Illinois

Thursday First Round Predictions: ACC, Big Ten, SEC

Greg Mengelt — Thu, 08 Mar 2012 08:02:51 -0800

Our g ame prediction guru Greg Mengelt has been on fire this year. He'll be picking (just about) every conference tournament game over the next week, including tonight's three key championship games. Games listed in order with later rounds on top and earlier rounds at the bottom. Read more about Championship Week at CollegeHoops.net.

ACC FIRST ROUND: AT ATLANTA

(8) Maryland (16-14, 6-10) vs. (9) Wake Forest (13-17, 4-12)

Tipoff: Noon. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 11 – Maryland 70-64. RPI: Maryland 111, Wake Forest 169. Analysis: The ACC Tourney starts with an upset. Line: Maryland -3½. Pick: Wake Forest 60, Maryland 55.

(5) North Carolina State (20-11, 9-7) vs. (12) Boston College (9-21, 4-12)

Tipoff: 2 p.m. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 19 – N.C. State 76-62; Feb. 1 – N.C. State 56-51. RPI: N.C. State 52, BC 236. Analysis: The Wolfpack will pull away early for an easy win. Line: N.C. State -12. Pick: North Carolina State 73, Boston College 52.

(7) Clemson (16-14, 8-8) vs. (10) Virginia Tech (15-16, 4-12)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 4 – Virginia Tech 67-65; March 1 – Clemson 58-56. RPI: Clemson 138, Virginia Tech 119. Analysis: Remember when being .500 in the ACC meant a lock for the NCAA Tourney? Line: Clemson -2½. Pick: Clemson 64, Virginia Tech 62.

(6) Miami (18-11, 9-7) vs. (11) Georgia Tech (11-19, 4-12)

Tipoff: 9 p.m. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 24 – Miami 64-49*. RPI: Miami 50, Georgia Tech 183. Analysis: Strange line. Makes me think Vegas knows something the rest of us don’t. Oh, well. The Hurricanes are significantly better. Line: Miami -4. Pick: Miami 67, Georgia Tech 57.

BIG TEN FIRST ROUND: AT INDIANAPOLIS

(8) Iowa (16-15, 8-10) vs. (9) Illinois (17-14, 6-12)

Tipoff: 11:30 a.m. TV: Big Ten Network. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 26 – Illinois 65-54. RPI: Iowa 131, Illinois 77. Analysis: Not sure the Illinois players are interested in playing another game. Line: Illinois -2½. Pick: Iowa 60, Illinois 55.

(5) Indiana (24-7, 11-7) vs. (12) Penn State (12-19, 4-14)

Tipoff: 2 p.m. TV: Big Ten Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 8 – Indiana 88-82*; Jan. 22 – Indiana 73-54. RPI: Indiana 11, Penn State 156. Analysis: The Hoosiers are playing as well as anyone in the Big Ten – if not the nation. Line: Indiana -11½. Pick: Indiana 81, Penn State 67.

(7) Northwestern (18-12, 8-10) vs. (10) Minnesota (18-13, 6-12)

Tipoff: 5:30 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 22 – Minnesota 75-52; Feb. 18 – Northwestern 64-53. RPI: Northwestern 41, Minnesota 89. Analysis: John Shurna and Drew Crawford will not let the Wildcats lose this game. Line: Northwestern -2½. Pick: Northwestern 68, Minnesota 62.

(6) Purdue (20-11, 10-8) vs. (11) Nebraska (12-17, 4-14)

Tipoff: 8 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 22 – Purdue 83-65. RPI: Purdue 41, Nebraska 140. Analysis: Purdue has won 3-of-4 and even in the loss at Indiana, the Boilermakers played pretty well for most of the game. Line: Purdue -8. Pick: Purdue 79, Nebraska 64.

SEC FIRST ROUND: AT NEW ORLEANS

(8) LSU (17-13, 7-9) vs. (9) Arkansas (18-13, 6-10)

Tipoff: 1 p.m. TV: SEC Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 14 – Arkansas 69-60; Feb. 4 – LSU 71-65. RPI: LSU 84, Arkansas 92. Analysis: A strange season comes to an Arkansas. Things should start to improve next season under Mike Anderson. Line: LSU -1. Pick: LSU 73, Arkansas 68.

(5) Alabama (20-10, 9-7) vs. (12) South Carolina (10-20, 2-14)

Tipoff: 3:30 p.m. TV: SEC Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 25 – South Carolina 56-54. RPI: Alabama 32, USC 185. Analysis: This game could just go a lot of different ways, depending on how interested the Tide are, but eight points is too big of a line for what should be a low-scoring game. Line: Alabama -8. Pick: Alabama 58, South Carolina 52.

(7) Mississippi (18-12, 8-8) vs. (10) Auburn (15-15, 5-11)

Tipoff: 7:30 p.m. TV: SEC Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 14 – Auburn 69-68 (2OT); Feb. 11 – Ole Miss 61-54. RPI: Ole Miss 51, Auburn 136. Analysis: The Rebels are back on the bubble after three straight wins, but Auburn will end the dream. Line: Ole Miss -2½. Pick: Auburn 66, Mississippi 63.

(6) Mississippi State (21-10, 8-8) vs. (11) Georgia (14-16, 5-11)

Tipoff: 10 p.m. TV: SEC Network. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 11 – Georgia 70-68 (OT)*. RPI: MSU 64, Georgia 107. Analysis: Both teams are so unpredictable that it’s hard to tell how this one’s going to go. The Bulldogs are physically superior, though. Line: MSU -5. Pick: Mississippi State 71, Georgia 65.

*Road win

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 143-108-3

Bracketology: Remaining Teams That Can Steal Bids

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 06 Mar 2012 19:55:54 -0800

While bubble teams were able to breathe easier when Murray St and Creighton won close conference titles, the coast is not entirely clear.

Here's a brief look at the remaining teams most likely to "steal" bids from the bubble hopefuls**.

ACC

With UNC and Duke lurking, its hard to imagine a spoiler coming from the ACC, but you never know..

Clemson (16-14, 8-8, RPI #138)

The ACC might be down this year, but .500 in that league still counts for something. The Tigers would need to beat VT in the opening round and then steal one from Duke. Clemson only lost to Duke by 7 at Cameron.

Maryland (16-14, 6-10, RPI #110)

The Terps have an easy opening game against Wake Forest, and they'd they have to beat UNC in the quarterfinals.

Atlantic 10
While Temple and St Louis are locks, there is a ton of parity in the A10. All of these teams deserve more respect than they get nationally and are extremely dangerous in the A10 tournament.

Dayton (20-11, 9-7, #73)

Dayton cruised past GW in the opening round and now faces Xavier. While Xavier is more likely to get an at-large bid, both teams have similar resumes. The loser of that game will be eliminated from at-large contention.

La Salle (210-11, 9-7, #79)

La Salle beat a tough Richmond squad in the opening round and now faces Saint Louis. La Salle struggled against the Billikens earlier in the year, but does have a geographical advantage playing in Atlantic City.

St Bonaventure (17-11, 10-6, #95)

A dangerous squad, St Bonaventure faces bubble team Saint Joseph's Wednesday afternoon. The Bonnies have already beaten Saint Joe's and with Andrew Nicholson leading the way, no one wants to face them.

UMASS (21-10, 9-7, #87)

UMASS topped Duquesne Tuesday night, which sets up an afternoon game with #1 seed Temple. UMASS took Temple to OT a few weeks, so they're far from scared.

Big East

UCONN showed that its not impossible to run through the Big East Tournament from a Tuesday start.

Pittsburgh (17-15, 5-13, #98)

Perhaps there is a little bit of magic left from this preseason top 25 team that struggled mightily.

Big Ten
These 3 teams have had their moments during the season, and would need to go on epic runs to win the league.

Illinois (17-14, 6-12, #82)

As bad as Illinois has been, how many teams have beaten the likes of Michigan St, Ohio St, and Gonzaga. The Illini would need Brandon Paul to go off for 40 every game in Indy..

Iowa (16-15, 8-10, #131)

Iowa has been surprisingly competitive this year, and has beaten Wisconsin twice along with beating Michigan and Indiana. They face Illinois in round one, the winner could have great momentum going forward.

Minnesota (18-13, 6-12, #81)

Once considered a potential tourney team, Minnesota's season went south in a hurry. They face bubble team Northwestern in round one and could seriously hurt the Wildcats at-large hopes.

Conference USA

While the RPI suggests Memphis and Southern Miss are by far the class of this league, these teams certainly have to be feared. If not for the tournament being in Memphis, the odds of one of these teams stealing a bid would be even bigger.

UCF (21-9, 10-6, #64)

With an opening round by, the Knights would face the winner of UAB or Tulane in round two. UCF is a close loss or two away from being firmly in the NCAA Tournament field. With the exception of one bad showing at Memphis, UCF has been competitive in every CUSA game.

Marshall (18-12, 9-7, #66)

Like UCF, Marshall is a dangerous squad that could be looking at the NCAA's with a little more luck. As it is, they have a very favorable spot in the bracket, opening against SMU and then potentially facing Tulsa in the quarterfinals.

Tulsa (17-13, 10-6, #112)

Most wouldn't have guessed that Tulsa would earn the #3 seed in the CUSA Tournament.

UTEP (14-16, 7-9, #158)

A real darkhorse as a #8 seed, UTEP has beaten Memphis and Southern Miss this year, so you never what could happen if they got hot.

MWC
The MWC is a small league, so you only have to win 3 games to earn the title.

Wyoming (20-10, 6-8, #80)

The Cowboys face UNLV in the opening round, and have already beaten the Rebels. While they've struggled away from home, they can't be written off.

TCU (17-13, 7-7, #101)

TCU can ruin Colorado St's bubble hopes in the opening round. The two split their season series, and the game should be close.

Pac-12
The Pac-12 is a complete mess. Cal and Washington can't be considered locks and a ton of teams could potentially win the league title.

Arizona (21-10, 12-6, #77)

Arizona awaits the winner of UCLA/USC after getting a first round bye.

Colorado (19-11, 11-7, #83)

The #6 seed opens with lowly Utah. The Buffs aren't that much worse than anyone else in the league.

Stanford (20-10, 10-8, #97)

The only team in the league to beat a Top 50 opponent in non-conference play, Stanford has been playing better after slumping a few weeks back.

UCLA (18-13, 11-7, #118)

With the tournament in Los Angeles, and a favorable bracket, you certainly can't write off the Bruins.

SEC

Outside of Kentucky, the SEC is much more even than you might think. Teams like Florida and Vanderbilt are overrated, and 2nd seed Tennessee is not that great away from home. Kentucky might lose focus, and then the league is up for grabs.

Arkansas (18-13, 6-10, #100)

If the Hogs can get by LSU, they'd face Kentucky in the quarterfinals. If they could somehow beat UK..

LSU (17-13, 7-9, #89)

The same exact situation as Arkansas.

**I'll define the bubble as including the following teams:

BYU

California

Colorado St

Drexel

Miami

NC State

Northwestern

Ole Miss

Oregon

Saint Joseph's

Seton Hall

South Florida

Tennessee

Texas

UCONN

Washington

Xavier

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Ducks Get Hot in the Second Half: Thursday's Quick Hitters

Raphielle Johnson — Fri, 02 Mar 2012 07:32:39 -0800

Florida State's Ian Miller knocked down a three-pointer with eight tenths of a second remaining to give the Seminoles a 63-60 win at Virginia, who will finish the regular season without a win over any of the top three teams in the ACC.

1. Oregon scored 54 second-half points to erase a five-point halftime deficit and beat Colorado.
The battle in Eugene between the Ducks and Buffaloes was likely more of a "bubble eliminator" contest, with the loser most likely needing to win the Pac-12 tournament in order to go dancing. Unfortunately for Colorado, who has struggled on the road all season, their play on the defensive end let them down in the second half. Oregon shot 61.5% in the second half of their 90-81 win, which also moved the Ducks closer to a first-round bye in next week's conference tournament. Devoe Joseph scored 24 points and Garrett Sim added 19 for Oregon, who shot 8-for-14 from beyond the arc as well. Carlon Brown snapped out of his funk to lead four Colorado players in double figures with 20 points, and despite the loss that's an important development for the Buffs. If he's playing efficiently they can win the Pac-12 tournament, which they will likely have to do in order to reach the Field of 68.

2. Nevada clinches the WAC regular season title, and there won't be many highly ranked teams who will line up to face them in the Big Dance.
Regardless of what seed line David Carter's Wolf Pack end up on, they're not going to be a fun matchup for the team that draws them should they win the WAC's automatic bid. Olek Czyz led three Nevada players in double figures with 15 points and their defending of a ball screen in the final seconds eventually forced a New Mexico State turnover to seal the 65-61 win. NMSU's final sequence looked to be doomed from the start but head coach Marvin Menzies chose to play it out despite having a timeout remaining, ultimately leading to Hernst LaRoche throwing the ball away. Wendell McKines led the Aggies with 19 points and LaRoche added 12 in what could have been a preview of next weekend's title game. With the likes of Czyz, Deonte Burton, Dario Hunt and Malik Story the Wolf Pack have talented weapons that can give teams fits, and there won't be any highly-seeded teams lining up for their shot at Nevada.

3. Quinnipiac is the lone road team to win in the NEC quarterfinals.
Of course in a conference tournament in which the higher seeded teams host all the game the 4/5 matchup tends to be the one most likely to produce a win for the road team. That rang true for the Patriot League Wednesday night (Lafayette) and for the NEC on Thursday, as fifth-seed Quinnipiac beat St. Francis (NY) 80-72 to set up a semifinal matchup with regular season champion LIU Brooklyn. The Bobcats, who are the best rebounding team in the NEC, grabbed 20 offensive rebounds and out-rebounded the Terriers 48-36 on the night. James Johnson didn't shoot well from the field (4-for-14) but he did make 12 of 17 from the foul line and scored a game-high 22 points to go along with eight rebounds, and Ike Azotam scored 15 and grabbed 12 boards inside. Brent Jones led four SFNY players in double figures with 21 points but the rebounding issues were too much to overcome. And that aspect of Quinnipiac's game is what gives them more than a puncher's chance at LIU on Sunday.

Quick Hitters

1. D.J. Covington scored 16 points and blocked four shots in 20 minutes of action to help lead VMI past Winthrop 75-55 as the Keydets advanced to the Big South title game. The seven-seed will face regular season champ UNC Asheville, who whipped Charleston Southern 91-64, on Saturday afternoon.

2. Darius Miller scored 17 points on Senior Night to help lead #1 Kentucky to a 79-49 win over Georgia, moving the Wildcats' win streak to 21. UK shot 15-for-27 from three, and when the Wildcats are rolling like that it's near impossible to knock them off.

3. Meyers Leonard scored 18 points and grabbed nine rebounds but it wasn't enough to lead Illinois past #16 Michigan, who won 72-61. Tim Hardaway Jr. scored 25 points and grabbed 11 boards for the Wolverines, who remain alive in the Big Ten title race.

4. Five Mississippi Valley State players reached double figures in scoring but it wasn't enough to lock up an undefeated run through SWAC play as the Delta Devils lost 78-67 at UAPB. Daniel Broughton scored 26 points and grabbed 13 rebounds off the bench to lead the Golden Lions. But regardless of the result Sean Woods' club will enter the conference tournament as the clear favorite to grab the automatic bid.

5. UCLA didn't look too distracted by the Sports Illustrated article that came out earlier this week, as they whipped Washington State 78-46 at the Sports Arena. Lazeric Jones knocked down eight of his ten shots from the field and scored 18 points to lead the Bruins, who host a Washington team looking to wrap up the outright regular season crown on Saturday.

6. Doubleheaders in the Missouri Valley, Ohio Valley and WCC all went according to seed on Thursday night, and if one team were to be pegged as most likely to win on Friday it could be Tennessee Tech. The Golden Eagles held off a Southeast Missouri State rally to win 77-73, and with players such as Kevin Murphy (24 points) and Jud Dillard (18) they've got the horses needed to upset top-seed Murray State in the semis. Also keep an eye on Indiana State, who beat Southern Illinois 65-49 to set up a matchup with MVC champ Wichita State, especially if point guard Jake Odum's foot holds up.

7. Binghamton, who won just one game during the regular season, knocked off eight-seed UMBC 73-67 in overtime to advance to the quarterfinals in the America East tournament. Ben Dickinson led the Bearcats, who will take on regular season champion Stony Brook, with 21 points.

8. Derrick Rudolph led three players in double figures with 21 points in Savannah State's 73-54 win at Maryland-Eastern Shore, wrapping up the Tigers' first-ever MEAC regular season title. The coaches picked Horace Broadnax's team to finish 11th in the preseason.

Oregon vs. Colorado: Thursday's Preview

Raphielle Johnson — Thu, 01 Mar 2012 00:42:15 -0800

Thursday's Conference Tournament Primer

Thursday night features a very important matchup in the Pac-12 of teams that are hoping to make a good case that they should be in the NCAA tournament field. Oregon (20-8, 11-5), who is 13-3 at Matthew Knight Court this season, hosts Colorado (19-9, 11-5) in a matchup of two teams who staged a tight (and controversial) contest about a month ago. A foul call on E.J. Singler with less than a second remaining proved to be the difference in Colorado's 72-71 win in Boulder, and a sweep of the season series would definitely help the Buffaloes when it comes to a possible bubble pecking order.

The officiating was a point of contention throughout the game for Duck fans as Colorado attempted thirteen more free throws (30-17), but the bigger issue was a combined 29 turnovers. One of the biggest culprits for either team was Colorado senior guard Carlon Brown, and frankly he had a February to forget. Brown reached double figures three times but hasn't shot better than 41.6% from the field since a late January win over USC, and if he can't make better decisions the Buffaloes can end up in trouble. The good news for Tad Boyle: he's got other guys who can step up, most notably a freshman named Spencer Dinwiddie.

Dinwiddie's fourth on the team in scoring with an average of 10.6 points per game, and after a pair of rough games against Utah and Stanford the California native rebounded with 15 points in the win over Cal on Sunday. Nate Tomlinson has steadily improved running the show and freshman Askia Booker (17 points in the first meeting) has been a capable reserve for much of the season. CU's got some talent on the perimeter but they'll have their hands full with the Oregon backcourt, which is led by Minnesota transfer Devoe Joseph. Joseph, who some believe to be a Pac-12 Player of the Year candidate, leads the team in scoring and ranks second in assists.

The addition of Joseph as a mid-year transfer has done a great deal for Dana Altman's team, as his ability to create has boosted the likes of Singler and Garrett Sim. Singler has been one of the Pac-12's most versatile players and he put up 13 and 13 in the first meeting, and while Sim struggled (six points) he is a 1,000-plus point scorer over his career. The play in the front court will also be worth watching, because while the Ducks have an edge in height Colorado's the better rebounding team thanks in large part to Andre Roberson. Roberson leads the Pac-12 in rebounding with an average of 11.4 rebounds per game, a number that places him in the Top 10 nationally.

Senior Austin Dufault has been the anchor in the middle but he's grabbing just 4.6 rebounds per game, as Colorado tends to rebound by committee outside of Roberson. Oregon has seven players averaging between 3.0 and 5.4 rebounds per game, with Singler leading the way and bigs Olu Ashaolu and Tony Woods being the starters inside. The high-flying Carlos Emory is a key reserve, as are Tyrone Nared and Jeremy Jacob. The problem for Oregon: they allow opponents to grab 31.6% of their misses, but they did a good job of keeping the Buffs off the glass in the first meeting (four offensive rebounds).

There wasn't much separating these two teams on February 4th and there likely won't be on Thursday night either. If Oregon can keep Roberson off the glass and knock down a few three-pointers they'll be in good position to pick up the win. Colorado on the other hand needs Brown to snap out of his funk, or at the very least be sure not to become a hindrance due to questionable shot selection. A win won't do a great amount for either team's resume in regards to the computer numbers, but it could serve the victor well if the two should be compared in the selection room.

Virginia is likely in good shape for an at-large bid but it never hurts to pick up another win against a ranked team, and the Cavaliers will have the opportunity to do so with #22 Florida State visiting Charlottesville. Mike Scott has been one of the best players in the ACC but he's going to need some help from the likes of Sammy Zeglinski and Jontel Evans against one of the nation's best defensive teams. FSU won a tight affair between the two in Tallahassee, and the return meeting should be along those lines as well.

Illinois still has plenty of work to do in regards to simply making the tournament, and a win over #16 Michigan would do wonders for a resume that was nearly ripped to shreds during their recent skid. If Brandon Paul can score and be efficient while doing so the Illini are more than capable of knocking off the Wolverines, and it's important that they remember Meyers Leonard inside as well. And in the WAC the matchup of New Mexico State and Nevada could be a preview of next weekend's WAC tournament final. Deonte Burton and the Wolf Pack have been the best team in the WAC all season long, and a win over the Aggies would mean an outright regular season title.

Top 25 Games
9:00 PM Georgia at (1) Kentucky (ESPN)
7:00 PM (16) Michigan at Illinois (ESPN)
7:00 PM (22) Florida State at Virginia (ESPN2)

NCAA Division I Games
2:30 PM North Florida vs East Tennessee State* (ESPN3)
6:00 PM VMI vs Winthrop* (ESPNU)
7:00 PM North Carolina Central at Hampton
7:00 PM Sacred Heart at LIU Brooklyn
7:00 PM Monmouth at Robert Morris
7:00 PM Quinnipiac at St. Francis (NY)
7:00 PM Southeast Missouri State vs Tennessee Tech*
7:00 PM Central Connecticut State at Wagner
7:05 PM Southern Illinois vs Indiana State*
7:30 PM Morgan State at Florida A&M
7:30 PM Coppin State at Bethune-Cookman
7:30 PM South Carolina State at Delaware State
7:30 PM Savannah State at Maryland-Eastern Shore
8:00 PM Texas Southern at Alcorn State
8:00 PM Charleston Southern at UNC-Asheville (ESPNU)
8:00 PM Norfolk State at North Carolina A&T
8:15 PM Binghamton vs UMBC*
8:30 PM Jackson State at Alabama A&M
8:30 PM Grambling State at Alabama State
8:30 PM Mississippi Valley State at Arkansas-Pine Bluff
8:30 PM Prairie View A&M at Southern
8:30 PM Florida Gulf Coast vs USC Upstate* (ESPN3)
9:00 PM Villanova at Rutgers (ESPN2)
9:00 PM Virginia Tech at Clemson (ESPN3)
9:00 PM Jacksonville State vs Morehead State*
9:00 PM Portland vs San Francisco* (ESPN3)
9:35 PM Bradley vs Drake*
10:00 PM UC Davis at Cal Poly
10:00 PM Utah at Oregon State
10:00 PM Pacific at UC Santa Barbara
10:05 PM Utah State at San Jose State
10:30 PM Washington State at UCLA
10:30 PM Washington at USC
10:30 PM Colorado at Oregon (FSN)
11:00 PM Louisiana Tech at Fresno State
11:00 PM Pepperdine vs San Diego* (ESPN3)
11:00 PM New Mexico State at Nevada (ESPN2)
12:00 AM Idaho at Hawaii

Bracketology Review: Illinois, Mississippi St, NC St, SDSU, SMC, UNLV

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 19 Feb 2012 22:21:05 -0800

Six of last week's CollegeHoops.net Top 50 teams lost twice since last Sunday: UNLV, San Diego St, Saint Mary's, Mississippi St, NC State, and Illinois. In last Tuesday's Bracketology Projection, those team's were seeded as follows:

UNLV - 3 seed

San Diego St - 5 seed

Saint Mary's - 5 seed

Mississippi St - 7 seed

NC State - 11 seed

Illinois - 11 seed

Illinois and Mississippi St were already in downtrends heading into this past week's debacle, while the other 4 teams were mostly cruising along without incident. While I can't say exactly where these 6 teams will fall in this week's projection (that won't be finalized until tomorrow night), I thought it would be a good time to discuss the best and worst case scenarios facing these teams.

UNLV (22-6, 6-4, tied 2nd MWC)

Last Week: 3 seed

This Week Probable: 4-5 seed

Despite back to back losses, UNLV still has a chance to work their way back into a very high seed. With the big win against UNC under their belt, UNLV still sits impressively at 12th in the RPI. The TCU loss was their only to a team outside of the Top 100, and that game went to OT. More problematic is that in road games against solid teams like New Mexico, Wichita St, and Wisconsin, the Rebels lost by 10+ points each time. This could scare committee members who think UNLV can only win in Las Vegas. Winning their lone remaining road game at Colorado St (not an easy place to play) would help quell those fears.

Outside of that Colorado St game, UNLV's other 3 games are probable wins. And with the conference tournament in Vegas, there's no reason they shouldn't make a good run. If UNLV can beat Colorado St, its not inconceivable they could re-earn an extremely high seed.

Best Case Selection Sunday: 3 seed

Worst Case Selection Sunday: 8 seed

Saint Mary's (23-5, 12-2, 1st in WCC)

Last Week: 5 seed

This Week Probable: 5-7 seed

Saint Mary's was put in a tough spot having to fly across the country in the middle of February to face Murray St. It was a game that they really were not expected to win, and I don't think the committee will make much of it. However, the timing was quite poor considering they were coming off a dud loss to Loyola Marymount. LMU is an underrated Top 100 squad, but teams with aspirations of a 4 seed shouldn't lose home games to teams outside of the Top 50.

With only 2 conference games left, both on the road to subpar opponents, SMC probably won't have another chance for a marquee win unless they face Gonzaga in the conference finals. Thus they are put in a tough spot: they can only go down from here and not up.

Best Case Selection Sunday: 5 seed

Worst Case Selection Sunday: 9 seed

San Diego St (20-6, 6-4, tied 2nd MWC)

Last Week: 5 seed

This Week Probable: 7-8 seed

Despite entering the week 13th in the AP Poll, the computer rankings were never in love with San Diego St. After 2 losses this week, SDSU dropped to 33rd in the RPI and 61st in Ken Pomeroy's ranking. This is mainly because although the Aztecs have nice wins over UNLV, New Mexico, and Cal, they played 8 games against joke sub-200 teams that killed their schedule strength. Losing at Air Force was completely out of character for a team that does a great job of winning the games they're supposed to win. SDSU hadn't lost to a sub-50 RPI team since January 9th, 2010. Not a bad run.

With 4 games remaining (and none against UNLV or UNM), it would not surprise me to see SDSU finish 10-4 in conference play. This would keep them in contention for an AP Top 25 spot and thus a high seed in the tournament. A loss however coupled with a further erosion of their RPI into the 40's could push SDSU down into a double-digit seed.

Best Case Selection Sunday: 5 seed

Worst Case Selection Sunday: 10 seed

Mississippi St (19-8, 6-6, tied 4th SEC)

Last Week: 7 seed

This Week Probable: 9-12 seed

Up until February 10th, Mississippi St had a solid, yet unspectacular resume that was devoid of a bad loss. The road loss at Arkansas wasn't that big of a deal, and neither was the early home loss to an Akron squad that played themselves onto the fringe of the NCAA bubble. But then the Bulldogs went and loss at home to Georgia, on the road to LSU, and on Saturday they fell to Auburn. With a mediocre RPI of 59, they're suddenly just hoping to back into the NCAA Tournament.

Mississippi St's season could go one of two directions from here on out. They have 4 games before the conference tournament, including must-wins (at South Carolina, vs Arkansas) and resume-boosting home games against Kentucky and Alabama. Obviously, a win over UK would be a game-changer with huge ramifications. More likely, 3-1 with a win in the SEC Tournament should lead to a bid. However, 2-2 or worse mixed with an early exit in the SEC Tournament could find the Bulldogs a 3 or 4 seed.. in the NIT.

Best Case Selection Sunday: 6 seed

Worst Case Selection Sunday: NIT

NC State (18-9, 7-5, tied 4th ACC)

Last Week: 11 seed

This Week Probable: Firmly on Bubble

NC State dropped to 60th in the RPI after losing to Duke and FSU. While .500 or better in the ACC usually garners a bid, the conference is down compared to recent years. 8-8 won't get it done for NC State this year, they need to win at least 2 of their remaining 4 games (home vs UNC and Miami, and on the road at Clemson and VT.) The Miami game looms particularly large considering Miami has bubble aspirations of their own. Right now, Miami is NC State's lone Top 50 RPI win (though Texas is 51st) so its not like they've been world-beaters. (Oddly, NC State could beat Miami, knock Miami out of the Top 50, and thus be left with no Top 50 wins by winning the game.)

Best Case Selection Sunday: 8 seed

Worst Case Selection Sunday: NIT

Illinois (16-11, 5-9, tied 9th Big Ten)

Last Week: 11 seed

This Week Probable: NIT

Its odd to be talking about a 9th place team even having a chance to make the Dance. But the Big Ten is loaded this year, and 6 or 7 teams are likely to make the tournament. With MSU, OSU, UM, UW, and IU looking like locks, this leaves the likes of Purdue, Northwestern, Illinois, and Minnesota fighting over one or potentially two spots.

Despite having lost 8 of 9 games, Illinois is not officially out of contention yet (even if fans want to run Bruce Weber out of town.) No other bubble team can match the Illini's marquee wins over Gonzaga, Ohio St, and Michigan St. The committee likes "big" wins, and all 3 of those teams are in the RPI Top 20.

The Big Ten is deep enough that if Illinois went 3-1 the rest of the way and won a game in the conference tournament, they could get in. To go 3-1 though, Illinois would have to beat one of Ohio St and Wisconsin the road, no small feat for a team that's lone conference road win was by a point at Northwestern. Illinois is hanging on by the slimmest of margins.

Best Case Selection Sunday: 10 seed

Worst Case Selection Sunday: CBI/CIT

Lobos Strengthen Grip on Mountain West: Saturday's Recap

Raphielle Johnson — Sun, 19 Feb 2012 07:37:42 -0800

With games at #13 San Diego State and against #11 UNLV this week, Steve Alford's New Mexico Lobos had a great opportunity to not only take control of the Mountain West but also make a statement nationally.

Mission accomplished.

Drew Gordon was outstanding, scoring 27 points and grabbing 20 rebounds as the Lobos whipped UNLV 65-45 in Albuquerque. And while Gordon was outstanding the effort of New Mexico on the defensive end of the floor shouldn't be ignored. UNLV shot just 31.1% from the field for the game, by far their worst performance of the season, and the Runnin' Rebels scored just 18 points in the second half. Anthony Marshall, who finished with 18 points, scored 12 of those second half points and outside of the junior UNLV shot 2-for-13 from the field.

Meanwhile Gordon was a man among boys in the final 20 minutes as he shot 9-for-13 from the field and accounted for 18 points and 11 rebounds. Tony Snell added 12 points in a game that saw both teams go on runs early, but neither could establish any kind of distance in the first half. But the Lobos' intensity on the defensive end combined with heavy doses of Gordon proved to be too much in front of a frenzied crowd at The Pit.

"I don't know if we are the best team in this league yet but there is no team in the last month that has guarded the way that we have guarded," remarked Alford. "To hold a team like this who is averaging 80 points a game, and you hold them to four field goals in one half is great."

In addition to their victory New Mexico received some help from an unlikely source as San Diego State fell 58-56 at Air Force. As a result the Lobos find themselves two games up on both the Aztecs and Runnin' Rebels with four league games to go. Remember that SDSU/UNLV "round three" that many (myself included) were clamoring for in light of their split of the season series? We may get that matchup, but thanks to New Mexico it will likely have to come a round early in the Mountain West tournament.

Other Notable Happenings

1. Murray State takes care of a hobbled Saint Mary's in the Sears BracketBusters headliner.
Much importance was placed on the Sears BracketBusters matchup between Murray State and Saint Mary's, with many hypothesizing that the Racers would have to get this game in order to have a shot at an at-large bid (at 25-1 coming in, this talk seemed to be an absurd overreaction). The Gaels were with a hobbled Matthew Dellavedova and without the injured Stephen Holt, and Isaiah Canaan and company took care of business accordingly. Canaan scored 23 points and dished out four assists in leading Murray State to the 65-51 win, and despite their size disadvantage inside Steve Prohm's club out-rebounded SMC 31-24.

Just as important as Canaan however was the Murray State effort on the defensive end, as they limited Saint Mary's to 37.7% shooting and 2-for-14 from beyond the arc. Dellavedova managed a team-best 17 points but getting outscored by 21 points from beyond the arc (27-6) and Jorden Page and Rob Jones combining to shoot 3-for-18 from the field proved to be too much to overcome. The win should satisfy the masses with regards to Murray State's chances should they not win the OVC's automatic bid, and the task for Randy Bennett's team is to simply get healthy and protect their one-game lead in the WCC.

2. Trey Burke makes the difference as Michigan beat Ohio State in Ann Arbor.
It may be time to end the debate as to not only who the best freshman point guard in America is but also the conversation regarding the Big Ten's best point guard regardless of class. Michigan's Trey Burke scored 17 points and dished out five assists in the Wolverines' 56-51 win over #6 Ohio State to pull into a tie with the Buckeyes a game behind Michigan State in the loss column. His work against Aaron Craft proved to be the difference as Craft struggled, scoring four points on 1-for-6 shooting with three assists and two turnovers.

Deshaun Thomas led the Buckeyes with 25 points and Jared Sullinger was able to muster 14 despite being the focus of Michigan's interior defense, but with Tim Hardaway Jr. adding 13 points and Jordan Morgan a double-double (11 points, 11 rebounds) Michigan was able to give the home folks what they wanted. Guard play wins out more times than not especially in March, and it's very apparent that Michigan is in a good position thanks to Burke.

3. Antoine Young's shot with three-tenths of a second remaining completes the Creighton comeback.
This Sears BracketBuster did not fail to live up to the hype that preceded it as the 49ers and Bluejays put on a show in Omaha. Dan Monson's club led for much of the night but down the stretch Creighton was able to turn the momentum in their favor. And they were able to do so by ramping up their intensity of the defensive end of the floor. "Holding" a team to 50% shooting from the field isn't all that impressive until two factors are noticed: Long Beach State shot 68% in the first half, and the 49ers were just 1-for-5 from beyond the arc after shooting 60% in the first half. Antoine Young would cap the rally with a jumper over T.J. Robinson with less than a second remaining, giving Creighton a needed 81-79 win.

Long Beach State's versatility allows them to switch just about any ball screen, and to head coach Greg McDermott and his players' credit they were able to take advantage of it. Creighton's win can't be mentioned without noting the play of Doug McDermott either, who took full advantage of playing a team unfamiliar with his skill set by scoring 36 points and grabbing 11 rebounds. Robinson (20 points, eight rebounds) and Casper Ware (21 points) led the way for the 49ers, who have the remainder of the Big West season to look forward to. Creighton likely locked up an at-large bid barring a collapse, and while Long Beach State has seen some of their bigger wins devalued two things need to be remembered. One, it's not their fault that Xavier and Pittsburgh haven't performed to expectations, and two 37 teams are needed should the 49ers not win the automatic bid. Are there really 37 teams better than Long Beach State? No.

4. Kansas State picks up a win they truly needed as they beat #10 Baylor in Waco.
Given the tough four-game stretch that Frank Martin's team is currently in, it was clear that the Wildcats would have their work cut out for them from a tournament resume standpoint. But those games can be looked at as either a challenge or an opportunity, and how they're seen is up to the team and no one else. Opportunity knocked in the form of a trip to Baylor on Saturday and the Wildcats took advantage, beating the Bears 57-56 in a weird finish. A Jordan Henriquez dunk with 1:55 remaining gave K-State a 57-56 lead, and with neither team scoring another point that would be the final score as well.

Quincy Acy, who finished with 14 points, looked to have been fouled just over 20 seconds later on a shot attempt but no call came and Quincy Miller (12 points, 11 rebounds) missed a shot that would have given the Bears the lead in the final seconds. Angel Rodriguez and Rodney McGruder scored 15 apiece to lead the Wildcats, but the biggest story on the box score has to be the lack of production from Perry Jones III. Jones III managed just four points and four rebounds before fouling out in just 22 minutes of action, and if Baylor's to do anything of note in March these kind of performances can't happen. Kansas State picked up a win they desperately needed however, helping to relieve some of the pressure they may have felt going to their game at Missouri on Tuesday night.

5. Washington beats Arizona but was there anything gained from the result?
There's no denying the fact that the game between the Huskies and Wildcats was an important one within the Pac-12, as the Huskies (tied with California) enjoyed a one-game lead over Arizona (Colorado and Oregon as well) going into Saturday's action. But what does the game, which Washington won 79-70, mean to both in regards to their hopes of an at-large berth? For Arizona it seems quite simple in defeat: win out with games against the L.A. schools at home and a trip to Arizona State and then do some damage at the Pac-12 tournament.

The Wildcats shot just 35.5% from the field in the second half, 2-for-13 from three, as they were unable to make up the two-point halftime deficit (39-37). Terrence Ross led the Huskies with 25 points and Tony Wroten added 22 and nine assists, but with computer numbers that don't jump off the screen at first glance and an 0-4 record against RPI Top 50 teams it will be interesting to see what's made of the Huskies. To say the least a regular season Pac-12 crown would help their cause immensely, and Washington took a step in that direction on Saturday afternoon.

Quick Hitters

1. There were few results more impressive than Wichita State's 91-74 win at Davidson, moving the Shockers to 24-4 on the season. Joe Ragland scored 30 points and grabbed seven rebounds to lead the way for Wichita State, who shot a scalding 63.5% from the field. Jake Cohen led the Wildcats, who are the prohibitive favorite to win the SoCon's automatic bid, with 25 points.

2. The story of Florida State's 76-62 win at NC State should be the Seminoles limiting the Wolfpack to 29.3% shooting from the field, but thanks to the actions of official Karl Hess that's not the case. Hess thought it necessary to throw Wolfpack legends Tom Gugliotta and Chris Corchiani out of the RBC Center, and according to those in the area it was a blatant overreaction. Much has been made about officials being overworked, but the real problem is that some act as if the fans show up to watch them. This really needs to be dealt with.

3. Things have gotten even worse for Connecticut and Illinois as both teams were on the receiving end of whippings on Saturday afternoon. The Huskies fell to #13 Marquette 79-64 thanks to 53 combined points from Jae Crowder (29 points, 12 rebounds) and Darius Johnson-Odom (24 points). But the bigger issue was point guard Shabazz Napier calling out his teammates following the game. The Huskies don't have the look of a team capable of turning things around and neither does Illinois, who was whipped at Nebraska. In the 80-57 loss the Fighting Illini saw Bo Spencer score 27 points and Nebraska shoot 55.3% from the field.

4. Saint Mary's may have lost but they actually gained a game in the loss column with regards to the WCC race. Rashad Green's jumper with 3.3 seconds remaining pushed San Francisco past #24 Gonzaga by the final score of 66-65. Gonzaga's now tied with BYU for second place at 11-3 with Saint Mary's a game ahead at 12-2 with all three having two games remaining, and the Bulldogs and Cougars meet in Spokane on Thursday night.

5. One way to make earning an NCAA berth tougher than it should be is to lose games you're supposed to win, which is exactly what #23 Mississippi State did. The Bulldogs struggled offensively, shooting 35.2% from the field and 5-for-22 from three in a 65-55 loss at Auburn. Frankie Sullivan led the Tigers with 16 points and Kenny Gabriel added 15 and nine boards.

6. Drexel went on the road and beat Cleveland State 69-49, and while the Vikings are a far different team without D'Aundray Brown this was an impressive result for the Dragons. Drexel has now won 15 in a row, and it may be time to consider where Bruiser Flint's team stacks up against last year's George Mason squad. The Patriots won 16 in a row but would eventually need an at-large bid (8-seed), and a quick look at the numbers (see the "Rankings" area) for both teams shows how difficult it could be for the CAA to get two bids.

7. Both Memphis and Southern Miss dropped games they weren't expected to, meaning that not only do the two teams remain tied for first in Conference USA but they also move closer to the pack. UTEP was able to come back and beat Memphis 60-58 for their first road win of the season, and Houston knocked off Southern Miss 73-71 as Jonathon Simmons led the Cougars with 28 points and eight rebounds. Conference USA needed Southern Miss and Memphis to separate in order to feel good about two bids, and that may not happen at this rate.

8. The streak will live for another year as Dayton was once again unable to win at Xavier, losing 86-83 in overtime at the Cintas Center. The Flyers, who were led by Kevin Dillard's 20 points and six assists, haven't beaten the Musketeers in Cincinnati since 1981. Tu Holloway (32 points, six rebounds, five assists) and Mark Lyons (20 points, three rebounds) led the way for the Musketeers, who remain in the A-10 race with the win.

9. The Patriot League race has become much tighter than expected with two games remaining. While both American (74-50 win at Army) and Lehigh (72-53 win over Lafayette) took care of business they received the help they needed from Holy Cross, who beat first-place Bucknell 54-52 despite 20 points and ten rebounds from Mike Muscala. The Bison are now just a game up on the Eagles and Mountain Hawks, and with two to go there's always the chance that Bucknell could drop all the way down to the 3rd seed. Bucknell and American meet in D.C. on Thursday night.

10. Not only did Belmont take care of what they needed to do in beating East Tennessee State 80-58 but they also received help in the form of Jacksonville's 81-75 win over Mercer. This gives the Bruins a one-game lead over the Bears in the Atlantic Sun with three to go, and the regular season finale is a battle between the two at Mercer (the Bears also host the conference tournament).

11. Similar to the battle between Arizona and Washington, the second meeting of the season between Wyoming and Colorado State is a contest that we'll still have some work to do when it comes to figuring out the meaning. Behind Greg Smith (14 points, eight rebounds) and a defense that limited the Cowboys to 38.6% shooting, the Rams picked up a much-needed split of the season series with a 54-46 win (Wyoming won the first meeting in Laramie by 19). Both teams have plenty of work to do (despite solid computer numbers for CSU) but this is a good step for the Rams.

12. Not only did Northwestern pick up a much-needed win (64-53 over Minnesota) but John Shurna became the school's all-time leading scorer. The senior was all over the stat sheet for the Wildcats, finishing with 18 points, five rebounds, five assists, four steals and three blocked shots. At 6-8 in league play Northwestern has opportunities remaining as they host Michigan and Ohio State, while the remaining road games are Penn State and Iowa.

13. Harvard once again took care of Yale, this time by the final score of 66-51, to remain alone in first place in the Ivy League. Brandyn Curry scored 18 points and Keith Wright ten as the Crimson, who host Princeton and Penn next week, soundly defeated the Bulldogs for the second time this season despite 22 and 11 from Greg Magnano. A sweep of next weekend would guarantee Tommy Amaker's bunch at least a share of the Ivy crown.

14. The nation's second-longest win streak came to an end on Saturday night as Weber State edged out UT-Arlington 72-70 in Ogden. The Mavericks, who had won 16 in a row, limited the nation's leading scorer (Damian Lillard) to 17 points but Scott Bamforth scored 16 of his 19 in the second half to propel the Wildcats to the victory.

15. Two teams in need of wins took losses on the road Saturday as Texas fell 90-78 to Oklahoma State and Seton Hall dropped a 62-57 decision at Cincinnati. Safe to say that both the Longhorns and Pirates have work to do if they're to go dancing, but the good news for both is that their leagues will provide the opportunities needed to strengthen their case.

Five Notable Performances

1. F Drew Gordon (New Mexico)
27 points and 20 rebounds in the Lobos' 65-45 win over #11 UNLV.

2. G Keiton Page (Oklahoma State)
40 points (20-20 FT) in the Cowboys' 90-78 win over Texas.

3. F/C Andrew Nicholson (St. Bonaventure)
32 points, 13 rebounds and three blocked shots in the Bonnies' 81-61 win over Rhode Island.

4. F Doug McDermott (Creighton)
36 points and 11 rebounds in the Bluejays' 81-79 win over Long Beach State.

5. G Louie Krogman (South Dakota)
37 points, six assists and four steals in the Coyotes' 93-92 loss to Texas State.

Lobos Take Win and Driver's Seat: Wednesday's Recap

Raphielle Johnson — Thu, 16 Feb 2012 06:49:39 -0800

Wednesday night's game between New Mexico and San Diego State was a big one for the visitors, as Steve Alford's team didn't own a single win over a Top 25 team. But also on the line was sole possession of first place in the Mountain West after UNLV fell at TCU on Tuesday night.

And the team many expected to win the conference before the season began, New Mexico, took control of the wheel ahead of their matchup with the Runnin' Rebels with a 77-67 win at Viejas Arena. Kendall Williams posted his highest point total since January 7th against North Dakota, scoring a game-high 21 points, and Drew Gordon was a handful inside as he finished with 17 points and 17 rebounds.

"I think Kendall Williams was probably the most important guy, but Drew Gordon was very good with the way he played," remarked SDSU head coach Steve Fisher in his postgame radio interview. "They have guys that stepped up. Whether it was guys that started or coming off the bench, they made it difficult for us."

Speaking of those reserves, the New Mexico bench outscored San Diego State's reserves 33-12 with guard Jamal Fenton providing 15 of those points. The decision-making of both he and Hugh Greenwood was going to be an important aspect of the game to keep track of, and they were solid in combining for just two turnovers (both by Greenwood).

Fenton's scoring was also welcome due to the fact that leading scorer Tony Snell was held scoreless, as he missed all four of his shots from the field. But the Lobos were able to make up for that due to their reserves, which also included Chase Adams scoring eight points in seven minutes of action.

Jamaal Franklin led the Aztecs with 16 points and ten rebounds and Tim Shelton (13 points) and James Rahon (11) also reached double figures, but Chase Tapley couldn't get going as he shot 3-for-11 from the field. As a team SDSU made just three off their fourteen three-point attempts, and when compared to the Lobos' 10-for-19 night that's a tough mountain to climb.

Next up for New Mexico is a home game against UNLV on Saturday, and a win at The Pit would make all three teams 2-2 against each other. That would in turn place more emphasis on how each of the three does against the non-contenders, and New Mexico has yet to drop one of those games. To say the least Saturday offers UNM a golden opportunity to take full control of the Mountain West race.

Other Notable Happenings

1. Illinois drops a close one at home to Purdue, and it may be approacing "that time" in Champaign.
From the orange blazer donned by head coach Bruce Weber to the fact that Illinois had lost five of their last six games, Wednesday's game against Purdue dripped of desperation for the Fighting Illini. But that still wouldn't be enough for Illinois, who fell at home 67-62, dropping their sixth game out of the last seven. While the season still has games left to be played Illinois doesn't have the look of a team poised to turn things around, meaning that the chances of returning to the Big Dance are dwindling away. And in the postgame press conference the words coming from the head coach didn't sound like those of a man confident that his guys could turn things around.

"Instead of creating toughness and developing a team, I coached not to lose this year. That's really sad." To be fair Weber did also say that "it's never too late" to turn things around, and while that is the case one has to wonder if this group has the ability not just physically but mentally to do so. Illinois shot 3-for-21 from beyond the arc against Purdue, and while that didn't reach the depths of SMU's shooting (3-for-29 in a 28-point outing for their entire team) with a 7-footer like Meyers Leonard (4-7 FG, nine points, 12 rebounds) inside that's inexcusable. Until this group executes better offensively they'll continue to struggle, and the longer that happens the louder the "job security" talk gets.

2. Max Good's road warriors tighten up the WCC race with a win at #16 Saint Mary's.
Loyola Marymount may have some mystifying losses to their credit this season, there's little doubt that the Lions are the best road team in the WCC. LMU spoiled "Senior Night" for Saint Mary's as they beat the Gaels 75-60, moving to 7-1 in league road games this season. Drew Viney (17 points) and Anthony Ireland (16 points, seven assists) led the way and Jarred DuBois added 15 off the bench for LMU, who won despite allowing the Gaels to grab 16 offensive rebounds. Rob Jones led the way for SMC with 25 points and 15 rebounds but Matthew Dellavedova was quiet (ten points, six assists) and Stephen Holt was lost for the game early in the second half with a knee injury.

What this result does is drop Saint Mary's into a tie for first place with Gonzaga in the loss column, which more than opens up the possibility of the Bulldogs winning at least a share of their 12th consecutive WCC regular season title. And of course Mark Few's team is the only one to have beaten Loyola Marymount at home, as they beat the Lions 78-59 in Spokane last week. So even with the discussion of NCAA bids stopping at three (adding BYU into the discussion), LMU has the look of a team that can get hot in Las Vegas and leave with the automatic bid.

3. Miami lets a great opportunity slip away as North Carolina grabs 24 offensive rebounds in the win.
North Carolina shot just 5-for-18 from beyond the arc, and while Miami wasn't a great deal better at 8-for-23 the Hurricanes had every opportunity to take advantage of that lack of accuracy. But they couldn't, and UNC's work on the offensive glass was the big reason why. The Tar Heels grabbed 24 offensive rebounds, which resulted in 23 second chance points in their 73-64 victory. North Carolina was also a plus-10 in points from the foul line, as they shot 16-for-23 from the charity stripe (Miami: 6-for-9). Harrison Barnes scored 23 points and grabbed six rebounds and John Henson added a double-double with 14 and 11 (with three blocks) to keep the Heels tied atop the ACC in the loss column (9-2; Duke and Florida State are both 8-2). Durand Scott led four Hurricanes in double figures with 15 points but they were unable to add another big win to their resume, and rebounding was the big reason why.

Quick Hitters

1. While beating Villanova isn't a "marquee" win by any stretch of the imagination, the fact that USF was able to take care of business is a good sign for the Bulls as they head into the stretch run. In the 65-51 win over the Wildcats, Victor Rudd Jr. scored 14 points and Anthony Collins added ten points and seven assists as USF moved to 9-4 in Big East play. The Bulls need to find a resume-building victory at some point, but to say the least this season is progress for a program that taken more than its fair share of lumps during their time in the conference.

2. In a stunning result in the MAAC, Marist beat Loyola (MD) 72-54 in Poughkeepsie as Adam Kemp finished two blocks short of a triple-double (17 points, 11 rebounds and eight blocks) and three other starters scored in double figures. The Red Foxes' win also gives Iona, who won 75-62 at Rider, sole possession of first place with two games remaining on the league slate.

3. Warren Niles scored 24 points and Michael Craion 18 to help lead Oral Roberts past IPFW 75-71 in Fort Wayne, clinching the Summit League regular season crown for the Golden Eagles. ORU has won 17 of their last 18 games and will host Akron as part of the Sears BracketBusters event, and they're going to be a tough out in the conference tournament in a couple of weeks.

4. While New Mexico may have locked up a third bid for the Mountain West, thanks to both Wyoming and Colorado State that may be all the league gets come Selection Sunday. Michael Lyons knocked down six three-pointers and scored 24 points to lead Air Force past the Cowboys 58-53 in Laramie. And in Boise it was Derrick Marks who went the length of the court to score the game-winning bucket with under a second remaining to push Boise State past CSU 70-69. Given their tenuous statuses going into Wednesday, Wyoming and Colorado State may have seen their bubbles burst with these defeats.

5. Back in 2004-05 Savannah State went 0-28, and there were few who thought it possible that the Tigers would one day sit in first place in the MEAC. That day has come thanks to Delaware State's 73-63 overtime win at Norfolk State, with Tahj Tate's 25 points leading the victors. Brandon Wheeless scored 17 points to lead Norfolk State (10-3), who just like DSU (9-3) is a game behind Savannah State (9-2) in the loss column but the Tigers have two games in hand on the Spartans.

6. Neil Watson's game-tying three with less than a second remaining got Southern Miss to overtime in a key Conference USA battle with Tulsa, a game the Golden Eagles went on to win 77-69 to remain tied with Memphis atop the conference standings. Jonathan Mills scored a career-high 25 points and grabbed ten rebounds to lead Southern Miss, whose win also establishes two games of separation between themselves and Memphis and the rest of C-USA.

7. LaMarcus Reed III scored 18 points to help lead UT-Arlington back from a 15-point deficit in beating Stephen F. Austin 51-47 to remain undefeated in Southland play at 12-0. The Mavericks will take a 16-game win streak into Saturday's Sears BracketBusters matchup at Weber State, and with their three-game lead in the loss column UTA is well on their way to the Southland regular season crown.

8. Garrett Stutz knocked down all four of his three-point attempts and finished with 21 points and ten rebounds to lead #24 Wichita State past Missouri State 73-58 to clinch at least a share of the Missouri Valley crown. The Shockers have now won 13 of their last 14 games, and the defeat was of the triple-overtime variety at Drake. Gregg Marshall's team seems to be clicking just as the games become magnified in importance, which is a good thing.

9. Northwestern let a resume-building opportunity slip away as they fell 71-66 at #20 Indiana. While the win gives the Hoosiers their first 20-win season of the Tom Crean era, the visiting Wildcats dropped to 15-10 overall and 5-8 in Big Ten play. John Shurna led Northwestern with 29 points and Frew Crawford added 18, but no other Wildcat was able to reach double figures. Cody Zeller led three Indiana starters in double figures with 23 points and seven rebounds.

Three Notable Performances

1. G Darrion Pellum (Hampton)
33 points, six steals and five rebounds in the Pirates' 82-62 win over Maryland-Eastern Shore.

2. G Nate Wolters (South Dakota State)
30 points (14-18 FG), five assists and three steals in the Jackrabbits' 80-57 win over North Dakota State.

3. G Kendall Williams and F Drew Gordon (New Mexico)
Williams scored 21 points (7-10 FG) and grabbed four rebounds while Gordon finished with 17 points and 17 rebounds in the Lobos' 77-67 win at #15 San Diego State.

Illinois vs Purdue: Prediction & Fan Poll

Greg Mengelt — Wed, 15 Feb 2012 06:37:29 -0800

PURDUE (16-9, 6-6 Big Ten) AT ILLINOIS (16-9, 5-7 Big Ten)

Time: 8:30 p.m. (7:30 p.m. Central)

TV: Big Ten Network

Location: Assembly Hall in Champaign, Ill.

RPI Ratings

Purdue 53 (No. 8 Big Ten)

Illinois 38 (No. 6 Big Ten)

Line: Illinois -2½ (O/U 134)

Purdue Players to Watch: F Robbie Hummel, 6-8 Sr. (15.6 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 1.3 bpg); G Lewis Jackson, 5-9 Sr. (9.8 ppg, 4.1 apg, 1.2 spg); F D.J. Byrd, 6-5 Jr. (7.8 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 42.4% 3s). Byrd has scored 71 points in his last four games, including 24 in last Tuesday’s loss to Ohio State and 20 in Sunday’s 87-77 win over Northwestern, after scoring in double-figures just five in Purdue’s first 21 games.

Illinois Players to Watch: G Brandon Paul, 6-4 Jr. (15.2 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 3.2 apg); C Meyers Leonard, 7-1 So. (13.2 ppg, 8 rpg, 2.1 bpg); G Joseph Bertrand, 6-5 So. (6.6 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 55.9% FG). After 21 points in Sunday’s 70-61 loss to Michigan, Paul is 32 points shy of 1,000 for his career. He has scored in double-figures in 14 straight games, including a 43-point performance in the Illini’s 79-74 win over then-No. 5 Ohio State on Jan. 10.

Storylines: This game has serious NCAA implications. Both teams are in the middle of the Big Ten pack and appear to be in the field as of today, but wins will be tough to come by the rest of the way for both.

Keys: Purdue has won the last six meetings against the Illini, including a 75-60 victory at Mackey Arena on Dec. 31. In the win, the Boilermakers outscored Illinois 49-36 in the second half behind 56.8 percent shooting. Purdue’s Matt Painter and Illinois’s Bruce Weber were assistant coaches together under Gene Keady. Painter is 9-4 in 13 meetings against Weber. The Boilers have the nation’s third best assist-to-turnover ratio at 1.52-to-1 and the seventh-best turnover margin at plus-4.9. Purdue forces 13.7 turnovers per game. Jackson leads the Big Ten with a 3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Illinois has been involved in 12 games this season that have been decided by five points or less or that win into overtime, including eight of their last 10 games. They are 8-4 in games decided by five points are fewer. Illinois out-rebounds its opponents by 2.4 boards per game, while the Boilermakers are one of only three Big Ten teams with a negative rebounding margin at minus-1. The Illini are third in the Big Ten with 4.4 blocked shots per game, led by Leonard’s 2.1, which leads the conference. The Boilermakers are 22-for-42 from 3-point range in its last two games, including 6-for-10 from Ryne Smith and 10-for-17 from Byrd. Byrd has made 13 of his last 24 3-point attempts. The Illini are 12-3 at home this season but were beaten 74-70 by Northwestern in their last game at Assembly Hall. Purdue is 3-4 in true road games this season, including an 87-84 loss at Ohio State in its last road game.

The Bottom Line: Purdue has played well in its last couple of games and the Illini are struggling. Byrd is the key. If he’s shooting like he has been, it opens things for Hummel, Jackson and Smith.

The Pick: Purdue 73, Illinois 67

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 65-40

#15 San Diego State vs. New Mexico: Wednesday's Preview

Raphielle Johnson — Tue, 14 Feb 2012 21:29:00 -0800

With Selection Sunday rapidly approaching the chances left for teams to improve their tournament resumes are dwindling, which makes this week vitally important to Steve Alford's New Mexico (20-4, 6-2) Lobos. While the have an impressive record there aren't a lot of marquee wins to their credit, but they've got a shot at one on the road as they visit #15 San Diego State (20-4, 6-2). What's also on the line this week: the driver's seat in the Mountain West race, as UNM has lost to both SDSU and UNLV while those two split their two meetings.

The first meeting (at The Pit) looked to be headed in the direction of the home team at the outset as New Mexico scored the first ten points of the game. But Steve Fisher's Aztecs didn't wilt in front of the hostile crowd, outscoring the Lobos by 15 points the rest of the way in a 75-70 victory. The key for the Lobos will be the play of guard Kendall Williams (12.2 ppg, 4.3 apg) and forward Drew Gordon (11.9 ppg, 10.5 rpg), two players expected to rank among the best in the Mountain West before the season began.

Both got off to slow starts to the season but have been two key reasons why the Lobos haven't lost to any other teams in league play. Gordon can be a handful in the paint, which should concern SDSU after the ease with which UNLV's Brice Massamba was able to establish position at times on Saturday afternoon. Tim Shelton is one of the better defenders in the Mountain West but neither he nor Garrett Green or DeShawn Stephens has the build to keep a player like Gordon off the glass without help.

The situation on the perimeter is a different story however, as San Diego State has one of the best backcourts on the west coast. Chase Tapley (16.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg) is the leading scorer for the Aztecs and their four main guards all average at least 9.5 points per game. Jamaal Franklin (16.0 ppg, 7.3 rpg) is their leading rebounder, and his ability to get to the rim offensively makes Franklin a tough matchup for anyone. Xavier Thames (10.2 ppg, 4.7 apg) leads the team in assists and makes sound decisions when running the show while veteran James Rahon (9.5 ppg) has been an important glue guy who can also knock down open shots when needed.

UNM counters on the perimeter with a deep corps in addition to Williams, led by leading scorer Tony Snell. Snell (12.3 ppg, 3.0 rpg), who was a high school teammate of former SDSU great Kawhi Leonard, is a very good shooter who knocks down 49% of his shots from the field and 42.7% from three. In addition to those two there's the point guard tandem consisting of freshman Hugh Greenwood and sophomore Jamal Fenton, who combine to average 5.3 assists per game. The key for Fenton will be his decision-making, which can be an issue at times despite the fact that he averages just 1.3 turnovers per game.

Where will this game be won? Possibly on the glass as the Lobos manage to corral 37.3% of their missed shots on the season. That all leads back to Gordon, who's currently averaging 2.9 offensive rebounds per game. If he can control the boards on both ends and the young guard (Fenton and Greenwood) don't struggle with either SDSU's capable defenders or "The Show", New Mexico has a shot at leaving Montezuma Mesa with a much-needed win and sole possession of first place. San Diego State is 15-1 at home for a reason however, so accomplishing those tasks is far easier said than done.

The Top 25 features two other contests in which the unranked team could use a resume-building victory, beginning with Northwestern visiting #20 Indiana. Bill Carmody's Wildcats fell at Purdue on Sunday night so a win in Bloomington would definitely help them out from an NCAA tournament standpoint. Drew Crawford and John Shurna rank among the best scoring tandems in the country but the play of Reggie Hearn could prove critical down the stretch. The biggest question for Northwestern is whether or not they have an answer for Cody Zeller inside. Combining a hot Zeller with the Hoosiers' capable perimeter shooters would spell doom for many teams much less Northwestern.

Also in the Big Ten, Purdue visits Illinois in a game the Illini desperately need at this point. Bruce Weber's team has been struggling mightily of late, and part of the reason could be the health of point guard Sam Maniscalco. Without the Bradley transfer Illinois really doesn't have another credible option to get the offense going, and in turn key figures such as Brandon Paul and Meyers Leonard haven't been as good as they can be. Matt Painter's club is looking to build on their win over Northwestern, and with Kelsey Barlow and D.J. Byrd coming off of good performances maybe the Boilermakers can go on a run down the stretch.

Miami, a team that many did not think would be able to work their way into a "bubble" situation, is right there with a shot at their second win over a Top 10 team as they host #7 North Carolina. This game should be played at a pace more comfortable for the Tar Heels than Saturday's win over Virginia was, and for the Hurricanes that means veteran guards Malcolm Grant and Durand Scott need to make sound decisions alongside freshman Shane Larkin. But the battle in the paint will prove to be worth the cost of admission alone, as Miami's Reggie Johnson and Kenny Kadji have the ability to make things difficult on John Henson and Tyler Zeller.

In the Atlantic 10, Temple hits the road to take on St. Bonaventure and the Owls better be careful in Olean. The Bonnies have a first-round draft pick in the middle in senior center Andrew Nicholson, but truth be told this trip would be even more treacherous if Micheal Eric weren't back in the rotation for the Owls. The key for Bona will be how they match up with Temple's perimeter stars, with Khalif Wyatt and Ramone Moore rolling and Juan Fernandez also more than capable of making things happen.

USC looks for some revenge in the second meeting with city rival UCLA but that's going to be tough given the many injuries the Trojans have had to deal with this season. But in Maurice Jones, USC has a tough, skilled guard who should be on one of the All Pac-12 teams at the end of the season. Without the Saginaw, Michigan native who knows how many games Kevin O'Neil's team would have found a way to win. And back in the Mountain West both Wyoming and Colorado State have games they can't afford to lose if they're to have any shot of going dancing. The Pokes host Air Force, who just fired they coach last week, while CSU heads north to take on Boise State.

Top 25 Games
9:00 PM Oklahoma State at (3) Missouri (ESPN3)
8:00 PM (7) North Carolina at Miami (FL) (ESPN)
8:00 PM (14) Murray State at Southeast Missouri State (ESPN3)
10:15 PM New Mexico at (15) San Diego State (CBS CN)
10:30 PM Loyola Marymount at (16) Saint Mary's
6:30 PM Northwestern at (20) Indiana (BTN)
7:00 PM Rutgers at (25) Notre Dame (ESPNU)

NCAA Division I Games
7:00 PM DePaul at Connecticut (ESPN3)
7:00 PM Maine at Hartford (ESPN3)
7:00 PM Villanova at South Florida (ESPN3)
7:00 PM South Dakota at IUPUI
7:00 PM New Hampshire at Boston University
7:00 PM Bowling Green at Ohio
7:00 PM Saint Joseph's at Rhode Island
7:00 PM Canisius at Niagara
7:00 PM Holy Cross at Lafayette
7:00 PM Vermont at Albany
7:00 PM Miami (OH) at Akron
7:00 PM Chattanooga at Appalachian State
7:00 PM Toledo at Ball State
7:00 PM UMBC at Binghamton
7:00 PM Army at Colgate
7:00 PM Samford at Davidson
7:00 PM Charlotte at Dayton (FCS)
7:00 PM Fordham at Duquesne
7:00 PM Maryland-Eastern Shore at Hampton
7:00 PM Washington Adventist at Longwood
7:00 PM Loyola (MD) at Marist
7:00 PM Charleston at UNC Greensboro
7:00 PM Southern Utah at Oakland
7:00 PM Iona at Rider (ESPN3)
7:00 PM Georgia at South Carolina (ESPN3)
7:00 PM Elon at Wofford
7:00 PM Detroit at Wright State
7:00 PM Oral Roberts at IPFW
7:30 PM Navy at American
7:30 PM Georgia Tech at Wake Forest (ESPN3)
7:30 PM St. Peter's at Fairfield
7:30 PM Delaware State at Norfolk State
8:00 PM Drake at Bradley (ESPN3)
8:00 PM Richmond at Saint Louis
8:00 PM Temple at St. Bonaventure
8:00 PM Texas A&M-CC at Texas State
8:00 PM Morehead State at Austin Peay
8:00 PM SIU-Edwardsville at Eastern Illinois
8:00 PM Southeastern Louisiana at Lamar
8:00 PM UTSA at McNeese State
8:00 PM Western Michigan at Northern Illinois
8:00 PM Central Arkansas at Sam Houston State
8:00 PM UAB at SMU
8:00 PM North Dakota State at South Dakota State
8:00 PM Tulsa at Southern Miss
8:00 PM Texas-Arlington at Stephen F. Austin
8:00 PM Arkansas at Tennessee (ESPN3)
8:00 PM Eastern Kentucky at Tennessee Tech
8:00 PM Memphis at Tulane
8:00 PM UMKC at Western Illinois
8:00 PM Air Force at Wyoming (The Mtn.)
8:05 PM Northern Iowa at Evansville
8:05 PM Missouri State at Wichita State (ESPN3)
8:30 PM Purdue at Illinois (BTN)
9:00 PM Weber State at Montana State
9:00 PM Providence at Cincinnati (ESPNU)
9:05 PM Northern Colorado at Eastern Washington
10:00 PM Cal State Fullerton at UC Riverside
10:00 PM Colorado State at Boise State (The Mtn.)
10:00 PM UC Santa Barbara at UC Irvine
10:00 PM Cal Poly at Cal State Northridge
10:05 PM Sacramento State at Portland State
10:30 PM USC at UCLA (FSN PT)

Michigan vs Illinois: Prediction & Fan Poll

Greg Mengelt — Sat, 11 Feb 2012 20:08:20 -0800

ILLINOIS (16-8, 5-6 Big Ten) AT NO. 25 MICHIGAN (18-7, 8-4 Big Ten)

Time: 1 p.m.

TV: CBS

Location: Crisler Arena in Ann Arbor, Mich.

RPI Ratings

Illinois 38 (No. 6 Big Ten)

Michigan 15 (No. 3 Big Ten)

Line: Michigan -6.5 (119 o/u)

Illinois Players to Watch: C Meyers Leonard, 7-1 So. (13.5 ppg, 7. rpg, 58.7% FG); G Brandon Paul, 6-4 Jr. (15.1 ppg, 5 rpg, 3.1 apg); G D.J. Richardson, 6-3 Jr. (12.2 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 2 apg). After scoring 17 points on 7-of-10 from the field and three rebounds in Thursday’s 84-71 loss at Indiana, Leonard ranks third in the Big Ten in field goal percentage and rebounds and is 16^th in scoring.

Michigan Players to Watch: G Tim Hardaway Jr., 6-6 So. (14.3 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 2.5 apg); G Trey Burke, 5-11 Fr. (14 ppg, 4.9 apg, 3.6 rpg); F Zack Novak, 6-4 Sr. (9.6 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 50.9% FG). Novak surpassed 1,000 career points with a 14-point performance in Wednesday’s 62-46 win over Nebraska.

Storylines: Michigan remains a game-and-a-half behind Big Ten-leading Ohio State, despite three losses in its last seven league games. Overall, the Wolverines have split their last eight games, alternating wins and losses. Once 4-1 in the conference and riding high after a win over then-No. 5 Ohio State, Illinois’ NCAA Tournament bid is now in jeopardy after losing five of its last six, including an 84-71 loss at Indiana on Thursday.

Key Stats: Both teams play stingy defense. The Wolverines are fourth in the Big Ten, allowing 60.4 points per game, and Illinois is fifth at 62.3. Illinois allows its opponents to shoot just 41.3 percent from the field and 36.3 percent from the 3-point line, while Michigan gives up 42.4 from the floor and 34.8 from deep. The Illini should have a significant advantage on the glass. They out-rebound opponents by 2.3 boards per game. Michigan has just two more rebounds than its opponents this season. The Wolverines force two more turnovers per game than they commit, while Illinois is even on the season. Michigan is second in the Big Ten with 8.2 3-pointers made per game, but they are eighth in the league in 3-point percentage at 34.9. The Illini shoot 32.2 percent from behind the arc, which is 11^th in the Big Ten. Michigan, which has played only two home games since Jan. 17, is 13-0 at Crisler Arena this season. Illinois is 2-4 in true road games having lost its last three away from home.

The Bottom Line: This game will be competitive for most of the afternoon with the Wolverines pulling away late for a comfortable win.

The Pick: Michigan 68, Illinois 61