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How Did the DCI/RPI Projections Compare to Reality? - March 14th, 2005

More info on how the DC projections works

Email Dan with your questions or comments at gauchodan@charter.net

 

How did the DCI & RPI rankings do in predicting the NCAA tournament field?  Our own rankings guru Dan Curry combined his final DCI ranking with the final RPI ranking, and projected the field based on this consensus ranking.  The DCI/RPI felt that Buffalo and St Joseph's were more deserving than Northern Iowa and Iowa State who got in instead.  In terms of the seedings, the DCI/RPI was very close to reality for the top seeds and the bottom seeds, but rated the middle-seeded Mid-Major teams more highly than the committee.

 

DCI RPI Sum Proj Seed Actual Seed Automatic Bids (31) DCI RPI   W L   Proj
2 1 3 1 1 Illinois 74.46 0.6585   32 1   32 1
3 5 8 1 1 Duke 73.74 0.6498   25 5   25 5
7 3 10 1 1 Washington 70.18 0.6516   27 5   27 5
11 4 15 2 2 Oklahoma St 68.99 0.6502   24 6   24 6
5 12 17 2 4 Louisville 71.21 0.6191   29 4   29 4
4 19 23 3 4 Florida 72.47 0.6090   23 7   23 7
17 8 25 4 3 Gonzaga 67.92 0.6394   25 4   25 4
14 22 36 5 4 Syracuse 68.76 0.6052   27 6   27 6
31 33 64 7 11 UTEP 63.52 0.5785   27 7   27 7
27 45 72 8 10 Creighton 64.76 0.5698   23 10   23 10
25 49 74 8 14 Utah St 65.17 0.5682   24 7   24 7
49 27 76 8 12 Old Dominion 60.60 0.5865   28 5   28 5
24 57 81 9 12 Geo. Washington 65.53 0.5632   22 7   22 7
57 34 91 11 13 Ohio 59.44 0.5783   21 10   21 10
72 21 93 12 13 Vermont 58.15 0.6069   24 6   24 6
56 38 94 12 13 La-Lafayette 59.83 0.5762   20 10   20 10
23 73 96 12 12 New Mexico 65.82 0.5531   26 6   26 6
40 58 98 13 12 UW Milwaukee 61.93 0.5631   24 5   24 5
60 43 103 13 13 Penn 59.36 0.5724   20 8   20 8
108 50 158 14 14 Bucknell 54.45 0.5681   22 9   22 9
103 70 173 14 14 Winthrop 54.78 0.5541   27 5   27 5
106 80 186 14 14 Niagara 54.65 0.5462   20 9   20 9
102 103 205 15 15 SE Louisiana 54.79 0.5320   24 8   24 8
123 83 206 15 15 Central Florida 53.40 0.5454   24 8   24 8
133 101 234 15 15 Eastern Kentucky 52.32 0.5333   22 8   22 8
170 102 272 15 16 Delaware St 49.42 0.5323   19 13   19 13
156 122 278 16 15 Chattanooga 50.22 0.5196   20 10   20 10
152 157 309 16 16 Montana 50.32 0.5016   18 12   18 12
194 160 354 16 16 Fairleigh Dickinson 47.55 0.5008   20 12   20 12
158 203 361 PI PI Oakland 50.21 0.4805   12 18   12 18
249 223 472 PI PI Alabama A&M 42.81 0.4654   18 13   18 13
DCI RPI Sum Seed   At-Large Bids (34) Rating     W L   Proj
1 7 8 1 1 North Carolina 74.70 0.6420   27 4   27 4
9 6 15 2 2 Wake Forest 69.71 0.6443   26 5   26 5
8 9 17 2 3 Arizona 69.98 0.6335   27 6   27 6
10 10 20 3 2 Kentucky 69.70 0.6252   25 5   25 5
6 15 21 3 2 Connecticut 70.56 0.6120   22 7   22 7
22 2 24 3 3 Kansas 66.09 0.6575   23 6   23 6
16 17 33 4 3 Oklahoma 68.61 0.6116   24 7   24 7
20 25 45 6 5 Michigan St 67.13 0.5969   22 6   22 6
19 16 35 4 5 Alabama 67.65 0.6119   24 7   24 7
18 18 36 5 5 Villanova 67.78 0.6112   22 7   22 7
12 26 38 5 6 LSU 68.84 0.5905   20 9   20 9
15 29 44 5 5 Georgia Tech 68.73 0.5847   19 11   19 11
21 14 35 4 6 Wisconsin 66.22 0.6138   22 8   22 8
38 11 49 6 4 Boston College 62.23 0.6236   24 4   24 4
30 23 53 6 6 Utah 63.96 0.6023   27 5   27 5
26 30 56 6 6 Texas Tech 65.15 0.5828   20 10   20 10
32 24 56 6 7 Cincinnati 63.24 0.5971   24 7   24 7
45 13 58 7 7 Southern Illinois 61.50 0.6139   26 7   26 7
41 20 61 7 8 Pacific 61.65 0.6080   26 3   26 3
28 44 72 8 7 West Virginia 64.40 0.5707   21 10   21 10
29 48 77 9 9 Pittsburgh 64.37 0.5685   20 8   20 8
36 41 77 9 8 Stanford 62.48 0.5733   18 12   18 12
54 28 82 9 10 St Mary's 60.00 0.5861   25 8   25 8
34 51 85 10 8 Texas 63.04 0.5675   20 10   20 10
53 31 84 10   Buffalo 60.14 0.5819   22 9   22 9
42 42 84 10 11 UCLA 61.63 0.5728   18 10   18 10
52 35 87 10 9 Nevada 60.21 0.5778   24 6   24 6
13 74 87 10 10 North Carolina St 68.79 0.5525   19 13   19 13
35 55 90 11 10 Iowa 62.94 0.5639   21 11   21 11
43 47 90 11 8 Minnesota 61.59 0.5687   21 10   21 10
55 37 92 12 9 Mississippi St 59.98 0.5773   22 10   22 10
62 36 98 13 7 Charlotte 59.26 0.5774   21 7   21 7
44 56 100 13   St Joseph's 61.54 0.5637   19 11   19 11
47 60 107 14 11 UAB 61.02 0.5613   21 10   21 10
51 64 115     Ohio St 60.34 0.5570   20 12   20 12
74 39 113   11 Northern Iowa 57.89 0.5752   21 10   21 10
83 32 115     Miami-Ohio 56.58 0.5818   19 10   19 10
39 78 117   9 Iowa St 62.19 0.5491   18 11   18 11
37 86 123     Indiana 62.33 0.5449   15 13   15 13
63 63 126     Maryland 59.07 0.5572   16 12   16 12
69 59 128     SW Missouri St 58.58 0.5623   18 12   18