Big East

Thursday's Sweet 16 Thoughts

Raphielle Johnson — Tue, 20 Mar 2012 10:25:26 -0700

With the Sweet 16 not tipping off for another two days, this seemed like a good time to offer up some basic thoughts on the match-ups. Here are the four games in the East and West regions, where play will begin on Thursday night.

East Region (Boston)

(1) Syracuse vs. (4) Wisconsin (7:15 PM, CBS)
This will be an interesting matchup due to the 3-point shot. Playing against a zone defense tends to lead teams in the direction of attempting more shots from beyond the arc than they normally do, but Wisconsin may be fine with that. Bo Ryan's team scores 36.3% of its points on the 3-pointer, and they've got multiple players who can and will fire away.

Rob Wilson's played well down the stretch for Wisconsin, providing another perimeter scorer to go along with senior point guard Jordan Taylor. Mike Bruesewitz and Ryan Evans will both step out on the perimeter, and there's also Ben Brust and Josh Gasser for Syracuse to account for. However if there's one thing that Syracuse does well in defending the three (30.7%) it that they know who they want taking those shots.

Syracuse can also extend their defense due to the activity of a guard like Dion Waiters and the length of their wings. The three will be the most discussed factor going into Thursday's contest, but there's also the matter of how well Rakeem Christmas plays. The freshman had a very good second half against Kansas State, and he'll need to do that for all 40 minutes against Jared Berggren.

How well will the Syracuse guards play in what should be a slower tempo than they prefer (Wisconsin averages eight fewer possessions per game)? Waiters, Scoop Jardine and Brandon Triche can't get out of control in hopes of speeding things up, and the same likely goes for a Kris Joseph as well. Lastly keep an eye on how well Syracuse cleans up the offensive glass. The Badgers aren't world-beaters when it comes to offensive rebounds, but there will be opportunities against a team that allows opponents to grab 39.7% of their misses.

(2) Ohio State vs. (6) Cincinnati (9:45 PM, CBS)
It's a chore to get these two schools to play each other, and that will add intrigue to the second half of Thursday's doubleheader in Boston. While Cincinnati has gone small they do have bodies in the paint, led by Yancy Gates and Justin Jackson. But the question for Cincinnati is how do they go about slowing down Deshaun Thomas. With Jaquon Parker at the "4" to start things off, look for the Buckeyes to try to get Thomas going early.

The combo of Thomas and Jared Sullinger is tough for just about any team to stop, and that could be the case for the Bearcats if Yates were to land in early foul trouble. The key to limiting their paint touches may actually lie on the perimeter, where it's imperative that Cincinnati not allow Aaron Craft and others clean looks into the post. William Buford can hurt teams in a variety of ways offensively, but forcing him to take challenged shots is the way to go there.

Which UC guard is the most important one for the Buckeyes to slow down? That would be Cashmere Wright, as he runs the show. Wright has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.1, and to reach that number (if not better) against Craft would bode well for the Bearcats' chances. He'll have help from Dion Dixon and Sean Kilpatrick is a very good perimeter shooter who can get hot, but Wright's play may determine the outcome.

Both teams have done well when it comes to forcing turnovers (UC: 14.1, OSU: 14.7) but the Buckeyes have been the more efficient of the two on both ends of the floor. Paint touches for the Buckeyes and the number of 3-pointers that Cincinnati can make (they will take a lot of them) are areas to keep an eye on in the nightcap.

West Region (Phoenix)

(1) Michigan State vs. (4) Louisville (7:47 PM, TBS)
A rematch of the 2009 Midwest regional final, these two teams enter in different roles this time around. That season Louisville was the top overall seed in the tournament coming off of a blowout win over Arizona, only to see the Spartans advance to the Final Four. While Louisville has played their best basketball of the season over the last two weeks, they'll be the underdog against Michigan State.

The biggest question for the Cardinals is how they go about defending Draymond Green, who is as influential a players as you'll find in the country. He can score inside or out, is a good distributor and will also hit the glass. Louisville will pressure and then use an active 2-3 zone, so that may help slow Green down some. But one would have to think that he'll spend a lot of time in the high post, an important area to target in regards to cracking the 2-3 zone.

From an efficieny standpoint the Spartans are the better offensive team and that has a lot to do with the fact that they don't settle for bad shots. The same can't always be said for Louisville, especially guards Peyton Siva and Russ Smith. Both are going to play fast and that's fine, but the Cardinals can't afford for them to play reckless. Keith Appling will be dared to shoot by Louisville, and Michigan State will hope that his big shot against Saint Louis gives the sophomore some added confidence in his ability to make the Cardinals pay.

Two other players to watch for Michigan State are Derrick Nix and Adriean Payne, who have both played well down the stretch for the Spartans. Michigan State is the superior rebounding team, and if these two can build on what they've been able to produce (especially last weekend in Columbus) it will be a tough match-up for Chane Behanan and Gorgui Dieng. Louisville needs Kyle Kuric and Chris Smith to be productive on the wings, and with MSU's Branden Dawson done for the year it may be even more important that the Cardinals take advantage of his absence and do so.

(3) Marquette vs. (7) Florida (10:17 PM, TBS)
While both teams have rotations dominated by guards the big men may have the final say as to which team advances to the Elite 8. Marquette was able to get 12 minutes out of Davante Gardner on Saturday in spite of his balky knee, but it remains to be seen how effective he can be against Florida. The days off should help Gardner recuperate some, and that's crucial as he'll likely see a lot of Patric Young when on the floor.

Young is a highly-athletic big man who gets high-percentage looks around the rim. The key for Young is whether his teammates fall in love with the three. If Florida takes smart perimeter shots they're tough to beat, but clearly that hasn't always been the case. Erik Murphy can step out and knock down threes, giving Florida a "stretch 4" that's tough for most teams to match up with.

Marquette can counter with Jae Crowder however, so Murphy's impact could most likely be lessened on Thursday. Jamil Wilson will be in the rotation of forwards who get a shot at defending Young, and if he can get Marquette in some early foul trouble that would bode well for the Florida. On the perimeter Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker have to make sound decisions with the basketball, and that includes making sure Bradley Beal gets his touches. The freshman is a tough matchup for anyone, and that includes Marquette despite their perimeter skill.

Can Florida slow down Darius Johnson-Odom? One would think that Boynton and Beal would be the two most likely given this task, and if they can mix things up in terms of the looks that Johnson-Odom sees that would be optimal. Vander Blue, Junior Cadougan and Todd Mayo will also factor into the Marquette attack, and with Mayo playing well last week that gives them another perimeter option who can get things done.

Marquette's done a good job of defending the three but they haven't been as good on the defensive glass, allowing opponents to grab 35.5% of their misses. Florida scores 38% of their points on 3-pointers while Marquette allows teams just 27% of their points on the shot, so something has to give there.

Tempo neutral stats courtesy of statsheet.com.

Jon Teitel's Coaching Greats: Louisville's Denny Crum

Jon Teitel — Tue, 20 Mar 2012 00:18:42 -0700

Recently as part of his "Coaching Greats" interview series CHN writer Jon Teitel spent some time with former Louisville head coach Denny Crum. During his time in the "Derby City", Crum led the Cardinals to 23 NCAA appearances and two national titles.

Jon Teitel: Your nickname is "Cool Hand Luke". Who gave it to you, and how do you like it?

Denny Crum: Al McGuire gave me that handle because I never seemed flustered during tournament games. He said it on the air once and it kind of stuck. I always felt that I was under control and could tell what was going on.

JT: You began your playing career at Los Angeles Pierce College, but in 1956 you transferred to UCLA to play for Coach John Wooden. Why did you decide to transfer, and what was it like to play for Coach Wooden?

DC: I had always wanted to go to UCLA but they did not think I was good enough to recruit coming out of high school. I led the state in scoring during my freshman year at Pierce with over 27 points per game, and after that Coach Wooden came to watch me play, which he did not do often.

JT: After graduating you returned to UCLA to be an assistant coach and chief recruiter for Coach Wooden. How did you like working under Coach Wooden, and was it easy to recruit because of your school's winning tradition?

DC: Recruiting is never easy, but I got Coach Wooden to come down to San Diego to watch Bill Walton play because I told him that Walton was the best high school player I had ever seen. Coach thought I was nuts but that was my opinion, and we ended up getting Walton along with five other good freshmen.

JT: You are widely credited with pioneering the now-common strategy of scheduling tough non-conference match-ups early in the season in order to prepare your team for the NCAA tournament. How did you come up with that plan, and did it ever backfire on you?

DC: We had some years that were better than others based more on the talent level than the coaching. I felt that if we could find out in November and December what our weaknesses were then it would help us down the road. Good teams can exploit your weaknesses. If you are hung up on your won-loss record, then you might not schedule difficult opponents. It is nice to be undefeated going into conference play, but you are cheating your team and fans if you just play a bunch of bad teams.

JT: Your team was famous for running a man-to-man defense that switched on all picks. Why did you go with that defense, and what would your team do if your guard had to switch to defending a big man?

DC: Our philosophy was to front the guy in the post and play someone behind him. If you switch then no matter the size of the guy who switches you have two players guarding him. We had a bunch of big guards but only a couple of 7-footers in my career.

JT: In 1971 you decided to become head coach at Louisville. Why did you take the job, and what was the biggest difference between that program and UCLA?

DC: At Louisville we did not have any superstars like Walton or Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, but we made a living by recruiting good athletes out of the south and then teaching them the things they did not know.

JT: In 1972 you made it to your first Final Four as head coach. How were you able to come in and be so successful so quickly?

DC: At first I was stupid enough to think that was just the way it was supposed to be due to our success at UCLA! We just had a bunch of good players who worked hard and played together. I told them early on that I thought we could be a really good team and they bought into it.

1977 World University Games

JT: Your roster included Larry Bird, Darrell Griffith, and Sidney Moncrief. Was that the most talented team you have ever been around?

DC: Probably. They asked me to coach and I said that I wanted to pick my own players instead of having a committee pick them. We had great talent that was very coachable, and we did not get any weaker when we put in our bench guys.

JT: A bench-clearing brawl broke out in your game vs. Cuba. What started the fight, and how were you able to get your team's focus back on track?

DC: I was talking to one of my players on the court and some 30-something-year-old Cuban player came over and just pushed me into the stands, so my players ran out and started mixing it up. I think we won the fight, and we also won the game (which made it even better). Our guys were not intimidated by Cuba's aggressive style and we stepped it up a notch after the fight.

JT: You beat the USSR to win the gold medal. What did it mean to you to win a gold medal, and how did it compare to later winning an NCAA title?

DC: At the time I really enjoyed it. It was great to win it...but I would have a hard time saying it was better than winning an NCAA title with your own team and your own players.

1980 NCAA tournament

JT: Rolando Blackman made a 10-foot jumper to tie the game at the end of regulation, but Tony Branch made a 15-foot jumper with one second left to clinch a two-point overtime win over Kansas State. Could you tell at the time that Blackman was going to become a star, and where does Branch's shot rank among the most clutch shots you have ever seen?

DC: Branch had gone in for Griffith after he fouled out. He worked hard every day and was tougher than nails mentally, so it did not surprise me that he made the shot. To win without Darrell was a big victory. Blackman was already a star and there was no doubt he was going to be great in the NBA.

JT: You had an overtime win over Texas A&M despite shooting less than 40% from the field. How were you able to get the win despite shooting so poorly?

DC: That is a tough one to answer. You have to give Texas A&M credit for that: they were a good team. We just fought and scrapped even though we did not shoot it well.

JT: You beat LSU in large part due to a three-quarter court trap that you had introduced earlier that week. Why did you decide to use that strategy, and why was it so successful?

DC: LSU was not prepared for it: they had not played anyone who switched on man-to-man defense against their two big men. We did not let them catch it where they wanted to shoot it.

JT: Darrell Griffith scored 34 points (14-21 FG) in an eight-point win over Iowa after you did a pre-game locker room dance to loosen everyone up. Was Iowa star Ronnie Lester's first half knee injury the turning point of the game?

DC: Lester hurt his knee and missed most of that season. He was a really good player.

JT: Tournament MOP Griffith scored 23 points in a five-point win over your alma mater to clinch the title. What did it mean to you to win the title, and how did it feel to have to go through UCLA to do so?

DC: We had lost to them three times in the previous eight tournaments. At halftime I told my team that it was a shame that we had gotten all the way here and then played so poorly. Griff made a three-point play down the stretch and we were off and running: we deserved that win.

JT: That year's team (specifically Derek Smith) was credited with popularizing the "high five". Who actually started it, and what did you think the first time you saw it?

DC: It was Derek and Wiley Brown who did that. When they came to school they both spoke Pig Latin to each other so that nobody could understand what they were saying. They just had a flair for doing those kinds of things.

1986 NCAA tournament

JT: You beat Drexel after Milt Wagner wondered if Drexel was "one of them academic schools". Were you worried that Wagner was going to provide bulletin board material for your opponent?

DC: Milt had missed the previous season due to a foot injury and lost some of his quickness. We knew at the end of the game that we could just put the ball in his hands and he could make some free throws if he got fouled.

JT: Wagner and Pervis Ellison each scored 16 points in a win over Bradley (Hersey Hawkins scored 22 to lead the Braves). Could you tell at the time that Hawkins was going to become a star?

DC: Yes. He was an outstanding athlete who had great size for a guard. I would have liked to have him on my team.

JT: Billy Thompson had 25 points and nine rebounds in a win over North Carolina. What was it like to coach against Dean Smith, and how proud were you of your team making 15-16 FT in the final three minutes?

DC: Free throw shooting is one advantage that I always felt we had, and we also made good decisions down the stretch. I think North Carolina and Duke were the only two teams ranked #1 all season long and we had to beat them both to win the title.

JT: Herbert Crook had 20 points and 11 rebounds in an eight-point win over Auburn. Why did you decide to switch to a zone defense in the second half, and why did it work so well?

DC: We actually waited until about eight minutes were left in the game. We had worked on it in practice and I just thought it would be effective.

JT: Wagner had 22 points and 11 rebounds in a win over LSU. What was the mood of your team like going into the title game, and did you think you could win it all?

DC: We had a good team the previous year even though our record did not reflect it, so we were feeling good going into the title game.

JT: Tournament MOP Ellison had 25 points and 11 rebounds in a three-point win over Duke to clinch the title. How did that title compare with your first one, and how were you able to hang on and win the game?

DC: Johnny Dawkins had a big game early so we tried to focus on him down the stretch. Both titles were great but winning your first one is always special. Having a guy like Milt come back from injury and win it all was nice as well. We were trailing most of the game but were able to come back at the end.

JT: You were named National Coach of the Year three times in a 7-year span. What did it mean to you to win such outstanding individual honors, and do you consider yourself to be one of the best coaches in the history of the sport?

DC: I will let other people judge that but we went out of our way to play the toughest schedule we could. We had four Final Four teams and won two titles in the 1980s, which was significant because not too many other teams accomplished that.

JT: In 1987 you coached Team USA (featuring Danny Manning and David Robinson) in the Pan American Games in Indianapolis and won a silver medal after a five-point loss to Brazil in the championship game (Oscar Schmidt scored 35 points in the second half to finish with 46). Could you tell at the time that Robinson was going to become a star, and where does Oscar's performance rank among the best you have ever seen?

DC: Oscar was out of his tree! We switched on defense and did whatever we could but it was just one of those nights that great players can have. We were good enough against most other teams, but Oscar just threw them in from everywhere. We felt that Robinson was going to be a special player, even though he was a late developer.

JT: In 1994 you were inducted into the Hall of Fame. What did it mean to you to be inducted, and where did that rank among your all-time accomplishments?

DC: That represents an entire career, which is very special. You have to get an active Hall of Fame member to present you, and to have Coach Wooden do that for me meant a lot. You never think about making the Hall as your career goes along but I was as proud as could be when I got in.

JT: In 2007 Louisville named its home floor at Freedom Hall "Denny Crum Court". What was your reaction when you learned of the decision to name the court after you?

DC: I was tickled to death. I coached there for 30 years and there were no statues or anything, so I felt really honored.

JT: You play professional poker and breed horses. How did you get into those hobbies, and which one do you enjoy more?

DC: I got out of the horse business a few years ago but loved every minute of it. It was fun to take an active part in it and watch the horses run and congratulate the jockeys after a race. My college roommate had a poker room so we would golf in the morning, watch horse races in the afternoon, and play poker at night. I really enjoyed playing in the poker tournaments and now have my own tournament at a casino (the Denny Crum Poker Open), which is a lot of fun. I enjoy the competition and I can remain fairly good at it even after getting old.

Crum is also on Jon's list of best coaches in Big East history.

Cincinnati: Bob Huggins (1989-2005) 399-127, 14 NCAA tourneys, 10 conference titles, 1-time national COY, 3-time conference COY
Connecticut: Jim Calhoun (1986-present) 627-244, 17 NCAA tourneys, 10 conference titles, 3 NCAA titles, 1 NIT title, 1-time national COY, 4-time conference COY
DePaul: Ray Meyer (1942-1984) 724-354, 13 NCAA tourneys, 5 conference titles, 1 NIT title, 4-time national COY
Georgetown: John Thompson (1972-1999) 596-239, 20 NCAA tourneys, 7 conference titles, 1 NCAA title, 4-time national COY, 3-time conference COY
Louisville: Denny Crum (1971-2001) 675-295, 23 NCAA tourneys, 15 conference titles, 2 NCAA titles, 2-time national COY, 2-time conference COY
Marquette: Al McGuire (1964-1977) 296-79, 9 NCAA tourneys, 1 conference title, 1 NCAA title, 1 NIT title, 2-time national COY
Notre Dame: George Keogan (1923-1943) 327-97, 2 Helms titles
Pittsburgh: Henry Clifford "Doc" Carlson (1922-1953) 367-247, 1 NCAA tourney, 5 conference titles, 2 Helms titles
Providence: Joe Mullaney (1957-1969, 1981-1985) 290-147, 3 NCAA tourneys, 2 conference titles, 2 NIT titles
Rutgers: Tom Young (1973-1985) 239-116, 4 NCAA tourneys, 5 conference titles, 1-time national COY
Seton Hall: John "Honey" Russell (1936-1943, 1950-1960) 295-129, 1 conference title, 1 NIT title
USF: Bobby Paschal (1986-1996) 127-159, 2 NCAA tourneys
St. John's: Lou Carnesecca (1965-1970, 1973-1992) 526-200, 18 NCAA tourneys, 5 conference titles, 1 NIT title, 2-time national COY, 3-time conference COY
Syracuse: Jim Boeheim (1976-present) 889-303, 28 NCAA tourneys, 8 conference titles, 1 NCAA title, 1-time national COY, 4-time conference COY
Villanova: Rollie Massimino (1973-1992) 355-241, 11 NCAA tourneys, 5 conference titles, 1 NCAA title, 3-time conference COY
West Virginia: Gale Catlett (1978-2002) 439-276, 8 NCAA tourneys, 4 conference titles, 1-time conference COY

Saturday's Conference Tournament Primer

Raphielle Johnson — Sat, 10 Mar 2012 06:40:33 -0800

Pac-12 - Title Game
#4 Arizona vs. #6 Colorado, 6:10 p.m. (CBS)

With Selection Sunday just a day away, one of the big questions out there is how the selection committee will deal with the Pac-12. The league that's underachieved in historic fashion this season will get at least one team into the field (since that's the rule), but how many more? Regular season champion Washington and runner-up California have both been eliminated, leaving them at the mercy of the committee. The best thing for a team to do is make sure they remain in control of their own fate, which is what Arizona and Colorado have done by reaching the conference title game.

Colorado, in their first season in the Pac-12, has exceeded all expectations and that's that a credit to the job that Tad Boyle has done. Picked to finish in a tie for tenth in October, the Buffaloes managed to win 11 league games despite some major personnel losses and now sit one game away from their first NCAA tournament appearance since 2003. A balanced effort, with four players reaching double figures, is what got them past Cal on Friday night and a similar performance will be needed if they're to beat Arizona.

As for the Wildcats they've reached the final despite having to suspend point guard Josiah Turner, but to be fair was the personnel loss that big? Sean Miller's team may not have a "perfect" option at the point but they've got some versatile guys who can help with the duties. Nick Johnson has played some point as has Jordin Mayes, and senior Kyle Foog has been a "jack of all trades" kind of player on the perimeter. Add in forwards Jesse Perry and Solomon Hill and you've got a solid nucleus than can give opposing teams fits.

The home team won both of the regular season meetings, with Arizona putting forth the better performance in their victory than CU did in theirs. If Carlon Brown can continue his solid play for one more game the Buffs are more than capable of winning and grabbing that automatic bid, and forward Andre Roberson is a warrior on the glass. Last year's game went down to the wire, with Washington's Isaiah Thomas providing a moment that few will ever forget. With there not being much separating Arizona and Colorado we could be headed towards a similar finish today.

America East - Title Game
#2 Vermont at #1 Stony Brook, 11:02 a.m. (ESPN2)

The top two seeds in America East meet for a trip to the NCAA tournament, and it's interesting that Vermont's loss to Binghamton ended up being the difference. The home team won both meetings, and in a tight gym like Stony Brook's the Seawolves likely hold an advantage there. But with Matt Glass and Four McGlynn among other players, the Catamounts are more than capable of leaving Long Island with the title. For Stony Brook they need a good day at the point from Bryan Dougher, but he's going to have his hands full with Sandro Carissimo being one of the conference's best on-ball defenders.

ACC - Semifinals
#1 North Carolina vs. #5 NC State, 1:00 p.m. (ESPN/ACC Network)
#2 Duke vs. #3 Florida State, 3:00 p.m. (ESPN/ACC Network)

The team with the most to gain in Atlanta is NC State, who may have sealed their trip to the NCAA tournament with their win over Virginia on Friday afternoon. But a win over the Tar Heels, who may not have John Henson (wrist), would be quite the achievement due not only to their NCAA hopes but also he fact that Carolina won both regular season meetings by comfortable margins. In game two it's the rematch of a thriller at Cameron, won by the Seminoles on a Michael Snaer three as time expired (Duke did win the return meeting in Tallahassee).

Florida State's coming off one of the best offensive performances of the season, turning the ball over just 11 times and finishing their win over Miami with an efficiency of 122.1. Ian Miller and company will need to take care of the ball against Duke if they're to win, and with Ryan Kelly out this weekend the Seminole big men will have an edge from a depth standpoint.

Atlantic 10 - Semifinals
#8 Massachusetts vs. #4 St. Bonaventure, 1:00pm (CBS SN)
#2 Saint Louis vs. #3 Xavier, 3:30pm (CBS SN)

Xavier may be in following their win over Dayton last night but why leave anything to chance? In order to reach Sunday's final they're going to have to beat Saint Louis, who is one of the most disciplined teams in America. Rick Majerus has done an outstanding job with the Billikens, and players such as Brian Conklin and Kwamain Mitchell have played well all year long. In the first semifinal it's UMass and St. Bonaventure, which should provide an interesting contrast in styles. Point guard Chaz Williams has been outstanding for the Minutemen, and the same goes for the Bonnies' Andrew Nicholson. If St. Bonaventure can take care of the ball and not end up in a track meet, which is what UMass wants, they'd likely be the favorite to advance.

Big 12 - Title Game
#4 Baylor vs. #2 Missouri, 6:00 p.m. (ESPN)

Both teams have a lot to gain from this one. Baylor, who knocked off Kansas on Friday night, could pick up wins over the top two teams in the conference in consecutive days and that would be quite some confidence boost heading into the Big Dance. As for the Tigers, a win could put them in line for a one-seed if not at the very least having their road to the Final Four goiing through St. Louis. A.J. Walton has been a bit of an unsung hero for the Bears this week, and they're going to need more of the same from him against Missouri's talented backcourt. And it's safe to say that Marcus Denmon is going 0-for-10 as he did in the Tigers' win over Texas.

Big East - Title Game
#4 Cincinnati vs. #7 Louisville, 9:00 p.m. (ESPN)

Despite their shared history throughout the years, this is just the second time that the Bearcats and Cardinals have met in a conference tournament final (1981 as members of the Metro Conference). The transformation made by Mick Cronin's team throughout the season has been something else, and with the Bearcats playing as they are a Big East title is definitely possible. The same goes for Louisville with point guard Peyton Siva playing as well as he has in New York. One more solid performance from Yancy Gates could be enough to push Cincinnati to the Big East title, but he'll have his hands full with Chane Behanan and Gorgui Dieng. Look for this one to go right down to the wire.

Big Ten - Semifinals
#1 Michigan State vs. #4 Wisconsin, 1:40 p.m. (CBS)
#3 Michigan vs. #2 Ohio State, 4:05 p.m. (CBS)

The top four seeds all advanced to the semifinals for the first time in the history of the Big Ten tournament and neither matchup should disappoint. Michigan State swept the regular season series with the Badgers, and as it's been pointed out the 2000 national champions beat the Badgers four times on their way to the title. That's going to be far easier said than done this time around, especially with Rob Wilson playing his best basketball at just the right time. In game two Ohio State and Michigan meet for the third time, with the home team winning both meetings. Jared Sullinger was outstanding in the Buckeyes' win over Purdue and the same goes for Michigan's Trey Burke in their win over Minnesota.

Big West - Title Game
#1 Long Beach State, #3 UCSB, 10:00 pm (ESPN2)

Remains to be seen whether or not the 49ers can grab an at-large bid, but at the very least they'd want to win this one for pride. UCSB has won the last two Big West tournaments, and with Orlando Johnson a third is possible.

Conference USA - Title Game
#6 Marshall vs. #1 Memphis, 11:35 a.m. (CBS)

A Memphis win could make C-USA a two-bid league with Southern Miss being the other team. Should Marshall win, the league is likely looking at three bids. Bubble team will be tuned into this one. Will Barton's played at an All-America level this season, and Marshall's got an experienced group led by Damier Pitts and DeAndre Kane.

Great West - Title Game
#4 NJIT vs. #2 North Dakota, 5:00 p.m.

The winner gets an automatic berth to the CIT, and with North Dakota having won the league last season they'll likely be motivated by the prospects of a repeat. NJIT brings Chris Flores and Isaiah Wilkerson to the table, and a tournament title would be quite the achievement for a program just a few years removed from one of the longest losing streaks in Division I history.

MAC - Title Game
#1 Akron vs. #3 Ohio, 8:00 p.m. (ESPN2)

The winner goes to the Big Dance while the loser is likely NIT-bound. Zeke Marshall has played well for Akron and the same goes for Ohio point guard D.J. Cooper. Keith Dambrot's team won the regular season title but the Bobcats are more than capable of knocking them off, evidenced by their resounding win over the Zips in Athens just a couple weeks ago.

MEAC - Title Game
#4 Bethune-Cookman vs. #2 Norfolk State, 1:00 PM (ESPN2)

Regular season champ Savannah State may not be here but the team many expected to win the conference, Norfolk State, is. Kyle O'Quinn is a force inside for the Spartans, and BCC is going to need to account for him if they're to win. On the other side Clifford Reed has relied on a balanced attack, with Adrien Coleman and Kevin Dukes leading four players in double figures with an average of 11.5 points per game.

Mountain West - Title Game
#1 San Diego State vs. #2 New Mexico, 7:00 p.m.(NBC SN)

The top two seeds in the Mountain West meet for the third time this season, with the road teams winning both meetings. UNM's victory came during their huge week that also included a resounding home win over UNLV. The key for SDSU defensively is simple yet difficult to carry out: keep Drew Gordon from consistently establishing position in the paint. Tim Shelton, Garrett Green and DeShawn Stephens will be key in this regard. UNM's going to need their guard to play well given the fact that the Aztecs lean on MWC Player of the Year Jamaal Franklin and Chase Tapley. Demetrius Walker has played well off the bench for the Lobos, averaging 15.5 points per game off the bench this week.

SEC - Semifinals
#1 Kentucky vs. #4 Florida, 1:00 p.m. (ABC)
#7 Ole Miss vs. #3 Vanderbilt, 3:30 p.m. (ABC)

Similar to NC State in the ACC tournament there's one team with a lot to gain and three others who have a good idea where they're headed. Ole Miss moved a step closer to an NCAA berth on Friday night with their win over Tennessee, and a win over Vanderbilt this afternoon would likely put them into the field. Game one is all about confidence, as Kentucky won both regular season meetings by solid margins. If Florida can win that would be quite a boost for Billy Donovan's team, but he's going to need solid play from Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker in order to get the desired result.

Southland - Title Game
#3 Lamar vs. #4 McNeese St., 3:00 p.m. (ESPN2)

Much was made of Pat Knight's scathing critique of his senior class, but the fact of the matter is that Lamar hasn't lost a game since. Senior Mike James can score with the best of them provided he exercises good shot selection, and he'll need to do so against a McNeese State team that knocked off top-seed UT Arlington in Thursday's semifinals.

SWAC - Title Game
#2 Texas Southern vs. #1 Mississippi Valley State, 8:00 p.m. (ESPNU)

The top two seeds meet but there's quite the gap between the Delta Devils and Texas Southern, who would be the three seed had Southern been eligible to compete. Paul Crosby and Cor-J Cox lead the way for MVSU, who dominated the SWAC and play a style similar to what their head coach (Sean Woods) played under Rick Pitino at Kentucky. It would be a major surprise if Mississippi Valley State didn't win this one.

WAC - Title Game
#2 New Mexico State vs. #5 Louisiana Tech, Midnight (ESPN2)

Louisiana Tech pulled off the upset of the night on Friday as they knocked off top-seed Nevada, possibly relegating the Wolf Pack to the NIT. Next up is two-seed New Mexico State, who features Wendell McKines and freshman Daniel Mullings has played good basketball over the last month. The key for Marvin Menzies' team: no mental letdown. One would think that they came into the weekend expecting another shot at Nevada, but they can ill-afford to go into the game underestimating Louisiana Tech.

Conference Finals Predictions: Big 12, Big East, Pac-12 & More

Greg Mengelt — Fri, 09 Mar 2012 23:52:34 -0800

Our g ame prediction guru Greg Mengelt has been on fire this year. Here are is predictions for Saturday's conference championship game. Read more about Championship Week at CollegeHoops.net.

AMERICA EAST FINAL: AT STONY BROOK

(2) Vermont (22-11, 13-3) at (1) Stony Brook (22-8, 14-2)

Tipoff: 11:02 a.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 2 – Stony Brook 65-59; Feb. 12 – Vermont 68-49. RPI: Stony Brook 141, Vermont 156. Analysis: Vermont has been great for the last month-and-a-half and will break the hearts of the Seawolves home faithful. Line: Stony Brook -3½. Pick: Vermont 63, Stony Brook 58.

BIG 12 FINAL: AT KANSAS CITY

(2) Missouri (28-4, 14-4) vs. (4) Baylor (27-6, 12-6)

Tipoff: 6 p.m. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 21 – Missouri 89-88*; Feb. 11 – Missouri 72-57. RPI: Baylor 8, Missouri 17. Analysis: I picked Baylor the first two times. Sticking with the Bears. Pick: Baylor 79, Missouri 74.

BIG EAST FINAL: AT NEW YORK CITY

(4) Cincinnati (24-9, 12-6) vs. (7) Louisville (25-9, 10-8)

Tipoff: 9 p.m. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 23 – Cincinnati 60-56. RPI: Louisville 18, Cincinnati 40. Analysis: Louisville’s stifling defense has carried the Cardinals this far. A Big East title is next. Pick: Louisville 59, Cincinnati 53.

BIG WEST FINAL: AT ANAHEIM

(1) Long Beach State (24-8, 15-1) vs. (2) UC-Santa Barbara (20-9, 12-4)

Tipoff: 10 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 21 – Long Beach 71-48*; Feb. 22 – Long Beach 70-58. RPI: Long Beach 38, UCSB 126. Analysis: Do you think the 49ers have been looking forward to this game for a full year? They want blood – and they’ll get blood. Pick: Long Beach State 75, UC-Santa Barbara 54.

CONFERENCE USA FINAL: AT MEMPHIS

(1) Memphis (25-8, 13-3) vs. (6) Marshall (21-12, 9-7)

Tipoff: 11:35 a.m. TV: CBS. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 28 – Memphis 83-76; Feb. 25 – Memphis 87-67*. RPI: Memphis 16, Marshall 39. Analysis: The Memphis we’ve seen since the beginning of February is the Memphis we expected to see all season. Line: Memphis -9½. Pick: Memphis 90, Marshall 69.

MAC FINAL: AT CLEVELAND

(1) Akron (22-10, 13-3) vs. (3) Ohio (25-7, 11-5)

Tipoff: 8 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 14 – Akron 68-63; Feb. 26 – Ohio 85-61. RPI: Akron 50, Ohio 68. Analysis: Ohio had a disappointing regular season. It will be a memory because the Bobcats are going dancing. Pick: Ohio 75, Akron 68.

MEAC FINAL: AT WINSTON-SALEM, N.C.

(2) Norfolk State (24-9, 13-3) vs. (4) Bethune-Cookman (18-16, 11-5)

Tipoff: 1 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 25 – Norfolk State 75-72*. RPI: Norfolk State 134, B-C 243. Analysis: Norfolk is the class of the MEAC. Pick: Norfolk State 78, Bethune-Cookman 66.

MOUNTAIN WEST FINAL: AT LAS VEGAS

(1) San Diego State (26-6, 10-4) vs. (2) New Mexico (25-6, 10-4)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. TV: NBC Sports Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 18 – San Diego State 75-70*; Feb. 15 – New Mexico 77-67*. RPI: San Diego State 22, New Mexico 34. Analysis: How good did the Pack look in a virtual road game on Friday? Whoa! Pick: New Mexico 79, San Diego State 73.

PAC-12 FINAL: AT LOS ANGELES

(4) Arizona (23-10, 12-6) vs. (6) Colorado (22-11, 11-7)

Tipoff: 6:10 p.m. TV: CBS. Regular-season meetings: Jan 21 – Colorado 64-63; Feb. 9 – Arizona 71-57. RPI: Colorado 77, Arizona 84. Analysis: How does the Pac-12 deserve more than one team? Anyway, this one is a toss-up. Pick: Arizona 63, Colorado 58.

SOUTHLAND FINAL: AT KATY, TEXAS

(3) Lamar (22-11, 11-5) vs. (4) McNeese State (17-14, 10-6)

Tipoff: 3 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 11 – McNeese 57-54; March 3 – Lamar 78-68. RPI: Lamar 118, McNeese 177. Analysis: Did you see what the Cowboys did to the UTA, which dominated the league all season? Take the points. Line: Lamar -5½. Pick: McNeese State 71, Lamar 69.

SWAC FINAL: AT GARLAND, TEXAS

(1) Mississippi Valley State (20-12, 17-1) vs. (2) Texas Southern (17-14, 13-5)

Tipoff: 8 p.m. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 23 – MVSU 77-69 (OT)*; Feb. 20 – MVSU 56-53. RPI: MVSU 153, Texas Southern 231. Analysis: Valley wins, but the Tigers cover. Pick: Mississippi Valley State 60, Texas Southern 59.

WAC FINAL: AT LAS VEGAS

(2) New Mexico State (25-9, 10-4) vs. (5) Louisiana Tech (18-15, 6-8)

Tipoff: Midnight. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 7 – NMSU 83-73*; Feb. 4 – NMSU 83-72. RPI: New Mexico State 69, Louisiana Tech 170. Analysis: Been saying all year that the Aggies would win this tournament. Nevada’s elimination only solidifies that. Pick: New Mexico State 84, Louisiana Tech 72.

Friday Conference Tournament Predictions

Greg Mengelt — Fri, 09 Mar 2012 11:15:17 -0800

Our g ame prediction guru Greg Mengelt has been on fire this year. He'll be picking every remaining conference tournament including today's loaded schedule. Games listed in order with later rounds on top and earlier rounds at the bottom. Read more about Championship Week at CollegeHoops.net.

BIG 12 SEMIFINALS: AT KANSAS CITY

(1) Kansas (27-5, 16-2) vs. (4) Baylor (26-6, 12-6)

Tipoff: 7:30 p.m. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 16 – Baylor 92-74; Feb. 8 – 68-54*. RPI: Kansas 6, Baylor 9. Analysis: Beating a team three times in a season isn’t that difficult. Beating a team three times with as much talent as the Bears have – that is. Line: Kansas -5½. Pick: Baylor 72, Kansas 67.

(2) Missouri (28-4, 14-4) vs. (6) Texas (20-12, 9-9)

Tipoff: 10 p.m. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 14 – Missouri 84-73; Jan. 30 – Missouri 67-66*. RPI: Missouri 16, Texas 58. Analysis: Missouri has come to play in the Big 12 tourney. Pick: Missouri 80, Texas 65.

BIG EAST SEMIFINALS: AT NEW YORK CITY

(1) Syracuse (31-1, 17-1) vs. (4) Cincinnati (23-9, 12-6)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 23 – Syracuse 60-53*. RPI: Syracuse 1, Cincinnati 69. Analysis: Was all set to take Cincinnati. Then double-overtime happened. Expect a more impressive performance from the Orange today. Line: Syracuse -7 ½. Pick: Syracuse 63, Cincinnati 52.

(3) Notre Dame (22-10, 13-5) vs. (7) Louisville (24-9, 10-8)

Tipoff: 9 p.m. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 7 – Notre Dame 67-65 (2OT). RPI: Louisville 21, Notre Dame 38. Analysis: Louisville’s offense was better Thursday and its defense will give the Irish fits. Pick: Louisville 59, Notre Dame 51.

BIG WEST SEMIFINALS: AT ANAHEIM

(3) Cal-Santa Barbara (19-9, 12-4) vs. (7) Cal-Irvine (12-19, 6-10)

Tipoff: 9:30 p.m. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 14 – UCSB 74-56; Feb. 15 – UCSB 85-62. RPI: UCSB 127, UCI 270. Analysis: It looks like Santa Barbara and Long Beach are on a crash course again. Pick: Cal-Santa Barbara 74, Cal-Irvine 51.

(1) Long Beach State (23-8, 15-1) vs. (4) Cal Poly (18-14, 8-8)

Tipoff: Midnight. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 5 – LBSU 55-50; Jan. 19 – LBSU 78-69. RPI: LBSU 35, Cal Poly 226. Analysis: Long Beach will win this tournament, but the Mustangs are undervalued and will cover Friday. Pick: Long Beach State 67, Cal Poly 59.

CONFERENCE USA SEMINFINALS: AT MEMPHIS

(2) Southern Mississippi (25-7, 11-5) vs. (6) Marshall (20-12, 9-7)

Tipoff: 4 p.m. TV: CBS Sports Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 21 – Southern Miss 67-63; March 3 – Marshall 79-75. RPI: Southern Miss 17, Marshall 56. Analysis: Southern Miss got a huge break after the Herd played double-overtime Thursday and will now have to play for a third straight day. Pick: Southern Mississippi 65, Marshall 54.

(1) Memphis (20-12, 9-7) vs. (4) Central Florida (22-9, 10-6)

Tipoff: 6:30 p.m. TV: CBS Sports Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 18 – Central Florida 68-67; Feb. 28 – Memphis 84-55. RPI: Memphis 18, UCF 61. Analysis: The Knights do a lot well. Upsetting the Tigers in Memphis will be tough, but they should cover. Pick: Memphis 75, Central Florida 72.

MAC SEMIFINALS: AT CLEVELAND

(1) Akron (21-10, 13-3) vs. (4) Kent State (20-10, 10-6)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. TV: STO. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 21 – Akron 84-75; March 2 – Akron 61-55*. RPI: Akron 62, Kent State 105. Analysis: Akron goes 3-for-3 against its rival. Pick: Akron 70, Kent State 63.

(2) Buffalo (19-9, 12-4) vs. (3) Ohio (24-7, 11-5)

Tipoff: 9:30 p.m. TV: STO. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 11 – Ohio 60-52; Feb. 22 – Ohio 88-77*. RPI: Ohio 70, Buffalo 76. Analysis: The Bobcats are the class of the MAC and they’ll prove it Friday. Pick: Ohio 73, Kent State 63.

MEAC SEMIFINALS: AT WINSTON-SALEM, N.C.

(8) Hampton (12-20, 6-10) vs. (4) Bethune-Cookman (17-16, 11-5)

Tipoff: 6 p.m. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 27 – Bethune-Cookman 74-64. RPI: Hampton 305, Bethune-Cookman 254. Analysis: Haven’t seen either team. Grain of salt here. Pick: Bethune-Cookman 71, Hampton 67.

(2) Norfolk State (23-9, 13-3) vs. (11) Florida A&M (10-22, 6-10)

Tipoff: 8 p.m. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 27 – Norfolk State 79-70*. RPI: Norfolk State 133, Florida A&M 324. Analysis: Norfolk State led the MEAC all season before being passed by Savannah State late for the regular-season league title. The Spartans are not going to let another opportunity slip away. Pick: Norfolk State 80, Florida A&M 62.

MOUNTAIN WEST SEMIFINALS: AT LAS VEGAS

(1) San Diego State (25-6, 10-4) vs. (4) Colorado State (19-10, 8-6)

Tipoff: 9 p.m. TV: CBS Sports Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 28 – Colorado State 77-60; Feb. 25 – San Diego State 74-66. RPI: San Diego State 26, Colorado State 19. Analysis: The Rams may be the better team overall. Pick: Colorado State 75, San Diego State 71.

(2) New Mexico (25-6, 10-4) vs. (3) UNLV (25-7, 9-5)

Tipoff: 11:30 p.m. TV: CBS Sports Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 21 – UNLV 80-63; Feb. 18 – New Mexico 65-45. RPI: UNLV 14, New Mexico 35. Analysis: Both teams looked really good on Thursday. The homecourt advantage should be the difference. Pick: UNLV 71, New Mexico 67.

PAC-12 SEMIFINALS: AT LOS ANGELES

(4) Arizona (22-10, 12-6) vs. (9) Oregon State (19-13, 7-11)

Tipoff: 9:10 p.m. TV: Fox Sports Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 12 – Arizona 81-73 (OT). RPI: Arizona 85, Oregon State 140. Analysis: The Beavers are due for a sub-par performance. Pick: Arizona 68, Oregon State 59.

(2) California (24-8, 13-5) vs. (6) Colorado (21-11, 11-7)

Tipoff: 11:40 p.m. TV: Fox Sports Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 12 – Cal 57-50; Feb. 26 – Colorado 70-57. RPI: Cal 34, Colorado 86. Analysis: Calling another Pac-12 tournament upset. Pick: Colorado 67, Cal 62.

SWAC SEMIFINALS: AT GARLAND, TEXAS

(2) Texas Southern (14-17, 12-6) vs. (6) Alcorn State (10-21, 6-12)

Tipoff: 1:30 p.m. TV: SWAC TV. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 3 – Texas Southern 87-52; March 1 – Texas Southern 56-54*. RPI: Texas Southern 239, Alcorn State 339. Analysis: Alcorn looks like a different team in the second half of the season. Pick: Texas Southern 70, Alcorn State 65.

(1) Mississippi Valley State (19-12, 17-1) vs. (5) Arkansas-Pine Bluff (11-21, 9-9)

Tipoff: 9 p.m. TV: SWAC TV. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 3 – MVSU 82-67; March 1 – MVSU 78-67. RPI: MVSU 154, UAPB 309. Analysis: The Delta Devils better be careful. This one has upset possibilities. Pick: Mississippi Valley State 66, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 64.

WAC SEMINFINALS: AT LAS VEGAS

(2) New Mexico State (24-9, 10-4) vs. (6) Hawaii (16-15, 6-8)

Tipoff: 9 p.m. TV: WSN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 22 – Hawaii 91-87; Feb. 23 – New Mexico State 115-73. RPI: New Mexico State 67, Hawaii 217. Analysis: These two teams have scored nearly 400 combined points in two games this season. Should be fun. Should be close. Pick: New Mexico State 81, Hawaii 78.

(1) Nevada (26-5, 13-1) vs. (5) Louisiana Tech (17-15, 6-8)

Tipoff: 11:30 p.m. TV: WSN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 28 – Nevada 65-63*; March 3 – Nevada 79-69. RPI: Nevada 45, Louisiana Tech 177. Analysis: Tech played the Pack well both times season. Why should Friday be different? Pick: Nevada 64, Louisiana Tech 63.

ACC QUARTERFINALS: AT ATLANTA

(1) North Carolina (27-4, 14-2) vs. (8) Maryland (17-14, 6-10)

Tipoff: Noon. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 4 – North Carolina 83-74*; Feb. 29 – North Carolina 88-70. RPI: UNC 3, Maryland 110. Analysis: No contest. Line: North Carolina -15½. Pick: North Carolina 78, Maryland 53.

(4) Virginia (22-8, 9-7) vs. (5) North Carolina State (21-11, 9-7)

Tipoff: 2 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 28 – Virginia 61-60*. RPI: Virginia 43, NC State 53. Analysis: The Pack wins it outright. Line: Virginia -2½. Pick: North Carolina State 66, Virginia 60.

(2) Duke (26-5, 13-3) vs. (10) Virginia Tech (16-16, 4-12)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 2 – Duke 75-60*; Feb. 25 – Duke 70-65 (OT). RPI: Duke 4, Virginia Tech 119. Analysis: Duke needed overtime to beat the Hokies last time. They’ll challenge the Blue Devils again. Pick: Duke 68, Virginia Tech 63.

(3) Florida State (21-9, 12-4) vs. (6) Miami (19-11, 9-7)

Tipoff: 9 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 11 – Florida State 64-59; Feb. 26 – Miami 78-62. RPI: FSU 20, Miami 49. Analysis: The Hurricanes probably have the better talent – at least offensively – and they’ll solve the Seminole D enough to get the win. Pick: Miami 61, Florida State 58.

ATLANTIC 10 QUARTERFINALS: AT ATLANTIC CITY

(1) Temple (24-6, 13-3) vs. (8) Massachusetts (21-10, 9-7)

Tipoff: Noon. TV: CBS Sports Network. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 29 – Temple 90-88 (OT). RPI: Temple 12, UMass 80. Analysis: Expected the Owls to win by eight or more points is a lot to ask in what should be a low-scoring game. Line: Temple -7½ . Pick: Temple 60, Massachusetts 55.

(4) St. Bonaventure (17-11, 10-6) vs. (5) Saint Joseph’s (20-12, 9-7)

Tipoff: 2:30 p.m. TV: CBS Sports Network. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 29 – St. Bonaventure 98-93 (2OT). RPI: St. Bonaventure 91, Saint Joseph’s 52. Analysis: Andrew Nicholson will be the best player on the floor, but the Hawks are the better team. Line: Saint Joseph’s -1. Pick: Saint Joseph’s 68, St. Bonaventure 62.

(2) Saint Louis (24-6, 12-4) vs. (7) LaSalle (21-11, 9-7)

Tipoff: 6:30 p.m. TV: CBS Sports Network. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 11 – Saint Louis 59-51*. RPI: SLU 30, LaSalle 78. Analysis: The Billikens have been up-and-down, but you have to believe they’ll enter Atlantic City ready to roll. Line: Saint Louis -6. Pick: Saint Louis 63, LaSalle 52.

(3) Xavier (19-11, 10-6) vs. (6) Dayton (20-11, 9-7)

Tipoff: 9 p.m. TV: CBS Sports Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 21 – Dayton 87-72; Feb. 18 – Xavier 86-83 (OT). RPI: Xavier 56, Dayton 73. Analysis: Kevin Dillard will not let the Flyers lose. Line: Xavier -2. Pick: Dayton 73, Xavier 70.

BIG TEN QUARTRFINALS: AT INDIANAPOLIS

(1) Michigan State (24-7, 13-5) vs. (8) Iowa (17-15, 8-10)

Tipoff: Noon. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 10 – Michigan State 95-61. RPI: Michigan State 5, Iowa 133. Analysis: Avoid betting this line. If you insist on taking the bait, go with Sparty. Line: Michigan State -11. Pick: Michigan State 73, Iowa 61.

(4) Wisconsin (23-8, 12-6) vs. (5) Indiana (25-7, 11-7)

Tipoff: 2:25 p.m. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 26 – Wisconsin 57-50. RPI: Indiana 12, Wisconsin 22. Analysis: The loss of Verdell Jones – Indiana’s heart and soul – will hurt, but it won’t keep the Hoosiers from rolling to the semis. Line: Indiana -1½. Pick: Indiana 65, Wisconsin 58.

(2) Michigan (23-8, 13-5) vs. (10) Minnesota (19-13, 6-12)

Tipoff: 6:30 p.m. TV: Big Ten Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 1 – Michigan 61-56. RPI: Michigan 13, Minnesota 89. Analysis: The Gophers may not pull off another upset, but it’s doubtful that the Wolverines will cover. Pick: Michigan 58, Minnesota 55.

(3) Ohio State (25-6, 13-5) vs. (6) Purdue (21-11, 10-8)

Tipoff: 8:55 p.m. TV: Big Ten Network. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 7 – Ohio State 87-84. RPI: Ohio State 8, Purdue 40. Analysis: Purdue’s near-win at Columbus in early February set off a really good stretch for the Boilermakers. Pick: Ohio State 79, Purdue 76.

SEC QUARTERFINALS: AT NEW ORLEANS

(1) Kentucky (30-1, 16-0) vs. (8) LSU (18-13, 7-9)

Tipoff: 1 p.m. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 28 – Kentucky 74-50*. RPI: Kentucky 2, LSU 89. Analysis: Probably would avoid betting this one with the Tigers getting so many points, but there aren’t enough points to actually bet LSU. Line: Kentucky -16½. Pick: Kentucky 71, LSU 54.

(4) Florida (22-9, 10-6) vs. (5) Alabama (21-10, 9-7)

Tipoff: 3:30 p.m. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 14 – Florida 61-52*. RPI: Florida 28, Alabama 32. Analysis: It’s hard to take the Tide the way they’re playing. Pick: Florida 78, Alabama 61.

(2) Tennessee (18-13, 10-6) vs. (7) Mississippi (19-12, 8-8)

Tipoff: 7:30 p.m. TV: SEC Network. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 22 – Tennessee 73-60. RPI: Tennessee 74, Mississippi 51. Analysis: Tennessee is playing as well as anyone in the SEC (No. 1 Kentucky excepted) and could get to the title game. Pick: Tennessee 72, Mississippi 63.

(3) Vanderbilt (21-10, 10-6) vs. (11) Georgia (15-16, 5-11)

Tipoff: 10 p.m. TV: SEC Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan 14 – Vandy 77-66; Feb. 19 – Vandy 61-52. RPI: Vanderbilt 27, Georgia 108. Analysis: Another line that’s too close to play. Avoid it. Maybe take the over. Pick: Vanderbilt 82, Georgia 70.

*Road win

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 162-127-3

Friday's Conference Tournament Primer

Raphielle Johnson — Fri, 09 Mar 2012 07:25:01 -0800

ACC - Quarterfinals
#1 North Carolina vs. #8 Maryland, Noon (ESPN2/ACC Network)
#4 Virginia vs. #5 NC State, 2:00 p.m. (ESPN2/ACC Network)
#2 Duke vs. #10 Virginia Tech, 7:00 p.m. (ESPN2/ACC Network)
#3 Florida State vs. #6 Miami, 9:00 p.m. (ESPN2/ACC Network)

After wins on Thursday both NC State and Miami have shots at quality wins on Friday, and should both accomplish that the ACC may be able to grab six NCAA tournament bids. The Wolfpack take on Virginia, and with the lone regular season meeting decided by a single point (61-60 Virginia win on January 28th) this should be a close contest.

Tony Bennett's team has been banged up for much of the season and with freshman Malcolm Brogdon being ruled out for the season the Cavaliers are essentially down to six players in their rotation. But the most important one is still on the floor, as Mike Scott has been one of the best players in the ACC all season long.

The key for Virginia is getting consistent production from guard Sammy Zeglinski, because when he's shooting it well the Cavaliers are tougher to slow down. Tony Bennett's pack line defense can frustrate teams, so the Pack have to be smart in not settling for too many perimeter shots. C.J. Leslie scored 17 points in the first meeting and Richard Howell put up 11 and 18 rebounds, and as a team NC State out-rebounded Virginia 42-25 in Raleigh.

But they shot 2-for-15 from three and just 12-for-21 from the foul line, thus negating that edge on the glass. The Wolfpack may average 15 three-point attempts per game and if a decent chunk of those are taken by Scott Wood that's fine. But they can't fall in love with the shot as that's what Virginia wants teams to do. Work the ball inside and take advantage of their depth, and NC State likely wins.

As for Miami, the Hurricanes and Seminoles split the regular season series with the home team winning both meetings. Jim Larranaga's team won in Coral Gables with Reggie Johnson sitting due to an NCAA issue, with Miami shooting 61% from the field and scoring 54 points in the second half of the 78-62 win. And the Hurricanes got it done with offensive balance, as four players finished in double figures.

If they can be balanced, with Johnson and Kenny Kadji inside and guards Malcolm Grant, Shane Larkin and Durand Scott producing on the perimeter, Miami can pose problems for one of the ACC's best defensive teams. Florida State has to take care of the basketball, not just for tonight but also for the remainder of the season if they're to make any kind of noise.

Leonard Hamilton's team turns the ball over on 24% of their possessions, which is not part of the formula for winning in March. Luke Loucks and Ian Miller have to perform better in this area if the Seminoles are to hang around, because despite FSU's ability on the defensive end that can be nullified if they're giving away too many possessions.

Of course North Carolina and Duke can't be forgotten but both take on teams who aren't going to the Big Dance unless they win the ACC tournament. Maryland's a young team led by Terrell Stoglin, whose shot selection at times leaves much to be desired, and if the Terps are hot they can hang around with UNC. But don't expect that to happen, and while Virginia Tech tends to play Duke tough they likely don't have the horses even with Duke's Ryan Kelly missing the tournament with a foot injury.

Atlantic 10 - Quarterfinals
#1 Temple vs. #8 Massachusetts, 12:00pm (CBS SN syndicated)
#4 St. Bonaventure vs. #5 Saint Joseph's, 2:30pm (CBS SN syndicated)
#2 Saint Louis vs. #7 La Salle, 6:30pm (CBS SN syndicated)
#3 Xavier vs. #6 Dayton, 9:00pm (CBS SN syndicated)

In the final game of the night in Atlantic City, Xavier and Dayton are essentially playing for a trip to the NCAA tournament. Not sure if there's any other way to describe the game between the two rivals, which should make for a heated battle at Boardwalk Hall. Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons still haven't played their best basketball, and what better time to get going than right now? Dayton's led by point guard Kevin Dillard and they've got some good players on the wings, led by senior Chris Johnson.

Saint Joseph's can also work their way into the bubble chatter, and clearly getting to the semis with a win over St. Bonaventure would be a good start. The battle between C.J. Aiken and A-10 Player of the Year Andrew Nicholson will have a lot to say about the outcome, but the Bonnies will need to slow down guard Carl Jones as well. Temple and Saint Louis are well on their way to the Big Dance, but a loss today could have a negative impact from a seeding standpoint.

Big 12 - Semifinals
#4 Baylor vs. #1 Kansas, 7:30 p.m. (ESPNU)
#2 Missouri vs. #6 Texas, 10:00 p.m. (ESPNU)

While the buzz may be the fact that we're one win apiece away from a third meeting between Missouri and Kansas, the truth of the matter is that both have business to attend to tonight. The Jayhawks take on a Baylor team they beat decisively in both regular season meetings, with Thomas Robinson doing what he does and Jeff Withey absolutely killing the Bears inside. Baylor will need Perry Jones III to come out with the same aggression he did in Thursday's win over Kansas State, putting up 31 points and 11 boards.

The second game matches Missouri and six-seed Texas, who played well in the second half of their win over Iowa State on Thursday. It will be important for J'Covan Brown and Myck Kabongo to play well for the Longhorns, but if anything they're going to need Clint Chapman and the rest of their big men to go to work on the glass. It won't hurt to get Ricardo Ratliffe in foul trouble either but that can be easier said than done. Marcus Denmon, Phil Pressey and Kim English lead the way for the Tigers, who could still be in the discussion for a one-seed.

Big East - Semifinals
#1 Syracuse vs. #4 Cincinnati, 7:00 p.m. (ESPN)
#7 Louisville vs. #3 Notre Dame, 9:00 p.m. (ESPN)

Louisville is the lone team not in the top four to reach the Big East semifinals, as they jumped Marquette early and hung on to beat the Golden Eagles on Thursday night. They take on Notre Dame, who survived a comedy of errors down the stretch in their overtime win over USF. The key for the Cardinals will be to achieve a near-chaotic tempo within possessions against the Irish, who are extemely difficult to speed up. That game follows Syracuse and Cincinnati, with the Bearcats in position to help themselves out in the seeding department with a win. But beating the Orange is tough anywhere, much less in the Garden. Who steps up for Syracuse tonight? To have as many answers as they do is a nice luxury to have, but if Yancy Gates and Cashmere Wright play well the Bearcats can win.

Big Ten - Quarterfinals
#1 Michigan State vs. #8 Iowa, Noon (ESPN)
#4 Wisconsin vs. #5 Indiana, 2:25 p.m. (ESPN)
#2 Michigan vs. #10 Minnesota, 6:30 p.m. (BTN)
#3 Ohio State vs. #6 Purdue, 8:55 p.m. (BTN)

With Northwestern going down the bubble suspense has likely left the Big Ten tournament, unless either Iowa or Minnesota can get hot and get to Sunday's final. They take on the top two seeds in the event, and while Michigan State and Michigan won shares of the regular season title (along with Ohio State) they can be beat. The 4/5 matchup is the one to watch, not only because of how evenly matched Wisconsin and Indiana are but also because of the fact that this will be the first game for IU without Verdell Jones III, who tore his ACL on Thursday. This will be a good test for Tom Crean's team in that regard, because while they're deep enough rotation-wise to lose an important senior at this point in the year does require some adjusting.

Big West - Semifinals
#1 Long Beach State vs. #7 UC Irvine, 9:30 p.m. (ESPNU)
#3 UCSB vs. #4 Cal Poly, Midnight (ESPNU)

Top-seed Long Beach State, who is without their best defender (Larry Anderson) this weekend due to injury, received a nice break as UC Irvine knocked off two-seed Cal State Fullerton on Thursday night. With the Big West re-seeding its teams after the quarterfinals the 49ers take on the Anteaters, and while Russell Turner's team isn't to be underestimated this is a better semifinal matchup for Casper Ware and company than a battle with Cal Poly would have been. The Mustangs take on UCSB, who has won the last two conference tournament titles and with Orlando Johnson leading the way a third is not out of the realm of possibility. If the Gauchos have James Nunnally going as well look out.

Conference USA - Semifinals
#2 Southern Miss vs. #6 Marshall, 4:00 p.m. (CBS SN)
#1 Memphis vs. #4 UCF, 6:30 p.m. (CBS SN)

With Memphis safely in the NCAA tournament field the question for Conference USA is whether or not another team can pop up and earn a bid. That chatter focuses on Southern Miss, who likely wrapped up a spot with their escape against ECU. Larry Eustachy's team has an impressive set of computer numbers, so that likely means two bids for C-USA, but if DeAndre Kane can go off for 40 as he did in Marshall's win over Tulsa the Thundering Herd can earn a trip to the title game. Opposing Memphis is UCF, who likely needs to win the tournament if they're to go dancing, but with Keith Clanton leading the way they don't lack for talent either.

Great West - Semifinals
#4 NJIT vs. #1 Utah Valley, 1:00 p.m.
#3 Texas-Pan American vs. #2 North Dakota, 3:30 p.m.

MAC - Semifinals
#4 Kent State vs. # 1 Akron, 7:00 p.m. (STO)
#3 Ohio vs. # 2 Buffalo, 9:30 p.m. (STO)

The top four seeds in the MAC all hail from the East Division, and it should come as no surprise that these four meet in the semis. The question now is who has enough left to grab two wins and the league's automatic bid. The conversation has to start with regular season champion Akron, who won the tournament last season and in Zeke Marshall have a big man who can change games with his shot-blocking ability. Two-seed Buffalo counters with forwards Javon McCrea and Mitchell Watt, two very good players who will be a handful for Ohio tonight. The Bobcats have the league's best point guard in D.J. Cooper, and Kent State has three players averaging double figures with forward Justin Greene leading the way. Thursday may have gone according to plan with Ohio and Kent State moving on, and it wouldn't be a surprise if those two won again tonight.

MEAC - Semifinals
#8 Hampton vs. #4 Bethune-Cookman, 6:00 p.m.
#2 Norfolk State vs. #11 Florida A&M, 8:00 p.m.

Mountain West - Semifinals
#1 San Diego State vs. #4 Colorado State, 9:00 p.m. (CBS SN)
#2 New Mexico vs. #3 UNLV, 11:30 p.m. (CBS SN)

The two semifinals in Las Vegas promise to be entertaining affairs with both being regular season splits. San Diego State didn't look their best against a young Boise State team that's going to be good in years to come, and Jamaal Franklin and the rest of the Aztecs have to sharpen things up if they're to beat the Rams. Colorado State looked impressive in their win over TCU, and with Wes Eikmeier and Dorian Green leading the way Tim Miles' crew definitely has a shot at the tournament crown. In game two how UNLV defends Drew Gordon will go a long way in determining the outcome, as they were unable to slow him down in the second half of their loss in Albuquerque last month. Mike Moser also struggled in that game, and if he can get going early the Runnin' Rebels can take advantage of their home floor.

Pac-12 - Semifinals
#9 Oregon State vs. #4 Arizona, 9:10 p.m. (FSN)
#2 California vs. #6 Colorado, 11:40 p.m. (FSN)

Who wants an NCAA tournament bid? That's the question in Los Angeles as California is likely the only team secure with their prospects. Arizona has to beat Oregon State if they're to go dancing, but the same could have been true even if Washington were their opposition since the Huskies swept the regular season series from the Wildcats. Colorado and Oregon State know at this point that they'll have to win the automatic bid, and both are capable of doing just that. There's an awful lot on the line at Staples Center, truthfully more than many would expect to be in the semifinals of a BCS AQ conference tournament.

SEC - Quarterfinals
#8 LSU vs. #1 Kentucky, 1:00 p.m. (SEC Network)
#5 Alabama vs. #4 Florida, 3:30 p.m. (SEC Network)
#7 Ole Miss vs. #2 Tennessee, 7:30 p.m. (SEC Network)
#11 Georgia vs. #3 Vanderbilt, 10:00 p.m. (SEC Network)

Ole Miss/Tennessee is the game to watch from a bubble standpoint as both teams need wins, and with a number of bubble team across the country faltering of late either one can step up and earn a bid. Jarnell Stokes has helped change the prospects for the Volunteers, who with his addition had two tough players inside who give opponents fits (Jeronne Maymon). The Rebels will need Terrence Henry to play well again if they're to advance, and Murphy Holloway has played well for much of the season too. The other three games seem to be straightforward with Kentucky already having a one-seed in the NCAA tournament and Vanderbilt, Florida and Alabama all headed to the Big Dance as well.

SWAC- Semifinals
#2 Texas Southern vs. #6 Alcorn State, 1:30 p.m. (SWAC TV)
#1 Mississippi Valley State vs. #5 UAPB, 9:00 p.m. (SWAC TV)

WAC - Semifinals
#6 Hawai'i vs. #2 New Mexico State, 9:00 p.m. (WSN)
#5 Louisiana Tech vs. #1 Nevada, 11:30 p.m. (WSN)

Quarterfinals Predictions: Big 12, Big East, CUSA, MAC, MWC, Pac-12

Greg Mengelt — Thu, 08 Mar 2012 08:06:26 -0800

Our g ame prediction guru Greg Mengelt has been on fire this year. He'll be picking (just about) every conference tournament game over the next week, including tonight's three key championship games. Games listed in order with later rounds on top and earlier rounds at the bottom. Read more about Championship Week at CollegeHoops.net.

BIG EAST QUARTERFINALS: AT NEW YORK CITY

(1) Syracuse (30-1, 17-1) vs. (9) Connecticut (20-12, 8-10)

Tipoff: Noon. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 11 – Syracuse 85-67; Feb. 25 – Syracuse 71-69. RPI: Syracuse 1, UConn 33. Analysis: Can’t see any way this one doesn’t get out of hand early. Line: Syracuse -7. Pick: Syracuse 84, Connecticut 67.

(4) Cincinnati (22-9, 12-6) vs. (5) Georgetown (23-7, 23-7)

Tipoff: 2 p.m. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 9 – Cincinnati 68-64*. RPI: Cincinnati 67, Georgetown 9. Analysis: The advantage always goes to a team with one game under its belt in a conference tournament. Line: Georgetown -3. Pick: Georgetown 67, Cincinnati 60.

(2) Marquette (25-6, 14-4) vs. (7) Louisville (22-9, 10-8)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 16 – Marquette 74-63. RPI: Marquette 7, Louisville 21. Analysis: Marquette's defense will be the difference. Pick: Marquette 63, Louisville 53.

(3) Notre Dame (21-10, 13-5) vs. (6) South Florida (19-12, 12-6)

Tipoff: 9 p.m. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 10 – Notre Dame 60-49. RPI: Notre Dame 38, South Florida 39. Analysis: South Florida needs a win and it will get one. This Irish will find points tough to come by. Pick: South Florida 57, Notre Dame 52.

BIG 12 QUARTERFINALS: AT KANSAS CITY

(4) Baylor (25-6, 12-6) vs. (5) Kansas State (21-9, 10-8)

Tipoff: 12:30 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 10 – Baylor 75-73*; Feb. 18 – Kansas State 57-56. RPI: Baylor 10, Kansas State 40. Analysis: The Bears are just too skilled to lose to Kansas State twice. Line: Baylor -2. Pick: Baylor 69, Kansas State 64.

(1) Kansas (26-5, 16-2) vs. (9) Texas A&M (13-17, 4-14)

Tipoff: 3 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 23 – Kansas 64-54; Feb. 22 – Kansas 66-58. RPI: Kansas 6, Texas A&M 168. Analysis: Despite a lackluster effort this season, the Aggies have a lot of talent and they’ll fight. Pick: Kansas 67, Texas A&M 62.

(2) Missouri (27-4, 14-4) vs. (7) Oklahoma State (14-17, 7-11)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. TV: Big 12 Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 25 – Oklahoma State 79-72; Feb. 15 – Missouri 83-65. RPI: Missouri 16, Oklahoma State 120. Analysis: The Tigers will use the their home crowd advantage – and hot shooting – to drub OK State. Pick: Missouri 82, Oklahoma State 66.

(3) Iowa State (22-9, 12-6) vs. (6) Texas (19-12, 9-9)

Tipoff: 9:30 p.m. TV: Big 12 Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 4 – Iowa State 77-71; Jan. 24 – Texas 62-55. RPI: Iowa State 29, Texas 57. Analysis: Iowa State. No, Texas. No, Iowa State. No, Texas. Line: Texas -1. Pick: Texas 72, Iowa State 70.

CONFERENCE USA QUARTERFINALS: AT MEMPHIS

(2) Southern Mississippi (24-7, 11-5) vs. (10) East Carolina (15-15, 5-11)

Tipoff: 1 p.m. TV: CBS Sports Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 4 – Southern Miss 78-76; Jan. 25 – Southern Miss 72-60. RPI: Southern Miss 17, ECU 162. Analysis: Southern Miss is one of the most fascinating NCAA cases in a long time. The Eagles will put any doubt to rest with a big win. Pick: Southern Mississippi 81, East Carolina 60.

(3) Tulsa (17-13, 10-6) vs. (6) Marshall (19-12, 9-7)

Tipoff: 3:30 p.m. TV: CBS Sports Network. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 4 – Tulsa 79-70. RPI: Tulsa 113, Marshall 57. Analysis: Marshall will win with defense and rebounding. Pick: Marshall 66, Tulsa 57.

(1) Memphis (23-8, 13-3) vs. (8) Texas-El Paso (14-16, 7-9)

Tipoff: 7:30 p.m. TV: CBS Sports Network. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 18 – UTEP 60-58*. RPI: Memphis 18, UTEP 145. Analysis: The Tigers’ loss to UTEP was their only bad loss in February. It wasn’t a fluke. The minors will keep it low-scoring and close. Pick: Memphis 63, Texas-El Paso 59.

(4) Central Florida (21-9, 10-6) vs. (5) Alabama-Birmingham (14-15, 9-7)

Tipoff: 10 p.m. TV: CBS Sports Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 21 – Central Florida 48-41*; March 3 – Central Florida 71-63. RPI: UCF 61, UAB 111. Analysis: The Knights have too much firepower. Pick: Central Florida 69, Alabama-Birmingham 54.

MAC QUARTERFINALS: AT CLEVELAND

(4) Kent State (20-10, 10-6) vs. (8) Western Michigan (13-19, 6-10)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. TV: STO. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 4 – Kent State 78-73 (OT). RPI: Kent State 104, Western Michigan 201. Analysis: It appears that the Broncos are finally starting to play like the team that was expected to win their division this season. They may even win this game against inconsistent Kent. Pick: Kent State 68, Western Michigan 65.

(3) Ohio (24-7, 11-5) vs. (7) Toledo (17-15, 7-9)

Tipoff: 9:30 p.m. TV: STO. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 8 – Toledo 77-73. RPI: Ohio 70, Toledo 247. Analysis: Ohio is poised for a deep run – and possibly a championship – in the MAC Tournament. Pick: Ohio 71, Toledo 60.

MOUNTAIN WEST QUARTERFINALS: AT LAS VEGAS

(1) San Diego State (24-6, 10-4) vs. (8) Boise State (13-16, 3-11)

Tipoff: 3 p.m. TV: The Mtn. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 1 – San Diego State 58-56; Feb. 29 – San Diego State 66-53*. RPI: San Diego State 26, Boise State 165. Analysis: San Diego State went through a bit of a lull, but the Aztecs appear to be back. Line: San Diego State -6. Pick: San Diego State 69, Boise State 58.

(4) Colorado State (19-10, 8-6) vs. (5) Texas Christian (17-13, 7-7)

Tipoff: 5:30 p.m. TV: CBS Sports Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan 14 – Colorado State 95-89 (2OT); Feb. 11 – TCU 75-71. RPI: Colorado State 19, TCU 101. Analysis: This one really could go either way, but the Rams are on the bubble and desperate for a big win. Line: Colorado State -3½. Pick: Colorado State 72, Texas Christian 68.

(2) New Mexico (24-6, 10-4) vs. (7) Air Force (13-15, 3-11)

Tipoff: 9 p.m. TV: The Mtn. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 31 – New Mexico 81-42*; Feb. 29 – New Mexico 86-56. RPI: New Mexico 34, Air Force 169. Analysis: Interesting. New Mexico has dominated the season series, but 14½ in the first round? That’s a tough task with all of the different variables. Line: New Mexico -14½. Pick: New Mexico 79, Air Force 67.

(3) UNLV (25-7, 9-5) vs. (6) Wyoming (20-10, 6-8)

Tipoff: 11:30 p.m. TV: CBS Sports Network. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 4 – Wyoming 68-66; March 3 – UNLV 74-63. RPI: UNLV 14, Wyoming 82. Analysis: The Rebels will not win by double-digits. Line: UNLV -10½. Pick: UNLV 67, Wyoming 60.

PAC-12 QUARTERFINALS: AT LOS ANGELES

(1) Washington (21-9, 14-4) vs. (9) Oregon State (19-13, 7-11)

Tipoff: 3:10 p.m. TV: FSN. Regular-season meetings: Dec. 29 – Washington 95-80; Feb. 12 – Washington 75-72*. RPI: Washington 59, Oregon State 146. Analysis: This game will be played with an up-and-down pace, and the Huskies have too many horses. Pick: Washington 88, Oregon State 68.

(4) Arizona (21-10, 12-6) vs. (5) UCLA (19-13, 11-7)

Tipoff: 5:40 p.m. TV: FSN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 5 – UCLA 65-58; Feb. 25 – Arizona 65-63. RPI: Arizona 85, UCLA 109. Analysis: UCLA is playing its best basketball. The Bruins would likely have won this game even before Josiah Turner’s suspension. Pick: UCLA 65, Arizona 59.

(2) California (23-8, 13-5) vs. (7) Stanford (21-10, 10-8)

Tipoff: 9:10 p.m. TV: FSN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 29 – Cal 69-59; March 4 – Stanford 75-70. RPI: Cal 37, Stanford 94. Analysis: Stanford will keep this close and could pull the upset. Pick: Cal 71, Stanford 69.

(3) Oregon (22-8, 13-5) vs. (6) Colorado (20-11, 11-7)

Tipoff: 11:40 p.m. TV: FSN. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 4 – Colorado 72-71; March 1 – Oregon 90-81. RPI: Oregon 54, Colorado 83. Analysis: Both regular-season matchups were close. This one won’t be. Pick: Oregon 68, Colorado 56.

WAC QUARTERFINALS: AT LAS VEGAS

(3) Idaho (18-12, 9-5) vs. (6) Hawaii (15-15, 6-8)

Tipoff: 3 p.m. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 28 – Idaho 76-70; March 2 – Idaho 82-63. RPI: Idaho 139, Hawaii 207. Analysis: Love the Rainbows in this one – at least to keep it close. Line: Idaho -5. Pick: Idaho 68, Hawaii 66.

(2) New Mexico State (23-9, 10-4) vs. (7) Fresno State (13-19, 3-11)

Tipoff: 5:30 p.m. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 28 – New Mexico State 60-56; March 3 – New Mexico State 83-78 (OT). RPI: New Mexico State 34, Fresno State 224. Analysis: The Aggies have the talent to win this thing. Line: New Mexico State -7. Pick: New Mexico State 75, Fresno State 65.

(1) Nevada (25-5, 13-1) vs. (8) San Jose State (9-21, 1-13)

Tipoff: 9 p.m. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 12 – Nevada 81-57; Feb. 11 – Nevada 76-70*. RPI: Nevada 45, San Jose State 279. Analysis: Nevada may be an at-large team if it doesn’t win the tournament, but the Wolf Pack has to at least win this one. Line: Nevada -10½. Pick: Nevada 75, San Jose State 62.

(4) Utah State (17-14, 8-6) vs. (5) Louisiana Tech (16-15, 6-8)

Tipoff: 11:30 p.m. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 14 – Utah State 69-65; Feb. 9 – Utah State 77-63. RPI: Utah State 135, Louisiana Tech 177. Analysis: The Bulldogs are playing well and could pull off a small upset. Line: Utah State -4½. Pick: Louisiana Tech 63, Utah State 61.

*Road win

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 143-108-3

Thursday's Conference Tournament Primer

Raphielle Johnson — Thu, 08 Mar 2012 06:29:32 -0800

Big 12 - Quarterfinals
#4 Baylor vs. #5 Kansas State, 12:30 p.m. (ESPN2)
#1 Kansas vs. #9 Texas A&M, 3:00 p.m. (ESPN2)
#2 Missouri vs. #7 Oklahoma State, 7:00 p.m. (Big 12 Network)
#3 Iowa State vs. #6 Texas, 9:30 p.m. (Big 12 Network)

The most important game in the Big 12 has to be the final game of the day in Kansas City, as Texas could really use a win over Iowa State on their resume. Rick Barnes' Longhorns are either just in or just out based on which projections you follow, but a win over the Cyclones would get them to the semifinals and that may end up being enough to punch their ticket. What remains to be seen is how Texas will defend 6'8" Royce White, who has a forward's build but point guard skills...and responsibilities. The Minnesota transfer is called on by Fred Hoiberg to get things going for the likes of Scott Christopherson and Chris Allen, and Melvin Ejim is another dangerous option Texas will need to account for.

As for Texas there's no secret that J'Covan Brown is their most important player, because when he plays well their young perimeter players can gradually work their way into the flow of the game. Point guard Myck Kabongo has matured throughout the course of the season, and while he's still got a way to go before reaching the status of former UT point guards such as T.J. Ford and D.J. Augustin the talent is definitely there. The key for Texas will be what they can get out of big men Clint Chapman and Alexis Wangmene, because if those two are productive in the paint the Longhorns are an entirely different team. That could prove to be difficult however given White's unique skill set, and Texas could have to go small to deal with him on the perimeter.

Kansas and Missouri are both still part of the battle for a top seed in the NCAA tournament, and while that may be a longshot for the Tigers a Big 12 tournament title would go a long way in changing that. Marcus Denmon and Phil Pressey have been two of the best guards in the country this season, but they'll need Ricardo Ratliffe to stay out of foul trouble if they're to have success this weekend. The matchup with Oklahoma State may play right into Missouri's hands with Le'Bryan Nash injured and the Cowboys not always displaying the best decision-making.

Thomas Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor will look to lead the Jayhawks to the tournament crown after winning the regular season title outright, but keep an eye on players such as Elijah Johnson and Jeff Withey this weekend. The play of those two will be very important in the NCAA tournament, and if they can go in with some positive momentum that would be even better for Bill Self and his team. The 4/5 matchup kicks things off, and big men other than Quincy Acy are going to have to bring it physically if the Bears are to beat Kansas State. K-State on the other hand needs sound decisions from Angel Rodriguez, and he's been a work in progress in that area all season long.

ACC - First Round
#8 Maryland vs. #9 Wake Forest, Noon (ESPNU/ACC Network)
#5 NC State vs. #12 Boston College, 2:00 p.m. (ESPNU/ACC Network
#7 Clemson vs. #10 Virginia Tech, 7:00 p.m. (ESPNU/ACC Network)
#6 Miami vs. #11 Georgia Tech, 9:00 p.m. (ESPNU/ACC Network)

Just like in the Big 12 the bubble teams will be the ones to watch in Atlanta, with NC State and Miami both needing to do some work in order to have their names called on Selection Sunday. That four-game skid that NC State hit, beginning with their tough loss at Duke, could be what ultimately sends Mark Gottfried's team to the NIT, but with talented players such as Lorenzo Brown, C.J. Leslie and Scott Wood the Wolfpack are more than capable of winning a couple games (a depleted Virginia awaits the winner of their game in the quarterfinals).

As for Miami they likely have less work to do than NC State despite finishing beneath them in the standings, and while they play Georgia Tech don't expect much of a home-court advantage for the Yellow Jackets. Reggie Johnson and Kenny Kadji make up a solid interior tandem, and with thei talented guards the Canes don't lack for pieces. A win over the Jackets would mean a third meeting with Florida State, and their half of the bracket looks more conducive to a run to the finals due to State's matchup issues with North Carolina.

Big East - Quarterfinals
#1 Syracuse vs. #9 Connecticut, Noon (ESPN)
#4 Cincinnati vs. #5 Georgetown, 2:00 p.m. (ESPN)
#2 Marquette vs. #7 Louisville, 7:00 p.m. (ESPN)
#3 Notre Dame vs. #6 USF, 9:00 p.m. (ESPN)

Seven of the top eight seeds will take part in the Big East quarters, with nine-seed UConn being the "party-crasher" in that regard. The Huskies, according to many, punched their ticket with a win over West Virginia on Wednesday, but until their name is actually called on Sunday the best strategy would be to simply keep winning. Syracuse swept the regular season series, winning by two in Storrs, and with their many weapons Jim Boeheim's team is also one of the two clear favorites to make a run all the way to New Orleans. Shabazz Napier has to make sound decisions with the basketball if UConn is to win; they're not going to get away with the same number of mistakes that they did against DePaul and WVU.

The only teams on the slate who may still have work to do: Cincinnati and USF. Mick Cronin's Bearcats should be an NCAA tournament team but it's difficult to tell just how much emphasis the selection committee will place on a team's computer numbers, so the best move for Cincinnati would be to go out and beat Georgetown. As for USF, a win over Notre Dame would give them the win over a top-level Big East team that their resume is missing, and with Notre Dame also preferring to slow things down the final game of the night may not surpass 60 possessions. Anthony Collins is going to be key on both ends of the floor, as in addition to running the offense he'll have to slow down Eric Atkins.

Big Ten - First Round
#8 Iowa vs. #9 Illinois, 11:30 a.m. (BTN)
#5 Indiana vs. #12 Penn State, 1:55 p.m. (BTN)
#7 Northwestern vs. #10 Minnesota, 5:30 p.m. (ESPN2)
#6 Purdue vs. #11 Nebraska 7:55 p.m. (ESPN2)

With Purdue most likely in the Field of 68 and Illinois not looking like a tournament team at this point, most of the attention on day one in Indianapols will focus on Northwestern. Bill Carmody's Wildcats are still in search of the first NCAA berth in school history, and wings Drew Crawford and John Shurna are more than capable of getting hot and leading the Wildcats on a run. But they first have to get past Minnesota, who is wrapping up a season that really hasn't lived up to what many were hoping for even with Trevor Mbakwe going down with a torn ACL. Ralph Sampson III is banged up and if he can't go that limits the Golden Gophers even more when it comes to frontcourt depth. Iowa/Illinois looks to be a toss-up, and that fact is why Bruce Weber's seat is scalding at this point. Matt Gatens is a tough matchup, and if the Hawkeyes can get Melsahn Basabe going inside it could be them who faces top-seed Michigan State on Friday.

Big West - Quarterfinals
#3 UC Santa Barbara vs. #6 Pacific, 3:00 p.m. (BigWest.TV)
#2 Cal State Fullerton vs. #7 UC Irvine, 5:30 p.m. (BigWest.TV)
#1 Long Beach State vs. #8 UC Davis, 9:00 p.m. (BigWest.TV)
#4 Cal Poly vs. #5 UC Riverside, 11:30 p.m. (BigWest.TV)

The concern for top-seed Long Beach State isn't so much what will happen against UC Davis today but rather the remainder of the weekend as wing Larry Anderson will miss the conference tournament with a sprained knee suffered in their loss at Cal State Fullerton on Saturday. To lose a player of Anderson's caliber is a huge issue, especially when considering the fact that he's the Big West Defensive Player of the Year. Dan Monson's 49ers don't lack for talent with Casper Ware and T.J. Robinson leading the way, but it will be a tough adjustment throughout the weekend from a defensive standpoint.

UCSB has won the last two Big West tournament crowns, and with Orlando Johnson and James Nunnally the Gauchos are definitely capable of making it three straight, and Fullerton has done a very good job all season with their transfers being more than ready to take over. Johnson and Fullerton's Kwame Vaughn are the two players not at LBSU with the best chance of taking over in Anaheim, but keep an eye on UC Riverside's Phil Martin as well.

Conference USA - Quarterfinals
#2 Southern Miss vs. #10 East Carolina, 1:00 p.m. (CBS SN)
#3 Tulsa vs. #6 Marshall, 3:30 p.m. (CBS SN)
#1 Memphis vs. #8 UTEP, 7:30 p.m. (CBS SN)
#4 UCF vs. #5 UAB, 10:00 p.m. (CBS SN)

The day in Memphis appropriately tips off with Southern Miss, who despite their gaudy record still needs a strong conference tournament to feel comfortable with their NCAA tournament hopes. Larry Eustachy's team has very good computer numbers (17 RPI, 60 SOS) but there have been questions about the validity of those numbers. Whether or not that's fair is a conversation for another day, but the least that Neil Watson and company can do is simply keep winning. UCF likely needs to win the automatic bid, or at the very least reach Saturday's title game, to get to the Big Dance and the individual battle between Keith Clanton and UAB's Cameron Moore will go a long way in determining the outcome. Memphis takes on UTEP, and given the Miners' struggles on the offensive end of the floor the Tigers should advance provided Joe Jackson stays under control.

Great West - First Round
#5 Houston Baptist vs. #4 NJIT, 3:30 p.m.
The winner of the Great West Tournament gets an automatic bid to the CIT, and top seed Utah Valley is the favorite to get that done. The Wolverines take on the winner of HBU/NJIT, and the tandem of Chris Flores and Isaiah Wilkerson will need to play well if the Highlanders are to advance. Marcus Davis leads the way for Houston Baptist, and with the two teams splitting the regular season series it's anyone's guess as to who wins.

MAC - Quarterfinals
#8 Western Michigan vs. # 4 Kent State, 7:00 p.m. (STO)
#7 Toledo vs. # 3 Ohio, 9:30 p.m. (STO)

Ohio and Kent State make their debuts at the 2012 edition MAC tournament tonight, as they take on Toledo and Western Michigan respectively. The top four seeds all hail from the East Division, which underlines how much better it was than the West throughout the course of the season. D.J. Cooper has led the way at the point for John Groce's Bobcats, and his presence along with that of other key scoring options means that Ohio winning the tournament wouldn't be a shock. The same can be said for Rob Senderoff's Golden Flashes, who have four players averaging at least 9.8 points per game with Justin Greene leading the way. Akron and Buffalo await the winners in Friday's semifinals.

MEAC - Quarterfinals
#3 Delaware State vs. #11 Florida A&M, 6:00 p.m.
#5 North Carolina Central vs. #4 Bethune-Cookman, 8:00 p.m.

With top-seed Savannah State going down on Wednesday things have opened up at the top of the bracket, something that both Bethune-Cookman and North Carolina Central hope to take advantage of. NCCU is led by the tandem of Dominique Sutton and Ray Willis, as they're averaging 31.4 points per game. Guards Adrien Coleman and Kevin Dukes pace the Wildcats, who are also capable of not just winning tonight but getting to the NCAA tournament. On the other side of the bracket Delaware State and Florida A&M meet with the winner taking on Norfolk State tomorrow night, and the Hornets haven't disappointed in the suspense department this season. Don't be surprised if tonight's game goes down to the wire as well.

Mountain West - Quarterfinals
#1 San Diego State vs. #8 Boise State, 3:00 p.m. (The Mtn.)
#4 Colorado State vs. #5 TCU, 5:30 p.m. (The Mtn./CBS SN)
#2 New Mexico vs. #7 Air Force 9:00 p.m. (The Mtn.)
#3 UNLV vs. #6 Wyoming 11:30 p.m. (The Mtn./CBS SN)

The Mountain West has the look of a four-bid league at this point, but could there be a fifth team with the ability to pop up and grab the automatic bid? If so, TCU may be that team provided they take some of their mojo from Daniel Meyer Arena with them to Las Vegas. The Horned Frogs lost just one home conference game this season (SDSU), and with point guard Hank Thorns they have the best distributor in the conference. Their 4/5 battle with Colorado State should be highly entertaining given the caliber of CSU's guards, and while the Frogs have a little more size inside a lack of it hasn't prevented Pierce Hornung from out-toughing the opposition many times this season. SDSU, New Mexico and host UNLV are all playing to improve their NCAA tournament seeding, which should make for great semifinal action on Friday provided they all advance.

Pac-12 - Quarterfinals
#9 Oregon State vs. #1 Washington, 3:10 p.m. (FSN)
#5 UCLA vs. #4 Arizona, 5:40 p.m. (FSN)
#7 Stanford vs. #2 California, 9:10 p.m. (FSN)
#6 Colorado vs. #3 Oregon, 11:40 p.m. (FSN)

Thanks to Wednesday's action there's a new record for the teams to avoid: 94 points, as in the lowest combined point total in a Pac-12 tournament game (Colorado/Utah did that just hours after UCLA/USC established a "new" mark of 95 points). That's the way this season has gone for the conference, which will need some excellent basketball for its NCAA prospects. Washington won the regular season title and Cal has the best resume, but the Huskies would be well-served to not get bounced by Oregon State. Arizona suspended Josiah Turner for the tournament and UCLA had to bench Joshua Smith for the first half on Wednesday due to his tardiness in getting to the team bus. Colorado may have been poor offensively but both of their games with Oregon have been exciting contests that didn't lack for scoring. Any one of these teams can grab the automatic bid at this point, and that parity's been a bit of a curse for the Pac-12 this season.

SEC - First Round
#8 LSU vs. #9 Arkansas, 1:00 p.m. (SEC Network)
#5 Alabama vs. #12 South Carolina, 3:30 p.m. (SEC Network)
#7 Ole Miss vs. #10 Auburn, 7:30 p.m. (SEC Network)
#6 Mississippi State vs. #11 Georgia, 10:00 p.m. (SEC Network)

Seeds five through seven have the most on the line today in New Orleans, with the Crimson Tide looking to be the safest bet to go dancing. Mississippi State has faltered down the stretch and despite their individual talent it remains to be seen if they've got the mental toughness (and focus) required to turn things around. And while Ole Miss hasn't been discussed a great deal nationally in regards to the NCAA tournament bubble, Andy Kennedy's Rebels are still alive and a good showing this weekend could punch their ticket. Ole Miss also suspended Jelan Kendrick for the weekend due to his, shall we say interesting, actions before the Rebels' regular season finale. The key players today: Alabama's Trevor Releford and Mississippi State's Dee Bost. Those two play well and their teams will win; don't and both the Tide and Bulldogs will be headed home.

SWAC - Quarterfinals
#3 Prairie View A&M vs. #6 Alcorn State, 1:30 p.m. (SWAC TV)
#4 Alabama State vs. #5 UAPB, 9:00 p.m. (SWAC TV)

Top-seed Mississippi Valley State avoided disaster last night, advancing to the semis with a three-point win over Jackson State. Both they and texas Southern await the winners of today's quarterfinals, which begins with Prairie View A&M battling Alcorn State. Prairie View won by three in their last meeting...five days ago, with Jordan Demuynck going off for 27 points to lead the Panthers. Alabama State and UAPB both finished 9-9 in conference play, which makes it anyone's guess as to who wins tonight.

WAC - Quarterfinals
#3 Idaho vs. #6 Hawai'i, 3:00 p.m.
#2 New Mexico State vs. #7 Fresno State, 5:30 p.m.
#1 Nevada vs. #8 San Jose State, 9:00 p.m.
#4 Utah State vs. #5 Louisiana Tech, 11:30 p.m.

There are two conference tournaments in Las Vegas this weekend with the WAC taking over Orleans Arena this weekend. Nevada has been the best team all season long in the WAC but that would all be for naught if they were to get upset. New Mexico State is the team best equipped to grab the automatic bid if the Wolf Pack don't thanks to Wendell McKines, and Idaho handed Nevada their lone conference loss this season. As for the disappointing team that may be capable of making a run look no furthern than Hawai'i, who can call on Vander Joaquim and Joston Thomas inside.

Huskies, Bulls Winners on Big East "Bubble Day"

Raphielle Johnson — Wed, 07 Mar 2012 21:39:12 -0800

Wednesday shaped up as a big day at Madison Square Garden, as four of the eight teams in action were looking to boost their respective NCAA tournament resumes. Two of the four teams, Connecticut and West Virginia, kicked things off in a tight contest that neither team led by more than eleven points (WVU). And while there were plenty of head-scratching decisions made down the stretch by both teams, Jim Calhoun's Huskies were the ones best able to navigate those issues, winning 71-67 in overtime to advance to Thursday's quarterfinals.

UConn gets the ultimate "signature win" opportunity as they take on a Syracuse games that's lost just one game this season and beaten the Huskies twice. Shabazz Napier led the way for the Huskies with 26 points, six assists and four rebounds, eventually fouling out early in overtime after waiting too long and ending up having to force a challenged three at the end of regulation. But his decision-making issues were trumped by West Virginia guard Truck Bryant, who forced some really bad shots down the stretch as the Mountaineers sputtered offensively.

"When coach asked us to run a play, we have to execute it as well as possible, and I don't think we do a good job of that," said Kevin Jones, who finished with 25 points and ten rebounds. "Also, we don't do a good job of staying strong with the ball. We let people take the ball from us, and it's kind of a matter of getting out?toughed the last five minutes."

Turnovers were one issue, but the biggest was the fact that WVU failed to get the ball to Jones down the stretch. The senior from nearby Mount Vernon, NY, who many claimed should have been Big East Player of the Year, attempted a shot with 7:16 remaining in regulation and didn't take another until he missed a three with 1:30 to go...in overtime. Some of the credit can be given to Andre Drummond, whose performance on the defensive end improved greatly in the second half, but the overwhelming feeling is that WVU didn't execute well enough to get Jones the ball.

The Mountaineers squandered a dominant effort on the glass, as they grabbed 26 offensive boards and out-rebounded UConn 47-31 on the afternoon. But those issues executing, with the guards as a whole struggling to get the ball where it needed to go, along with Jeremy Lamb waking up with Napier finished to knock down a key three-pointer with 1:05 remaining in overtime, proved costly. WVU played a good non-conference schedule and that's something the selection committee tends to reward, so the Mountaineers will likely end up in the Big Dance.

It's not so cut and dry at this point for Seton Hall, with the Pirates now turning into spectators following their 61-55 loss to Louisville. Kevin Willard's Pirates approach Selection Sunday having lost four of their last six games, and was a struggle offensively against the Cardinals. Point guard Jordan Theodore finished with a team-high 17 points but just two assists, with the first not coming until nine minutes remaining in the game. Have the Pirates done enough to be a part of the field? It's going to be a stressful couple of days for Seton Hall, who hope that their high strength of schedule can push them through.

USF completed the night with a 56-47 win over Villanova, and the key at this point for Stan Heath's Bulls is to simply keep winning. Freshman point guard Anthony Collins led the way with 17 points and four assists in what was an ugly game offensively, and a third win over the Wildcats won't do a whole lot for their resume. But to get a matchup with Notre Dame is a great opportunity for the Bulls, who with a win on Thursday night would make their first-ever semifinal appearance. The simplest thing for a bubble team to do at this time of the season is to make sure they live to fight another day. Connecticut and USF did just that on Wednesday.

Three Notable Performances

1. C Mike Muscala (Bucknell) and G C.J. McCollum (Lehigh)
Muscala accounted for 30 points, 14 rebounds, four assists and three blocked shots in the Bison's 82-77 loss to Lehigh in the Patriot League final. McCollum led the Mountain Hawks with 29 points, five assists, three rebounds and three steals.

2. G Damian Lillard (Weber State) and F Mathias Ward (Montana)
Lillard finished with 29 points, ten rebounds and seven assists in the Wildcats' 85-66 loss to Montana in the Big Sky final. Ward led the Grizzlies with 23 points, knocking down ten of his sixteen shots from the field to go along with eight rebounds.

3. F Rian Pearson (Toledo)
20 points and 15 rebounds in the Rockets' 75-72 win over Northern Illinois.

Wednesday's Conference Tournament Primer

Raphielle Johnson — Wed, 07 Mar 2012 07:13:22 -0800

Day two of the Big East Championship features four teams looking to improve their chances of reaching the NCAA tournament, with the biggest game of the day being the first. Nine-seed Connecticut, who opener their tournament with an 81-67 win over DePaul on Tuesday, takes on eight-seed West Virginia with the winner likely locking up a tournament berth. These two teams met once during the regular season, a 64-57 UConn victory at the XL Center on January 9th, and with so much change over the nearly two months since that game there may not be a whole lot to take from it.

But there is rebounding, something the Mountaineers did extremely well in defeat and had they not gone cold in the second half Bob Huggins' team likely wins the game. WVU grabbed 20 offensive rebounds in the Januar meeting...twenty. The Mountaineers have been a very good team at hitting the offensive glass for most of Huggins' tenure at his alma mater, with the big men expected to give maximum effort in that department. This season West Virginia averages 14.7 offensive rebounds per game, which works out to the Mountaineers grabbing 40.7% of their misses per statsheet.com.

Kevin Jones, who led the Big East in both scoring and rebounding this season, has led the way and maybe he uses the slight of not being a unanimous All-Big East selection as motivation (this is the injustice Mountaineer fans should be upset about as opposed to the Player of the Year award). UConn clearly will try to account for Jones with their stable of big men, but if Deniz Kilicli brings the effort as well it will be tough for the Husky big men from a toughness standpoint. Roscoe Smith has played well of late and at this point is a key figure in the rotation, while getting the likes of Andre Drummond and Alex Oriakhi to play well on a consistent basis has remained an issue.

Guard play will be critical as well, especially with the Mountaineers calling on freshman guards Gary Browne and Jabarie Hinds in addition to senior Truck Bryant. Bryant needs to consistently make sound decisions if WVU is to be successful, and the same can be said for UConn's Jeremy Lamb and Shabazz Napier. The guards who play smarter will lead the winning team in this one.

Also on the bubble "stage" are Seton Hall and USF, with both teams likely needing wins albeit for different reasons. The Pirates looked to be a safe bet for the Field of 68 before dropping games to Rutgers and DePaul, so a win over Louisville would do a great deal for their hopes. USF simply needs to keep playing, as their unbalanced league slate has devalued their 12 league wins in the eyes of many.

Big East - Second Round
#8 West Virginia vs. #9 Connecticut, Noon (ESPN)
#5 Georgetown vs. #13 Pittsburgh, 2:00 p.m. (ESPN)
#7 Louisville vs. #10 Seton Hall, 7:00 p.m. (ESPN)
#6 USF vs. #14 Villanova, 9:00 p.m. (ESPN)

Big 12 - First Round
#8 Oklahoma vs. #9 Texas A&M, 7:00 p.m. (Big 12 Network)
#7 Oklahoma State vs. #10 Texas Tech, 9:30 p.m. (Big 12 Network)

Not a whole lot to see here, other than the fact that the two winners will move on to face Kansas and Missouri on Thursday. Oklahoma likely has the most to gain from today's action, as a win would guarantee a .500 (or better) finish and put them in line for a postseason berth in Lon Kruger's first season. The extra game and practice action can do a great deal for the Sooners, almost akin to what bowl practices can do for college football teams. The other three will need to win the conference tournament to either guarantee a .500 finish (Oklahoma State) or go to the postseason.

Big Sky - Title Game
#2 Weber State at #1 Montana, 9:00 p.m. (ESPN2)

The two best teams in the Big Sky all season long meet in Missoula with the winner getting the NCAA berth and the loser headed to the NIT. Weber State and Montana split the regular season series, with the home team winning both by double digits. The backcourt battle could be the best in the country on today's schedule, with Weber State's Damian Lillard and Scott Bamforth battling Montana's Will Cherry and Kareem Jamar. One area to watch tonight will be offensive rebounding, something the Wildcats have done well in both meetings. If Darin Mahoney and Kyle Tresnak can control the boards once again they can win in Missoula, and with the Grizzlies not being the best rebounding team that's definitely possible. Unlike the first two meetings, look for the rubber match to go right down to the wire.

Conference USA - First Round
#7 Rice vs. #10 East Carolina, 1:00 p.m. (CSS)
#6 Marshall vs. #11 SMU, 3:30 p.m. (CSS)
#8 UTEP vs. #9 Houston, 7:30 p.m. (CSS)
#5 UAB vs. #12 Tulane, 10:00 p.m. (CSS)

Similar to the Big 12's first round there's not much to see in Memphis in regards to who will make the NCAA tournament out of Conference USA (Memphis, who will reach the Sweet 16, is a lock. Who joins them?). UAB, Marshall, Rice and Houston are all playing for postseason berths, with the Thundering Herd having the best shot at finding somewhere to play next week. The other three all need multiple wins to ensure finishing .500 or better, and outside of the Herd (led by DeAndre Kane and Damier Pitts) and UAB (Cameron Moore is a player) it's tough to find any team capable of making a run to either Friday or Saturday.

MAC - Second Round
#12 Northern Illinois vs. #8 Western Michigan, 7:00 p.m. (STO)
#7 Toledo vs. #11 Central Michigan, 9:30 p.m. (STO)

The winners of tonight's action in Cleveland move on to battle Ohio and Kent State on Thursday night in the newly recorfigured MAC tournament, and for the Huskies and Chippewas to reach this point is a surprise in itself. NIU takes on a Western Michigan team that swept the regular season series, with the game in Kalamazoo being the closer of the two. CMU looks to be in better shape from a competitive standpoint in their matchup with Toledo, as the Chips lost to the Rockets by just five in their second meeting. Rian Pearson leads the way for the Rockets, and if CMU finds away to neutralize him they've got a shot at the win.

MEAC - Opening Round/Quarterfinals
# 1 Savannah State vs. #8 Hampton, 6:00 p.m.
# 2 Norfolk State vs. #10 Howard, 8:00 p.m.

The top two seeds begin their march towards the MEAC's automatic bid, and both Savannah State and Norfolk State will be favored to get to the semifinals. Horace Broadnax's Tigers won the regular season title outright, quite the achievement for a team not only picked to finish 11th in the preseason poll but also in its first season as a full Division I (and MEAC) member. NSU, who many expected to win the league, finished a game out of first and has the MEAC's best player in forward Kyle O'Quinn. Hampton may be able to give Savannah State some trouble and the same goes for Howard, but both favorites should move on.

NEC - Title Game
#3 Robert Morris at #1 LIU Brooklyn, 7:00 p.m. (ESPN2)

The NEC delivers a rematch of last season's title game, a battle that went right down to the wire with the home team (LIU Brooklyn) winning by a basket. The rematch should be just as close, with Velton Jones leading the Colonials and forwards Julian Boyd and Jamal Olasewere pacing the Blackbirds. LIU has to rebound, something they haven't always done consistently this season, if they're to defend their home floor and make a return trip to the Big Dance. RMU has done a solid job defensively of late, and that will be the ticket for them if they're to win an NEC title on the road for the second time in three seasons.

Pac-12 - First Round
#8 Washington State vs. # 9 Oregon State, 3:10 p.m. (FSN)
# 5 UCLA vs. # 12 USC, 5:40 p.m. (FSN)
# 7 Stanford vs. # 10 Arizona State, 9:10 p.m. (FSN)
# 6 Colorado vs. # 11 Utah, 11:40 p.m. (FSN)

The Pac-12 is essentially a tournament where one could toss two NCAA bids in the middle of the Staples Center and let all 12 teams fight to the death for them. The resumes are that bad, and without any true separation there isn't a clear favorite either. Colorado and Utah kick off their first Pac-12 tournament experiences and the Buffs will be favored to beat the Utes in the final game of the day. But a sleeper to grab the automatic berth may lie in the second game, as UCLA is coming off of a home sweep of the Washington schools as they brushed off the Sports Illustrated article that painted the program in a negative light. If Joshua Smith can stay on the floor and be a factor, there's no reason why the Bruins can't win the tournament. Oregon State and Stanford could also make a run, with the Cardinal likely being the better choice despite the presence of OSU's Jared Cunningham.

Patriot - Title Game
#2 Lehigh at #1 Bucknell, 7:00 p.m. (CBS SN)

The road team won both meetings during the regular season, with a C.J. McCollum dagger giving the Mountain Hawks the win in the second meeting. McCollum and Bucknell's Mike Muscala were the two best players in the Patriot League this season, with McCollum winning Player of the Year. But the key for the Mountain Hawks may be to make sure that Joe Willman doesn't have a big night alongside Muscala. Willman averaged 10.8 points per game and was a Second Team All-Patriot League selection, as was guard Cameron Ayers. Inside for Lehigh Gabe Knutson and Holden Grenier have both played well this season, providing good frontcourt scoring to balance out what McCollum brings to the table.

Southland - Quarterfinals
# 2 Stephen F. Austin vs. # 7 Sam Houston St, 1:00 p.m.
# 3 Lamar vs. # 6 Northwestern St., 3:30 p.m.
# 1 UT Arlington vs. # 8 Nicholls St., 6:00 p.m.
# 4 McNeese St. vs. # 5 UTSA, 8:30 p.m.

The Southland tournament gets going today (there's an off day between the semifinals and title game), and regular season champ UT-Arlington enters as the favorite. LaMarcus Reed III was one of the leaders for a team that lost just one game in conference play, but they won't go unchallenged in Katy either. Reigning tournament champion UTSA returned a number of key players from last season's team, most notable Melvin Johnson III and reserve Kannor Burrage leading the way. Pat Knight's Lamar Cardinals are another possible winner, provided seniors like Mike James take the reins from a leadership standpoint. Look for there to be an upset or two on our way to the championship.

SWAC -Quarterfinals
#2 Texas Southern vs. #7 Alabama A&M, 1:30 p.m. (SWAC TV)
#1 Mississippi Valley State vs. #8 Jackson State, 9:00 p.m. (SWAC TV)

MIssissippi Valley State begins tournament play with Jackson State, and while they ran through the SWAC without much fuss, the Delta Devils' overall record will make them a 16-seed should they get the automatic bid. Paul Crosby, Terrence Joyner and company have taken nearly a third of their shots from beyond the arc this season, and if those shots are falling MVSU is a tough team to beat. Jackson State played them close in both meetings, so the question for tonight is whether or not they have enough to get over the hump. Texas Southern gets the two-seed due to Southern's ineligibility, and they swept Alabama A&M during the regular season with both wins by double digits.