GameNight

UNC vs Michigan St: Title Game Preview/Prediction

Evan Dorey — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 11:03:03 -0400

Start: Apr 6 2009 - 9:21pm

After #1 North Carolina (33-4, 13-3) defeated #2 Michigan St. (31-6, 15-3) by 35 in early December, it seemed somewhat absurd to suggest that we might see a rematch of that game in Detroit. Four months later, though, that's exactly what we'll get, as the ACC and Big Ten champions will face off in the national championship game.

Season Rewind: North Carolina's closest game in the tournament thus far came against Oklahoma, a 12-point victory; the Tar Heels have cruised through all of their games, and not faced any kind of close finish. LSU was the only team to stay with them in the second half, but a stretch run easily put the Tigers away. Michigan St. has had to survive a couple of late challenges, as games with both USC and Kansas came down to the final minutes. The Spartans' last two games saw them pull away from quality Big East teams, and they will have 70,000 partisan fans at their back in this game.

There's not a whole lot that can be learned from the December blowout, especially since Michigan St. was playing without big man Goran Suton at the time. The Heels shot nearly 50% from the field in that game, while holding Michigan St. to just 35%, but the biggest difference was probably turnovers, as UNC committed just 9 to the Spartans' 21. Tyler Hansbrough went off for 25-and-11, but he'll find the going more difficult inside with Suton in the game.

UNC O vs Michigan St D: North Carolina has the country's best offense; shooting well from long-range, but getting most of its chances inside the arc, especially in transition. The Heels also do an excellent job of holding onto the ball and are strong on the offensive glass, meaning that they manage to convert most of their possessions into high-percentage chances. Even when their shooting is only average, as it was in the Villanova game, their ability in other offensive areas allows them to stay fairly efficient. Based on its performance over the first 30 games, Michigan St. should have trouble defending the interior, but they've defended the paint excellently during the tournament. They held UConn under 45% and Louisville under 40% on two-point shots. The really positive thing for the Spartans is that these two games were played at very different paces, suggesting that they'll be comfortable at a wide range of speeds. They should cause trouble for UNC on perimeter shots, and will face a tough battle on the defensive glass, but their ability to control the Heels' chances in transition will be key.

Michigan St O vs UNC D: Tom Izzo's teams have a reputation for being strong on the glass, and this year's offense is no exception, getting back 41% of its missed shots. The problem is that there are often a lot of misses, as the Spartans shoot under 50% inside the arc, where the majority of their shots are taken. However, North Carolina is not particularly good at defending the glass, including allowing Villanova to grab nearly 40% of misses on Saturday night. While turnovers were decisive in the first game, the Heels haven't forced that many in the NCAA tournament, and likely won't get the same magnitude of advantage in this game. North Carolina has been strong defending shots over the last few games, including holding Villanova to just 33% from the field, and allowing just 14-of-69 from behind the arc in its last three games. With a rebounding deficit a likely possibility, keeping up this defensive effort will be critical to keeping the Michigan St. offense under wraps.

UNC Lineup: No player in the country is as efficient as UNC's Ty Lawson, who can score inside and outside and runs the Carolina offense like clockwork. He's the best player left in the tournament, and Carolina's title hopes will be heavily tied to his performance. He was the game's top scorer against Villanova, and came within range of a triple-double, a feat he also came close to in the first Michigan St. game. Tyler Hansbrough leads the Heels in scoring and rebounding, and has been solid at generating inside shots and chances from the line without turning the ball over. His offensive game hasn't been that great of late, but he's still a significant threat, and Michigan St. will need to do a better job of containing him than in the teams' first encounter. Junior Wayne Ellington is another excellent scoring option who shoots very well and doesn't make a lot of mistakes. He wasn't great against Oklahoma (his lone off game in weeks), but lit up Villanova from behind the arc. Danny Green is a good long-distance shooter, while Deon Thompson doesn't chip in with a lot of offense, but is solid when called upon. Ed Davis could be a very important player in controlling the Spartans on the boards: he has the team's best rebounding rate. His offensive game is still a work in progress, but the advantage he can provide inside is significant.

Michigan St Lineup: I'm far from the biggest fan of Michigan St.'s Kalin Lucas (Gus Johnson is..), but he stepped up when it mattered by scoring a game-high 21 against UConn. Lucas leads the Spartans in scoring and assists, and does a pretty good job of ball control, but his shooting can be suspect, barely at 40% from the field over the season. When he's hitting threes, as he did on Saturday, that makes up for his poor shooting inside, but when he isn't, he can end up wasting shots. The difference maker between the two meetings could very well be Goran Suton. Suton led the Big Ten in rebounding, and while he did little against UConn inside, he was very effective in Indianapolis, where he averaged nearly 20 points over the two games. Raymar Morgan answered all the questions about his fitness with an excellent 18-and-9 performance, which was further complemented by his career-high five steals. He was the only player to give UNC trouble in the first game, and will need a repeat performance to give Michigan St. a chance. Beyond these three, a fairly deep group of reasonably effective bench players get a good chunk of minutes for Michigan St., giving Tom Izzo a lot of potential options. Sophomore Durrell Summers is the team's most effective long-range shooter, while freshman Delvon Roe is a good inside scorer and rebounder who has had trouble finding a consistent offensive level and struggles at the free throw line. These two combined for 14 rebounds against the Huskies. 6-2 Travis Walton is a good ball distributor who leads the team in steals, while taking almost all of his shots from inside the arc. Sophomore Chris Allen puts up a lot of shots, but misses a ton. Korie Lucious scored 11 points in just 8 minutes against UConn, and Draymond Green has also chipped in effectively.

In Sum: I'll admit that before taking a hard look at the numbers and the individual matchups, I'd written off the Spartans, but after analyzing the game, there's definitely reason for Michigan St. fans to be optimistic. They will cause Carolina serious trouble on the glass and have defended the inside well against quality opponents. Still, I think the Tar Heels have too much offensive talent, and that their pace of play will be able to unsettle the Spartans in a way that UConn couldn't. North Carolina has also shown a fair share of defensive ability recently, and will be able to stop Michigan St. often enough to cut down the nets.

Winner: North Carolina Margin: 5-9

UCONN vs Michigan St: Final Four Matchup Comparison

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 12:32:34 -0400

Start: Apr 4 2009 - 6:07pm

Most people thought Louisville was going to roll over Michigan St like they did against Arizona. But the well-coached Spartans controlled the tempo perfectly, and exposed Louisville for being a mediocre team in the half-court. Will that possession by possession mentality work against UCONN, or will that play right into the Huskies hands?

Click on team and player name for full stats, game logs, bio info, and more.

Matchup Comparison
	#1 UCONN		#2 Michigan St

	AJ Price UCONN is tough to beat when Price is playing at his best. Look out if he happens to be on from three..	PG	Kalin Lucas The engine behind MSU's success. Must contain Price if MSU has any shot. Gus Johnson knows Lucas is the "Big Ten Player of the Year!!"
	Craig Austrie Basically a role player now, who isn't asked to do much on O considering the other options.	SG	Travis Walton On the floor to pass the ball and defend. Doesn't light up scoreboard, but L'Ville game was great example of how he still makes important contributions.
	Stanley Robinson Unlike Morgan, Robinson has been playing the best ball of his life in recent weeks.	G/F	Raymar Morgan Never really got into flow with injury issues, and has been virtually invisible. Has scored just 7 points in his last 3 games..
	Jeff Adrien Rock solid player rebounds and mixes it up on the inside. Not as imposing as Thabeet on D, but can still block shots.	F	Delvon Roe Promising freshman has only impacted 1 of MSU's 4 tourney games. Needs to step up.
	Hasheem Thabeet Offensively challenged, but still a hugely imposing presence on D and on the glass.	C	Goran Suton Averaging almost 20 & 10 over last two games. But has done most of his damage in the first half. Needs to hit outside shots to make Thabeet step away from the rim.
Reserves
	Donnell Beverly Only gets in for 2-3 minutes a game now.	PGs	Korie Lucious Lucas & Walton are both PG's, so Lucious rarely gets much time. But he's far from a scrub.
	Kemba Walker Made name name for himself with 23 against Mizzou, but prone to inconsistency.	Wings	Chris Allen/Durrell Summers Michigan St excels when these guys run the floor and hit threes. Summers was big against L'Ville.
	Gavin Edwards Serviceable so long as he doesn't drift outside the paint.	Bigs	Gray/Green/Ibok Since February started, Draymond Green has emerged as the feature reserve forward. He's really coming into his own.

Disagree with my matchup winners (or rare ties in two cases here)? Post your thoughts in the comments section. Who do you think will win? Vote below:

UNC vs Villanova: Final Four Matchup Comparison

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 11:07:46 -0400

Start: Apr 4 2009 - 8:47pm

If there's a "cinderella" in this tournament, Villanova would be it. The Wildcats hung around the Top 25 all season, but never challenged for the Big East title and mostly went under the radar. With solid guard play, an impressive defensive focus, and a capable big man in Dante Cunningham, the Wildcats have enough pieces to at least give the Tar Heels a better game than Oklahoma did (which isn't saying much).

Click on team and player name for full stats, game logs, bio info, and more.

Matchup Comparison
	#1 UNC		#3 Villanova

	Ty Lawson Seems to be 100% healthy now, has 20 assists to just 2 TOs in the tournament. Even hitting threes at a high clip.	PG	Scottie Reynolds Made a name for himself with game-winning drive against Pitt. Solid, no doubt, but not Lawson.
	Wayne Ellington Up until the Oklahoma game, Ellington had been on the best run of his career. Can Reading the D stopper contain him?	SG	Reggie Reading Solid defender and glue guy, can pass the ball as well.
	Danny Green Underrated player, defends well and can knock in threes. Still prone to a dud offensive game every once and awhile.	G/F	Dwayne Anderson Overlooked player. Rebounds well and can heat up from three. Stepped up against Pitt, and could be key to a VU win.
	Tyler Hansbrough Had one of his least effective games of the season against OU. How will he respond?	F	Shane Clark Solid player who has never lived up to potential. Will lose time to Pena (unless he goes 3-4 from deep again..)
	Deon Thompson Leveled off as season went on, and is prone to disappearing. Losing time to Davis recently.	C	Dante Cunningham Rock solid forward capable of 20 and 10. Can step out and hit 15-foot jumper.
Reserves
	Bobby Frasor/Larry Drew Frasor somehow gotten worse throughout career. Drew is a solid passer who rarely scores.	PGs	Corey Fisher Offensive spark who basically gets starter minutes. Jumper has been off in tourney which is troubling.
	NA	Wings	Corey Stokes Will average 15 ppg next year. Every few games, tends to light it up from the outside.
	Ed Davis/Tyler Zeller Both of these guys are A-level future stars. Davis is the Heels main option off the bench now.	Bigs	Antonio Pena Minutes have shrunk, but a capable reserve. Not as good as Davis though.

Disagree with my matchup winners? Post your thoughts in the comments section. Who do you think will win? Vote below:

GameNight: UNC vs Oklahoma

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 13:15:38 -0400

Start: Mar 29 2009 - 5:05pm

Oklahoma had little problems with Syracuse, but a lot of that had to do with the surprising effort of Tony Crocker. Crocker had 28 points, including 6-11 of shooting from three.. in the previous 5 games, he had only 21 points combined. Against a batter Tar Heels squad, Oklahoma will need a similar hot-shooter to emerge from the perimeter.

Matchup Comparison
	#1 North Carolina		#2 Oklahoma
	Ty Lawson Seems to be 100% healthy now, has 15 assists to just 1 TO in the tournament.	PG	Austin Johnson After sluggish start to season, has been playing better.
	Wayne Ellington Finally playing like a star. How he fares against Warren could be the difference.	SG	Willie Warren 2nd leading scorer hits threes or layups, not much in between. Can't afford another weak effort like against the Cuse.
	Danny Green Underrated player defends and can knock in threes.	G/F	Tony Crocker Broke out of a month-long slump against Syracuse (28 pts), can he do it again?
	Tyler Hansbrough Most effective when he's getting into the lane and getting to the line.	F	Blake Griffin Best player in the country. Puts up 30 like its no big deal.
	Deon Thompson Leveled off as season went on, and is prone to disappearing. Losing time to Davis recently.	F/C	Taylor Griffin Solid role player can board and mix it up on defense. Much more consistent than Thompson.
Reserves
	Bobby Frasor/Larry Drew Frasor somehow gotten worse throughout career. Drew is a solid passer who rarely scores.	PGs	Omar Leary Puts in 10-15 minutes each night.
	NA	Wings	Davis/Pattillo Decent contributors have been seeing less minutes in Big Dance, but netter than NA..
	Ed Davis/Tyler Zeller Both of these guys are A-level future stars. Davis will be asked at times to help on Griffin.	Bigs	Allen/Wright Don't expect to see them in crunch time.

Who do you think will win? Vote below:

GameNight: Louisville vs Michigan St

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 12:33:23 -0400

Start: Mar 29 2009 - 2:20pm

Louisville dominated Arizona like the Wildcats were a D2 team. But Michigan St is a much more sound team, that will try and control the pace and defend with purpose. In Louisville's 5 losses, the game was played at a slow place and the Cards never topped 64 points (51, 54, 55, 57, and 64). That's pretty much the recipe for Michigan St, control the pace, make Louisville beat you in the half-court, and hope for the best.

Matchup Comparison
	#1 Louisville		#2 Michigan St
	Andre McGee Senior has had weak season, and is glorified role player at this point.	PG	Kalin Lucas Gus Johnson knows Lucas is the "Big Ten Player of the Year!!" The engine behind MSU's sucess.
	Jerry Smith Capable of heating up every few weeks. Had a big game against Arizona, but MSU plays much better D.	SG	Travis Walton On the floor to pass the ball and defend.
	Terrence Williams One of the most versatile players in the country. Capable of a triple-double on a good night.	G/F	Raymar Morgan Never really got into flow with injury issues, and has been virtually invisible. Perhaps his day to break out?
	Earl Clark Physical specimen runs the floor, rebounds, and D's. Has been much more consistent.	F	Delvon Roe Freshman never really showed up against Kansas, and should top out at 20 minutes.
	Samardo Samuels Plays well against teams with smaller bigs, but Hill might be too touch.	C	Goran Suton MVP of Kansas game kept MSU alive in first half when rest of team struggled. Can even hit outside shots here and there.
Reserves
	Edgar Sosa Not great, but coming off very solid performance against UofA.	PGs	Korie Lucious Lucas & Walton are both PG's, so Lucious rarely gets much time. But he's far from a scrub.
	Preston Knowles Can come off the bench and hit threes here and there.	Wings	Chris Allen/Durrell Summers Michigan St excels when these guys run the floor and hit threes.
	Terrence Jennings Capable big would put up solid numbers with more minutes.	Bigs	Gray/Green/Ibok FR Draymond Green has emerged in the 2nd half of the season as a solid 15-20 mpg guy.

(The wrong chart was posted at first this morning. Has since been corrected. Who do you think will win? Vote below:

GameNight: North Carolina vs Gonzaga

Shawn Siegel — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 15:05:17 -0400

Start: Mar 27 2009 - 9:57pm

With a healthy Lawson, its hard to imagine UNC losing to anyone.. let alone Gonzaga. But you never know. Perhaps this is the year Gonzaga once again becomes America's team..

Matchup Comparison
	#1 North Carolina		#4 Gonzaga
	Ty Lawson Perhaps has the most famous toe in America. Can carry UNC on his back.	PG	Jeremy Pargo Coming off his best game in over a month. Needs to play with confidence again.
	Wayne Ellington In the midst of the hottest 2 week run of his career. Can he keep it up?	SG	Matt Bouldin Has really stepped up his game in 2009. Has finally become an assertive leader.
	Danny Green Underrated player defends and can knock in threes.	G/F	Micah Downs Must hit the occasional three, rebound, and help on defense.
	Tyler Hansbrough Most effective when he's getting into the lane and getting to the line.	F	Austin Daye Still hasn't taken the next step, perhaps he never will.
	Deon Thompson Leveled off as season went on, and is prone to disappearing at times..	F/C	Josh Heytvelt Can't afford to have another weak game like he did against WKU.
Reserves
	Bobby Frasor/Larry Drew Frasor somehow gotten worse throughout career. Drew is a solid passer who rarely scores.	PGs	Demetri Goodson Decent 5-11 FR holds his own in the 10-15 mins he gets.
	NA	Wings	Steven Gray Basically gets starter minutes. Is a better player than I think even he realizes.
	Ed Davis/Tyler Zeller Both of these guys are A-level future stars.	Bigs	Ira Brown Senior vet doesn't get much time in big games..

GameNight: Oklahoma vs Syracuse

Shawn Siegel — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 14:36:33 -0400

Start: Mar 27 2009 - 7:27pm

According to the bettors, who see this as a virtual lock, tonight's 7:30 game between Oklahoma and Syracuse could be an instant classic. Neither team is very deep, and this could turn into a war of attrition. Who has the edge? You be the judge.

Matchup Comparison
	#2 Oklahoma		#3 Syracuse
	Austin Johnson After sluggish start to season, has been playing better.	PG	Jonny Flynn Cuse leader rarely takes more than a few seconds off.
	Willie Warren 2nd leading scorer hits threes or layups, not much in between.	SG	Eric Devendorf Has re-emerged as a consistent 20 ppg scorer in recent months.
	Tony Crocker Has lost outside shooting touch in recent months. Needs to step up.	G/F	Paul Harris Undersized wing can defend and rebound, but has been struggling to score.
	Blake Griffin Best player in the country.	F	Rick Jackson Won't dominate, but underrated contributor.
	Taylor Griffin Solid role player can board and mix it up on defense.	F/C	Arinze Onuaku Laughably bad at FT shooting. Must step up on the glass against Griffins.
Reserves
	Omar Leary Puts in 10-15 minutes each night.	PGs	NA
	Davis/Pattillo Decent contributors have been seeing less minutes in Big Dance.	Wings	Andy Rautins Basically another starter, Rautins can light it up from long-range.
	Allen/Wright Don't expect to see them in crunch time.	Bigs	Joseph/Ongenaet Both better than any of OU's reserve forwards..

GameNight: Louisville vs Arizona (Matchup Comparison)

Shawn Siegel — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 14:11:36 -0400

Start: Mar 27 2009 - 7:07pm

Up until this point, March couldn't have been any less mad. The lone exception is 12th seeded Arizona, who knocked off a pair of underwhelming opponents in Utah and Cleveland St. Now, they must face the Tournament's #1 seed, and everyone expects the favored Cardinals to prevail.

Matchup Comparison
	#1 Louisville		#12 Arizona
	Andre McGee Senior has had weak season.	PG	Nic Wise Averaging 25 ppg in tourney, but prone to TO's.
	Jerry Smith Capable of heating up every few weeks.	SG	Kyle Fogg Pretty amazing UofA wins considering their starting SG has 8 fg's in his last 7 games.
	Terrence Williams One of the most versatile players in the country.	SF	Chase Budinger Underrated contributor who can be annoying on D and handle the rock.
	Earl Clark Physical specimen runs the floor, rebounds, and	F	Jamelle Horne Horne is the 4th rung on a 3-man team. Not in Clark's league.
	Samardo Samuels Plays well against teams with smaller bigs, but Hill might be too touch.	F/C	Jordan Hill Emerging star is a 20-10 machine.
Reserves
	Edgar Sosa Not great, but twice as good as Lavender.	PGs	Brendon Lavender Usually gets a few minutes of meaningless time
	Preston Knowles Can come off the bench and hit threes here and there.	Wings	Zane Johnson Usually good for 10-15 minutes, Johnson rarelt scores more than a bucket or two.
	Terrence Jennings Capable big would put up solid numbers with more minutes.	Bigs	Fendi Onobun Rarely plays.

GameNight: Memphis vs Missouri (Matchup Comparison)

Shawn Siegel — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 17:41:41 -0400

Start: Mar 26 2009 - 9:37pm

One of the day's 2 best games along with Duke/Villanova.. most of the country will unfortunately only get to see limited segments. Memphis is known as one of the country's best defensive teams, while Missouri is known for pushing the tempo and putting 80+ on the board. You figure Memphis is more than capable of running up and down though considering the personnel they have.

Hopefully you stay up late and watch this Sweet Sixteen battle. Should be fun.

	#2 Memphis		#3 Missouri
	Tyreke Evans Must avoid turnovers against feisty Zoo D.	PG	Zaire Taylor Inconsistent scorer needs to step up.
	Doneal Mack Disappears every other game. Never know.	SG	Matt Lawrence Better shooter & scorer than 9 ppg suggests.
	Antonio Anderson Quality defender can mix it up down low. No perimeter game.	F/G	J.T. Tiller Underrated contributor who can be annoying on D and handle the rock.
	Robert Dozier Underrated player does everything Cal asks. Not incapable of outplaying Carroll.	F	DeMarre Carroll Solid all-around player, even getting better at hitting outside shots.
	Shawn Taggart Called upon to provide inside toughness.	F	Leo Lyons Statistically one of the most efficient forwards in the country.
Reserves
	Willie Kemp Becoming less and less of a factor.	PGs	Miguel Paul Gets 5 mpg to advance ball up the court.
	Sallie/Witherspoon Can Sallie continue to light it up?	Wings	Denmon/English English has been the equivalent sparkplug of Sallie.
	Pierre Henderson-Niles Takes up space, and amusing to watch..	Bigs	Ramsey/Stafford Decent players lost behind stars Carroll and Lyons.

GameNight: Duke vs Villanova (Matchup Comparison)

Shawn Siegel — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 17:18:01 -0400

Start: Mar 26 2009 - 10:07pm

CBS saves what is perhaps the night's best and most evenly matched game for last (10:05 start). Both teams have similar guard heavy rosters and lineups, can push the tempo if needed, and start without a true center on the floor. As you'll see, both teams have thin benches, though Villanova has a clear edge off the pine. As I see it, Scheyer and Henderson are the key performers for Duke, the pair will need to combine for 40+ as Singler & Cunningham play to a stand-still.

Hopefully you stay up late and enjoy the action, especially with Bill Raftery providing his usual funny color.

	#2 Duke		#3 Villanova
	Elliot Williams A revelation at first. Inconsistent since.	PG	Scottie Reynolds In a mini-slump, but capable of taking over.
	Jon Scheyer Underrated player. Can even play point.	SG	Reggie Reading Solid defender and glue guy.
	Gerald Henderson Rising star needs to bring A game.	F/G	Dwayne Anderson Underlooked player. Rebounds well and can heat up from three.
	Lance Thomas Just asked to rebound and defend.	F	Shane Clark Solid player who has never lived up to potential. Will lose time to Pena.
	Kyle Singler Highly versatile. Hits 40% from downtown.	F	Dante Cunningham Rock solid forward capable of 20 and 10.
Reserves
	Smith/Paulus Nothing wrong at all with these backups. Still not as good as Fisher though.	PGs	Corey Fisher Basically gets starter minutes. Offensive spark.
	David McClure Can D-up and rebound. Useless on O.	Wings	Corey Stokes Will average 15 ppg next year.
	Brian Zoubek Makes an impact once every 2 weeks.	Bigs	Antonio Pena Minutes have shrunk, but a capable reserve.