Kentucky

Bracketology: Saturday Night NCAA Tournament Projection

Shawn Siegel — Sat, 16 Mar 2013 20:08:23 -0700

The latest Bracketology projection as of 11:00 PM, March 16th. One more day until Selection Sunday.

Why Pay Attention to What I Have to Say: Collegehoops.net's projections have consistently proven to be the best in the business. Over the last 5 years, Shawn Siegel is one of the Top 5 Bracketologists according to the Bracket Project. This ranking includes the likes of Joe Lunardi, Gary Parrish, Jerry Palm, and Andy Glockner.. none of whom come close.

As always, the field below is a prediction of what the committee would do as things stand today, not what they should do. This is done by taking into account standings, polls, computer rankings, and the committee's historical biases. Check out the follow up Bubble Watch for updates about teams on the NCAA Tournament Bubble, and NITology for a ranking of the best of the rest.

Notes:

Arrows indicate how many seeds a team has moved up or down since the previous update. Conference Champ.

ONE

Gonzaga 7

Louisville 3

Duke 1

Kansas 5

TWO

Indiana 10

New Mexico 2

Georgetown 9

Miami 4

THREE

Ohio St 11

Michigan St 8

Florida 6

Marquette 13

FOUR

Michigan 18

Syracuse 12

Kansas St 16

Oklahoma St 27

FIVE

UCLA 23

Saint Louis 22

Arizona 15

Wisconsin 28

SIX

Memphis 14

Pittsburgh 42

Creighton 26

North Carolina 17

SEVEN

Butler 21

VCU 25

Notre Dame 36

Colorado St 19

EIGHT

UNLV 24

Missouri 35

North Carolina St 30

Illinois 40

NINE

Oregon 49

San Diego St 32

Saint Mary's 33

Iowa St 44

TEN

Temple 41

Oklahoma 40

Villanova 52

Cincinnati 48

ELEVEN

Wichita St 37

Minnesota 34

Belmont 20

Ole Miss 50

TWELVE

Boise St 43

Akron 46

Colorado 38 / Tennessee 59

La Salle 45 / UCONN 47 California 53

THIRTEEN + 2

Bucknell 51

South Dakota St 63

New Mexico St 57

Valparaiso 58

FOURTEEN

Davidson 61

Montana 83

Florida Gulf Coast 93

Harvard 94

FIFTEEN

Northwestern St 96

Iona 97

Pacific 105

Western Kentucky 150

SIXTEEN + 2

Albany 128

Long Island 175

James Madison 182 / Liberty 288

Southern 181 / North Carolina A&T 211

Last In: California, Tennessee, La Salle, Colorado

First Out: Maryland 66, Middle Tennessee 31, Kentucky 56, Southern Miss 29

Jon Teitel's McDonald's All-American Lineup Projections

Jon Teitel — Tue, 05 Jun 2012 12:04:43 -0700

Projected lineups for all 31 teams with McDonald's High School All-Americans on their rosters,
Plus 2 teams whose All-American will no longer be with his prior team
(All-American year in parentheses)
Incoming 2012 All-Americans in Bold
Underclassmen who have declared for draft in italics
TRANSFERS IN UPPERCASE

UCLA (7)
G: Larry Drew II (2008)
G: Tyler Lamb
F: Shabazz Muhammad (2012)
F: Travis Wear (2009)
F: David Wear (2009)
BENCH: Kyle Anderson (2012), Tony Parker (2012), Joshua Smith (2010)
KEY LOSSES: Lazeric Jones

DUKE (6)
G: Quinn Cook (2011)
G: Seth Curry
F: Rasheed Sulaimon (2012)
F: Mason Plumlee (2009)
F: Ryan Kelly (2009)
BENCH: Marshall Plumlee (2011), Amile Jefferson (2012)
KEY LOSSES: Austin Rivers (2011)

NORTH CAROLINA (5)
G: Dexter Strickland (2009)
G: Reggie Bullock (2010)
G: PJ Hairston (2011)
F: James Michael McAdoo (2011)
F: Desmond Hubert
BENCH: Marcus Paige (2012)
KEY LOSSES: Tyler Zeller (2008), Kendall Marshall (2010), Harrison Barnes (2010), John Henson (2009)

NC STATE (4)
G: Rodney Purvis (2012)
G: Lorenzo Brown
F: CJ Leslie (2010)
F: Scott Wood
F: Richard Howell
BENCH: Tyler Lewis (2012), TJ Warren (2012), RALSTON TURNER
KEY LOSSES: CJ Williams

KENTUCKY (3)
G: Archie Goodwin (2012)
G: Ryan Harrow
F: Alex Poythress (2012)
F: Kyle Wiltjer (2011)
C: Nerlens Noel
KEY LOSSES: Doron Lamb (2010), Terrence Jones (2010), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (2011), Anthony Davis (2011), Marquis Teague (2011), Darius Miller

FLORIDA (3)
G: Kenny Boynton (2009)
G: Mike Rosario (2008)
F: Patric Young (2010)
F: Erik Murphy
F: Will Yeguete
KEY LOSSES: Bradley Beal (2011), Erving Walker

OHIO STATE (3)
G: Shannon Scott (2011)
G: Aaron Craft
G: Lenzelle Smith, Jr.
F: Deshaun Thomas (2010)
C: Amir Williams (2011)
KEY LOSSES: William Buford (2008), Jared Sullinger (2010)

SYRACUSE (3)
G: Michael Carter-Williams (2011)
G: Brandon Triche
F: DaJuan Coleman (2012)
F: Rakeem Christmas (2011)
F: CJ Fair
KEY LOSSES: Kris Joseph, Scoop Jardine, Fab Melo (2010), Dion Waiters

MICHIGAN STATE (3)
G: Gary Harris (2012)
G: Branden Dawson (2011)
G: Keith Appling (2010)
C: Derrick Nix
C: Adreian Payne
KEY LOSSES: Draymond Green, Brandon Wood

MEMPHIS (3)
G: Joe Jackson (2010)
G: Chris Crawford
F: Shaq Goodwin (2012)
F: Adonis Thomas (2011)
F: Tarik Black
KEY LOSSES: Will Barton

LOUISVILLE (3)
G: Wayne Blackshear (2011)
G: Peyton Siva (2009)
G: Russ Smith
F: Chane Behanan (2011)
C: Gorgui Dieng
KEY LOSSES: Kyle Kuric, Chris Smith

ARIZONA (2)
G: Nick Johnson
G: Kevin Parrom
F: Brandon Ashley (2012)
F: Grant Jerrett (2012)
F: Solomon Hill
KEY LOSSES: Kyle Fogg, Jesse Perry

INDIANA (2)
G: Yogi Ferrell (2012)
G: Jordan Hulls
G: Victor Oladipo
F: Cody Zeller (2011)
F: Christian Watford
KEY LOSSES: None

TEXAS (2)
G: Myck Kabongo (2011)
G: Julien Lewis
G: Sheldon McClellan
F: Jonathan Holmes
C: Cameron Ridley (2012)
KEY LOSSES: J'Covan Brown

OKLAHOMA STATE (2)
G: Marcus Smart (2012)
G: Markel Brown
G: Brian Williams
F: Le'Bryan Nash (2011)
F: Michael Cobbins
KEY LOSSES: Keiton Page

UNLV (2)
G: Anthony Marshall
G: Justin Hawkins
F: Anthony Bennett (2012)
F: Mike Moser
F: Carlos Lopez
BENCH: KHEM BIRCH (2011)
KEY LOSSES: Chace Stanback

PITTSBURGH (1)
G: Travon Woodall
G: Lamar Patterson
F: Dante Taylor (2009)
F: Talib Zanna
F: JJ Moore
KEY LOSSES: Ashton Gibbs, Nasir Robinson

VILLANOVA (1)
G: James Bell
G: Darrun Hilliard
F: JayVaughn Pinkston (2010)
F: Maurice Sutton
C: Mouphtaou Yarou
KEY LOSSES: Maalik Wayns (2009), Dominic Cheek (2009)

BAYLOR (1)
G: Pierre Jackson
G: Brady Heslip
G: AJ Walton
F: Cory Jefferson
F: Isaiah Austin (2012)
KEY LOSSES: Quincy Acy, Perry Jones III (2010), Quincy Miller

WASHINGTON (1)
G: Abdul Gaddy (2009)
G: CJ Wilcox
F: Desmond Simmons
F: Shawn Kemp, Jr.
C: Aziz N'Diaye
KEY LOSSES: Terrence Ross, Tony Wroten

FLORIDA STATE (1)
G: Michael Snaer (2009)
G: Ian Miller
G: Terry Whisnant II
F: Terrance Shannon
F: Okaro White
KEY LOSSES: Bernard James

CLEMSON (1)
G: Rod Hall
G: TJ Sapp
F: Milton Jennings (2009)
F: Devin Booker
F: KJ McDaniels
KEY LOSSES: Andre Young, Tanner Smith

DETROIT (1)
G: Ray McCallum (2010)
G: Jason Calliste
G: Donovan Foster
F: Doug Anderson
F: Evan Bruinsma
KEY LOSSES: Eli Holman, Chase Simon, Nick Minnerath

LSU (1)
G: Andre Stringer
G: Anthony Hickey
F: Johnny O'Bryant III (2011)
F: Eddie Ludwig
F: Jalen Courtney
KEY LOSSES: Justin Hamilton, RALSTON TURNER

KANSAS (1)
G: Travis Releford
G: Elijah Johnson
F: Perry Ellis (2012)
F: Kevin Young
C: Jeff Withey
KEY LOSSES: Tyshawn Taylor, Thomas Robinson

PROVIDENCE (1)
G: Kris Dunn (2012)
G: Vincent Council
G: Bryce Cotton
F: LaDontae Henton
F: Kadeem Batts
KEY LOSSES: GERARD COLEMAN

GEORGIA (1)
G: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (2011)
G: Vincent Williams
F: Donte Williams
F: Marcus Thornton
F: Nemanja Djurisic
KEY LOSSES: Gerald Robinson

MISSISSIPPI (1)
G: Jelan Kendrick (2010)
G: Nick Williams
G: Jarvis Summers
F: Murphy Holloway
F: Reginald Buckner
KEY LOSSES: Terrance Henry

RUTGERS (1)
G: Eli Carter
G: Myles Mack
G: Jerome Seagears
F: Wally Judge (2009)
F: Dane Miller
KEY LOSSES: None

MISSOURI (1)
G: Michael Dixon
G: Phil Pressey
G: KEION BELL
F: ALEX ORIAKHI (2009)
F: Laurence Bowers
KEY LOSSES: Marcus Denmon, Ricardo Ratliffe, Kim English

ALABAMA (1)
G: Trevor Releford
G: Trevor Lacey
G: Levi Randolph
F: Devonta Pollard (2012)
F: Nick Jacobs?
KEY LOSSES: JaMychal Green (2008)

MISSISSIPPI STATE (0)
G: Jalen Steele
G: Shaun Smith
G: Tyson Cunningham
F: Roquez Johnson
C: Wendell Lewis
KEY LOSSES: RODNEY HOOD, Dee Bost, Renardo Sidney (2009), Arnett Moultrie

CONNECTICUT (0)
G: Shabazz Napier
G: Ryan Boatright
F: Tyler Olander
F: DeAndre Daniels
F: Niels Giffey
KEY LOSSES: ALEX ORIAKHI (2009), Jeremy Lamb, Andre Drummond, ROSCOE SMITH

Kentucky Wins Eighth National Title

Raphielle Johnson — Tue, 03 Apr 2012 10:19:44 -0700

The looks on their faces seemed to be more of relief than elation. Pegged as one of two overwhelming favorites in October (North Carolina being the other), and the prohibitive favorite entering the NCAA tournament, a season without a national title would have been a disappointment for the Kentucky Wildcats.

Mission accomplished.

Doron Lamb scored a game-high 22 points and Most Outstanding Player Anthony Davis left his fingerprints on the game in spite of a 1-for-10 shooting performance, helping lead Kentucky to a 67-59 win over Kansas in New Orleans. The win gives Kentucky their eighth in school history and first since 1998, and it's also the first for head coach John Calipari.

"Now I can get about my business of coaching basketball and getting these players to be the best that they can be, helping young people," said Calipari when asked what the title meant to him.

"You know, create better lives for themselves and their families, and also helping them prepare for life after basketball. I can get on with that. I don't have to hear the drama. I can just coach now."

The reason why he can "just coach now": a group that displayed a chemistry many thought impossible with so many having the potential to make a quick exit to the next level. Talent's great, and this Kentucky team had plenty of it, but a team doesn't go 38-2 and win a national title on talent alone.

Lamb knocked down a pair of key 3-pointers in the second half to hold off the first Kansas rally, extending the lead to 54-38 with 10:04 remaining. Kansas would get as close as six points but wouldn't close the gap any further, with Kentucky's stellar first half establishing a distance they were unable to overcome.

Thomas Robinson led the Jayhawks in what will most likely be his final collegiate game with 18 points and 17 rebounds, and for the junior to put up that kind of line on a night many felt he struggled says something about the effort he gave.

Kentucky's length inside has been a problem for teams all season long and it was for Robinson as he finished 6 of 17 from the field, but he and Jeff Withey kept plugging. Withey finished with seven rebounds and four blocked shots but went 2 of 8 from the field. As a team Kansas shot 35% from the field and 33% from two, nullifying a 5 of 11 night from beyond the arc.

"A lot of times I tried to go to my left shoulder on Jones, but I could see Anthony skying over top of him," said Robinson. "So it was kind of tough for me to even pass it to Jeff or try to get a shot up. [Davis] definitely impacted the game for a stretch on the defensive end."

Davis may have had a poor night from a shooting standpoint but the freshman from Chicago did everything else in the paint for Kentucky. He finished with 16 rebounds and six blocked shots and five assists on the night, and with Lamb and Marquis Teague (14 points) providing the bulk of the offense all he really had to do was produce in the paint.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist added 11 points, Terrence Jones chipped in with nine and seven rebounds and senior guard Darius Miller gave Kentucky good minutes off the bench, a formula that's worked all season long. Elijah Johnson and Tyshawn Taylor combined to score 32 points on the night for Kansas but they needed 30 shots from the field to do so, making just 13.

The question for both teams now is whether they'll have enough in 2012-13 to make a return to the Final Four happen, and the answer would be 'yes'. Kansas may be losing Taylor and (likely) Robinson, but the other key players from Monday night are expected back and Ben McLemore will be eligible as well. If anything was learned from this season it's that Bill Self's program should never be counted out of the national title discussion.

As for Kentucky, they'll have personnel openings are there's the possibility that all six of their main rotation guys head off to the NBA. But Calipari will reload with another potent recruiting class led (right now) by Archie Goodwin and Alex Poythress, and Kyle Wiltjer should be better equipped for major minutes as a sophomore.

The question is whether or not they can come together as this group did, as the national champs shared a chemistry seldom seen amongst such a young group.

What Can We Learn from the November Meeting?

Raphielle Johnson — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 23:35:30 -0700

The question of what can be learned from a prior regular season meeting can be a tricky one, especially when there's been so much time in between meetings. No. 1 seed Kentucky (37-2) and No. 2 seed Kansas (32-6) will meet on Monday night for the national title, a rematch of their November 15th meeting at the Champions Classic in New York.

Kentucky won that game 75-65, scoring 47 points in the second half of a game that was tied at 28 at the break. While both teams are far different outfits, with the Wildcat freshmen playing just their second collegiate game and Kansas having some players who are important now adjusting to their new roles on that night, there are some things that can be taken away from the Kentucky win.

Here are some thoughts from that first meeting, and how they apply to what each team will need to do in order to win on Monday night.

Kansas Thoughts

1. Tyshawn Taylor
There's no denying the fact that the senior point guard will need to play very well if Kansas is to win its fourth NCAA title. Turnovers have been a talking point when it comes to Taylor for much of the season, but he did not turn the ball over once in the first meeting with Kentucky. The concern on Monday night when looking at the box score from the November meeting: making shots in the lane.

Nine of Taylor's 13 shots came by way of either a layup or dunk, yet he made just two of them. Overall Taylor shot 3 of 13 from the field, scoring 22 points due to a 15 of 17 night from the foul line. It's tough to see him getting 17 free throw attempts on Monday night, meaning that Taylor will need to do a better job of converting the looks he finds in the lane.

With Anthony Davis, who will likely draw Jeff Withey defensively, lurking inside that's easier said than done. And to be fair the missed layups issue wasn't Taylor's alone back in November. As a team the Jayhawks made 7 of 29 layups (14 of 37 overall when counting dunks) according to the CBSSports.com shot chart from the game, a line that simply won't get it done in the rematch.

2. Elijah Johnson and Travis Releford
These two came up big against Ohio State on Saturday night, and Johnson's the reason why the Jayhawks were able to get past Purdue in the Round of 32. Yet they combined to shoot 5 of 17 from the field against Kentucky, scoring 12 points. Releford had the toughest time of the two when it comes to adjusting to Kentucky's length as he accounted for five of Kansas' 14 turnovers.

But in five tournament games Releford has accounted for just three turnovers. Kentucky's a different class of opponent than the five teams the Jayhawks have faced to this point due in large part to their size and wingspan at all five positions. But Releford taking better care of the basketball is a good trend to ride into the title game. The last time Releford's had a turnover percentage of 50% or worse was Kansas' win over Baylor back on February 8. Since then the number's been no higher than 20%; it was 55.5% against Kentucky back in November.

Johnson made just one of his six jumpshots on the night, and for the season 59.5% of his shot attempts come from beyond the arc. But he's been better down the stretch than he was at Madison Square Garden, which could bode well for the Jayhawks. In that game Johnson posted an effective field goal percentage of 31.8%; in four of the five tournament games he's posted an eFG% of 60% or better. Johnson's shooting better and Releford's taking better care of the basketball, and both of those things will need to happen on Monday night.

3. Thomas Robinson
With this being the first match-up of First Team AP All-Americans in a title game since 1999 (Duke's Elton Brand and Connecticut's Richard Hamilton) it's obvious that Robinson and Davis will receive a lot of hype, and rightfully so. The question for Robinson will be how he deals with Kentucky's interior length, and that also includes sophomore Terrence Jones.

Robinson will likely see both players, with Jones possibly getting more time in an attempt to keep Davis out of foul trouble. But regardless of which one he's being guarded by, the Big 12 Player of the Year has to do a better job of scoring around the rim than he did in the first meeting. Robinson missed six shots around the rim, and for the night he made 5 of 12 from the field. On the season Robinson is making 51% of his 2-point shots, and he's been around that number just once (53.8% vs. Detroit) in the tournament.

That's understandable given the amount of attention Robinson's received from opposing defenses, so if Jeff Withey can make Kentucky pay with a couple baskets early things could open up for Robinson. That being said, the Wildcats may be willing to gamble on Withey being able to beat them as he did Baylor in their meeting in Waco. Either way, Robinson will need to score more than the 11 points he tallied in November if Kansas is to win.

Kentucky Thoughts

1. Marquis Teague
Similar to Taylor, the freshman from Indianapolis will be a key figure in the action at the Mercedes Benz Superdome. As it was for Kentucky as a team back in November, the first meeting was a tale of two halves for Teague. Teague turned the ball over six times in the first half, and it's no coincidence that the Wildcats played better as he took better care of the basketball (zero turnovers in the second half).

On the season Teague has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.8 and for the tournament his ratio is at 2.0, which is a far cry from what he put forth at MSG. Teague was similar to Taylor in regards to shots around the basket, as he also struggled in November. Teague made 2 of 7 layups and dunks, with wild forays to the basket tending to lead to either misses or the turnovers discussed above.

With experience has come maturity for Teague, and if he can continue on that path Monday night both he and his team should be able to reap the rewards. Attack the lane with a purpose, and be sure to not kill his dribble without knowing what his next move will be, and Teague should be productive at the point.

2. Terrence Jones and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
There aren't many players in America who are scrutinized as much as Jones, with his demeanor being the focus of many. When he's dialed in Jones is one of the toughest match-ups in the country, as he can finish above the rim and knock down perimeter jumpers. And he played well in the first meeting, accounting for 15 points, seven rebounds and three blocked shots.

Similar to Jones, Kidd-Gilchrist was all over the box score against Kansas with 12 points, nine rebounds, four assists and three blocked shots. His versatility on the defensive end lends itself to John Calipari being able to give him nearly any defensive assignment on the floor. Kidd-Gilchrist saw some time defensively against Peyton Siva on Saturday, with his length giving Siva trouble in the first half, and he could be called on to defend Tyshawn Taylor some on Monday night.

The one issue for Kidd-Gilchirst in the first meeting were the five turnovers, a number he hasn't matched since January 3 against UALR when he had six. MKG finished Saturday's game with four turnovers in what was a somewhat frustrating night following an outstanding weekend in Atlanta the week prior. If Jones and Kidd-Gilchrist are able to leave their prints on the game in a variety of areas, Kentucky is going to be tough to beat. If one (or both) struggle, then the door opens even wider for Kansas.

3. Anthony Davis
Regardless of what the freshman from Chicago may have said at the end of Kentucky's win over Louisville on Saturday night, the fact of the matter is that he took over against Louisville. 18 points, 14 rebounds and five blocked shots for Davis, who has won every major Player of the Year award except for one (Michigan State's Draymond Green won the NABC's award).

14 points, seven blocked shots and six rebounds is what Davis put up in the November meeting, and that doesn't take into effect the number of shots he changed on that night (see Kansas' numbers on layups and dunks above for an idea of that). The task for Davis is a simple one on Monday night: stay out of foul trouble, whether he's on Robinson or Withey to start. The battle between he and Withey features two of the best shot-blockers in the country, with Davis leading in blocks per game and Withey in block percentage.

Of the two Davis is the better offensive weapon, but it isn't as if Kentucky has to run a lot of plays specifically for him. Four of his six made field goals in the first meeting were either layups or dunks, and he's fifth on the team in possession percentage (19.1%) according to Ken Pomeroy's numbers. Davis being a force on both ends of the floor would likely mean an eight national title for Kentucky, something the Jayhawks must make sure doesn't happen.

Resources Used: CBSSports.com, statsheet.com and kenpom.com

Kentucky vs Kansas: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 06:54:03 -0700

(1) Kentucky vs. (2) Kansas: National Championship

Records

Kentucky 37-2, 16-0 SEC

Kansas 32-6, 16-2 Big 12

Time: 9:23 p.m. Monday

TV: CBS

Location: Louisiana Superdome in New Orleans

Tournament Results

Kentucky def. Western Kentucky, 81-66; def. Iowa State, 87-71; def. Indiana, 102-90; def. Baylor, 82-70; def. Louisville, 69-61

Kansas def. Detroit, 65-50; def. Purdue, 63-60; def. North Carolina State, 60-57; def. North Carolina, 80-67; def. Ohio State, 64-62

Rankings

Kentucky No. 1 AP; No. 1 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

Kansas No. 6 AP; No. 6 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Kentucky 1

Kansas 5

Regular-season results

Nov. 15 – Kentucky def. Kansas, 75-65

Line: Kentucky -7 (O/U 139½)

Players to Watch

Kentucky: F Anthony Davis, 6-10 Fr. (14.3 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 4.6 bpg); F Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, 6-7 Fr. (12 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 48.6% FG); F Terrence Jones, 6-9 So. (12.6 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 50.1% FG); G Doron Lamb, 6-4 So. (13.6 ppg, 47.1% 3s); G Marquise Teague, 6-2 Fr. (10 ppg, 4.8 apg); G/F Darius Miller, 6-8 Sr. (10 ppg, 2.2 apg, 37.8% 3s); F Kyle Wiltjer, 6-9 Fr. (5.1 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 43% 3s).

Kansas: F Thomas Robinson, 6-10 Jr. (17.7 ppg, 11.8 rpg, 51.2% FG); G Tyshawn Taylor, 6-3 Sr. (16.7 ppg, 4.7 apg, 1.4 spg); C Jeff Withey, 7-0 Jr. (9.2 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 3.5 bpg); G Elijah Johnson, 6-4 Jr. (10 ppg, 3.6 apg, 1.5 spg); G Travis Releford, 6-6 Jr. (8.5 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 50% FG); G Conner Teahan, 6-6 Sr. (5.7 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 34% 3s); F Kevin Young, 6-8 Jr. (3.6 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 49% FG).

Why Each Team Dangerous

Kentucky: The Wildcats are extraordinarily balanced with six players averaging double figures. Even when Kidd-Gilchrist and Jones struggled in Saturday’s win over Louisville, others stepped up. Miller scored 13 off the bench, Wiltjer hit two big buckets and Teague had eight points and five assists. Kentucky shot 57 percent in the victory. For the season, UK shoots 47 percent from the floor. Kentucky plays very good defense in the paint, averaging 8.5 blocks per game, which leads the country. Their transition offense is as good as anyone’s in the nation.

Kansas: Robinson is as good and plays as hard as any player in the country. He’s capable of controlling the paint, even against a frontcourt as good as Kentucky’s. Taylor is a good floor leader and is strong scoring threat. Along with Robinson, Withey provides great interior defense and if Johnson is hot, the Jayhawks are really tough to handle. Kansas held Ohio State to 20-of-59 from the field and 8-of-22 from the 3-point line in Saturday’s win and out-rebounded the Buckeyes 41-30, including 12 offensive boards. KU has trailed in every game of the tournament and has shown great resilience. It’s probably time to just crown Bill Self the best coach in college basketball. The job he’s done this season has been remarkable and he’ll have the Jayhawks ready to play on Monday.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Kentucky: There isn’t much the Wildcats do poorly. They are slightly above average in their half-court offense and their transition defense. They were out-rebounded by Louisville, 37-32, and gave up 16 offensive boards and that has been a sore spot at times. Robinson could give them fits in the offensive glass. Kentucky doesn’t force a lot of turnovers typically and gets a steal on only 9.2 percent of opponents’ possessions. UK would likely have the youngest starting lineup ever to win a national title, but immaturity hasn’t been a problem to this point.

Kansas: This is the least talented Kansas team in a decade, making its run truly remarkable. Robinson and Taylor score about 46.4 percent of the team’s points, so there’s not a lot of balance and almost no depth. Talent- and skill-wise, Kansas will be outmatched by the Wildcats. The Jayhawks are not a great shooting team, making just 34.5 percent of their 3-point attempts and they score just 23.2 percent of their points from behind the arc. They shoot just 69.2 percent from the foul line, although they hit some clutch ones against OSU. At times, KU is turnover prone, but that’s gotten better.

The Bottom Line: It’s been a great college basketball season. Unfortunately, it’s not likely to end with a bang. Kentucky will stretch its lead throughout the game and win by double-figures.

The Pick: Kentucky 71, Kansas 60

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 208-162-6

NCAA Tournament Interviews: Kentucky's John Calipari

Jon Teitel — Thu, 29 Mar 2012 09:48:48 -0700

Just before the NCAA tournament began CHN writer Jon Teitel spent some time with Kentucky head coach John Calipari, whose Wildcats take on Louisville on Saturday in a national semifinal. Calipari has won more than 500 games at three stops: Massachusetts, Memphis and Kentucky.

Jon Teitel: In 2009 you were hired at Kentucky, where you became the second coach to ever lead three different schools to a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament. How have you been able to have so much success despite coaching at several different schools?

John Calipari: By making each program about the players first. Everywhere we have been we have focused on helping our players reach their dreams. If we are helping them become better players and people, what do you think that is going to do for us? In turn, they drag us along the way and help us win.

JT: You set a record by having five players selected in the first round of the 2010 NBA Draft. How crucial is recruiting to a coach's success?

JC: A lot of people did not like it when I said it then but I will say it again: having five players selected in the first round of the draft was one of the most important days in this program's history. This is about them reaching their dreams. Obviously that has an effect on who wants to come here, as kids know that we are developing them for the rest of their lives. One of the reasons that I was brought here is because I can recruit the best of the best. A couple of years ago I said that there were three keys to winning: really good players, really good players, and really good players!

2011 NCAA Tournament

JT: Brandon Knight went scoreless for the first 39 minutes before making a layup with two seconds left in a two-point win over Princeton. Where does that rank among the most clutch shots you have ever seen?

JC: I do not get into ranking shots and saying this one was better than that one, but I will say that is what winners do in those situations. At the time I did not know he was 0-for-the-game (I thought he had hit one shot), but I had all the faith and confidence in the world for him. He is not afraid to make a play. Guys like him are not afraid to miss.

JT: Knight continued his heroics by making a 15-foot jumper with five seconds left in a two-point win over Ohio State. Did you start to feel that you had a team of destiny?

JC: Our guys had a refuse-to-lose attitude. We had been in those situations before. I cannot remember how many games we lost on the last shot in January and February, but it felt like every game. Everybody was going crazy and saying that we were going to get bounced in the first round of the tourney. We put ourselves in a position to make that shot because we bought in defensively, Josh Harrellson transformed his body and became a new player, Knight grew into his position at point guard, and DeAndre Liggins dove on the floor for loose balls. We played for each other and grew together at the right time.

JT: Tournament MOP Kemba Walker scored 18 points in a one-point win by eventual champion Connecticut. You obviously know how to win games in March, but what will it take to get over the hump and finally win a national title?

JC: I do not take this as life or death, and the reason is because you die a lot. I have the peace of mind that I am doing the best I can and am doing it for the kids. If I do those things, I can live with myself and know that we are doing right.

JT: You are famous for popularizing the dribble-drive motion offense, which was invented by former Pepperdine coach Vance Walberg. What is the key to making it work, and why has it been so successful for you?

JC: It unleashes players and gives them the freedom to take their man to the hoop on any given play. Face it: every kid wants to put up scoring numbers and this offense allows for it, but this offense is not made for everyone. I cannot hide you in this offense. It reinvigorated me because it got me to re-think the game and study it again. The offense challenges the players and prepares them for almost anything on the court.

JT: You have written several books about basketball ("Refuse to Lose", "Basketball's Half-Court Offense", and "Bounce Back: Overcoming Setbacks to Succeed in Business and in Life"). What is the most important lesson you hope to teach people?

JC: To dream and write your own story. My grandfather was a coal miner and my grandparents did not even speak English when they came to America. Now I am the basketball coach at Kentucky. It is like "what?" Do not be afraid to dream big things.

Calipari is on Jon's list of best coaches in both Atlantic 10 and Conference USA history.

Atlantic 10
Charlotte: Bobby Lutz (1998-2009) 199-146, 5 NCAA tourneys, 1 conference title
Dayton: Don Donoher (1964-1989) 437-275, 8 NCAA tourneys, 1 NIT title
Duquesne: Chick Davies (1924-1943, 1946-1948) 314-106, 1 NCAA tourney, 3 NIT appearances, 1 conference title
Fordham: John Bach (1949-1968) 263-193, 2 NCAA tourneys, 1 conference title
George Washington: William Reinhart (1935-1966) 319-237, 2 NCAA tourneys, 2 conference titles, 1-time conference COY
La Salle: Ken Loeffler (1949-1955) 144-28, 2 NCAA tourneys, 1 NCAA title, 1 NIT title
Massachusetts: John Calipari (1988-1996) 189-70, 5 NCAA tourneys, 5 conference titles, 1-time national COY, 3-time conference COY
Rhode Island: Frank Keaney (1920-1948) 401-124, 8 conference titles
Richmond: Dick Tarrant (1981-1993) 239-126, 5 NCAA tourneys, 5 conference titles, 4-time conference COY
Saint Louis: Eddie Hickey (1947-1958) 211-89, 2 NCAA tourneys, 3 conference titles, 1 NIT title, 2-time conference COY
St. Bonaventure: Larry Weise (1961-1973) 202-90, 2 NCAA tourneys
St. Joseph's: Jack Ramsay (1955-1966) 234-72, 7 NCAA tourneys, 7 conference titles
Temple: John Chaney (1982-2006) 516-253, 17 NCAA tourneys, 8 conference titles, 2-time national COY, 5-time conference COY
Xavier: Pete Gillen (1985-1994) 202-75, 7 NCAA tourneys, 6 conference titles, 5-time conference COY

Conference USA
East Carolina: Tom Quinn (1966-1974) 102-106, 1 NCAA tourney, 1-time conference COY
Houston: Guy Lewis (1956-1986) 592-279, 14 NCAA tourneys, 3 conference titles, 3-time national COY
Marshall: Cam Henderson (1935-1955) 362-160, 3 conference titles, 1 NAIB title
Memphis: John Calipari (2000-2009) 214-68, 6 NCAA tourneys, 5 conference titles, 1 NIT title, 2-time national COY, 3-time conference COY
Rice: Buster Brannon (1938-1942, 1945-1946) 85-37, 2 NCAA tourneys, 2 conference titles
SMU: EO "Doc" Hayes (1947-1967) 299-192, 6 NCAA tourneys, 8 conference titles
Southern Miss: MK Turk (1976-1996) 300-267, 2 NCAA tourneys, 1 conference title, 1 NIT title
Tulane: Perry Clark (1989-2000) 185-145, 3 NCAA tourneys, 4 conference titles, 1-time national COY
Tulsa: Nolan Richardson (1980-1985) 119-37, 2 NCAA tourneys, 3 conference titles, 1 NIT title, 2-time conference COY
UAB: Gene Bartow (1979-1996) 350-193, 9 NCAA tourneys, 3 conference titles, 3-time conference COY
UCF: Kirk Speraw (1993-2010) 279-233, 4 NCAA tourneys, 1 conference titles, 1-time conference COY
UTEP: Don Haskins (1961-1999) 719-353, 14 NCAA tourneys, 9 conference titles, 1 NCAA title, 2-time conference COY

Kentucky vs Louisville: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Wed, 28 Mar 2012 06:47:58 -0700

(1) Kentucky vs. (4) Louisville

Records

Kentucky 36-2, 16-0 SEC

Louisville 30-9, 10-8 Big East

Time: 6:09 p.m. Saturday

TV: CBS

Location: Louisiana Superdome in New Orleans

Winner will face: (2) Ohio State or (2) Kansas, Monday in National Championship

Tournament Results

Kentucky def. Western Kentucky, 81-66; def. Iowa State, 87-71; def. Indiana 102-90; def. Baylor, 82-70

Louisville def. Davidson, 69-62; def. New Mexico 59-56; def. Michigan State, 57-44; def. Florida, 72-68

Regular-season Meeting

Dec. 31 – At Kentucky 69, Louisville 62

Rankings

Kentucky No. 1 AP; No. 1 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

Louisville No. 17 AP; No. 18 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Kentucky 1

Louisville 9

Line: Kentucky -9 (O/U 137)

Players to Watch

Kentucky: F Anthony Davis, 6-10 Fr. (14.3 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 4.6 bpg); F Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, 6-7 Fr. (12 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 48.6% FG); F Terrence Jones, 6-9 So. (12.6 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 1.8 bpg). Kidd-Gilchrist saved his best for the most important time of the year. In two regional games in Atlanta, MKG had 43 points and 15 rebounds in a pair of wins over Indiana and Baylor.

Louisville: G Peyton Siva, 6-0 Jr. (9.1 ppg, 5.6 apg, 1.7 apg); C Gorgui Dieng, 6-11 So. (9.2 ppg, 9 rpg, 3.2 bpg); F Chane Behanan, 6-6 Fr. (9.5 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 51.3% FG). Behanan has been a beast on the boards in the tournament. In four games, he has 31 rebounds to go along with 56 points, four steals, three assists and three blocks.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Kentucky: In their regular-season win over Louisville, the Wildcats out-rebounded the Cardinals 49-28, including 14 offensive rebounds. Kentucky will have a significant advantage inside with Davis, Jones and Kidd-Gilchrist, who had 24 points and 19 rebounds last time out against the Cardinals. For the season, UK out-rebounds opponents by 7.1 per game. The Cats also lead the country with 8.6 blocks per game. Few teams – if any – are as good in transition and Kentucky’s half-court offense has improved as the season has progressed. Defensively, UK allows opponents to shoot just 37.5 percent from the floor and 31.5 percent from the 3-point line.

Louisville: The Cardinals win with defense. Opponents have shot just 80-of-214 (37.4 percent) overall and 22-of-83 (26.5 percent) from behind the 3-point arc against Louisville in the tournament and it has forced 52 turnovers, including 21 steals. The Cards held Kentucky to 17-of-57 the first time around and forced 20 turnovers and got 12 steals. U of L’s offense is balanced with six players averaging at least 9.1 points. It shot 45 percent from the floor and 37.5 percent from 3 in Saturday’s win over Florida.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Kentucky: In the win over Louisville, the Cats shot just 29.8 percent from the floor and made just 3-of-16 3s. They’ll have to be better than that this time. Kentucky got to the foul line 43 times in that game. However, opponents shot more free throws than the Wildcats did this season. At times, Kentucky has been prone to turnovers and Louisville forces a ton. Depth could be an issue, particularly if they get into foul trouble.

Louisville: The Cardinals sometimes struggle to score. Even in tournament wins over New Mexico and Michigan State, Louisville managed just 116 combined points and shot 43-of-103 combined. The Cardinals are just plus-1.6 in the rebounding category for the season. That could be deadly against Kentucky. Louisville also turns the ball over 14.1 times per game.

The Bottom Line: Pitino has seen Kentucky once and he has had a week to prepare for the Wildcats. He’ll find a way to slow them down. Enough for his Cardinals to pull off the upset? Probably not. But his gameplan should be enough to keep them close.

The Pick: Kentucky 73, Louisville 66

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 207-161-6

Kentucky vs Baylor: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Sun, 25 Mar 2012 08:50:53 -0700

(1) Kentucky vs. (3) Baylor: South Region

Records

Kentucky 35-2, 16-0 SEC (Regular-season Conference Champions; At large)

Baylor 30-7, 12-6 Big 12 (At large)

Time: 2:20 p.m. Sunday

TV: CBS

Location: Georgia Dome in Atlanta

Winner will face: (4) Louisville or (7) Florida, Saturday in New Orleans

Tournament Results

Kentucky def. Western Kentucky, 81-66; def. Iowa State, 87-71; def. Indiana, 102-90

Baylor def. South Dakota State, 68-60; def. Colorado, 80-63; def. Xavier 75-70

Rankings

Kentucky No. 1 AP; No. 1 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

Baylor No. 9 AP; No. 10 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Kentucky 2

Baylor 9

Line: Kentucky -7 (O/U 147)

Players to Watch

Kentucky: F Anthony Davis, 6-10 Fr. (14.3 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 4.6 bpg); F Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, 6-7 Fr. (11.5 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 1.1 spg); G Doron Lamb, 6-4 So. (13.4 ppg, 1.5 apg, 47% 3s). Lamb’s perimeter game has been a key to the Wildcats’ tremendous season. On Friday, Lamb went 6-for-10 from the field, hit his only 3-point shot and all eight of his free throws for 21 big points to help UK advance past rival Indiana.

Baylor: F Quincy Acy, 6-7 Sr. (11.5 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 56.7% FG); G Pierre Jackson, 5-10 Jr. (13.5 ppg, 5.8 apg, 1.8 spg); F Perry Jones III, 6-11 So. (13.4 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 49.4% FG). Acy was a monster in Friday’s win over Xavier. After scoring 11 points in the Bears’ first two NCAA games, the senior went for 20 points, 15 rebounds, three assists, a block and a steal in the triumph.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Kentucky: On top of having the nation’s best interior defense and transition offense, Kentucky showed it can shoot the basketball in Friday’s win. A relative weakness early in the season, the Wildcats ran their half-court offense efficiently, hitting half of their 3-point shots (5-of-10) and 94.6 percent of their free throws (35-of-37). There’s not much this team doesn’t do well.

Baylor: The Bears are one of two teams in the tournament – along with North Carolina – that can stack up with Kentucky’s size and skill. When at its best, Baylor is as deep in talent as any team in the country. The Bears also shoot well. On Friday, they shot 50.9 percent from the field and made 12-of-14 free throws. For the season, they are shooting 47 percent from the floor, 38.5 percent from behind the 3-point line and 75.1 percent at the free throw line. All three rank in the top 32 in the country. Baylor out-rebounds its opponents by 5.4 boards per game. Defensively, the Bears force 14.2 errors and get 7.6 steals per game.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Kentucky: The Wildcats make only 6 3-pointers per game, so if they fall behind, they could struggle to shoot themselves back into a game. Kentucky forces just 11.6 turnovers per game and, at times, it has had trouble with turnovers in the past, although it had just six against Indiana. The Wildcats aren’t very deep. Only one Wildcat played more than six minutes off the Kentucky bench on Friday. Against a big, physical Baylor squad, foul trouble could be an issue for the Cats.

Baylor: The Bears are prone lapses, sometimes in short spurts and sometimes game-long. They are also prone to turnovers, coughing up the ball 13.8 times per game. Baylor has allowed opponents to get to the foul line 638 times and on Friday Xavier shot 24 against them while Kentucky got to the stripe 37 times against Indiana. Baylor’s interior defense sometimes lacks aggression. On Friday, Musketeer center Kenny Frease was 7-for-10 from the field for 18 points. Frease is no Anthony Davis.

The Bottom Line: After Kentucky’s performance on Friday, I don’t have the guts to pick an upset. But the Wildcats are going to get Baylor’s best shot. The Bears will go on some runs and will push the Wildcats. This should be one of the best games of the tournament so far.

The Pick: Kentucky 80, Baylor 77

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 215-171-6 (Through Regional Semis)

Friday's Sweet 16 Thoughts

Raphielle Johnson — Thu, 22 Mar 2012 12:59:20 -0700

Thursday's Sweet 16 Preview

When compared to Thursday's slate the four matchups on Friday may leave a little to be desired for the casual fan, with a double-digit seed playing in three of the four games. The lone exception is Kentucky/Indiana, who staged a classic back in December. Here are some thoughts on the four games to be played in Atlanta and St. Louis.

South Region (Atlanta)

(3) Baylor vs. (10) Xavier (7:15 PM, CBS)
When looking solely at the match-ups in the paint the battle between the Bears and Musketeer could look a lot like Baylor's 2010 Sweet 16 game against Saint Mary's. Scott Drew's team had the edge in terms of both depth and size as the overwhelmed Omar Samhan and company to advance to the Elite 8. Baylor enjoys an advantage inside against Xavier as well, with the biggest question being which Kenny Frease shows up: the one who struggled mightily against St. Bonaventure in the A-10 tournament title, or the one who played well in wins over Notre Dame and Lehigh last weekend?

With the Musketeers having two of the best guards remaining in the field in Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons, they're going to need Frease, Andre Walker and even Travis Taylor to hold their own in the paint. The word "warrior" fits Baylor's Quincy Acy perfectly, and in Perry Jones III and Quincy Miller the Bears have two likely lottery picks whenever they decide to head to the next level. Cory Jefferson and Anthony Jones also factor into the rotation, and if they can rebound at a solid rate (Baylor rebounds 38% of their misses) it could be a rough evening for the Xavier bigs.

Clearly Xavier's chances of winning lie on the shoulders of Holloway and Lyons, and if those two can control the flow of the game it's more than possible that they win. Both shoot 43% from the field with Lyons being the better three-point shooter, and they'll need to post solid assist-to-turnover ratios as well. Dezmine Wells, who sprained his ankle in the win over Lehigh, will also factor into the Musketeer attack. Baylor's guards have improved as the season has progressed, which should make for a fun match-up on the perimeter.

Brady Heslip, nicknamed the "Downtown Canadian", shot the ball extremely well in Albuquerque last week and it will be interesting to see if he can continue to do so with the sight lines of the Georgia Dome. Pierre Jackson is their best playmaker and A.J. Walton has increased his impact down the stretch. As a team Baylor has a slightly better A/T ratio (1.08 to Xavier's 1.04) but they turn the ball over on a higher percentage of their possessions (20.5% to 18.6%). If Frease and company can hold their own inside Xavier has a shot, making that the biggest key to tomorrow's game.

(1) Kentucky vs. (4) Indiana (9:45 PM, CBS)
Lost count of how many times ESPNU has shown the replay of their December 10th meeting in Bloomington this week? Can't blame you if you have, but with that being the Wildcats' lone regular season defeat (losing to Vanderbilt in the SEC tournament final) there's good reason why many would look back to that game for keys on how to beat Kentucky. But to be fair John Calipari's team is a different group now than they were back in December, with the play of Terrence Jones and Marquis Teague being two reasons why.

Teague, who played well in the regular season meeting between the two, has improved in regards to knowing when to establish his own offense and when to get Kentucky's other weapons involved. The Indianapolis native has a better A/T ratio (1.7) than any of Indiana's guards, and unless the Hoosiers give the responsibility of defending Teague to Victor Oladipo it remains to be seen who can slow him down. Jones' issue is similar to that of Baylor's Perry Jones III. When he's engaged and fully invested in the action, he's very difficult to slow down. And when paired with Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, that trio can wreak havoc when clicking on all cylinders.

Indiana was able to get Davis in foul trouble, limiting his impact on the game. Davis can clearly move his feet on the perimeter but it wouldn't be a surprise if the Hoosiers looked to run some early pick and roll action with Cody Zeller to not just take Davis away from the rim but to also see if they can pick up an early foul (or two) on the phenom. Zeller will be a key figure for the Hoosiers but so will Christian Watford, whose ability to play on the perimeter should match up well with Kidd-Gilchrist. The key for Watford will be to hit the glass; playing outside is fine but not at the expense of those "tough" plays in the paint.

Kentucky's the better team on the glass and they're the more efficient of the two both offensively and defensively as well. But IU won the first meeting by being the more efficient team in spite of 18 turnovers, a result of their ability to hold their own on the glass (30-30) and shooting 60% from three. Clearly if those things happen again Indiana will be in good position to win, but that's asking an awful lot of the Hoosiers. Jordan Hulls and Will Sheehey will be key figures on the perimeter, with Indiana needing to win the backcourt battle if they're to advance.

Midwest Region (St. Louis)

(1) North Carolina vs. (13) Ohio (7:47 PM, TBS)
North Carolina hasn't enjoyed the greatest of luck with wrists this month, first having John Henson injure his left wrist during the ACC tournament and then having Kendall Marshall break his right wrist against Creighton on Sunday. Marshall's injury is the one to watch approaching Friday night's battle with Ohio, with it being unlikely that the sophomore plays despite getting the cast removed. Whether or not Marshall plays however, UNC is going to have a heck of a time figuring out how to slow down Bobcat point guard D.J. Cooper.

Cooper leads the Bobcats in scoring and assists while also grabbing 3.8 rebounds per game, and with an A/T ratio of 2.0 he's a more than sound decision-maker as well. Be it Justin Watts or Stilman White's who's at the point at any given time, UNC has to figure out a way to slow down Cooper. Do that and they slow down John Groce's offense as a whole. Nick Kellogg and Walter Offutt are both solid shooters with the latter also being Ohio's second-leading scorer, yet as a team they shoot just 43% from the field and essentially break even on assists (13.1 per game) and turnovers (13.0).

UNC has been far better in that area thanks in large part to Marshall, but it remains to he seen how well they do if he can't go. Ohio's forced 17 turnovers per game this season, and if they can approach that number on Friday night the Bobcats would have a shot. But can Ivo Baltic and company play well enough inside against Henson and Tyler Zeller? That's the biggest question mark for Ohio, who doesn't have a player taller than 6-8 in their rotation. Reggie Keely will be another banger in the paint for Ohio but UNC is the far superior rebounding team, and with Harrison Barnes on the wing there will be some difficult match-ups for Ohio to address.

North Carolina averages 1.13 points/possession on the season, but two of their losses (Duke at home at Florida State in the ACC title game) have come when they've exceeded that number. The reason against Florida State was defense, as the Seminoles scored 1.21 points/possession. Duke was able to pull off a miraculous comeback in the final three minutes, so there may not be as much to read into there. But Ohio doesn't have the size that Florida State has, making it tough to see them being able to go blow for blow with Henson and Zeller. That doesn't mean that the Bobcats can't win; just means that completing the task will be very difficult.

(2) Kansas vs. (11) NC State (10:17 PM, TBS)
The nightcap in St. Louis will be a very interesting battle as the Wolfpack have interior depth to throw at Kansas. Purdue was able to be physical with the All-American, rotating players on Robinson to take advantage of the five fouls afforded to each. But Mark Gottfied, while he may have the bodies to do so, can't afford to have a Richard Howell, C.J. Leslie or C.J. Williams to end up in early foul trouble. That's been a problem for NC State when they've struggled this season, and it's a battle that the Pack have been able to avoid for the most part through two games in the Big Dance.

The key for Kansas inside will be the play of their rotation guys not named Robinson, with Jeff Withey clearly being the most important. Withey, who has improved a great deal since last season, has scored in double figures just three times in the last nine games with all three being 11-point outings. Of greater importance will be his work on the glass, where after grabbing nine (and blocking five shots) against Detroit he was only able to corral two in 15 minutes of action on Sunday. Justin Wesley and Kevin Young also stand to see some action with Young grabbing seven boards against Purdue.

Leslie's a slender four who can run the floor with the best of them, and of his current stretch of 15 straight games in double figures he's shot below 42% from the field just twice with one being a 41.7% outing against Boston College. The Jayhawks and Wolfpack are rather similar when it comes to hitting the offensive glass (State has a OR% of 35.6% while Kansas is at 35.0%) but Kansas has done a better job of keeping their opponent from doing so. That could make a difference down the stretch, especially if NC State is dealing with foul trouble in the paint.

The battle at the point between Lorenzo Brown and Tyshawn Taylor should be fun to watch, with Young playing very well and Taylor looking to rebound from a subpar outing against Purdue. But at this point it's known what Taylor will bring to the table, making the production of Elijah Johnson and Travis Releford all the more important.

Johnson was outstanding on Sunday; without him this is a preview of Purdue/NC State as opposed to Kansas. If he can bring a similar performance (18 points, four rebounds) to the table Kansas will be tough to beat. Defensively they need to keep an eye on Scott Wood, one of the ACC's best shooters, and if NC State can get some open looks without relying on the three too much they're more than capable of springing the upset.

Kentucky vs Indiana: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Tue, 20 Mar 2012 08:35:46 -0700

(1) Kentucky vs. (4) Indiana: South Region

Records

Kentucky 34-2, 16-0 SEC (Regular-season Conference Champions; At large)

Indiana 27-8, 11-7 Big Ten (At large)

Time: 9:45 p.m. Friday

TV: CBS

Location: Georgia Dome in Atlanta

Winner will face: (3) Baylor or (10) Xavier, Sunday

Tournament Results

Kentucky def. Western Kentucky, 81-66; def. Iowa State 87-71

Indiana def. New Mexico State 79-66; def. VCU 63-61

Rankings

Kentucky No. 1 AP; No. 1 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

Indiana No. 16 AP; No. 17 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Kentucky 3

Indiana 11

Line: Kentucky -9 (O/U 146½)

Players to Watch

Kentucky: F Anthony Davis, 6-10 Fr. (14.3 ppg, 10.1 ppg, 4.6 bpg); F Terrence Jones, 6-9 So. (12.6 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 1.8 bpg); G Marquise Teague, 6-2 Fr. (9.9 ppg, 4.8 apg, 2 spg). Teague’s continued improvement has made the Wildcats the unquestioned NCAA Tournament favorites. In Saturday’s win over Iowa State, the freshman PG had perhaps his best performance at UK with 24 points (on 10-of-14 shooting), seven assists, four rebounds and a steal.

Indiana: C Tyler Zeller, 6-11 Fr. (16.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 2 spg, 60.2% FG); F Christian Watford, 6-9 Jr. (12.2 ppg, 5.8 apg, 44.5% 3s); G Victor Oladipo, 6-5 Sr. (10.1 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 2 apg). While Zeller and Will Sheehey were the heroes in Saturday’s win over VCU, Oladipo’s all-around play was crucial. He put up nine points (on 4-of-5 from the field), six assists, five rebounds, a steal and a block.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Kentucky: UK does a lot well. You know about the Wildcats’ size, their athleticism, their defense and their transition game. The big thing about this game, however, is how badly they’re going to want it. Do you think the Wildcats salivated as soon as they saw Indiana in their region when the brackets were announced? Do you think they remember the IU fans storming the court after Watford’s last-second shot on Dec. 10? Terrence Jones, in particular, will be out to have a big day after a 4-point, 1-rebound performance against the Hoosiers the first time around.

Indiana: The Hoosiers know they can beat Kentucky. One of the best shooting teams in the country, Indiana hit 9-of-15 from behind the arc in December’s win over Kentucky. They also out-rebounded the bigger Cats 28-26 and got 12 offensive boards. This is a young but confident team. For the year, Indiana is shooting 49.1 percent from the field, which is fifth in the nation, 43.7 from the 3-point line, second in the country, and 76.3 from the foul line, 11^th. The Hoosiers also average 13.5 assists and have a plus-4.4 rebounding margin.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Kentucky: Um, well, the Wildcats are not great in the half-court. They’re not always a tremendous shooting team. Teague used to be turnover prone. They have little tournament experience and not a lot of depth. The bottom line, it’s hard to find a lot of weaknesses with Kentucky.

Indiana: The Hoosiers turned the ball over 22 times in the win over VCU – and Kentucky will bring similar pressure. Starting PG Jordy Hulls had five turnovers in 30 minutes. And that wasn’t an anomaly. Indiana averages 13.6 errors per game and allows 6.8 steals. That will be the biggest part of Tom Crean’s gameplan – and John Calipari’s. If Indiana handles UK’s pressure, it has a chance to beat the Wildcats again. If not, it could be a blowout.

The Bottom Line: Kentucky will get its revenge, but as well as Indiana shoots, it’s hard to image it won’t stay within nine points.

The Pick: Kentucky 80, Indiana 75

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 214-164-6

NCAA Tournament (through first two rounds): 27-21-1