Basketball@RichardCheeks.com

February 9th, 2005

SEC Basketball: Expect An Exciting Finish

Before the first SEC toss-up of this season, I ventured into dangerous territory by daring to predict how the 96 game SEC season would unfold.  Who would compete for Divisional honors, and top honors?  Who would not?  As I carefully pointed out, I never expected to predict the winner of every game, but to identify probable outcomes based on each team’s pre-conference performance and their respective schedule strength.  I said then,

"Will upsets occur?  You betcha!  However, over the course of the full conference season, a team like Kentucky will win one or two games it is now picked to lose, and vice versa.  This is true for all teams." [1]

And the first half of the 2005 SEC season has seen its fair share of upsets.  Through the games on Saturday, February 5, 2005, there have been Fifty-two SEC games, roughly 54 percent, and essentially the halfway mark.  This is an excellent opportunity to take stock and evaluate how the actual first half results compare to my predictions, and gaze into that crystal ball again regarding the second half.

Upsets Are A Natural Part Of Sport:

Of course, we may all disagree about which games are indeed upsets.  For example, if your favorite team loses, you may regard that as an upset.  Likewise, when my favorite team loses, I take comfort in believing the loss was an upset.  However, other folks may not regard our losses as an upsets.  Our allegiances make our conclusions subjective.   

What is an upset? 

An upset occurs when a team with a higher average performance loses to a team with a lower average performance.  Upsets occur in sport because game-to-game performance varies above and below a team’s average performance level.  At times, the team with the higher average will play below its average performance on the same day that the other team with the lower average plays above its average performance.  Fans remember the best efforts that their teams turn in, and compare any lesser performance against it.  This is a natural tendency.  However, fans have more realistic expectations for their team if they used their team’s average performance level as the basis of their comparisons.  Most loses are not upsets.  Most victories are not flukes, but hard earned and deserved.

For the first 52 games, the predicted winner won the game 38 times, with 14 upsets.  This is one upset in every four games.  This overall upset rate is consistent with my experience and observations.  Despite the 14 upsets, the projected final standings remain substantially the same at the mid-way point of this SEC season. 

SEC East:

The only significant change in the Eastern Division of the SEC is that Kentucky has moved from a close third place finish behind tough USC and Florida to the top of the pack, just ahead of USC and Florida.  Vanderbilt, Tennessee and Georgia hold down the lower half of the Division, just as predicted.  The entire East Division is one win behind its predicted head to head competition with teams of the West.

The battle in the East will now focus on whether Florida or USC secure that valuable first round bye.  While it would seem that Florida may have the inside track for that spot now, they must play five of their last eight on the road at USC, Kentucky, LSU and Tennessee, all difficult venues to leave with victories.  USC on the other hand plays only three remaining games on the road.  That two game road game margin may be sufficient for USC to  overcome its current two game deficiency to Florida in the loss column.

                                 Table 1a                                                                    Table 1b

                        Original Predictions                                           Revised Predictions

Chatter around Lexington these days is reverting to 2003 when Kentucky came off a disappointing loss to Louisville in December to run the table during the SEC regular season and SEC Tournament.  Folks are wondering whether 2005 will see Kentucky repeat the sweep.  I do not think so.  Kentucky has three remaining road games [USC, Florida, and Alabama] all against quality teams.  In addition, Kentucky must entertain Mississippi State and Florida in Rupp.  I continue to predict two road losses in the last half of this season. 

Going into the season, many observers commented about the unusually weak pre-conference schedule that Kentucky played this season.  In contrast, Vanderbilt’s pre-conference schedule was the second toughest among SEC teams in 2005.  However, Kentucky has responded and Vanderbilt has stumbled in the face of SEC competition.  Hummm.

Georgia and Tennessee will continue to bring up the rear of the SEC East this season. 

SEC West:

In the West, the only significant change is that Alabama has moved ahead of Arkansas in a swap of the top two spots.  Mississippi State continues to hold the third spot, followed in order by LSU, Mississippi and Auburn.  Clearly, Arkansas has been the greatest disappointment in the league, a full 4 games behind my admittedly optimistic  prediction.   However, the remainder of the West Division has performed consistent with the predicted finish.  Arkansas’ weakness has opened opportunities for Mississippi State and Alabama to assert themselves as the dominant western division team.  Alabama has responded with a 6 – 2 start to seize the advantage in the West, but Mississippi State’s performance has been confusing and unpredictable, standing now at 5 – 4. 

Admittedly, Arkansas’ pre-conference performance appeared stronger than justified by its experience or talent levels.  I missed that in my pre-season analysis.  However, Mississippi State has been an enigma.  Mississippi State stands at 5 – 4, precisely the same record that I predicted for them at this stage.  However, Mississippi State has not arrived at this mid-point position in the manner I expected.  In Mississippi State’s first nine games, the “underdog” won an amazing 6 times.  Mississippi State won three times when I predicted a loss.  Mississippi State lost three times when I predicted a win.   

My pre-season prediction that Mississippi State would finish third in the West, 8 – 8] drew the ire of many Bulldog fans.  I understand why such a prediction would be so unbelievable and unwelcome in Starkville.  However, I suppose that those same fans are just as shocked today by their team’s first 9 games as I am about how they arrived at this result.   Mississippi State and Arkansas will probably fight it out for the West Division’s second, first round bye in SEC Tournament. 

The predictions I am using for the forecasts in this article are all based solely on the pre-conference records.  I am convinced that if I revisited the analysis based on current data, Mississippi State would emerge in the second position of the West.  However, to remain true to the spirit of the original predictions, I will continue to use them here.  However, for Arkansas to secure the second spot in the west, they can not sustain another conference loss, an outcome that does not seem as likely today given their weak showing in the first nine games.  For Mississippi State to prevail in the second spot over Arkansas, the Bulldogs must at least 4 of the final 7 games, including their remaining game against Arkansas, or 5 of the 7 if it loses to Arkansas.

Auburn, Mississippi and LSU will hold down a more competitive bottom of the West than I expected.  Of the bottow trio of the West, the biggest surprise among them has been LSU, at +3 at the mid-point of the season and Mississippi at +2.  However, these significant improvements are not sufficient to move either team into position to make a serious run at the upper division of the West this season. 

                                    Table 2a                                                        Table 2b

                        Original Predictions                                           Revised Predictions

General Observations:

I predicted a 53 – 43 East v. West victory margin.  After the first 52 games, the East holds a 28 – 24 lead over the West, and the modified projected season split is now 52 – 44.  Finally, the home team has won 34 times and lost 18 times.  This is a home victory rate of about 65 percent, which is slightly below the national average 70% as reported recently by the NCAA.

Following each day of SEC play this season, I update a spread sheet that compares each SEC pre-season prediction with the actual results.  To view this summary, use the following link:  http://www.richardcheeks.com/UK Sports/Explanations/22 SEC Predictions-x.htm

For those who are interested in examining my data, writings or analysis in more depth, please visit:  http://www.richardcheeks.com

and select the UK Sports navigation button in the left frame.  Of course, I welcome your email to:  Basketball@RichardCheeks.com