Colonial

Poll: Who Will Win the CAA?

Shawn Siegel — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 12:01:12 -0400

College Basketball: Preseason Conference Ranking

CHN — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 11:43:04 -0400

After finishing 1st in the RPI the last two years, the ACC should fall back slightly thanks to the big-name departures at UNC & Wake Forest. This should allow one of the Big 12, Big Ten, or even SEC a shot at being #1. The Pac-10 is weak enough that a high-major like the A-10, MVC, or MWC could surpass it.

Chime in with your thoughts below if you agree or disagree with CHN's preseason conference ranking.

2009-10 Conference Ranking

*08-09 is last year's conference RPI. Commentary by Shawn Siegel, ranking by CHN.

	Conference	08-09*
1	Big Ten 9 of 11 teams go into season with ncaa hopes, and as many as 7 may reach that goal	2
2	Big 12 ku is the clear title contender. the bottom few teams are weak though and the middle-tier is hit or miss	3
3	ACC no dominant team like last year, but solid as always.	1
4	SEC rise of uk brings league back to prominence after down year..	6
5	Big East lose tons of big name players, and still held down by likes of depual, rutgers, etc	4
6	Pac-10 conceivable the pac-10 only receives 3 tourney bids.	5
7	Atlantic 10 should get at least 2 invites to the ncaa tournament	8
8	MVC with improvement expected from usual leaders creighton & siu, mvc should be solid all-around	9
9	MWC just about every top team loses a top player, but mwc should be one of the more entertaining leagues	7
10	Conference USA though memphis takes step back, rest of league is better than usual.	10
11	WAC after some down years, wac will once again be compeititve league	11
12	Horizon butler has top 10 hopes, but squads like csu and green bay lose key seniors.	12
13	Colonial while still 1 bid league, likes of odu, n'eastern, gmu, and vcu are all quality	14
14	Sun Belt more then just wku, the entire east division is solid	17
15	MAAC siena, niagara, and rider all have postseason hopes	13
16	WCC gonzaga and smc both worse then season ago	15
17	MAC #'s should be better than last year, but west division still a struggle	21
18	Big West led by up-and-coming long beach state. always finish around this #.	18
19	Summit darling ndsu loses a lot, so usual contenders like oru and oakland should be at forefront again	26
20	Big Sky with exception of sacramento st, this is a solid league top to bottom.	24
21	Southland underrated league always good for some non-conference upsets	19
22	Ivy cornell will be the best the ivy has offered in quite some years	29
23	Southern steph curry's departure opens up door for charleston	20
24	America East decimation of binghamton will hurt league #'s	16
25	Atlantic Sun the league's upper half is as solid as it's been for a few years	27
26	Patriot could use a rebound from former top gun bucknell.	22
27	OVC morehead st continues its improbable rise..	23
28	Big South outside of radford, not much to get excited about here..	25
29	NEC nec hasn't had much going for it in recent years	28
30	MEAC as usual, will battle swac for title of country's worst	30
31	SWAC solid jackson st gives swac hope of surpassing meac	31

College Basketball Preview - 144 Teams in 144 Days - Alphabetical Ranks/Previews

Old Dominion Basketball Preview: #48

Joel Welser — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 11:36:36 -0400

Overall Rank: #48

Conference Rank: #1 Colonial Athletic Association

2008-09: 25-10, 12-6

2008-09 postseason: CIT

Coach: Blaine Taylor (161-94 at Old Dominion, 303-159 overall)

Eight players started at least nine games for Old Dominion last year and all of them are back. While somebody like Northeastern, George Mason or VCU will step up and give the Monarchs a challenge for the Colonial Athletic Association crown, ODU is the clear favorite heading into the season.

Key Losses: F Jonathan Adams

Key Newcomers:

This team will not need much help from the newcomers with so much talent returning and it is possible that all three newcomers will find themselves on the bench for most of the season, or possibly be redshirted. Shooting guard Josh Hicks is the most likely player to see some minutes this year as an offensive spark off the bench. Redshirt freshman Nick Wright and Denmark native Anton Larsen will have more trouble finding playing time, but both have potential to make an impact in the future.

Backcourt:

The backcourt duo of Darius James and Marsharee Neely did not score too often, but both are important pieces of the puzzle. James is the only major returning contributor who shot under 40 percent from the floor. But that is not a big deal since he does more important things than shoot. James dished out 4.5 assists per game last year and did a great job keeping the turnovers to a minimum. If James can start hitting his outside shot a little more consistently, he will turn into a star. Marsharee Neely will be by his side. Neely is a more consistent long range shooter and should return to his starting role at the two guard spot. With Kent Bazemore available off the bench, the ODU backcourt is gaining experience and should be more productive than they were last season.

Frontcourt:

But the frontcourt might take away a lot of that production since Keyon Carter, Frank Hassell and Gerald Lee are all back. It is Lee who has turned into the star of the team after averaging an impressive 15.5 points and 5.7 rebounds last year. He is even one of the best free-throw shooters on the team and the 6-10 senior will get fouled a lot. Carter started 13 games last year and will probably be relegated to the bench in favor of Hassell again this season. Both are good scorers, but Carter can stretch out the defense with his outside shooting, while Hassell is tougher on the glass.

Who to Watch:

The frontcourt players are all good rebounders, but wing Ben Finney is the best of them all, leading the team with 6.0 per contest during the 2008-2009 campaign. Finney does more than rebound though. He pretty much does everything. He can hit the outside shot, use his 6-5 frame to attack the basket and even pass the ball quite effectively. It is Finney who holds this team together and does what needs to be done during any particular game.

Final Projection:

If Coach Blaine Taylor can avoid injuries and pretty much play with an eight man rotation all season long, this is more than just the team to beat in CAA. This could be a team that will make some noise in March or at least give somebody a big time scare. If Old Dominion plays as well as they did at times last year, they might not even need to win the conference tournament to get to the big dance, but they better win some big games in the non-conference portion of their schedule if they want to keep any at-large hopes alive.

Projected Post-season Tournament: NCAA

Projected Starting Five:

Darius James, Junior, Guard, 6.9 points per game

Marsharee Neely, Senior, Guard, 7.1 points per game

Ben Finney, Junior, Guard, 9.9 points per game

Keyon Carter, Junior, Forward, 7.9 points per game

Gerald Lee, Senior, Forward, 15.5 points per game

Next Top 144 Teams
49		50		51		52

College Basketball Preview - 144 Teams in 144 Days - Alphabetical Ranks/Previews

George Mason Basketball Preview: #66

Joel Welser — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 09:02:27 -0400

Overall Rank: #66

Conference Rank: #2 Colonial Athletic Association

2008-09: 22-11, 13-5

2008-09 postseason: NIT

Coach: Jim Larranaga (229-142 at George Mason, 427-311 overall)

George Mason continues to have success, although nothing will ever quite live up to their Final Four appearance. Still this is a team that is in the mix for the top spot year in and year out in the Colonial Athletic Association. And they will be again this year even without three of their top four scorers from a year ago.

Key Losses: F Darryl Monroe, G Dre Smith, G John Vaughn

Key Newcomers:

This is one of the best recruiting classes for a so-called mid-major team in the nation. Small forward Paris Bennett could find himself in the starting lineup right away. That is unless shooting guard Sherrod Wright has something to say about it. Wright is a prolific scorer from anywhere on the floor and he will immediately give this team another offensive weapon. Vertrail Vaughns and Rashad Whack will add even more options on the perimeter. Johnny Williams highlights the big guys. The 6-8 power forward averaged a double-double in high school and has the size and strength to battle in the CAA as a freshman. Add Luke Hancock and redshirt freshman Kevin Foster to the mix and the Patriots have a lot of youth to work with.

Backcourt:

The problem is the returning players on the perimeter are pretty young too. Andre Cornelius is just a sophomore and while he showed promise as a freshman, is he really ready to take over this team? By the numbers he committed more turnovers than he had assists and that will have to change if George Mason expects him to be the consistent ball handler that they need. Cam Long can run the point too, but he is also the team’s best scorer. Last season as a sophomore he led the squad with 11.7 points per game. Long is a very consistent outside shooter and the more time he can spend off the ball trying to get open for three-pointers, the better.

Frontcourt:

Like the backcourt, the frontcourt is also bursting with potential. Ryan Pearson, a 6-6 forward, had a very good freshman campaign, averaging 7.0 points and 3.6 rebounds. He only started one game and averaged less than 18 minutes per contest. Without Darryl Monroe on the floor, Pearson is expected to take over a lot of those minutes. Fellow sophomore Mike Morrison will take some of those minutes too. Morrison has more size than Pearson and when Coach Jim Larranaga needs another rebounder on the floor, he will call on Morrison.

Who to Watch:

There is only one senior on the roster and it is 6-6 forward Louis Birdsong. Birdsong let Monroe do most of the scoring under the basket last year, but he will need to become more assertive on the offensive end and join Pearson as an interior scorer. Unlike Pearson, Birdsong is a decent outside shooter and can consistently knock down the mid-range jumper and even occasionally a three-pointer. However, it is on the defensive end where Birdsong does his best work after leading the team with 1.1 blocks per game last season.

Final Projection:

There are a lot of options on this team. If Long needs to run the point, then some of the talented freshmen will step in on the wings and give the Patriots plenty of scoring options. The frontcourt can play small with Pearson and Birdsong or they can go big with Morrison and Williams. Time will tell how the battles for playing time will shake out, but one thing is for sure: this young team will grow up and be very dangerous come March.

Projected Post-season Tournament: NIT

Projected Starting Five:

Andre Cornelius, Sophomore, Guard, 5.5 points per game

Cam Long, Junior, Guard, 11.7 points per game

Paris Bennett, Freshman, Forward, DNP last season

Ryan Pearson, Sophomore, Forward, 7.0 points per game

Louis Birdsong, Senior, Forward, 6.4 points per game

Next Top 144 Teams
67		68		69		70

College Basketball Preview - 144 Teams in 144 Days - Preview Interviews

Conference Tournament Odds: High-Majors

Evan Dorey — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 10:52:19 -0400

Tournament Odds: High-Major Conferences

These are conference tournament log5 projections, using in-conference offensive and defensive efficiency. The basic log5 methodology comes from Bill James, and this is an area Ken Pomeroy has looked at in the past as well. I claim nothing new in the application, but obviously with slightly different methodologies, these numbers may differ from others you find.

Atlantic 10 - March 11-14

Held in Atlantic City, NJ, the A-10 tournament features 12 of the league’s 14 teams, with the top four earning a bye directly to the quarterfinals.

#	Team	QF	SF	F	W
1	Xavier	100.00%	88.67%	60.89%	45.37%
2	Rhode Island	100.00%	67.75%	35.41%	11.80%
3	Dayton	100.00%	78.89%	46.64%	17.05%
4	Temple	100.00%	79.29%	32.52%	20.27%
5	Saint Joseph's	71.34%	17.42%	3.51%	1.25%
6	Richmond	68.91%	17.08%	5.64%	0.95%
7	Duquesne	59.98%	21.43%	8.29%	1.85%
8	La Salle	55.47%	6.82%	1.75%	0.53%
9	St. Louis	44.53%	4.51%	0.99%	0.26%
10	Massachusetts	40.02%	10.82%	3.27%	0.54%
11	St. Bonaventure	31.09%	4.03%	0.75%	0.06%
12	Charlotte	28.66%	3.29%	0.33%	0.06%

Xavier is the clear favorite, but Dayton, Temple and Rhode Island all have a decent shot of taking the title. The bottom 8 teams are separated by a relatively small amount, with Duquesne and Richmond looking like the best bets for surprise runs.

Colonial - March 6-9

The Colonial Tournament gives semifinal byes to the top 4 teams, and all games are hosted in Richmond; not in VCU’s home arena, but only a few minutes away. For that reason, I’ve decided to treat the games as semi-home games, giving a partial bonus to VCU’s chances.

#	Team	QF	SF	F	W
1	Virginia Commonwealth	100.00%	94.56%	83.70%	58.63%
2	George Mason	100.00%	83.28%	52.85%	22.67%
3	Northeastern	100.00%	70.20%	33.03%	11.76%
4	Old Dominion	100.00%	65.32%	10.70%	2.94%
5	Hofstra	89.78%	34.02%	3.86%	0.74%
6	Drexel	86.17%	28.77%	9.19%	2.16%
7	James Madison	76.07%	15.00%	4.62%	0.85%
8	Georgia St.	46.20%	2.32%	0.69%	0.08%
9	Delaware	53.80%	3.12%	1.03%	0.14%
10	William & Mary	23.93%	1.72%	0.22%	0.02%
11	Towson	13.83%	1.03%	0.08%	0.00%
12	NC Wilmington	10.22%	0.66%	0.01%	0.00%

VCU is indeed the favorite, as we’d expect from the hosts and champions, but I was rather surprised just how good its odds are. Both GMU and Northeastern will provide tough potential challenges, while ODU are primed for an early defeat, and Drexel could be a bit of a Cinderella.

(Ed: As expected, VCU locked up the title Monday night)

Conference USA - March 11-14

The C-USA tournament will be held in Memphis, TN, and give the top four teams a first-round bye.

#	Team	QF	SF	F	W
1	Memphis	100.00%	98.60%	94.04%	86.69%
2	Tulsa	100.00%	89.61%	49.28%	5.70%
3	UAB	100.00%	79.65%	43.55%	5.13%
4	Texas El Paso	100.00%	46.00%	2.25%	0.75%
5	Houston	91.19%	52.96%	3.37%	1.38%
6	Central Florida	81.82%	19.19%	5.56%	0.27%
7	Marshall	60.25%	7.15%	1.13%	0.03%
8	Tulane	60.00%	0.97%	0.25%	0.04%
9	East Carolina	40.00%	0.43%	0.08%	0.01%
10	Rice	39.75%	3.24%	0.36%	0.01%
11	USM	18.18%	0.011584	0.11%	0.00%
12	SMU	8.81%	1.04%	0.01%	0.00%

As if Memphis needed more help, the tourney being in its hometown boosts its odds to the best of any team in the country. Tulsa and UAB seem to be the only teams that have a chance, but let’s face it, anyone but Memphis lifting the trophy will be the biggest shock of the month.

Horizon - March 3-10

The four first round winners will play between themselves to sort out who ends up as the opponents for the top two finishers, who got byes all the way to the semis, with the higher seeds hosting all games.

#	Team	SF	F	W
1	Butler	100.00%	85.75%	68.21%
2	Green Bay	100.00%	56.44%	16.23%
3	Cleveland St.	82.05%	40.42%	11.42%
4	Wright St.	63.62%	10.54%	3.17%
5	Milwaukee	36.38%	3.71%	0.75%
7	Illinois Chicago	17.95%	3.14%	0.21%

Butler is the pretty clear favorite, and it will be tough for any team but Cleveland St. to make it through the first two rounds to the final.

MAAC - March 6-9

The MAAC tournament gives first round byes to the top two teams, with all games hosted in Siena’s home building, the Times Union Center in Albany.

#	Team	QF	SF	F	W
1	Siena	100.00%	93.01%	84.81%	57.87%
2	Niagara	100.00%	88.73%	73.51%	34.06%
3	Rider	100.00%	65.54%	16.42%	3.50%
4	Manhattan	100.00%	48.97%	5.81%	1.21%
5	Fairfield	100.00%	51.03%	6.25%	1.34%
6	St. Peter's	100.00%	34.46%	5.47%	0.76%
7	Iona	72.09%	9.69%	4.23%	0.66%
8	Loyola MD	64.81%	5.35%	2.58%	0.52%
9	Canisius	35.19%	1.64%	0.55%	0.07%
10	Marist	27.91%	1.58%	0.37%	0.03%

A pretty clear two-horse race sees the hometown team being the favorites, and a good Siena-Niagara final looks awfully likely.

(Ed: As expected, Siena locked up the title Monday night)

Missouri Valley - March 5-8

Arch Madness features the bottom four teams battling for quarterfinals spot, and the top six getting byes.

#	Team	QF	SF	F	W
1	Northern Iowa	100.00%	85.62%	66.54%	38.32%
2	Creighton	100.00%	85.61%	49.52%	27.45%
3	Illinois St.	100.00%	82.32%	43.51%	23.21%
4	Bradley	100.00%	67.10%	21.45%	7.10%
5	Southern Illinois	100.00%	32.90%	6.53%	1.31%
6	Evansville	100.00%	17.68%	3.82%	0.84%
7	Wichita St.	65.34%	11.02%	2.64%	0.60%
8	Drake	56.54%	8.91%	3.60%	0.77%
9	Indiana St.	43.46%	5.47%	1.88%	0.33%
10	Missouri St.	34.66%	3.37%	0.50%	0.07%

There’s not much surprise that the three teams that were at the head of the conference all season look to have the best chances at taking the auto-bid.

(Ed: As expected, UNI locked up the title.)

MWC - March 11-14

The bottom two teams meet in the opening round of the MWC Tournament, hosted on UNLV’s home court in Las Vegas.

#	Team	QF	SF	F	W
1	Brigham Young	100.00%	97.00%	66.45%	40.19%
2	Utah	100.00%	89.76%	40.59%	16.81%
3	New Mexico	100.00%	90.23%	56.55%	28.47%
4	San Diego St.	100.00%	35.87%	9.25%	3.06%
5	UNLV	100.00%	64.13%	24.10%	11.18%
6	Wyoming	100.00%	9.77%	1.77%	0.19%
7	Texas Christian	100.00%	10.24%	1.09%	0.09%
8	Colorado St.	46.01%	1.27%	0.08%	0.00%
9	Air Force	53.99%	1.73%	0.12%	0.01%

BYU is the favorite, but the winner of a potential New Mexico-Utah semifinal would also have a good chance of taking the title. UNLV’s home advantage should see it past SDSU and could propel it all the way to the auto-bid.

Southern - March 6-9

The SOCON Tournament is in Charleston, SC, and uses a divisional system, with the top 4 teams getting first round byes.

#	Team	QF	SF	F	W
N1	Chattanooga	100.00%	58.68%	21.71%	2.96%
S1	Davidson	100.00%	94.62%	82.67%	72.43%
N2	Western Carolina	100.00%	28.29%	2.21%	0.69%
S2	The Citadel	100.00%	72.60%	51.19%	12.12%
N3	Samford	87.80%	26.70%	13.71%	1.81%
S3	College of Charleston	91.05%	69.55%	13.24%	7.74%
N4	Appalachian St.	77.37%	4.94%	1.75%	0.61%
S4	Wofford	76.38%	36.18%	12.55%	1.58%
N5	Elon	23.62%	5.14%	0.75%	0.04%
S5	Georgia Southern	22.63%	0.44%	0.07%	0.01%
N6	NC Greensboro	8.95%	2.16%	0.06%	0.01%
S6	Furman	12.20%	0.70%	0.09%	0.00%

Between Davidson, Charleston and The Citadel, the South division should dominate the tournament.

(Ed: Chattanooga won the SoCon tournament, the only High-Major league so far in which our highest rated team didn't win.)

Sun Belt - March 4-10

The first round of the Sun Belt conference will be played at campus sites, with the 13-team tournament meaning three first round byes.

#	Team	QF	SF	F	W
1	Western Kentucky	100.00%	90.49%	75.07%	55.40%
2	Arkansas Little Rock	100.00%	65.40%	41.27%	17.21%
3	Troy	100.00%	61.10%	27.52%	9.23%
4	North Texas	93.35%	58.60%	14.54%	6.11%
5	Middle Tennessee	71.43%	29.94%	5.46%	1.74%
6	South Alabama	90.37%	37.68%	13.99%	3.83%
7	Denver	91.25%	33.76%	16.96%	5.25%
8	Louisiana Lafayette	73.45%	7.57%	2.78%	0.70%
9	Florida International	26.55%	1.94%	0.56%	0.11%
10	Louisiana Monroe	8.75%	0.85%	0.13%	0.01%
11	New Orleans	9.63%	1.22%	0.13%	0.01%
12	Arkansas St.	28.57%	10.22%	1.52%	0.40%
13	Florida Atlantic	6.65%	1.24%	0.07%	0.01%

Western Kentucky look primed to return to the tournament, but after that there’s a host of teams that will challenge for the spot.

WAC - March 10-14

The WAC tournament features a single first round game between the #8 and #9 seeds, and will be on Nevada’s home floor in Reno.

#	Team	W	F	W
1	Utah St.	100.00%	89.40%	71.39%	41.57%
2	Nevada	100.00%	89.99%	74.64%	44.22%
3	Idaho	100.00%	50.12%	10.97%	2.85%
4	Boise St.	100.00%	52.31%	13.57%	4.07%
5	New Mexico St.	100.00%	47.69%	11.64%	3.30%
6	Louisiana Tech	100.00%	49.88%	10.88%	2.82%
7	San Jose St.	100.00%	10.01%	3.52%	0.59%
8	Hawaii	47.47%	4.79%	1.48%	0.25%
9	Fresno St.	52.53%	5.81%	1.92%	0.35%

Nevada’s home court advantage gives them a serious chance of causing an upset in what would otherwise be a romp for the Aggies. The 3-6 teams don’t show a lot of separation, and any could pull an upset of the top two.

WCC - March 6-9

The WCC is playing its tournament at a neutral site in Las Vegas for the first time, but the format, with a double-bye for the top 2 seeds and a bye for seeds 3 and 4, is the same as it has been.

#	Team	QF	SF	F	W
1	Gonzaga	100.00%	100.00%	95.82%	82.70%
2	St. Mary's	100.00%	100.00%	68.22%	12.64%
3	Portland	100.00%	86.67%	30.71%	3.64%
4	Santa Clara	100.00%	67.53%	3.31%	0.85%
5	San Diego	91.55%	32.07%	0.87%	0.14%
6	Pepperdine	58.80%	8.80%	0.78%	0.02%
7	San Francisco	41.20%	4.53%	0.29%	0.01%
8	Loyola Marymount	8.45%	0.40%	0.00%	0.00%

With just 2 games, Gonzaga should definitely be favored, but Patty Mills’ return will definitely be worth watching.

(Ed: As expected, Gonzaga locked up the title Monday night)

Also: Mid-Major Conference Tournament Odds

Also: BCS Tournament Odds

More: Championship Week Coverage

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