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By
WeAreDePaul.com
February 25th
Talking Hoops: Interview w/
Ken Pomeroy
Ken Pomeroy, the
national power rankings guru from
kenpom.com joined our friends at
WeAreDePaul.com for a live chat
on Thursday. Ken discussed how things will shake out in the Big Dance,
who is on the Bubble, how many teams will make it from each conference
and a lot more. CHN has a transcript of the chat, edited for your
reading pleasure:
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WeAreDePaul: Thanks
for taking the time to join us tonight, Ken.
What, in your opinion, does DePaul need to do from here on out to
make the NCAA’s?
Ken Pomeroy: I'd say
two more wins will be enough, three makes them a lock - this includes
CUSA tourney play.
WeAreDePaul: What
about Joe Lunardi's RPI? Do you have any insight into his rankings,
Ken?
Ken Pomeroy: No, I
don't really know what exactly Joe does. From what I see on ESPN, his
numbers are close to mine.
WeAreDePaul: How many
teams do you see coming from CUS A and the Pac10?
Ken Pomeroy: Well,
Louisville, Cincinnati, Charlotte, DePaul. Those
four are comfortable. Marquette, UAB, and Memphis aren't going to make
it in. So it looks like four.
WeAreDePaul: How much
of a factor is the RPI? For instance Memphis beat DePaul heads up but
Memphis’ RPI is over one hundred and De{aul is at 34. Both are on the
bubble, but who is the selection committee more likely to select even
though Memphis is the hotter team going in?
Ken Pomeroy: RPI is a
factor. That difference is so huge that it is very meaningful.
Head-to-head is really not a big deal unless all other factors are
equal.
WeAreDePaul: Is there
really a ceiling as to how many teams per conference can get in or is
conference affiliation meaningless to the selection committee?
Ken Pomeroy:
Conference Affiliation is meaningless for the most part. But at the same
time if you have a bunch of bubble teams in the same conference, they
tend to beat each other up so that all of them don't get in.
WeAreDePaul: How are
neutral court games like in the upcoming conference tournaments treated
in respect to the RPI?
Ken Pomeroy: They are
treated just like neutral games during the regular season. Home court
still applies when a team is playing on its home court of course.
WeAreDePaul: So would
a neutral court game count for as much as a road win?
Ken Pomeroy: A road
win counts for 1.4 wins, while a neutral game counts for a 1.0 win, and
the dreaded home win is only .6.
WeAreDePaul: How do
you feel about DePaul's pre-conference scheduling? Was it the right
approach (playing a bunch of mid-majors), or would it be better to
schedule like Marquette does - one or two powerful teams and a bunch of
patsies?
Ken Pomeroy: To me,
if you're serious about a tournament bid, it pays to challenge yourself
early. Pitt, Virginia Tech and Texas A&M are really kicking themselves
for a weak non-conf schedule right now.
WeAreDePaul:
Vermont’s RPI is 15? What the heck?
Ken Pomeroy: The
Catamounts are a power! Obviously that is exhibit A as to why this
year's revamping of the RPI was a little misguided.
Trust me, Vermont won't get a 4 seed.
WeAreDePaul: What
about the SEC? How many teams do you see getting in, and whom?
Ken Pomeroy:
Kentucky, Bama, Florida, LSU, and most likely Mississippi State. I think
that's it for them.
WeAreDePaul: What
about the ACC, specifically Georgia Tech and Miami?
Ken Pomeroy: Georgia
Tech is a real puzzler. I'm starting to think they're just not that
good. They really need three more wins. Great bubble game between GT and
Miami on Saturday.
WeAreDePaul: What
about Kansas? What sort of seed do you see for them right now?
Ken Pomeroy: At this
moment they are a two. They need to play well and hope that UNC, Wake,
or BC stumbles. Then the Jayhawks could be a #1.
WeAreDePaul: Given
the road weighting to the RPI, is a win at UAB comparable to a win at
home against Louisville for DePaul? Or is the UL game bigger?
Ken Pomeroy: As far
as the impact to the RPI, they're probably about equal. That's a
weakness in the formula. A road win outside the top 100 can be better
RPI-wise than a home win in the top 50.
WeAreDePaul: Ken,
what's your feeling on St. Mary's right now? How much more do they need
to do for an at-large berth?
Ken Pomeroy: St.
Mary's is totally relying on the Gonzaga win. Yeah, they have road wins
at Cal and UNLV, but those teams are near the bottom of their
conferences.
WeAreDePaul: What
about Wichita State?
Ken Pomeroy: A
four-loss MVC team is deserving of a bid, but they have to get by
Southern Illinois to accomplish that. They'll probably get in with a
couple MVC tourney wins.
WeAreDePaul: Was a
study performed before the RPI change to assess the situation we brought
up before (i.e., UAB on the road vs. Louisville at home)?
Ken Pomeroy: You
know, the NCAA kind of implied that one was done.
Bob Bowlsby said this was "the best
tool possible." That's a quote. But it will be interesting to see if
the new RPI is used as much as the old.
WeAreDePaul: Ken, are
there any teams who might be seeded between 6 and 11 who could do some
serious damage in the NCAA’s past the first weekend?
Ken Pomeroy: If
Villanova is seeded in there, they are a team to watch for sure. So
many guys who can create their own shot. They will be a tough team to
eliminate.
WeAreDePaul: Is
Vermont a lock for an at-large if they don't win the conference
tournament?
Ken Pomeroy: Yeah,
they probably are. Their RPI will be at least 25, and I don't see the
committee ignoring that after they hyped up the new system so much.
WeAreDePaul: What
about West Virginia? How real are their at-large chances right now?
Ken Pomeroy: Their
chances are very real. But they have to win their last two regular
season games. Sitting 8th in conference is not helping them at the
moment, but you can't ignore wins at LSU, Pitt, and NC State. The
committee LOVES road wins.
WeAreDePaul: Given
the revamped RPI, do you think the Selection Committee will use other
rankings even more this year, most notably Sagarin's and yours?
Ken Pomeroy: I don't
think they'll use them more, but there will be
some common sense in the process - as there usually is. Teams
like Vermont and Miami Ohio will not get seeds commensurate with their
RPI.
WeAreDePaul: Is
anyone still calculating the RPI under the "old" method? If so, where
does that "old" RPI show DePaul to be?
Ken Pomeroy: The old
formula has them at 39 (new RPI is 33). It will be interesting to see
how selections compare to the old formula. It will give us an indication
as to which formula the committee truly trusts.
WeAreDePaul: Where do
you see Charlotte being seeded in the NCAA’s?
Ken Pomeroy: What's
the deal with them? It seems like they are under appreciated nationally.
They have to be a 4 or 5 at this point, with a legitimate shot at a 2 or
3 if they win out.
WeAreDePaul: Do you
see a team this year that looks like last year's Washington, who
streaked down the stretch and basically made their RPI irrelevant?
Ken Pomeroy: Memphis
was trying to be that team. Virginia Tech could do it as well, they
could finish 4th in the ACC with an RPI in the 80-100 range, and would
be hard to keep out.
WeAreDePaul: The MVC
as a whole? Two bids? Three bids?
Ken Pomeroy: SIU is
a lock, Wichita is close. So it could be a three bid conference if
someone like Northern Iowa wins Arch madness.
WeAreDePaul: What
about the MAC?
Ken Pomeroy: Miami
is probably the only at-large. Kent State and Buffalo are close, but
there's not enough there to pick either of them.
WeAreDePaul: Thanks
for your time Ken. Don’t forget to visit
kenpom.com.
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