Army

Wednesday'sTournament Predictions: Atlantic Sun, Big South, Patriot

Greg Mengelt — Tue, 28 Feb 2012 21:18:38 -0800

Our g ame prediction guru Greg Mengelt has been on fire this year. He'll be picking almost conference tournament game over the next 2 weeks.

BIG SOUTH TOURNAMENT AT ASHEVILLE, N.C.

(2) Coastal Carolina (19-10, 12-6) vs. (7) Virginia Military (15-15, 8-10)

Tipoff: Noon. TV: Big South Network. Regular-season meetings: Dec. 1 – Coastal Carolina 87-78; Feb. 25 – Coastal Carolina 81-64*. RPI: Coastal Carolina 179; VMI 287. Analysis: The Chanticleers struggled late in the regular season. With a game under its belt, VMI should be able to keep this game close. Line: Coastal Carolina -6. Pick: Coastal Carolina 73, VMI 64.

(3) Campbell (17-14, 11-7) vs. (6) Winthrop (11-19, 8-10)

Tipoff: 2 p.m. TV: Big South Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 17 – Campbell, 54-51*; Feb. 9 – Campbell, 67-58. RPI: Campbell 201; Winthrop 274. Analysis: Campbell really faded down the stretch. This could be the first conference tournament upset. Line: Campbell -1½. Pick: Campbell 61, Winthrop 60.

(1) UNC-Asheville (21-9, 16-2) vs. (8) High Point (11-19, 6-12)

Tipoff: 6 p.m. TV: Big South Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 14 – Asheville, 86-79*; Jan. 26 – Asheville, 90-70. RPI: Asheville 123; High Point 276. Analysis: High Point has more talent than its record indicates and has a chance to keep this game close. Line: Asheville -8½. Pick: Asheville 80, High Point 73.

(4) Charleston Southern (18-11, 11-7) vs. (5) Liberty (14-17, 9-9)

Tipoff: 8 p.m. TV: Big South Network. Regular-season meetings: Dec. 31 – Charleston Southern, 81-76*; Feb. 9 – Liberty 75-74*. RPI: Charleston Southern 178; Liberty 282. Analysis: CSU is the higher seed and has the better record, but Liberty is playing better behind do-everything Jesse Sanders. Line: Charleston Southern -3½. Pick: Liberty 72, Charleston Southern 65.

PATRIOT LEAGUE AT CAMPUS SITES

(8) Navy (3-25, 0-14) at (1) Bucknell (22-8, 12-2)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 28 – Bucknell 66-51*; Feb. 25 – Bucknell 64-55. RPI: Bucknell 83, Navy 328. Analysis: It would take the return of David Robinson for Navy to stay in this game. Line: Bucknell -21½. Pick: Bucknell 80, Navy 51.

(7) Colgate (8-21, 2-12) at (2) Lehigh (23-7, 11-3)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 24 – Lehigh 78-56*; Feb. 11 – Lehigh 89-69. RPI: Lehigh 109, Colgate 300. Analysis: The Hawks will roll into the title game. Line: Lehigh -21½. Pick: Lehigh 75, Colgate 53.

(5) Lafayette (12-17, 7-7) at (4) Holy Cross (15-13, 9-5)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 19 – Lafayette 54-43*; Feb. 22 – Holy Cross 70-63*. RPI: Holy Cross 165, Lafayette 210. Analysis: The Crusaders win the rubber match with their seventh straight win. Line: Holy Cross -6½. Pick: Holy Cross 60, Lafayette 55.

(3) American (19-10, 10-4) at (6) Army (12-17, 5-9)

Tipoff: 7:30 p.m. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 21 – American 67-55; American 74-50*. RPI: American 152, Army 300. Analysis: American has won 6 of 8 and the hot play with continue Wednesday. Line: American -13. Pick: American 73, Army 52.

ATLANTIC SUN TOURNAMENT AT MACON, GA.

(1) Belmont (24-7, 16-2) vs. (8) Jacksonville (8-21, 6-12)

Tipoff: 2:30 p.m. TV: ESPN3. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 4 – Belmont 75-63*; Jan. 28 – Belmont 85-51. RPI: Belmont 61, Jacksonville 263. Analysis: Belmont’s explosive offense has led the Bruins to 11 straight wins. Make it 12. Line: Belmont -16. Pick: Belmont 90, Jacksonville 64.

(2) Mercer (21-10, 13-5) vs. (7) Lipscomb (13-17, 8-10)

Tipoff: 8:30 p.m. TV: ESPN3. Regular-season meetings: Dec. 1 – Mercer 79-72*; Feb. 23 – Mercer 63-54. RPI: Mercer 125, Lipscomb 219. Analysis: Mercer has had a nice season, but the Bears aren’t playing well late in the season. Line: Mercer -10. Pick: Mercer 68, Lipscomb 62.

*Road win

College Hoops Monday Recap: Yarou Out For the Year?

Raphielle Johnson — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 21:07:48 -0800

According to numerous outlets including FOX Sports' Jeff Goodman this is indeed the case, with the highly touted freshman forward out of Benin by way of Montrose Christian missing the remainder of the season with an undisclosed medical issue. Yarou played in the first two games of the season but was sent home from the Wildcats' trip to Puerto Rico due to a viral infection. This would be a significant loss for Jay Wright's team and the frontcourt rotation becomes thinner.

Antonio Peña, who played well in Puerto Rico, will be looked to for more production and the same goes for the likes of Taylor King, Isaiah Armwood and Maurice Sutton. But Coach Wright also has a number of bodies in the backcourt, which affords him the luxury of being able to go small if necessary. Losing Yarou is a blow to the Wildcats' chances but the injury is coming early in the season, allowing them the time to tinker with their rotation before they hit Big East play.

Three Key Happenings

1. Penn State gets a win for the Big Ten. The Nittany Lions nearly blew it but they were able to ultimately escape Virginia with a 69-66 win, putting the Big Ten up 1-0 in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Talor Battle scored twenty-eight points in the second half and with four minutes remaining the Lions held a 55-43 edge. But Cavaliers closed strong, getting to within 67-66 with just under six seconds remaining. Battle's two foul shots provided the final margin but not before some anxiety on the visiting bench. Sylven Landesburg led the Cavaliers with eighteen but this was nearly a case of "here we go again" for the Big Ten. Talor Battle made sure that wasn't the case.

2. Two good stories to keep an eye on: Army and Stony Brook. Yes Monday was a light night on the schedule, so we may as well take a look at some schools that don't normally end up on the highlight shows. The Black Knights and Seawolves each have 5-1 records and while Steve Pikiell's team was expected to be a factor in America East not much was expected of Army. The school fired head coach Jim Crews just weeks before the start of practice, hiring Zach Spiker from Cornell.

What has ensued is a story that hasn't even scratched the surface, and a team that returned essentially every key contributor outside of Jarell Brown has played good basketball. Cleveland Richard and Ella Ellis led the way in their 64-58 win over Bryant and while a win over the Bulldogs isn't particularly impressive the Black Knights could have used the coaching change as a crutch. They haven't. With players such as Muhammad El-Amin, Bryan Dougher and Tommy Brenton Stony Brook will likely have more staying power but both have played well to start the season.

3. St. Mary's begins their three-game road swing with a comeback. The Gaels didn't get off to the best of starts at San Jose State, going into the locker room down 45-33 at the half. Whatever message Randy Bennett delivered to his team during the intermission clearly worked, as the Gaels outscored the Spartans 45-26 in the second stanza on their way to the 78-71 victory. Mickey McConnell led SMC with nineteen points while Omar Samhan added a double-double with twelve points and thirteen boards. With their next two games being at Utah State and at Oregon this was a game that St. Mary's needed to get given how tough it can be to win in either of those arenas. The win won't do much for their profile but it's a lot better than having to deal with the damage that a loss could have done.

Top Three Games

1. Navy 65, Quinnipiac 62 Chris Harris led the Midshipmen with thirty-one points, including a half-court shot that banked in at the buzzer to give Navy the win in Annapolis. James Feldeine led the Bobcats with 24 points, scoring eighteen in the second half.

2. Penn State 69, Virginia 66 See above.

3. Hofstra 84, Fairfield 80 A shootout in Hempstead with Charles Jenkins scoring thirty-eight for the winners while three Stags scored at least 22 points (Derek Needham, fresh off of being named MAAC Rookie of the Week, led Fairfield with 26).

Three Notable Performances

1. G Charles Jenkins (Hofstra) Jenkins went off on Fairfield, making twelve of his seventeen shots on his way to a 38-point effort.

2. G Chris Harris (Navy) Scoring thirty-one points is one thing. But when you bank in the game-winner from half court you deserve mention.

3. G Talor Battle (Penn State) Battle scored twenty-eight of his 32 points in the second half and the Nittany Lions needed every one of those points in their 69-66 win over Virginia.

Thoughts? Additions? Feel free to add them below.

Wednesday-Friday Football Preview

Raphielle Johnson — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 15:38:26 -0700

Wednesday: Tulsa (4-2, 2-0 Conference USA) @ UTEP (2-4, 1-1), 8 PM on ESPN

While the Golden Hurricane have been a consistent team for much of the season, the same can't be said for their opponents and that could make this an interesting challenge. UTEP picked up their best win in years a couple of weeks ago in their 58-41 beating of Houston, and how did they back that up? With a surprising loss to a bad Memphis team the following week. Despite the explosion of QB Trevor Vittatoe and RB Donald Buckram in the win over the Cougars this is still a mediocre offense that can't be expected to consistently bail out a defense that's among the worst in college football. Mike Price's team is also last in C-USA in penalty yards per game and 11th in number of penalties to this point in the year.

If UTEP isn't disciplined in both their infractions and assignments they'll be in serious trouble against the likes of QB G.J. Kinne and WR Damaris Johnson. Tulsa is among the best in the country offensively, and they are also atop a few of the major defensive statistical categories. That will prove to be too much for the Miners on this night; Tulsa takes care of business on the road.

Thursday: Florida State (2-4, 0-3 ACC) @ North Carolina (4-2, 0-2), 8 PM on ESPN

Opposites attract in Chapel Hill in a game that will feature a pair of assistants under siege from fans. Florida State's defense has been the issue, with a group that defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews toutesd before the season as the fastest he'd seen at the school ranking dead last in the ACC in total defense. This group is painfully young, a fact that has lent itself to missed assignments and big plays for opposing offenses.

And while the offense is ranked the best in the conference in terms of yards per game they've been inconsistent, struggling with turnovers and periods of stagnant play. If both sides of the football can become more consistent there's still a chance that they get back into the ACC Atlantic race. North Carolina has dealt with far different issues themselves and fans aren't too happy with offensive coordinator John Shoop as a result.

Noth Carolina's defense, led by LB Bruce Carter and DT Marvin Austin, leads the ACC in total defense and could have a big night pressuring Florida State's Christian Ponder. The offense, on the other hand, is dead last in total offense. People knew there would be a dropoff of some sort with receivers Hakeem Nicks, Brooks Foster and Brandon Tate all moving on.

But injuries on the offensive line as well as at tight end and running back have also played a role in this, so it may not be completely fair to place the blame on Shoop's playcalling. Look for T.J. Yates to be more consistent on Thursday night, and a good evening from backs Ryan Houston and Shaun Draughn should equal a Tar Heel victory.

Friday: Rutgers (4-2, 0-2 Big East) @ Army (3-4), 8 PM on ESPN2

Despite the appearance on paper the Scarlet Knights will be in for quite a test on Friday night when they travel to West Point. Army ranks 12th nationally in rushing offense and Rich Ellerson's double-eagle flex defensive scheme (which he helped create at Arizona) has been a success thus far. It will provide a challenge for QB Tom Savage in that very few schools use that scheme, and if successful it feeds off of heavy pressure of the quarterback.

Can the Rutgers defense neutralize Army's rushing attack? It's definitely possible, but the Rutgers defense and viewers alike will need a little time to get used to Army's primary receiver. Ali Villanueva, who last year was an offensive lineman, cuts an imposing figure on the outside at 6'10", 260 lbs. and while they're the worst team in the FBS at throwing the ball a player like Villanueva has to be accounted for. But the pick here is Rutgers and look for a big game from freshman WR Mohamed Sanu, who is rapidly developing into one of the better receiving threats in the Big East.

Poll: Who Will Win the Patriot League?

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 09:27:55 -0700

Week 2 Recap

Raphielle Johnson — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 01:41:56 -0700

Are teams and players being anointed too early?

Week 2 of the college football season was action-packed, providing fans with moments that they won’t soon forget. Matt Barkley leading USC down the field for the game-winning touchdown with help from Joe McKnight got the majority of the press due to the pregame hype. But has he officially “arrived”? Has McKnight “turned the corner”? Make no mistake about it, these were great moments in the development of these young players, but the second game of the season seems a bit early to judge their work completed. Not to mention the many who questioned Ohio State’s ability in “big” games are also those making these judgments.

Not to take anything away from the Trojans; that was one impressive finish considering how little they’d done in the third quarter. But did the overly conservative play-calling by Ohio State give them some help? More could have been done on offense to go for the Trojans’ jugular vein; they’ve got too much talent to be allowed to hang around. Pete Carroll’s defense had something to do with that as well, but where was the imagination? Why not get Terrelle Pryor out in space more often, allowing him to be a true run/pass threat? Too early to heap great praise on the Trojans? Maybe, maybe not. But they’ve got some examples of what can happen when you listen to the praise a little too much.

Michigan State and Oklahoma State became prime examples of strolling out onto the field carrying past accomplishments and what it can do to you. The Spartans ended up in a slugfest with Central Michigan, who didn’t look very good at Arizona last weekend, and eventually lost on a field goal as time expired. The Cowboys, with their highest ranking in years, should have known what to expect from Houston. The Cougars led in the second quarter of last year’s meeting 16-7 before falling to a furious Cowboy onslaught.

No such luck for Coach Gundy’s team this time, with the Cougars leaving Stillwater with the 45-35 win. Florida State, who some thought to be on their way back in a close loss to Miami, nearly lost to Jacksonville State before a pair of late touchdowns provided the deceiving final score of 20-9. So USC, Michigan, and anyone else going into next week on the heels of a big win consider yourselves forewarned. We could be in store for wilder fall than anticipated if you aren’t careful.

ACC: Conference avoids disaster in Week 2.

As bad as the first weekend was for the conference, things could have gotten a lot worse in Week 2. Early Saturday afternoon things didn’t look good, with North Carolina (Connecticut), Wake Forest (Stanford) and Duke (Army) all losing games they’d be expected to win. While the losses wouldn’t have been killers they certainly wouldn’t help the reputation of the ACC, so it’s a good thing that they were able to rally for victories. But that wasn’t the end of it, with Florida State and Maryland (James Madison) needing late rallies to survive FCS opponents.

The Terrapins, who beat the Dukes in overtime 38-35, suffered a big loss in CB Nolan Carroll (fractured tibia) and it remains to be seen how they go about replacing the senior. And of course there’s Virginia, who needed a pair of window-dressing touchdowns to avoid a shutout at the hands of TCU. Who wins this league is a crapshoot at this point as the Clemson/Georgia Tech game showed, but the members would do well to avoid embarrassing non-conference losses at this point in the season.

Big 12: Some conference teams come back to reality while there may be serious issues in Boulder.

The Big 12 received a good amount of praise following the first weekend due to impressive wins by Missouri and Oklahoma State. Both were shocked back into reality, with the Tigers being lucky enough to escape their test with a win. Bowling Green gave Gary Pinkel’s team all it wanted and then some, making the Tigers pay for two turnovers in jumping out to a 20-6 lead in the third quarter. Missouri scored twenty-one unanswered to save the 27-20 win, while the Cowboys weren’t as lucky as previously mentioned. But by no means were those the only results to take note of.

Colorado put up an embarrassing effort at Toledo on Friday night, never being a factor in a 54-38 beating that was worse than that score indicated. QB Cody Hawkins took a beating, suffering a concussion on a touchdown run, but he had to take his licks because there’s no other option. Were things bad when Dan Hawkins took over? Yes, but is it too much to ask for results like this to not happen? Given how good this league is, CU could end the season fighting with the likes of Kansas State and Iowa State instead of Kansas, Nebraska and Missouri. And there’s the celebration of Bill Snyder’s five-year contract with a 17-15 loss at UL Lafayette. The top of the Big 12 will be very good, likely hiding a soft underbelly.

Big East: West Virginia shows off a new dimension in their win over East Carolina, and Connecticut’s season is at a critical point.

Many knew that Bill Stewart’s team wouldn’t be able to run as often as in years past with Pat White gone. But instead of giving this program enough credit to acknowledge that they’d be able to adjust, many predicted their demise. As the Pirates found out Saturday, that may not be the smartest idea. In the 35-20 win Jarrett Brown threw for 334 yards and four touchdowns (running for another 73 yards), and six players had at least two receptions on the day. And that was with four turnovers and eleven penalties. They’ll have to touch up those areas in advance of their trip to Auburn next week, but the predictions of their demise…a bit premature.

As for the Huskies it’s rare that a 1-1 record signals a fork in the road, but that’s exactly what they’ll have before them at Baylor next weekend. The 12-10 loss to North Carolina was heartbreaking because of the way in which it happened. A defense that bailed out an anemic offense for three quarters got tired, there was a holding call in the end zone for the final margin, and no adjustment on 4^th-and-4 when the Tar Heels were bringing everything but the kitchen sink. QB Zach Frazer (knee) will miss the next two games, putting the pressure on Cody Endres to bring a mostly dormant offense back to life. It may not be a conference game but their meeting with Baylor will play a major role in which way the season heads.

Big Ten: Mixed signals from the Big Ten.

Most of the attention was given to Michigan and Ohio State since they were playing in arguably the two biggest games of the day. But those were just two paragraphs in the Big Ten story Saturday. Indiana, Michigan State, Northwestern and Wisconsin all found themselves in dogfights with MAC opponents and not all three survived. Indiana managed a thirteen penalty effort against Western Michigan by forcing three turnovers in the 23-19 win, while Northwestern needed a field goal as time expired to beat Eastern Michigan. Wisconsin needed overtime to knock off a game Fresno State squad. The Spartans, on the other hand, fell to Central Michigan on a field goal by Andrew Aguila with three seconds left.

Iowa had no such difficulties with Iowa State, whipping their in-state rivals 35-3 in Ames and the same can be said for Illinois, who took care of Illinois State. Penn State harassed Greg Paulus and company in a decisive victory over Syracuse at Beaver Stadium. Originally thought by many to be a two-team race the Big Ten may prove to be more wide-open than originally anticipated.

Conference USA: For all the focus on the Mountain West and Boise State, don’t forget the West.

Houston’s win over Oklahoma State has already been mentioned, but people haven’t paid much attention to the Tulsa Golden Hurricane. They will next weekend when G.J. Kinne and company visit Norman to take on the Sooners. Oklahoma QB Landry Jones looked very good on Saturday but Tulsa is no Idaho State. And as fate would have it, Tulsa will host Boise State in October, which could likely be the Broncos’ toughest game left on the schedule.

Another team in the conference to keep an eye on: Southern Miss, who hosts a bad Virginia team next week and will also have a shot at both Houston and Tulsa in November. Larry Fedora’s team didn’t look great in their win over UCF, but they’ve finally got WR DeAndre Brown (broken leg in the New Orleans Bowl) back on the field. As he shakes off the rust he’ll return to being the weapon that he was before the injury. Many ignore Conference USA, lamenting the fact that the defense isn’t the strongest, but there are some dangerous teams lurking in the shadows.

Independents: Army drops a heartbreaker at home, while Notre Dame does the same on the road.

The Black Knights looked pretty good in the first half of their game against Duke, and the solid play continued even after reserve QB Sean Renfree entered the game and moved the Blue Devils down the field. But his play (7-of-8, 106 yards 2 TD) was enough to put Duke in the driver’s seat and two interceptions of the pick-six variety from Leon Wright sealed the 35-19 win for Duke. Head coach Rich Ellerson’s double-eagle flex defense confused starter Thaddeus Lewis and limited the Duke offense to 236 yards of offense, but the turnovers (four overall) made all the difference.

Notre Dame, on the other hand, simply got caught in a game of “who has the ball last” in Ann Arbor. But you have to wonder if the Irish would have been better off running the football late instead of throwing on second down of their last drive with the lead. Coach Weis made it a matter of “making them use their timeouts or winning the game” but why would holding onto the ball as long as possible be a bad thing? And even if Notre Dame were to not get a first down wouldn’t it be better to give Michigan the ball back with no timeouts? Oh well, he’s the coach and I’m not.

MAC: Some missed opportunities, but all in all a decent weekend for the conference.

The weekend began with Toledo’s beating of Colorado at the Glass Bowl and ended with Boise State shutting out Miami (Ohio). In between were close calls, one upset and a couple of blowouts. Essentially what’s been going on in the Mid-American Conference for quite some time, showing both the depth of this conference and why the MAC hasn’t had a member make a run at a BCS bid. Not only do they beat up on each other within conference play but there are many instances of “close but no cigar” results. So who are the favorites to get to Detroit after two weeks? Buffalo looks to be a solid bet in the East, but there will be challenges from Akron, Bowling Green and Ohio. In the West, Central Michigan and Western Michigan look to be the class of the division but Toledo will also have something to say about what should be a fun race.

Mountain West: Utah survives San Jose State, pushing their win streak to sixteen straight, while UNLV misses a golden opportunity.

The Utes ended up in more of a fight than many anticipated going into their game at San Jose State. But they pulled away in the fourth quarter thanks to a pair of touchdowns in the first five minutes of the fourth quarter, providing a margin that proved to be too much for the Spartans to overcome. Two turnovers and eleven penalties kept SJSU in the game despite being outgained by a margin of 499-264. Figuring who exactly Oregon is has been tough given the circumstances of their opener, but they can make Utah pay next week if Kyle Whittingham’s team doesn’t pay better attention to the little things.

As for the Rebels, they hung with Oregon State until the bitter end, even taking a 21-20 lead with just over four minutes remaining after trailing 20-7 at the start of the fourth quarter. But they couldn’t keep the Beavers out of field goal range on the game’s final drive, and the end result was a Justin Kahut field goal with seven seconds remaining. UNLV was a minus-2 in turnover margin and they also saw QB Omar Clayton leave the game with a knee injury. Mike Clausen entered the game and threw a pair of touchdown passes, which is a good sign should he have to take over the reins for an extended period of time.

Pac-10: UCLA picks up a big win on the road while Stanford lets one slip away.

The Cardinal looked to be in good shape at halftime; up 17-3 and redshirt freshman Andrew Luck was having a good game at Wake Forest. Then the Demon Deacons went on a run, scoring the last twenty-one points of the game to win 24-17. Riley Skinner’s quarterback sneak with two seconds remaining provided the final margin, leaving Stanford to make the cross-country flight thinking about what could have been. The primary issue for Stanford: stopping the run. Wake Forest finished the day with 251 yards on the ground, averaging 5.6 yards per carry.

As for the Bruins, losing QB Kevin Prince (broken jaw) for an extended period may temper the enthusiasm following their 19-15 win at Tennessee. Yes the Volunteers are looking to rebuild under new head coach Lane Kiffin but that doesn’t excuse the fact that the UCLA defense forced four turnovers and limited the Volunteers to fewer than three yards per rush. Kai Forbath was the star for UCLA, making four of five field goal attempts in the win. The question now is how the Bruins make up for the loss of Prince with either Richard Brehaut or Kevin Craft. Craft, as you will likely remember, was the starter last season and had a tough go of it.

SEC: What’s gotten into the Auburn offense? Try new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn.

You couldn’t blame some folks if they were skeptical about the promises of exciting offense from the Auburn Tigers given what happened under Tony Franklin in 2008. The pledge was to go to the spread offense, and to say the least things didn’t go as planned. The most incriminating piece of evidence that the installation wasn’t working: a brutal 3-2 loss at Mississippi State. In the rematch, there were no such doldrums for the Tigers, who sprinted out to a 14-0 first quarter.

Winning by a final score of 49-24 Auburn racked up nearly 600 yards of offense, and QB Kodi Burns was a game-changer with his three scores on the ground. As a team Auburn ran for 390 yards with three players rushing for at least 75 yards on the evening. If they can get the same effort against West Virginia next weekend they’ll have a shot.

Sun Belt: The “Dwight Dasher Show” leads Middle Tennessee to a blowout win over Memphis.

This had all the makings of a close game on paper, and it began as such with the Blue Raiders and Tigers ending the first quarter tied at seven. Then Middle Tennessee’s offense got going and the defense shut down Memphis, leading to a run of twenty-four unanswered points to put the game away. Dasher accounted for 320 yards of total offense along with two touchdown passes in the 31-14 victory, and the Blue Raider defense held Memphis to ninety-three yards rushing on thirty-seven attempts. Given what happened at Clemson last week this was a good win for Middle Tennessee. UL Lafayette shouldn’t be forgotten either, with kicker Tyler Albrecht beating Kansas State with thirty-two seconds left in the game. While neither or those teams would be considered major scalps on the national scene, they are decent wins for a conference that more times than not plays the role of whipping boy to the other leagues.

WAC: Fresno State misses out on a golden opportunity; where do they go from here?

This was by no means a crossroads game for the Bulldogs, since the loss to Wisconsin has no bearing on the conference standings. But they’ve yet to win a conference title under Pat Hill, so the question could be asked in some circles whether or not non-conference games are emphasized at the expense of league showdowns. Fresno State had a very good day offensively, putting up nearly 500 yards of offense in the overtime loss but they could have won had there not been three turnovers. Junior QB Ryan Colburn threw four touchdown passes by three picks? That can’t happen if you want to beat Wisconsin or some of the contenders within the WAC. Given what Nevada and Louisiana Tech have done so far, Fresno State may prove to be the biggest challenger to Boise State within the conference.

The Ultimate Schedule: Independents

Raphielle Johnson — Sun, 23 Aug 2009 22:02:18 -0700

To be frank, there are no rules when it comes to making up the ultimate schedule for the Independents. But instead of the requisite twelve games the schedule will have thirteen thanks to Navy’s trip to Hawaii. Look for an awful lot of Navy and Notre Dame since both are expected to have bowl-worthy campaigns.

Week 1: Navy @ Ohio State (September 5^th)

Navy has a tough task in the season opener: shut down Terrelle Pryor. The sophomore quarterback is firmly entrenched as the starter in Columbus and thus more comfortable in the position of team leader. Despite the loss of skill position players such as Beanie Wells, Brian Robiskie and Brian Hartline, the Buckeye offense could become more dangerous due to this development. Look for head coach Jim Tressel’s version of the “Pistol” offense, and a hard-nosed defense that physically could be up to the challenge that Navy’s option offense brings. Whether or not they can shut it down from a strategic point of view remains to be seen; this can be a more dangerous contest than many expect.

Week 2: Notre Dame @ Michigan (September 12^th)

Both teams are under pressure to produce better results in 2009. The Irish went just 7-6, leaving some to wonder whether or not anything less than eight wins would keep Charlie Weis in South Bend. The Wolverines went through some serious growing pains in the first year of the Rich Rodriguez era, going 3-9 due in large part to an offense in which the tools didn’t match the machine. The hope in Ann Arbor is that freshman Tate Forcier is ready to take control of the position, and the deep running back position can make some plays in the spread option system. The Irish are expected to be much better this season, maybe even BCS bowl good. Last year’s meeting was a blowout; don’t expect the same in 2009.

Week 3: Navy @ Pittsburgh (September 19^th)

An upset in the Steel City is possible since the one man that killed the Midshipmen last season is now in the NFL. LeSean McCoy was the catalyst for last year’s Panther victory, rushing for 156 yards and three touchdowns. The Panthers will now rely on a stable of running backs, and it’s a young group with first-years players leading the way. Meanwhile, the Pitt defense is expected to be solid despite the loss of leading tackler and overall leader Scott McKillop. Navy watched the Panthers show offensive balance in racking up 499 yards of offense (255 passing, 244 rushing), but due to the youth at running back look for Pitt to look to their talented wide receivers (Jonathan Baldwin being one) for more big plays.

Week 4: Bye Week (September 26^th)

Army does make a trip to Iowa State this weekend, but outside of that there isn’t much to look forward to on the final Saturday of September. Take the week off and get ready for the first game in the series for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy.

Week 5: Air Force @ Navy (October 3^rd)

The Midshipmen have held the aforementioned rivalry trophy for six consecutive seasons, and the run has coincided with their win streak over the Falcons. Air Force dominated the yardage department (411-244) and both teams finished with two turnovers apiece. The difference in Navy’s 33-27 win was special teams, more specifically two blocked punts that were returned for touchdowns by the Middies. Expect Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun to spend a lot of time in the practices leading up to the rematch working on the kicking game. Any game between the service academies promises to feature sixty minutes of competition, and with Army not winning the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy since 1996 this matchup will likely decide who holds the trophy.

Week 6: Vanderbilt @ Army (October 10^th)

The Black Knights host the Commodores, who went from perennial SEC doormat to bowl game winner in 2008. Bobby Johnson’s team has the ability to get back to a bowl game, and besides Florida there really isn’t an invincible team in the SEC East. It’ll be interesting to see how well the new double-eagle flex defensive scheme does with Rich Ellerson taking over at West Point, especially in facing a team with eight starters returning on offense.

Mackenzi Adams and Larry Smith will fight it out for the starting quarterback job, and with five starters back on the offensive line they could have enough experience to deal with the Army defense. Vandy also returns nine starters to their defense, with the only two losses coming in the secondary. At the very least, this is a good time to take in one of college football’s best sights: Michie Stadium, which has a beautiful view of the nearby Hudson River.

Week 7: USC @ Notre Dame (October 17^th)

According to many of the pundits the Irish essentially have a one-game season: beat the Trojans and not only does Notre Dame enter the BCS conversation but they also become part of the national title talk. That’s not the opinion here, but make no mistake about it when measuring the importance of this game. The Irish haven’t even been close to the Trojans in recent meetings since the infamous “Bush Push” in 2005, a period that has coincided with Notre Dame’s loss in national respect. With the Trojans breaking in a new quarterback and replacing some key contributors on defense could this be the year that Notre Dame beats the Trojans? Not sure about that, but at the least the Irish should be able to keep this one close.

Week 8: Boston College @ Notre Dame (October 24^th)

The Eagles and Fighting Irish have quite a history; unfortunately for Notre Dame they’ve been on the short end of the stick recently. Boston College has won six straight in the series, including a 17-0 win at The Heights last year. But things have changed for the Eagles, with Frank Spaziani the new head coach and nary a quarterback who has taken a live snap at the collegiate level. On paper the Irish will be a prohibitive favorite but things could become tight should Jimmy Clausen throw four interceptions as he did last year. But the role of underdog won’t be anything new for Boston College, which seems to come into this game with a chip on its shoulder every year. No one picked the Eagles to beat Notre Dame in 1993, and we all know what happened there.

Week 9: Temple @ Navy (October 31^st)

Al Golden’s Owls should be pretty good this season; the MAC media picked them to finish second in the MAC East behind defending league champion Buffalo. Temple returns seventeen starters but one of them is not QB Adam DiMichele, who lit up the Middies for 340 yards and three touchdowns in last year’s meeting. Temple actually led 27-7 in the fourth quarter before falling victim to a heartbreaking comeback. Navy tied the game on a fumble return by Clint Sovie with less than a minute to go and then won it in overtime (33-27) on a Ricky Dobbs 1-yard run. The ending wasn’t as bad as Baylor’s to UNLV a decade ago but it sure was close for Temple. Will lightning strike twice?

Week 10: Navy @ Notre Dame (November 7^th)

The Irish had won forty-three straight before the Midshipmen stunned them in South Bend two seasons ago. Now they return to the scene, this time encountering a far better product on the opposite side of the field. Notre Dame won last season’s meeting in Baltimore despite turning the ball over five times. How they won was on the ground, rushing for 230 yards. Outrushing the team that’s led the country in rush offense the past four years was an unexpected development, something the Irish can build on in this meeting due to the progress made in the passing game. The last two meetings have been close; a departure from the one-sided nature of the series, and hopefully this remains close as well.

Week 11: Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh (November 14^th)

Notre Dame hits the road to take on a Panther team that knocked them off in overtime a season ago. LeSean McCoy ran for 169 yards and a score in the 36-33 triumph, a game that the Irish probably left thinking they should have won. Pat Bostick was picked off three times and the Irish got one of the best games of the season from Jimmy Clausen. Bill Stull is now the starter at Pittsburgh, and the hope is that he can consistently get the ball to his numerous options in the passing game. Notre Dame’s secondary will be tested early and often due to the youth of the Pitt backfield; if they’re up to the task more interceptions could be the end result.

Week 12: Connecticut @ Notre Dame (November 21^st)

Yes more Notre Dame, this time for the first-ever meeting on the gridiron between the Huskies and Fighting Irish. Connecticut will unveil a new no-huddle look under new offensive coordinator Joe Moorehead, and Zach Frazer is the starter at quarterback thanks to a solid spring under center. Running backs Andre Dixon and Jordan Todman have the unenviable task of replacing the departed Donald Brown, and given the shaky nature of the passing game in the post-Dan Orlovsky era they’d better be ready to make some plays on the ground. This is a game that’s been handed to Notre Dame by the experts before a snap has been taken; they’d better be careful not to underestimate a team that consistently ranks at or near the top of the Big East in most defensive categories. Notre Dame could be two wins away from a BCS invite; both UConn and Stanford will be dangerous opponents.

Week 13: Navy @ Hawaii (November 28^th)

Opposites attract on the islands, with Navy visiting a Hawaii squad that aims to put the ball in the air on just about every down. The key stat will be time of possession. Both offenses are most effective when they control this area of the game. How Navy’s pass defense and Hawaii’s run defense hold up will ultimately determine who wins; neither offense is good enough in their “weakness” to pose a serious risk in those respective departments. Don’t expect the Midshipmen to get caught looking past the Warriors, but there’s a far bigger game looming on the horizon for them.

Week 14: Army vs. Navy (December 5^th in Philadelphia)

Unfortunately many have overlooked this game, putting it on the backburner in favor of conference championship games and other “big” contests played on the first Saturday of December. But this is one of the game’s best rivalries, as much for the sportsmanship on display throughout as for the hard-nosed play for sixty minutes. Navy has won the last seven games in the series, with none of those wins coming by fewer than twelve points.

No matter how bad the year may be going for the Black Knights, a win over Navy would dramatically change how the story of 2009 is to be told in the future.

Army could get nothing going in last year’s 34-0 loss, racking up just seven first downs and 154 yards of offense. Navy on the other hand rushed for 368 yards on the day, leaving no doubt in clinching their sixth straight Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy. Expect the Black Knights to be prohibitive underdogs once again; just don’t expect them to simply lie down. And the playing of each alma mater at game’s end is one of the more emotional moments in college football, especially for seniors who now know they’ll be a part of a bigger team in the coming months and years.

Independents Football Preview

Raphielle Johnson — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 00:53:52 -0700

Notre Dame wants a BCS bowl game

By Raphielle Johnson

Is Notre Dame head coach Charlie Weis sitting on a hot seat? Some may say so while others will state that he’s got more time to get the Irish back to being “Notre Dame”. But there is no argument when it comes to how important a big year would be for he and his program. After ending 2008 on an upswing thanks to a blowout of Hawaii in the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl, Notre Dame is expected by many to win at least nine games due to a schedule littered with winnable games. And Notre Dame has the talent back needed to accomplish such a feat, as well as grab a BCS at-large bid.

QB Jimmy Clausen took ownership of the offense in the offseason, hosting a few of the wide receivers at his home in California in order to build on-field chemistry. In 2008 Clausen completed 60.9% of his passes, throwing for 3,172 yards and twenty-five touchdowns. But the number the offensive coaches want cut down on his interceptions, which totaled seventeen. Luckily for Clausen, every key receiver from last season outside of David Grimes is back on campus.

Golden Tate, Michael Floyd, Duval Kamara and tight end Kyle Rudolph make up a quartet of receivers that can give opponents fits all season long. And in talking about the passing game one must not discount RB Armando Allen, who finished second on the team with fifty receptions in 2008. Allen was part of a three-back platoon in the run game, with Allen, Robert Hughes and James Aldridge all rushing for at least three hundred yards apiece. Jonas Gray also saw action and stands to add depth to the position. Up front the Irish return four starters with seniors Sam Young and Chris Stewart leading the way.

Defensively, Notre Dame will need to return more than a few contributors to the 2008 edition. Six starters return, but the Irish will have to replace defensive mainstays David Bruton and Maurice Crum Jr. Leading tackler Kyle McCarthy, who finished 2008 with 110 tackles and two interceptions, is back as is fellow safety Harrison Smith. Linebacker is a position where youngsters could make the biggest impact, with Brian Smith being the lone returning starter at the position. Senior Toryan Smith has a wealth of experience, and he’ll now start in the middle.

Strongside linebacker will be an interesting competition to watch, with senior Scott Smith looking to hold off challenges from sophomores Darius Fleming and Steve Filer. Other youngsters expected to earn snaps this season include sophomores David Posluszny and Anthony McDonald, and highly touted freshman Manti Te’o. The secondary may be in the best shape of any unit despite the graduation of Bruton.

The aforementioned McCarthy and Harrison Smith are back, as is corner Raeshon McNeil. McNeil finished 2008 with two interceptions, tying McCarthy in that category for the returnees. The special teams will also be solid thanks to the abilities of kicker Brandon Walker and punter Eric Maust. Both will be challenged by freshmen in the form of kicker Nick Tausch and punter Ben Turk and the Irish will also look to duplicate 2008’s kick return unit, which led the nation by allowing just 16.5 yards per kickoff return.

The pieces are there for a run back to the BCS, especially considering the personnel losses that hit many of their opponents on the 2009 schedule. But has Notre Dame matured enough to handle the heightened expectations? That’s a question that will have to be answered in time.

Army

West Point will welcome a new head coach in 2009, with Rich Ellerson arriving by way of Cal Poly with the hope of kick-starting one of the game’s storied programs. Ellerson is one of college football’s leading experts on the triple option offense and had much success at the FCS level with the Mustangs. After failed attempts to “modernize” the offensive system the Black Knights have decided that they need to get back to their “roots”, and the hiring of Ellerson is a great move in that direction.

Due to the difference in talent pools that they can recruit from, the service academies have leaned upon option offenses for years. The objective of the coaching staff in the spring was to make sure they had players in the positions where they’d be most effective within the triple option system. That’s why you’ll see 6-foot-10 Ali Villanueva, who started spring drills by moving from tackle to guard, now on the field as…a starter at wide receiver. Damion Hunter and Davyd Brooks are more established at the position and will also see plenty of snaps.

But the key positions in the triple option are the spots in the backfield. Chip Bowden and Max Williams entered fall camp in a tight battle for the starting spot, and senior Carson Williams and sophomore Jimmy Reiter will also work in hopes of garnering a look under center. There were also changes on the line with Coach Ellerson favoring slimmer linemen that can move their feet, thus making the triple option a true threat to defenses. If your linemen can’t move with fluidity you’re going to have a hard time springing the option attack loose.

CeDarius Williams will look to replace the departed Collin Mooney at fullback, and that will not be an easy task. Mooney rushed for 1,339 yards in 2008, breaking the school’s single-season yardage record (considering that Army also produced Glenn Davis and Felix “Doc” Blanchard, “Mr. Inside and Mr. Outside”, that’s an amazing feat). Slotbacks Patrick Mealy, Jameson Carter, Ian Smith and George Fletcher are all in the running to see playing time as well; everyone will be given a fair chance to go out and earn snaps.

The lines are in a state of change, with the offensive line looking to get quicker and the defensive line getting acquainted with the “Double Eagle Flex” system that Coach Ellerson actually helped devise. The work of he and others on that Arizona coaching staff resulted in “Desert Swarm”, a defense that took the Arizona program from national unknown to household name in the mid-90s. Co-defensive coordinators Chris Smeland and Payaam Saadat spent all spring going over this system, one that can be a hit with players due to its attacking nature. If Mike Gann can stay healthy after missing most of 2008 he’ll be a very good fit for the defense at defensive tackle. He and Victor Ugenyi will be counted on to shore up the middle, while ends Josh McNary, Milton Holmes and Carson Homme will all have ample opportunities to make plays.

At linebacker Stephen Anderson is the lone returning starter, leading the Black Knights with eighty-two tackles in 2008. Due to a hamstring injury during the spring other players (notably Bill Prosko and Andre Shinda) got an opportunity to compete at middle linebacker in Anderson’s stead. Steve Erzinger is the likely starter at rover, and Andrew Rodriguez had an impressive spring at the whip linebacker position. It will take some time for the defense to take shape, but the Black Knights will attack.

The secondary has a lot of experience, with Mario Hill and Jordan Trimble being the leading candidates to start at corner. Safeties Donovan Travis and Desmond Lamb are just two players with game experience who should fit into the new system quite well. Matt Campbell performed well as the placekicker in 2008, but there is a question to be answered in regards to the punting job. It may be a bit too much to expect huge strides in the won-lost record for Army, but if they can improve upon last season’s win total (3) it would be a good start to the Ellerson era.

Navy

Head coach Ken Niumatalolo had a tough task in front of him in taking over for the departed Paul Johnson in 2008. But there wasn’t drop in Annapolis with the Midshipmen winning eight games and the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy. The Midshipmen have now won the trophy symbolic of the series between Air Force, Army and Navy for six consecutive seasons, and they’ve beaten their two biggest rivals a combined thirteen consecutive times. Also to Navy’s credit are four straight seasons leading the nation in rushing offense, averaging 292.4 yards per game.

Navy has a number of experienced players back on campus, with quarterback Ricky Dobbs looking to lead the Midshipmen back to a bowl game. Dobbs played in eight games last season despite the presence of Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada and Jarod Bryant, rushing for more than 500 yards on the season. But the question will be in the backfield, with leading rushers Shun White and Eric Kettani both graduating. Alexander Teich has the inside track on the fullback position while Bobby Doyle and Marcus Curry left spring on top of the depth chart at the slotback positions.

Navy also enjoys the comforts of having some experience at wide receiver as well as on the offensive line. Mario Washington and Mike Schnupp are the likely starters and they’ll have a lot to do in replacing 2008 leading receiver Tyree Barnes. On the offensive line LG Osei Asante leads a group that features two seniors and two juniors heading into 2009. Sophomore Brady DeMell is the lone underclassman starting on the offensive line this season.

Defensively the Midshipmen return a number of experienced options on all three levels. Jabaree Tuani, who was named ECAC Rookie of the Year last season, is back on the defensive line as are seniors Michael Walsh, Matt Nechak and Jordan Stephens. But for as much experience as there is up front, the linebackers may make up the best group within the defense. Ross Pospisil, Clint Sovie and Ram Vela are all back for one more rodeo, as are inside linebacker Tony Haberer and outside linebacker Craig Schaefer. In a 3-4 scheme you’re only as good as your linebackers, and the Midshipmen have some very good answers at the position.

The secondary has just one senior starter in corner Blake Carter, and he’s also the secondary’s leading returning interceptor with just one pick. Players such as Carter, free safety Kwesi Mitchell and rover Wyatt Middleton will have their work cut out for them in replacing standouts such as Rashawn King and Ketric Buffin, both of whom tallied three interceptions in 2008. If the secondary can make strides in fall camp Navy would essentially be a lock to go bowling once again.

However, the kicking game will be an area to watch as well. Punter Kyle Delahooke is back after averaging 41.6 yards per punt in 2008, but how will Coach Niumatalolo go about replacing the reliable Matt Harmon? Sophomore Jon Teague led the kicking battle heading into fall camp, but he’s yet to attempt a field goal at the collegiate level.

Also working against the Midshipmen in regards to answering questions about the secondary and kicking game are the first three games of the season: at Ohio State, Louisiana Tech and at Pittsburgh. That could put their streak of six straight seasons with eight wins or more in jeopardy.

Storyline: Can Notre Dame take advantage of a manageable schedule and get back into BCS bowl contention?

Players of the Year: Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen and Notre Dame SS Kyle McCarthy

How they’ll finish

Notre Dame 9-3

Navy 7-6

Army 3-9

Next: Independents Ultimate Schedule

Patriot League Tournament: Preview & Prediction

Evan Dorey — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 14:09:29 -0800

This is one in a series of conference tournament previews, in which I run down all the teams involved, give a brief statistical review and present the log5 projections, using in-conference offensive and defensive efficiency. The basic log5 methodology comes from Bill James, and this is an area Ken Pomeroy has looked at in the past as well. I claim nothing new in the application, but obviously with slightly different methodologies, these numbers may differ from others you find. I don’t claim to be an expert on any particular conference, and I’m sure there are some mis-characterizations on some players I’ve seen sparingly at best, so please add your thoughts in the comments. Anyway, with no further ado, the preview follows below:

Patriot League Championship

The Patriot League Tournament features all league teams, with all games being hosted at the higher seed.

Tournament Odds

#	Team	SF	F	W
1	American	99.07%	97.22%	86.03%
2	Holy Cross	93.81%	80.21%	12.37%
3	Navy	85.31%	17.26%	1.28%
4	Army	66.79%	1.75%	0.16%
5	Lehigh	33.21%	0.83%	0.08%
6	Colgate	14.69%	1.39%	0.04%
7	Bucknell	6.19%	1.14%	0.03%
8	Lafayette	0.93%	0.19%	0.01%

Between their domination of the league and the home court advantage, American is the single most dominant favorite in any conference tournament of the season. Holy Cross seem to have the only serious chance of stopping the Eagles’ run.

#1 – American Eagles (21-7, 13-1) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.219

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2008 (1^st Round)

After earning its first NCAA Tournament berth last season, American doesn’t seem like it’ll take long to get its second, having lost just once since late December, and entering the tournament on a 10-game winning streak. It might be easier to list what American doesn’t do better than anyone else in the league, it’s so dominant. The Eagles are excellent shooters, 47% overall and at nearly 40% from behind the arc. They take a lot of threes, and play a slow, deliberate offense that focuses on ball control. They are also the best at defending shots in the PL, allowing opponents the same percentage from two that they shoot from three themselves. The Eagles also dominate the defensive glass, so opponents have a lot of one-miss-and-out possessions.

Players to watch:

5-11 SR Garrison Carr, 17.6 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 50.7 eFG% - Carr leads the Eagles in scoring, and is basically the only guy who takes threes on the team, his 251 attempts about the same as the rest of the team combined. He’s made nearly 38% of them, nearly as good a percentage as his two-point attempts. He’s a typical sort of high-usage player, providing solid efficiency over a large number of possessions, and freeing up other players into smaller, more effective roles.

6-8 SR Brian Gilmore, 11.8 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 60.7 eFG% - Gilmore is the main option for American inside, a very good inside scorer with a great touch from outside as well. He leads the team in rebounding, but his rates on the boards aren’t particularly good. While he doesn’t often put up a big number, he chips in with effective shooting down low.

#2 – Holy Cross Crusaders (16-13, 11-3) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.114

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2007 (1^st Round)

Holy Cross had a poor non-conference season, picking up a number of bad losses (including three against the Ivy), but turned it on when Patriot play started, and were the only team to beat American. The Crusaders dominated the rest of the league as well, and have the second best offense and defense, behind only the Eagles. Holy Cross depends on getting the ball inside to score, and going 50% on two-point shots makes up for struggles with long-distance shots and free-throws. It’s a good offensive rebounding team, and distributes the ball well, but turns the ball over too often to be really efficient. Defensively, the word is possessions. The Crusaders are decent at stopping shots, but really shine at denying opponents chances with turnovers and rebounds.

Players to watch:

6-9 SO Andrew Keister, 9.0 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 59.6 eFG% - Keister may not be the Crusaders’ first option, but he’s the most efficient offensive player by a wide margin. That tends to happen when you lead the team in rebounding and shoot a better percentage from the field (60%) than from the stripe (56%).

6-4 SR Colin Cunningham, 8.6 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.8 SPG, 47.1 eFG% - If Cunningham were a half-decent three point shooter, he’d be an excellent player. However, his 29% mark from beyond the arc really drags him down. Beyond that, he’s a good ball distribution guard who leads the league in steals.

#3 – Navy Midshipmen (19-10, 8-6) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.030

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1998 (1^st Round)

Navy first came to my attention when it shot 71% from the field in beating Texas San Antonio, but it couldn’t keep that level of play when conference play came around, and ended up hanging just above .500 the whole season. The Midshipmen are a step down from the two leading teams on the offensive end, but are still clearly better than the teams below them. They play a fairly quick style that depends on avoiding turnovers, where they are best in the conference, and making long-distance shots, where they are only average. Navy is a pretty good team at defending the perimeter, but get beaten out inside, and are only an average league defense.

Players to watch:

6-4 SR Kaleo Kina, 17.9 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.4 SPG, 44.4 eFG% - Kina leads the Midshipmen in scoring, rebounds, assists and steals, and when his shooting touch is on, he’s as dangerous a scorer as there is in the league. The problem comes when his shots aren’t falling, as he is capable of some frightening lines, especially from three, where he shoots just 25%.

6-2 JR Chris Harris, 15.7 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 1.4 SPG, 48.3 eFG% - Harris is the team’s second leading scorer, and takes the majority of his shots from behind the arc, where he makes a better percentage than he shoots inside.

#4 – Army Black Knights (10-18, 6-8) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.052

Last NCAA Tournament bid: None

Army has had one of the nation’s worst offenses, and the worst in the Patriot League, so its 6-8 final record is a testament to its ability to defend. The Black Knights are decent shooters, 41 % overall, but struggle inside, and lose so many possessions with poor rebounding and turnovers that that their shooting doesn’t really matter. Army defends shots well, and forces a lot of turnovers, good enough for the Patriot’s third-best defense, but not good enough to keep up with the conference leaders.

Players to watch:

6-3 JR Cleveland Richard, 11.8 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 1.6 SPG, 53.9 eFG% - Richard is the Black Knights’ main threat from behind the arc, and the team’s leading scorer. The team is quite deep, using a lot of players, but Richards’ shooting ability clearly sets him apart.

5-11 JR Josh Miller, 9.2 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 3.4 APG, 45.5 eFG% - The team’s best ball distribution guard, Miller doesn’t score much, and his two point shooting is a weakness at just 43%.

#5 – Lehigh Mountain Hawks (15-13, 5-9) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.057

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2004 (Play-In)

There’s not much separating the teams in slots 4-7, and the Mountain Hawks’ trip to Army to open the tournament should be a good one, if the triple overtime game the two played in the regular season is any indication. Lehigh’s in-conference inconsistency can be blamed, for a large part, on their shooting, which is among the worst in the nation, and easily the worst in the PL. It especially struggles from two, where it takes the majority of its shots, and even good rebounding and interior defense weren’t enough to get it to the .500 mark.

Players to watch:

5-11 JR Marquis Hall, 14.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 4.0 APG, 1.7 SPG, 44.7 eFG% - Hall is the first part of Lehigh’s inside-outside duo, and is a good guard in every area but his shot. He’s a decent rebounder, and has a very good assist rate, but his shooting inside the arc is quite weak, and is the major failing in his game.

6-7 JR Zahir Carrington, 14.0 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 44.2 eFG% - The conference’s leading rebounder, Carrington’s 44% from the floor is pretty disappointing, and really reduces his effectiveness as an offensive option. He does get a good number of points at the free throw line, where he makes fairly frequent appearances.

#6 – Colgate Red Raiders (9-19, 5-9) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.060

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1996 (1^st Round)

Colgate sat at 5-5 with two-and-a-half weeks left in the season, but a disastrous end to the season that included a tough series of road games saw them slump into the bottom portion of the conference. The Red Raiders are an average offensive team, though their slow pace makes them seem less potent then they are. They sit fifth in FG% and turnovers, so the middle-of-the pack overall efficiency fits with a balanced, mediocre unit. Defensively, they manage to hold opponents to a reasonable percentage, but have trouble stopping opponents from getting a possession advantage, with their rebounding a major culprit.

Players to watch:

6-6 JR Ben Jonson, 10.2 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 49.7 eFG% - The junior forward is Colgate’s best option inside, and has really upped his level of play while taking on a larger role. He’s a solid rebounder, and is a good scorer from the floor who puts up a lot of points at the free throw line.

6-1 SO Mike Venezia, 10.6 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 44.5 eFG% - Venezia leads the Red Raiders in scoring, but his shot needs a lot of work, especially with his 41% inside. Considering that he doesn’t contribute many steals or assists, he’s a very inefficient player when his shots aren’t falling, which is fairly often.

#7 – Bucknell Bison (7-22, 4-10) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.055

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2006 (2^nd Round)

Just three years removed from the second of their pair of memorable NCAA runs, the Bison have shown just how fleeting success can be, slipping to a spot just above the Patriot League cellar. The Bison are good shooters, and don’t turn the ball over much, but are woefully outclassed inside, putting up one of the nation’s worst two-point percentages. Likewise, they defend the three well, but allow opponents to score with relative ease inside. A couple of things don’t quite fit with this profile; Bucknell forces very few turnovers, but is excellent at defensive rebounding, despite playing at a fairly high pace.

Players to watch:

6-8 JR Patrick Behan, 13.8 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 45.8 eFG% - Behan fits with what we’ve seen from several Patriot League forwards, a good rebounder who takes a lot of his team’s shots, but doesn’t shoot a particularly good percentage.

6-1 SR Justin Castleberry, 11.5 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 44.5 eFG% - Castleberry has a good scoring average, but not much else; he put up a good steal rate, and he’s a decent three-point shooter, but his sub-40% shooting from two means he’s a pretty inefficient player.

#8 – Lafayette Leopards (8-21, 4-10) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.117

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2000 (1^st Round)

When I’ve been describing some of the teams above as relatively poor defensively, this has been within the context of the Patriot League, where the average team has scored well below a point-per-possession. Lafayette is the only team that allows more than that, and have been easily the worst team in the conference. The Leopards’ opponents shoot 47% from the field, and manage to score inside and outside with equal impunity. Lafayette also commits a lot of fouls, giving opponents even more high-percentage chances. Offensively, Lafayette are about average in the conference, a three-heavy offense that doesn’t shoot a great long distance percentage, but is effective inside and at the line.

Players to watch:

6-2 SR Jeff Kari, 10.6 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.7 APG, 48.2 eFG% - Kari is 2^nd on the team in scoring, but he’s not a particularly effective guard, having an even assist/turnover ratio and a below average shot inside and outside.

5-11 SR Andrew Brown, 13.6 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 3.1 APG, 43.6 eFG% - Lafayette’s leading scorer and assist man, Brown is another player who’s struggled to make shots, below 30% from three and under 35% overall.

My statistical all-Patriot League team:

American SR G Garrison Carr, 17.6 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 50.7 eFG%

Navy SR G Kaleo Kina, 17.9 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.4 SPG, 44.4 eFG

Navy JR G Chris Harris, 15.7 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 1.4 SPG, 48.3 eFG%

Army JR G Cleveland Richard, 11.8 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 1.6 SPG, 53.9 eFG%

American SR F Brian Gilmore, 11.8 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 60.7 eFG%

Patroit League Tournament: Quarterfinals Preview

Press Release — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 07:28:21 -0800

Center Valley, Pa. - The quest for the 2009 Patriot League Men's Basketball Championship begins with the quarterfinal round on Wednesday, with defending champion American playing as the No. 1 seed and hosting No. 8 Lafayette. No. 2 Holy Cross hosts No. 7 Bucknell, No. 3 Navy takes on No. 6 Colgate and No. 4 Army hosts No. 5 Lehigh in the other three contests.

Patriot League Quarterfinal Preview

It's win or go home time in Patriot League men's basketball, as the League Tournament tips off with the quarterfinal round on Wednesday. The evening's action begins at 7 p.m. with No. 7 seed Bucknell at No. 2 Holy Cross, No. 6 Colgate at No. 3 Navy and No. 5 Lehigh at No. 4 Army. The No. 1 seeded American Eagles begin defense of their League title at 7:30 p.m. at Bender Arena against No. 8 Lafayette. The winner of the Lehigh/Army game plays the winner of Lafayette/American in the semifinals on Sunday, with the winners on the other side of the bracket also facing off that day. All Patriot League Tournament games are played at the site of the higher seed, with the Championship on March 13

The Eagles won the Patriot League with a 13-1 mark in the regular season, claiming the top seed in the Tournament for the second year in a row. They are led by senior guards Derrick Mercer and Garrison Carr. Mercer was named Patriot League Player of the Year on Monday, while Carr earned his second consecutive First-Team All-League award. The Eagles are tied for third in the nation with a 10-game winning streak, and have victories in 16 of their last 17 games. Lafayette is led by senior guard Andrew Brown, who averages 13.6 points per game.

The Mountain Hawks and Black Knights play in the quarterfinals for the third year in a row. Lehigh is led by First-Team All-League selection Marquis Hall and Second-Team All-League choice Zahir Carrington. Army places 34th in the country in scoring defense, and has Patriot League Defensive Player of the year Marcus Nelson and Second-Team All-League pick Cleveland Richard on its side.

Bucknell and Holy Cross are meeting in the Patriot Leaguue Tournament for a record 12th time, with the Bison holding a 6-5 edge thus far. Bucknell is led by Second-Team All-League choice Patrick Behan, who has five consecutive 20-point games. Holy Cross boasts First-Team All-League pick Andrew Keister and Patriot League Rookie of the Year R.J. Evans for a team that went 11-3 in Patriot League action.

Colgate and Navy face off in Annapolis after just playing on Saturday in a game won by the Mids. The Raiders have lost five consecutive games coming into action, but do have three players scoring around 10 points per contest. Navy boasts First-Team All-Patriot League choice Kaleo Kina and Second-Team All-League pick Chris Harris, who each finished in the top three in overall and League only scoring in 2008-09.

Patriot League Notebook

American Enters Exclusive Company in League Annals

By clinching the No. 1 seed in the Patriot League Tournament, American become the first team since Lafayette in 1998-00 to earn the top seed in consecutive seasons. The Leopards are the only program to earn three straight No. 1 seeds, with Colgate (1995-96)?and Fordham (1990-91) the others to do it in consecutive years. American is also the first team in League annals to earn sole possession of the regular-season title for two straight seasons. The Eagles will play as the No. 1 seed in the Tournament for the third time in eight years as a League member, with the other instance in 2002. American has captured a top four seed in each of its League seasons.

No. 1 Usually Ends Up No. 1

If history rings true, American has to like its chances as the No. 1 seed with home court throughout the Patriot League Tournament. The top seed has won 14 of the 18 League Tournaments, and has advanced to the title game every season. American continued that trend by winning the Championship as the No. 1 seed last year.

Repeat Is No Unusual Feat

Also in the Eagles' favor is the history of repeat champions in the Patriot League. There have already been six repeat champions in League annals, with just four champions earning only a single crown. Lehigh is the only Patriot League program to win one title but never repeat as a champion, a distinction the Eagles will try to avoid joining this season.

-- From PatriotLeague.org

Metro Ranking and Report: Update #6

Raphielle Johnson — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 23:06:02 -0800

Conference Honors

America East: Despite their loss at Binghamton on Monday night it was a good week for Stony Brook, who won games at Air Force and defending America East champ UMBC. Junior Muhammad El-Amin shared the conference Player of the Week award with New Hampshire's Alvin Abreu, and freshman Bryan Dougher was named America East Rookie of the Week. While El-Amin accounted for 19.5 points and 4.0 rebounds in the two wins, Dougher averaged 20.5 points per game.

Big East: St. John's guard Paris Horne was named to the league's honor roll for his play in a 1-1 week for the Red Storm. In their upset of #10 Notre Dame on Saturday Horne scored fourteen points, and he averaged fifteen per game along with three steals for the two games.

Ivy League: Columbia freshman Norwua Agho was named Ivy League Rookie of the Week for his play in two tough losses for the Lions. In games against Sacred Heart and Lehigh Agho averaged 14.5 points, 2.5 rebounds and 2.0 steals. Area players named to the conference's Honor Roll include Columbia guard Kevin Bulger, Princeton guard Dan Mavraides and Yale forward Ross Morin.

MAAC: Marist guard R.J. Hall was named the league's Rookie of the Week for his play in games against Binghamton and Rider. Hall averaged 15.5 points per game and shot 55.6% from behind the arc.

NEC: Area players snagged both honors in the NEC this week, with FDU guard Sean Baptiste taking Choice Hotels NEC Player of the Week and Long Island's Julian Boyd being named Choice Hotels NEC Rookie of the Week. Baptiste averaged 25.3 points per game last week, while Boyd posted averages of eight points and six rebounds per game.

Weekly Honors

Team of the Week: Stony Brook

What they did: Road wins at Air Force (67-64) and UMBC (69-61)

Head coach Steve Pikiell has this team headed in the right direction, even with a loss on Monday night to a hot Binghamton team on the road. But for the Seawolves to get out of this three-game stretch on the road with a record of 2-1 is something that needs to be acknowledged. Winning in Clune Arena is tough for Mountain West teams, so for Stony Brook to go out west and pull out a close win is pretty impressive. Combine this with their win in Baltimore over the defending conference champions on Saturday and you've got two pieces of evidence that this program is moving up in the America East pecking order.

Newcomers Muhammad El-Amin and Bryan Dougher were both honored by the conference for their play, but the two wins were also results of solid defense (holding UMBC to 35.9% from the field) and rebounding (33-23 edge on the boards at Air Force helped counteract the Falcons shooting 52.8%; Stony Brook attempted nineteen more shots as a result). If the Seawolves can keep this effort up they'll have a serious shot at moving into the middle of the pack in America East.

Also deserving praise for their play last week are Long Island (home wins over Central Connecticut State and Sacred Heart moved the Blackbirds to 3-1 in the NEC), Rider (wins over Iona and Marist have the Broncs at 3-0 in the MAAC) and St. John's (recovering from a serious beating at Providence to knock off then-#10 Notre Dame at MSG).

Player of the Week: Sean Baptiste (Fairleigh Dickinson)

While he didn't start off the week in the best form, scoring just eight points in a loss to Rhode Island, Baptiste more than made up for that in the Knights' win over Quinnipiac on Saturday. 37 points and eight rebounds on 12-18 shooting from the field; simply put the junior guard was in a zone that some would have a hard time believing to be true. FDU may be 2-11 overall, with the newcomers still struggling to mesh in head coach Tom Green's system, but Baptiste has had a major role in both wins that also have the Knights right in the middle of the NEC standings at 2-2. One of the better guards in the metropolitan area, don't let his efforts get lost in the shuffle like the exploits of Manny Ubilla did last year.

Other players who should be mentioned (besides those honored by their conferences) include Rutgers' Mike Rosario (19.3 ppg in losses to North Carolina, Pittsburgh and Connecticut), Seton Hall's Jeremy Hazell (26 ppg in losses to Syracuse and West Virginia) and St. John's D.J. Kennedy (20 points, 10 rebounds in the Red Storm's 71-65 win over Notre Dame).

Schedule (January 6th-12th)

Tuesday January 6th

7 PM: Fairfield @ Army
8 PM: #17 Villanova @ Seton Hall The Pirates weren't done any favors in regards to their conference schedule, and they could be in serious jeopardy of starting Big East play 0-4. Visit a ranked Syracuse, host a West Virginia team that should have been ranked a few weeks ago...and follow those two blowout losses with Villanova. The backcourt matchups should be entertaining, but that's not the area of concern for the Pirates. John Garcia will have to work himself back into shape due to the time he missed with a knee injury, and neither Mike Davis or Brandon Walters have stepped up to fill that void. 6-6, 180-pound Robert Mitchell is playing the four, and while some may cite the fact that Brian Laing played that role at times last season you have to keep in mind that the now-departed Laing was much stronger than Mitchell is. Bobby Gonzalez needs this win in the worst way if the Pirates are to keep alive fleeting hopes of a postseason bid.

Wednesday January 7th

7 PM: St. Bonaventure @ Fordham
Delaware @ Hofstra This sets up to be a key game in the CAA with both teams sporting 1-2 league records. Hofstra was ice-cold from the field in their loss to Drexel on Saturday, but they take on a Delaware team that has allowed 72.6 points per game on the year. That could be enough to snap Tom Pecora's team out of their current slump, but the Blue Hens have a trio of outstanding guards in Jawan Carter, Alphonso Dawson and Marc Egerson, all of whom average at least fifteen points per game. Even with George Mason and Northeastern leading the CAA with 3-0 records, this conference is shaping up to be an absolute dogfight, especially in the middle of the standings.
Bryant @ LIU
Yale @ NJIT
7:30: #15 Marquette @ Rutgers

Thursday January 8th

7 PM: FDU @ Mount St. Mary's
Wagner @ Central Connecticut State
St. Francis (PA) @ Sacred Heart
Maine @ Stony Brook This one sets up to be a test for how much the Seawolves have improved given the fact that on paper they should beat the Black Bears at home. Winning games you're expected to win is another step in going from also-ran to a player in your conference race. If Muhammad El-Amin and Bryan Dougher can continue their solid play of late, look for Stony Brook to pick up another conference win in their first America East home game of the year.

Friday January 9th

7 PM: NJIT @ Columbia
Fairfield @ Loyola (MD)
Marist @ Manhattan
Rider @ Siena Rider is just a half-game behind overwhelming favorite Siena in the MAAC standings, but a look at their three league wins (Manhattan, Iona and Marist) may have some wondering of the Broncs are once again a contender. Ryan Thompson is up to his usual tricks, filling just about every column imaginable on a stat sheet and he's been helped by senior guard Harris Mansell and sophomore forward Mike Ringgold. The individual matchup between Thompson and Siena's Edwin Ubiles should be worth the price of admission itself, and the Broncs may still be smarting over the blowout they suffered in last year's MAAC Tournament final. Rest assured we'll know a lot more about Tommy Dempsey's team after this game.
Niagara @ St. Peter's
Canisius @ Iona

Saturday January 10th

Noon: Hofstra @ VCU
2 PM: Seton Hall @ #13 Notre Dame
Hartford @ Yale
4 PM: Colgate @ Army
Robert Morris @ Sacred Heart While neither team was picked to win the NEC, both are expected to be in the race throughout the season. And with preseason pick (and defending tournament champ) Mount St. Mary's sitting at 0-3 right now the winner stands to pick up some important separation in what should be a hotly-contested race. The Pioneers will have to account for Colonials' guard Jeremy Chappell, who's currently averaging just over seventeen points per game and also leads the team in rebounding. With four players averaging double digits Dave Bike's team is more balanced that Robert Morris, and they'll have to use that to their advantage in this one.
4:30: Mount St. Mary's @ St. Francis (NY)
7 PM: FDU @ Central Connecticut State
LIU @ Wagner
7:30: #9 Syracuse @ Rutgers

Sunday January 11th

Noon: St. John's @ #1 Pittsburgh
1 PM: #18 Xavier @ Fordham
2 PM: Loyola (MD) @ St. Peter's
Iona @ Rider
3 PM: Canisius @ Fairfield
4 PM: Siena @ Manhattan the Jaspers, my pick to be a sleeper in the MAAC this season, get a shot at the defending champs in Draddy Gymnasium. Both Chris Smith and Darryl Crawford have stepped up on the scoreboard this season, but this is a game in which head coach Barry Rohrssen will need outstanding performances from his two established stars (Antoine Pearson and Devon Austin) in order to pull off the upset. The frontcourt will also have to play to its full capability, with Siena having one of the league's best power forwards in Alex Franklin.
Niagara @ Marist

Updated Ranking (previous week in parentheses)

1. St. John's (10-4; 2)
2. Seton Hall (9-5; 1)
3. Rider (8-5; 8)
4. Fairfield (8-6; 3)
5. Rutgers (9-6; 5)
6. Hofstra (9-5; 4)
7. Wagner (9-4; 7)
8. Stony Brook (8-6; 9)
9. Manhattan (8-6; 6)
10. Marist (6-10; 10)
11. Iona (6-9; 11)
12. LIU (6-7; 14)
13. Sacred Heart (4-9; 12)
14. Columbia (4-9; 13)
15. Princeton (3-8; 16)
16. Yale (3-9; 15)
17. Army (4-9; 18)
18. Monmouth (4-12; 20)
19. St. Francis (NY) (3-10; 17)
20. St. Peter's (4-10; 21)
21. FDU (2-12; 19)
22. Fordham (2-10; 22)
23. NJIT (0-14; 23)

NYC Metro Hoops