Colonial

Predictions: CAA, MAAC, Southern, WCC Finals

Greg Mengelt — Mon, 05 Mar 2012 15:22:17 -0500

Our g ame prediction guru Greg Mengelt has been on fire this year. He'll be picking every conference tournament game over the next week, including tonight's four key championship games. Read more about Championship Week at CollegeHoops.net.

CAA CHAMPIONSHIP: AT RICHMOND, VA.

(1) Drexel (27-5, 16-2) vs. (2) Virginia Commonwealth (27-6, 15-3)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 8 – Drexel 64-58. RPI: Drexel 65, VCU 66. Analysis: With 35 wins in their last 36 games combined, the Dragons and Rams should both be in the NCAA Tournament. However, neither will want to leave that up to the Selection Committee. Line: VCU -2. Pick: Virginia Commonwealth 57, Drexel 53.

MAAC CHAMPIONSHIP: AT SPRINGFIELD, MASS.

(2) Loyola (Md.) (23-8, 13-5) vs. (4) Fairfield (19-13, 12-6)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 13 – Loyola 66-63*; Feb. 12 – Fairfield 68-51. RPI: Loyola 84, Fairfield 111. Analysis: The Stags are finally playing like they were expected to all season, but Loyola has been the more consistent team through the season. Line: Fairfield -2. Pick: Loyola 68, Fairfield 64.

SOUTHERN CHAMPIONSHIP: AT ASHEVILLE, N.C.

(1S) Davidson (24-7, 16-2) vs. (3N) Western Carolina (17-17, 8-10)

Tipoff: 9 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 12 – Davidson 88-67. RPI: Davidson 68, Western Carolina 216. Analysis: Aside from Davidson, the SoCon was really bad this year. This won’t be close. Line: Davidson -12½. Pick: Davidson 85, Western Carolina 64.

WCC CHAMPIONSHIP: AT LAS VEGAS

(1) Saint Mary’s (26-5, 14-2) vs. (2) Gonzaga (25-5, 13-3)

Tipoff: 9 p.m. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 12 – Saint Mary’s 83-62; Feb. 9 – Gonzaga 73-59. RPI: Saint Mary’s 33, Gonzaga 23. Analysis: Saint Mary’s just isn’t the same team with Stephen Holt – and the Bulldogs are playing really well. Line: Gonzaga -1½. Pick: Gonzaga 80, Saint Mary’s 72.

SUMMIT LEAGUE SEMIFINALS: AT SIOUX FALLS, S.D.

(1) Oral Roberts (27-5, 17-1) vs. (5) Western Illinois (17-13, 9-9)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. TV: Midco Sports Network/Fox College Sports. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 12 – Oral Roberts 71-70 (2OT)*; Feb. 11 – Oral Roberts 61-51. RPI: Oral Roberts 41, Western Illinois 188. Analysis: Oral Roberts should be a lock for the NCAA Tournament, but the Eagles will play like their lives are on the line. Line: Oral Roberts -8. Pick: Oral Roberts 67, Western Illinois 56.

(2) South Dakota State (25-7, 15-3) vs. (6) Southern Utah (14-16, 8-10)

Tipoff: 9:30 p.m. TV: Midco Sports Network/Fox College Sports. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 5 – South Dakota State 75-68*; Feb. 4 – South Dakota State 66-56. RPI: South Dakota State 58, Southern Utah 244. Analysis: Nice comeback win for the Thunderbirds against Oakland on Sunday, but that’s as far as it goes. Line: South Dakota State -12. Pick: South Dakota State 70, Southern Utah 54.

SUN BELT SEMIFINALS: AT HOT SPRINGS, ARK.

(9) Arkansas State (13-19, 6-10) vs. (5) North Texas (16-13, 9-7)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. TV: Sun Belt Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 7 – Arkansas State 75-72; Jan. 28 – North Texas 76-64. RPI: North Texas 200, Arkansas State 243. Analysis: Arkansas State used the second-day advantage to knock off the top seed, but playing a third straight day is exponentially tougher. Line: North Texas -1. Pick: North Texas 71, Arkansas State 63.

(3) Denver (21-8, 11-5) vs. (7) Western Kentucky (12-18, 7-9)

Tipoff: 9:30 p.m. TV: Sun Belt Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 15 – Denver 78-65. RPI: Denver 84, Western Kentucky 214. Analysis: Denver’s last six wins have been by double-figures. This game will be no different. Line: Denver -8½. Pick: Denver 69, Western Kentucky 57.

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 128-94-3

Monday's Conference Tournament Primer

Raphielle Johnson — Mon, 05 Mar 2012 13:01:31 -0500

WCC: #1 Saint Mary's vs. #2 Gonzaga, 9:00 p.m. (ESPN)

The top two teams in the WCC meet in Las Vegas, and it should be fun as the two teams don't care much for each other. Gonzaga won 11 straight WCC regular season titles before Saint Mary's grabbed this year's crown, and that should spice things up even more. Mark Few's Bulldogs played very well on Saturday night in their semifinal win over BYU, with Kevin Pangos going off for 30 points to lead the way. The Gaels had a little more trouble in their semifinal, as a talented San Francisco team gave them all they wanted before Randy Bennett's team pulled away late.

With second and third-round games being played in Portland this season, the winner of the WCC's automatic bid could lay claim to a protected seed there given the struggles of the Pac-12. Saint Mary's will look to counter Pangos with veteran point guard Matthew Dellavedova, who can also fill it up when left alone on the perimeter. He's been a constant for the Gaels in both meetings with the Bulldogs, which the two teams split with the home team winning both. The Australian averaged 23 points per game against Gonzaga this season, but the key for Saint Mary's will be how effective forward Rob Jones can be.

Jones scored just two points in the Saint Mary's win over Gonzaga, with the Gaels being able to withstand that thanks to 17 points and ten boards from redshirt freshman Brad Waldow. But in the 73-59 loss in Spokane, Jones and Waldow were kept in check on the glass (ten combined rebounds to 21 in the first meeting), and guard Stephen Holt went scoreless as well. Page is going to be a key figure on the perimeter tonight, because it's not just Pangos that the Gaels have to worry about.

Junior wing Guy Landry Edi has reached double figures in two of the last three games, most recently scoring 11 against BYU. The athleticism that both he and freshman Gary Bell have can make for tough matchups, especially when the Bulldogs can get out and run. Add in forwards Elias Harris and Robert Sacre, and Saint Mary's will have multiple areas they need to take care of in order to win. Pangos scored 27 points in the second meeting between the two but the contributions of those two can't be overlooked, as they combined for 22 points and 19 rebounds. Gonzaga's going to need more of the same if they're to take another title back to Spokane.

CAA: #1 Drexel vs. #2 VCU, 7:00 p.m. (ESPN)
When two teams with 27 wins apiece still aren't considered a lock for the NCAA tournament there's no real need to state just how important that title game may be. That's the situation that the top two seeds in the CAA find themselves in going into Monday's title game, because while both have the look of a tournament team on the court the resume is considered by some to be lacking when it comes to strength of schedule numbers. Drexel won the lone regular season meeting (64-58) but that game was played way back on January 8th, and both teams have improved a great deal since then.

Freshman Damion Lee has been outstanding for the Dragons, helping out the likes of Chris Fouch, Samme Givens and Frantz Massenat. VCU's youngsters have become more comfortable in their roles, as has senior wing Bradford Burgess. There will be a lot on the line and a nice contrast of styles as well, with the Rams looking to pressure all 94 feet and Bruiser Flint's squad playing a half-court defense befitting of his name. The winner won't have to spend the next six days worrying about their fate, while the loser may have to endure a few sleepless nights.

MAAC: #4 Fairfield vs. #2 Loyola (MD), 7:00 p.m. (ESPN2)
Fairfield pulled off the upset of the tournament as they beat top-seed Iona in the semis, but even with Derek Needham out for the season (broken foot) was it really that big of an upset? Sydney Johnson's Stags are talented and they have depth, led by senior forwards Ryan Olander and Rakim Sanders. Houston transfer Desmond Wade has played well at the point, and a team that struggled to find its was under a first-year head coach early in the season has rounded into form at just the right time. As for Jimmy Patsos' Greyhounds, they've got depth as well and guard Dylon Cormier is one of the best players in the MAAC. Loyola also features the versatile Erik Etherly, Robert Olson and MAAC 6th Man of the Year Justin Drummond. Look for this one to be a tight affair as the two teams split their regular season meetings with the road team winning both.

MAC: # 12 Northern Illinois at # 5 Eastern Michigan, 7:00 p.m.
# 9 Ball State at # 8 Western Michigan, 7:00 p.m.
# 10 Miami at # 7 Toledo, 7:00 p.m.
# 11 Central Michigan at # 6 Bowling Green, 7:00 p.m.

The Mid-American Conference changed up their tournament format before the season, doing away with divisional seeding and giving the top two seeds byes to the semifinals. That means we won't see either Akron or Buffalo until Friday night, and six of the eight teams playing in the first round come from the West Division. Eastern Michigan was the lone team in the West to finish with a winning conference record, which is a testament to what first-year head coach Rob Murphy has been able to do with the program. But the second place team in the division, Toledo, needs to be careful with ten-seed Miami (OH), as forward Julian Mavunga ranks among the best players in the MAC. The four winners advance to Cleveland, but it's difficult to figure out if any of these teams can truly do some damage once they get there.

SoCon: #3N Western Carolina vs. #1S Davidson, 9:00 p.m. (ESPN2)
Western Carolina has won seven straight games, which makes them a dangerous foe for top-seed Davidson. However, Bob McKillop's team has been the class of the SoCon and with forwards Jake Cohen and De'Mon Brooks leading the way it's easy to see why. Harouna Mutombo leads four Catamounts in double figures with an average of 13.7 points per game, and that balance is going to be key if WCU is to have any shot at knocking off the Wildcats. Davidson won the lone regular season meeting 88-67, outscoring the Catamounts by 18 from beyond the arc and by 15 from the foul line. Those margins need to be close tonight.

Summit League: #1 Oral Roberts vs. #4 Western Illinois, 7:00 p.m.
#2 South Dakota State vs.#6 Southern Utah, 9:30 p.m.

Southern Utah is the lone team not in the top four to advance to the semis as they knocked off three-seed Oakland on Sunday night. The Thunderbirds now get to take on South Dakota State, who is led by guard Nate Wolters. Wolters handles his many responsibilities very well in leading the Jackrabbits, and if Southern Utah doesn't have an answer for him it's going to be a long night for them. SDSU averages just two more possessions per game but they're far more efficient, and they average 12 more points per game as well. In the first semi top-seed Oral Roberts takes on Western Illinois, a team they swept during the regular season but their win at WUI was by just one point. Dominique Morrison shot just 2-for-11 from the field in their quarterfinal on Saturday, but he did score 27 points in the first meeting between these two.

Sun Belt: #9 Arkansas State vs. #5 North Texas, 7:00 p.m. (Sun Belt Network - Summit Arena)
#3 Denver vs. #7 Western Kentucky, 9:30 p.m. (Sun Belt Network - Summit Arena)

Neither of the top two seeds reached the semis with both Middle Tennessee and UALR falling in Sunday's quarterfinals, which in theory opens the door for three-seed Denver. But given the nature of the Sun Belt tournament all that did was guarantee the Pioneers the right to wear their home whites the rest of the event. Joe Scott's Pioneers take on WKU in the second semifinal, and Ray Harper's Hilltoppers are playing well as they've won four straight. Guard Derrick Gordon is going to be a star in the Sun Belt, but the Hilltoppers dropped their lone meeting with Denver by 13 (78-65).

The first semifinal features North Texas, who more than a few people picked to win the conference tournament based on the presence of Tony Mitchell. Mitchell averages 14.8 points and 10.9 rebounds per game, and it's a safe assumption that the Missouri transfer will have Arkansas State's attention from the start. John Brady's Red Wolves knocked off top-seed Middle Tennessee, but they can struggle offensively.

George Mason vs VCU: CAA Semifinals Preview

CHN — Sun, 04 Mar 2012 14:09:28 -0500

#2 VCU (26-6) vs. # 3 George Mason (24-8)

By: Robert Canady

When: Sunday 4:30 p.m.

It seems it’s always been Carolina-Duke, Michigan St.-Michigan, and Kentucky-Louisville…now please add VCU-George Mason to that list. All are in state rivalries and for years the first three matchups have had national followings, in addition to their regional significance. However, until 2006 most people outside of Virginia couldn’t have told you where either Mason or VCU were located, or more importantly why you were asking.

That has all changed since both schools have made Final Four appearances since 2006. George Mason first put the school and the CAA conference on the map with its final four run in the 2005-06 season. Many bracketology experts blasted the at-large selection of the Patriots at the time.

Mason entered the tournament as an 11 seed and its run of victories over such blue-blood programs as Michigan St, North Carolina and Connecticut to reach the Final Four brought the school and team into the national spotlight. The Patriots ultimately fell to Florida in the semifinals, however they had become the new mid-major Cinderella.

VCU continued the conferences move into the national spotlight with its run to the Final Four last year. For the first time in conference history the CAA received three invitations to the tournament. VCU played in the newly named First Four round and defeated USC to advance to the full field of 64. From there VCU beat Georgetown, Purdue and Florida St before “Shakaing” (as in VCU head coach Shaka Smart) the basketball world by defeating No.1 seed Kansas to become the second CAA team in five years to reach the Final Four.

GMU and VCU have become as big of instate rivals as any of the previously mentioned matchups. Today’s matchup will be a rematch of last year’s semifinal in which VCU upset the No.1 seeded Patriots 79-63. The two teams met in the tournament championship game in 2009, as the top two seeds. VCU prevailed in that matchup as well in a 71-50 rout.

The two teams split this seasons games each winning at home. Sherrod Wright broke VCU’s heart on Valentine’s Day with a 35 foot running buzzer beater for a 62-61 victory that led to the obligatory storming of the court by the Mason fanatics. VCU avenged that loss in a regular season finale on February 25^th by a score of 89-77.

Both teams will enter today’s semifinals on emotional highs. Mason won a thriller 61-59 against Georgia State Saturday night when Bryon Allen made a driving reverse layup with 3.4 seconds left in the game. VCU used a dominating 2^nd half against Northeastern University that included 16 points from guard Rob Brandenburg to pull away from a 26-26 halftime deadlock.

VCU will use the Shaka Smart trademarked term of HAVOC in an effort to offset George Masons senior leadership of CAA Player of the Year Ryan Pearson and forward Mike Morrison who coach Paul Hewitt referred to after the Georgia St. game as “the smartest player I’ve ever had.”

VCU entered the 2011-12 season as the 9^th youngest team in the country after losing 68% of its scoring and 58% of its minutes played from last year’s Final Four team. However, they have meshed into the nation’s best team when it comes to steals, leading the country with an average of 10.6 per game.

The Richmond Coliseum serves as a neutral site for the tournament; however it has a decided home court feel when VCU plays. Located just 1.5 miles from the VCU campus, the sellout crowd of 11,200 was a sea of Ram gold, with a decent amount of George Mason yellow making their presence felt as well. Today’s matchup will no doubt be another chapter in what is quickly becoming a national best seller.

Notes:

In today’s other semifinal No. 1 Drexel faces two time defending tournament champion Old Dominion. Drexel defeated UNCW 59-47 in the first quarterfinal of the day. Old Dominion used a relentless fast break style of play to get past Delaware 88-74.

The Championship game between today’s winners will be Monday night on ESPN.

Sunday's Conference Tournament Primer

Raphielle Johnson — Sun, 04 Mar 2012 11:00:46 -0500

Missouri Valley - Title Game
#4 Illinois State vs. #2 Creighton, 2:00 p.m. (CBS)

The eyes of many bubble teams and their fan bases will be focused on St. Louis and the title game of the MVC tournament. The reason why: Illinois State, a team that was unlikely to be an at-large selection, is 40 minutes away from grabbing the Valley's automatic bid and making it a three-bid league. Standing in the way of the Redbirds is two-seed Creighton, who looked outstanding in their 99-71 win over Evansville and will be headed to the Big Dance with or without the automatic bid.

The problem for Illinois State, who beat Wichita State 65-64 on Saturday to reach the final, is that they've been unable to slow down the Bluejays in either meeting. Creighton averaged 94.5 points per game in two wins over the Redbirds, most recently handing ISU a 102-74 beating in Omaha on February 1st. Doug McDermott led six players in double figures that game with 25 points, and in the two meetings Creighton has shot 57.1% (87-78 win at ISU) and 56.4% from the field.

Tim Jankovich's team has improved since that loss on the defensive end of the floor as only three teams have shot better than 45% from the field since, but the Redbirds' improved defense will be tested this afternoon. Big man Jackie Carmichael has been outstanding all season long, and his physical play is a big reason why Illinois State has been able to reach this point. But he and Tyler Brown are going to need their teammates to step up if they're to have a shot at knocking off this powerful Creighton squad, and Nic Moore's 12 points on Saturday could be a step in the right direction in that regard.

In addition to McDermott the Bluejays have Gregory Echenique inside, and on the perimeter players such as Antoine Young, Grant Gibbs and Jahenns Manigat all have the ability to make plays. The offensive production is rarely a question for Greg McDermott's team, but how well they play defensively will ultimately determine how far they can go in the NCAA tournament. If Creighton can clamp down defensively the upset bid becomes even tougher for Illinois State, but they've got a shot. And at this point in the season that's the least a team can ask for.

America East - Semifinals
#1 Stony Brook vs. #4 Albany, 5:02 p.m. (ESPN3)
#2 Vermont vs. #6 Hartford, 7:15 p.m. (ESPN3)

Three of the top four seeds advanced to the semifinals in West Hartford, with the host Hawks being the lone exception. They were able to slow down a potent Boston University attack, winning 53-49, and at 9-21 on the season John Gallagher's Hawks really don't have anything to lose. But beating a Vermont team that swept the regular season series, winning both games by double digits, will be very tough to do. The Catamounts scored just 14 points in the first half of their 50-40 win over Maine on Saturday but with the likes of Matt Glass and Luke Apfeld don't expect that to happen again.

The first semifinal should be highly entertaining, as regular season champ Stony Brook takes on four-seed Albany, who has the league's leading scorer in Gerardo Suero. Suero, a guy many thought would be Player of the Year, can flat-out light it up and if Logan Aronhalt is effective the Great Danes can be a tough out. Steve Pikiell's Seawolves have five players averaging at least eight points per game with Bryan Dougher leading the way, and in Tommy Brenton they've got the league's best defender.

CAA - Semifinals
#1 Drexel vs. #4 Old Dominion, 2 p.m. (CAA-TV)
#2 VCU vs. #3 George Mason, 4:30 p.m. (CAA-TV)

There's no underestimating how important these two games are from an NCAA tournament standpoint, because while the chances of a second bid are slim given the troubles of bubble teams throughout the country the possibility for the CAA remains. Drexel won the regular season title outright and keeping in mind UAB's selection last season that achievement may hold weight with the selection committee. Frantz Massenat and the Dragons take on an ODU team that played arguably its best offensive game of the season on Saturday, but don't expect offensive fireworks given how good both teams have been defensively. The rubber match between VCU and George Mason will most likely determine the team with the best shot at an at-large should Drexel end up with the automatic bid, but more importantly the winner would control their own fate with a shot at the title on Monday night. Mason escaped Georgia State on Saturday night while VCU was able to take care of Northeastern.

Metro Atlantic - Semifinals
#4 Fairfield vs. #1 Iona, 2:00 p.m. (ESPN3)
#2 Loyola (MD) vs. #6 Siena, 4:30 p.m. (ESPN3)

Similar to America East the six-seed is the one "crashing" the party in the MAAC, as a Siena team that goes six deep knocked off three-seed Manhattan in Saturday's quarterfinals. Owen Wignot sent the game into overtime with a three-pointer with eight seconds remaining, and senior Brandon Walters picked a good time to play arguably the best game of his career. The question now is whether or not Mitch Buonaguro's team has enough left in the tank (especially with Evan Hymes battling a knee injury) to battle one of the MAAC's deepest teams in Loyola. Erik Etherly and Dylon Cormier may lead the way, but the Greyhounds can also call on the likes of Robert Olson and MAAC 6th Man of the Year Justin Drummond when needed.

The first semifinal matches the two teams expected to fight it out for the regular season title in top-seed Iona and Fairfield. It took the Stags a little longer than expected to mesh given the addition of Rakim Sanders and Desmond Wade, not to mention head coach Sydney Johnson just arriving by way of Princeton. The loss of guard Derek Needham hurts but Fairfield has the depth needed to navigate such a loss. The Gaels are deep as well, led by seniors Scott Machado and Mike Glover, and with their run last season ending in the MAAC title game there's going to be motivation to take care of business. If Iona can defend at a solid level they have more than enough offensive talent to advance to Monday's final.

NEC - Semifinals
#3 Robert Morris at #2 Wagner, Noon (MSG/FCS)
#5 Quinnipiac at #1 LIU Brooklyn, 6:00 p.m. (MSG/FCS)

The battle between the Colonials and Seahawks will be entertaining, especially when considering a likely matchup between RMU's Velton Jones and Wagner's Kenneth Ortiz. Jones leads the Colonials in scoring with an average of 16.4 points per game, and Ortiz is one of the NEC's best defenders. Both teams are deep, and with Latif Rivers and Tyler Murray also at his disposal on the perimeter Wagner head coach Dan Hurley won't lack for options. The same goes for RMU's Andy Toole, who also has sophomore Coron Williams and freshman wing Lucky Jones. RMU has been the better rebounding team this season, so if Jones and Russell Johnson can control things on the glass they can leave Staten Island with a win.

In the other semifinal high-scoring LIU Brooklyn hosts Quinnipiac, who have one of the league's best scoring guards in James Johnson. The key for QU however could be how well Ike Azotam does inside against Julian Boyd and Jamal Olasewere. The Bobcats are the best rebounding team in the NEC and Azotam is a big reason why, but Boyd and Olasewere can both step out on the perimeter and draw him away from the basket. Add in guards Jason Brickman and C.J. Garner and the Blackbirds have a rotation that's been tough to slow down all season long.

Southern - Semifinals
#1N UNCG vs. #3N Western Carolina, 6:00 p.m.
#1S Davidson vs. #2N Elon, 8:30 p.m.

Three of the four teams still alive in the SoCon hail from the North Division, which may be seen as a surprise based on how the regular season played out. Wes Miller's Spartans have played so well since he took over that the youngest head coach in America was named SoCon Coach of the Year, and with Trevis Simpson leading the way UNCG can reach the final. But the Spartans will face a Western Carolina squad that's won six straight, and they looked very good in their 82-59 win over Wofford on Saturday afternoon. In the other semifinal the clear favorite to win the automatic bid, Davidson, takes on an Elon team led by Jack Isenbarger. The question for the Phoenix is whether or not they have enough inside to deal with Jake Cohen and De'Mon Brooks, but then again no one's really had an answer for these two within the league.

Summit League - Quarterfinals
#4 Western Illinois vs. #5 North Dakota State, 7:00 p.m.
#3 Oakland vs. #6 Southern Utah, 9:30 p.m.

The top two seeds, Oral Roberts and South Dakota State, advanced on Saturday night and Sunday's slate features one of the country's most prolific scorers in Oakland's Reggie Hamilton. Hamilton averaged 25.5 points per game in two wins over the Thunderbirds, and Travis Bader is a capable scorer as well. Jackson Stevenett leads four SUU players in double figures with an average of 14.1 points per game, and that balance combined with better defense on Hamilton is the formula for a Southern Utah win. North Dakota State and Western Illinois each have three players averaging double figures in scoring, and guards Taylor Braun (NDSU) and Ceola Clark (WIU) are both capable of leading their teams to the victory. The winners will take on ORU and South Dakota State in Monday's semifinals.

Sun Belt - Quarterfinals
#1 Middle Tennessee vs. #9 Arkansas State, 7:00 p.m. (Sun Belt Network - Summit Arena)
#4 Louisiana-Lafayette vs. #5 North Texas, 7:15 p.m. (Convention Center Court)
#2 UALR vs. #7 Western Kentucky, 9:30 p.m. (Sun Belt Network - Summit Arena)
#3 Denver vs. #6 South Alabama, 9:45 p.m. (Convention Center Court)

The top five teams take the court for the first time in the Sun Belt tournament, and while Middle Tennessee has to be considered the favorite given how well they played throughout the season they won't go unchallenged. Denver put together an outstanding season thanks to the tandem of Brian Stafford and Chris Udofia, and if there's a player who can go on a run and make the tournament his own personal playground that would be North Texas' Tony Mitchell. UALR should also be in the conversation as Steve Shields' team won the automatic bid last season, and they're the two seed entering this year's tournament.

Quarterfinals Predictions: AE, Big Sky, CAA, MAAC, SoCo, Summit

Greg Mengelt — Sat, 03 Mar 2012 13:12:21 -0500

Our g ame prediction guru Greg Mengelt has been on fire this year. He'll be picking every conference tournament game over the next 2 weeks. Read more about Championship Week at CollegeHoops.net.

AMERICA EAST QUARTERFINALS: AT WEST HARTFORD, CONN.

(1) Stony Brook (20-8, 14-2) vs. (8) Maryland-Baltimore County (4-26, 3-13)

Tipoff: 12:05 p.m. TV: AE All-Access Live Video. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 11 – Stony Brook 89-49*, Feb. 9 – Stony Brook 80-68. RPI: Stony Brook 151, Maryland-Baltimore County 334. Analysis: It will be hard for Stony Brook to cover because its starters could be resting by halftime. Line: Stony Brook -3. Pick: Stony Brook 73, Maryland-Baltimore County 56.

(4) Albany (18-13, 9-7) vs. (5) New Hampshire (13-15, 7-9)

Tipoff: 2:15 p.m. TV: AE All-Access Live Video. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 11 – Albany 86-63; Feb. 9 – New Hampshire 69-64. RPI: Albany 232, New Hampshire 303. Analysis: New Hampshire has nice balance, but Albany has a solid go-to scorer in Gerardo Suero for the stretch run. Line: Albany -3. Pick: Albany 71, New Hampshire 64.

(2) Vermont (20-11, 13-3) vs. (7) Maine (12-16, 6-10)

Tipoff: 6:05 p.m. TV: AE All-Access Live Video. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 16 – Vermont 79-65; Feb. 6 – Vermont 73-63. RPI: Vermont 161, Maine 281. Analysis: Vermont is a serious contender to win this tournament and secure an NCAA bid. Line: Vermont -9. Pick: Vermont 75, Maine 63.

(3) Boston U. (16-15, 12-4) vs. (6) Hartford (8-21, 7-9)

Tipoff: 8:15 p.m. TV: AE All-Access Live Video. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 22 – Boston U. 65-46*; Feb. 25 – Boston U. 64-55. RPI: Boston U. 188, Hartford 308. Analysis: Curious line after the Terriers whipped Hartford twice. It’s concerning, but you still have to go with BU. Line: Boston U. -3. Pick: Boston U. 66, Hartford 55.

BIG SKY QUARTERFINALS: AT CAMPUS SITES

(5) Idaho State (9-20, 7-9) at (4) Eastern Washington (14-16, 8-8)

Tipoff: 5 p.m. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 23 – Eastern Washington 85-78*; Feb. 28 – Eastern Washington 77-64. RPI: Idaho State 280, Eastern Washington 211. Analysis: If familiarity breeds contempt, this one should be contention. It’s the third time the two sides have played in two weeks. Line: Eastern Washington -7½. Pick: Eastern Washington 72, Idaho State 65.

(6) Montana State (12-16, 7-9) at (3) Portland State (16-13, 10-6)

Tipoff: 10 p.m. Regular-season meetings: Dec. 30 – Montana State 86-73; Jan. 26 – Montana State 70-65*. RPI: Montana State 277, Portland State 176. Analysis: The Bobcats gave Portland State two of its six losses, but the Vikings will find a way to get it done in a close one in Portland. Line: Portland State -7½. Pick: Portland State 76, Montana State 70.

COLONIAL ATHLETIC QUARTERFINALS: AT RICHMOND, VA.

(1) Drexel (25-5, 16-2) vs. (9) UNC-Wilmington (10-20, 5-13)

Tipoff: Noon. TV: CSN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 14 – Drexel 79-57*. RPI: Drexel 63, Wilmington 213. Analysis: Wilmington took advantage of a beat up James Madison squad on Friday. No such luck today. Line: Drexel -12½. Pick: Drexel 73, Wilmington 53.

(4) Old Dominion (19-12, 13-5) vs. (5) Delaware (18-12, 12-6)

Tipoff: Approx. 2:30 p.m. TV: CSN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 11 – Old Dominion 68-66 (OT)*. RPI: Old Dominion 115, Delaware 143. Analysis: ODU is the better team – but not by a whole lot. Line: Old Dominion -6. Pick: Old Dominion 60, Delaware 56.

(2) Virginia Commonwealth (25-6, 15-3) vs. (9) Northeastern (13-16, 9-9)

Tipoff: 6 p.m. TV: CSN. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 4 – VCU 59-56. RPI: VCU 61, Northeastern 179. Analysis: The Rams defense will give Delaware fits and force double-digit turnovers and convert them into points. Line: VCU -12. Pick: VCU 69, Northeastern 56.

(3) George Mason (23-8, 14-4) vs. (6) Georgia State/Hofstra (20-10, 11-7)

Tipoff: Approx. 8:30 p.m. TV: CSN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 7 – George Mason 61-58. RPI: George Mason 84, Georgia State 147. Analysis: This is one of the strangest lines I’ve ever seen, but GMU is the better team – and the Patriots are desperate for a win. Line: Georgia State -1. Pick: George Mason 71, Georgia State 58.

METRO ATLANTIC QUARTERFINALS: AT SPRINGFIELD, MASS.

(4) Fairfield (17-13, 12-6) vs. (5) Rider (13-18, 10-8)

Tipoff: 2 p.m. TV: ESPN3. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 16 – Fairfield 61-52; Feb. 26 – Rider 65-62. RPI: Fairfield 128, Rider 198. Analysis: The Stags have lost 3 of 4, but they have enough talent to win the MAAC’s NCAA bid. Line: Fairfield -8. Pick: Fairfield 61, Rider 51.

(1) Iona (24-6, 15-3) vs. (8) Marist (14-17, 7-11)

Tipoff: 4:30 p.m. TV: ESPN3. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 8 – Iona 100-76*; Feb. 12 – Iona 83-74. RPI: Iona 44, Marist 225. Analysis: The Red Foxes were a different team in the second half of the season, but do they have enough to stay close against Iona’s high-powered offense? Probably not. Line: Iona -15½. Pick: Iona 90, Marist 74.

(2) Loyola (Md.) (21-8, 13-5) vs. (7) Niagara (14-18, 8-10)

Tipoff: 7:30 p.m. TV: ESPN3. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 2 – Niagara 66-61*; Jan. 27 – Loyola 69-57*. RPI: Loyola 86, Niagara 206. Analysis: With the advantage of already having played a tourney game, Niagara can keep it fairly close. Line: Loyola -7. Pick: Loyola 67, Niagara 62.

(3) Manhattan (20-11, 12-6) vs. (6) Siena (13-16, 8-10)

Tipoff: 9:30 p.m. TV: ESPN3. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 14 – Manhattan 72-53; Feb. 14 – Siena 70-64. RPI: Manhattan 142, Siena 239. Analysis: Expect the Jaspers to be a serious player in this tournament. Line: Manhattan -7. Pick: Manhattan 67, Siena 54.

SOUTHERN CONFERENCE QUARTERFINALS: AT ASHEVILLE, N.C.

(1N) UNC-Greensboro (12-18, 10-8) vs. (5N) Appalachian State (13-17, 7-11)

Tipoff: Noon. TV: ESPN3. Regular-season meetings: Dec. 1 – Appalachian State 78-64; Jan. 26 – Greensboro 77-73 (OT). RPI: Greensboro 227, Appalachian State 252. Analysis: If the Mountaineers are good enough to beat Charleston by 12 points, they’re good enough to beat Greensboro. Line: Greensboro -7. Pick: Appalachian State 77, UNC-Greensboro 66.

(2S) Wofford (19-12, 12-6) vs. (3N) Western Carolina (15-17, 8-10)

Tipoff: 2:30 p.m. TV: ESPN3. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 7 – Western Carolina 67-57; Jan. 30 – Wofford 82-56. RPI: Wofford 170, Western Carolina 241. Analysis: Wofford has won 4-of-5 since a 3-game losing streak in early February and the Terriers should do it again. Line: Wofford -5. Pick: Wofford 73, Western Carolina 66.

(1S) Davidson (16-2, 22-7) vs. (5S) Furman (15-15, 8-10)

Tipoff: 6 p.m. TV: ESPN3. Regular-season meetings: Dec. 3 – Davidson 86-65; Feb. 1 – Davidson 71-53*. RPI: Davidson 67, Furman 245. Analysis: The Wildcats are ready to roll through this tournament. Line: Davidson -11½. Pick: Davidson 84, Furman 65.

(2N) Elon (14-15, 9-9) vs. (3S) Georgia Southern (15-14, 12-6)

Tipoff: 8:30 p.m. TV: ESPN3. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 5 – Georgia Southern 69-63*. RPI: Elon 243, Georgia Southern 194. Analysis: Tough one to call, but Southern may have found itself in the second half of Friday’s win over Chattanooga. Line: Georgia Southern -1. Pick: Georgia Southern 67, Elon 58.

SUMMIT LEAGUE QUARTERFINALS: AT SIOUX FALLS, S.D.

(1) Oral Roberts (26-5, 17-1) vs. (8) IPFW (11-18, 5-13)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. TV: Midco Sports Net/Fox College Sports. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 19 – Oral Roberts 65-54; Feb. 15 – Oral Roberts 75-71*. RPI: Oral Roberts 43, IPFW 279. Analysis: ORU played a lot of tough games down the stretch and this one will be no different. Line: Oral Roberts -13½. Pick: Oral Roberts 66, IPFW 57.

(2) South Dakota State (24-7, 15-3) vs. (7) IUPUI (14-17, 7-11)

Tipoff: 9:30 p.m. TV: Midco Sports Net/Fox College Sports. Regular-season meetings: Dec. 1 – South Dakota State 97-93 (OT)*; Feb. 25 – South Dakota State 75-64. RPI: South Dakota State 57, IUPUI 202. Analysis: The Jackrabbits should have a bit of a home crowd advantage in Sioux Falls, but talented Jaguar star Alex Young won’t let it get out of hand. Line: South Dakota State -8½. Pick: South Dakota State 79, IUPUI 68.

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 100-69-2

Saturday's Conference Tournament Primer

Raphielle Johnson — Sat, 03 Mar 2012 10:36:52 -0500

Three tickets to the NCAA tournament will be punched on Saturday, beginning with the Big South title game matching seven-seed VMI and regular season champion UNC Asheville. Eddie Biedenbach's Bulldogs have avoided the turmoil on the opposite side of the bracket, which saw both Coastal Carolina and Campbell fall in the quarterfinals. Duggar Baucom's Keydets were the ones who knocked off CCU, as they shot an impressive 14-for-28 from three in their 85-68 win over the Chanticleers. VMI would follow that up with a 75-55 win over Winthrop on Thursday, limiting the Eagles to 32.8% shooting and forcing 15 turnovers.

A repeat of either of those performances will be tougher to come by against UNC Asheville, who relies on the Big South's best perimeter tandem on the offensive end of the floor. Matt Dickey and J.P. Primm average a combined 31.8 points and 7.6 assists per game on the season, and if one struggles the other is more than capable of picking up the slack. The Bulldogs aren't just a two-man attack however, as senior guard Chris Stephenson is scoring just over 13 points a game and forward Jeremy Atkinson adds 11.5 and 6.7 boards. VMI has Stan Okoye and Kenny Gabriel to rely on while Jordan Weethee has shot the ball well this week.

Both teams can clearly score, with UNC Asheville averaging 81 points per game and VMI 80, but the Bulldogs have been the more efficient team with their average of 1.1 4 points per possession. The two regular season meetings were both close, high-scoring affairs with the Bulldogs winning both by a combined 12 points.

VMI can force turnovers with the best of them and they pestered the Bulldogs into 18 of them in the second meeting. But the Keydets can't afford to turn the ball over themselves, something they did in both meetings (17 apiece). Take care of the basketball and VMI's got a shot to go dancing, but if they can't they'll be headed back to Lexington without the crown.

The OVC title game is the one most bubble teams will be tuned into (so long as they're not playing themselves), as Murray State is going to the Big Dance with or without an automatic bid. A Tennessee State win would make the OVC a two-bid league, and given the fact that the Tigers beat Murray State in their gym that's not exactly far-fetched.

Robert Covington is one of the toughest matchups in the OVC, and he put up 24 and 15 in the Tigers' 80-62 loss to Murray State on February 23rd. John Cooper's Tigers have been balanced offensively so it's not just a one-man show, and the same goes for the Isaiah Canaan-led Racers. Donte Poole accounted for 25 and seven rebounds in their win over Tennessee Tech, and Ivan Aska and Ed Daniel are two guys who thrive in physical games inside.

Last but not least there's the Atlantic Sun final which matches top-seed Belmont and six-seed Florida Gulf Goast, who are in their first season of full Division I membership. North Florida entered last season's title game in the same spot as the Eagles, but Belmont was having no part of a "storybook" finish for their opponent. Rick Byrd's Bruins haven't been as dominant as they were last season but they're still the class of the A-Sun with Kerron Johnson and big men Mick Hedgepeth and Scott Saunders leading the way.

FGCU has withstood two off performances from Brett Comer but they need him to be at his best if they're to dethrone the reigning champs. The good news for the Eagles is that big men Chase Fieler and Eddie Murray have played well this week, and another solid outing from them will give FGCU a chance.

Atlantic Sun - Title Game
#1 Belmont vs. #6 FGCU, 7:00 p.m. (ESPN2)

Big South - Title game
#7 VMI at #1 UNC Asheville, 12:00 p.m. (ESPN2)

Ohio Valley - Title Game
#1 Murray State vs. #2 Tennessee State, 2:00 p.m. (ESPN2)

America East - Quarterfinals (at University of Hartford)
#1 Stony Brook vs. #9 Binghamton, 12:05 p.m. (AE All-Access Live Video)
#4 Albany vs. #5 New Hampshire, *2:15 p.m. (AE All-Access Live Video)
#2 Vermont vs. #7 Maine, 6:05 p.m. (AE All-Access Live Video)
#3 Boston U. vs. #6 Hartford, *8:15 p.m. (AE All-Access Live Video)

Binghamton kicked things off in America East on Thursday night with a win over UMBC but the climb gets much steeper for Mark Macon's Bearcats as they take on regular season champ Stony Brook. The Seawolves scored just 67.4 points per game but they're one of the league's better defensive teams, limiting opponents to 59.1 points and 0.93 points per possession. If Robert Mansell and Ben Dickinson can shake free from the likes of league Defensive Player of the Year Tommy Brenton maybe Binghamton can hang around, but it doesn't look promising.

The 4/5 game should be interesting to watch due to the presence of Albany's Gerardo Suero, a junior guard who is one of the nation's best scorers and a guy some feel was robbed in the America East Player of the Year voting. UNH can counter with a solid guard of their own in Alvin Abreu, but slowing down Suero is a task that won't be done with ease. Also keep an eye on Albany's Logan Aronholt, who's been dealing with a knee injury that's forced him to sit for two games and play just nine minutes apiece in two others over the last four games.

Big Sky - Quarterfinals
#5 Idaho State at #4 Eastern Washington, 5:00 p.m.
#6 Montana State at #3 Portland State, 10:00 p.m.

The winners in the Big Sky will move on to play Montana and Weber State next week, and given how tight the race for those final tournament spots was these two contests shouldn't lack in the entertainment department. idaho State features one of the league's hottest scorers in Kenny McGowen, but the EWU trio of Cliff Colimon, Cliff Ederaine and Colin Chiverton will be tough to stop. Add in the fact that ISU is 4-12 on the road this season and it could be a tough day for the Bengals in Cheney.

As for Montana State, the Bobcats lost leading scorer Xavier Blount for the season due to injuries suffered in an altercation and it's been a struggle offensively ever since. They visit a Portland State team that hasn't had such issues thanks to Chehales Tapscott and Charles Odum, which means it could be a tough day on the road for Montana State.

Colonial - Quarterfinals
#1 Drexel vs. #9 UNCW, Noon (CAA-TV)
#4 Old Dominion vs. #5 Delaware, 2:30 p.m. (CAA-TV)
#2 VCU vs. #7 Northeastern, 6 p.m. (CAA-TV)
#3 George Mason vs. #6 Georgia State, 8:30 p.m. (CAA-TV)

The "big guns" in the CAA make their debut in this season's tournament, beginning with regular season champion Drexel taking on UNC Wilmington. The question surrounding the league this weekend is whether or not they can find a second NCAA tournament bid, with the Dragons, VCU and George Mason all owning impressive overall records (Drexel and VCU have won 25 games while George Mason has 23 wins). But the computer profiles are a bit lacking in the eyes of some, which could limit the CAA to just one bid come Selection Sunday.

CAA Player of the Year Ryan Pearson has the ability to put George Mason on his back and lead them to the title, but the same can be said for VCU's Bradford Burgess and Drexel's Frantz Massenat. Also keep an eye on four-seed ODU, led by senior Kent Bazemore. The Monarchs have a tough matchup to deal with in Delaware's Jamelle Hagins, but Blaine Taylor's squad has been solid defensively for much of the season.

Horizon League - Semifinals (at Valparaiso)
#3 Detroit vs. #2 Cleveland State, 6 p.m. (ESPN3)
#5 Butler at #1 Valparaiso, 8:30 p.m. (ESPNU)

The talk following Friday's quarterfinals was whether or not this was the beginning of another March run for Butler, but it would be wise to remember that Valparaiso is the regular season champion. The Crusaders won both regular season meetings: by six at Hinkle Fieldhouse on December 3rd and by 12 (71-59) in the regular season finale for both last Friday. The time off has also given forward Kevin Van Wijk more time to rest his knee, and that should help Bryce Drew's team along with playing at home. Horizon League Player of the Year Ryan Broekhoff was quiet in the second meeting but Van Wijk led the way with 18 and Will Bogan is a solid offensive piece as well.

Butler will need another solid night from Roosevelt Jones and Khyle Marshall along with Andrew Smith if they're to win at Valpo. The first semifinal matches Detroit, who looked very good offensively in their win over Youngstown State, and a Cleveland State team that's struggled since D'Aundray Brown went down. If Brown can go and be effective the Vikings can definitely win, but if he's limited or can't go they likely won't have enough weapons to keep up with the Titans.

Metro Atlantic - Quarterfinals
#4 Fairfield vs. #5 Rider, 2:00 p.m. (ESPN3)
#1 Iona vs. #8 Marist, 4:30 p.m. (ESPN3)
#2 Loyola (MD) vs. #7 Niagara, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN3)
#3 Manhattan vs. #6 Siena, 9:30 p.m. (ESPN3)

The first game of the day in the MAAC tournament is the most intriguing, as not only is the battle between Fairfield and Rider a contrast in styles but both teams have the ability to make a run this weekend. The Stags lost guard Derek Needham for the season due to a broken foot but they've got enough depth to navigate his loss, and in forward Rakim Sanders the Stags have one of the league's toughest covers. Tommy Dempsey's Broncs didn't play as well as expected during the regular season but with weapons such as Novar Gadson, Jeff Jones and Jonathon Thompson, Rider is more than capable of winning a shootout. But can they guard well enough to stick around Springfield for a few days? That's the big question.

Loyola has to be wary of Niagara given the scoring ability of freshmen Juan'ya Green and Antoine Mason, but the Greyhounds' depth and versatility could prove to be too much for the Purple Eagles. In the final game of the night Siena's chances hinge on the health of guard Evan Hymes due to their lack of depth, and Iona needs to take the floor with a killer instinct in their quarterfinal matchup with Marist.

Missouri Valley - Semifinals
#1 Wichita State vs. #4 Illinois State, 2:30 p.m. (MVC TV)
#2 Creighton vs. #3 Evansville, 5:00 p.m. (MVC TV)

The top four seeds meet in St. Louis and while many will expect the Shockers and Bluejays to advance don't sell the redbirds or Purple Aces short. Evansville took Creighton to overtime at home before some costly mistakes in the extra session cost them a win, lost by just three at Wichita State. But given the way Gregg Marshall's Shockers are playing of late it's going to be tough to slow them down given their many offensive options to go along with a solid defense. If Jackie Carmichael can control the paint in his battle with Garrett Stutz then ISU has a chance.

The second game could be a shootout given the offensive ability of both teams. Doug McDermott is a household name and he's got teammates more than capable of scoring as well, but Evansville has a combo in Colt Ryan and Denver Holmes who can get going offensively as well. If Marty Simmons' club can take care of the basketball and limit McDermott's paint touches they can win, but that's a big "if" at this point.

Southern - Quarterfinals
#1N UNCG vs. #5N Appalachian State, 12:00 p.m.
#2S Wofford vs. #3N Western Carolina, 2:30 p.m.
#1S Davidson vs. #5S Furman, 6:00 p.m.
#2N Elon vs. #3S Georgia Southern, 8:30 p.m.

The question is a simple one: which of the other seven teams left in the SoCon tournament can knock off Davidson, the overall regular season champion and prohibitive favorite to win the automatic bid? Jake Cohen and De'Mon Brooks have been outstanding all season long in the frontcourt and five Wildcats are averaging at least ten points per game. The best story may be UNCG, whose interim head coach (Wes Miller) was named league Coach of the Year due to his leading the Spartans to the North Division crown, and they've got a high-flying scorer in Trevis Simpson as well. Wofford's been to two NCAA tournaments under head coach Mike Young and they navigated the loss of a group of seniors led by Noah Dahlman to finish second in the South Division.

Summit - Quarterfinals
#1 Oral Roberts vs. #8 IPFW, 7:00 p.m. (FCS)
#2 South Dakota State vs. #7 IUPUI, 9:30 p.m. (FCS)

Summit League play opens tonight with the top two seeds tipping things off, and two of the country's best players whose names aren't tossed around on ESPN every night will be on display. ORU's Dominique Morrison has been an outstanding scorer this season, and South Dakota State point guard Nate Wolters is one of the country's most efficient players. Those two are expected to end up meeting in the title game, and even though the Jackrabbits did beat IUPUI by 11 in the regular season finale there was also the 97-93 thriller played between the two earlier this season. Alex Young is averaging 20.7 points per game to lead the Jaguars, who can salvage what's been a disappointing season with a run in Sioux Falls.

Sun Belt - First Round
#6 South Alabama vs. #11 Troy, 7:00 p.m. (Summit Arena)
#8 Florida Atlantic vs. #9 Arkansas State, 7:15 p.m. (Convention Center Court)
#7 Western Kentucky vs. #10 FIU, 9:30 p.m. (Summit Arena)

Seeds six through eleven open up play in Hot Springs, Arkansas, and it will be interesting to see if any of these teams can cause some chaos within the bracket. South Alabama may be the best choice due to the Jaguars being the lone team without a losing conference record (8-8), and after that it's anyone's guess. WKU is a very young team but they're talented as well with freshman Derrick Gordon leading the way. Three teams will keep their seasons alive but it's difficult to see any of them getting to the semifinals much less the title game.

WCC - Semifinals
#1 Saint Mary's vs. #5 San Francisco, 9:00 p.m. (ESPNU)
#2 Gonzaga vs. #3 BYU, 11:00 p.m. (ESPNU)

The three teams many expect to get to the NCAA tournament out of the WCC will be on display, but San Francisco has the ability to surprise Saint Mary's and reach the final. The Dons lost a close one to the Gaels in the regular season finale, and the celebration of their first outight WCC title in more than 20 years did go over too well with U.S.F. wing Rashad Green (he reportedly banged on the SMC locker room door and "asked" them to keep the noise down). Cody Doolin and Michael Williams are playing well and Angelo Caloiaro is one of the WCC's most versatile players, so don't be surprised if San Francisco can push Matthew Dellavedova, Rob Jones and company to the brink.

In the nightcap one would think that a BYU win over Gonzaga, which would give them two this season, would truly punch the Cougars' ticket to the Big Dance if it hasn't been already. Noah Hartsock looked good despite being bugged by a knee injury at the end of the regular season on Friday night, scoring 19 points in the Cougars' win over San Diego. But Matt Carlino can't turn the ball over nine times as he did against the Toreros if they're to knock off Gonzaga, who needs consistent play from Elias Harris and Robert Sacre inside.

CAA Quarterfinal Preview

CHN — Sat, 03 Mar 2012 10:33:50 -0500

Robert Canady is covering the CAA Tournament for CollegeHoops.net. His quarterfinals preview:

#2 VCU 25-6 vs. #7 Northeastern 14-16

This has the potential to be one of the more lopsided games of the day.

How They Got Here:

VCU earned 1^st round bye as the No. 2 seed.

Northeastern beat William & Mary 57-49 in the first round.

Key Players:

VCU - Senior guard Bradford Burgess 13.5 ppg and 5.2 rebounds, Juvonte Reddic 10.8 ppg and 7.0 rebonds, Troy Daniels 10.0 ppg

Northeastern - orward Quincy Ford 18 points in 1^st round win. Reggie Specer 10 rebounds in 1^st round win.

What They Do Best:

VCU - Rank 1^st in the country with 10.6 with 10.6 steals per game. 2^nd in the country with a +6.1 turnover margin.

Northeastern - Held William & Mary to .273 on 3-Pt shot and outrebounded them 42-27.

Previous Game: VCU won at home 59-56 in February.

Prediction: VCU 73 Northeastern 65

#3 George Mason 23-8 vs. #6 Georgia State 21-10

A matchup of teams that are strong on the inside and play very physical. Based on GSU’s route of Hofstra in the first round, it could be quite a battle to the end.

How They Got Here:

George Mason earned 1^st round bye as the No. 3 seed.

Georgia State beat Hofstra by a CAA Tournament record 35 points 85-50.

Key Players:

Mason - 2011-12 CAA Player of the Year Ryan Pearson 17.8 ppg and 8.5 rebounds, Sherrod Wright .521 from the field and .401 from 3-pt range.

Georgia St. - Eric Buckner 21 points 11 rebounds in 21 minutes in 1^st round victory over Hofstra, senior Jihad Ali 13.0 ppg.

What They Do Best:

George Mason-.463 shooting from the field.

Georgia St.-hold opponents to .382 FG% 1^st in the CAA and 8^th best in the country. 5.4 blocked shots per game, 1^st in conference and 15^th in the country.

Previous Game: George Mason won 61-58 in Fairfax in January.

Prediction: George Mason 61 Georgia St. 59

#4 Old Dominion 19-12 vs. #5 Delaware18-12

This could be the most anticipated matchup of the day. Delaware has won 9 games in a row and Old Dominion spent most of the season tied for first or second before a couple late season losses.

How They Got Here:

ODU earned a first round bye as a result of being the No. 4 seed.

Delaware beat Towson for the 3^rd time this season 72-65 in the first round.

Key Players:

Delaware - Devon Saddler averaging 18.7 ppg, Jamelle Hagins 12.7 ppg, Kyle Anderson 64 3-pointers on the season.

ODU Sr. Kent Bazemore 15.3 ppg and League Defensive Player of the Year, Chris Cooper averaging 10 points and 10 rebounds per game.

What They Do Best:

ODU - Leads the conference in 40 rebounds per game. Chris Cooper is second in the league in offensive rebounds with 4.2 per game.

Delaware - Scoring, Delaware is second in the league with 69 ppg. FT% .725 is second in the league.

Previous Game: ODU won 68-66 in overtime at the buzzer on an offensive put back.

Prediction: Delaware 71 ODU 66

Friday's Conference Tournament Primer

Raphielle Johnson — Fri, 02 Mar 2012 10:37:23 -0500

Friday will be a busy night in regards to conference tournaments, with eight leagues paring down their respective fields. But there's no team on the slate more in need of a win than BYU, who takes on six-seed San Diego in the second quarterfinal of the night. The uncertainty that surrounds forward Noah Hartsock's knee injury doesn't help matters for Dave Rose's team, but whether or not he's able to play the Cougars need to avoid a misstep agains the Toreros.

Johnny Dee went off on Pepperdine on Thursday night, scoring 30 points to lead San Diego to the 76-54 win. As a team Bill Grier's squad shot 56.3% from the field against the Waves while turning the ball over just nine times. The Toreros will have to duplicate that performance if they're to have a shot at knocking off a BYU team that beat them twice during the regular season, and neither meeting was all that close.

BYU won 88-52 in Provo and 82-63 in San Diego, with the meeting at Jenny Craig Pavilion being the more recent of the two. BYU dominated the battle on the glass, out-rebounding USB 46-28 with an offensive rebounding percentage of 41.7%. And in that contest BYU didn't get much from Hartsock, but the triumvirate of Charles Abouo, Brandon Davies and Brock Zylstra grabbed a combined 26 rebounds. Six of Davies' 12 rebounds were of the offensive variety, and if that happens again the third meeting will end up like the first two.

Two things will need to happen if the Toreros are to knock off BYU: they're all going to need to step up on the boards to help out Dennis Kramer and Chris Manresa on the glass, and freshman point guard Chris Anderson will have to "win" the matchup with BYU's Matt Carlino. Anderson's gotten better as the season's worn on, which is something a team would hope for from its freshmen.

BYU still may have some work to do in regards to reaching the NCAA tournament, and to do so would at the very least require a third meeting with Gonzaga, which is what awaits the winner. Dave Rose's team would be pushing their luck if they weren't the Bulldogs' opponent on Saturday night.

In the first quarterfinal in Las Vegas the four and five seeds meet, with the winner becoming a serious threat to snatch the WCC's automatic bid. Max Good's team was 7-1 in conference games away from home, and with Anthony Ireland and Drew Viney the Lions have two of the league's better players.

But it isn't as if Rex Walters' Dons lack talent, as they're led by Angelo Caloiaro and Perris Blackwell. Four Dons average double figures, and these two teams have played two high-scoring thrilled with LMU winning both. The winner gets Saint Mary's, and there's no reason why neither can knock off the Gaels and advance to the title game as well.

WCC - Quarterfinals
#4 Loyola Marymount vs. #5 San Francisco, 9:00 p.m. (BYUtv)
#3 BYU vs. #6 San Diego, 11:00 p.m. (BYUtv)

Atlantic Sun - Semifinals
#1 Belmont vs. #4 ETSU, 6:00 p.m. (ASun TV/CSS)
#2 Mercer vs. #6 FGCU, 8:30 p.m. (ASun TV/CSS)

Three of the top four seeds made it through to the semifinals of the A-Sun tournament, but losing five of their last six to end the regular season didn't stop six-seed FGCU from knocking off USC Upstate 71-61. Chris Varidel led five Eagles in double figures with 14 points off the bench, and FGCU managed to score 50 points in the second half. They'll take on host Mercer, who swept the regular season series and limited the Eagles to 37% shooting in the second meeting. Langston Hall scored a game-high 20 points in the 75-66 Mercer victory at FGCU, and three others scored ten apiece for the Bears.

In the other semifinal regular season champion Belmont takes on ETSU, a team the Bruins beat twice by double digits this year. Kerron Johnson has played well on the perimeter and big men Mick Hedgepeth and Scott Saunders make up a formidable tandem in the paint for Rick Byrd's squad. The Bucs will need big games from Isiah Brown and Adam Sollazzo if they're to knock off the defending champs but it can be done.

Colonial - First Round
#8 James Madison vs. #9 UNCW, Noon
#5 Delaware vs. #12 Towson, 2:30 p.m.
#7 Northeastern vs. #10 William & Mary, 6 p.m.
#6 Georgia State vs. #11 Hosftra, 8:30 p.m.

First Round Preview by Robert Canady

Horizon - Quarterfinals
#6 Youngstown State vs. #3 Detroit, 6 p.m. (Horizon League Network/ESPN3)
#5 Butler vs. #4 Milwaukee, 8:30 p.m. (Horizon League Network/ESPN3)

Play resumes in the Horizon League with a pair of games to be played at Valparaiso, with the winners moving on to face the regular season champion Crusaders and two-seed Cleveland State. Butler will be the focus of many given their recent tournament history, but they've got a tough matchup on their hands in the form of the Milwaukee Panthers. These two teams split a pair of physical contests during the regular season with the home team winning both and neither scoring more than 54 points in either game. Milwaukee limited Butler to 20% shooting in the second half of their 53-42 win on January 26th, but the improved play of Andrew Smith inside is something to keep an eye on.

Milwaukee has three starters averaging between 10.7 and 11.1 points per game with Tony Meier leading the way while Smith is the lone Butler player averaging double figures. The first quarterfinal should be interesing given the Penguins' reliance on the three-point shot, and while Detroit didn't make good on the many predictions that they would win the league there's still more than enough talent needed to make a run at the league's automatic bid. Youngstown State has four players averaging at least 10.2 points per game with Kendrick Perry leading the way at 16.8. Detroit won 76-74 in the regular season finale for both last Saturday.

Metro Atlantic - First Round
#8 Marist vs. #9 Saint Peter's, 7:30 p.m.
#7 Niagara vs. #10 Canisius, 9:30 p.m.

"MAACachusetts" (their word, not mine) gets underway with a pair of games in Springfield, and while it will be interesting to see how the tournament fares in a truly neutral environment from an attendance standpoint there will be good basketball to watch as well. Rivals Niagara and Canisius meet in the second half of the doubleheader, and with the Golden Griffins lacking the depth needed to be successful throughout the regular season maybe they can salvage something in Springfield. But they're going to have their hands full with NU freshmen Juan'ya Green and Antoine Mason, both of whom made the All-Rookie Team with Green winning Rookie of the Year. In the other first round matchup Marist, who has a very good freshman of their own in Chavaughn Lewis, takes on a young Saint Peter's squad that took their share of defeats as well. The Red Foxes swept the season series, winning the most recent meeting by 19 in Poughkeepsie on February 9th.

Missouri Valley - Quarterfinals
#1 Wichita State vs. #8 Indiana State, 1:00 p.m. (MVC TV)
#4 Illinois State vs. #5 Northern Iowa, 3:30 p.m. (MVC TV)
#2 Creighton vs. #7 Drake, 7:00 p.m. (MVC TV)
#3 Evansville #6 Missouri State, 9:30 p.m. (MVC TV)

"Arch Madness" moves on to the quarterfinals, and while the top two seeds can be knocked off the 4/5 and 3/6 games will likely offer more intrigue. The four teams in those two contests all finished 9-9 in MVC play, and the battle between Evansville and Missouri State features two of the Valley's best players in UE's Colt Ryan and Missouri State's Kyle Weems. Ryan averages 20.5 points per game while the versatile Weems leads the Bears in both scoring and rebounding, but the Purple Aces won both regular season meetings by five points. As for the Panthers and Redbirds, they split their two meetings with the home team winning both.

Ben Jacobson's Panthers can defend with anyone and they limited Illinois State to an average of 64 points per game in the two contests. UNI knocked down 12 of 21 three-pointers in their 78-63 win over the Redbirds on February 11th, with Johnny Moran knocking down four of his six attempts. ISU has a very good interior player in Jackie Carmichael, and he can be a problem for the Panthers in the paint if their bigs don't limit the number of quality touches he gets.

Ohio Valley - Semifinals
#1 Murray State vs. #4 Tennessee Tech, 6:00 p.m. (ESPNU)
#2 Tennessee State vs. #3 Morehead State, 8:00 p.m. (ESPN3)

The top two teams in the OVC finally take the court with just one win separating them from the title game. All eyes from a national standpoint will be on the Racers, who have done enough to merit an at-large bid should they need one. Isaiah Canaan and Donte Pool have been the best guard tandem in the OVC this season but they're in for a challenge as Kevin Murphy and Jud Dillard can light it up as well. Murphy and Dillard average a combined 38.7 points per game for the Golden Eagles, who lost both regular season meetings with the Racers.

The second semifinal features the lone team to have beaten Murray State in league play as Tennessee State takes on three-seed Morehead State. The Tigers and Eagles played just once in the regular season, with Tennessee State knocking down 13 three-pointers in their 77-72 victory. Robert Covington has been outstanding for Tennessee State this season and Morehead State had no answer for him as he scored 30 points and grabbed eight rebounds in the January meeting. Ty Proffitt runs the show for Morehead State but he has to keep the turnovers down (five in the regular season meeting) if the Eagles are to win.

Southern - First Round
#4S College of Charleston vs. #5N Appalachian State, 11:30 a.m.
#3N Western Carolina vs. #6S The Citadel, 2:00 p.m.
#4N Samford vs. #5S Furman, 6:00 p.m.
#3S Georgia Southern vs. #6N Chattanooga, 8:30 p.m.

The SoCon tournament tips off with four games, beginning with Charleston taking on Appalachian State. The South Division has been stronger for quite some time and that was no different this season, so the expectation would be that teams such as the Cougars and Georgia Southern will take care of business and advance to the quarterfinals. Samford and Furman met just 13 days ago with the Bulldogs winning 55-49, limiting the Paladins to 34.6% shooting from the field. One issue for Furman was that they resorted to firing away from beyond the arc, and when you shoot 6-for-29 as they did that's a problem. Drew Windler led Samford with 18 points off the bench in that meeting.

Conference play can be an opportunity for teams who have disappointed to make one final run, and that's what John Shulman's Chattanooga Mocs should use as motivation. The Mocs were the pick of many to at least win the North Division and yet they finished last in the division. Redeeming themselves will be tough however as Georgia Southern went 12-6 in conference play. Charlton Young's Eagles dropped their final two regular season games (Charleston and Davidson) and the beat the Mocs by just three points (75-72) in their lone meeting, so maybe Chattanooga can pull off the upset.

CAA First Round Preview

CHN — Thu, 01 Mar 2012 16:46:23 -0500

By Robert Canady: robert_canady@msn.com

The Colonial Athletic Conference tournament begins Friday in Richmond, VA. The conference’s top four teams, Drexel (regular season champions) George Mason, Virginia Commonwealth and Old Dominion all have byes into the tournaments quarterfinals on Saturday. We will take a closer look at them later in the week. Here is a look at the first round matchups.

Game 1: #8 James Madison 12-19 (5-13) vs. #9 UNCW 9-20 (5-13) 12:00 pm

The two teams only met once in the conference season and that was a 69-61 JMU victory in Wilmington, NC on January 18^th. Senior guard Humpty Hitchens who had a career high 27 points in the win led the Dukes in scoring. Redshirt junior guard A.J. Davis also contributed 18 points and a career high eight rebounds. Kieth Rendleman the CAA’s fifth leading scorer (15.6) had 12 points to go along with 18 rebounds for the Seahawks.

While the teams may have finished in the lower half of the conference, the game could offer some good individual offensive performances. Four of the top league’s top 10 scorers will be in the matchup: JMU’s Davis 4^th and Hitchens 7^th along with UNCW’s Rendleman 5^th and Adam Smith 10^th.

Both teams finished season with an equal record in conference play. A key to the matchup may be determined from behind the 3-pt arc. JMU is second in the conference in three-point percentage. They are making a conference leading average of 7.8 per game and shooting .362 percent from 3-point range. UNCW on the other hand trails only Drexel and VCU in three-point defense, allowing only .314 percent.

Coaches: James Madison is coached by Matt Brady who is in his fourth year at the helm. Buzz Peterson, a member of North Carolina’s 1982 national championship team, is completing his second year as the Seahawks head coach. Pick: JMU 58 UNCW 52

Game 2: #5 Delaware 17-12 (12-6) vs. #12 Towson 1-30 (1-17) 2:30 pm

These two teams will be meeting for the third time this year and second time in the past nine days. Delaware won the first meeting of the year 62-43 in Newark. The Tigers played the Blue Hens much closer on February 22^nd in Towson before falling 76-69, a game that wasn’t decided until the last minute. In that game, Delaware freshman Jarvis Threatt scored a season high 29 points including 16 of 19 from the free throw line. Towson kept the result in doubt until the end, in part due to seven combined three-pointers from sophomore Marcus Damas (21 points) and freshman Kris Walden (18 points.)

There is a stat that no team that has played on Friday has made it to the final game of the tournament. Delaware is a team that is fully capable of pulling off that task. The Blue Hens enter the game on an eight game winning streak that started with a 65-60 victory over George Mason. They and Drexel are the only two CAA teams not to have lost during the month of February.

Delaware under head coach Monte’ Ross is loaded with offensive firepower. Threatt has been named CAA Rookie of the Week four times since January 23^rd. Sophomore Devon Saddler is second in the conference in scoring at 18.7 points per game. Junior Jamelle Hagins adds 12.7 points a game and guard Kyle Anderson leads the team and all freshman in the conference with 64 three pointers.

Coaches: Towson has begun rebuilding under first year head coach Pat Skerry. Despite the inexperienced roster that has only one scholarship letter winner, the Tigers have played very hard and taken a few of the league’s top teams down to the wire. Better days are ahead for the Tigers in the tournament, but this year most likely will not be one of them. Pick: Delaware 71 Towson 55

Game 3: #7 Northeastern 13-16 (9-9) vs. #10 William & Mary 6-25 (4-14) 6:00 pm

This may be the least intriguing game of the first day matchups. The two teams split the season series each winning at home, Northeastern prevailing 64-50 in January and William & Mary winning big 79-54 on February 11^th. Northeastern started the conference season with a promising 5-2 mark before losing six of their next eight games. They also had non-conference wins against, St. Johns, Boston University and Southern Illinois. In addition, Northeastern knocked George Mason out of a first place tie with Drexel in the second to last game of the season with an 85-82 Overtime victory at home.

Junior guard Jonathan Lee leads the Huskies. Lee provides constant on court leadership, as he was second in the CAA this year with 35.7 minutes played per game. He is also the team’s leading scorer contributing 14.6 points per game. Junior Joel Smith, who is the Huskies second leading scorer with 12.9 points per game, compliments Lee in the backcourt. Both players are capable of taking over a game and putting up big numbers. Smith ended the regular season averaging 20.7 points a game over his last four games and had a season high 29 points in the victory over St. Johns. Lee was very consistent all season, scoring in double figures in all but three games and two of those he had nine points. Lee had a season high 27 points in the win over George Mason.

The Tribe has a combination of experience and youth. Senior Quinn McDowell leads the way with 12.7 points per game and freshman Marcus Thornton is close behind with 11.1 per game. Thornton seems to thrive on tough completion as he had a team season high 28 points against VCU on February 1^st and scored 23 on the road against George Mason in January. McDowell for his part had 27 points against UNCW and 26 on the road at Towson.

Coaches: Bill Coen is completing his sixth season as head coach at Northeastern. Tony Shaver is in his 9^th year at William & Mary. He took his team to the 2010 NIT and is a two time (2008, 2010) CAA Coach of the Year. Pick: Northeastern 64 William & Mary 50

Game 4: #6 Georgia St. 20-10 (11-7) vs. #11 Hofstra 10-21 (3-15) 8:30 pm

Because of the CAA’s unbalanced schedule, these teams only met once and that was not until the 13^th conference game of the season in which Georgia St. won easily on the road in Hempstead, NY. Georgia State has had a roller coaster season if ever a team has had one. After losing all three games in the season opening World Vision Classic in Seattle Washington, they won 11 games in a row. That included a 5 -1 mark to start the conference part of the season. They played a killer stretch of three games in five days against Drexel at home, then VCU and George Mason on the road. The Panthers hit a bit of a mid season swoon as they dropped four out of five games in late January, including a double overtime loss at Delaware. Speaking of overtime, Georgia St. might be the only team in the country that has lost three conference overtime games in the same season. The first two of those came against the Blue Hens of Delaware.

Hofstra finished 3-15 in the conference but had their most impressive outing of the year in the season finale, a 93-64 win at home over UNCW. Hofstra boasts the CAA’s leading scorer, senior guard Mike Moore. Moore averaged a league best 20.7 points per game and had three outings of over 30 points, including the win over UNCW. Moore finished third in the conference with 79 three-pointers on the season including six in the season finale.

Coaches: Ron Hunter is in his first year as head coach at Georgia St. and has garnered some talk as a Coach of the Year candidate in leading the Panthers to 20 wins after taking over a team that had an 11-18 campaign last year. Mo Cassara completes his second season as Hofstra’s coach. He had a very successful first season leading the Pride to a 21-12 record. Pick: Georgia St. 78-69

Quarterfinals Saturday March 3^rd

#1 Drexel vs. JMU/UNCW winner 12:00 pm

#4 ODU vs. Delaware/Towson winner 2:30 pm

#2 VCU vs. Northeastern/William & Mary winner 6:00 pm

#3 George Mason vs. Georgia St/Hofstra winner 8:30 pm

Semifinals Sunday March 4^th

Drexel/JMU/UNCW vs. ODU/Towson/Delaware winner 2:00 pm

VCU/Northeastern/William & Mary vs. George Mason/Georgia St/Hofstra winner 4:30 pm

Championship Game Monday March 5^th at 7:00 pm

Jon Teitel's All-Conference Teams, Part One

Jon Teitel — Mon, 27 Feb 2012 12:51:19 -0500

It's that time of the year again. With conference tournament action beginning today, it was a perfect time for Jon Teitel to present CollegeHoops.net's All-Conference Teams. Part one focuses on the teams who will enter conference tournament play this week, and the rest of the conferences will be posted next week. Player of the Year selections are in italics.

America East
G Gerardo Suero (Albany)
G Darryl Partin (Boston University)
G Gerald McLemore (Maine)
F Chase Plummer (UMBC)
F Alasdair Fraser (Maine)

Atlantic Sun
G Drew Hanlen (Belmont)
G Adam Sollazzo (ETSU)
G Kerron Johnson (Belmont)
F Torrey Craig (USC Upstate)
F Adam Pegg (Stetson)

Big Sky
G Damian Lillard (Weber State)
G Charles Odum (Portland State)
G Will Cherry (Montana)
F Collin Chiverton (Eastern Washington)
F Chehales Tapscott (Portland State)

Big South
G Nick Barbour (High Point)
G Keith Gabriel (VMI)
G Matt Dickey (UNC Asheville)
F Stan Okoye (VMI)
F Eric Griffin (Campbell)

Colonial
G Mike Moore (Hofstra)
G Devon Saddler (Delaware)
G Keith Rendleman (UNC Wilmington)
F Ryan Pearson (George Mason)
F Jamelle Hagins (Delaware)

Horizon
G Kendrick Perry (Youngstown State)
G Ray McCallum (Detroit)
G Julius Mays (Wright State)
F Ryan Broekhoff (Valparaiso)
F Ben Averkamp (Loyola (IL))

Metro Atlantic
G Juan'Ya Green (Niagara)
G Scott Machado (Iona)
F Michael Glover (Iona)
F George Beamon (Manhattan)
F OD Anosike (Siena)

Missouri Valley
G Colt Ryan (Evansville)
G Rayvonte Rice (Drake)
F Doug McDermott (Creighton)
F Kyle Weems (Missouri State)
C Garrett Stutz (Wichita State)

Northeast
G Shane Gibson (Sacred Heart)
G Kyle Vinales (CCSU)
F Ken Horton (CCSU)
F Jamal Olasewere (LIU-Brooklyn)
F Julian Boyd (LIU-Brooklyn)

Ohio Valley
G Kevin Murphy (Tennessee Tech)
G Isaiah Canaan (Murray State)
G Jud Dillard (Tennessee Tech)
F Robert Covington (Tennessee State)
F Tyler Stone (Southeast Missouri State)

Patriot League
G C.J. McCollum (Lehigh)
G Charles Hinkle (American)
F Ella Ellis (Army)
F Mike Muscala (Bucknell)
F Ryan Willen (Lafayette)

Southern
G Eric Ferguson (Georgia Southern)
G Brad Loesing (Wofford)
F Trevis Simpson (UNC Greensboro)
F De'Mon Brooks (Davidson)
C Mike Groselle (Citadel)

Summit League
G Reggie Hamilton (Oakland)
G Nate Wolters (South Dakota State)
G Frank Gaines (IPFW)
F Alex Young (IUPUI)
F Dominique Morrison (Oral Roberts)

Sun Belt
G DeJuan Wright (FIU)
G Brian Stafford (Denver)
F Tony Mitchell (North Texas)
C LaRon Dendy (Middle Tennessee)
C Augustine Rubit (South Alabama)

West Coast
G Drew Viney (Loyola Marymount)
G Matthew Dellavedova (Saint Mary's)
G Anthony Ireland (Loyola Marymount)
F Noah Hartsock (BYU)
F Rob Jones (Saint Mary's)