Xavier

Early 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 46 to 60

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 11:05:09 -0400

Continuing with the Early 2012-13 Ranking, here are teams 46 to 60.

Its worth repeating that I had to make many assumptions about the NBA Draft in compiling the following list, and I've noted which assumptions I've made. This ranking will be updated later in the summer once players have made their official draft decisions. Also uncertain is where some remaining unsigned recruits will end up, and how the coaching carousel will take form. I purposely made no assumptions about where unsigned prospects will end up. (All prospect rankings are according to the Rivals 150 ranking.)

Early 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 45-60

46 Miami Another year under Jim Larranaga should find the Hurricanes on the inside of the NCAA Tournament bubble. Malcolm Grant departs but he did not have a terribly good season anyways.

47 Butler After a down year, Butler should once again be the class of the Horizon League. Transfer Rotnei Clarke gives them a scoring-punch that was severely lacking this year. Three solid guards enter as freshmen, who should help with depth.

48 Colorado Carlon Brown and Austin Dufault are not small loses, but the hope is that Andre Roberson blossoms into a Pac-12 Player of the Year candidate. The Buffs recruiting haul is easily their best of the last decade.

49 BYU The Cougars lose veterans Hartsock and Abouo but should still settle into their usual bubble-bound slot. Another year of improvement from Matt Carlino should help.

50 Pittsburgh Coming off of a disastrous season, Pittsburgh has no where to go but up. Although Gibbs and Robinson depart, the Panthers welcome 4th ranked recruit Steven Adams, one of their best-ever recruits. A healthy Tray Woodall would certainly help as well.

51 UCF After being a fringe-bubble team that last two years, UCF will once again be hoping to make the tourney. Although PG AJ Rompza graduates, the team returns solid All-CUSA caliber players in Keith Clanton, Marcus Jordan, and Isaiah Sykes.

52 Temple The Owls should take a step back with key senior losses, including leader Ramone Moore, but expect them to still be competitive in the A10. Khalif Wyatt could score 20 ppg now that the team is fully in his hands. The recruiting haul might be Temple's best since 2007.

53 Xavier Besides leader Tu Holloway, they also loses Kenny Frease and Andre Walker. Role players like Travis Taylor and Jeff Robinson will really need to step it up if Xavier wants to makes its 8th tourney in a row. 4-star recruit Semaj Christon is capable of contributing at PG from day one.

54 UCONN Jeremy Lamb and Andre Drummond will presumably go pro, and the roster looks pretty thin without them. Last year's shock tourney run covers up what has been 3 years in a row of .500 or worse basketball in Big East play. Add in the potential sanctions and Calhoun's health, and you have yourself a lot of questions.

55 Belmont Seniors Drew Hanlen, Mick Hedgepeth, and Scott Saunders depart, but Kerron Johnson and Ian Clark are still two of the A-Sun's top players. Incoming PG Craig Bradshaw is one of Belmont's better pickups and should fit right into the program.

56 South Florida Three seniors that played over 25 minutes per game depart, but South Florida shouldn't expect too much of a drop-off. USF's 4-person recruiting class is solid for their standards, but still mediocre as far as the Big East goes.

57 Mississippi St With Dee Bost a senior and Arnett Moultrie presumably going pro, Mississippi St loses its leading scorer, passer, rebounder, and defender. Although an underrated 5-person recruiting class was set to come in, Rick Stanbury's retirement does open some questions.

58 West Virginia For a team that often struggled to score the ball, it will be interesting to see how they'll manage without Kevin Jones and Darryl Bryant. Those two scored almost 50% of the Mountaineers points. Aaric Murray and Juwan Staten are solid transfers who will help.

59 Southern Miss USM was never as good as their gaudy RPI suggested.. Graduations will put a major dent into their major strength, which was depth, but their top two scorers do return.

60 Iowa St The key for Iowa St is whether Royce White decides to go pro. I'm assuming here that he does, which would mean the Cyclones lose their 3 leading scorers. A pair of solid transfers enter the mix, as well as their best recruiting class in a few years.

Also Under Consideration (alphabetical order)

Akron

California

Harvard

Illinois St

Minnesota

Nevada

Ole Miss

Oregon

Providence

Vanderbilt

Virginia

<< Return to 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 1 to 45

Friday's Sweet 16 Thoughts

Raphielle Johnson — Thu, 22 Mar 2012 15:58:56 -0400

Thursday's Sweet 16 Preview

When compared to Thursday's slate the four matchups on Friday may leave a little to be desired for the casual fan, with a double-digit seed playing in three of the four games. The lone exception is Kentucky/Indiana, who staged a classic back in December. Here are some thoughts on the four games to be played in Atlanta and St. Louis.

South Region (Atlanta)

(3) Baylor vs. (10) Xavier (7:15 PM, CBS)
When looking solely at the match-ups in the paint the battle between the Bears and Musketeer could look a lot like Baylor's 2010 Sweet 16 game against Saint Mary's. Scott Drew's team had the edge in terms of both depth and size as the overwhelmed Omar Samhan and company to advance to the Elite 8. Baylor enjoys an advantage inside against Xavier as well, with the biggest question being which Kenny Frease shows up: the one who struggled mightily against St. Bonaventure in the A-10 tournament title, or the one who played well in wins over Notre Dame and Lehigh last weekend?

With the Musketeers having two of the best guards remaining in the field in Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons, they're going to need Frease, Andre Walker and even Travis Taylor to hold their own in the paint. The word "warrior" fits Baylor's Quincy Acy perfectly, and in Perry Jones III and Quincy Miller the Bears have two likely lottery picks whenever they decide to head to the next level. Cory Jefferson and Anthony Jones also factor into the rotation, and if they can rebound at a solid rate (Baylor rebounds 38% of their misses) it could be a rough evening for the Xavier bigs.

Clearly Xavier's chances of winning lie on the shoulders of Holloway and Lyons, and if those two can control the flow of the game it's more than possible that they win. Both shoot 43% from the field with Lyons being the better three-point shooter, and they'll need to post solid assist-to-turnover ratios as well. Dezmine Wells, who sprained his ankle in the win over Lehigh, will also factor into the Musketeer attack. Baylor's guards have improved as the season has progressed, which should make for a fun match-up on the perimeter.

Brady Heslip, nicknamed the "Downtown Canadian", shot the ball extremely well in Albuquerque last week and it will be interesting to see if he can continue to do so with the sight lines of the Georgia Dome. Pierre Jackson is their best playmaker and A.J. Walton has increased his impact down the stretch. As a team Baylor has a slightly better A/T ratio (1.08 to Xavier's 1.04) but they turn the ball over on a higher percentage of their possessions (20.5% to 18.6%). If Frease and company can hold their own inside Xavier has a shot, making that the biggest key to tomorrow's game.

(1) Kentucky vs. (4) Indiana (9:45 PM, CBS)
Lost count of how many times ESPNU has shown the replay of their December 10th meeting in Bloomington this week? Can't blame you if you have, but with that being the Wildcats' lone regular season defeat (losing to Vanderbilt in the SEC tournament final) there's good reason why many would look back to that game for keys on how to beat Kentucky. But to be fair John Calipari's team is a different group now than they were back in December, with the play of Terrence Jones and Marquis Teague being two reasons why.

Teague, who played well in the regular season meeting between the two, has improved in regards to knowing when to establish his own offense and when to get Kentucky's other weapons involved. The Indianapolis native has a better A/T ratio (1.7) than any of Indiana's guards, and unless the Hoosiers give the responsibility of defending Teague to Victor Oladipo it remains to be seen who can slow him down. Jones' issue is similar to that of Baylor's Perry Jones III. When he's engaged and fully invested in the action, he's very difficult to slow down. And when paired with Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, that trio can wreak havoc when clicking on all cylinders.

Indiana was able to get Davis in foul trouble, limiting his impact on the game. Davis can clearly move his feet on the perimeter but it wouldn't be a surprise if the Hoosiers looked to run some early pick and roll action with Cody Zeller to not just take Davis away from the rim but to also see if they can pick up an early foul (or two) on the phenom. Zeller will be a key figure for the Hoosiers but so will Christian Watford, whose ability to play on the perimeter should match up well with Kidd-Gilchrist. The key for Watford will be to hit the glass; playing outside is fine but not at the expense of those "tough" plays in the paint.

Kentucky's the better team on the glass and they're the more efficient of the two both offensively and defensively as well. But IU won the first meeting by being the more efficient team in spite of 18 turnovers, a result of their ability to hold their own on the glass (30-30) and shooting 60% from three. Clearly if those things happen again Indiana will be in good position to win, but that's asking an awful lot of the Hoosiers. Jordan Hulls and Will Sheehey will be key figures on the perimeter, with Indiana needing to win the backcourt battle if they're to advance.

Midwest Region (St. Louis)

(1) North Carolina vs. (13) Ohio (7:47 PM, TBS)
North Carolina hasn't enjoyed the greatest of luck with wrists this month, first having John Henson injure his left wrist during the ACC tournament and then having Kendall Marshall break his right wrist against Creighton on Sunday. Marshall's injury is the one to watch approaching Friday night's battle with Ohio, with it being unlikely that the sophomore plays despite getting the cast removed. Whether or not Marshall plays however, UNC is going to have a heck of a time figuring out how to slow down Bobcat point guard D.J. Cooper.

Cooper leads the Bobcats in scoring and assists while also grabbing 3.8 rebounds per game, and with an A/T ratio of 2.0 he's a more than sound decision-maker as well. Be it Justin Watts or Stilman White's who's at the point at any given time, UNC has to figure out a way to slow down Cooper. Do that and they slow down John Groce's offense as a whole. Nick Kellogg and Walter Offutt are both solid shooters with the latter also being Ohio's second-leading scorer, yet as a team they shoot just 43% from the field and essentially break even on assists (13.1 per game) and turnovers (13.0).

UNC has been far better in that area thanks in large part to Marshall, but it remains to he seen how well they do if he can't go. Ohio's forced 17 turnovers per game this season, and if they can approach that number on Friday night the Bobcats would have a shot. But can Ivo Baltic and company play well enough inside against Henson and Tyler Zeller? That's the biggest question mark for Ohio, who doesn't have a player taller than 6-8 in their rotation. Reggie Keely will be another banger in the paint for Ohio but UNC is the far superior rebounding team, and with Harrison Barnes on the wing there will be some difficult match-ups for Ohio to address.

North Carolina averages 1.13 points/possession on the season, but two of their losses (Duke at home at Florida State in the ACC title game) have come when they've exceeded that number. The reason against Florida State was defense, as the Seminoles scored 1.21 points/possession. Duke was able to pull off a miraculous comeback in the final three minutes, so there may not be as much to read into there. But Ohio doesn't have the size that Florida State has, making it tough to see them being able to go blow for blow with Henson and Zeller. That doesn't mean that the Bobcats can't win; just means that completing the task will be very difficult.

(2) Kansas vs. (11) NC State (10:17 PM, TBS)
The nightcap in St. Louis will be a very interesting battle as the Wolfpack have interior depth to throw at Kansas. Purdue was able to be physical with the All-American, rotating players on Robinson to take advantage of the five fouls afforded to each. But Mark Gottfied, while he may have the bodies to do so, can't afford to have a Richard Howell, C.J. Leslie or C.J. Williams to end up in early foul trouble. That's been a problem for NC State when they've struggled this season, and it's a battle that the Pack have been able to avoid for the most part through two games in the Big Dance.

The key for Kansas inside will be the play of their rotation guys not named Robinson, with Jeff Withey clearly being the most important. Withey, who has improved a great deal since last season, has scored in double figures just three times in the last nine games with all three being 11-point outings. Of greater importance will be his work on the glass, where after grabbing nine (and blocking five shots) against Detroit he was only able to corral two in 15 minutes of action on Sunday. Justin Wesley and Kevin Young also stand to see some action with Young grabbing seven boards against Purdue.

Leslie's a slender four who can run the floor with the best of them, and of his current stretch of 15 straight games in double figures he's shot below 42% from the field just twice with one being a 41.7% outing against Boston College. The Jayhawks and Wolfpack are rather similar when it comes to hitting the offensive glass (State has a OR% of 35.6% while Kansas is at 35.0%) but Kansas has done a better job of keeping their opponent from doing so. That could make a difference down the stretch, especially if NC State is dealing with foul trouble in the paint.

The battle at the point between Lorenzo Brown and Tyshawn Taylor should be fun to watch, with Young playing very well and Taylor looking to rebound from a subpar outing against Purdue. But at this point it's known what Taylor will bring to the table, making the production of Elijah Johnson and Travis Releford all the more important.

Johnson was outstanding on Sunday; without him this is a preview of Purdue/NC State as opposed to Kansas. If he can bring a similar performance (18 points, four rebounds) to the table Kansas will be tough to beat. Defensively they need to keep an eye on Scott Wood, one of the ACC's best shooters, and if NC State can get some open looks without relying on the three too much they're more than capable of springing the upset.

Baylor vs Xavier: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Tue, 20 Mar 2012 10:36:04 -0400

(3) Baylor vs. (10) Xavier: South Region

Records

Baylor 29-7, 12-6 Big 12 (At large)

Xavier 23-12, 10-6 A-10 (At large)

Time: 7:15 p.m. Friday

TV: CBS

Location: Georgia Dome in Atlanta

Winner will face: (1) Kentucky or (4) Indiana, Sunday

Tournament Results

Baylor def. South Dakota State, 68-60; def. Colorado, 80-63

Xavier def. Notre Dame, 67-63; def. Lehigh, 70-58

Rankings

Baylor No. 9 AP; No. 10 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Baylor 9

Xavier 37

Line: Baylor -6 (O/U 140)

Players to Watch

Baylor: F Perry Jones III, 6-11 So. (13.9 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 49.4% FG); G Pierre Jackson, 5-10 Jr. (13.5 ppg, 5.8 apg, 41.8% 3s); G Brady Heslip, 6-2 So. (10.3 ppg, 45.5% FG, 45.6% 3s). If Heslip shoots like he did against Colorado – 9-of-13 from the 3-point line for 27 points – there may not be a team in the country that can beat the Bears.

Xavier: G Tu Holloway, 6-0 Sr. (17.3 ppg, 5 apg, 1.3 spg); G Mark Lyons, 6-1 Jr. (15.3 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 2.8 apg, 1.3 spg); C Kenny Frease, 7-0 Sr. (9.5 ppg, 6 rpg, 1.1 bpg). Frease had a season-high 25 points – his previous best was 19 in a 65-57 win over Richmond – and had his first double-double since March 3 with 12 boards in Sunday’s win over Lehigh.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Baylor: The Bears are long and athletic, causing mismatches for almost every team they face. Against Colorado, Baylor out-rebounded the Buffaloes 34-27 and got 13 offensive boards. For the year, Baylor out-rebounds opponents by 5.4 per game. They also forced 13 turnovers, including nine steals. The Bears average 7.6 steals and force 14.2 turnovers per game. Led by Heslip, they were 11-for-20 from the 3-point line. All season, the Bears have been solid behind the arc, hitting 38.6 percent.

Xavier: Holloway is a great leader who usually saves his best performances for the biggest games, including 46 points through two games of this year’s tournament. Lyons and freshman Dez Wells make up a strong backcourt, helping the Musketeers average 13.2 assists and six steals per game. Xavier excels through its defense, which allows opponents to shoot just 39.9 percent from the floor and 30.5 percent from the arc this season. Lehigh, which entered Sunday’s game red-hot, shot just 21-for-64 against the Musketeers.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Baylor: The Bears are far too error-prone, averaging 13.8 turnovers per game. Despite their incredible size and an almost nightly athleticism advantage, Baylor often prefers to stick to shooting jump shots. That has led to only 46.9 percent from the field for the year. Their inconsistency has also been noted, even by Xavier coach Chris Mack. Although Mack said in a radio interview with Dan Dakich Monday that he’s sure the Bears will come to play, lack of intensity is always a concern for fans in Waco.

Xavier: Frease is inconsistent and prone to foul trouble. Xavier has very little frontline depth and out-rebounds opponents just 36.4-34.1 per game. They also allow opponents to rebound 30.2 percent of their misses and gave up 13 offensive boards to a smaller Lehigh team, which could be a big concern against the bigger, more athletic Baylor frontline. X turns the ball over 12.5 times per game and allows opponents 6.4 steals per contest. Their 69.2 percent free throw shooting is also a concern.

The Bottom Line: On the one hand, Xavier has a tough time guarding the paint and will be overwhelmed by Baylor’s bigs. On the other, Baylor has had a tough time guarding the perimeter and the Musketeer guards could torch the Bears. Tough line, but I like the way Baylor’s guards played against Colorado.

The Pick: Baylor 75, Xavier 67

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 214-164-6

NCAA Tournament (through first two rounds): 27-21-1

Poll: Which Surprise Team Has Best Chance of Advancing to Elite 8?

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 19 Mar 2012 10:46:16 -0400

Top 10 Performances of 2nd Round: 2012 Tournament

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 19 Mar 2012 00:41:07 -0400

The top 10 performances of the 2nd Round. No more intro is needed:

1 Brady Heslip, Baylor - 27 pts, 4 rbs, 9-12 from three. Against a Colorado team that had been winning with defense, Heslip exploded with 9 threes.

2 Kenny Frease, Xavier - 25 pts, 13 rbs, 2 blks - The biggest game of Frease's career. Previously had only 4 double-doubles all season and not a single 20 point game.

3 Draymond Green, Michigan St - 16 pts, 13 rbs, 6 asts, 2 stls - Where would MSU be without him? Majerus sung Green's praises after SLU fell.

4 Walter Offutt, Ohio - 21 pts, 3 rbs, 4 stls, 4-4 from three. Offutt's hot shooting helped a team put 60 on the board vs. USF for first time since February.

5 Jae Crowder, Marquette - 17 pts, 13 rbs, 3 asts, 3 stls, 2 blks - There's a reason he earned so many Big East plaudits. Was the difference in a game that was closer than the score suggests.

6 Royce White, Iowa St - 23 pts, 9 rbs, 4 asts, 3 stls, 1 blk. Stat-sheet filler isn't greatest shooter, but take him off Iowa St and they're not even an NIT team.

7 Drew Gordon, New Mexico - 21 pts, 14 rbs, 2 asts - He accounted for 38% of the Lobos offense in a close loss to Louisville.

8 Robbie Hummel, Purdue - 26 pts, 9 rbs, 3 asts - Had monster 22 point first half, but faded along with Purdue's upset hopes. Still managed 43% of Purdue's points.

9 Aaron Craft, Ohio St - 17 pts, 10 asts, 3 rbs, 3 stls - Had his first 10 assist game of the season. Owned Gonzaga's opposing guards.

10 Marquis Teague, Kentucky - 24 pts, 7 asts, 4 rbs, 10-14 shooting. First 20-point game of the freshman's career. Where was this Teague 2 months ago?

Others of Note:

DJ Cooper, Ohio - 19 pts, 7 rbs, 6 asts, 2 stls - Standard do-it-all performance from the Bobcats main main.

John Henson, North Carolina - 13 pts, 10 rbs, 4 blks, 2 steals - Back from injury, his presence was felt even more than his stats suggest.

Elijah Johnson, Kansas - 18 pts, 4 rbs, 3 asts, 2 stls - With Thomas Robinson struggling, he keyed Kansas to a comeback win.

Sean Kilpatrick, Cincinnati - 18 pts, 6 rbs, 2 stls - With Wright and Dixon 7-24 from the floor, Cincy needed Kilpatrick to step up.

Kendall Marshall, North Carolina - 18 pts, 11 asts, 4 rbs, 7-8 shooting. Every jumper he hit seemed to be worth 4 points to UNC.

Hollis Thompson, Georgetown - 23 pts, 5 rbs, 3 stls, 2 blks - Basically a one-man team in tough loss to NC State.

On to the Sweet Sixteen!

Xavier vs Lehigh: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Sat, 17 Mar 2012 23:31:51 -0400

(10) Xavier vs. (15) Lehigh: South Region

Records

Xavier 22-12, 10-6 A-10 (At large)

Lehigh 27-7, 11-3 Patriot League (Conference Tournament Champions)

Time: 7:45 p.m. Sunday

TV: TruTV

Location: Greensboro Arena in Greensboro, N.C.

Winner will face: (3) Baylor or (11) Colorado, Friday in Atlanta

First round results

Xavier def. Notre Dame, 67-63

Lehigh def. Duke, 75-70

RPI Ratings

Xavier 44

Lehigh 91

Line: Xavier -2½ (O/U 139½)

Players to Watch

Xavier: G Tu Holloway, 6-0 Sr. (17 ppg, 5.1 apg, 1.5 spg); G/F Dezmine Wells, 6-5 Fr. (10.2 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 51.8% FG); G Mark Lyons, 6-1 Jr. (15.5 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 2.7 apg). Walker got to the foul line 10 times in Friday’s 67-63 win over Notre Dame. He hit eight of them and grabbed six big boards as a key performer in the victory.

Lehigh: G C.J. McCollum, 6-3 Jr. (21.9 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 3.5 apg, 2.6 spg); F Gabe Knutson, 6-9 Jr. (12.1 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 50.2% FG); G Mackey McKnight, 6-0 So. (8.3 ppg, 3.7 apg, 2.8 rpg). Knutson was perfect in Friday’s upset of Duke, going 5-for-5 from the field. He was also 6-for-7 from the charity stripe for a 17-point, 8-rebound performance.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Xavier: The Musketeers showed their impressive balance in Friday’s win over Notre Dame. All five starters scored at least eight points. Best of all, Holloway was brilliant with 25 points on 10-of-15 shooting. If Xavier is going to advance, it’s going to be with Holloway leading the way. Xavier shot 50 percent in the win. For the season, they shoot 45.3 percent from the floor and 34.9 from the 3-point line. The Xavier defense allowed the Irish to shoot 51 percent, but for the season, it is holding opponents to 40 percent from the field and 12.7 turnovers per game.

Lehigh: McCollum is one of the best guards in the country. He proved it Friday, gashing Duke for 30 points, six rebounds, six assists and two steals. The best news was that he got plenty of help from his teammates. Despite a serious size disadvantage against the Blue Devils, Lehigh held them to 41.4 percent from the field and just 6-for-26 from 3 and out-rebounded Duke 37-34. This team is tough and it won’t go down without a fight.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Xavier: The Musketeers only turned the ball over 10 times against Notre Dame, but errors remain a concern. The Musketeer defense held the ND starting guards to 18 points on 6-of-20 shooting, but they’ll need to be even better against McCollum and McKnight. The Musketeers are sometimes prone to dribble penetration, something at which the Mountain Hawks excel.

Lehigh: The Mountain Hawks assist on only 51.3 percent of their field goal for the season and had just 12 assists on 22 field goals on Friday. Part of that is because the team can get stagnant watching McCollum work. If he’s having a bad game, Lehigh could be in trouble. For the season, the Hawks are shooting just 44.8 percent from the field and have just a 1.8 rebounding margin per game. They’ll have to improve on their 25-for-37 free throw shooting to continue to advance.

The Bottom Line: Lehigh isn’t a fluke. This team is quite good and has a legit shot at getting to a regional final.

The Pick: Lehigh 71, Xavier 67

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 216-165-6 (Through Friday, March 17)

Round of 32 Against the Spread: 19-12-1

Notre Dame vs Xavier: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Wed, 14 Mar 2012 09:33:18 -0400

(7) Notre Dame vs. (10) Xavier: South Region

Records

Notre Dame 22-11, 13-5 Big East (At large)

Xavier 21-12, 10-6 A-10 (At large)

Time: 9:45 p.m. Friday

TV: CBS

Location: Greensboro Arena in Greensboro, N.C.

Winner will face: (2) Duke or (15) Lehigh, Sunday

Rankings

Notre Dame No. 28 AP; No. 26 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Notre Dame 38

Xavier 44

Line: Notre Dame -2½ (O/U 124)

Players to Watch

Notre Dame: C Jack Cooley, 6-9 Jr. (12.4 ppg, 9 rpg, 61.2% FG); G Jerian Grant, 6-5 So. (12.3 ppg, 4.9 apg, 1.3 spg); F Scott Martin, 6-8 Sr. (9.5 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 1.6 apg). Cooley has had an up-and-down season, but when he’s good, he’s really good. He had 14 double-doubles, including a 27-point, 17-performance on March 2 in a 75-69 win over Providence.

Xavier: G Tu Holloway, 6-0 Sr. (17 ppg, 5.1 apg, 3.7 rpg); G Mark Lyons, 6-1 Jr. (15.5 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 2.7 apg); C Kenny Frease, 7-0 Sr. (9.5 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 48.7% FG). Holloway’s numbers were down across the board this season, but he’s been hot of late and March has always been his time. In his last four games, Holloway is averaging 21 points and almost five rebounds and three assists per game.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Notre Dame: If it wasn’t obvious before this season, it is now. Mike Bray is one of the elite college basketball coaches in the country. After losing leading scorer Tim Abromaitis for the season, Bray turned Notre Dame into a team that lost to Georgia and Maryland and Missouri by 29 points into a team that finished third in the Big East. The Irish play great defense. They held Big East opponents to 40.4 percent from the field, 25.5 from the 3-point line and 59.2 points per game. The Irish rank eighth in the nation with a 1.44-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio.

Xavier: The X offense has been inconsistent, but overall, it’s very good. Four different Musketeers average 9.5 points. They average 70.8 points, shoot 45.3 percent from the floor, and while they don’t take a lot of 3s, they shoot 34.9 from deep. As well as being balance, Xavier is also very deep. Ten different Musketeers play at least 10 minutes per game. The Xavier defense is its key. It allowed opponents to shoot just 39.8 percent from the floor and 30.6 from behind the 3-point line.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Notre Dame: While the Irish were strong in late-January and early-February, they have lost 3-of-5 down the stretch, including a 14-point loss to Louisville in their first Big East Tournament game. The Notre Dame offense scored just 41, 50 and 58 points in those three losses. For the season, the Irish have shot just 43.2 percent from the floor and average 66.5 point per game. They were also out-rebounded for the season (1,217-1,246; 682-664 in Big East play). While the Irish have great field goal defense, they have no pressure defense. They force just 10.8 turnovers per game and get just 5.2 steals.

Xavier: There’s no denying it, the Musketeers have had a disappointing season. They peaked in the top-10 and after their brawl with rival Cincinnati, they lost four of their next five and finished tied for third in the A-10 (after winning it the past five years). Xavier is average on the boards and they have a 1.05-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio and an even turnover margin.

The Bottom Line: Seems like a pretty even game, but I’m betting Holloway steps up his game to All-American levels.

The Pick: Xavier 70, Notre Dame 65

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 198-150-6 (Through Tuesday, March 14)

NCAA Tournament Preview: Backcourts to Watch

Raphielle Johnson — Tue, 13 Mar 2012 11:28:31 -0400

It's stated all the time this season. Guard play makes all the difference in the NCAA tournament, and to be honest it's hard to argue with that statement. So who are some of the top guard groups in this year's field? Here are 12 below along with a few superlatives. Not all of the usual suspects make the list, but try not to automatically dismiss the less heralded names either.

South Region

1. Duke
While this group does struggle at times on the defensive end of the floor there's no doubt that the Blue Devils' guards can fill it up. Austin Rivers is their best playmaker, and as long as the ACC Rookie of the Year can properly balance scoring with creating for his teammates he's very tough to stop. Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins are both dead-eye shooters, and Tyler Thornton is the best defender. But as noted above, if the defense isn't there Duke could find themselves in trouble.

2. Xavier
The Musketeers have to get past a tough Notre Dame team before a possible matchup with Duke (don't sleep on Lehigh's C.J. McCollum), but despite their struggles throughout the season Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons aren't to be ignored. Holloway runs the show and Lyons mans the two, and they can also call on Brad Redford for perimeter shooting.

3. UNLV
Most are likely going to wonder why the Runnin' Rebels are on this list and not, say, UConn but the fact of the matter is that Dave Rice's group has been more consistent throughout the season. Anthony Marshall is one of the best athletes in the country and Oscar Bellfield's impact tends to be overlooked by many. Add in a very good defender in Justin Hawkins and shooter Kendall Wallace and Dave Rice has a corps of guards capable of winning multiple games in the tournament.

Guards you'll love: C.J. McCollum (Lehigh) and Nate Wolters (South Dakota State)
Both are among the nation's best scorers, and Wolters leads the Jackrabbits in points, rebounds and assists. Each one has a matchup in which they could become household names, with McCollum taking on Duke and Wolters matching up with Baylor.

Best defender: Victor Oladipo (Indiana)
Good luck getting past the athletic Oladipo, whose offensive game has gotten closer to his defensive skills as the season's progressed. At the least the sophomore could be a first team All-Big Ten player next year.

The difference-maker: Marquis Teague (Kentucky)
If Kentucky's to reach their full potential (win a national title) the play of Teague will be key. He had an inconsistent SEC tournament but played his best basketball as the regular season came to a close.

The enigmatic group: Connecticut
Talent-wise there may not be a better group in the region. But despite the talent of Ryan Boatright, Jeremy Lamb and Shabazz Napier there are questions, most importantly will they be "there" for the entire 40 minutes. Drifting in and out of a game will get you beat this time of the year.

East Region

1. Syracuse
The Orange at the least can go three deep with starters Scoop Jardine and Brandon Triche with one of the nation's best reserves in Dion Waiters coming off the bench. The key to a national title will be Jardine, because while the Orange can easily plug someone into his role skill-wise if the fifth-year senior's struggling they can't replace the experience. And with Fab Melo out the guards become even more important.

2. Ohio State
This region has two elite defenders with the Buckeyes' Aaron Craft being one (more on the other later), and William Buford could become the program's all-time leading scorer with a deep run in the tournament. The Buckeyes aren't particularly deep on the perimeter (Jordan Sibert backs up Craft) but they are talented.

3. Florida State
If Luke Loucks takes care of the basketball this group has the ability to be even better than third best in the region. Michael Snaer has beenvery good all season long and the midseason addition of Ian Miller definitely helped on the offensive end. Deividas Dulkys can get hot from deep, as he did in their regular season win over North Carolina, and all can defend.

Guards you'll love: Will Cherry (Montana) and Kevin Pangos (Gonzaga)
Cherry's the other defensive star in this region, as he was named Defensive Player of the Year in the Big Sky and is among the best in the country in steals. Pangos is just a freshman, and his first introduction to college basketball came in the form of his impressive shooting performance in Gonzaga's tip-off marathon appearance.

Best defender: Craft

The difference-maker: Jordan Taylor (Wisconsin)
Wisconsin's been a team some have pegged as a possible upset victim, and if the Badgers are to not only avoid that but win multiple games their senior point guard will have to be at his best.

The enigmatic group: Cincinnati
The Bearcats were able to make a shift to a smaller lineup comfortably with the emergence (and return to health) of Jaquon Parker, and they've been a better team as a result. But given the number of threes that Dion Dixon, Sean Kilpatrick and Cashmere Wright get to take, the Bearcats need them to be on if they're to make a run.

Midwest Region

1. Temple
North Carolina has Kendall Marshall and Kansas can point to Tyshawn Taylor and Elijah Johnson. But the three-headed attack that Fran Dunphy has could be the best backcourt in the region. Juan Fernandez, Ramone Moore and Khalif Wyatt can all do a variety of things, making them interchangable in a sense. If they're on the Owls have the ability to not only reach the Sweet 16 but possibly go even further.

2. Kansas
Tyshawn Taylor shouldn't be questioned at this point, as the senior's matured and made better decisions with the basketball at this point in the season. The guy the Jayhawks need to be a factor over the next couple of weeks is Elijah Johnson, as he can relieve some of the pressure on the shoulders of Taylor and Thomas Robinson. Travis Releford has also been a key cog this season, and that will need to continue if Kansas is to reach New Orleans.

3. San Diego State
The Aztecs go four deep on the perimeter and all four can hurt you in different ways. Xavier Thames runs the show at the point and Chase Tapley is a solid scorer at the two, and all Jamaal Franklin did was win Mountain West Player of the Year. Last but not least is James Rahon, a key reserve in their Elite 8 run last season who can not only knock down perimeter shots but also do the little things.

Guys you'll love: D.J. Cooper (Ohio) and Kerron Johnson (Belmont)
Cooper was a key figure in the Bobcats' whipping of Georgetown in the 2010 tournament, and he's improved as a scorer while remaining a very good distributor. Johnson leads the way for Belmont, a team that's been a popular selection when it comes to teams that can pull off an upset (or two).

Best defender: Jorge Gutierrez (California)
Gutierrez won Pac-12 Player and Defensive Player of the Year for his efforts and with good reason. The senior is one guard few will be looking forward to seeing on the other side of the floor, beginning with USF on Wednesday night.

The difference-maker: Kendall Marshall (North Carolina)
The best passer in the region will be the guy who determines the winner of the Midwest. Marshall has also been more willing to punish sagging defenders by way of the jump shot, an aspect of his game that's improved over the course of the season.

Emerging star: Lorenzo Brown (NC State)
For a short time some asked if Brown was in fact the best point guard in the ACC. He's that talented, and with his size the sophomore has the potential to be a matchup problem for teams this week. And he's only going to get better with more experience.

West Region

1. Missouri
The Tigers navigated Laurence Bowers' torn ACL quite well thanks to their guards, going 30-4 and winning the Big 12 tournament title. Phil Pressey runs the show while Marcus Denmon and Kim English are the leading scorers. There's also Phil's older brother Matt and off the bench Michael Dixon Jr. is one of the best sixth men in the country. English's ability to produce at the four is tough to match, and unless a team has Jamar Samuels-like presence (Kansas State beat the Tigers twice for this reason) Mizzou could be headed to New Orleans.

2. Florida
The Gators are also deep on the perimeter but the key for them will be the decision making of Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker. If those two are unselfish and get the ball to Bradley Beal and Patric Young then Florida has the look of a team that can get to a Final Four. When they don't things tend to go wrong. Virginia's pack line defense will force Florida to make perimeter jumpers, but that's one of the things they do best.

3. Murray State
We all know about Isaiah Canaan by this point and rightfully so as the OVC Player of the Year is also an All-American. But Donte Poole can play as well, averaging 14.2 points per game. Add in senior Jewuan Long and you've got a nice group of guard capable of leading the Racers to the second weekend of the tournament.

Guys you'll love: Jason Brickman (LIU Brooklyn) and Casper Ware (Long Beach State)
Tried to go a bit off the radar with one of these selections, and with the high tempo that the Blackbirds prefer the sophomore from Texas will be fun to watch against Michigan State. Ware's been outstanding for four years and finally gets his shot at the game's biggest stage after two straight losses in the Big West tournament final.

Best defender: Darius Johnson-Odom (Marquette)
If Long Beach State's Larry Anderson were 100% he could qualify as would teammate James Ennis. But DJO, who is also one of the best scorers in the field, is also a good defender who can get out in passing lanes. With the Golden Eagles lacking a defensive presence in the paint the defensive effort of Johnson-Odom on the perimeter becomes even more important.

The difference-maker: Joe Jackson (Memphis)
One of the reasons why Josh Pastner's team has played so well down the stretch is that they've allowed Chris Crawford to take on more of the distribution duties. That in turn has relieved some of the pressure on Jackson, but he's still going to have to play well if the Tigers are to go out and prove that they were underseeded.

Another difference-maker: Peyton Siva (Louisville)
The question of which Siva will we see in Portland is similar to which Louisville team will we see: the one that was inconsistent during Big East play and struggled to score, or the one that won four games in New York City last week. If Siva's on and making good decisions the Cardinals are capable of beating anyone. If not then they're also capable of losing to anyone.

ACC, A10, Big Ten, SEC Finals Predictions

Greg Mengelt — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 04:35:21 -0400

This is it, the final day of the regular season, Selection Sunday. Our g ame prediction guru Greg Mengelt has been on fire this year and will continue picking each game of the NCAA Tournament.

ACC CHAMPIONSHIP: AT ATLANTA

(1) North Carolina (29-4, 14-2) at (3) Florida State (23-9, 12-4)

Tipoff: 1 p.m. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 14 – Florida State 90-57. RPI: North Carolina 3, Florida State 17. Analysis: The absence of John Henson puts the Heels at a disadvantage. Even if he plays, the Seminoles will cover. Line: North Carolina -6. Pick: Florida State 69, North Carolina 65.

SEC CHAMPIONSHIP: AT NEW ORLEANS

(1) Kentucky (32-1, 16-0) at (3) Vanderbilt (23-10, 10-6)

Tipoff: 1 p.m. TV: ABC. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 11 – Kentucky 69-63*; Feb. 25 – Kentucky 83-74. RPI: Kentucky 1, Vanderbilt 22. Analysis: Taking Vandy to win. Expect the Commodores to at least cover. Line: Kentucky -7½. Pick: Vanderbilt 71, Kentucky 70.

ATLANTIC 10 CHAMPIONSHIP: AT ATLANTIC CITY

(3) Xavier (21-11, 10-6) at (4) St. Bonaventure (19-11, 10-6)

Tipoff: 1 p.m. TV: CBS. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 14 – Xavier 77-65. RPI: Xavier 38, St. Bonaventure 76. Analysis: I am all-aboard the Andrew Nicholson bandwagon. Line: Xavier -3½. Pick: St. Bonaventure 69, Xavier 67.

BIG TEN CHAMPIONSHIP: AT INDIANAPOLIS

(1) Michigan State (26-7, 13-5) at (2) Ohio State (27-6, 13-5)

Tipoff: 3:30 p.m. TV: CBS. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 11 – Michigan State 58-48*; March 4 – Ohio State 72-70. RPI: Michigan State 4, Ohio State 7. Analysis: The whole college basketball world – not just the Spartans – should be concerned about the way OSU is playing. Line: Ohio State -1½. Pick: Ohio State 66, Michigan State 60.

*Road win

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 195-147-6

Cal May Not Be As Safe as We Think: Friday's Quick Hitters

Raphielle Johnson — Sat, 10 Mar 2012 03:38:20 -0500

Cincinnati and Louisville advance to the Big East final, marking the first time that no original members will be in the game.

1. California falls to Colorado in the Pac-12 semis, which could mean two bids for the league.
Based on conventional wisdom, Mike Montgomery's Cal Golden Bears had the best resume of any team in the Pac-12. But in a league that went 1-31 against non-conference Top 50 opponents this season, what's that really saying? Thanks to the Golden Bears' 70-59 loss to Colorado in the second Pac-12 semifinal we've got extra time to figure that out. Carlon Brown and Andre Roberson scored 17 points apiece and Austin Dufault added 15 for the Buffaloes, who are one win away from being picked to finish 10th in the conference to grabbing the Pac-12's automatic bid.

As for Cal, who shot a decent 42.9% from the field but turned the ball over 17 times and saw Colorado shoot 50% from the field? They may be in a little more trouble than many thought. Entering Friday with an RPI of 34 and a strength of schedule of 82 (non-conference SOS: 71), Cal looked to be in good shape in that regard. But this is where further inspection is needed. 16 of their 23 wins have come against teams sitting 101 or worse in the RPI, and their two Top 50 wins both came at the expense of Oregon, who was 49th at the start of the day. Their best non-conference wins: Weber State and Denver. Cal likely will find their way into the Field of 68 come Selection Sunday, but the optimism may need to be a bit more cautious at this point in time.

2. Baylor and Missouri advance to the Big 12 title game in Kansas City.
Entering the Big 12 tournament most of the talk centered around the possibility of Kansas and Missouri meeting for a third time this season, and with a one-seed possibly being on the line it was expected that the Jayhawks and Tigers would meet. But two things were learned on Friday night: Baylor, who felt a little disrespected by the talk (they did go 0-4 against those two this season), stepped up after Kansas made their run and beat the Jayhawks 81-72. Secondly, Missouri didn't seem to be in the mood for "Border War" talk, as they showed a focus that championship-caliber teams tend to display at this point in the year.

Marcus Denmon may have gone 0-for-10 from the field but Missouri beat Texas 81-67 anyway, as Kim English and Phil Pressey scored 23 points apiece and Ricardo Ratliffe added 18 and 14 boards. The Bears now get another shot at the Tigers, and with Brady Heslip coming off of a big performance in which he knocked down some key three-pointers and A.J. Walton playing well this week it's fair to say that Baylor has improved. Missouri can earn a one-seed with a victory, but Baylor could jump a seed line as well (likely tapping out at a two).

3. Miami loses Durand Scott before the game, and their loss to Florida State may have cost them an at-large bid too.
Just before the tip-off of the final quarterfinal of the night in the ACC, Miami announced that starting guard Durand Scott was ineligible to play due to the possible receipt of impermissible benefits. That certainly didn't help Jim Larranaga and his Hurricanes, who fell 82-71 to Florida State. With so many other bubble teams faltering maybe the loss doesn't kill Miami's NCAA hopes, but with the chance to distinguish themselves from the "competition" the Canes were unable to do so.

Not only did the Seminoles take care of the basketball, finishing with 11 turnovers (they average more than 16 per game), but they outscored Miami 25-9 from the foul line. Michael Snaer and Ian Miller led five FSU players in double figures with 20 and 18 points respectively, and the Seminoles put together their most efficient showing on the offensive end since their 84-70 win over Maryland on January 17th. Miami has to hope for a swift (and positive) decision regarding Scott, because the selection committee does take a team's current parts into consideration. This capped a day in Atlanta that also saw John Henson injure his left wrist and NC State may have locked up an at-large bid with their win over Virginia.

Quick Hitters

1. It was a busy day in the Big Ten and not just because of a full day of action in Indianapolis. Both Illinois and Nebraska made moves at the top of their programs, deciding that it was time to move forward without the services of Bruce Weber and Doc Sadler respectively. While neither move is a surprise, what is interesting about Tom Osborne's decision to let Sadler go is that he'd given him an extension after last season.

2. With the quarterfinal between Xavier and Dayton being thought of as almost an NCAA tournament elimination game, the Musketeers' 70-69 victory could loom large on Selection Sunday. Chris Mack's team may be safe at this point but a win over Saint Louis on Saturday wouldn't hurt their chances either.

3. Another game of that magnitude was the first game of the night session at the SEC tournament, and Ole Miss picked up a much-needed 77-72 overtime win over Tennessee. Next up for Andy Kennedy's Rebels is a matchup with Vanderbilt, and a win over the Commodores would likely lock up a bid for a team few had near the bubble just a couple weeks ago.

4. One more automatic bid to the NIT may have been accounted for as well, as WAC regular season champion Nevada fell 78-73 to Louisiana Tech in the WAC semis. David Carter's Wolf Pack find themselves in a situation similar to that of Drexel: gaudy record but the strength of schedule numbers (168 overall, 165 non-conference) could put them in a tough spot come Selection Sunday.

5. Once again it will be Long Beach State and UCSB playing for the Big West crown, and while quite a few believe that the 49ers would get in with a loss one can never be too sure. The Gauchos, who held off Cal Poly, have won the last two conference tournament titles.

6. Three players who hail from the state of Ohio scored 30 points or more in Big Ten quarterfinal games, all leading their teams to wins. Rob Wilson scored 30 points in Wisconsin's 79-71 win over Indiana, Trey Burke scored 30 in Michigan's 73-69 overtime win over Minnesota and Jared Sullinger scored 30 in Ohio State's 88-71 win over Purdue.

7. One player to watch out of the Mountain West, which should get four teams into the Big Dance, next week is New Mexico wing Demetrius Walker. In wins over Air Force and UNLV, Walker's averaging 15.5 points per game, more than double his season average. The Lobos take on top-seed San Diego State in Saturday's title game.

8. Marshall advanced to the Conference USA title game with a 73-62 win over Southern Miss, and a win by the Thundering Herd could make C-USA a three-bid team. Tom Herrion's team will have their work cut out for them however as they take on Memphis, who took UCF's resume and ripped it to shreds with an 83-52 demolition of the Knights.

9. Top-seed Akron took care of business in their MAC semifinal, beating Kent State 78-74 with Nikola Cvetinovic leading four Zips in double figures with 15 points. They'll take on three-seed Ohio, who beat two-seed Buffalo 77-74 in the other semifinal. D.J. Cooper led five Bobcats in double figures with 18 points to go along with nine assists.

10. The top two seeds in the SWAC tournament will meet on Saturday as both regular season champ Mississippi Valley State beat UAPB 71-64, and Texas Southern beat Alcorn State 60-55. Cor-J Cox led the Delta Devils with 19 points and 11 rebounds as they avenged their lone conference defeat.