Illinois

College Basketball: 20 Random Thoughts & Observations

Shawn Siegel — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 01:08:29 -0500

20 Random Rants, Thoughts, and Observations from the Week in College Basketball by CollegeHoops.net Editor Shawn Siegel:

1 - This has unexpectedly become a weekly thing, so except 20 more random rants every Tuesday from now on.

2 - There's another Curry on the lose. Steph's brother Seth is quietly emerging as the star of an upstart Liberty squad that is 5-1. The Flames already have a win over Virginia, and just won an OT game against a quality George Mason side. Curry is already averaging 22 ppg.. as a freshman.

3 - Perhaps after tonight's drubbing, Purdue fans can take a step back from their "How dare you suggest we're not a Top 10 team" nonsense and return to reality. The Boilers are still (and have been for a year now) a fringe top 25 team.. nothing more, nothing less.

4 - Along with Tom Pritchard, Colton Iverson is another Big Ten rookie big who has impressed so far. Those two have put BJ Mullens to shame so far, as the highly-touted OSU center has yet to score double-digits.

5 - Another young Big Ten big to watch is Kyle Rowley.. a 7-footer on Northwestern. Don't get me wrong, Rowley is not an All-American talent, but as far as Northwestern recruits go.. he has the potential to be a major contributor with more experience.

6 - Who knew AD Vassallo could simply carry a team on his back like he did against Wisconsin Monday night. The Hokies ended up losing a well-fought thriller against Wisconsin, but it was a joy to watch Vassallo light it up from deep.

7 - One of the biggest league games of the year is about to happen tomorrow night. Cleveland State (5-2) hosts Butler (5-0) in an early-season battle between Horizon League contenders. I expect the Vikings to pick up the win and begin their quest for the league title.

7 - Mark down another quality win for Savannah State, who knocked off Bowling Green and are now 5-2. The fightin' Tigers lead all independent squads with a solid 125 RPI right now.

8 - I miss Thanksgiving basketball already.

9 - Remember when Siena was a trendy mid-major sleeper pick in all the preseason magazines?.. the Old Spice Classic sure killed all that talk.

10 - Last year, I gave Jon Diebler a lot of slack for hovering around college basketball's Mendoza Line (30 fg%), but it's nice to see he's off to a much better start this season and finding his long-range stroke.

11 - The emergence of Mike Davis has helped Illinois remain competitive despite a lack of big-time talent. The sophomore, who only played 10 mpg last year, is averaging over 15 ppg this year and poured in 28 against Clemson. The Illini lost by 2, but should pile up more wins in coming weeks as they continue to avoid the road. They'll end up playing only 1 true non-conference road game all season.. something to keep in mind when judging the team in March. Missouri on November 23rd (in St Louis) is their only remaining challenge before Big Ten play begins.

12 - Illinois' schedule looks treacherous compared to LSU's joke calendar. They start the season with 8 home games against teams that will all almost certainly finish in the bottom 150 of the RPI. It's almost like they're 0-0 so far.

13 - If Leo Lyons played 35 mpg like most big time players, you'd hear his name all the time. His 19 ppg and 7 rpg already look good enough, but are amazing considering he plays 24 mpg. He basically averages 30 points and 11 boards per 40 minutes.

14 - I don't watch enough Colorado State basketball (or his old NDSU teams) to know exactly how good a coach Tim Miles is, but he sure gives a good interview. This guy has a future.

15 - If not for Jack McClinton getting tossed from Miami's loss to OSU, the ACC might have finished 9-2 against the Big Ten. As it is, an 8-3 or 7-4 win is likely.

16 - IF UNC's bench (including Green & Davis when Ginyard & Hansbrough return) played as a separate team, I wonder how far they'd go in the NCAA Tournament?

17 - It will be unfortunate when UNC rips MSU apart on prime time TV tomorrow night. The Spartans were one of my teams heading into the season, but I dont see them coming close tomorrow. I've been wrong before though.

18 - Lowly NJIT had a chance over the weekend to finally win a game for the first time in almost two years, but blew a half-time lead against Monmouth. In two home games, they've lost by over 20 each time, but St. Peter's on November 10th could be the day the streak ends. For their sake, I hope it happens.

19 - I mentioned this on the message board, but Charlotte's had some rough luck so far. They've lost a game in double-OT, OT, by 1 point due to a late three, and another game by 1 point. All those losses add up to a disappointing 1-6 start for coach Lutz.

20 - There was an actual Zane Johnson sighting Tuesday night. The Arizona soph averaged a whopping 1 ppg in his 18 game career before blowing up for 18 against LMU. This was a consensus Top 150 product.

- Think I'm an idiot? Then prove your stuff in CHN's new Weekly Pickem Game.

GameNight: Illinois vs Tulsa (South Padre)

Evan Dorey — Sat, 29 Nov 2008 12:21:26 -0500

Start: Nov 29 2008 - 8:00pm

Preview & Prediction: By Evan Dorey

-- Evan Dorey's game previews & rankings are based on Elo Ratings. Elo Ratings are fairly simple, all teams are assigned an initial number of points, which is the same for all teams, eliminating preseason bias. Then, as the season progresses, when a team wins it gains points, and when it loses it drops points. The amount of points that are gained or lost depend on the level of the opponent (beating a cupcake gets you little, beating #1 will be a big increase), the scoring margin of the game (which is capped), and the game’s location. To take a look at Evan's College Basketball Elo Ratings, visit his website or blog where he discusses the rankings along with other statistical observations about big games and interesting teams.

While there are more than 110 games scheduled for today, many of the prime matchups in the big preseason tournaments are not on until Sunday, so today I’ll talk about an interesting, but not particularly high-profile game, #50 Tulsa (4-1) facing #17 Illinois (5-0) in South Padre Island, TX, in the final of the South Padre Island Invitational.

The unbeaten Illini picked up a very solid win at Vanderbilt last week, and opened the tournament by surviving a tight game with Kent St in overtime. Tulsa picked up a convincing loss at Oklahoma St., but rebounded in this tournament to beat Texas A&M by 11 to make the final.

These are two very solid defensive teams, and given that neither is particularly speedy, a game in the 60s should be expected. Tulsa’s defensive strength rests on good defense from three, as they certainly showed in holding the Aggies to just 2-17 from behind the arc. The Hurricane are a decent defensive force inside as well, as they do a good job contesting interior shots and are decent in pulling down defensive boards. Illinois has defended shots well, but their perimeter defense to date has been spotty, and has not been as effective overall as the Hurricane’s. Illinois is good at keeping their opponents off the free throw line, though given Tulsa’ s immense struggles there, this may not be that large a benefit.

Offensively, Illinois has a slight edge, mostly due to their solid three point shooting, along with their ability to gain a possession edge through preventing turnovers and grabbing offensive boards. They tend to focus their attack heavily inside, and use a lot of passes, leading the nation in assists/basket. Tulsa also feature a more inside oriented-attack, but they are on the whole better shooters from the field. However, the Hurricane have a number of glaring offensive weaknesses that can be exploited. They turn the ball over a fair amount, though Illinois hasn’t forced a lot of turnovers so far this season. They are also among the worst in the nation in racking up assists and in free throw shooting, falling below 55% from the line so far.

Ben Uzoh and Jerome Jordan are an inside-outside combination for Tulsa, one of whom has led in the team in scoring in every game so far this year. The 6-3 Uzoh has shot very well so far this season, and while he likely won’t stay at his current 61.7 eFG%, he will continue to be a very solid shooter from two and three for the Hurricanes, while at the same time running the team from the point. 7-footer Jerome Jordan has yet to play over 25 minutes in a game this year, but he is effective when he does play, shooting over 61% from the field and grabbing a handful of assists and blocks, along with a pretty solid free throw percentage for a big man.

Illinois have been getting important contributions from their own inside big men, Mike Davis in particular. Davis is the Big Ten’s leading rebounder so far this season, and has posted three double-doubles. His playing time has tripled from his first season, and while he has shown good form against a fairly soft schedule, whether he can accomplish this against some better defending is a big question. Outside support has come from senior Trent Meachem, who is a strong shooting guard and has started out on a solid clip. 7-1 Mike Tisdale hasn’t had a huge impact yet, but with that kind of size, a big breakout is always possible.

I would expect a fairly tight, defensive contest, with Tulsa just falling short. They seem to have weaknesses that are pretty significant on offense, and I’m not entirely convinced their defense will be as solid inside as it has been in the early going. Either way, the winner will have a decent win on their resume come at-large bid time.

Winner: Illinois Margin: 5-10

Big Ten Coach Ranking: Tom Terrific

Jeff Fox — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 12:44:24 -0500

It doesn't appear that too many Big Ten teams are going to light the college hoops world on fire this season. However, more than likely this will only be a temporary slump. With the level of coaching talent roaming the sidelines in the league, its teams are sure to be competing for national championships again sooner rather than later.

1) Tom Izzo - Michigan State

Tom Izzo is untouchable at the top of this list. Why? A national championship, four trips to the Final Four, four regular-season Big Ten titles, four National Coach of the Year awards. That's why.

2) Thad Matta - Ohio State

The trip to the 2007 title game was nice, but Thad Matta has built the Buckeyes program into more than just a one-year powerhouse. A serious bidder for all the top recruits in the country every year, Matta has also led the squad to 37 conference wins over the past three years, second best over this period behind Wisconsin.

3) Bo Ryan - Wisconsin

Speaking of the Badgers, Bo Ryan has led Wisconsin to a conference best 38 wins over the past three seasons. Despite always being overlooked and underrated, Ryan's squads get the job down year in, year out.

4) Tubby Smith - Minnesota

The much-maligned Tubby Smith has done nothing but win at every stop he has made in his coaching career. Minnesota shouldn't be any different.

5) Bruce Weber - Illinois

A few years back Bruce Weber probably could have given Izzo a tough run for his money for top spot on this list. However, his program has been in a steady decline since its 2005 peak.

6) Tom Crean - Indiana

It's going to take awhile to fix the mess Tom Crean inherited, but if he could recruit and win big time at Marquette, doing the same at Indiana shouldn't be a problem.

7) Matt Painter - Purdue

Matt Painter definitely has the Boilermakers back at the level the program was used to under his mentor Gene Keady. They should be at or near the top of the Big Ten at season's end and are poised to make some noise in the NCAA tournament.

8) John Beilein - Michigan

John Beilein is another coach who inherited a mess of a program. It'll probably take a few more years before he gets the Blue up to the level of success he enjoyed at West Virginia.

9) Todd Lickliter - Iowa

Todd Lickliter proved he could win big at a small-time school (Butler). Can he win in the Big Bad Big Ten though?

10) Ed DeChellis - Penn State

After posting seven conference wins last season, maybe Ed DeChellis has Penn State headed in the right direction.

11) Bill Carmody - Northwestern

The Wildcats won one conference game last season and two the year before. Enough said.

College Basketball: Coaches on the Hot Seat

Rob Carpentier — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 02:20:34 -0500

It’s that time of year again; that’s right everyone, its time to look at the coaches on the proverbial “hot seat” in major college basketball. This seems to be a bigger topic as each year rolls around and the build-up to this coming season is no different. There are several degrees of “hot” when discussing which coaches are actually in danger of losing their job. The reasons for being on the “hot seat” vary, from recruiting to alienating alumni to, of course, simply not winning enough. Even the question of winning “enough” has varying answers depending on the school that a particular coach is at.

Because this is a fluid concept, the “hot seat” will be broken down into three categories; hot, hotter and inferno. Coaches in one of the categories can easily move to another category or off this list altogether, depending on what transpires before New Year’s Day and the coming of conference games. Finally, this list is restricted to coaches from the traditional BCS conferences.

WARMING UP: Bobby Gonzalez (Seton Hall), Leonard Hamilton (FSU), Norm Roberts (St. John's), Jerry Wainwright (DePaul), Gary Williams (Maryland)

THE HOT LIST:

Johnnie Dawkins, Stanford: I know that Dawkins is in the first year of his contract, but the Cardinal are going to be one of the bottom feeders in the Pac-10 this season, and the Pac-10 will be down. Where Dawkins may run into early trouble is that it appears that it’s only going to get worse. Recruiting, considered a priority in the wake of losing the Lopez twins, has been abysmal. In fact the one solid recruit that Dawkins was supposed to count on, post Miles Plumlee, reneged on his commitment and is now headed to Dawkins’ old employer and school, Duke.

Bruce Weber, Illinois: Fans have come to expect big things for the Illini and, outside of the run to the NCAA title game (with Bill Self's players), Weber hasn’t delivered the kind of consistent excellence that many of the Illini fans crave. The past two seasons haven’t been great and this season should find the Illini in the middle of the Big 10 pack again. Weber needs to find a way to get sophomore Alex Legion to play to his potential. If that happens, Weber should be off this list. If not, he could find the flames getting much higher fairly quickly in spite of some big names headed to campus.. next year.

THE HOTTER LIST

Dennis Felton, Georgia: First off, Coach Felton runs his program the right way. There’s accountability and expectations and the kids are student-athletes. The trouble for Felton is that wins and losses are what count when it comes to keeping your job. In five years at Georgia, Felton has been to exactly 2 NIT’s, winning one game in the process, and, until last year’s improbable run through the SEC Tournament, he hadn’t been to the NCAA Tournament. That run saved Felton’s job, and if the Bulldogs play .500 or below ball again this season then Felton will be polishing his resume.

Fred Hill, Rutgers: Hill is a very good recruiter, but so far it hasn’t paid off as much as he’d like. The Scarlet Knights have been mired in the bottom of the Big East since Hill’s predecessor, Gary Waters, was the coach. Hill has gotten the team to look better on paper, but teams don’t fear the RAC like they used to. Hill is putting a lot of stock in two sophomore guards and a pair of big-name freshmen recruits, but he keeps missing out on the difference-making uber-recruit that could put Rutgers over the top. Hill and the Scarlet Knights have to show improvement because his situation hasn’t been made any easier by Jersey fans that are getting antsy because of the failures of the Rutgers football team this fall. In short, if Hill’s season is anything like last season, Rutgers will change coaches yet again.

Frank Martin, Kansas State: Martin put KSU back on the basketball map, and winning an NCAA Tourney game certainly helped, but now Martin doesn’t have Bill Walker or Michael Beasley around. The word on Martin is that he is a fantastic recruiter but a very mediocre X’s and O’s guy. This year he’ll need the latter to be much better. The tipping point is that Martin seemingly comes with a lot of baggage. As a result, Kansas State, which doesn’t have a squeaky clean reputation to begin with, may want to jettison the Martin experiment sooner rather than later as the Wildcats’ fortunes go south this winter.

THE INFERNO LIST

Sidney Lowe, North Carolina State: It doesn’t matter that Lowe is a legacy off of Jimmy V’s lone title team, he will be gone if this team doesn’t do well in the ACC and make the NCAA Tournament. After starting out creating some reasonable expectations after his first season, Lowe looked completely in over his head last season as the Wolfpack completely imploded both physically and emotionally on the court. NC State has some talent, but because of its Tobacco Road locale, Lowe doesn’t get the benefit of the doubt when his team appears to about to be overtaken by Wake Forest as the #3 team in North Carolina. State fans, alumni and administrators won’t stand for that.

Ernie Kent, Oregon: Kent has been on the proverbial Hot Seat for so long now that his "behind" is probably extra crispy. His perceived downfall at Oregon is because of a slew of questionable game decisions, the feeling that his teams never meet the expectations commiserate with the talent on hand and he is perceived as being poor with the press. There are also some personal issues puportedly hanging or were hanging over his head. Kent has been able to survive because of his ability, or his teams' ability to get to the Big Dance the past two years. However, there is a HUGE perception that both teams, even his Elite 8 team in 2007, underachieved. Those teams had players like Malik Hairston, Bryce Taylor and Maarty Leunen. Those three are now gone and there really isn't any comparable talent to take their places. In some circles there is the belief that the Oregon athletic administration is just waiting for a wins/losses reason to fire Kent. That very well may happen this year.