5 Things

5 things: Texas Troubles, Injuries, Curry FT's Overrated?

Kevin McNeill — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 14:48:45 -0800

Kevin McNeill's weekly 5 Things column breaks down what's important in the world of college basketball.

This week, we learned that...

1) Maybe foul shooting isn’t as important as we thought

The very best teams in the country, at least in terms of the latest Coaches’ poll, all have several things in common. They have certified superstars that will be high NBA draft picks in June, they have multiple offensive weapons, and they usually out-rebound their opponents by a solid margin.

They also stink at free throws.

The #1 team in the nation, Pittsburgh, is currently ranked 251^st in the nation in free throw percentage (out of 330 teams). UConn is 157^th. Oklahoma comes in at 194^th and Memphis is right there at 165^th.

Only until you reach the North Carolina section of the polls, specifically the Tar Heels (10^th) and Duke (61^st), do you find teams that really take advantage of the charity stripe.

But they are more the exception than the rule. Other teams widely seen as top contenders for a Final Four run are just as abysmal. Michigan State is ranked 170^th in free throw percentage, but they are automatic at the line compared to Louisville (256^th) and Missouri (255^th).

This is not to suggest these schools will not make it to Detroit. Memphis last season was the 318^th worst free throw shooting team in the country (out of 328 schools), yet still posted the nation’s best record, and made the national title game. They were actually only two minutes away from winning the championship, but couldn’t hold on to a nine point lead because of, well, free throws.

In fact, it wouldn’t be so bad if many of these teams did make it to the Final Four. Poor foul shooting has contributed to some of the most memorable national title games in history. Who could forget (dating myself here) Derrick Coleman missing a one-and-one at the end of the 1987 title game, setting up Keith Smart’s game winning shot? There was the terrible free throw shooting by Kansas in 2003 which allowed Syracuse to jump out to a big lead, only to have the Orange’s own poor shooting from the stripe down the stretch allow Kansas back within one final shot to tie it, which was swatted away by Hakim Warrick. And of course, there was the unforgettable final from a year ago.

There may be another memorable game in a few weeks.

2) There have been some Texas-sized disappointments this season

Returning four starters from last season’s Elite Eight team, including top rebounder Damion James and second-leading scorer AJ Abrams, Texas was a fashionable pick to win the national title this year. They were projected to (barely) finish second to Oklahoma in the Big 12 in the preseason, and began the year ranked in the top 10.

They remained there as recently as Jan 12^th, before losing to Oklahoma in Norman. After seemingly righting the ship with three straight wins, they lost at home to Kansas State and Missouri. The next game they were stunned at Nebraska.

The Longhorns did earn a hard-fought victory over Oklahoma Saturday, but the first half concussion to Blake Griffin that knocked him out of the game seemed to taint the effort. Previously, they lost to Texas A&M on the road, and needed overtime to put away 9-17 Colorado.

Texas, at 18-8 and 7-5 in the Big 12, is in good shape for an at-large berth. They have quality wins over UCLA, Villanova and now Oklahoma. But even this late in the season they are not a lock yet - especially with road dates with Kansas and Oklahoma State still on the schedule – something that was unimaginable two months ago.

Baylor was another trendy pick to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament, returning an experienced team with most of their starters from last year’s surprise Tourney team, including preseason Wooden Award candidate Curtis Jerrells. They began the season ranked in the Top 20.

Now they have dropped seven of their last eight, are completely out of the NCAA bubble picture, and – at 16-10 – in danger of missing out on the NIT.

Texas A&M was sitting pretty at 14-1 at the beginning of conference play, with resume-boosting victories over Arizona and LSU. Twelve games later, they are sitting at 5-7 in the Big 12, in sole possession of eighth place. They need to win their final four games – which includes a home matchup against Missouri - to ensure a winning conference record. Even that will probably not be enough to earn an at-large berth should they fail to advance deep into the Big 12 Tournament.

Texas Tech is just a train wreck. Coach Pat Knight was suspended one game by the Big 12 Conference for ripping the refs in his post game news conference after losing to Texas A&M at home Saturday. This comes a month after Knight was reprimanded by the Conference for making a fool of himself and charging the referees after being ejected from a losing effort against Nebraska.

The Red Raiders are currently 2-10 in the Big 12 with games remaining against Oklahoma and Kansas. They have won two games in their last 13 tries. At least the school re-signed Mike Leach.

3) The Citadel now has a shot at the Southern Conference’s automatic bid

Stephen Curry clearly has not recovered from a severely turned ankle, and may not be for the rest of the season, which means a tiny senior military college in Charleston, South Carolina may be on the verge of one of the most improbable NCAA Tournament berths in history.

The Citadel crushed a Curry-less Davidson on the road last week, the Bulldogs’ 10^th straight victory – the second longest in the nation behind Memphis. Once 7-9, they now sit at 18-10 and in sole possession of second place in the conference behind the Wildcats, and having already swept the third place team, the College of Charleston.

Davidson shot a miserable 25% from the field in that game without their leader. In their previous meeting back in January, the Wildcats shot 47% in a 15 point drubbing, helped in no small part by Curry’s 32 points.

On Saturday, Curry returned to the lineup against Butler, but clearly was favoring his ankle, and simply did not have the quick first step that has made him the nation’s leading scorer. He shot just 6 for 23 from the field, and committed seven turnovers.

Now it is highly unlikely, even with Curry not at 100%, that the Wildcats do not win the Southern Conference regular season title. They are in first place by two games, and their remaining three games are against UNC-Greensboro, Georgia Southern, and Elon – three of the worst teams in the conference. However, the Southern Conference Tournament could be ripe for a shocking upset.

The Citadel has never once been to the postseason. They haven’t won more than one game in the Southern Conference Tournament in 50 years. They have had four winning regular season records in the last 20 years. They have posted just a single 20 win season which came 30 years ago.

Suffice it to say, the Bulldogs playing in the first round of the NCAA Tournament would be the single biggest underdog in the history of organized athletics. But somehow, I don’t think they would mind.

3) The America East regular season title will be decided this week

Vermont and Binghamton are currently tied for first place in the America East Conference with just a single game to go. Binghamton has swept the Catamounts, both games in nail-biting fashion, so either a win or Vermont loss gives them the regular season title. That title, and # 1 seed in the America East Tournament, is crucial because the highest seed gets home court advantage in the title game. The # 1 seed has gone on to win the conference’s automatic berth in three of the last four years.

Vermont plays on the road against a Maine team that has won just four conference games on Sunday, while Binghamton is at home Thursday against UMBC (Maryland-Baltimore County).

5) Injuries are playing a major factor in other conference races as well

With the best player in the country, the Sooners were legitimate national title contenders, and had the best record in college basketball. Since Blake Griffin suffered a concussion in the first half of a crucial game against Texas, however, Oklahoma has lost two in a row, the latest at home to Kansas, who now own sole possession of first place in the Big 12.

Griffin should be back in the lineup for the matchup against Texas Tech on Saturday, but it may now be too late to salvage a Big 12 regular season title. The Jayhawks final three games are against underachieving Texas Tech and Texas (at home) and a revenge game against arch-rival Missouri (also at home).

St. Mary’s was on track to overtake Gonzaga for first place in the WCC, but star guard Patty Mills broke two bones in his hand during the game against the Zags that would have accomplished it . After that crushing defeat, the Gaels went on to lose three of their next four, and were soon out of contention in the conference. Even after a huge win over a ranked Utah State team recently – their third win in a row - ESPN’s Andy Katz reported that St. Mary’s would have a very tough time earning an at-large berth to the NCAA Tournament should Patty Mills not return in time for the WCC Tournament, simply because they “probably won't be able to convince the (NCAA selection) committee that they can be the same team without him.”

Finally, the season-ending knee injury to Jerome Dyson, who was averaging 13 points and 4 boards a game, is a potentially huge blow to UConn’s chances in the Big East Conference. The Huskies currently have a half game lead in the Big East over Marquette, Louisville and Pittsburgh with three games to play. Two of those games are on the road against the Panthers and Golden Eagles.

5 Things: SEC Stinks, Big East Bids, Duquesne's Best

Kevin McNeill — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 10:49:20 -0800

Kevin McNeill's weekly 5 Things column breaks down what's important in the world of college basketball.

This week, we learned that...

1) The SEC may be the worst major conference in almost a quarter century

There’s still plenty of time left in the regular season, but the SEC may be on the verge of the worst showing by a Big 6 conference since the Reagan Administration.

As of this writing, seven teams in the SEC have eight losses or more, and nine have at least seven losses. Of the six SEC teams with a winning conference record so far, only two have actually beaten a currently ranked team this season – Florida (who defeated Washington), and Tennessee (Marquette). While LSU, South Carolina and Florida all received votes in the latest Coaches poll, no SEC team has made an appearance in that poll since January 11^th, when Tennessee was on its way out.

Over the last six seasons, no one major conference placed less than 13^th (the Big 10, twice) in the final regular season polls. In fact, since the AP poll expanded to 25 teams in 1992, no major conference has failed to place at least one team in the final rankings. The last time a Big 6 conference was excluded occurred when the Pac-10 was shut out in the final polls of 1986.

It could happen again this season, although LSU and Florida seemingly have the best shot to prevent it. Florida plays at Kentucky on Tuesday, and then travels to LSU for a crucial game on the 24^th.

2) Bill Self and John Calipari continue to reload

The two participants in last season’s national championship game lost a combined eight players to the 2008 NBA Draft, and all but two starters (both with Memphis) overall.

So what?

Memphis won their 14^th game in a row Saturday, beating Gonzaga soundly in Spokane - their sixth road game in their last nine contests. Led by seniors Robert Dozier and Antonio Anderson, not to mention superstar freshman Tyreke Evans, the Tigers are now deservedly ranked in the Top 10 in the country and are looking absolutely dominant.

In his first eight full seasons with Memphis, Coach Calipari has won 238 games versus just 68 losses. Over the past four seasons, including the current one, Calipari is a ridiculous 62-1 (including C-USA Tournament games) in the conference, and is currently riding a 50 game C-USA winning streak.

During that same time span, Memphis has won a total of 123 games so far. The NCAA record for most wins over a four year time period is currently held by Duke, who won 133 between 1998 and 2001. With eight games remaining in the regular season, not to mention the C-USA tournament and NCAA Tournament, Memphis will likely own that record this year.

Kansas, which sports two freshmen and two sophomores in its starting lineup, has won eight of their last nine, the one loss coming on a last-second shot by arch-rival Missouri in Columbia on Monday night. The Jayhawks are also back in the Top 25 for the first time since December.

In the last two full seasons, Coach Bill Self has won 70 games, and has an absurd .814 winning percentage since landing in Lawrence six years ago. He already has taken his team to the Elite Eight twice and of course won the national championship last year.

KU has a tough stretch remaining with road games against surprising Kansas State and Oklahoma on the schedule. But the fact that the Jayhawks are right in the thick of the Big 12 title race, a year after losing all five starters and three players from the bench, is truly remarkable.

3) Duquesne is in the midst of one of their best seasons ever

Duquesne, that other team from Pittsburgh, had one of its biggest wins in program history Saturday when they knocked off # 9 Xavier. The Dukes hadn't beaten a team ranked that high since 1974. They are now in fourth place in the A-10 and are off to their best conference start in nearly thirty years.

Their last two losses came on the road in overtime by a combined five points. As much as I hate playing the coulda-woulda-shoulda hypothetical card, had those games gone the other way, Duquesne would actually be sitting in first place right now. Unbelievable.

Under third year coach Ron Everhart, the Dukes posted their first winning season last year since 1994. With 15 wins already this year, just three more victories will give them their best season since 1981.

This is a Duquesne team that has not been to the NCAA Tournament since 1977, and has advanced beyond the first round of the A-10 Tournament just once since 1996 – in 2004 when they upended UMass. Their last postseason tournament of any kind was the NIT in 1994.

Even more remarkable is that this turnaround comes just over two years since an on-campus shooting wounded five Duquesne basketball players, one of them critically. One of those five players was Aaron Jackson, who is now leading the Dukes in scoring and assists. Saturday he led all players in scoring with 21 points, earning him A-10 player of the week honors for the third time this season.

4) The Big East is thinning out

Well, so much for getting ten teams to the Big Dance.

The Big East Conference, which had seven teams ranked in the top 25 in the preseason, with Syracuse and West Virginia also receiving votes, has fallen on tough times recently.

Notre Dame has now lost seven in a row and need to run the table the rest of the regular season to reach 20 wins (unlikely, with road games against UConn, West Virginia and Providence coming up). Georgetown, a team that was ranked in the Top 10 in both polls as recently as January11th, has now lost six of their last seven, and eight of their last eleven. Syracuse has dropped five of their last seven with a trip to Connecticut next on the schedule. Arinze Onuaku’s knee injury has been devastating to the Orange, who have looked lost on the court without his inside presence and defense.

Providence looked like they were getting close to being a lock for a NCAA Tournament bid after defeating Cincinnati on the road, but then proceeded to lose five of their next eight, the most recent a 86-59 pasting at the hands of West Virginia. Speaking of the Mountaineers, they are 5-6 in their last eleven games, although every one of those losses came to ranked opponents and are still looking pretty good for a tournament berth.

Still, there could be as few as six teams from the Big East going to the NCAA Tournament come Selection Sunday should some teams be unable to turn it around over the home stretch, a remarkable turn of events from just a month ago.

5) UConn, Oklahoma and North Carolina are starting to separate themselves from the pack

There seems to be a bit more breathing room between the top three ranked teams in the country and everybody else.

Connecticut apparently has not been troubled by playing with the target on their back that comes with being # 1. Hasheem Thabeet has been nothing short of outstanding, and is one of four starters averaging double figures in scoring, and one of two (Jeff Adrien being the other) averaging a double-double. But Thabeet has been the key to the Huskies’ dominance. His presence in the paint and ability to completely alter shots, much less block them, is unmatched.

The Tar Heels, who began the season as the unanimous #1 team in the country, and who this writer at one point speculated could run the table - right before they laid an egg against Boston College - are now seemingly reasserting themselves as a #1 seed in March. They completely destroyed two very good teams in Miami and Clemson, and have won their last three games by an average of 16 points. The emergence of Wayne Ellington as one of the best players in the ACC is a big reason why.

Oklahoma has been living dangerously lately, needing second half comebacks in each of their last three games, but are also proving themselves to be one of the most unpredictable, and therefore dangerous, teams in the country.

While the Sooners can rely on Blake Griffin – the best player in the nation – night in and night out, they have seemingly had a different player step up to help the team to victory in every recent game.

Tony Crocker put up 24 points against Colorado on 7 of 12 shooting, more points than he posted his previous three games combined. Against Texas A&M, four Sooners scored in double figures, including Blake’s brother Taylor who hit the go-ahead basket with under a minute to play, only the second time he has posted over 10 points this season. Freshman Willie Warren exploded for 29 against Iowa State the game prior to that.

I’m not quite ready to guarantee that one of these three will be cutting down the nets in April. All three will probably post at least one more loss before the season ends (North Carolina has a matchup Wednesday against Duke, as pure a throw-out-the-records rivalry as there exists in sports today, and UConn still must face Pitt twice). But there’s no question they are the teams to beat.

5 Things: Ater Majok, Vol Struggles, Utah State, More..

Kevin McNeill — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 19:04:59 -0800

Kevin McNeill's weekly 5 Things column breaks down what's important in the world of college basketball.

This week, we learned that...

1) Some early-season locks are playing themselves out of the NCAA Tournament

Tennessee began the year ranked 14^th in the AP and 13^th in the coaches’ poll. They rose to as high as eighth in both polls in mid-December, and looked like a potential contender for a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Now, the Volunteers have lost four of their last seven, after a brick-laden 54-52 defeat to Memphis at home. In fact, three of those four losses have been at home, with the Vols hosting Jodie Meeks’ record-setting night, and Gonzaga's victory snapping a 37-game home winning streak on January 7th. They are 12-6 and tied for fourth in a conference which has one team (Kentucky) ranked in the Top 25. Suddenly, Tennessee’s big wins against Georgetown in the Old Spice Classic in November, and Marquette in December, are looking more and more like old news.

These home losses are significant. After this week, the Volunteers play six of their final ten regular season games on the road. In fact, three of their final five games are away from Knoxville - against Kentucky, Florida, and better-than-expected South Carolina.

Tennessee does have one of the toughest slates in the country at the moment (currently #3 in strength of schedule), which should boost their RPI and bubble chances at season’s end – something Coach Bruce Pearl was keenly aware of when he labeled the Memphis defeat a “resume-building opportunity loss.” But continue to stumble through the rest of a rough schedule the way they have recently, and the Volunteers will be building their resume in the NIT.

After their defeat to Michigan State on Sunday, Ohio State dropped to 3-4 in the Big Ten, tied for seventh with Wisconsin. While the Buckeyes haven’t had any truly bad losses, other than getting trounced at home to West Virginia, they have dropped five of their last nine. Like Tennessee, Ohio State simply cannot rest on early season victories (in their case against Butler and Notre Dame), or a mid-December Top 25 ranking, to get them into the Tournament.

After two games the Buckeyes need to win (against Michigan and Indiana), four of the next seven games will come against ranked conference foes, two of which will be nationally televised on CBS. There is also a crucial road game against Wisconsin (another team now fighting for an at-large berth after dropping their fourth straight Saturday).

With the Big East and ACC alone swallowing up as many as 15 at-large berths, in addition to the emergence of surprise teams like Oklahoma State and Cal, it could mean a long night on Selection Sunday for both Ohio State and Tennessee unless things turn around.

2) Utah State could all but lock up the WAC this week

After a successful road (or overseas) win at Hawaii, Utah State has now quietly won 14 in a row, the second longest in the nation behind St. Mary’s 15 game winning streak. They are 19-1, tied with Oklahoma for most wins so far, and are 7-0 in the WAC.

They haven’t missed a beat from last season, where they won 24 games and earned a share of their first WAC regular season title. The fact that the Aggies are doing this despite losing the conference’s player of the year in Jaycee Carroll to graduation is a testament to Coach Stew Morrill, who will notch his 10^th straight 20 win season this year.

Gary Wilkinson, the preseason pick for conference player of the year, is certainly living up to the hype. He is currently tied for third in the conference in scoring, fourth in rebounding, and is in the top five in the WAC in field goal and free throw percentage. Sophomore forward Tai Wesley, who posted a double-double against Hawaii, is shooting over 65% on the season.

Overall, the Aggies lead the WAC in field goal percentage and assists, a testimony to their unselfish play. More importantly, they also lead the WAC in points allowed at 59, nearly five points per game less than the next nearest team, Louisiana Tech.

Utah State will face Nevada at home on Thursday. A win would give them a two and a half game cushion in a conference where only three of the nine teams currently have winning records. The Aggies look like they are about to win their second WAC title in school history, and who knows, may even make some noise in the NCAA Tournament.

3) UConn learned they will get a great player...in 2010

Connecticut got some good news and bad news this week. The good news is that their super-recruit, Ater Majok, who has already enrolled in classes on campus, was cleared to play for the Huskies by the NCAA. The bad news is that it won’t be until the second semester of next season.

The reason is a little more complicated, but helps to put Majok’s extraordinary journey to Storrs, CT in perspective.

Majok is a native of Sudan who at the age of six was sent off to a refugee camp in Egypt, to escape the genocide in his own country. There, he endured horrible conditions and overcrowding. Even though he was only a child, he was attacked more than once, and has a knife wound on his ear to prove it.

But Majok also tried to better himself by learning Arabic and other languages, although not much English. He eventually wound up in Australia at the age of 13 by way of a United Nations asylum program for refugees.

Four years later, Majok’s cousin decided that he would introduce the 6’10’’ soccer player to the game of basketball. Four years after that, he was one of the hottest college basketball recruits in the United States.

He originally committed to Baylor, but decommitted after other schools began to take notice of him. Majok eventually chose UConn in April over the likes of UCLA, Kansas, and Kentucky. He has to wait to play until he successfully completes two full semesters of academic work, according to the recent NCAA ruling, which apparently did not allow much of his coursework in Australia to transfer over. He is, however, allowed to practice, which is already paying dividends in his development as a player.

Majok joins a distinguished group of Huskies who hail from foreign countries, including legendary players such as Emeka Okafor (Nigeria, although born in the US), Ajou Deng (Sudan), current star Hasheem Thabeet (Tanzania), Doron Sheffer (Israel) and Nadav Henefeld (Israel) who still holds a cult-like status in Connecticut despite only playing a single season, the “dream season” of 1990.

Coach Jim Calhoun is thrilled to have Majok despite the fact that NBA scouts are apparently drooling over his potential and work ethic, meaning he might turn pro after only wearing a UConn uniform for a single semester. Still, with the graduation of AJ Price, Jeff Adrien, and Craig Austrie, as well as Thabeet’s likely exit to the NBA, Majok will be more than welcome in Storrs, and will be a lot of fun to watch. Even if it’s only for a short time on the collegiate level.

4) Hoosier fans are already looking forward to football season

The good people of Bloomington, Indiana can be forgiven for being in a bit of a funk lately. It’s been a bitter and cold winter in more ways than one.

Their beloved Hoosiers lost their fifth straight game at Assembly Hall on Sunday to Minnesota. It was also their ninth defeat in a row, and eleventh in their last twelve games. They lost to 7-11 Lipscomb, were crushed by Northeastern, and lost to Penn State at home by double digits. They are off to their worst start (0-6) in conference play in 65 years. Oh, and hated Purdue is ranked in the Top 20.

It wasn’t supposed to be this way of course. Three years ago, Indiana lured Kelvin Sampson away from Oklahoma amid much fanfare and expectations. Now, they are struggling to deal with the repercussions of that fateful decision, and their first major scandal since 1960.

Sampson’s repeated violations of NCAA rules concerning telephone calls to recruits, and then lying about it over the course of its investigation, led to the program being placed on three years’ probation by the NCAA last fall – in addition to the scholarship and recruiting restrictions already self-imposed by the school.

Even after Sampson’s merciful dismissal, new coach Tom Crean immediately found himself having to deal with players on his roster who clearly were recruited by Sampson without much thought to character or academics. Forward DeAndre Thomas was quickly booted from the team, as were starting guards Armon Bassett and Jamarcus Ellis. Freshman center Eli Holman decided to transfer, and Eric Gordon and DJ White were taken in the first round of the NBA Draft.

Just like that, the proud Indiana Hoosiers – who own five national titles, have over 1600 wins and have endured only a single losing season since 1969 – were left with just nine scholarship players for the current season, just two of which played in limited minutes last year.

But Hoosier fans can take heart in watching Baylor’s resurgence. What Dave Bliss managed just five short years ago (framing a murdered kid to hide his own illegal payments) makes Sampson look like Coach Carter. Yet the Bears have overcome devastating NCAA sanctions and key transfers, and are now nationally ranked and well on their way to a second consecutive NCAA Tournament thanks to the great work of Coach Scott Drew. There’s no reason to think Tom Crean can’t perform a similar rebuilding project once he has his own recruits in place, even under the cloud of probation, especially with such a tradition-rich program.

5) Marquette (speaking of Tom Crean) and Louisville are on fire in the Big East

I don’t know what Coach Rick Pitino told his team after losing a nail-biter to UNLV on New Year’s Eve, but whatever it was, it stuck. Louisville has now won seven in a row, with five of those wins over teams currently ranked in the Top 25. This includes two very impressive road wins against then-#17 Villanova and then-# 8 Syracuse on Sunday, a win at home over rival Kentucky, and of course, defeating the top ranked team in the country in Pitt.

Earl Clark has really stepped it up, posting a double-double in four of the last five games. So has Terrence Williams, who is taking better shots and ripping down more rebounds (he had 30 of them combined in back-to-back wins over Villanova and Notre Dame).

Mark your calendar. February 2nd, groundhog’s day, the Cardinals play host to UConn, and it could be the most exciting game of the year so far.

Marquette for their part has now won 10 in a row and are off to their best conference start, in any conference, in school history at 7-0 after beating Notre Dame in South Bend on Monday.

Should their winning ways continue, and granted there is still a long ways to go, the Golden Eagles have a real chance to make a strong case for a # 1 seed at season’s end. Their final five games are, in order, at Georgetown, home against UConn, on the road against Pitt and Louisville, and then at home against Syracuse. Considering how much weight the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee places on how teams close out the regular season, there shouldn’t be a school in the country that can make as much of a statement than Marquette will should they get through that schedule intact.

College Basketball: 5 Things We Learned This Week

Kevin McNeill — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 19:35:20 -0800

Kevin McNeill's weekly 5 Things column breaks down what's important in the world of college basketball.

This week, we learned that...

1) Butler is not exactly rebuilding

After Butler lost four starters from last year’s 30-win campaign, including Horizon League player of the year Mike Green, AJ Graves, and Drew Streicher, the Bulldogs were projected in the preseason to finish a lowly fifth in the League. Butler was supposed to be starting a rebuilding project, involving a core of talented but underdeveloped freshmen that would be a least a year away from returning to the postseason.

Instead, they are right where they left off after last year. They are 10-1 for the third consecutive season, and nationally ranked after an upset of # 12 Xavier in Cincinnati.

A team that starts three freshmen and a sophomore has showed remarkable grit under pressure. After Xavier’s Derrick Brown nailed a three to bring the Musketeers back to within three points with less than four minutes remaining, Butler held Xavier to just one field goal for the rest of regulation and calmly made 11 of 12 free throws down the stretch to put the game away.

Freshman Gordon Hayward has been outstanding so far, scoring 25 points against Ohio State (and barely missing an off-balance three at the buzzer that would have tied the game) and putting up 19 on Xavier. Fellow freshman Shelvin Mack has shown consistent improvement, and is currently seventh in the Horizon in assists, and twelfth in scoring. He’s also hit his last 19 free throws. Finally, Matt Howard, the lone returning starter from last season, is not letting up his aggressive play, pulling down no less than nine offensive rebounds against Xavier.

This is all a tremendous credit to head coach Brad Stevens, the second year coach who replaced Todd Lickliter, after he left for Iowa. The 32 year old prodigy and former Butler assistant is just eight years removed from being a marketing assistant for Eli Lilly and Company before deciding that he’d rather make a career in basketball.

He now has 40 wins in his first 45 games as head coach; with a young team that no one thought would be within shouting distance of respectability this year. Should this hold up, if he’s not a coach of the year finalist at the end of the season, then something is seriously wrong.

2) The Big East is still the nation’s strongest conference, and one of the strongest ever

The Big East in all likelihood will put 10 teams into the NCAA Tournament in March, possibly even 11. The record for most teams any conference has sent to the Dance is eight, set by … the Big East - twice – in 2006 and again last season.

The Conference currently has four teams in the Top 10, eight teams in the latest coaches poll, and seven in the AP - with West Virginia knocking at the door with their walloping of Ohio State Saturday in Columbus.

To be sure, there are clear vulnerabilities. UConn was completely listless at home against Georgetown Monday, getting outhustled on almost every possession. Pitt still has much to prove after its ugly win over Florida State, the first of three road games culminating with a huge showdown at Georgetown. In fact, it’s hard to imagine any Big East team beating North Carolina right now. But overall, there are at least nine teams (UConn, Pitt, Georgetown, Syracuse, Notre Dame, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, and West Virginia), particularly the Hoyas, that appear to be a legit threat to be an Elite Eight team or better, and, barring injury, will only improve as they beat up on each over the next couple of months.

3) Some disappointing BCS teams aren’t NIT bound just yet

After some particularly ugly losses recently, there has been plenty of talk in local media outlets of several bubble teams from major conferences a year ago already seeing their bubble burst this season.

First, it is important to keep in mind that the NCAA Selection Committee of late has put a lot of emphasis on how teams play during the final ten games of the regular season. Strength of schedule has also played a large factor, to the detriment of many upstart mid-major programs that have no control over the quality of teams in their conference, but to the benefit of teams in the Big 6.

Second, just like last year, many mid-major conferences will likely only send only one or two teams to the NCAA Tournament, leaving more at large berths for the Big 6. For example, the Missouri Valley Conference could once again be a one-bid league. The Mountain West could get as few as two teams in, ditto the A-10, C-USA and the WCC. The Sun Belt will be almost assured to send only one representative to the Big Dance, even though South Alabama received a surprise at-large berth last season.

All this means that programs such as Virginia Tech, Washington State, USC, Iowa, even Seton Hall (with losses to IUPUI and James Madison) are not out of contention for an at-large berth yet, and don’t even need a miracle to get there. Seton Hall for example will begin a stretch Tuesday at Syracuse that will see them play six out of their next seven games against ranked opponents, three of them on the road. Virginia Tech will close the season with home and aways with Florida State, on the road against Clemson and home games against Duke and UNC. Both teams will have a strong strength of schedule rating at season’s end, and corresponding RPI, which means just a high quality win or two could propel them to the NCAA Tournament, even with a .500 conference record or worse.

Of course a few upsets in conference tournaments, Butler losing the Horizon championship for example, would make this all moot. But for now, fans of mediocre major conference programs still have plenty to root for.

4) The next Hampton or Coppin State could be lurking

Portland State made a respectable showing Monday after stumbling out of the gate against Baylor in Waco, and has proven they can be dangerous after beating a Gonzaga team that was clearly overlooking them last week.

The Niagara Purple Eagles have won four straight road games, including victories over South Florida and St. Bonaventure. In addition, although the Wildcats were admittedly injured and tired after playing three games in six days, Niagara still played Villanova very tight throughout the game on their own court in November.

Bobby Cremins not only notched his 500^th career win this season, but has his College of Charleston Cougars looking like they may return to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in ten seasons. The Cougars, out of the Southern Conference, have already handed South Carolina their only loss of the season and played Davidson to the wire Monday in front of a sold-out crowd, roaring back to within 2 from 12 down with under four minutes to play only to falter at the end.

Sporting a pair of up-and-coming sophomores, Andrew Goudelock and Antwaine Wiggins (who hit the game-winner against Winthrop), and senior leaders down low in Jermaine Johnson and Dustin Scott, the Cougars are looking like the high seed no one will want to play come March.

5) Its the most wonderful time of the year, except for college basketball

The holiday season is a time to get together with family and friends, eat too much, enjoy some eggnog and, for sports fans, to enjoy some quality college hoops. Like Minnesota beating up on High Point, Missouri eking out a 50 point win over SIU Edwardsville, and Marquette hammering Presbyterian (who has been cashing in on the guaranteed money this year, already playing Duke, Georgia, Clemson, and South Carolina).

In fact, since last week’s column, the only matchup of nationally ranked teams came in Monday’s Big East showdown between UConn and Georgetown. Just about every other ranked team has feasted on holiday cupcakes.

But better times are ahead. There’s the Michigan State–Minnesota matchup on Wednesday, followed by Villanova-Marquette on New Year’s Day. There’s also a great day on tap for Saturday with Pitt-Georgetown, Ohio State-Minnesota, Tennessee-Kansas and BYU-Wake Forest.