SEC Basketball: Fantasy Preview

    
November 4th, 2009

This is the 5th of six fantasy stats projections for BCS conference starters. One of my favorite series of the year, and a helpful guide when drafting for fantasy college basketball leagues. For an idea of whether I know what I'm talking about, check out last year's SEC Stats Projection (SEC happened to be by far my worst predictions overall). As always, some teams were nailed better then others.. Tennessee was decent, Vanderbilt was particularly bad.

 

Keep in mind stats are highly dependent on minutes, and freshmen are obviously the hardest to predict. I try to note places below where other starters not listed may emerge or where competition for major minutes exist. Stats are listed by ppg, rpg, and then apg.

 

SEC


ALABAMA

G Mikhail Torrance - 12, 3, 4
G Senario Hillman - 15, 3, 3
F Tony Mitchell - 10, 6, 2
F JaMychal Green - 14, 8, 1
C Justin Knox - 7, 6, 1

Notes: Hillman improved substantially last season, and could lead the team in scoring this year. Mitchell is a freshman who will contribute immediately. Demetrius Johnson will add productive minutes behind Knox.

ARKANSAS

G Courtney Fortson - 14, 5, 7
G Stefan Welsh - 10, 3, 3
G Rotnei Clarke - 15, 3, 1
F Michael Sanchez - 6, 6, 1
F Michael Washington - 15, 11, 1

Notes: Washington was a pleasant surprise last year, almost doubling my projected 8 ppg. Clarke has the ability to light it up from deep and Arkansas would be better off he took more shots away from Fortson.

AUBURN

G DeWayne Reed - 15, 3, 4
G Tay Waller - 11, 3, 2
G Frankie Sullivan - 11, 3, 2

F Lucas Hargrove - 9, 7, 2

F Kenny Gabriel - 6, 4, 1

Notes: As usual, Auburn is a guard-heavy team. Reed took a big step up last year and expect Sullivan to be this year's most improved player after averaging 7.6 ppg last year. Gabriel, a freshman, will battle other newcomers like Rob Chubb for minutes up front.

FLORIDA
G Erving Walker - 9, 3, 2
G Kenny Boynton - 14, 4, 3
F Chandler Parsons - 11, 6, 2
F Dan Werner - 8, 6, 2
F Alex Tyus - 14, 8, 1

Notes: I expected a bigger year from Parsons last year, who has more talent then he's shown. Boynton is a big-time scorer who will be one of the league's most productive newcomers. Vernon Macklin, a Georgetown transfer, will also see important minutes and could add 5 ppg and 5 rpg a game.

GEORGIA
G Dustin Ware - 8, 3, 4

G Travis Leslie - 11, 4, 1
G DeMario Mayfield - 7, 3, 1

F Albert Jackson - 6, 6, 1
F Howard (Trey) Thompkins - 17, 9, 1

Notes: Thompkins is the lone SEC-quality player on the roster and should have opportunity to fill up the stat-sheet. Mayfield is a freshman, and probably the best of weak options on the wing. Leslie has potential to be a minor surprise.

KENTUCKY

G Eric Bledsoe - 9, 4, 4

G John Wall - 16, 5, 6
F Darius Miller - 10, 5, 3
F DeMarcus Cousins - 11, 7, 1
F Patrick Patterson - 19, 10, 2

Notes: Miller's #'s were disappointing as a freshman, but he should thrive with so many weapons around him. Wall, Bledsoe, and Cousins are all freshman. Last year, Perry Stevenson saw 28 mpg, but his time will be severely reduced due to all the newcomers.

LSU

G Bo Spencer - 13, 3, 4
G Chris Bass - 6, 3, 3
G Aaron Dotson - 8, 3, 2
F Tasmin Mitchell - 19, 9, 2
C Storm Warren - 8, 6, 1

Notes: Mitchell and Spencer are the only players on the roster with any real experience. Dotson is a freshman who might be the 3rd most talented player on the team, but will take time to develop. Senior Alex Farrer may get minutes over Bass, but don't expect much production from him.

MISSISSIPPI STATE

G Dee Bost - 14, 5, 5
G Barry Stewart - 13, 4, 2
G Phil Turner - 10, 6, 2

F Ravern Johnson - 11, 4, 1
C Jarvis Varnado - 15, 10, 1

Notes: Besides the #'s listed, Varnado also blocks a ton of shots and shoots a high % from the floor. Renardo Sidney is awaiting his NCAA fate, but would be expected to see 25+ mpg if eligibile. Kodi Augustus is a highly efficient reserve forward who would probably score double-digits ppg if he was on a team like LSU.

 

OLE MISS

G Chris Warren - 17, 3, 5
G Terrico White - 17, 5, 3
G Eniel Polynice - 10, 5, 5
F Reginald Buckner - 8, 6, 1
F Murphy Holloway - 9, 8, 1

Notes: Ole Miss has 3 other contributing front-line players in Zach Graham, Terrance Henry, and DeAngelo Riley. Graham averaged 26 mpg last year. White averaged 13.7 ppg as a freshman and will only get better.

 

SOUTH CAROLINA

G Devan Downey - 21, 4, 5
G
Brandis Raley-Ross - 10, 3, 2
F Dominique Archie - 13, 7, 1
F Sam Muldrow - 7, 6, 0
F Mike Holmes - 10, 9, 0

Notes: The Gamecocks return 4 of 5 starters, and Raley-Ross (the new starter) played 25 mpg last year as well, so we know what to expect from these guys. Evaldas Baniulis averaged 6 ppg as a sharp-shooter off the bench and could score 10 ppg if given enough minutes.

 

TENNESSEE

G Bobby Maze - 10, 3, 3
G Scotty Hopson - 13, 4, 2
G JP Prince - 12, 5, 5
F Tyler Smith - 15, 8, 3
F Wayne Chism - 15, 9, 1

Notes: All of these guys are holdovers from last year. Hopson, who had a rather blah freshman year (9.2 ppg on 42.8% shooting), has the best chance to take a noticeable step up. Brian Williams is a servicable reserve forward who should contribute 7 ppg and 6 rpg.

 

VANDERBILT

G Jermaine Beal - 11, 3, 4
G Brad Tinsley - 10, 3, 3
F Andre Walker - 8, 6, 1
F Jeffrey Taylor - 15, 7, 2
F AJ Ogilvy - 18, 9, 2

Notes: A deep squad, Vanderbilt has 3 other players worth noting. John Jenkins is a heralded freshman who will see 20+ mpg in the backcourt. Lance Goulbourne is a wing with talent, and Festus Ezeli will see 15+ mpg when Vandy wants to play big.

 

Projected SEC Leaders

 

Top PPG
1) Devan Downey (21)
2) Tasmin Mitchell (19)
3) Patrick Patterson (19)

 

Top RPG
1) Mike Washinton (11)
2) Jarvis Varnado (10)

3) Patrick Patterson (10)

 

Top APG
1) Courtney Fortson (7)
2) John Wall (6)

3) Bost/Downey/Polynice/Prince/Warren (5)

 

Fantasy Stats Preview Archive

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