Atlantic Sun

Poll: Who Will Win the Atlantic Sun?

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 12:02:18 -0400

College Basketball: Preseason Conference Ranking

CHN — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 11:43:04 -0400

After finishing 1st in the RPI the last two years, the ACC should fall back slightly thanks to the big-name departures at UNC & Wake Forest. This should allow one of the Big 12, Big Ten, or even SEC a shot at being #1. The Pac-10 is weak enough that a high-major like the A-10, MVC, or MWC could surpass it.

Chime in with your thoughts below if you agree or disagree with CHN's preseason conference ranking.

2009-10 Conference Ranking

*08-09 is last year's conference RPI. Commentary by Shawn Siegel, ranking by CHN.

	Conference	08-09*
1	Big Ten 9 of 11 teams go into season with ncaa hopes, and as many as 7 may reach that goal	2
2	Big 12 ku is the clear title contender. the bottom few teams are weak though and the middle-tier is hit or miss	3
3	ACC no dominant team like last year, but solid as always.	1
4	SEC rise of uk brings league back to prominence after down year..	6
5	Big East lose tons of big name players, and still held down by likes of depual, rutgers, etc	4
6	Pac-10 conceivable the pac-10 only receives 3 tourney bids.	5
7	Atlantic 10 should get at least 2 invites to the ncaa tournament	8
8	MVC with improvement expected from usual leaders creighton & siu, mvc should be solid all-around	9
9	MWC just about every top team loses a top player, but mwc should be one of the more entertaining leagues	7
10	Conference USA though memphis takes step back, rest of league is better than usual.	10
11	WAC after some down years, wac will once again be compeititve league	11
12	Horizon butler has top 10 hopes, but squads like csu and green bay lose key seniors.	12
13	Colonial while still 1 bid league, likes of odu, n'eastern, gmu, and vcu are all quality	14
14	Sun Belt more then just wku, the entire east division is solid	17
15	MAAC siena, niagara, and rider all have postseason hopes	13
16	WCC gonzaga and smc both worse then season ago	15
17	MAC #'s should be better than last year, but west division still a struggle	21
18	Big West led by up-and-coming long beach state. always finish around this #.	18
19	Summit darling ndsu loses a lot, so usual contenders like oru and oakland should be at forefront again	26
20	Big Sky with exception of sacramento st, this is a solid league top to bottom.	24
21	Southland underrated league always good for some non-conference upsets	19
22	Ivy cornell will be the best the ivy has offered in quite some years	29
23	Southern steph curry's departure opens up door for charleston	20
24	America East decimation of binghamton will hurt league #'s	16
25	Atlantic Sun the league's upper half is as solid as it's been for a few years	27
26	Patriot could use a rebound from former top gun bucknell.	22
27	OVC morehead st continues its improbable rise..	23
28	Big South outside of radford, not much to get excited about here..	25
29	NEC nec hasn't had much going for it in recent years	28
30	MEAC as usual, will battle swac for title of country's worst	30
31	SWAC solid jackson st gives swac hope of surpassing meac	31

College Basketball Preview - 144 Teams in 144 Days - Alphabetical Ranks/Previews

Campbell University to Re-Join Big South Conference

Press Release — Thu, 14 May 2009 13:11:23 -0400

CHARLOTTE, N.C. ? The Big South Conference Council of Chief Executive Officers has voted to add Campbell University as a full member of the League, beginning July 1, 2011, it was announced today by Big South Conference Commissioner Kyle B. Kallander. Campbell, a charter member of the Big South in 1983 until its departure in 1994, will be eligible to compete for all Big South championships immediately upon entry in 2011. The Camels will continue to compete in the Atlantic Sun Conference for the next two seasons (2009-10, 2010-11).

"It is most appropriate as we celebrate the Big South Conference's Silver Anniversary, that we welcome back one of our founding members, Campbell University," said Kallander. "The Big South is proud of its history and heritage, which includes many outstanding performances by Campbell student-athletes and coaches. The Big South Conference counts amongst its core values excellence in academics and athletics, leadership, integrity, diversity and fiscal responsibility. The addition of Campbell University reflects those values, and many more. Campbell will be an integral part of the Big South's efforts in developing leaders through athletics, and we are so pleased to have them back in the family."

"We are excited about Campbell's return to the Big South Conference," added Campbell University President Dr. Jerry M. Wallace. "The Big South's membership is located in an area where most Campbell students, alumni and major supporters reside. We will feel at home with the excellent and well-recognized universities of the Big South and look forward to the rivalries we will share."

Campbell sponsors 20 varsity sports at the Division I level, 17 of which are sponsored by the Big South: men's and women's basketball, men's and women's soccer, men's and women's cross country, men's and women's tennis, baseball, softball, men's and women's golf, volleyball and men's and women's indoor and outdoor track & field. Campbell's football (Pioneer League) women's swimming (Coastal Collegiate Swimming Association) and wrestling (independent) programs will not compete in the Big South Conference.

The Camels enjoyed athletic and academic success as members of the Big South Conference from 1983-94. Campbell earned the Big South's first automatic bid in men's basketball in 1992 and in baseball in 1990, and was the first Conference champion in men's soccer (1984) and women's soccer (1993). Its women's basketball program was one of the League's best in the Conference's first decade, and its rivalry with Radford on the hardwood was epic. The teams faced each other in the women's basketball championship game six consecutive years from 1987 to 1992. Campbell's women's golf program was the first in Big South history to advance to the NCAA Regionals in 1994, and did so as an at-large selection.

Conference Tournament Odds: Mid-Majors

Evan Dorey — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 10:47:53 -0400

Tournament Odds: Mid-Major Conferences

These are conference tournament log5 projections, using in-conference offensive and defensive efficiency. The basic log5 methodology comes from Bill James, and this is an area Ken Pomeroy has looked at in the past as well. I claim nothing new in the application, but obviously with slightly different methodologies, these numbers may differ from others you find.

- more odds coming soon!

America East - March 6-14

The first three rounds will be played in Albany’s home court, SECFU Arena, with the final happening on Saturday morning at the higher remaining seed.

#	Team	QF	SF	F	W
1	Binghamton	100.00%	85.45%	53.64%	26.52%
2	Vermont	100.00%	87.92%	62.85%	45.92%
3	Boston University	100.00%	86.45%	32.33%	18.97%
4	New Hampshire	100.00%	28.09%	7.94%	0.82%
5	Stony Brook	100.00%	71.91%	34.71%	6.86%
6	UMBC	100.00%	13.55%	1.39%	0.19%
7	Albany	100.00%	12.08%	3.43%	0.47%
8	Maine	75.37%	12.98%	3.54%	0.24%
9	Hartford	24.63%	1.57%	0.18%	0.00%

Hometown team Albany got the worst possible opening draw, as the favorite, #2 Vermont will be a tough task. Binghamton and BU should be the main challengers, with Stony Brook a team from outside the top 4 that could cause a big surprise.

Atlantic Sun - March 4-7

With only seven eligible teams, champions Jacksonville get an opening round bye, while the bottom 6 teams play for the other semifinal spots. All games are held at the Allen Center, home to #4 Lipscomb.

#	Team	SF	F	W
1	Jacksonville	100.00%	54.37%	35.75%
2	East Tennessee St.	84.10%	52.47%	20.87%
3	Belmont	76.41%	37.58%	12.64%
4	Lipscomb	84.83%	43.25%	28.80%
5	Campbell	15.17%	2.38%	0.66%
6	Mercer	23.59%	5.87%	0.81%
7	Stetson	15.90%	4.07%	0.46%

Jacksonville’s first round bye doesn’t help them a whole lot, while Lipscomb’s home court advantage will give them a serious shot of breaking through to steal the bid.

(Ed: ETSU ended up winning, one of the few upset conference champions so far.)

Big Sky - March 7-11

The Big Sky Tournament features just 6 of the conference’s 9 teams, with the top two teams getting automatic semifinal byes. The first round games are played at campus sites, while Weber St. hosts the semis and final at the Dee Events Center.

#	Team	SF	F	W
1	Weber St.	100.00%	87.17%	73.11%
2	Portland St.	100.00%	58.13%	13.29%
3	Montana	94.12%	41.37%	7.97%
4	Idaho St.	70.40%	9.54%	4.30%
5	Northern Colorado	29.60%	3.30%	1.31%
6	Montana St.	5.88%	0.50%	0.02%

Weber would have been favorites at a neutral site. At home, they should be able to win the two games they’ll need.

Big South - March 3-7

The semis and finals will be hosted at regular season champs Radford.

#	Team	F	W
1	Radford	86.18%	69.39%
2	Virginia Military Inst	47.51%	12.44%
3	Liberty	52.49%	14.59%
4	NC Asheville	13.82%	3.58%

Radford’s home advantage should see them through, but the Liberty-VMI winner will give the Highlanders a tough fight

(Ed: As expected, Radford locked up the title.)

Big West - March 11-14

Hosted in Anaheim, the Big West conference tournament uses a bizarre style, which I don’t faithfully reproduce here, as they have a two-team double-level bye, just like the WCC, but also re-seeded at each level. These odds reflect the tournament without reseeding, so they somewhat hurt the top teams, but still give a basic idea of the overall picture.

#	Team	QF	SF	F	W
1	CS Northridge	100.00%	100.00%	59.70%	32.34%
2	Long Beach St.	100.00%	100.00%	58.41%	30.28%
3	Pacific	100.00%	73.63%	35.02%	17.31%
4	UC Santa Barbara	100.00%	60.42%	26.20%	12.48%
5	UC Irvine	71.81%	32.63%	12.71%	5.48%
6	UC Riverside	58.88%	17.18%	4.67%	1.35%
7	Cal St. Fullerton	41.12%	9.19%	1.90%	0.42%
8	UC Davis	28.19%	6.95%	1.39%	0.32%

The top two seeds get a huge boost by avoiding the opening two rounds, and look the likeliest to advance to the NCAA tournament. The two teams with single byes also have decent chances.

MAC - March 10-14

The MAC Tournament, held in Cleveland, gives four first round byes, and is mostly notable for the fact that the two division champs get the top two seeds, which elevates a below-.500 Ball St. team out of the first round up to #2.

#	Team	QF	SF	F	W
1	Bowling Green	100.00%	57.17%	18.32%	7.90%
2	Ball St.	100.00%	52.39%	13.83%	3.75%
3	Buffalo	100.00%	43.91%	30.38%	13.72%
4	Miami OH	100.00%	43.91%	29.09%	16.40%
5	Akron	94.36%	55.65%	41.06%	26.52%
6	Kent St.	90.15%	54.67%	42.38%	23.49%
7	Central Michigan	77.03%	41.65%	12.33%	3.74%
8	Western Michigan	39.43%	14.41%	3.09%	0.96%
9	Ohio	60.57%	28.42%	8.37%	3.38%
10	Eastern Michigan	22.97%	5.97%	0.68%	0.08%
11	Northern Illinois	9.85%	1.42%	0.40%	0.05%
12	Toledo	5.64%	0.45%	0.07%	0.01%

This conference is simply insane. The top two favorites don’t even get a bye, and Akron fans in particular must be steamed at the division winners rule. There look to be five teams that can potentially win the tournament, all from the East division, and no matter who gets it in the end, the MAC will retain its reputation for eating its own. Don’t be too surprised if you see the #5 or #6 seed make a long run in Cleveland.

MEAC- March 9-14

The MEAC Tournament features the 11 eligible teams meeting in Winston Salem, with the bottom six playing for spots in the quarterfinals.

#	Team	QF	SF	F	W
1	Morgan St.	100.00%	95.15%	83.06%	69.88%
2	South Carolina St.	100.00%	67.26%	36.98%	9.43%
3	Norfolk St.	100.00%	61.85%	33.51%	8.22%
4	NC A&T	100.00%	50.79%	8.05%	3.58%
5	Coppin St.	100.00%	49.21%	7.62%	3.33%
6	Bethune Cookman	90.11%	37.43%	17.18%	3.35%
7	Hampton	48.95%	15.79%	5.84%	0.90%
8	Florida A&M	41.68%	1.66%	0.37%	0.07%
9	Howard	58.32%	3.19%	0.91%	0.22%
10	Delaware St.	51.05%	16.95%	6.43%	1.02%
11	MD Eastern Shore	9.89%	0.72%	0.06%	0.00%

Morgan St. is a dominant favorite, but after that, its truly a free-for-all. Delaware St. is a fascinating potential long-shot, should it survive its first round game.

Northeast - March 5-11

The NEC Tournament has all game played at the higher seed with 8 of the 11 teams making the quarters.

#	Team	SF	F	W
1	Robert Morris	94.76%	82.61%	64.72%
2	Mount St. Mary's	91.99%	66.85%	22.16%
3	Sacred Heart	91.38%	31.18%	9.09%
4	Long Island	72.84%	12.75%	3.11%
5	Quinnipiac	27.16%	3.76%	0.71%
6	Central Connecticut	8.62%	0.98%	0.06%
7	Wagner	8.01%	0.99%	0.07%
8	St. Francis NY	5.24%	0.88%	0.09%

Robert Morris has separated itself from the rest of the conference all season, and with it hosting every game it plays, it should be on course for the NCAA bid.

Ohio Valley - March 3-7

With the semifinals set, all games will be played in Nashville from now on in the tournament.

#	Team	F	W
1	Tennessee Martin	62.54%	31.86%
2	Austin Peay	28.48%	10.72%
3	Murray St.	71.52%	42.86%
4	Morehead St.	37.46%	14.56%

Murray and Martin are both favored to make the final, where a battle between the two would be a lot of fun.

(Ed: Like ETSU above, Morehead St managed to defy the odds.)

Patriot League - March 4-13

All games in the Patriot League tournament are at the higher seed’s arena.

#	Team	SF	F	W
1	American	99.07%	97.22%	86.03%
2	Holy Cross	93.81%	80.21%	12.37%
3	Navy	85.31%	17.26%	1.28%
4	Army	66.79%	1.75%	0.16%
5	Lehigh	33.21%	0.83%	0.08%
6	Colgate	14.69%	1.39%	0.04%
7	Bucknell	6.19%	1.14%	0.03%
8	Lafayette	0.93%	0.19%	0.01%

American has had an excellent season, and should head back to the NCAA tournament, especially with all its games at home.

Southland - March 12-15

Eight of the league’s 12 teams meet in Katy, TX to decide the Southland title.

#	Team	SF	F	W
1	Stephen F. Austin	70.74%	46.69%	28.36%
2	Nicholls St.	80.97%	40.99%	19.77%
3	Sam Houston St.	76.46%	46.90%	25.31%
4	Texas A&M Corpus Christi	63.42%	28.37%	14.03%
5	Texas Arlington	36.58%	11.81%	4.32%
6	Texas San Antonio	23.54%	8.15%	2.23%
7	Texas St.	19.03%	3.96%	0.74%
8	Southeastern Louisiana	29.26%	13.13%	5.23%

Prepare for good four-way battle between the top seeds, with the #8 Southeastern Louisiana potentially poised to bust some brackets.

Summit League - March 7-10

The Summit League Tournament is a pretty simple 8-team affair, with all games in Sioux Falls, SD.

#	Team	SF	F	W
1	North Dakota St.	92.48%	83.64%	52.90%
2	Oral Roberts	88.37%	61.87%	31.48%
3	Oakland	81.52%	32.35%	12.02%
4	IUPUI	54.58%	7.58%	1.39%
5	Southern Utah	45.42%	5.50%	0.87%
6	IUPU Fort Wayne	18.48%	2.75%	0.41%
7	South Dakota St.	11.63%	3.04%	0.48%
8	Centenary	7.52%	3.28%	0.46%

North Dakota St. will be a team to watch for an upset in the NCAA tournament, but only if they can get by tough challenges from the winner of an ORU-Oakland semifinal.

SWAC - March 11-14

Eight teams meet in Birmingham to determine the SWAC automatic bid.

#	Team	SF	F	W
1	Alabama St.	94.70%	81.39%	63.36%
2	Jackson St.	84.03%	57.22%	20.15%
3	Prairie View A&M	72.56%	31.36%	8.01%
4	Arkansas Pine Bluff	70.73%	14.11%	6.07%
5	Southern	29.27%	3.05%	0.75%
6	MVSU	27.44%	6.57%	0.84%
7	Texas Southern	15.97%	4.84%	0.55%
8	Alabama A&M	5.30%	1.44%	0.27%

Alabama St. is a big favorite, with only the top four looking to have any kind of shot, and the top two in particular dominant favorites to meet in the title game.

Also: BCS Tournament Odds

Also: High-Major Tournament Odds

More: Championship Week Coverage

+2009 NCAA Tournament
	• All Tournament Coverage • NCAA Tournament Capsules • NIT Capsules • NCAA Tournament Schedule • Venue Info & Tickets • Bracketology

Atlantic Sun Tournament: Preview & Prediction

Evan Dorey — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 17:04:36 -0500

This is one in a series of conference tournament previews, in which I run down all the teams involved, give a brief statistical review and present the log5 projections, using in-conference offensive and defensive efficiency. The basic log5 methodology comes from Bill James, and this is an area Ken Pomeroy has looked at in the past as well. I claim nothing new in the application, but obviously with slightly different methodologies, these numbers may differ from others you find. I don’t claim to be an expert on any particular conference, and I’m sure there are some mis-characterizations on some players I’ve seen sparingly at best, so please add your thoughts in the comments. Anyway, with no further ado, the preview follows below:

Atlantic Sun Tournament

The A-Sun Tournament features the 7 eligible teams in the conference, with regular season champions Jacksonville earning a first round bye, and 4^th placed Lipscomb hosting the event.

Tournament Odds

#	Team	SF	F	W
1	Jacksonville	100.00%	69.64%	45.79%
2	East Tennessee St.	84.10%	52.47%	23.47%
3	Belmont	76.41%	37.58%	14.45%
4	Lipscomb	74.62%	26.38%	13.64%
5	Campbell	25.38%	3.98%	1.10%
6	Mercer	23.59%	5.87%	0.98%
7	Stetson	15.90%	4.07%	0.57%

Jacksonville’s first round bye is a big bonus, giving them a leg up, but Lipscomb’s home court advantage makes them one of a group of serious threats to the Dolphins’ chances.

#1 – Jacksonville Dolphins (17-12, 15-5); Efficiency Margin: +0.161

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1986 (1^st Round)

Jacksonville finished atop the standings by just one game, but dominated the EM standings, and is a clear tournament favorite. The reason for this domination is the conference’s best offense: the Dolphins make 47% from the field, and are great on the offensive glass, getting a lot of high-percentage second-chance shots. They also get to the free-throw line often, where an average percentage nets them a good number of points. Jacksonville is also pretty solid defensively, despite struggling to defend the outside shot. It leads the conference in forcing turnovers and is near the top on the defensive glass, so an opponents’ good shooting percentages don’t necessarily hurt.

Players to watch:

5-10 JR Ben Smith, 16.7 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 4.0 APG, 2.3 SPG, 51.1 eFG% - Smith averages more minutes than anyone else in the A-Sun, and is a critical player in the Dolphins’ success. He’s a pretty good shooter, but really shines by leading the team in assists and steals, and gets to the free throw line a lot, where he shoots 80%.

6-5 SO Ayron Hardy, 10.1 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 1.7 SPG, 64.3 eFG% - If Ayron Hardy took more shots, but maintained his percentages, he’d probably be the most efficient player in the conference, as his 60% from the field, combined with a nice three-point touch, allow him to maximize his relatively small role in the offense. He’s also a strong offensive rebounder, and does well defensively, putting up good block and steal rates.

#2 – East Tennessee St. Buccaneers (20-10, 14-6); Efficiency Margin: +0.118

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2004 (1^st Round)

A bad five-game stretch in mid-February that saw the Bucs go 1-4 cost them a conference title, but they are still the clear second favorites to claim the NCAA Tourney bid. This is mostly due to ETSU’s defense, which is the conference’s best, though the Bucs’ high pace of play masks this at first glance. They force a lot of turnovers, as you’d expect, and their defensive style means that opponents put up a lot of threes, which ETSU defends well. They are somewhat weak inside, but don’t give opponents a lot of chances there. Offensively, they don’t make a lot of turnovers, and get most of their chances inside the arc, where they shoot 51%.

Players to watch:

6-4 SR Kevin Tiggs, 21.0 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 2.2 SPG, 57.7 eFG% - Tiggs is the conference’s leading scorer, but his point totals are indicative of more than just the Bucs pace; he’s an incredibly efficient shooter. He’s 53% from the floor, which includes a good percentage from three, and gets to the line a lot, where 78% shooting can often add a lot to his point totals. He also leads the team in steals.

6-6 JR Mike Smith, 15.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 51.6 eFG% - Smith is the clear third offensive option (behind Tiggs and Courtney Pigram), but has thrived in this role, another player who augments a good inside shooting percentage with a nice touch from behind the arc and at the line. His real strength is on the glass, the team’s leading rebounder and the only Buc to record more than two double-doubles on the season.

#3 – Belmont Bruins (18-11, 14-6); Efficiency Margin: +0.097

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2008 (1^st Round)

After giving Duke a major challenge in last year’s NCAA Tournament, the Bruins came very close to repeating as conference champions, with a couple of losses to Jacksonville by a combined three points the difference in the title chase. Belmont features the conference’s most three-heavy offense, and when you make 36% of attempts, taking a lot tends to work out pretty well. When Belmont does go inside, it’s with great success, leading the A-Sun in two-point percentage. Still, it makes sense for them to be an outside-oriented team, as they get a lot of shots blocked, and are terrible interior defenders. Good perimeter play keeps them in it on the defensive end as well, as they hold opponents to just 32% on threes and force a lot of turnovers.

Players to watch:

6-2 SR Alex Renfroe, 16.3 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 4.9 APG, 2.2 SPG, 60.7 eFG% - Renfroe is probably the conference’s best all-around player, and Belmont’s Mr. Everything, leading the team in scoring, rebounding and assists. His two-point percentage is excellent for a 6-2 player, well over 60%, and his ability to assert himself inside his further demonstrated by his solid rebounding rates. He does have problems with turnovers at times, but has one of the country’s best assist rates, somewhat making up for it.

6-2 SR Andy Wicke, 11.6 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 3.4 APG, 2.3 SPG, 54.4 eFG% - On a team with a lot of three-point shooters, Wicke is both the most prolific and the best, hitting over 38% of attempts. He also leads the conference in steals, and is a great complimentary scoring option who receives a good chunk of Renfroe’s assists.

#4 – Lipscomb Bison (16-13, 12-8); Efficiency Margin: +0.107

Last NCAA Tournament bid: None

The hottest team in the conference, Lipscomb enter the tournament on an eight-game winning streak, and won’t pose an easy challenge for anyone in their way, leading the conference in both making and defending shots. Despite this, the Bison don’t lead the conference in either offense or defense, as they have some serious problems in other areas. On both ends of the court, they struggle with turnovers, committing too many and forcing too few. They get to the free throw line a lot, but leave a good number of points on the floor with one of the conference’s weaker shooting percentages. Defensively, they are somewhat vulnerable inside, despite holding opponents to a low FG% overall. This is a team that looks like it might be little better than EM would indicate, and should be considered a serious threat to cause an upset on its home floor.

Players to watch:

6-9, SO Adnan Hodzic, 17.9 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 59.6 eFG% - The Bosnian big man leads the Bison in both points and rebounds, and is the key to the team’s success, averaging nearly 20-and-9 during the 8 game win streak. He’s a 60% shooter from the field who will cause opponents a lot of headaches in the paint.

6-3, SR Michael Lusk, 8.8 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 3.6 APG, 60.8 eFG% - Like Hodzic, Lusk has been hot of late, including coming just one assist short of a triple-double in the Bison’s last game of the year. He doesn’t take a lot of shots, but when he does, he’s usually pretty effective, 46% from behind the arc. He’s also got a good assist rate, though like much of the team he struggles with turnovers.

#5 – Campbell Fighting Camels (14-15, 11-9); Efficiency Margin: +0.011

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1992 (1^st Round)

Campbell is another team that enters the tournament on a roll, having won its last four, including two against teams seeded above them, but it’s hard to see them extending that winning streak at all, let alone pulling off a big surprise to get the bid. When looking at the efficiency stats, there is a clear seperation between Campbell and the teams above it, as the Camels’ offense, well under a point per possession, is much weaker than that of the contenders. Campbell’s problem is its two-point shooting, which is under 45%, a number that makes it pretty hard to avoid wasting possessions. The same problem extends to the defensive end, where the Camels get pretty badly beaten inside, though they manage to make up for it by forcing a lot of turnovers and doing a good job on the defensive glass.

Players to watch:

6-5 JR Jonathan Rodriguez, 16.0 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 51.4 eFG% - Rodriguez is basically the lone offensive bright spot for Campbell, though his play has tapered off a little in recent weeks. He has a good outside shot, but does his best work inside the arc, where he makes over 50% of his attempts and sits third in the conference in rebounding.

6-1 FR Lorne Merthie, 9.9 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 1.6 SPG, 49.1 eFG% - The freshman is the Camels’ most frequent long-distance shooter, and at 41% he’s the most effective as well. His mid-30s percentage shooting from two means that he should stay behind the arc, though.

#6 – Mercer Bears (17-14, 11-9); Efficiency Margin: -0.006

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1985 (1^st Round)

Mercer is likely to have a tough time in the tournament, as the Bears have the worst defense of any of the teams headed to Nashville. They are the conference’s worst perimeter defenders, forcing few turnovers and allowing opponents to shoot 38% from behind the arc. They are a little better defending inside, but have a lot of trouble on the defensive glass. Offensively, Mercer is in the middle of the pack, good offensive rebounders who hold onto the ball, but isn’t a good enough shooting team to really take advantage of its possessions.

Players to watch:

6-8 JR Daniel Emerson, 14.0 PPG, 10.6 RPG, 50.8 eFG% - Emerson is the only player in the A-Sun to average a double-double, and is the Bears’ most efficient offensive player. Beyond his conference best rebounding, Emerson is a solid inside scorer, and has the ability to step out and hit a three-pointer. He also gets to the line a lot, where he shoots 70%.

6-1 JR James Florence, 20.8 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 3.7 APG, 2.3 SPG, 47.8 eFG% - Florence is the conference’s second leading scorer, but can often waste a lot of shots, especially from three, where he shoots less than 30%. When he’s hitting his threes, he’s an excellent player, generating steals and assists in addition to a lot of good chances inside, but when the threes don’t fall, he’ll probably cause more harm than good.

#7 – Stetson Hatters (13-16, 9-11); Efficiency Margin: -0.024

Last NCAA Tournament bid: None

The Hatters’ quest for their first NCAA bid looks like quite a long-shot; they’re the only below .500 conference team in the tournament, and enter it on a four game losing streak. They’re decent defenders, but have the tournament’s worst offense, and are one of the poorest shooting teams in the A-Sun. They hold onto the ball well, and get back a lot of their own misses, but when a team shoots under 40% from the field, it doesn’t really matter. Defensively, they’re right around the conference average, but are vulnerable to inside play, allowing opponents a high percentage from two.

Players to watch:

6-5 SR Garfield Blair, 17.5 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 48.7 eFG% - Blair leads the Hatters in both scoring and rebounding, and has come into the tournament on a roll, averaging more than 20 points in his last six games. His offensive game is much more perimeter oriented than you might expect from his rebounding numbers, he’s a 37% three-point shooter whose offensive problems come when he shoots inside, where his numbers are less than impressive.

6-0 JR A.J. Smith, 12.2 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 3.6 APG, 44.2 eFG% - Smith is one of those players who undoes a lot of the good work he does with mistakes, giving the ball up a lot and shooting under 40% on two-point shots. Beyond that, he’s an effective guard, a solid three-point shooter and leading the team in assists.

My statistical all-Atlantic Sun team:

Jacksonville JR G Ben Smith, 16.7 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 4.0 APG, 2.3 SPG, 51.1 eFG%

East Tennessee St. SR G Kevin Tiggs, 21.0 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 2.2 SPG, 57.7 eFG%

Belmont SR G Alex Renfroe, 16.3 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 4.9 APG, 2.2 SPG, 60.7 eFG%

Mercer JR F Daniel Emerson, 14.0 PPG, 10.6 RPG, 50.8 eFG%

South Carolina Upstate SR F Bobby Davis, 14.6 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 54.0 eFG%

NCAA Basketball Conference Ranking: 2008-09

CHN — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 00:30:46 -0500

CHN's 31 conference ranking, including 10 year historical averages based on average RPI finish. For more information on historical RPI averages, check out the Conference Data Page. Links lead to league preview pages.

Big East

10 Year Average: 3

10 Year Average: 1

10 Year Average: 2

10 Year Average: 5

10 Year Average: 6

10 Year Average: 4

10 Year Average: 10

10 Year Average: 7

10 Year Average: 9

WCC

10 Year Average: 12

11 Conference USA

10 Year Average: 8

12 Colonial

10 Year Average: 14

13 MAC

10 Year Average: 13

14 WAC

10 Year Average: 11

15 MAAC

10 Year Average: 17

16 Horizon

10 Year Average: 15

17 Southern

10 Year Average: 19

18 Sun Belt

10 Year Average: 16

19 Big West

10 Year Average: 18

20 Patriot

10 Year Average: 23

21 Southland

10 Year Average: 27

22 Ivy

10 Year Average: 24

23 Big Sky

10 Year Average: 20

24 America East

10 Year Average: 21

25 Summit

10 Year Average: 26

26 OVC

10 Year Average: 22

27 NEC

10 Year Average: 28

28 Atlantic Sun

10 Year Average: 25

29 Big South

10 Year Average: 29

30 MEAC

10 Year Average: 30

-Independents

31 SWAC

10 Year Average: 31

Atlantic Sun Basketball Preview: 08-09

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 14:11:25 -0500

Conference Rank: 28th

10 year average: 25th

Conference Page

All-ATLANTIC SUN Team
Pos.	Player	Team	Yr.

G	James Florence	Mercer	Jr
G	Courntey Pigram	ETSU	Sr
G/F	Shane Dansby	Belmont	Sr
F	Marcus Allen	Jacksonville	Sr
F	Jonathan Rodriguez	Campbell	Jr
CHN Award Winners		Returning Leaders
Mid-Major All-Americans Courtney Pigram Jonathan Rodriguez		Points: Jonathan Rodriguez 20.9 Rebounds: Jonathan Rodriguez 10.1 Assists: Rob Quaintaince (FGCU) 5.3

ATLANTIC SUN Standings
Nat'l	Team	League	Tourney

109	Belmont* **	Asun	1	NCAA
156	Stetson	Asun	2
176	Jacksonville	Asun	3
227	East Tennessee	Asun	4
248	Lipscomb	Asun	5
275	Mercer	Asun	6
296	Kennesaw St	Asun	7
302	Campbell	Asun	8
313	Florida Gulf Coast	Asun	9
320	USC Upstate	Asun	10
344	North Florida	Asun	11

*Click on links for full Top 144 team preview

** returning conference champion

Poll: Who Do You Think Will Win the Atlantic Sun?

Other ATLANTIC SUN Content

Conference Media Poll

Belmont Favored in A-Sun Media Poll

Interviews

Rick Byrd: Belmont Head Coach

Other

Rise & Fall: A-Sun

Daily Conference Poll: Who Will Win the Atlantic Sun?

Shawn Siegel — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 10:59:55 -0400