Bracket Tips

Bracket Tactics: Wednesday Night's Tip

Jon Teitel — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 19:47:25 -0700

Leading up to the 2008 NCAA Tournament, we'll be presenting daily tips to help you fill in your bracket.

Today's Bracket Tactic

FACT: While #7 seeds are 57-35 vs. #10 seeds in the 1st round since 1985, #10 seeds have had much more success against #2 seeds in the 2nd round: #10 seeds are 17-18 in the 2nd round during that time (including an average of 1 upset win per year over the past 11 years), while #7 seeds are only 17-40 in the 2nd round over the same time period.

BRACKET TIP: Pick two or three #7 seeds to win in the 1st round, but try to find one #10 seed who can make it all the way to the Sweet 16.

Editor's Follow Up: Based on Jon's tip today.. the best bet for a 10 seed advancing beyond the first round would probably be Davidson or Arizona.

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National Media Final Four Picks: UNC & UCLA Dominate

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 21:03:55 -0700

We've made our predictions, but what do other national experts and media publications have to say? Here's a sampling of what some of the big names say about the 2008 NCAA Tournament. Note that just about everyone picked UNC and UCLA to make the finals.. either we're all stupid or there's really two clear-cut favorites this year. Time will tell.

Media	Champ	Runner Up	Final 4	Final 4
About.com	UNC	UCLA	Pittsburgh	G'Town
Bleacher Report	Tenn.	Kansas	Texas	UCONN
Frank Burlison	UCLA	Kansas	Texas	UNC
Charlotte Observer	UNC	UCLA	Texas	Wisconsin
Chicago Daily H.	Kansas	Pittsburgh	UNC	Xavier
CollegeHoops.net	UCLA	UNC	Memphis	G'Town
Dallas Morn. News	UNC	UCLA	Texas	Kansas
Seth Davis	UCLA	Kansas	Texas	Tennessee
Mike DeCourcy	UCLA	Kansas	Memphis	UNC
Gregg Doyel CBS	UCLA	UNC	Memphis	Wisconsin
ESPN Readers	UNC	UCLA	Memphis	Kansas
Clark Kellogg	UCLA	UNC	Memphis	G'Town
MLive.com	UNC	UCLA	Memphis	G'Town
NY Newsday	UCLA	UNC	Texas	G'Town
OC Register	UCLA	UNC	Texas	Kansas
Gary Parrish CBS	UCLA	Kansas	Texas	UNC
Bill Simmons	UNC	UCLA	Memphis	USC
Grant Wahl Si.com	UCLA	Kansas	Texas	Louisville

- Complete 2008 NCAA Tournament Coverage

- NCA Tournament Capsules

Poll: Which Double-Digit Seed Will Advance the Farthest?

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 13:53:52 -0700

Straight-Forward Tourney Commentary: Overrated Teams

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 13:24:32 -0700

This column is not the place for in-depth team information (which you can find here), or in-depth game previews (which you can find here).. this here is all about straight-forward, honest, to-the-point, useful NCAA Tournament commentary:

Overrated Teams

Vanderbilt (4)

Why? 7-7 away from home is rather pathetic for a 4 seed, especially considering their best non-home win was on a neutral floor against 71st ranked Utah State. Luckily for the Commodores, Siena shouldn't be an issue in the first round.. but they might not make it past the Round of 32.

Davidson (10)

Why? Everybody loves to love Davidson and Stephen Curry. But they didn't even win a single Top 100 game all year. The only other tournament team with a similar mark of futility is 15th seeded Belmont. If Davidson was also a 15 seed, I'd say they were dangerous and capable of surprising someone, but they're overseeded as a 10. No doubt they'll give Gonzaga a serious run in Round One, but too many people will fall in love with the Wildcats.

Kansas (1)

Why? The Jayhawks only decent non-conference win was against USC early in the year. In fact, you could argue that their only other decent win all year was in the Big 12 Title game against Texas. The Jayhawks looked good on Sunday, but I don't think they're built to make a deep tourney run. Mainly for two reasons: A) I don't trust Bill Self's coaching ability compared to the other big-timers like Howland, Coach K, and Calipari. B) They lack a true go-to star, which will hurt them down the stretch.

Arizona (10)

Why? This bothers me because I've always tended to like the Wildcats.. but really this team is a fraud. In the last month, they have one win over a top 250 ranked team. Considering Oregon State is basically a D2 team, you could say Zona finished 2-8 against D1 teams. Jerryd Bayless is no doubt a stud talent, but Chase Budinger seems unwilling to become a big-time player, and its not fair for Bayless to have to do everything for them to win. If you think Beasley plays a big role for Kansas State, then Bayless take it to another level. He's often a one-man team.

Oregon (9)

Why? I'm not suggesting Oregon doesn't deserve to be a tourney team, but a 9 seed was oddly high. None of the numbers suggest the Ducks will do damage beyond the opening round. 6-10 away from home is weak.. 5-5 to finish the season is weak.. and just 4 wins in 13 tries against Top 50 teams is weaker. There's no doubt Oregon can beat Mississippi St in the opening round, but the #9 seed wasn't fair to begin with.

Kentucky (11)

Why? Is the March version of Kentucky really that much better than the December version that lost to Garder Webb, Houston, UAB, and San Diego? Sure the Wildcats have improved somewhat in recent months, but the gaudy 12-4 SEC record is mostly due to the overrated nature of the entire conference. There was no greater proof of the league's mediocrity than Georgia's run through the SEC tournament. The Wildcats 4-8 record away from home is one of the worst amongst Top 100 RPI teams. In fact the only one's with a worse record are Oklahoma St, Nebraska, and Wake Forest.. ie, NIT teams. Kentucky is basically a glorified NIT team.

- My Underrated Teams will be up soon.

Bracket Tactics: Tuesday's Tip of the Day

Jon Teitel — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 10:59:23 -0700

Leading up to the 2008 NCAA Tournament, we'll be presenting daily tips to help you fill in your bracket.

Today's Bracket Tactic

FACT: #14 seeds who score less than 76.5 PPG are 2-54 in the 1^st round since 1985, and only two #14 seeds have made the Sweet 16 since 1985 (Cleveland State in 1986 and Chattanooga in 1997).

BRACKET TIP: Do not pick Georgia because they score less than 76.5 PPG, but if you are feeling lucky, you can pick one of Boise State/CSU Fullerton/Cornell to win 1 game because they each score over 76.5 PPG.

Editor's Tip: Don't be fooled by overall records. Some teams are great at home, but struggle to win true road games. Similarly, its not enough to look just at road games.. but you need to check out neutral records as well. If a team's combined road & neutral record is substantially worse then their home record.. look out. One prime example is Vanderbiilt. The Commodores are 19-0 at home, but just 7-7 on the road.

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Poll: What Is the Most Likely 12-5 Upset?

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 17 Mar 2008 18:14:45 -0700

Writers Picks: Top Upsets & Surprise Teams

CHN — Sun, 16 Mar 2008 20:53:57 -0700

Need help filling in your bracket? CHN writers give their predictions below about who will be the big winners and losers of this year's bracket. See how these picks compare to CHN's Official Prediction.

Surprise = Team that will exceed expectations/seed

Failure = Team that will underperform seed

Upset = Projected 1st round upset special

Writer	Brubaker	Carpentier	Fox	Johnson
Surprise	USC	USC	Davidson	WKU
Failure	Wisconsin	Duke	Drake	Tennessee
Upset	Siena	Siena	WKU	Siena
	over Vandy	over Vandy	over Drake	over Vandy

Writer	Teitel	Tomassini	Wesler	White
Surprise	Pitt	Temple	Stanford	Kansas St
Failure	Xavier	Georgetown	Duke	Memphis
Upset	Kansas St	Oral Roberts	Villanova	WKU
	over USC	over Pittsburgh	over Clemson	over Drake

What can we make of these picks? USC is a favorite to advance to the Sweet Sixteen at the expense of Wisconsin (a belief shared by CHN's Official Prediction.) Western Kentucky and Siena are trendy upset picks.. while thoughts on Pitt are mixed.

See what these writers had to say about the Final Four.

Bracket Tactics: Sunday's Tip of the Day

Jon Teitel — Sun, 16 Mar 2008 20:23:39 -0700

Leading up to the 2008 NCAA Tournament, we'll be presenting daily tips to help you fill in your bracket.

Today's Bracket Tactic

FACT: While #15 seeds are 4-88 in the 1^st round of the NCAA Tournament since 1985, and 0-4 in the 2^nd round, the 4 Cinderellas who did win a game each entered the tourney having gone 9-1 in their last 10 games, and had an overall winning percentage of 80% or less.

BRACKET TIP: American, Austin Peay, and UMBC each fit these criteria, while Belmont exceeds it by virtue of winning each of their last 13 games.

So, if you are feeling lucky, feel free to pick 1 of these 4 teams to wear the glass slipper in round 1, but under no circumstances should you pick any of them to advance to the Sweet 16.

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Bracket Tactics: Saturday's Tip of the Day

Shawn Siegel — Sat, 15 Mar 2008 14:22:55 -0700

Leading up to the 2008 NCAA Tournament, we'll be presenting daily tips to help you fill in your bracket.

Today's Bracket Tactic

FACT: The last time that both teams in a title game were making their first-ever appearances in a Final 4 was 1945 (when Oklahoma A&M played NYU).
BRACKET TIP: If you pick Butler, Clemson, Gonzaga, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, or Xavier to play in the title game, then make sure you have them facing off against a team that has previously been to a Final 4.

Today's tip from the editor: One seeds tend to be the real deal.. substantially bigger locks than any other seed. No matter how overrated you think Memphis is, there's historically been an 86% chance that they at least make the 3rd round.

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Bracket Tactics: Friday's Tip of the Day

Jon Teitel — Fri, 14 Mar 2008 10:37:26 -0700

Leading up to the 2008 NCAA Tournament, we'll be presenting daily tips to help you fill in your bracket.

Today's Bracket Tactic

FACT: 20 of the past 23 titles have been won by teams who score 77+ PPG and have a scoring margin of 10+ PPG

BRACKET TIP: Pick one of Duke, Gonzaga, Kansas, Kansas St, Memphis, Notre Dame, Tennessee*, or North Carolina to win it all this year

*Note that we told you not to pick Tennessee based on yesterday's tip.. so they only get half a thumbs up!

Today's tip from the editor: Don't overdo it with Cinderella runs to the Final Four. For every George Mason.. there's 50 Top 3 seeds that make the Final Four. To win your pool, you'll need to nail the Final Four.. so keep your crazy picks to the first couple of rounds. It might seem boring, but focus on the prize!

- Archived Bracket Tactics

- More 2008 NCAA Tournament Coverage

- Sign up for the free CHN Tournament Challenge and win great prizes!