the best games of the Big Ten season. Both teams have plenty of talent and can score from both inside and out with different options. Both teams like playing in the half-court, although Indiana has the athletes and scorers to get points in transition. Defensively, neither team forces many turnovers but they both play stingy half-court defense – indicative of the Big Ten as a whole. This game also holds more importance than one would expect in terms of the Big Ten standings. A loss here for Michigan State, and the Spartans could drop to fifth in the conference if Ohio State wins. That would not bode well for their seeding in the NCAA Tournament. Indiana has lost whatever momentum it built due to its hot start, and needs to pick-up a victory to get back on the right track.

If Michigan State is going to catapult itself back into the Big Ten race with a win on the road, it needs to play much better than it has in its last two contests away from home. In order to get the win, it will first need to start knocking down three-pointers. The Spartans didn’t hit a single long-range shot in their loss at Purdue on Tuesday and are shooting below 35 percent from beyond the arc on the season. The interesting thing is that MSU has players that can stroke the jumper consistently. Drew Neitzel has range, Kalin Lucas and Chris Allen are decent, and Durrell Summers is a terrific jump-shooter. Indiana is susceptible to the three-point shot, and the Spartans need to take advantage of that. Secondly, they will have to get consistent inside-outside production. Neitzel has been inconsistent in big games, while Goran Suton has been a non-factor at times. Lucas is not ready to be a go-to-guy, and Raymar Morgan can’t be the only scorer. Against a team like Indiana, Michigan State is going to need to get production from a variety of options. It would help if Neitzel reverted to his ways from last year, as well. Lastly, the Spartans have to slow down either Eric Gordon or D.J. White. It is obviously impossible to shut both of them down, but allowing both to have huge games would spell doom for MSU. They can’t allow Gordon to get hot from deep or White to dominate down low.

On the other side, Indiana has the home-court advantage but the off-court distractions. That will be the most important thing: focusing on the game and not on what is going on with the pending NCAA investigation and upcoming decision regarding Kelvin Sampson’s future with the team. The Hoosiers are still relatively young and inexperienced, and you never know if their minds might be elsewhere heading into the game. However, I think they’ll be okay – will Sampson? That’s the question. Defensively, Indiana needs to keep the Michigan State players out of the lane. Indiana starts four perimeter players for the most part and can’t allow Lucas, Neitzel, etc. to get into the lane and create for their teammates. The Spartans don’t shoot the three well, so IU has to force them to hit their perimeter shots. Pack it in or zone them; both could be successful. They also have to be sure to limit the Spartans’ second chances. White is really the only starting post player that Indiana has, and Michigan State is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. It’s imperative that Indiana cleans up MSU’s missed shots. Offensively, the secondary options for the Hoosiers will have to step-up and get points. Defensive stopper Travis Walton will be defending Gordon, which could be tough, while MSU has plenty of big guys to throw at White. Players like Armon Bassett and Jordan Crawford could be key.

The game is going to come down to who can get clutch baskets down the stretch; Michigan State is more experienced and has the personnel to slow down Indiana’s main offensive options late in the game. Despite the Spartans’ recent struggles on the road, I think they will get the win because of their offensive versatility and the off-court distractions for Indiana.

Prediction: Michigan State 66, Indiana 63

Game of the Week: Duke at North Carolina

Jeff Borzello — Wed, 06 Feb 2008 08:42:30 -0800

Game of the Week: No. 2 Duke at No. 3 North Carolina (Tonight, 9:00 PM, ESPN)

Aside from the NCAA Tournament, conference tournaments, Cinderella runs, what makes college basketball special are the rivalries. Nothing is better than those intrastate contests between two neighboring teams for bragging rights. With ESPN introducing “Rivalry Week” a few years ago, we now have all of those rivalry games over the span of a few days. And, of course, it features the biggest rivalry in all of college basketball and arguably the best rivalry in all of sports – the battle for Tobacco Road, North Carolina and Duke. Separated by only eight miles and a few shades of blue, all records and stats go out the window when the Tar Heels and Blue Devils get together.

Duke Team Breakdown

Duke has bounced back from a disappointing season last year, in which it was bounced in the first round of the NCAA Tournament by Eric Maynor and Virginia Commonwealth. The Blue Devils have just one loss on the season, a one-point defeat at the hands of Pittsburgh when Levance Fields hit a step-back three with three seconds remaining. Duke owns impressive victories over Wisconsin, Marquette, Clemson and nearly everyone else in the Blue Devils’ path. Duke is ranked No. 5 in offensive efficiency and No. 6 in defensive efficiency – indicative of its tremendous balance at both ends of the floor.

Duke’s success starts on the perimeter, where it boasts one of the deepest and most talented set of wings and guards in the country. Five players rotate in and out of the game, with all five averaging at least 16 minutes and 6.7 points per game. Gerald Henderson and DeMarcus Nelson lead the way on the wings. Henderson has developed into one of the premier perimeter players in the ACC. He is extremely talented and athletic, and has finally been given a chance to showcase that. Nelson has developed greatly since he arrived in Durham, and is the team’s leading scorer and rebounder, and is second in assists. Greg Paulus starts at the point. The oft-criticized junior, despite his quickness and defensive deficiencies, is a solid leader that takes care of the ball and shoots the three. Jon Scheyer started last year, but comes off the bench this year and has developed into one of the best sixth men in the country. Nolan Smith backs up Paulus.

North Carolina Team Breakdown

North Carolina came into the season as one of the top candidates for preseason No. 1 and the national championship – and it has not disappointed so far. The Tar Heels are 21-1, with the lone loss a two-point defeat at the hands of Maryland in Chapel Hill. UNC owns wins the most top-100 wins in the country, with 14. That includes victories over Ohio State, Clemson, Kent State and Davidson, as well as many other solid teams. The Tar Heels are ranked No. 4 in offensive efficiency and No. 30 in defensive efficiency.

North Carolina is led by one of the best players in the country, junior big man Tyler Hansbrough. The All-America is a dominant big man who has taken his game to another level this season, scoring at least 17 points in all but five games this year. He is an efficient scorer who is also a relentless rebounder that can convert in a variety of ways. Starting next to him is Deon Thompson. The 6-8 sophomore is averaging about 13 points and five rebounds over his past three games. Swingman Danny Green started earlier in the year at the power forward position, but he has become one of the best sixth men in the country. Marcus Ginyard starts at small forward. He is a tremendous defensive player who can guard nearly any position on the floor with his length and athleticism. Alex Stepheson comes off the bench down low.

In the backcourt are sophomores Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington. Lawson might be the fastest player in college basketball with the ball in his hands, and he has the ability to score and distribute the ball in traffic and in transition for easy baskets. However, it is questionable that Lawson will be able to play against Duke tonight after spraining his left ankle against FSU Sunday. "Right now I don't think the chances are real good (that Lawson will play)," coach Roy Williams said Monday. His status for the game won’t be known until today. If he is out, either Ginyard (who has turf toe currently) or senior Quentin Thomas will handle the point guard responsibilities. Thomas tends to be out of control at times and turn the ball over, but he played well in Lawson’s place against FSU and has experience. Luckily for him, Ellington will start no matter what. He is a tremendous shooter and scorer who can make shots from anywhere on the court, from deep beyond the arc or in the mid-range. He is struggling lately, though, averaging just 11.3 points per game in his last six contests.

Game Analysis and Prediction

Although Duke vs. North Carolina is always one of the best games on the college basketball schedule in February, this game has taken on added importance as it pits two of the top-three teams in the country against each other. Both squads are fighting for the top seed in the Charlotte region – and any other region, for that matter – in the NCAA Tournament as well as the always-coveted ACC regular-season title. Both teams like to push the ball and get transition baskets, but are also comfortable in a half-court set. Duke pressures the ball defensively with its stable of athletic perimeter players, forcing its opponent into turnovers and mistakes. At the other end, the Blue Devils spread the floor and create match-up problems because of the number of players that can shoot the three or take their defender off the dribble. North Carolina is one of the best offensive teams in the country, with the ability to knock down perimeter shots or throw it inside to Hansbrough and get baskets. Defensively, though, the Tar Heels have struggled at times, as they have given up at least 80 points on six occasions this year.

If Duke is going to go on the road and pull off the upset, it needs to do several things. First, it needs to take advantage of its perimeter depth and spread the floor in order to create mismatches across the board offensively. Kyle Singler can drag either Deon Thompson or Tyler Hansbrough away from the basket, and then take them off the dribble for easy baskets. If Danny Green comes in to play the four for UNC, Singler will have more than a three-inch height advantage. Also, Duke will have to take exceptional care of the ball against North Carolina’s perimeter ball pressure. Greg Paulus and Nolan Smith have done a good job of that this season, but will need to continue to do that if the Blue Devils have a chance of winning. UNC is not the best defensive team around, obviously, and Duke will have to make them play defense. Turnovers lead to easy baskets and momentum for North Carolina – exactly what Duke can’t afford. Defensively, Duke will have to stop Tyler Hansbrough. The Blue Devils have no one taller than 6-9 on the roster since Brian Zoubek broke his foot, and they don’t have any legit post defenders that can really stifle the opposition. If Hansbrough has a big game, it opens things up for the rest of the Tar Heels, which have a tremendously explosive offense. Lastly, Duke has to get back in transition defensively. Ty Lawson loves to push the ball and North Carolina is very good at filling the transition lanes on fast-break opportunities for easy baskets.

On the other side, North Carolina needs Ty Lawson healthy, and if not, Quentin Thomas will have to take care of the ball. Duke extends its defense well past the three-point line and sometimes past half-court if it senses vulnerability with the opponent’s ball-handler. Lawson can break the pressure and get the offense started by himself, but Thomas needs to be strong with the ball and not turn it over. Duke has plenty of athletes that can score in transition; UNC can’t allow that. Also, UNC needs to get the ball to Hansbrough early and often. He is much too strong and talented inside for anyone on Duke to stop. The Blue Devils don’t have a lot of height or inside strength, and Hansbrough can dominate down low. If he gets Singler or Lance Thomas into foul trouble early, it puts Duke at an even bigger disadvantage in the paint. Defensively, UNC needs to play tough perimeter defense and it also needs to rotate in terms of its help defense. Duke has several players who can take their defender off the dribble, but UNC will need to be sure to rotate over and step into the lane to stop penetration. Duke loves to get into the paint and then kick the ball out for open threes and jumpshots. Furthermore, Duke has a plethora of players who can shoot the three-pointer with efficiency – UNC will need to get out and contest the Devils’ shots. If Duke starts knocking down outside shots and getting into the lane, it will spell trouble for UNC.

In the end, the most important aspect of tonight’s game – aside from the return of Dick Vitale, of course – is going to be the health of Tywon Lawson. If he is able to play – and perform well – on a sprained ankle, UNC will receive a huge boost at both ends of the floor. More likely, however, Lawson will have to sit out and Quentin Thomas will see extended minutes. He is nowhere near the player Lawson is, and could have trouble against Duke’s perimeter defense. Therefore, I’m leaning towards Lawson not playing – and Duke picking up a huge win on the road. They have the offensive firepower to exploit UNC’s defensive liabilities and the defensive pressure to stifle the Tar Heels explosive offense.

Prediction: Duke 81, North Carolina 78

Game of the Week: Tennessee at Mississippi Sttae

Jeff Borzello — Sat, 02 Feb 2008 07:45:22 -0800

Game of the Week: No. 7 Tennessee at Mississippi State (Saturday, 7:00 PM, ESPN FullCourt/Regional TV)

With January on its way out and February just starting, it’s time for the best two-month stretch of the sports calendar to begin. From here on out, nearly every game matters, whether it is for at-large considerations, conference title races and for seeding. Since it’s only the midpoint for many conferences, most leagues are still up for grabs. This weekend features plenty of conference clashes, including two Pac-10 showdowns in Stanford at Washington State, and Arizona at UCLA, while two of the Big 12’s best collide as Baylor takes on Texas. However, in the SEC, teams from opposite divisions play each other only once every year, so it’s definitely a treat – and “Game of the Week” – when East leader Tennessee has to go on the road and face once-beaten West leader Mississippi State.

Tennessee Team Breakdown

Tennessee came into the season as the heavy favorite to win the SEC, but struggled a little bit to open the season, getting obliterated by 19 on a neutral court against Tennessee. Since then, though, the Volunteers have been one of the best teams in the country, winning 13 of their last 14 games, with the lone loss at Kentucky. They own wins over Xavier, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Vanderbilt, West Virginia and Mississippi. UT, the nation’s top-ranked team in the RPI, is ranked No. 12 in offensive efficiency and No. 24 in defensive efficiency.

The Volunteers have one of the deepest, most athletic squads in the country. It starts on the perimeter with All-America candidate Chris Lofton, a senior guard who had struggled shooting the ball this season before knocking down 17 of 32 three-point shots in his last three games. Flanking him is JaJuan Smith, a very good scorer and tremendous defensive player. Smith plays the passing lanes unbelievably well and has very quick hands. The two-headed point guard of Ramar Smtih and Jordan Howell combines to average 15.3 points, 3.8 rebounds and 6.3 assists and just 3.2 turnovers per game. Smith is more of a scorer and playmaker, while Howell is a heady player who doesn’t turn the ball over. Former Arizona transfer J.P. Prince is the team’s fourth leading scorer since becoming eligible in mid-December.

Up front, Tyler Smith has made an immediate impact after coming over from Iowa and contributes in a variety of ways. He leads the team in rebounds and assists, and is third in scoring; he might be the most indispensable player on the entire Vols’ roster. Wayne Chism is a good inside-outside scorer who needs to get tougher down low. His scoring is inconsistent, but he has improved as a rebounder throughout the course of the season. Duke Crews missed nine games due to a heart condition, but he is athletic and can finish around the rim. Freshman rebounder Brian Williams has seen increased minutes lately in Crews’ absence, while Ryan Childress is a decent inside-outside option.

Mississippi State Team Breakdown

Mississippi State rode its late-season success last year to a preseason top-25 ranking heading into this season. However, the Bulldogs started just 5-5 in the non-conference, losing to Clemson and Miami (Fl.) at home as well as Miami (Ohio), Southern Illinois and South Alabama. They have since won nine of their last 10, including a 20-point pasting of Mississippi last weekend. The lone loss was Wednesday night on the road against Arkansas. MSU is 5-1 in the SEC so far, and looks like the favorite in the SEC West. It is ranked No. 82 in offensive efficiency and No. 6 at the other end of the floor.

In the backcourt, the Bulldogs are led by one of the best all-around players in the country, 6-4 jack-of-all-trades Jamont Gordon. He is ranked No. 6 in the SEC in scoring, No. 13 in rebounding and No. 5 in assists. He has also cut down on his turnovers, which was a major problem in the past. Joining him on the perimeter are sophomores Barry Stewart and Ben Hansbrough. Stewart is a very solid double-figure scorer who has struggled with his three-point shot in SEC play, while Hansbrough takes care of the ball and can knock down outside shots. However, he was diagnosed with mono last week and could miss the Tennessee game. If he is out, Phil Turner, who is averaging over 30 minutes per game in the last eight contests, will start. Riley Benock is the team’s best three-point shooter, hitting seven of his last 13 outside attempts.

Up front, Mississippi State has one of the best duos in the SEC in senior Charles Rhodes and sophomore Jarvis Varnado. Rhodes has the ability to be a premier big man, although he had battled bouts of inconsistency and lackadaisical play in the past. He is very effective once he gets the ball down low. Varnado has become a national story over the past few weeks, due to his tremendous shot-blocking ability. He leads the country in blocked shots and is No. 3 in the SEC in rebounds. Varnado alters entire game plans as a result of his prowess in the paint. He had back-to-back 10-block games earlier this month, and is averaging 10.7 points, 10.7 rebounds and 6.0 blocks in the past six games before a disappointing performance against Arkansas. Former Louisville transfer Brian Johnson provides rebounding off the bench.

Game Analysis and Prediction

Although Tennessee remains the SEC favorite in most circles across the country, a loss here would give them their second loss of the league and drop them back in the standings. It will be a match-up of contrasting styles, as Tennessee loves to push the ball in transition for fast-break baskets and force turnovers on the defensive end with its non-stop pressure. The Volunteers shoot a lot of three-pointers and don’t often score many back-to-the-basket points. They are also adept at getting to the basket when defenders overplay the three-pointer. Mississippi State is second in the nation in field-goal percentage defense and blocked shots per game, and is also in the top-30 in rebound margin. The Bulldogs don’t force many turnovers and would much rather play in the half-court than an up-and-down affair. They contest nearly every shot, both inside and outside the arc, and don’t allow many second opportunities.

If Tennessee is going to walk into Starkville and the harsh confines of Humphrey Coliseum and come out with a win, it is going to need to do several things. In fact, of the elite teams, the Volunteers might be the only one that needs so many things to go their way in order to win. First, Tennessee has to impose its style of play on Mississippi State. The Volunteers want to push the ball at every opportunity, while MSU will attempt to make it a half-court game. The Volunteers have more athletes and much more depth than the Bulldogs, and would have a huge advantage if this game is played in the 80s. Secondly, if it is a half-court game, Tennessee needs to knock down its three-pointers and run its offense. The Vols become overly reliant on the three-ball at times, whether it is Chris Lofton, any of the Smiths, or even Wayne Chism. However, in this game, it would suit Tennessee to spread the floor and attempt to take the Bulldogs off the dribble. If Chism, Tyler Smith and co. can draw Jarvis Varnado and the MSU bigs away from the basket, driving lanes and penetration opportunities will open up going towards the lane. Additionally, MSU defends the three very well, so Tennessee will have to hit the open ones. Lastly, Tennessee will have to slow down Charles Rhodes and Varnado inside and keep the Bulldogs off the glass. The Volunteers are one of the worst defensive-rebounding teams in the country and don’t have the size to stop skilled big guys. If MSU dominates the paint and is not forced to make three-pointers, Tennessee could be in trouble.

On the other side, if Mississippi State is to pull off the top-10 upset at home, it will have to play arguably its best game of the year. More specifically, the main thing it can’t do is get caught-up in Tennessee’s transition game. Mississippi State can’t run with the Volunteers, and the Bulldogs could get run out of the building if they try to play a fast-break contest. They need to break the Tennessee press and then either get baskets if they have an advantage or slow it down and run their offense. Forcing plays that aren’t there will only hurt them. Defensively, the Bulldogs will have to contest Tennessee’s three-pointers but also stay in front of dribble-penetration. Gambling on the defensive end won’t make a difference; Tennessee is exceptional with the ball. Despite the pace UT plays at, it leads the country in assists and assist-to-turnover ratio. If the Volunteers have open jumpshots and driving lanes, it will cancel out the shot-blocking and size advantage that Mississippi State has. Lastly, Mississippi State will have to take advantage of its size on the offensive end. It starts in the backcourt with Jamont Gordon. He is too big and strong for any of the Volunteers’ guards. He has to take the ball into the paint and finish around the rim, or force Tennessee to foul him. Similarly, Rhodes needs to get enough touches inside to make a difference. He is one of the best big men in the SEC and will have the opportunity to take-over against the average post defenders of Tennessee. UT is awful at defending two-pointers and grabbing defensive rebounds; MSU is suited to exploit that.

This game is going to come down to which team can impose its tempo on the opponent. If the game is in the high 70s or 80s, Tennessee will get an edge because of its athletes and depth. Conversely, if the game is in the 60s or low 70s, the advantage goes to Mississippi State and its size and half-court defense. With MSU playing its best basketball of the season – and the fact the game is in Starkville – I’m going with the Bulldogs.

Prediction: Mississippi State 72, Tennessee 68

Game of the Week: Washington State at Arizona State

Jeff Borzello — Fri, 25 Jan 2008 08:16:27 -0800

Game of the Week: No. 6 Washington State at No. 24 Arizona State (Saturday, 7:00 PM, Regional TV)

As we get closer to January, we are, of course, also nearing one of the most exciting times in sports – the stretch run of the college basketball season. It means plenty of things, but most of all it means there will be lots of bubble talk, conference title races, key intra-conference match-ups, and NCAA Tournament discussion. It also means important games every night between either top teams in the conference, or between two teams trying to keep pace in the at-large hunt. There is no shortage of games like that this weekend, including a Big East showdown when Georgetown heads to West Virginia, a couple of interesting SEC battles (finally), and two huge non-conference match-ups. However, the best of them all will be one between two programs that were irrelevant before last season – Washington State at Arizona State. Neither team likes to play fast-paced basketball at all; they both rank in the bottom 20 of the country in tempo. Will any team in the nation want to play either of them in March, though? Not a chance.

Washington State Team Breakdown

Washington State came out of nowhere last season to make a run at the Pac-10 title and eventually earned a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament before bowing out in the second round. The Cougars have continued their stellar play this season, sitting in a tie for second place at 4-2 in the conference, and 16-2 overall. They own road wins over Washington, USC, Baylor and Gonzaga and a home victory over Oregon. The only losses were on the road at UCLA and Arizona. The Cougars play outstanding defense and force teams to play at one of the slowest paces in the country. They are ranked No. 11 in defensive efficiency and No. 15 in offensive efficiency.

The Cougars are led by their outstanding backcourt of Kyle Weaver and Derrick Low. Weaver is one of the best defenders in the country and has the ability to create match-up problems at both ends of the floor with his size and length. Low has been compared by some to Steve Nash, and he is a high-energy player that always seems to be around the ball. He can create his own shot, and is also adept at finding his teammates. Taylor Rochestie also starts in a three-guard lineup. He is a very good three-point shooter and passer who doesn’t make too many mistakes. He can finish in the lane with runners and tough-to-block lay-ups. Nikola Kiprovica comes off the bench.

Up front, 6-10 junior center Aron Baynes has made a huge impact due to his vast improvement since last season. He is the team’s leading rebounder and second-leading scorer, and provides the Cougars with a legit inside presence that they didn’t get on a consistent basis last year. Robbie Cowgill is another efficient big man. He rebounds and defends well, and doesn’t commit unnecessary fouls. Daven Harmeling will come off the bench. He is an inside-out threat who can shoot the three consistently. Caleb Forrest also sees minutes.

Arizona State Team Breakdown

Arizona State is like this year’s version of 2007 Washington State. The Sun Devils were projected to finish near the bottom of the Pac-10, but have been one of the most improved teams in the country. They currently are in a tie for second in the conference with a 4-2 record, and an impressive 14-4 overall mark. ASU has wins over Xavier, Arizona and Oregon at home, as well as a victory over California on the road. However, one potential concern is that all four losses have come by double-figures. Like Washington State, Arizona State plays at a slow pace but is extremely efficient offensively and can control the game. The Sun Devils rank No. 19 in offensive efficiency and No. 70 in defensive efficiency.

Leading the way for the Sun Devils has been superstar freshman James Harden. The 6-5 swingman has been one of the best newcomers in the country, putting up outstanding numbers on a nightly basis. Furthermore, he has stepped up his play since conference games began, scoring at least 20 points in each of the first four Pac-10 contests. Joining him on the wing is fellow freshman Ty Abbott. He is a good three-point shooter and scorer who needs to develop some consistency as his career progresses. In the Sun Devils’ four-guard lineup, Jerren Shipp and Derek Glasser also start. Shipp does a little of everything and can knock down shots, while Glasser is a very solid point guard who takes care of the ball at an unbelievable rate. His assist-to-turnover ratio is nearly four-to-one. Christian Polk sees minutes off the bench, although he hasn’t played in three of the last four games. Jamelle McMillan backs up at the point.

Arizona State usually utilizes four perimeter players and one big man on the floor. Luckily for the Sun Devils, their big man is one of the best in the conference. Jeff Pendergraph is one of the most efficient post players in the country and is an outstanding offensive rebounder. Furthermore, he makes an impact defensively, blocking shots on a consistent basis. Prior to a disappointing performance against Stanford because of foul trouble, Pendergraph was averaging 19.6 points and 8.1rebounds in his previous seven games. Former Duke transfer Erik Boateng backs him up inside. He provides decent production at both ends of the floor.

Game Analysis and Prediction

If you like scoring, this game isn’t for you. As mentioned before, both teams love to slow the game down and play in the half-court. Therefore, expect both teams to take care of the ball and limit mistakes, and the final result will likely be in the 50s or low 60s. Arizona State has allowed more than 65 points just five times this season, while Washington State has given up more than 65 points on only three occasions all season. Both teams have plenty of solid perimeter players and a go-to-guy down low, and rely on terrific balance and offensive execution to get their points. One of the best individual match-ups in the Pac-10 will also be on display in Tempe on Saturday night as ASU’s James Harden, an outstanding scorer who can get points against anyone, will be defended by Washington State’s Kyle Weaver, one of the best defensive players in the country. Keep an eye on the last few minutes – that’s when the game will be decided.

If Washington State is to continue its winning ways, the Cougars will need to play a lot better than they did in their last road game, when they looked very average at UCLA. Of course, many teams look average against the Bruins, so for their sake, let’s hope it was an anomaly. First, they’re going to have to contain either Harden or Jeff Pendergraph. Pendergraph got into foul trouble against Stanford, so the Cardinal were able to focus on Harden and essentially shut him down in the second half. The other options for the Sun Devils (i.e. Ty Abbott, Jerren Shipp) are not good enough to carry the offense on their own. Secondly, they have to keep Pendergraph off the offensive glass. As a whole, the Sun Devils aren’t a great offensive rebounding team but Pendergraph is one of the best in the country in that area. They can’t make it easy on the Sun Devils’ offense to score. Offensively, Washington State needs to knock down its shots. ASU allows its opposition a lot of three-point shots, so the Cougars will get opportunities. Taylor Rochestie and Daven Harmeling are consistent from outside the arc, so they will be huge factors.

On the other side, Arizona State could really make a splash on the national state with a win over the top-10 Cougars. The Sun Devils don’t really have a lot of winning experience and two of their three leading scorers are freshmen, so they could play tight early on – they will have to shake that off quickly in order to win. Specifically, Arizona State will need to take good shots when it is on offense. Washington State doesn’t force a lot of turnovers or block a lot of shots, but they force teams to take difficult and contested shots throughout the game. A couple of quick shots by ASU with no one underneath to rebound could lead to a big run from WSU, which is exactly what the Sun Devils don’t need. Secondly, the Sun Devils’ secondary options are going to have to step-up. Washington State does a great job of taking away teams’ primary scoring threats (Harden and Pendergraph), so guys like Ty Abbott, Jerren Shipp and Derek Glasser will need to score if given the opportunity. Defensively, Arizona State has to be patient and not commit unnecessary fouls. Washington State will milk the shot-clock if that’s what it takes to get an open shot in its offense. WSU has a variety of scoring options so ASU can’t really key-in on anyone in particular. The Cougars are also phenomenal from the free-throw line so ASU will have to be careful not to reach-in or bail them out with a late foul.

This could be one of the best games of the early Pac-10 season. Neither team is overly explosive offensively but both teams are lock-down defensive groups who won’t give up an easy shot all night. WSU has more experience in these types of games than Arizona State, but the game will be in Tempe, which gives the Sun Devils an immediate advantage. The difference is going to be the presence of Pendergraph down low and the ability of Harden to get into the lane and make plays. Expect a tightly-contested game that goes down to the final minutes – and possibly the final possession.

Prediction: Arizona State 62, Washington State 59

Game of the Week: Clemson at Duke

Jeff Borzello — Fri, 18 Jan 2008 08:34:15 -0800

Game of the Week: No. 24 Clemson at No. 7 Duke (Saturday, 6:00 PM, ESPN)

Take one quick look at the college basketball scene and it’s obvious that the parity around the country is unbelievable. Outside of the top handful of teams, there are dozens of teams that look unbeatable on certain nights and unbearable on other nights. As a result, it makes nearly every game between potential contenders in conference play a key game. This weekend features several of those types of games, including a bevy of Pac-10 showdowns with Arizona State taking on Stanford and Oregon facing Washington State; a couple of Big East battles highlighted by Notre Dame-Georgetown and Marquette-Connecticut; as well as a battle of unbeatens in the Missouri Valley with Drake taking on Illinois State. However, the best game is between the top two contenders to North Carolina’s throne in the ACC – Clemson heading to Durham to take on Duke. Both teams love to spread the floor and attack the basket offensively and force turnovers defensively, so prepare to be entertained all night.

Clemson Team Breakdown

In what seems to be a recurring theme for Clemson, the Tigers got off to yet another hot start, starting 10-0 this season. It was the third year in a row that Clemson began a season with at least 10 straight wins. However, like the past few years, the Tigers have struggled somewhat since the undefeated beginning. They have lost three of their last seven games, including back-to-back home losses to North Carolina and Charlotte. Only a double-overtime win against Florida State kept the losing streak from extending to three. On the other hand, the Tigers own wins over Mississippi State, Alabama, Purdue and South Carolina. They are ranked No. 23 in offensive efficiency and No. 25 in defensive efficiency.

Clemson is a deep and balanced team, with ten players consistently seeing playing time and five guys avearging in double-figures. Wing K.C. Rivers leads the way. Last year’s sixth man extraordinaire has been excellent in the starting lineup, scoring in double-figures in every game but one this year. However, he has slowed down somewhat lately, averaging just 9.7 points and 5.3 rebounds per game in his last three contests. He is flanked on the perimeter by freshman point guard Demontez Stitt, who has improved with every game but is still inconsistent, and senior Cliff Hammonds, an all-around solid player who takes care of the ball. In fact, Hammonds may be the most underrated player in the ACC – he can do everything. Sixth man Terrence Oglesby ranks third on the team in scoring despite playing just 18 minutes per game. He has hit 10 of his last 18 three-point attempts.

Up front, athletic big man James Mays and physical rebounder Trevor Booker start. Mays contributes more than numbers – although they are impressive. He is at the top of the team’s press and changes the game defensively. Booker is a beast on the glass and has also shown the ability to score. He has become one of the best big men in the ACC, averaging 21.2 points and 7.6 rebounds per game in his last five contests. Raymond Sykes has shown potential and athleticism off the bench, while Jerai Grant also provides depth. Wing David Potter might be the team’s best three-point shooter, while former start Sam Perry can defend.

Duke Team Breakdown

Duke has bounced back from a disappointing season last year, in which it was bounced in the first round of the NCAA Tournament by Eric Maynor and Virginia Commonwealth. The Blue Devils have just one loss on the season, a one-point defeat at the hands of Pittsburgh when Levance Fields hit a step-back three with three seconds remaining. Duke owns marquee victories over both Marquette and Wisconsin. The Devils are extremely undersized, with no one on the roster taller than 6-9 since Brian Zoubek broke his foot. However, they play tenacious defense and have overcome the height deficiency by creating match-up problems at the other end of the floor. Duke is ranked No. 13 in offensive efficiency and No. 4 in defensive efficiency.

Duke’s success starts on the perimeter, where it boasts one of the deepest and most talented set of wings and guards in the country. Five players rotate in and out of the game, with all five averaging at least 16 minutes and six points per game. Gerald Henderson and DeMarcus Nelson lead the way on the wings. Henderson has developed into one of the premier perimeter players in the ACC. He is extremely talented and athletic, and has finally been given a chance to showcase that. Nelson has developed greatly since he arrived in Durham, and is the team’s leading scorer and rebounder, and is second in assists. Greg Paulus starts at the point. The oft-criticized junior, despite his quickness and defensive deficiencies, is a solid leader that takes care of the ball and shoots the three. Jon Scheyer started last year, but comes off the bench this year and has developed into one of the best sixth men in the country. Nolan Smith backs up Paulus.

Up front, Kyle Singler has been one of the most impressive freshmen in the country. He is very difficult to guard, due to his ability to shoot the three, score inside and create players off the dribble. He is fundamentally sound and creates match-up problems for nearly any defender. Lance Thomas starts at the five, but he’s more of an athletic forward who can run the floor and finish. Taylor King, who comes off the bench, is one of the best three-point shooters in the country. If he is open from anywhere on the court, he will take a shot. David McClure is a decent role player.

Game Analysis and Prediction

The popular opinion around the country is that the ACC is North Carolina’s to lose. While that may be the case, don’t give them the title just yet. Both of these teams are going to have something to say about it before the year is all said and done. Clemson took North Carolina to overtime and the Tigers probably should have won that game if not for late-game heroics by Wayne Ellington, and Duke is playing some of the best basketball in the country, at both ends of the floor. As mentioned above, both teams like to spread the floor and create opportunities going to the basket. Each team has a plethora of athletic wings and guards who can take defenders one-on-one off the dribble, and then make plays in the lane. Clemson has been getting great production down low from Trevor Booker, and he and James Mays give the Tigers great inside balance to go with the shooters and scorers on the perimeter. Defensively, the Tigers pressure full-court throughout the game, with Mays harassing the inbounds passer. They love to create points off turnovers; if Duke can consistently can break the press, Clemson is in trouble. On the other side, Duke likes to exploit its quickness advantage it has on the opponent. There’s usually at least four players that can shoot the three on the floor at the same time, making them difficult to defend. Defensively, the Blue Devils are tenacious on the perimeter and force their opponents into mistakes.

If Clemson is to go into Cameron and pull off the upset, it is going to have to do several things. First, the Tigers are going to need to force turnovers off their press and get easy points in transition and off fast-breaks. Greg Paulus usually takes care of the ball, but he can get rattled against pressure. Clemson needs to get momentum early if it wants to win the game. Secondly, they need to take advantage of their edge in the paint. Trevor Booker has been a beast down low lately, and no one on Duke can defend him. Furthermore, James Mays is also very difficult to stop when he gets the ball around the basket. Both players need to have big days. Lastly, the Tigers need to knock down free throws and take care of the ball. Demontez Stitt is still a freshman, and he needs to keep his composure on the road against Duke’s pressure and the crowd. Of course, Clemson always struggles with free-throw shooting, so that basically goes without saying; in a close game, it could cost them.

Duke should be the favorite heading into Saturday evening’s game with the Tigers, but it needs to do a few things in order to guarantee victory as well. First, it has to take care of the ball and manage Clemson’s pressure. North Carolina got easy basket after easy basket early in the game until the Tigers finally took off the press. Duke has the athletes on the wings to finish in the open court, but Paulus can’t turn the ball over in the backcourt. Secondly, they have to try and get Booker and Mays in foul trouble. If either of those players is out of the game, it negates the inside advantage Clemson has. Also, because Duke spreads the floor so well, it will bring the bigs away from the basket and open up driving lanes for Gerald Henderson, DeMarcus Nelson, etc. Lastly, Duke has to pressure the perimeter players for Clemson. It’s almost a foregone conclusion that Booker and Mays will have solid games, but shutting down K.C. Rivers, Cliff Hammonds and Terrence Oglesby will be important. If they get hot, Clemson is much more difficult to defend.

In the end, Duke will come out on top – and I think it will be fairly handily. The Blue Devils are playing at home, where they are extremely difficult to beat, and they are playing very solid basketball right now. On the other hand, Clemson is struggling, although they might have righted the ship in its last game against North Carolina State. Either way, Duke has too much perimeter talent and they are also playing some of the best defense in the country – the Devils haven’t given up more than 70 points in a game since December 1. Although that mark could be in doubt on Saturday, the winning streak, on the other hand, will definitely continue.

Prediction: Duke 81, Clemson 70

Game of the Week: #4 Washington State at #5 UCLA

Jeff Borzello — Fri, 11 Jan 2008 09:03:30 -0800

Game of the Week: No. 4 Washington State at No. 5 UCLA (Saturday, 2:30 PM, FSN)

Since conference play began a couple of weeks ago, the amount of quality games every weekend has increased dramatically. Every two hours or so, another couple of must-see games appear on the docket, leading to jam-packed Saturdays and Sundays of intense college basketball. However, on some weekends, one game overshadows the rest. That will be the case this weekend, when the west coast and Pac-10 take center stage. Two top-five teams clash as No. 4-ranked and undefeated Washington State takes on perennial power, No. 5 UCLA. Most people don’t get a chance to see WSU on a regular basis and UCLA normally only appears in the late-night slots, which makes this game even more interesting. Be sure to tune in; it should be fun.

Washington State Team Breakdown

Washington State came out of nowhere last season to make a run at the Pac-10 title and eventually earned a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament before bowing out in the second round. The Cougars have continued their stellar play this season, running off 13 straight wins to open the season, including road wins over Washington, Baylor and Gonzaga. (When asked at the Pac-10 coaches’ teleconference this week about the difficulty of going undefeated, WSU coach Tony Bennett responded jokingly: “You have to ask the Patriots.”) The Cougars play outstanding defense and force teams to play at one of the slowest paces in the country. They are ranked No. 4 in defensive efficiency and No. 56 in offensive efficiency.

Up front, 6-10 junior center Aron Baynes has made a huge impact due to his vast improvement since last season. He is the team’s leading rebounder and third-leading scorer, and provides the Cougars with a legit inside presence that they didn’t get on a consistent basis last year. Robbie Cowgill is another efficient big man. He rebounds and defends well, and doesn’t commit unnecessary fouls. Daven Harmeling will come off the bench. According to Bennett, Harmeling gave them a lift against Washington despite his thumb being padded up. “Hopefully it’s even better this week,” Bennett said. Caleb Forrest also sees minutes.

UCLA Team Breakdown

UCLA has been one of the nation’s most consistent programs over the past few seasons, and this year seems no different. The Bruins are 14-1, with their lone loss coming by two points at home to Texas. UCLA owns victories over Michigan State, Davidson, Maryland, California and Stanford – the latter two coming on the road to open Pac-10 play. The Bruins are one of the best defensive teams in the country and look more explosive offensively than they have in recent years. They are ranked No. 17 in offensive efficiency and No. 7 in defensive efficiency.

UCLA owns one of the best perimeter groups in the country. Point guard Darren Collison is among the elite at his position despite being hampered by a variety of injuries and illnesses this season, most recently a hospitalization due to food poisoning. He is a very good passer and shooter who is also a dynamite defender. Josh Shipp is a big-time scorer on the wing who has the potential to have a break-out game at any time. He has scored in double-figures in all but one game this season, including five with at least 18 points. Russell Westbrook has been exceptional at both ends of the floor. He is very athletic who creates havoc with his length on the defensive end and can finish around the rim.
UCLA’s frontcourt is much more talented than it has been in both of its Final Four runs of the past two seasons. The main reason? Kevin Love, “the best freshman I’ve ever had,” according to coach Ben Howland.. The 6-9 big man is one of the most dominant post players in the country – so it’s no surprise Howland says Love isn’t getting the ball enough. “We need to get him more touches,” Howland said. “He’s so good with the ball in his hands and makes such good decisions.” Luc Richard Mbah a Moute is a versatile forward who can do a variety of things at both ends of the floor, and is capable of producing the occasional big game or double-double. Lorenzo Mata and Alfred Aboya are solid rebounders and defenders who can also get garbage points.

Game Analysis and Prediction

This should be one of the best games of the season. It might not captivate the viewer with fast-break baskets and high-octane offense, but both teams play outstanding defense and limit mistakes on the offensive end. Don’t be surprised to see these teams meet three more times – once more in the regular season, once in the Pac-10 title game, and then again in San Antonio at the Final Four. They’re that good. Washington State wants to slow the game down and force UCLA to guard them for an extended amount of time before running and executing its offense. On the other end, the Cougars like to “play right to the three-point line and pack it in,” according to Howland. “They don’t gamble, they’re physical and they contest every shot.” UCLA also plays outstanding defense, but with its ultra-quick backcourt of Darren Collison and Russell Westbrook, the Bruins can afford to pressure the ball more after the ball-handler passes mid-court. Offensively, UCLA has a variety of options, including plenty of players who can shoot the ball or penetrate to the basket, as well as Kevin Love down low. Given Love’s unbelievable passing ability, it would benefit UCLA to get him as many touches as he can.

If Washington State is to pull off the win on the road, it is going to need to do several things. In general, coach Tony Bennett said it best: “When you’re on the road, you really better play good basketball or you don’t have a chance.” More specifically, first, Aron Baynes and Robbie Cowgill need to contain Kevin Love down low. Neither player has a major problem with foul trouble, but they will need to wear Love down with their physicality. Love has trouble with conditioning; WSU has to take advantage of that. Second, Kyle Weaver, Derrick Low and Taylor Rochestie have to take care of the ball against UCLA’s steal-hounds in the backcourt. Darren Collison and Russell Westbrook will pick their pocket if given an opportunity. Lastly, and possibly most importantly, Washington State has to control tempo and stop the ball. WSU doesn’t want to get into a running game, so they will need to limit UCLA’s fast-break opportunities. Josh Shipp loves shooting in transition and Collison might be faster than anyone in the country besides Tywon Lawson. Outlet passes from Love force teams to constantly pay attention defensively.

On the other side, UCLA needs to take advantage of its huge edge down low. Neither Baynes or Cowgill can stop Love one-on-one and UCLA has too many other options for them to consistently double-team him every possession. Love has not been getting enough touches and opportunities lately, and UCLA needs to do a better job of getting him the ball. Next, they will have to stay focused and not get impatient against Washington State’s defense. “They’re a very difficult team to deal with because of their patience and discipline at both ends of the floor,” Howland said. “Anyone who plays them has their hands full.” Weaver has the ability to single-handedly shut down anyone on UCLA’s perimeter, so the Bruins will need to limit his impact. Lastly, UCLA’s defense needs to force Washington State to shoot outside jumpers – outside of Rochestie and Low, who have hit a combined 48 threes, the Cougars don’t have any shooters.

In the end, this game will live up to the hype. Neither team gets blown out and both teams are too good to let the other team pull away at any point in the game. The difference will be the home-court advantage that UCLA has, as well as its edge inside with Kevin Love. Washington State will need a huge game from its bigs in order to pull the upset.

Prediction: UCLA 64, Washington State 61

Game of the Week: #1 North Carolina at #19 Clemson

Jeff Borzello — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 09:41:25 -0800

Game of the Week: No. 1 North Carolina at No. 19 Clemson (Sunday, January 6, 7:30 PM, FSN)

With 2007 finally in our rear view mirror and conference play around the country really heating up this week, the best part of the college basketball season has already hit the ground running. Most teams have only played one or two league games so far, but many squads are prepared to separate themselves from the pack. For several major-conference teams, that means road games, no more cupcakes and generally stiffer competition. This week features several big-time match-ups, including plenty of quality contests in the Pac-10 and the Big East, as well as some interesting non-conference games. The best of the weekend, though, features a Final Four favorite heading on the road for its toughest test of the season so far.

UNC Breakdown

North Carolina came into the season as one of the top candidates for preseason No. 1 and the national championship – and it has not disappointed so far. The Tar Heels are 14-0, a record that includes wins over nearly every type of team in the country. Roy Williams’ crew has defeated perennial NCAA Tournament teams (Kentucky, Ohio State); top mid-majors (Davidson, Kent State, Valparaiso); and quality west coast teams (Nevada, BYU, UC Santa Barbara). You can’t say UNC hasn’t been tested yet. The Tar Heels are the top-ranked team in offensive efficiency and are ranked No. 33 in defensive efficiency. North Carolina is led by one of the best players in the country, junior big man Tyler Hansbrough. The All-America is a dominant big man who has taken his game to another level this season, scoring at least 20 points in all but three games this year. He is an efficient scorer who is also a relentless rebounder. In the backcourt are sophomore Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington. Lawson might be the fastest end-to-end player in college basketball, while Ellington is a premier shooter who provides outside balance for Hansbrough. Danny Green, a very good three-point shooter and scorer, and lockdown defender Marcus Ginyard split time on the wing. Starting next to Hansbrough down low is sophomore Deon Thompson. He averaged 10 points, eight rebounds and more than three blocks per game in the three contests leading up to the Kent State game. The bench has been depleted lately, as guard Bobby Frasor tore a ligament in his knee last week and will miss the rest of the season, while Quentin Thomas injured his left ankle and has missed the last two games. Furthermore, big man Alex Stepheson missed the Kent State game for an illness in his family back in California.

Clemson Breakdown

In what seems to be a recurring theme for Clemson, the Tigers got off to yet another hot start, starting 10-0 this season. It was the third year in a row that Clemson began a season with at least 10 straight wins. However, the Tigers are looking to turn this season’s great start into an NCAA Tournament berth – something the previous two teams couldn’t do. Clemson’s lone loss was a three-point defeat at the hands of unbeaten Mississippi in Puerto Rico, but the Tigers own wins over Mississippi State, Alabama, Purdue and South Carolina. They are ranked No. 30 in offensive efficiency and No. 16 in defensive efficiency. Clemson is a deep and balanced team, with nine players averaging at least 11 minutes per game but only one getting more than 30. Guard K.C. Rivers leads the way. Last year’s sixth man extraordinaire has been excellent in the starting lineup, scoring in double-figures in every game this year. He is flanked on the perimeter by freshman point guard Demontez Stitt, who has improved with every game, and senior Cliff Hammonds, an all-around solid player who takes care of the ball. Sixth man Terrence Oglesby ranks second on the team in scoring and is averaging 17 points per game in his last six contests, despite playing just 20.3 minutes per game. Up front, athletic big man James Mays and physical rebounder Trevor Booker start. Mays contributes more than numbers – although they are impressive. He is at the top of the team’s press and changes the game defensively. Booker is a beast on the glass and has also shown the ability to score. Raymond Sykes has shown potential off the bench, while Jerai Grant also provides depth. Wing David Potter might be the team’s best three-point shooter.

Game Analysis

What a way to kick off conference play in the ACC. Both teams are expected to finish in the upper third of the league, with North Carolina projected to win the conference and Clemson in the three-to-five range. Not only is this game filled with quality players and teams, though, it is going to be fun to watch. Both teams like to play up-tempo basketball and love to create easy transition points with their defense. Clemson traps from the opening tip and thrives off chaos and turnovers, while North Carolina has plenty of athletes and can get from defense-to-offense faster and more efficiently than anyone in the country.

If Clemson is going to hold serve on its homecourt and knock off the unbeaten Tar Heels, it needs to limit North Carolina’s transition offense. Ty Lawson loves to push the ball off made and missed baskets and can find the open man with ease. Wayne Ellington and Marcus Ginyard are constantly running on the wings and often get uncontested lay-ups. Freshman Demontez Stitt can get rattled and turn the ball over against Lawson; he needs to get Clemson into its offense and force North Carolina to defend the Tigers in the half-court. Also, getting North Carolina into foul trouble is key. With all the aforementioned injuries and absences, the Tar Heels aren’t as deep as usual. Making Roy Williams go to his bench early would help Clemson in a major way. Defensively, it needs to force turnovers and get easy baskets off them. If the extremely quick Lawson consistently breaks the press, it will be lay-ups and dunks galore all day for North Carolina.

On the other side, the Tar Heels have to get the ball inside early and often to Tyler Hansbrough. He has the ability to dominate James Mays and Trevor Booker, as well as get them in foul trouble. On the perimeter, Danny Green and Ellington need to knock down their three-point shots. Clemson is going to have to double-team Hansbrough – Green and Ellington need to make the Tigers pay. Furthermore, Lawson needs to handle Clemson’s press and get North Carolina into its offense. Constantly turning the ball over in the backcourt would be a nightmare for the Tar Heels, as Clemson lives off its defense and momentum. The difference, despite Clemson having the homecourt advantage, is going to be Ty Lawson’s ability to break the Tigers’ break with his quickness and passing ability, and Tyler Hansbrough’s dominance inside. Clemson likely won’t be able to handle Hansbrough down low, and will also struggle to score if it can’t get points off turnovers. Expect plenty of points, though.

Prediction: North Carolina 88, Clemson 83