Indiana

Bracketology: Saturday Night NCAA Tournament Projection

Shawn Siegel — Sat, 16 Mar 2013 23:07:58 -0400

The latest Bracketology projection as of 11:00 PM, March 16th. One more day until Selection Sunday.

Why Pay Attention to What I Have to Say: Collegehoops.net's projections have consistently proven to be the best in the business. Over the last 5 years, Shawn Siegel is one of the Top 5 Bracketologists according to the Bracket Project. This ranking includes the likes of Joe Lunardi, Gary Parrish, Jerry Palm, and Andy Glockner.. none of whom come close.

As always, the field below is a prediction of what the committee would do as things stand today, not what they should do. This is done by taking into account standings, polls, computer rankings, and the committee's historical biases. Check out the follow up Bubble Watch for updates about teams on the NCAA Tournament Bubble, and NITology for a ranking of the best of the rest.

Notes:

Arrows indicate how many seeds a team has moved up or down since the previous update. Conference Champ.

ONE

Gonzaga 7

Louisville 3

Duke 1

Kansas 5

TWO

Indiana 10

New Mexico 2

Georgetown 9

Miami 4

THREE

Ohio St 11

Michigan St 8

Florida 6

Marquette 13

FOUR

Michigan 18

Syracuse 12

Kansas St 16

Oklahoma St 27

FIVE

UCLA 23

Saint Louis 22

Arizona 15

Wisconsin 28

SIX

Memphis 14

Pittsburgh 42

Creighton 26

North Carolina 17

SEVEN

Butler 21

VCU 25

Notre Dame 36

Colorado St 19

EIGHT

UNLV 24

Missouri 35

North Carolina St 30

Illinois 40

NINE

Oregon 49

San Diego St 32

Saint Mary's 33

Iowa St 44

TEN

Temple 41

Oklahoma 40

Villanova 52

Cincinnati 48

ELEVEN

Wichita St 37

Minnesota 34

Belmont 20

Ole Miss 50

TWELVE

Boise St 43

Akron 46

Colorado 38 / Tennessee 59

La Salle 45 / UCONN 47 California 53

THIRTEEN + 2

Bucknell 51

South Dakota St 63

New Mexico St 57

Valparaiso 58

FOURTEEN

Davidson 61

Montana 83

Florida Gulf Coast 93

Harvard 94

FIFTEEN

Northwestern St 96

Iona 97

Pacific 105

Western Kentucky 150

SIXTEEN + 2

Albany 128

Long Island 175

James Madison 182 / Liberty 288

Southern 181 / North Carolina A&T 211

Last In: California, Tennessee, La Salle, Colorado

First Out: Maryland 66, Middle Tennessee 31, Kentucky 56, Southern Miss 29

College Basketball Top 50: Indiana Ends Regular Season #1

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 10 Mar 2013 20:24:48 -0400

Collegehoops.net's Top 50 Power Ranking is your weekly dive into the national college basketball scene. The CHN Top 50 is brought to you before all the other polls late Sunday night. Arrows represent notable moves. (Also: Check out the weekly Non-BCS Top 25 Ranking.)

Top 50 Ranking: March 10th

by Shawn Siegel: Collegehoops.net Editor

	Team	Record	Last
1	Indiana	26-5*	1
2	Gonzaga	30-2	2
3	Duke	27-4	3
4	Louisville	26-5	6
5	Michigan State	24-7	11
6	Miami	24-6*	4
7	Michigan	25-6*	5
8	Kansas	26-5*	7
9	Florida	24-6*	8
10	New Mexico	26-5*	9
11	Georgetown	24-5*	10
12	Ohio State	23-7	13
13	Marquette	23-7	15
14	Kansas St	25-6*	12
15	Oklahoma St	23-7*	14
16	Arizona	24-6	16
17	Pittsburgh	24-7	21
18	Syracuse	23-8*	17
19	Colorado St	24-7	29
20	VCU	24-7*	18
21	Creighton	27-7	32
22	Saint Louis	24-6*	23
23	Memphis	27-4	26
24	Butler	24-7	28
25	Notre Dame	23-8*	19
26	Wisconsin	21-10*	20
27	Missouri	22-9*	22
28	UNLV	23-8*	27
29	North Carolina	22-9*	30
30	St. Mary's	27-5	36
31	NC State	22-9*	31
32	Temple	23-8	40
33	Wichita St	26-8*	34
34	Belmont	26-6	43
35	UCLA	23-8*	35
36	Middle Tennessee	28-5*	24
37	Minnesota	20-11**	25
38	San Diego St	21-9*	38
39	UCONN	20-10*	41
40	Kentucky	21-10*	42
41	Ole Miss	23-8	47
42	Cincinnati	21-10*	39
43	Oregon	23-8**	33
44	Illinois	21-11**	37
45	La Salle	21-8*	45
46	Bucknell	27-5	49
47	Iowa St	21-10	NA(+5)
48	Villanova	19-12	NA
49	Virginia	21-10*	50
50	California	20-10*	46

* = losses this week

last = last week's ranking

Next Five: Akron (24-6*), Boise St (21-9*), Iowa (20-11), Colorado (20-10*), Oklahoma (20-10*)

Top 50 Drop Outs (that haven't returned)

			Week
	Louisiana Tech		17
	Akron		17
	Maryland		16
	Baylor		15
	Boise St		14
	BYU		13
	Wyoming		13
	Iowa		11
	Colorado		10
	Murray St		9
	Virginia Tech		7
	Xavier		6
	Alabama		6
	St. Joseph's		5
	Ohio		5
	Santa Clara		3
	Tennessee		3
	Northwestern		3
	Florida State		3
	Texas		2
	Northern Iowa		2
	South Alabama		2

week = week dropped out of Top 50

During the season, don't forget to check out the CHN Top 50 Power Ranking every Sunday night!

For more depth, check out the weekly the Non-BCS Top 25 ranking.

You can also revisit the Top 50 archive and view this week's AP Top 25.

2012-13 Top 50 Ranking: November 19

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 19 Nov 2012 00:09:05 -0500

Top 50 Ranking: November 19th

by Shawn Siegel: Collegehoops.net Editor

	Team	Record	Last
1	Indiana	3-0	x
2	Michigan	3-0	x
3	Louisville	3-0	x
4	Duke	3-0	x
5	Syracuse	2-0	x
6	Ohio State	3-0	x
7	Florida	3-0	x
8	Kentucky	2-1*	x
9	North Carolina	3-0	x
10	UCLA	3-0	x
11	Creighton	3-0	x
12	Gonzaga	3-0	x
13	Arizona	2-0	x
14	Memphis	2-0	x
15	UNLV	2-0	x
16	Missouri	3-0	x
17	Michigan State	2-1	x
18	Kansas	2-1*	x
19	Colorado	4-0	x
20	Oklahoma St	4-0	x
21	UCONN	3-0	x
22	Cincinnati	3-0	x
23	Baylor	4-1*	x
24	San Diego St	2-1	x
25	NC State	3-1*	x
26	Wisconsin	2-1*	x
27	Minnesota	4-0	x
28	Notre Dame	3-1*	x
29	Kansas St	4-0	x
30	St. Mary's	3-0	x
31	Pittsburgh	4-0	x
32	Texas	2-0	x
33	New Mexico	3-0	x
34	Ohio	3-0	x
35	Alabama	4-0	x
36	Murray St	3-1*	x
37	Marquette	2-0	x
38	St. Joseph's	2-1*	x
39	Florida State	3-1	x
40	Northern Iowa	3-0	x
41	South Alabama	2-0	x
42	Tennessee	3-1*	x
43	Colorado St	2-0	x
44	Wichita St	4-0	x
45	Santa Clara	2-0	x
46	Saint Louis	1-1*	x
47	Iowa St	3-0	x
48	Temple	2-0	x
49	Belmont	3-0	x
50	VCU	2-1*	x

* = losses this week

last = last week's ranking

Next Five: Bucknell (5-0), Butler (1-1*), Oregon (3-0), Xavier (3-0), Illinois (3-0)

Top 50 Drop Outs

			Week
	Week One!

week = week dropped out of Top 50

During the season, don't forget to check out the CHN Top 50 Power Ranking every Sunday night!

For more depth, check out the weekly the Non-BCS Top 25 ranking.

You can also revisit the Top 50 archive and view this week's AP Top 25.

Friday's Sweet 16 Thoughts

Raphielle Johnson — Thu, 22 Mar 2012 15:58:56 -0400

Thursday's Sweet 16 Preview

When compared to Thursday's slate the four matchups on Friday may leave a little to be desired for the casual fan, with a double-digit seed playing in three of the four games. The lone exception is Kentucky/Indiana, who staged a classic back in December. Here are some thoughts on the four games to be played in Atlanta and St. Louis.

South Region (Atlanta)

(3) Baylor vs. (10) Xavier (7:15 PM, CBS)
When looking solely at the match-ups in the paint the battle between the Bears and Musketeer could look a lot like Baylor's 2010 Sweet 16 game against Saint Mary's. Scott Drew's team had the edge in terms of both depth and size as the overwhelmed Omar Samhan and company to advance to the Elite 8. Baylor enjoys an advantage inside against Xavier as well, with the biggest question being which Kenny Frease shows up: the one who struggled mightily against St. Bonaventure in the A-10 tournament title, or the one who played well in wins over Notre Dame and Lehigh last weekend?

With the Musketeers having two of the best guards remaining in the field in Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons, they're going to need Frease, Andre Walker and even Travis Taylor to hold their own in the paint. The word "warrior" fits Baylor's Quincy Acy perfectly, and in Perry Jones III and Quincy Miller the Bears have two likely lottery picks whenever they decide to head to the next level. Cory Jefferson and Anthony Jones also factor into the rotation, and if they can rebound at a solid rate (Baylor rebounds 38% of their misses) it could be a rough evening for the Xavier bigs.

Clearly Xavier's chances of winning lie on the shoulders of Holloway and Lyons, and if those two can control the flow of the game it's more than possible that they win. Both shoot 43% from the field with Lyons being the better three-point shooter, and they'll need to post solid assist-to-turnover ratios as well. Dezmine Wells, who sprained his ankle in the win over Lehigh, will also factor into the Musketeer attack. Baylor's guards have improved as the season has progressed, which should make for a fun match-up on the perimeter.

Brady Heslip, nicknamed the "Downtown Canadian", shot the ball extremely well in Albuquerque last week and it will be interesting to see if he can continue to do so with the sight lines of the Georgia Dome. Pierre Jackson is their best playmaker and A.J. Walton has increased his impact down the stretch. As a team Baylor has a slightly better A/T ratio (1.08 to Xavier's 1.04) but they turn the ball over on a higher percentage of their possessions (20.5% to 18.6%). If Frease and company can hold their own inside Xavier has a shot, making that the biggest key to tomorrow's game.

(1) Kentucky vs. (4) Indiana (9:45 PM, CBS)
Lost count of how many times ESPNU has shown the replay of their December 10th meeting in Bloomington this week? Can't blame you if you have, but with that being the Wildcats' lone regular season defeat (losing to Vanderbilt in the SEC tournament final) there's good reason why many would look back to that game for keys on how to beat Kentucky. But to be fair John Calipari's team is a different group now than they were back in December, with the play of Terrence Jones and Marquis Teague being two reasons why.

Teague, who played well in the regular season meeting between the two, has improved in regards to knowing when to establish his own offense and when to get Kentucky's other weapons involved. The Indianapolis native has a better A/T ratio (1.7) than any of Indiana's guards, and unless the Hoosiers give the responsibility of defending Teague to Victor Oladipo it remains to be seen who can slow him down. Jones' issue is similar to that of Baylor's Perry Jones III. When he's engaged and fully invested in the action, he's very difficult to slow down. And when paired with Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, that trio can wreak havoc when clicking on all cylinders.

Indiana was able to get Davis in foul trouble, limiting his impact on the game. Davis can clearly move his feet on the perimeter but it wouldn't be a surprise if the Hoosiers looked to run some early pick and roll action with Cody Zeller to not just take Davis away from the rim but to also see if they can pick up an early foul (or two) on the phenom. Zeller will be a key figure for the Hoosiers but so will Christian Watford, whose ability to play on the perimeter should match up well with Kidd-Gilchrist. The key for Watford will be to hit the glass; playing outside is fine but not at the expense of those "tough" plays in the paint.

Kentucky's the better team on the glass and they're the more efficient of the two both offensively and defensively as well. But IU won the first meeting by being the more efficient team in spite of 18 turnovers, a result of their ability to hold their own on the glass (30-30) and shooting 60% from three. Clearly if those things happen again Indiana will be in good position to win, but that's asking an awful lot of the Hoosiers. Jordan Hulls and Will Sheehey will be key figures on the perimeter, with Indiana needing to win the backcourt battle if they're to advance.

Midwest Region (St. Louis)

(1) North Carolina vs. (13) Ohio (7:47 PM, TBS)
North Carolina hasn't enjoyed the greatest of luck with wrists this month, first having John Henson injure his left wrist during the ACC tournament and then having Kendall Marshall break his right wrist against Creighton on Sunday. Marshall's injury is the one to watch approaching Friday night's battle with Ohio, with it being unlikely that the sophomore plays despite getting the cast removed. Whether or not Marshall plays however, UNC is going to have a heck of a time figuring out how to slow down Bobcat point guard D.J. Cooper.

Cooper leads the Bobcats in scoring and assists while also grabbing 3.8 rebounds per game, and with an A/T ratio of 2.0 he's a more than sound decision-maker as well. Be it Justin Watts or Stilman White's who's at the point at any given time, UNC has to figure out a way to slow down Cooper. Do that and they slow down John Groce's offense as a whole. Nick Kellogg and Walter Offutt are both solid shooters with the latter also being Ohio's second-leading scorer, yet as a team they shoot just 43% from the field and essentially break even on assists (13.1 per game) and turnovers (13.0).

UNC has been far better in that area thanks in large part to Marshall, but it remains to he seen how well they do if he can't go. Ohio's forced 17 turnovers per game this season, and if they can approach that number on Friday night the Bobcats would have a shot. But can Ivo Baltic and company play well enough inside against Henson and Tyler Zeller? That's the biggest question mark for Ohio, who doesn't have a player taller than 6-8 in their rotation. Reggie Keely will be another banger in the paint for Ohio but UNC is the far superior rebounding team, and with Harrison Barnes on the wing there will be some difficult match-ups for Ohio to address.

North Carolina averages 1.13 points/possession on the season, but two of their losses (Duke at home at Florida State in the ACC title game) have come when they've exceeded that number. The reason against Florida State was defense, as the Seminoles scored 1.21 points/possession. Duke was able to pull off a miraculous comeback in the final three minutes, so there may not be as much to read into there. But Ohio doesn't have the size that Florida State has, making it tough to see them being able to go blow for blow with Henson and Zeller. That doesn't mean that the Bobcats can't win; just means that completing the task will be very difficult.

(2) Kansas vs. (11) NC State (10:17 PM, TBS)
The nightcap in St. Louis will be a very interesting battle as the Wolfpack have interior depth to throw at Kansas. Purdue was able to be physical with the All-American, rotating players on Robinson to take advantage of the five fouls afforded to each. But Mark Gottfied, while he may have the bodies to do so, can't afford to have a Richard Howell, C.J. Leslie or C.J. Williams to end up in early foul trouble. That's been a problem for NC State when they've struggled this season, and it's a battle that the Pack have been able to avoid for the most part through two games in the Big Dance.

The key for Kansas inside will be the play of their rotation guys not named Robinson, with Jeff Withey clearly being the most important. Withey, who has improved a great deal since last season, has scored in double figures just three times in the last nine games with all three being 11-point outings. Of greater importance will be his work on the glass, where after grabbing nine (and blocking five shots) against Detroit he was only able to corral two in 15 minutes of action on Sunday. Justin Wesley and Kevin Young also stand to see some action with Young grabbing seven boards against Purdue.

Leslie's a slender four who can run the floor with the best of them, and of his current stretch of 15 straight games in double figures he's shot below 42% from the field just twice with one being a 41.7% outing against Boston College. The Jayhawks and Wolfpack are rather similar when it comes to hitting the offensive glass (State has a OR% of 35.6% while Kansas is at 35.0%) but Kansas has done a better job of keeping their opponent from doing so. That could make a difference down the stretch, especially if NC State is dealing with foul trouble in the paint.

The battle at the point between Lorenzo Brown and Tyshawn Taylor should be fun to watch, with Young playing very well and Taylor looking to rebound from a subpar outing against Purdue. But at this point it's known what Taylor will bring to the table, making the production of Elijah Johnson and Travis Releford all the more important.

Johnson was outstanding on Sunday; without him this is a preview of Purdue/NC State as opposed to Kansas. If he can bring a similar performance (18 points, four rebounds) to the table Kansas will be tough to beat. Defensively they need to keep an eye on Scott Wood, one of the ACC's best shooters, and if NC State can get some open looks without relying on the three too much they're more than capable of springing the upset.

Kentucky vs Indiana: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Tue, 20 Mar 2012 11:35:22 -0400

(1) Kentucky vs. (4) Indiana: South Region

Records

Kentucky 34-2, 16-0 SEC (Regular-season Conference Champions; At large)

Indiana 27-8, 11-7 Big Ten (At large)

Time: 9:45 p.m. Friday

TV: CBS

Location: Georgia Dome in Atlanta

Winner will face: (3) Baylor or (10) Xavier, Sunday

Tournament Results

Kentucky def. Western Kentucky, 81-66; def. Iowa State 87-71

Indiana def. New Mexico State 79-66; def. VCU 63-61

Rankings

Kentucky No. 1 AP; No. 1 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

Indiana No. 16 AP; No. 17 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Kentucky 3

Indiana 11

Line: Kentucky -9 (O/U 146½)

Players to Watch

Kentucky: F Anthony Davis, 6-10 Fr. (14.3 ppg, 10.1 ppg, 4.6 bpg); F Terrence Jones, 6-9 So. (12.6 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 1.8 bpg); G Marquise Teague, 6-2 Fr. (9.9 ppg, 4.8 apg, 2 spg). Teague’s continued improvement has made the Wildcats the unquestioned NCAA Tournament favorites. In Saturday’s win over Iowa State, the freshman PG had perhaps his best performance at UK with 24 points (on 10-of-14 shooting), seven assists, four rebounds and a steal.

Indiana: C Tyler Zeller, 6-11 Fr. (16.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 2 spg, 60.2% FG); F Christian Watford, 6-9 Jr. (12.2 ppg, 5.8 apg, 44.5% 3s); G Victor Oladipo, 6-5 Sr. (10.1 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 2 apg). While Zeller and Will Sheehey were the heroes in Saturday’s win over VCU, Oladipo’s all-around play was crucial. He put up nine points (on 4-of-5 from the field), six assists, five rebounds, a steal and a block.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Kentucky: UK does a lot well. You know about the Wildcats’ size, their athleticism, their defense and their transition game. The big thing about this game, however, is how badly they’re going to want it. Do you think the Wildcats salivated as soon as they saw Indiana in their region when the brackets were announced? Do you think they remember the IU fans storming the court after Watford’s last-second shot on Dec. 10? Terrence Jones, in particular, will be out to have a big day after a 4-point, 1-rebound performance against the Hoosiers the first time around.

Indiana: The Hoosiers know they can beat Kentucky. One of the best shooting teams in the country, Indiana hit 9-of-15 from behind the arc in December’s win over Kentucky. They also out-rebounded the bigger Cats 28-26 and got 12 offensive boards. This is a young but confident team. For the year, Indiana is shooting 49.1 percent from the field, which is fifth in the nation, 43.7 from the 3-point line, second in the country, and 76.3 from the foul line, 11^th. The Hoosiers also average 13.5 assists and have a plus-4.4 rebounding margin.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Kentucky: Um, well, the Wildcats are not great in the half-court. They’re not always a tremendous shooting team. Teague used to be turnover prone. They have little tournament experience and not a lot of depth. The bottom line, it’s hard to find a lot of weaknesses with Kentucky.

Indiana: The Hoosiers turned the ball over 22 times in the win over VCU – and Kentucky will bring similar pressure. Starting PG Jordy Hulls had five turnovers in 30 minutes. And that wasn’t an anomaly. Indiana averages 13.6 errors per game and allows 6.8 steals. That will be the biggest part of Tom Crean’s gameplan – and John Calipari’s. If Indiana handles UK’s pressure, it has a chance to beat the Wildcats again. If not, it could be a blowout.

The Bottom Line: Kentucky will get its revenge, but as well as Indiana shoots, it’s hard to image it won’t stay within nine points.

The Pick: Kentucky 80, Indiana 75

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 214-164-6

NCAA Tournament (through first two rounds): 27-21-1

Early 2012-13 Ranking: A Look Ahead

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 20 Mar 2012 00:38:44 -0400

Although the Sweet Sixteen looms later this week, its still time to start looking ahead to the 2012-13 season. Sure, the usual assortment of stars like Anthony Davis, Thomas Robinson, and Jared Sullinger will be heading to the NBA, there's still a ton of talent returning next year. Especially in the non-BCS ranks, many of this year's top teams were led by juniors and sophomores.

I've had to make many assumptions about the NBA Draft in compiling the following list. Once players make their official decisions, this ranking will be updated later in the summer. Also uncertain is where some remaining unsigned recruits will end up. In particular, Shabazz Muhammad (#1 by Rivals.com), Anthony Bennett (#7), Devonta Pollard (#9), and Nerlens Noel (#3 in 2013) remain up for grabs. I purposely made no assumptions about where unsigned prospects will end up.

For now, here are next year's Top 60 teams, starting with the first 15. (16 to 30 can be found here.) All prospect rankings are using the Rivals 150 ranking.

Early Top 15

1 Duke Miles Plumlee is the only senior on the roster, and although Austin Rivers could certainly go pro, his season didn't warrant a top 10 selection. The addition of guard Rasheed Sulaimon, ranked 32nd by Rivals helps overcome a potential Rivers loss. This will be revisited if Rivers (and to a lesser extent Mason Plumlee) do in fact enter the Draft.

2 Indiana Assuming Zeller doesn't go pro, the top 5 scorers return from a Sweet Sixteen team. Add a loaded class that includes Rivals #16 Hanner Parea, #17 Kevin "Yogi" Ferrell, and #48 Jeremy Hollowell, and you got yourself a title contender.

3 Michigan Rivals #3 Mitch McGary joins a squad that was already Top-20 caliber this year. Glenn Robinson III, 34th ranked, is another solid prospect that can offset the loss of senior Steve Novak. If Trey Burke were to go pro, this ranking would certainly change.

4 Baylor Perry Jones is as good as gone, and Quincy Miller could be tempted to bolt as well. But the cupboard isn't bare with the likes of Jackson and Heslip returning. Scott Drew also adds future pro Isaiah Austin along with 2 other 4-star recruits.

5 North Carolina Zeller graduates after a fine career, and Harrison Barnes, John Henson, and Kendall Marshall are likely to bolt for the pros. But players like Bullock, Hairston, and McAdoo are ready to step out of the shadows. #40 prospect Marcus Paige and #49 Brice Johnson are solid additions, but UNC could use one more superstar recruit.

6 Wisconsin While senior Jordan Taylor had a disappointing season according to some, he was still the main cog in the Badgers wheel. However, the other key players from this Sweet Sixteen team return, and will be joined by Sam Dekker, Wisconsin's first 5-star recruit since Joe Krabbenhoft in 2005.

7 Louisville Although Kyle Kuric and Chris Smith graduate, expect more of the same from Louisville next year: a starless team that wins by defense. PG Terry Rozier is the only recruit locked up right now.

8 Syracuse While Kris Joseph and Scoop Jardine are major losses, Syracuse's 2012-13 hopes rest on offseason Draft decisions. Dion Waiters could go pro and Fab Melo is as good as gone. There's still talent remaining on the roster and the addition of #27 prospect DaJuan Coleman will help as well.

9 NC State Mark Gottfried inherited a talented roster, and did the best of it with a surprise Sweet Sixteen run. CJ Williams is a senior and CJ Leslie could decide to turn pro, but the rest of the roster returns intact. Even if Leslie leaves, NC State re-loads with 6th ranked prospect Rodney Purvis, #23 TJ Warren and #55 Tyler Lewis. Expectations will be higher than they've been in years.

10 Kentucky Kentucky's roster will most likely be decimated as Anthony Davis and Terrence Jones will undoubtedly leave, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is 70% gone (even if he says he's staying), and Doron Lamb and Marquis Teague are certainly First Round worthy. Plus Darius Miller and Eloy Vargas are seniors. Archie Goodwin, Alex Poythress, and Willie Cauley are all Top 40 prospects, but not as good as the guys they're replacing.

11 Creighton While Antoine Young is a major loss, the return of Doug McDermott gives Creighton one of the country's top handful of players. Along with 3 other returning starters, Creighton will be the class of the MVC.

12 Ohio St Jared Sullinger will presumably leave after his sophomore season, and William Buford is a senior. The x-factor is Deshaun Thomas. He played well enough down the stretch to warrant going pro, but he could certainly return as well. OSU does not have any reinforcement on the way as of now.

13 San Diego St The Aztecs were a surprise team this year, thanks to emerging stars Jamaal Franklin and Chase Tapley. Besides their return, the squad also welcomes a solid recruiting class, including 40th ranked Winston Shepard.

14 Kansas Tyshawn Taylor is the major senior loss, and Thomas Robinson will probably declare for the Draft. Its also conceivable that Jeff Withey declares for the pros as well. This would leave only 2 players that averaged over 5 ppg. Perry Ellis will be expected to come in and contribute from day one.

15 Michigan St Besides losing their leading everything in senior Draymond Green, Brandon Wood and Austin Thompson also graduate. Next year's freshmen class is similar in talent to this year's that produced Dawsen and Trice.

Teams 16 to 30: Kansas St, Memphis, Texas, and more.. Check back next week for teams 31 to 60.

Poll: Which Remaining #4 Seed Has Best Chance to Advance?

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 19 Mar 2012 11:03:40 -0400

Indiana vs VCU: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 17:02:39 -0400

(4) Indiana vs. (12) Virginia Commonwealth: South Region

Records

Indiana 26-8, 11-7 Big Ten (At large)

VCU 29-6, 15-3 CAA (Conference Tournament Champions)

Time: 7:10 p.m. Saturday

TV: TBS

Location: Rose Garden in Portland, Ore.

First round results

Indiana def. New Mexico State 79-66

VCU def. Wichita State 62-59

Winner will face: (1) Kentucky or (8) Iowa State, Friday in Atlanta

Rankings

Indiana No. 16 AP; No. 17 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

VCU No. 32 AP; No. 31 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Indiana 14

VCU 35

Line: Indiana -5 (O/U 139)

Players to Watch

Indiana: C Cody Zeller, 6-11 Fr. (15.5 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 62.6% FG); F Christian Watford, 6-9 Jr. (12 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 42.2% 3s); x Jordan Hulls, 6-0 Jr. (11.5 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 49.2% 3s). Watford got the Hoosiers off to a hot start with a pair of 3s to open the game and he finished with 14 points on 6-of-11 shooting. When Watford is scoring, the Hoosiers are nearly unbeatable.

VCU: F Bradford Burgess, 6-6 Sr. (13.3 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 36.6% 3s); G Darius Theus, 6-3 Jr. (8.6 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 1.9 spg); G Troy Daniels, 6-4 Jr. (10 ppg, 1.2 spg, 38.5% 3s). Daniels’ shooting was key in VCU’s upset of the Shockers. He was 4-for-8 from the field, including 2-for-5 from deep for 10 points. He also gave the Rams six big rebounds.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Indiana: Indiana shot 55.1 percent and out-rebounded a much bigger, stronger New Mexico State in a 13-point win that really wasn’t even that close. The Hoosiers have one of the most efficient offenses in the country. They shoot 49 percent from the floor (sixth in the country), 43.6 from 3 (second nationally) and 76.3 percent from the foul line (11^th in the country). They have shot 47.9 percent or better in four of their last five games (and have won 4-of-5) and has shot 40 percent or better from 3 in their last seven straight (and won six of them). Indiana has gotten to the line more than all but 14 teams in the country.

VCU: The Rams are winners. After going to the Final 4 last year, VCU has won 19 of its last 10. The Rams expect to win these games. Burgess, who made the big 3 in Thursday’s win, is an excellent leader and go-to scorer. The Rams win with defense. For the year, they have 371 steals (10.5 per game), which leads the nation, and force 17.8 turnovers per game. They have an astounding plus-6.4 turnover margin and a solid 1.07 assist-to-turnover ratio. They also hold opponents to 42.2 percent shooting and 31.8 percent from deep.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Indiana: Perimeter defense has been an issue of late. Wisconsin hit 13-of-26 from 3 in the Hoosiers’ Big Ten quarterfinal loss. Until the Aggies went 4-for-12 on Thursday, Indiana had given up 38 percent or better from 3 in six straight games. The Hoosiers turn the ball over 12.9 times per game, including 12 Thursday, and that could be an issue against a strong VCU pressure defense. The Hoosiers have turned the ball over on nearly one of every five possessions throughout the season.

VCU: The Rams struggle to score. They average 68.2 points but many of those points come from their defense. They shoot just 41 percent from the floor. They Rams were out-rebounded by their opponents by 1.4 per game this year. Those will both be concerns for coach Shaka Smart against Hoosiers team that plays solid defense and rebounds fairly well.

The Bottom Line: Very interesting game. Indiana’s offense looked incredible against a much bigger NMSU squad, and VCU’s defense looked stellar against a great Wichita State offense. If Indiana can beat the Rams’ pressure, it should win going away. Whether the Hoosiers can do that, though, is in question.

The Pick: Indiana 69, VCU 59

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 206-158-6 (Through Thursday, March 16)

Indiana vs New Mexico St: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Tue, 13 Mar 2012 03:07:30 -0400

(4) Indiana vs. (13) New Mexico State: South Region

Records

Indiana 25-8, 11-7 Big Ten (At large)

New Mexico State 26-9, 10-4 WAC (Conference Tourney Champions)

Time: 9:45 p.m. Thursday

TV: CBS

Location: Rose Garden in Portland, Ore.

Winner will face: (5) Wichita State or (12) Virginia Commonwealth, Saturday

Rankings

Indiana No. 16 AP; No. 17 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Indiana 14

New Mexico State 68

Line: Indiana -5½ (O/U 152)

Players to Watch

Indiana: C Cody Zeller, 6-11 Fr. (15.5 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 62.6% FG); G Victor Oladipo, 6-5 So. (10.9 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 1.4 spg); G Jordan Hulls, 6-0 Jr. (11.5 ppg, 3.2 apg, 49.2% 3s). Zeller continued an impressive initial college basketball season with 36 points on 9-of-18 shooting and 18-of-23 from the charity stripe in two Big Ten Tournament games.

New Mexico State: F Wendell McKines, 6-6 Sr. (18.8 ppg, 10.8 rpg, 1.6 apg); C Hamidu Rahman, 6-11 Jr. (10 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 60.3% FG); G Hernst Laroche, 6-1 Sr. (12 ppg, 3.8 apg, 1.8 spg). McKines dominated Louisiana Tech in the WAC championship game with 27 points (on 12-of-16 from the floor and 3-of-4 from the 3-point line) and 14 rebounds. It was the 20^th double-double of the season for the WAC’s leader in scoring and rebounding.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Indiana: The Hoosiers are a great shooting team, averaging 77.3 points per game (18^th in the country), 48.7 from the field (eighth nationally), 43.3 from the 3-point line (second in the nation) and 76.2 from the foul line (12^th in the country). Indiana can get scoring from everyone it puts on the floor. Four Hoosiers average double-figuring scoring and another three average at least 4.5.

New Mexico State: The Aggies have one of the biggest frontlines in all of college basketball with 6-11 Rahman, 6-10 Tshilidze Nephawe, 6-10 Renaldo Dixon and the strong 6-6 McKines. NMSU’s guard play is also solid with Laroche at the point and freshman Daniel Mullings, who had the first triple-double in school history this season. The Aggies are a great rebounding team at plus-8.7 on the boards this season. They out-rebounded Louisiana Tech by 19 in the WAC championship. They were also second in the WAC in steals at 6.8 per game and forced turnovers at 14.6 per contest.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Indiana: The Hoosiers obviously have no NCAA experience – and they’re still very young. Indiana already lacked quality depth before the loss of Verdell Jones III, who was lost for the season after suffering an ACL injury during the Big Ten Tournament. Size could be an issue, particularly against the huge Aggies. Outside of 6-11 Zeller and 6-9 Christian Watford, Indiana may have to try subs who rarely see playing time to matchup with the bigs. Indiana has struggled defensively at times, including allowing Wisconsin’s Rob Wilson, who averaged three points per game, to score 30 in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals.

New Mexico State: The Aggies got a bit of a break when Louisiana Tech upset regular-season WAC champion Nevada in the semifinals. NMSU didn’t fare well against the best teams on its schedule, losing games to Southern Miss (twice), Nevada (twice), New Mexico and Arizona. The Aggies’ biggest problem in those losses was turnovers. They coughed up the ball 14.7 times per game.

The Bottom Line: Indiana may be the favorite in college basketball a year from now, but this year’s team can not hang with New Mexico St’s better size and experience.

The Pick: New Mexico State 80, Indiana 75

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 198-148-6 (Through Sunday, March 11)

Kentucky's Run to Start in Louisville: South Region Thoughts

Raphielle Johnson — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 23:54:30 -0400

.pdf bracket

The Kentucky Wildcats, as has been expected for quite some time, is the top overall seed and they will begin their (hopeful) journey to New Orleans on the floor of bitter rival Louisville. That won't be a problem however as Big Blue Nation likely planned months in advance for their first two games being at the KFC Yum! Center.

First up for them is the winner of the First Four game between Mississippi Valley State and Western Kentucky, with both possibilities offering up subplots that will certainly be discussed.

Ray Harper's led the Hilltoppers from the depths of the Sun Belt to the Big Dance, and a win would match them up with the preeminent program in the state. MVSU is led by head coach Sean Woods, who is a Kentucky alum and hish shot gave UK a 102-101 lead on Duke with 2.1 seconds remaining in the 1992 East Regional final (more on this angle later). But after that, one couldn't blame John Calipari if he were to ask what the perks of being the top overall seed are besides geographical preference.

That 8/9 game looks like a very good battle as Iowa State takes on Connecticut. The Huskies are one of the nation's biggest underachievers, going from preseason Top 5 to a team that some asked whether or not they'd end up in the NIT.

Jim Calhoun's team doesn't lack for talent and it's a safe assumption that they'll be prepared as Calhoun has lost just one opening game (2008 vs. San Diego) during his tenure in Storrs. But in Royce White they'll take on a 6'9" point guard, and the Cyclones' many perimeter shooters could give the Huskies trouble.

The two-seed in the region is Duke, and if the bracket plays out according to seeds we could end up with Kentucky/Duke for a trip to the Final Four...20 years after they met in Philadelphia in one of the greatest games ever played.

The Blue Devils will need a healthy Ryan Kelly to be at their best offensively, and their perimeter defense needs to be better as well. They'll have to beat Lehigh (C.J. McCollum) followed by Notre Dame (Eric Atkins and Jerian Grant) or Xavier (Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons) in order to reach the Sweet 16.

As for the three-seed, that distinction belongs to Scott Drew's Baylor Bears and their presence adds to the South Region's edge in the "projected NBA lottery picks" department. Quincy Acy and Perry Jones III are the leaders up front and the Bears can go five deep there, and guard Pierre Jackson has been one of the nation's best newcomers.

The Bears get South Dakota State and Nate Wolters first, and the Jackrabbits are capable of pulling off the upset. And that 6/11 battle between UNLV and Colorado could end up providing more suspense than the casual fan would think given the struggles of the Pac-12.

Indiana makes their return to the Big Dance and while Tom Crean's club is more than capable of stringing together some wins the committee didn't give them the easiest matchup. New Mexico State features the talented Wendell McKines and they've got some size inside as well.

The biggest "wrong" in the region: the 5/12 matchup, as both Wichita State and VCU have the potential to do some special things this month. Instead, one of them is guaranteed to head home. Kentucky will be the clear favorite to get through the region, but despite the Louisville to Atlanta path they didn't receive a road that's smoothly paved.

Winner: Kentucky

Best second round matchup: Wichita State vs. VCU

All-Region Team
G Austin Rivers (Duke)
G Jeremy Lamb (Connecticut)
F Anthony Davis (Kentucky)
F Royce White (Iowa State)
F Quincy Acy (Baylor)