Duke

Bracketology: Saturday Night NCAA Tournament Projection

Shawn Siegel — Sat, 16 Mar 2013 20:08:23 -0700

The latest Bracketology projection as of 11:00 PM, March 16th. One more day until Selection Sunday.

Why Pay Attention to What I Have to Say: Collegehoops.net's projections have consistently proven to be the best in the business. Over the last 5 years, Shawn Siegel is one of the Top 5 Bracketologists according to the Bracket Project. This ranking includes the likes of Joe Lunardi, Gary Parrish, Jerry Palm, and Andy Glockner.. none of whom come close.

As always, the field below is a prediction of what the committee would do as things stand today, not what they should do. This is done by taking into account standings, polls, computer rankings, and the committee's historical biases. Check out the follow up Bubble Watch for updates about teams on the NCAA Tournament Bubble, and NITology for a ranking of the best of the rest.

Notes:

Arrows indicate how many seeds a team has moved up or down since the previous update. Conference Champ.

ONE

Gonzaga 7

Louisville 3

Duke 1

Kansas 5

TWO

Indiana 10

New Mexico 2

Georgetown 9

Miami 4

THREE

Ohio St 11

Michigan St 8

Florida 6

Marquette 13

FOUR

Michigan 18

Syracuse 12

Kansas St 16

Oklahoma St 27

FIVE

UCLA 23

Saint Louis 22

Arizona 15

Wisconsin 28

SIX

Memphis 14

Pittsburgh 42

Creighton 26

North Carolina 17

SEVEN

Butler 21

VCU 25

Notre Dame 36

Colorado St 19

EIGHT

UNLV 24

Missouri 35

North Carolina St 30

Illinois 40

NINE

Oregon 49

San Diego St 32

Saint Mary's 33

Iowa St 44

TEN

Temple 41

Oklahoma 40

Villanova 52

Cincinnati 48

ELEVEN

Wichita St 37

Minnesota 34

Belmont 20

Ole Miss 50

TWELVE

Boise St 43

Akron 46

Colorado 38 / Tennessee 59

La Salle 45 / UCONN 47 California 53

THIRTEEN + 2

Bucknell 51

South Dakota St 63

New Mexico St 57

Valparaiso 58

FOURTEEN

Davidson 61

Montana 83

Florida Gulf Coast 93

Harvard 94

FIFTEEN

Northwestern St 96

Iona 97

Pacific 105

Western Kentucky 150

SIXTEEN + 2

Albany 128

Long Island 175

James Madison 182 / Liberty 288

Southern 181 / North Carolina A&T 211

Last In: California, Tennessee, La Salle, Colorado

First Out: Maryland 66, Middle Tennessee 31, Kentucky 56, Southern Miss 29

CollegeHoops.net Top 50: Duke, Michigan Remain 1-2

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 20 Jan 2013 15:14:52 -0800

Collegehoops.net's Top 50 Power Ranking is your weekly dive into the national college basketball scene. The CHN Top 50 is brought to you before all the other polls late Sunday night. Arrows represent notable moves. (Also: Check out the weekly Non-BCS Top 25 Ranking.)

Top 50 Ranking: January 20th

by Shawn Siegel: Collegehoops.net Editor

	Team	Record	Last
1	Duke	16-1	1
2	Michigan	17-1	2
3	Kansas	16-1	5
4	Syracuse	17-1	7
5	Florida	14-2	6
6	Arizona	16-1	8
7	Indiana	16-2*	3
8	Louisville	16-2*	4
9	Minnesota	15-3*	9
10	Gonzaga	17-2*	10
11	Ohio State	13-4*	11
12	Butler	16-2	14
13	Creighton	17-2*	12
14	Michigan State	16-3	15
15	New Mexico	16-2	18
16	Kansas St	15-2	21
17	NC State	14-3*	17
18	Wichita St	17-2	23
19	VCU	16-3	24
20	Missouri	13-4*	13
21	Oregon	15-2	27
22	San Diego St	14-4**	16
23	Notre Dame	15-3*	19
24	Cincinnati	16-3	30
25	UNLV	15-4*	22
26	Oklahoma St	12-4	32
27	Baylor	12-5*	26
28	Wisconsin	13-5*	33
29	Ole Miss	15-2	36
30	Illinois	14-5*	20
31	Memphis	14-3	34
32	Miami	13-3	39
33	UCLA	15-4*	25
34	Marquette	13-4*	29
35	Wyoming	15-2*	31
36	Kentucky	12-5	40
37	Colorado St	15-3	42
38	UCONN	12-5**	28
39	Belmont	15-4	45
40	Bucknell	16-3	41
41	Pittsburgh	15-4	44
42	Temple	12-5*	38
43	North Carolina	12-5	49
44	St. Mary's	15-4	50
45	Georgetown	12-4*	37
46	Iowa	13-5	NA(52)
47	Boise St	13-4**	35
48	Maryland	14-4*	43
49	BYU	15-5*	46
50	Iowa St	13-4	NA(54)

* = losses this week

last = last week's ranking

Next Five: MTSU (16-4), Oklahoma (12-4), Colorado (12-6*), Southern Miss (15-4), North Dakota St (16-4*)

Top 50 Drop Outs (that haven't returned)

			Week
	Colorado		10
	Saint Louis		10
	Murray St		9
	Virginia Tech		7
	Xavier		6
	Alabama		6
	Virginia		6
	St. Joseph's		5
	Ohio		5
	California		4
	Santa Clara		3
	Tennessee		3
	Northwestern		3
	Florida State		3
	Texas		2
	Northern Iowa		2
	South Alabama		2

week = week dropped out of Top 50

During the season, don't forget to check out the CHN Top 50 Power Ranking every Sunday night!

For more depth, check out the weekly the Non-BCS Top 25 ranking.

You can also revisit the Top 50 archive and view this week's AP Top 25.

College Basketball Top 50: Duke New #1 While Butler Soars

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 16 Dec 2012 18:20:32 -0800

Top 50 Ranking: December 16th

by Shawn Siegel: Collegehoops.net Editor

	Team	Record	Last
1	Duke	9-0	3
2	Michigan	11-0	2
3	Indiana	9-1*	1
4	Syracuse	9-0	5
5	Florida	7-1	4
6	Louisville	9-1	6
7	Ohio State	8-1	7
8	Arizona	8-0	8
9	Kansas	8-1	9
10	Missouri	8-1	10
11	Cincinnati	10-0	11
12	Illinois	12-0	12
13	New Mexico	11-0	13
14	Minnesota	11-1	14
15	Gonzaga	10-1	15
16	Creighton	10-1	16
17	Michigan State	9-2	17
18	San Diego St	8-1	18
19	Butler	8-2	42
20	North Carolina	8-2	19
21	UNLV	8-1	20
22	Oklahoma St	8-1	21
23	Notre Dame	9-1	23
24	Pittsburgh	10-1	24
25	Georgetown	9-1	25
26	NC State	7-2	26
27	Kentucky	7-3	27
28	Baylor	6-3	28
29	Wichita St	9-1*	22
30	Murray St	8-1	29
31	Oregon	9-1	31
32	Colorado	8-2	33
33	UCONN	7-2	34
34	Kansas St	7-2*	30
35	Wyoming	10-0	35
36	Bucknell	9-1	36
37	Temple	7-1	37
38	Maryland	9-1	39
39	VCU	7-3	41
40	Memphis	6-3*	32
41	Xavier	7-2	43
42	Marquette	7-2	44
43	Miami	6-1	45
44	Wisconsin	7-4	49
45	Ole Miss	7-1	NA(+5)
46	Colorado St	6-2	50
47	St. Mary's	7-2	NA(+5)
48	Alabama	6-3*	38
49	Virginia	8-2	NA
50	Belmont	7-3*	47

* = losses this week

last = last week's ranking

Next Five: Boise St (7-2), Iowa (9-2), Virginia Tech (8-2*), UIC (9-1), Texas A&M (7-2)

Top 50 Drop Outs

			Week
	Virginia Tech		5
	St. Joseph's		5
	Ohio		5
	California		4
	Boise St		4
	Santa Clara		3
	Tennessee		3
	Northwestern		3
	UCLA		3
	Florida State		3
	Saint Louis		3
	St. Mary's		2
	Texas		2
	Northern Iowa		2
	Iowa St		2
	South Alabama		2

week = week dropped out of Top 50

During the season, don't forget to check out the CHN Top 50 Power Ranking every Sunday night!

For more depth, check out the weekly the Non-BCS Top 25 ranking.

You can also revisit the Top 50 archive and view this week's AP Top 25.

2012-13 Top 50 Ranking: November 19

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 18 Nov 2012 21:09:30 -0800

Top 50 Ranking: November 19th

by Shawn Siegel: Collegehoops.net Editor

	Team	Record	Last
1	Indiana	3-0	x
2	Michigan	3-0	x
3	Louisville	3-0	x
4	Duke	3-0	x
5	Syracuse	2-0	x
6	Ohio State	3-0	x
7	Florida	3-0	x
8	Kentucky	2-1*	x
9	North Carolina	3-0	x
10	UCLA	3-0	x
11	Creighton	3-0	x
12	Gonzaga	3-0	x
13	Arizona	2-0	x
14	Memphis	2-0	x
15	UNLV	2-0	x
16	Missouri	3-0	x
17	Michigan State	2-1	x
18	Kansas	2-1*	x
19	Colorado	4-0	x
20	Oklahoma St	4-0	x
21	UCONN	3-0	x
22	Cincinnati	3-0	x
23	Baylor	4-1*	x
24	San Diego St	2-1	x
25	NC State	3-1*	x
26	Wisconsin	2-1*	x
27	Minnesota	4-0	x
28	Notre Dame	3-1*	x
29	Kansas St	4-0	x
30	St. Mary's	3-0	x
31	Pittsburgh	4-0	x
32	Texas	2-0	x
33	New Mexico	3-0	x
34	Ohio	3-0	x
35	Alabama	4-0	x
36	Murray St	3-1*	x
37	Marquette	2-0	x
38	St. Joseph's	2-1*	x
39	Florida State	3-1	x
40	Northern Iowa	3-0	x
41	South Alabama	2-0	x
42	Tennessee	3-1*	x
43	Colorado St	2-0	x
44	Wichita St	4-0	x
45	Santa Clara	2-0	x
46	Saint Louis	1-1*	x
47	Iowa St	3-0	x
48	Temple	2-0	x
49	Belmont	3-0	x
50	VCU	2-1*	x

* = losses this week

last = last week's ranking

Next Five: Bucknell (5-0), Butler (1-1*), Oregon (3-0), Xavier (3-0), Illinois (3-0)

Top 50 Drop Outs

			Week
	Week One!

week = week dropped out of Top 50

During the season, don't forget to check out the CHN Top 50 Power Ranking every Sunday night!

For more depth, check out the weekly the Non-BCS Top 25 ranking.

You can also revisit the Top 50 archive and view this week's AP Top 25.

Jon Teitel's McDonald's All-American Lineup Projections

Jon Teitel — Tue, 05 Jun 2012 12:04:43 -0700

Projected lineups for all 31 teams with McDonald's High School All-Americans on their rosters,
Plus 2 teams whose All-American will no longer be with his prior team
(All-American year in parentheses)
Incoming 2012 All-Americans in Bold
Underclassmen who have declared for draft in italics
TRANSFERS IN UPPERCASE

UCLA (7)
G: Larry Drew II (2008)
G: Tyler Lamb
F: Shabazz Muhammad (2012)
F: Travis Wear (2009)
F: David Wear (2009)
BENCH: Kyle Anderson (2012), Tony Parker (2012), Joshua Smith (2010)
KEY LOSSES: Lazeric Jones

DUKE (6)
G: Quinn Cook (2011)
G: Seth Curry
F: Rasheed Sulaimon (2012)
F: Mason Plumlee (2009)
F: Ryan Kelly (2009)
BENCH: Marshall Plumlee (2011), Amile Jefferson (2012)
KEY LOSSES: Austin Rivers (2011)

NORTH CAROLINA (5)
G: Dexter Strickland (2009)
G: Reggie Bullock (2010)
G: PJ Hairston (2011)
F: James Michael McAdoo (2011)
F: Desmond Hubert
BENCH: Marcus Paige (2012)
KEY LOSSES: Tyler Zeller (2008), Kendall Marshall (2010), Harrison Barnes (2010), John Henson (2009)

NC STATE (4)
G: Rodney Purvis (2012)
G: Lorenzo Brown
F: CJ Leslie (2010)
F: Scott Wood
F: Richard Howell
BENCH: Tyler Lewis (2012), TJ Warren (2012), RALSTON TURNER
KEY LOSSES: CJ Williams

KENTUCKY (3)
G: Archie Goodwin (2012)
G: Ryan Harrow
F: Alex Poythress (2012)
F: Kyle Wiltjer (2011)
C: Nerlens Noel
KEY LOSSES: Doron Lamb (2010), Terrence Jones (2010), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (2011), Anthony Davis (2011), Marquis Teague (2011), Darius Miller

FLORIDA (3)
G: Kenny Boynton (2009)
G: Mike Rosario (2008)
F: Patric Young (2010)
F: Erik Murphy
F: Will Yeguete
KEY LOSSES: Bradley Beal (2011), Erving Walker

OHIO STATE (3)
G: Shannon Scott (2011)
G: Aaron Craft
G: Lenzelle Smith, Jr.
F: Deshaun Thomas (2010)
C: Amir Williams (2011)
KEY LOSSES: William Buford (2008), Jared Sullinger (2010)

SYRACUSE (3)
G: Michael Carter-Williams (2011)
G: Brandon Triche
F: DaJuan Coleman (2012)
F: Rakeem Christmas (2011)
F: CJ Fair
KEY LOSSES: Kris Joseph, Scoop Jardine, Fab Melo (2010), Dion Waiters

MICHIGAN STATE (3)
G: Gary Harris (2012)
G: Branden Dawson (2011)
G: Keith Appling (2010)
C: Derrick Nix
C: Adreian Payne
KEY LOSSES: Draymond Green, Brandon Wood

MEMPHIS (3)
G: Joe Jackson (2010)
G: Chris Crawford
F: Shaq Goodwin (2012)
F: Adonis Thomas (2011)
F: Tarik Black
KEY LOSSES: Will Barton

LOUISVILLE (3)
G: Wayne Blackshear (2011)
G: Peyton Siva (2009)
G: Russ Smith
F: Chane Behanan (2011)
C: Gorgui Dieng
KEY LOSSES: Kyle Kuric, Chris Smith

ARIZONA (2)
G: Nick Johnson
G: Kevin Parrom
F: Brandon Ashley (2012)
F: Grant Jerrett (2012)
F: Solomon Hill
KEY LOSSES: Kyle Fogg, Jesse Perry

INDIANA (2)
G: Yogi Ferrell (2012)
G: Jordan Hulls
G: Victor Oladipo
F: Cody Zeller (2011)
F: Christian Watford
KEY LOSSES: None

TEXAS (2)
G: Myck Kabongo (2011)
G: Julien Lewis
G: Sheldon McClellan
F: Jonathan Holmes
C: Cameron Ridley (2012)
KEY LOSSES: J'Covan Brown

OKLAHOMA STATE (2)
G: Marcus Smart (2012)
G: Markel Brown
G: Brian Williams
F: Le'Bryan Nash (2011)
F: Michael Cobbins
KEY LOSSES: Keiton Page

UNLV (2)
G: Anthony Marshall
G: Justin Hawkins
F: Anthony Bennett (2012)
F: Mike Moser
F: Carlos Lopez
BENCH: KHEM BIRCH (2011)
KEY LOSSES: Chace Stanback

PITTSBURGH (1)
G: Travon Woodall
G: Lamar Patterson
F: Dante Taylor (2009)
F: Talib Zanna
F: JJ Moore
KEY LOSSES: Ashton Gibbs, Nasir Robinson

VILLANOVA (1)
G: James Bell
G: Darrun Hilliard
F: JayVaughn Pinkston (2010)
F: Maurice Sutton
C: Mouphtaou Yarou
KEY LOSSES: Maalik Wayns (2009), Dominic Cheek (2009)

BAYLOR (1)
G: Pierre Jackson
G: Brady Heslip
G: AJ Walton
F: Cory Jefferson
F: Isaiah Austin (2012)
KEY LOSSES: Quincy Acy, Perry Jones III (2010), Quincy Miller

WASHINGTON (1)
G: Abdul Gaddy (2009)
G: CJ Wilcox
F: Desmond Simmons
F: Shawn Kemp, Jr.
C: Aziz N'Diaye
KEY LOSSES: Terrence Ross, Tony Wroten

FLORIDA STATE (1)
G: Michael Snaer (2009)
G: Ian Miller
G: Terry Whisnant II
F: Terrance Shannon
F: Okaro White
KEY LOSSES: Bernard James

CLEMSON (1)
G: Rod Hall
G: TJ Sapp
F: Milton Jennings (2009)
F: Devin Booker
F: KJ McDaniels
KEY LOSSES: Andre Young, Tanner Smith

DETROIT (1)
G: Ray McCallum (2010)
G: Jason Calliste
G: Donovan Foster
F: Doug Anderson
F: Evan Bruinsma
KEY LOSSES: Eli Holman, Chase Simon, Nick Minnerath

LSU (1)
G: Andre Stringer
G: Anthony Hickey
F: Johnny O'Bryant III (2011)
F: Eddie Ludwig
F: Jalen Courtney
KEY LOSSES: Justin Hamilton, RALSTON TURNER

KANSAS (1)
G: Travis Releford
G: Elijah Johnson
F: Perry Ellis (2012)
F: Kevin Young
C: Jeff Withey
KEY LOSSES: Tyshawn Taylor, Thomas Robinson

PROVIDENCE (1)
G: Kris Dunn (2012)
G: Vincent Council
G: Bryce Cotton
F: LaDontae Henton
F: Kadeem Batts
KEY LOSSES: GERARD COLEMAN

GEORGIA (1)
G: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (2011)
G: Vincent Williams
F: Donte Williams
F: Marcus Thornton
F: Nemanja Djurisic
KEY LOSSES: Gerald Robinson

MISSISSIPPI (1)
G: Jelan Kendrick (2010)
G: Nick Williams
G: Jarvis Summers
F: Murphy Holloway
F: Reginald Buckner
KEY LOSSES: Terrance Henry

RUTGERS (1)
G: Eli Carter
G: Myles Mack
G: Jerome Seagears
F: Wally Judge (2009)
F: Dane Miller
KEY LOSSES: None

MISSOURI (1)
G: Michael Dixon
G: Phil Pressey
G: KEION BELL
F: ALEX ORIAKHI (2009)
F: Laurence Bowers
KEY LOSSES: Marcus Denmon, Ricardo Ratliffe, Kim English

ALABAMA (1)
G: Trevor Releford
G: Trevor Lacey
G: Levi Randolph
F: Devonta Pollard (2012)
F: Nick Jacobs?
KEY LOSSES: JaMychal Green (2008)

MISSISSIPPI STATE (0)
G: Jalen Steele
G: Shaun Smith
G: Tyson Cunningham
F: Roquez Johnson
C: Wendell Lewis
KEY LOSSES: RODNEY HOOD, Dee Bost, Renardo Sidney (2009), Arnett Moultrie

CONNECTICUT (0)
G: Shabazz Napier
G: Ryan Boatright
F: Tyler Olander
F: DeAndre Daniels
F: Niels Giffey
KEY LOSSES: ALEX ORIAKHI (2009), Jeremy Lamb, Andre Drummond, ROSCOE SMITH

Early 2012-13 Ranking: A Look Ahead

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 19 Mar 2012 21:39:08 -0700

Although the Sweet Sixteen looms later this week, its still time to start looking ahead to the 2012-13 season. Sure, the usual assortment of stars like Anthony Davis, Thomas Robinson, and Jared Sullinger will be heading to the NBA, there's still a ton of talent returning next year. Especially in the non-BCS ranks, many of this year's top teams were led by juniors and sophomores.

I've had to make many assumptions about the NBA Draft in compiling the following list. Once players make their official decisions, this ranking will be updated later in the summer. Also uncertain is where some remaining unsigned recruits will end up. In particular, Shabazz Muhammad (#1 by Rivals.com), Anthony Bennett (#7), Devonta Pollard (#9), and Nerlens Noel (#3 in 2013) remain up for grabs. I purposely made no assumptions about where unsigned prospects will end up.

For now, here are next year's Top 60 teams, starting with the first 15. (16 to 30 can be found here.) All prospect rankings are using the Rivals 150 ranking.

Early Top 15

1 Duke Miles Plumlee is the only senior on the roster, and although Austin Rivers could certainly go pro, his season didn't warrant a top 10 selection. The addition of guard Rasheed Sulaimon, ranked 32nd by Rivals helps overcome a potential Rivers loss. This will be revisited if Rivers (and to a lesser extent Mason Plumlee) do in fact enter the Draft.

2 Indiana Assuming Zeller doesn't go pro, the top 5 scorers return from a Sweet Sixteen team. Add a loaded class that includes Rivals #16 Hanner Parea, #17 Kevin "Yogi" Ferrell, and #48 Jeremy Hollowell, and you got yourself a title contender.

3 Michigan Rivals #3 Mitch McGary joins a squad that was already Top-20 caliber this year. Glenn Robinson III, 34th ranked, is another solid prospect that can offset the loss of senior Steve Novak. If Trey Burke were to go pro, this ranking would certainly change.

4 Baylor Perry Jones is as good as gone, and Quincy Miller could be tempted to bolt as well. But the cupboard isn't bare with the likes of Jackson and Heslip returning. Scott Drew also adds future pro Isaiah Austin along with 2 other 4-star recruits.

5 North Carolina Zeller graduates after a fine career, and Harrison Barnes, John Henson, and Kendall Marshall are likely to bolt for the pros. But players like Bullock, Hairston, and McAdoo are ready to step out of the shadows. #40 prospect Marcus Paige and #49 Brice Johnson are solid additions, but UNC could use one more superstar recruit.

6 Wisconsin While senior Jordan Taylor had a disappointing season according to some, he was still the main cog in the Badgers wheel. However, the other key players from this Sweet Sixteen team return, and will be joined by Sam Dekker, Wisconsin's first 5-star recruit since Joe Krabbenhoft in 2005.

7 Louisville Although Kyle Kuric and Chris Smith graduate, expect more of the same from Louisville next year: a starless team that wins by defense. PG Terry Rozier is the only recruit locked up right now.

8 Syracuse While Kris Joseph and Scoop Jardine are major losses, Syracuse's 2012-13 hopes rest on offseason Draft decisions. Dion Waiters could go pro and Fab Melo is as good as gone. There's still talent remaining on the roster and the addition of #27 prospect DaJuan Coleman will help as well.

9 NC State Mark Gottfried inherited a talented roster, and did the best of it with a surprise Sweet Sixteen run. CJ Williams is a senior and CJ Leslie could decide to turn pro, but the rest of the roster returns intact. Even if Leslie leaves, NC State re-loads with 6th ranked prospect Rodney Purvis, #23 TJ Warren and #55 Tyler Lewis. Expectations will be higher than they've been in years.

10 Kentucky Kentucky's roster will most likely be decimated as Anthony Davis and Terrence Jones will undoubtedly leave, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is 70% gone (even if he says he's staying), and Doron Lamb and Marquis Teague are certainly First Round worthy. Plus Darius Miller and Eloy Vargas are seniors. Archie Goodwin, Alex Poythress, and Willie Cauley are all Top 40 prospects, but not as good as the guys they're replacing.

11 Creighton While Antoine Young is a major loss, the return of Doug McDermott gives Creighton one of the country's top handful of players. Along with 3 other returning starters, Creighton will be the class of the MVC.

12 Ohio St Jared Sullinger will presumably leave after his sophomore season, and William Buford is a senior. The x-factor is Deshaun Thomas. He played well enough down the stretch to warrant going pro, but he could certainly return as well. OSU does not have any reinforcement on the way as of now.

13 San Diego St The Aztecs were a surprise team this year, thanks to emerging stars Jamaal Franklin and Chase Tapley. Besides their return, the squad also welcomes a solid recruiting class, including 40th ranked Winston Shepard.

14 Kansas Tyshawn Taylor is the major senior loss, and Thomas Robinson will probably declare for the Draft. Its also conceivable that Jeff Withey declares for the pros as well. This would leave only 2 players that averaged over 5 ppg. Perry Ellis will be expected to come in and contribute from day one.

15 Michigan St Besides losing their leading everything in senior Draymond Green, Brandon Wood and Austin Thompson also graduate. Next year's freshmen class is similar in talent to this year's that produced Dawsen and Trice.

Teams 16 to 30: Kansas St, Memphis, Texas, and more.. Check back next week for teams 31 to 60.

Duke vs Lehigh: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Wed, 14 Mar 2012 06:16:19 -0700

(2) Duke vs. (15) Lehigh: South Region

Records

Duke 27-6, 13-3 ACC (At large)

Lehigh 29-7, 11-3 Patriot (Conference Tournament Champions)

Time: 7:15 p.m. Friday

TV: CBS

Location: Greensboro Arena in Greensboro, N.C.

Winner will face: (7) Notre Dame or (10) Xavier, Sunday

Rankings

Duke No. 8 AP; No. 8 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Duke 5

Lehigh 100

Line: Duke -12½ (O/U 148)

Players to Watch

Duke: G Austin Rivers, 6-4 Fr. (15.4 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 2.1 apg); G Seth Curry, 6-2 Jr. (13.4 ppg, 2.5 apg, 39.4% 3s); F Ryan Kelley, 6-11 Jr. (11.8 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 40.8% 3s). Rivers was the only Duke player named to either of the first two All-ACC teams after a freshman year that saw him lead the Blue Devils in scoring and leading them to a win over rival UNC with a 29-point performance that included a game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer.

Lehigh: G C.J. McCollum, 6-3 Jr. (21.9 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 3.5 apg); F Gabe Knutson, 6-9 Jr. (12.1 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 50.2% FG); G Mackey McKnight, 6-0 So. (8.3 ppg, 3.7 apg, 1.1 spg). McCollum is a 2-time Patriot League Player of the Year and probably the best undiscovered player in the country. The junior, who is fourth-leading scorer in Patriot League history, will the Hawks to the NCAA bid with 56 points, 13 rebounds, 11 assists and five steals in semifinal and final wins over American and Bucknell, respectively.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Duke: The Blue Devils have great balance and depth. Eight Devils average at least four points and seven play 20 minutes per game. Duke guards the perimeter well. It holds opponents to 31.7 percent from the 3-point line, which could be a key against McCollum and crew. Rivers is an excellent 1-on-1 player and he’s proven to be clutch, even as a freshman. Kelly and Mason and Miles Plumlee give Duke diversity and toughness. The Devils get to the foul line 21.6 times per game and score 23.1 percent of their points from the charity stripe.

Lehigh: Good things happen almost every time McCollum has the ball in his hands. He can shoot, get to the rim and create for his teammates. He’s also clutch, knocking down a 3-pointer at the buzzer to win at Bucknell in the regular season, then putting up a 29-point, 3-rebound, 5-assist, 3-steal, 2-block performance against the Bison in the Patriot championship game. He’s similar to Stephen Curry, who led Davidson to the Elite 8. He’s not quite the scorer Curry was, but he’s a better rebounder and a better playmaker. Knutson gives the Hawks a solid inside option. Lehigh turns the ball over just 11.7 times per contest. It also plays excellent defense.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Duke: Duke is young and average in a lot of areas of the game. The Devils shoot just 45.8 percent from the field. They have just a plus-2.9 rebounding margin. Their assist-to-turnover ratio is just 12.5-to-12.2 and their turnover margin is just plus-0.7.

Lehigh: The Hawks shoot just 44.9 percent from the field and 35.7 from deep, and they are an average rebounding team. Aside from Knutson, Lehigh doesn’t have a lot of size and shot selection is an issue at times. The Hawks assist on just 51.2 percent of their field goals.

The Bottom Line: In the end, Duke has too many matchup advantages for me to take Lehigh outright, but I certainly don’t count the Mountain Hawks out. McCollum is too good for anyone to take this win for granted.

The Pick: Duke 80, Lehigh 75

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 198-150-6 (Through Tuesday, March 14)

Kentucky's Run to Start in Louisville: South Region Thoughts

Raphielle Johnson — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 20:54:54 -0700

.pdf bracket

The Kentucky Wildcats, as has been expected for quite some time, is the top overall seed and they will begin their (hopeful) journey to New Orleans on the floor of bitter rival Louisville. That won't be a problem however as Big Blue Nation likely planned months in advance for their first two games being at the KFC Yum! Center.

First up for them is the winner of the First Four game between Mississippi Valley State and Western Kentucky, with both possibilities offering up subplots that will certainly be discussed.

Ray Harper's led the Hilltoppers from the depths of the Sun Belt to the Big Dance, and a win would match them up with the preeminent program in the state. MVSU is led by head coach Sean Woods, who is a Kentucky alum and hish shot gave UK a 102-101 lead on Duke with 2.1 seconds remaining in the 1992 East Regional final (more on this angle later). But after that, one couldn't blame John Calipari if he were to ask what the perks of being the top overall seed are besides geographical preference.

That 8/9 game looks like a very good battle as Iowa State takes on Connecticut. The Huskies are one of the nation's biggest underachievers, going from preseason Top 5 to a team that some asked whether or not they'd end up in the NIT.

Jim Calhoun's team doesn't lack for talent and it's a safe assumption that they'll be prepared as Calhoun has lost just one opening game (2008 vs. San Diego) during his tenure in Storrs. But in Royce White they'll take on a 6'9" point guard, and the Cyclones' many perimeter shooters could give the Huskies trouble.

The two-seed in the region is Duke, and if the bracket plays out according to seeds we could end up with Kentucky/Duke for a trip to the Final Four...20 years after they met in Philadelphia in one of the greatest games ever played.

The Blue Devils will need a healthy Ryan Kelly to be at their best offensively, and their perimeter defense needs to be better as well. They'll have to beat Lehigh (C.J. McCollum) followed by Notre Dame (Eric Atkins and Jerian Grant) or Xavier (Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons) in order to reach the Sweet 16.

As for the three-seed, that distinction belongs to Scott Drew's Baylor Bears and their presence adds to the South Region's edge in the "projected NBA lottery picks" department. Quincy Acy and Perry Jones III are the leaders up front and the Bears can go five deep there, and guard Pierre Jackson has been one of the nation's best newcomers.

The Bears get South Dakota State and Nate Wolters first, and the Jackrabbits are capable of pulling off the upset. And that 6/11 battle between UNLV and Colorado could end up providing more suspense than the casual fan would think given the struggles of the Pac-12.

Indiana makes their return to the Big Dance and while Tom Crean's club is more than capable of stringing together some wins the committee didn't give them the easiest matchup. New Mexico State features the talented Wendell McKines and they've got some size inside as well.

The biggest "wrong" in the region: the 5/12 matchup, as both Wichita State and VCU have the potential to do some special things this month. Instead, one of them is guaranteed to head home. Kentucky will be the clear favorite to get through the region, but despite the Louisville to Atlanta path they didn't receive a road that's smoothly paved.

Winner: Kentucky

Best second round matchup: Wichita State vs. VCU

All-Region Team
G Austin Rivers (Duke)
G Jeremy Lamb (Connecticut)
F Anthony Davis (Kentucky)
F Royce White (Iowa State)
F Quincy Acy (Baylor)

Tournament Poll: Who Is Going To Win the Title?

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 20:34:43 -0700

NCAA Tournament 2012: How To Pick the National Champion

Jon Teitel — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 00:19:48 -0800

CollegeHoops.net's Bracket Tactics will help you pick this year's national champion & finish at the top of your NCAA Bracket pool. These 8 tips are based on previous NCAA Tournament results. At the end, we will use the 8 tips to help narrow down your projected champion to a few odds-on favorites:

TIP #1: No team that lost its conference tournament opening game has never gone on to win the NCAA title the same year.

STRATEGY: The extra few days of rest have not proven helpful.

MEANING: Avoid Marquette, Kansas St, and Iowa St before penciling them is as your champ.

TIP #2: All but 4 champs since 1985 have averaged 77+ PPG.

STRATEGY: Stellar offense usually leads the way (last year being an exception.)

MEANING: Consider North Carolina, Missouri, Duke, and Creighton. Be wary of Michigan St, Louisville, Michigan, Georgetown, and Wisconsin.

TIP #3: All but 1 champ since 2006 won their conference tournament before winning the national title.

STRATEGY: There is something to be said for late season momentum.

MEANING: Avoid Syracuse, Kansas, Duke, UNLV, Indiana, Wisconsin to win it all.

TIP #4: Since 1979, the only national champion without a McDonald's All-American on the roster was Maryland in 2002.

STRATEGY: Talent rises to the top in national tournaments.

MEANING: Avoid Cincinnati, Murray St, San Diego St to win it all.

TIP #5: Since UNLV won the title in 1990, each of the past 21 champs has been from a power-conference: ACC (8), SEC (5), Big East (4), Pac-12 (2), Big 12 (1), Big 10 (1).

STRATEGY: You might want to think twice before picking a mid-major team to win it all

MEANING: Avoid Creighton, Memphis, Murray St, New Mexico, San Diego St, Temple, UNLV

TIP #6: The last champ with only 1 loss was Texas Western in 1966, and the last 2 teams entering the NCAA tournament with only 1 loss ended up losing in the title game (2005 IL & 2008 Memphis).

STRATEGY: The pressure of winning so many teams in a row can wear on teams.

MEANING: Kentucky might make the title game, but might not win it all.

TIP #7: Only 2 coaches with 0 to 4 prior tournament appearances have won the title since 1985. (Izzo & Fisher)

STRATEGY: Focus on teams with veteran coaches to win it all.

MEANING: Avoid Baylor (Scott Drew: 2 prior appearances), Marquette (Buzz Williams: 3rd appearance), Murray St (Steve Prohm: 1st appearance), and Virginia (Tony Bennett: 2 prior appearances)

TIP #8: Each champ since 2002 has had a Top 75 strength of schedule.

STRATEGY: Stay away from teams that played soft schedules. You have to play the best to know how to beat the best.

MEANING: Avoid Missouri (SOS 86), Creighton (SOS 102), Gonzaga (SOS 78), Saint Mary's (SOS 104) and Murray St (SOS 157)

IN SUMMARY

The team with the most strikes against it is Murray St. Other teams to seriously avoid winning it all include Creighton, Marquette, San Diego St, and Wisconsin. Despite high seeds, be wary of picking Syracuse, Kansas, Michigan St, and Baylor to go all the way. Duke and Missouri have pros and cons, while Kentucky has a better shot. North Carolina and Ohio St might be the best choices.