Predicting the SEC Tournament

Of the 96 conference games, I correctly predicted the winner in 64 games.  As I noted in my original article, I fully expected upsets, e.g. games in which the team I predicted to win would actually lose.  I also expected to a great extent these “upsets” would be compensating, and the overall order of finish would be the same.  Three of the twelve teams did not cooperate with

 this theory.  LSU won a whopping 10 more games than I had predicted while Arkansas lost a similarly whopping 8 games more than I forecast for them.  Similarly, in the East, USC lost 7 more games than anticipated.  The other nine teams finished in substantially the forecast positions in the final standings. 

Of the 32 games in which I did not correctly predict the winner, the of these games involved USC [7 games], LSU [10 games], or Arkansas [8 games].  While the Mississippi State prediction only varies from the final outcome by one victory, I failed to predict the winner in nine of the 16 conference games involving Mississippi State.  On 4 occasions, I predicted a victory when they lost, and on 5 occasions, I predicted a loss when they won.  LSU, Arkansas and USC were involved in 23 of the 32 games that I missed predicting the winner.  That means that on 9 of the missed games involved only the other 9 teams, and when the misses involving Mississippi State are factored in, only 5 games involved any of the other 8 teams.  I have posted the details of the actual results as compared to each of my predictions on my website.

SEC Tournament:

The four first round games should see the higher seeded teams winning in each case. 

Game 1:        USC will defeat Mississippi for a second time in less than a week on Thursday afternoon.  This time, they will not need overtime to get the job done, and will win by 4 points.

Game 2:        Mississippi State Bulldogs will dispatch the Georgia Bulldogs in short order on Thursday afternoon by 12 points.

Game 3:        I have been predicting Arkansas wins, only to be disappointed all season long.  However, my analysis continues to point to a stronger Arkansas team than their record supports.  Arkansas will defeat Tennessee Thursday evening by 9 points.

Game 4:        Vanderbilt will send a feisty Auburn team home early on Thursday night by 15 points.

I will provide similar predictions for the second round Thursday night, after all first round play is complete.

**Visit Richard's Website: http://www.richardcheeks.com/UK%20Sports/RavingFan.htm