Pac-10 Fantasy Basketball Preview

    
November 5th, 2008

This is the fifth of six fantasy stats projections of BCS conference starters. The lineups are based on the Starting Fives series of articles released two weeks ago, along with a couple of changes due to recent developments.

 

For an idea of whether I know what I'm talking about, check out last year's Pac-10 Stats Projection. Here's last year's USC projections compared to reality:

 

USC Projected vs 2007-08 Reality

G OJ Mayo - 14, 4, 6  vs  21, 4, 3
G Daniel Hackett - 10, 3, 3  vs  9, 3, 3
G Dwight Lewis - 9, 3, 2  vs 11, 2, 1
F Davon Jefferson - 11, 5, 2  vs  12, 6, 1
F Taj Gibson - 14, 9, 2  vs 11, 8, 1

* By far, my worst projections were in the Pac-10.. but USC was rather average. Notice how much I underestimated Mayo's scoring impact, and overestimated his ball distribution.

 

Keep in mind stats are highly dependent on minutes. My biggest misses are always guys who either win or lose starting spots unexpectedly.


THE PAC-10

 

ARIZONA

G Nic Wise - 14, 3, 5
G Chase Budinger - 20, 5, 3
F Jamelle Horne - 8, 5, 1
F Jordan Hill - 14, 9, 1
C Jeff Withey - 8, 7, 1*
6 Brendon Lavender - 6, 2, 2

Notes: I thought Budinger would become a 20 ppg guy last year, maybe I was just a year off. With Bayless in the pros, Wise will see a big jump in scoring..

 

*Withey's status with the program is uncertain at this point, as he has requested to leave the school.


ARIZONA STATE

G Derek Glasser - 8, 2, 4
G Ty Abbott - 9, 3, 2
G James Harden - 21, 6, 5
F Jerren Ship - 7, 4, 1
F Jeff Pendergraph - 14, 7, 1
6 Rihards Kuksiks - 7, 3, 1

Notes: Harden is really that good, while Pendergraph is a highly efficient offensive player. 

CALIFORNIA

G Jerome Randle - 11, 3, 4
G Patrick Christopher - 17, 4, 3
F Theo Robertson - 11, 5, 2
F Harper Kemp - 8, 5, 2

F Jamal Boykin - 10, 6, 1
6 DJ Seeley - 9, 3, 2

Notes: Robertson returns from a red-shirt season, and should put up the best numbers of his career.  Cristopher should see even more shots now that Ryan Anderson is in the pros.

OREGON
G Kamyron Brown - 8, 3, 5
G Tajuan Porter - 17, 3, 3
G LeKendric Longmire - 9, 3, 1
F Joevan Catron - 12, 7, 2
C Michael Dunigan - 9, 6, 1
6 Frantz Dorsainvil - 6, 4, 0

Notes: Porter really struggled shooting the ball last year, but his production should bounce back. If only because he'll be force-fed the ball. Catron could be the team's most improved player.

OREGON STATE

G Josh Tarver - 7, 3, 3
G Seth Tarver - 12, 5, 3
G Lathen Wallace - 12, 4, 1

F Omari Johnson - 9, 6, 1
F Daniel Deane - 10, 6, 1
6 Roland Schaftenaar - 6, 5, 1

Notes: Wallace really came on late last year scoring the ball, and could emerge as a highly productive player. Deane, a Utah transfer, could end up being the Beavers best player.

STANFORD

G Mitch Johnson - 8, 4, 6
G Anthony Goods - 14, 3, 2
F Landry Fields - 8, 4, 1
F Lawrence Hill - 14, 6, 1
F Josh Owens - 7, 5, 1
6 Da'Veed Dildy - 7, 2, 2

Notes: Hill's numbers took a nose-dive last year, but could come full circle. Goods will be the team's other main scorer.

UCLA

G Darren Collison - 17, 4, 4
G Jrue Holiday - 15, 4, 5
G Josh Sipp - 12, 4, 2
F James Keefe - 7, 5, 1
C J'Mison Morgan - 8, 6, 1
6 Alfred Aboya - 5, 5, 1

Notes: With Holiday's ability to handle the point, it might free up Collison for even more shots. Drew Gordon should also put up similar numbers as Keefe/Morgan.

USC

G Daniel Hackett - 9, 4, 4
G Dwight Lewis - 13, 3, 2
F Demar DeRozan - 15, 6, 3 
F Kasey Cunningham - 6, 4, 1
C Taj Gibson - 12, 9, 1
6 Donte Smith - 8, 3, 2

Notes: DeRozan won't dominate the ball quite like Mayo, and should allow Gibson & Thomas to increase their production.

 

WASHINGTON

G Venoy Overton - 6, 3, 4
G Justin Dentmon - 12, 3, 2 
F Quincy Pondexter - 12, 6, 2
F Matthew Bryan-Amaning - 9, 6, 1
F Jon Brockman - 19, 11, 1
6 Isaiah Thomas - 11, 2, 2

Notes: Thomas might become their 2nd best scorer outside of Brockman. I don't expect Brockman to improve on last year's impressive numbers.

 

WASHINGTON STATE

G Taylor Rochestie - 14, 4, 5
G Nikola Koprivica - 8, 3, 1
G Klay Thompson - 11, 3, 3
F Daven Hamerling - 8, 3, 1
F Aron Baynes - 13, 8, 1
6 Caleb Forrest - 6, 4, 0

Notes: Baynes & Thompson become the Cougars players, while Klay Thompson might be the Pac-10's top newcomer outside of LA.

 

Projected Pac-10 Leaders

 

Top PPG
1) James Harden (21)
2) Chase Budinger (20)
3) Jon Brockman (19)

 

Top RPG
1) Jon Brockman (11)
2) Jordan Hill (9)

3) Aron Baynes (8)

 

Top APG
1) Mitch Johnson (6)
2) Brown/Harden/Holiday/Rochestie/Wise (5)

 

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