January 10th

Joel’s Monday Mailbag

Each Monday, Joel Welser will be bringing you his Monday Mailbag.  If you have a question which you'd like Joel to answer, email jwelser_chn@ameritech.net.  He’ll post and answer as many questions as possible.  Please include your first name and home state when contacting Joel. 

One question each week is chosen as the "Question of the Week", and is answered by a few CHN staffers.  At the end of each Monday Mailbag, Joel presents his "Team of the Week" and his "Thoughts of the Week."  Visit the Mailbag Archive for past installments.

Question of the Week

 - The question of the week is answered by multiple CHN staffers -

Joel,

Now that we’re in conference play, does it look like the Big Ten and Pac-10 will get more teams into the NCAA Tournament?  If so, who will make the big dance from those conferences that didn’t last year?

From Ken,

Indiana

Kristi Chartrand

Absolutely not. In my mind, those two conferences aren’t much different then last year. Washington and Arizona are shoe-ins in the Pac-10 but after that who knows? In the Big Ten it’s Michigan State, Illinois…maybe one or two others, but nothing else is certain. Washington is solid, and as of now, the best team in the Pac-10 hands down. Illinois is tops in the Big Ten without question. But the two conferences are top heavy followed by a lot of mediocrity. When people even entertain the notion of Illinois going undefeated, then you know the conference competition is weak.

As for teams that could make the tourney who watched from home last year Iowa, Oregon and yes, maybe even Oregon State could make the dance this year. I see most of these teams as early exits even if they do make the dance. There’s a ton of uncertainty in both of these conferences but I believe the mediocrity will keep teams from rising above the rest.

Jon Teitel

Big 10 (3-3 record in the tournament)
#7 seed Michigan State lost in the opening round to Nevada (who then went on to upset Gonzaga), #6 seed Wisconsin lost a 2nd-round game in Milwaukee to a higher-seeded Pitt team, and #5 seed Illinois won each of their first two games by over 15 points before a losing by 10 to Duke.
Pac-10 (1-3 record in the tournament)
#9 seed Arizona was a 1st-round loser to Seton Hall, #8 seed Washington got stunned by UAB in the 1st-round (which became a better loss after UAB’s 2nd-round upset win over Kentucky), and #1 seed Stanford was upset in the 2nd-round by Alabama.

Based on these efforts, the selection committee may not be inclined to extend more than 3 invitations to each of these conferences in March, but here is one man’s prediction.

Of the 3 Big 10 teams who made it last year, I think only 2 will make it back this year:
ILLINOIS: With a 15-0 record and a #1 ranking, they will get an invitation, and probably a #1 seed.
MICHIGAN STATE: With a 9-2 record (losses to top-25 teams Duke and George Washington) and a top-20 ranking, they will get an invitation.
WISCONSIN: With a 9-2 record (including wins over top-25 teams Maryland and Alabama), they might get an invitation, but there are stronger teams in their conference.

Of the teams who did not make it last year, here are my thoughts on the top contenders:
Iowa: With a 12-2 record (a loss to top-5 team North Carolina and a 2-point loss to Michigan, but wins over top-25 teams Louisville and Texas) and a top-20 ranking, the Hawkeyes should get an invitation. If they can win 2/3 of their conference games, they will finish with an overall record of 22-7 and will definitely make it. Even if they go 8-8 in conference and end up at 20-9, that could be good enough as well.
Ohio State: With an 11-3 record (their only loss in the past 30 days was to top-ranked Illinois), the Buckeyes might get an invitation. If they can win 2/3 of their conference games, they will finish with an overall record of 21-8 and could make it.
Minnesota: With a 10-3 record and an 8-game winning streak, the Golden Gophers might get an invitation. If they can win 2/3 of their conference games, they will finish with an overall record of 20-9 and could make it.

Of the 3 Pac-10 teams who made it last year, I think only 2 will make it back this year:
WASHINGTON: With a 12-1 record and a top-20 ranking, they will get an invitation.
ARIZONA: With an 11-2 record and a top-20 ranking, they will get an invitation.
STANFORD: With a 6-6 record (including losses to Santa Clara and Washington State), they will not get an invitation.

Of the teams who did not make it last year, here are my thoughts on the top contenders:
ARIZONA STATE: With an 11-2 record (a loss to in-state rival Arizona and a 1-point loss to UTEP), the Sun Devils should get an invitation. If they can win 2/3 of their conference games, they will finish with an overall record of 23-7 and will definitely make it. Even if they go 9-9 in conference and end up at 20-10, that could be good enough as well.
OREGON STATE: With a 10-3 record and a 6-game winning streak, the Beavers have an outside chance. If they can win 2/3 of their conference games, they will finish with an overall record of 20-9.
OREGON: With a 9-2 record (losses to UCLA and top-ranked Illinois), the Ducks have a decent chance. If they can win 2/3 of their conference games, they will finish with an overall record of 20-7 and probably make it.

Shawn Siegel

You have to figure that the Big Ten will get more teams into the Big Dance then the Pac10.  Illinois is clearly a lock, and Wisconsin and Michigan State are guarantees as well.  At least one of Michigan or Iowa will make the tournament.  If you want a wildcard contender from the Big Ten, it would have to be Northwestern who now has the services of big man Michael Thompson.  Despite Minnesota and Ohio State's nice non-conference start, neither of those teams should have a chance of making it.  In the Pac10, Washington and Arizona are the only locks.  Arizona State is the front-runner for a 3rd big.  After that, its really hard to find a potential 4th bid.  I think the Pac10 is a 3 bid conference at the max this year.  Oregon State has a solid record, but the Beavers have bad losses to Georgia and East Carolina, and have been blown out by UNLV.  Stanford is only 6-6 right now, and even with a good conference record, would not really deserve to make it.

Joel Welser

The Big Ten is looking very strong this year.  And, more importantly, a fourth team has stepped up and thus far proven they belong in the big dance.  Illinois, Wisconsin and Michigan State made it last year and Iowa is making a case for itself through the non-conference schedule this season, although a slow start in conference play isn’t helping.  With an impressive RPI rating for the conference, those four teams shouldn’t have a problem making the big dance, barring a collapse in conference play, which is very possible from a Boo Wade-less Wisconsin team.  There may be room for a fifth out of the Big Ten if another team can step up and have an impressive conference season.  Ohio State, Minnesota and even Michigan or Northwestern had good enough out of conference games to conceivably go dancing if they can finish in the top three of the Big Ten standings.  But it won’t happen for a whole plethora of reasons, including the fact that OSU isn’t eligible for post season play.  Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Iowa are the four that will most likely make the NCAA Tournament, if the Big Ten is lucky.

In the Pac 10, the picture is even fuzzier.  Washington and Arizona won’t have much trouble returning to the NCAA Tournament.  After that the conference is a pretty much a grab bag.  You never know what you’re going to get with eight teams that are quite evenly matched.  Again, the conference’s RPI is notable.  As of January 3^rd the Pac 10 projected RPI was only second to the ACC.  Somebody else has to play themselves into the big dance.  The problem is, none of the eight remaining teams have played themselves out of it yet.  Stanford, at 6-6, has the worst record in the league and is the least likely to return to playing in March.  Everybody still has a chance at this point, although some more realistic than others.  With the Pac Ten doing so well out of conference, a team or two will prove itself in conference play and make the tourney.  Who will it be?  If I had to go out on a limb, I’d stick with Oregon joining Washington and Arizona in the tourney.  It may be hard for the selection committee to ignore a fourth place team in the conference that goes 11-7 or 12-6 though.

Have a question?  Email Joel at jwelser_chn@ameritech.net, and please include your first name and home state. We’ll post and answer as many as possible.  All questions may be published or edited unless requested otherwise.

Joel’s Team of the Week

Bucknell Bison

It’s been a long time coming for the Bison to be named team of the week.  They have beaten Niagara, St. Joe’s and Pittsburgh consecutively, the latter two on the road.  Knocking off #10 ranked Pitt is a school record for the highest ranked team Bucknell has defeated.  Chris McNaughton led the way with a team high 17 points.  Charles Lee and Kevin Bettencourt added 14 and 13, respectively.  The difference was on the free throw line where the Bison hit 14 of 16.  The Panthers shot just 9-20 from the charity stripe.  

Joel’s Thoughts of the Week

How exciting is it now that conference play is here?  The first week saw tons of upsets, reminding all of us that everything changes when conference play arrives.  Boston College knocked off UConn, Houston beat Louisville, Texas A&M put a major scare into the Jayhawks, Michigan upset Iowa, Georgetown slipped by Pitt, Vanderbilt handed it to Bama, Villanova slaughtered West Virginia, Duquesne beat Dayton in double OT and that was just on Wednesday. 

It should continue to be exciting from the ACC to the MEAC.  Playing the non-conference games is fun, but nothing beats going up against a conference rival. 

Have a question?  Email Joel at jwelser_chn@ameritech.net, and please include your first name and home state. We’ll post and answer as many as possible.  All questions may be published or edited unless requested otherwise.