2007 NBA Draft Lottery Odds

May 18th, 2007 by Shawn Siegel

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NBA Draft

The 2007 NBA Draft Lottery will be held Tuesday night, May 22nd. Despite all the hype about the Grizzlies and Celtics dividing up Greg Oden and Kevin Durant, there's actually a substantial chance both teams will most out on those guys. Included in the top chart is each team's chance of getting the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd pick. These are official numbers supplied by NBA.com.

Memphis obviously has the best chance at #1 with 25% odds. Notice however, that they have less than a 50% chance combined of getting the Top 2 picks. There's actually a better chance (53.5%) that they will get the 3rd pick or below. The same goes for the Celtics who have a 61.3% chance of getting the 3rd pick or below. In fact, the most likely pick that both the Grizzlies and Celtics will get is the 4th pick. Memphis has a 36% chance of getting the 4th pick, while Boston has a 32% chance.

Both Milwaukee and Atlanta, who have the 3rd best odds, are actually most likely to end up with the 5th pick. Milwaukee has a 23% chance of getting this pick, while Atlanta has 35% (Note, the Hawks pick will most likely go to the Suns).

Team	Combos	1st Pick	2nd	3rd
Memphis	250	25.0%	21.5%	17.8%
Boston	199	19.9%	18.8%	17.1%
Milwaukee	156	15.6%	15.7%	15.6%
Atlanta (Phoenix)	119	11.9%	12.6%	13.3%
Seattle	88	8.8%	9.7%	10.7%
Portland	53	5.3%	6.0%	7.0%
Minnesota	53	5.3%	6.0%	7.0%
Charlotte	19	1.9%	2.2%	2.7%
New York (Chicago)	19	1.9%	2.2%	2.7%
Sacramento	18	1.8%	2.1%	2.5%
Indiana	8	0.8%	0.9%	1.2%
Philadelphia	7	0.7%	0.8%	1.0%
New Orleans	6	0.6%	0.7%	0.9%
LA Clippers	5	0.5%	0.6%	0.7%

For some other interesting information, I suggest the following article on the Celtics website:

http://www.nba.com/celtics/stats/inside-the-numbers/itn042307-draft-lottery-odds.html

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