Montana

Poll: Who Will Win the Big Sky?

Shawn Siegel — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 09:40:40 -0400

Big Sky Tournament: Preview & Odds

Evan Dorey — Sat, 07 Mar 2009 21:00:51 -0500

This is one in a series of conference tournament previews, in which I run down all the teams involved, give a brief statistical review and present the log5 projections, using in-conference offensive and defensive efficiency. The basic log5 methodology comes from Bill James, and this is an area Ken Pomeroy has looked at in the past as well. I claim nothing new in the application, but obviously with slightly different methodologies, these numbers may differ from others you find. I don’t claim to be an expert on any particular conference, and I’m sure there are some mis-characterizations on some players I’ve seen sparingly at best, so please add your thoughts in the comments. Anyway, with no further ado, the preview follows below:

Big Sky Conference

The Big Sky Tournament features just 6 of the conference’s 9 teams, with the top two teams getting automatic semifinal byes. The first round games are played at campus sites, while Weber St. hosts the semis and final at the Dee Events Center.

#	Team	SF	F	W
1	Weber St.	100.00%	87.17%	73.11%
2	Portland St.	100.00%	58.13%	13.29%
3	Montana	94.12%	41.37%	7.97%
4	Idaho St.	70.40%	9.54%	4.30%
5	Northern Colorado	29.60%	3.30%	1.31%
6	Montana St.	5.88%	0.50%	0.02%

Weber would have been favorites at a neutral site. At home, they should be able to win the two games they’ll need.

#1 – Weber St. Wildcats (21-8, 15-1) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.173

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2007 (1^st Round)

There’s little question which team was the best in the Big Sky, as Weber St. has dominated its conference competition, entering the tournament with an 11-game winning streak. With the tournament being hosted in Ogden, the Wildcats should be heavy favorites, though it is worth noting that their only loss of the season came on their home court. They’ve taken the league thanks to their spectacular play on the offensive end, as they have put up one of the best eFG percentages in the nation. They take a lot of three-pointers, and hit more than 41% of those attempts, while also managing to make 55% of their attempts inside. They are poor offensive rebounders, but they don’t get much chance to practice, given how they make shots. Weber St. also has the best defensive team in the conference, dominating the boards and stopping shots well in all areas of the floor.

Players to watch:

5-6 SR Kellen McCoy, 14.1 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 1.4 SPG, 58.2 eFG% - The Big Sky MVP, McCoy is the Wildcats’ top scorer and best three-point shooter, and can easily go for twenty points in a game. His free-throw shooting is also excellent, but the Wildcats must be concerned that he hasn’t been to the line in either of the last two games.

6-2 FR Damian Lillard, 11.7 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 3.0 APG, 53.6 eFG% - Lillard is coming in on a huge high, after finishing his regular season with a career-high 27 point effort against Montana St. He’s one of a large cast of strong shooters the Wildcats can call upon.

#2 – Portland St. Vikings (21-9, 11-5) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.093

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2008 (1^st Round)

The defending champions got a couple of big results in the non-conference schedule, losing a close one against Washington and winning at Gonzaga, but struggled with their form on the road in the last month of the season, winning just one of five games. The Vikings have a three-heavy offense, and do a pretty good job with it, hitting more than 38% of their attempts, and are a solid team inside as well. Their strength is their defense, and while they aren’t great at stopping opponents’ shots, they force a lot of turnovers and rarely send opponents to the line.

Players to watch:

6-1 JR Dominic Waters, 11.9 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 58.9 eFG% - Waters is the best three-point shooter on a team of quality shooters, hitting 46% of his long range attempts, and while he tends to be a inconsistent scorer, he has had a strong run in the games leading up to the tournament.

5-6 SR Jeremiah Dominguez, 12.6 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 3.1 APG, 1.8 SPG, 54.0 eFG% - Portland St.’s leading scorer is another player who hits more than 40% of his three-pointers, but unlike Waters, he hits just a third of his shots from inside the arc. He also leads the team in assists and steals.

#3 –Montana Grizzlies (17-11, 11-5) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.071

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2006 (2^nd Round)

The Grizzlies ran off a seven-game winning streak in the middle of the conference season, and that was enough to power them up to third in the league. They are the last of the Big Sky’s teams to hold opponents under a point-per-possession, as they stop opponents from making shots, including allowing just 45% from two-point range. They need to force a lot of misses, as they don’t take the ball away from their opponents too often. The Montana offense hasn’t been that good; it hasn’t been able to transfer its obvious shooting ability, nearly 78% from the free throw line, into shots from the field. It is a poor offensive rebounding team, but this is somewhat mitigated by how well it holds onto the ball.

Players to watch:

6-2 JR Anthony Johnson, 17.5 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 3.1 APG, 54.0 eFG% - Johnson is the conference’s best scorer, and leads the Grizzlies in assists. He shoots 54% on his two-point attempts, and leads the conference in shooting from the free throw line, at 87%.

6-9 SR Jordan Hasquet, 10.9 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 50.6 eFG% - Hasquet leads the team in rebounding, is one of the team’s better three-point shooters, and has committed just 9 turnovers in 2009.

#4 – Idaho St. Bengals (12-18, 9-7) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.068

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1987 (1^st Round)

Idaho St. should be able to make the semi-finals, as it is has had a very good record at home in conference play, only losing to Weber St. With the Wildcats waiting in the semis, though, any further would be a big surprise. The Bengals are a slow, deliberate, interior focused team, and make 54% of attempts from inside the arc, good enough to make them the conference’s second best offense. Idaho St. has been average defensively, though they have had problems with sending opponents to the free throw line.

Players to watch:

6-6 SR Matt Stucki, 12.1 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 3.9 APG, 1.4 SPG, 55.2 eFG% - Stucki is a 6-6 player whose style is a lot like a guard’s; he’s not a great rebounder, but leads the conference in assists and leads the team in three-point shooting.

6-5 JR Amorrow Morgan, 13.8 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 50.7 eFG% - Morgan plays more minutes than anyone else in the Big Sky, and leads the Bengals in scoring, a good inside player who can also hit threes pretty well.

#5 – Northern Colorado Bears (14-17, 8-8) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.047

Last NCAA Tournament bid: None

Just five years into its Division I history, Northern Colorado has made its first Big Sky tournament, and will have a decent shot against an Idaho St. team that it split a tight pair of games with in the regular season. The Bears’ games tend to feature a lot of threes being hit, as they make 42% of their attempts and allow opponents 38%. Despite these extremes, they are average on both ends of the floor, as they are excellent defensive rebounders, but commit a fair number of turnovers. They also get to the free throw line a lot, an area where they earn a lot of points.

Players to watch:

6-7 JR Jabril Banks, 12.3 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 64.4 eFG% - Banks leads the Bears in scoring, and is an excellent inside shooter, with one of the conference’s best field goal percentages. He also get to the free throw line a lot, and shoots a very respectable 73% once there.

6-0 SO Devon Beitzel, 11.9 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 61.8 eFG% - Beitzel had a magical four game stretch just before the holiday break in which he averaged more than 25 points, but since then he’s been pretty up-and-down with his scoring. He’s a very good shooter, well over 40% from outside and nearly at 60% inside the arc.

#6 – Montana St. Bobcats (9-19, 5-9) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.060

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1996 (1^st Round)

Montana St. snuck into the tournament despite going 1-6 to close the conference season, and sitting 8^th in the league in efficiency margin, so an early exit should be expected. The Bobcats are the conference’s worst shooters, and allow opponents to make a high percentage of shots inside, so their strength on the glass doesn’t help them that much. They lost both of their games with Montana fairly handily, and I’d expect a third defeat in a similar vein.

Players to watch:

6-9 SR Divaldo Mbunga, 10.1 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 1.6 BPG, 54.4 eFG% - Mbunga has been a very efficient player over the season, but has seen his role in the offense decrease over recent weeks, something that’s not caused a lot of trouble for the Bobcats. Still, he leads the conference in rebounds and blocks, and is a critical player inside.

6-3 JR Will Bynum, 10.9 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 2.1 SPG, 49.8 eFG% - No, not that Will Bynum. Leading the team in scoring, and the Big Sky in steals, he’s an solid inside scorer, over 50% from two-point range.

My statistical all-Big Sky team:

Montana JR G Anthony Johnson, 17.5 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 3.1 APG, 54.0 eFG%

Weber St. SR G Kellen McCoy, 14.1 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 1.4 SPG, 58.2 eFG%

Idaho St. SR G Matt Stucki, 12.1 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 3.9 APG, 1.4 SPG, 55.2 eFG%

Northern Colorado JR F Jabril Banks, 12.3 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 64.4 eFG%

Northern Arizona SO F Shane Johannsen, 9.9 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 72.7 eFG%

GameNight: Duke vs Montana

Blake Hofstad — Sun, 23 Nov 2008 11:29:48 -0500

Start: Nov 23 2008 - 12:59pm

Preview & Prediction: By Blake Hofstad

The Grizzlies of Montana make the trip down to Durham to play the Duke Blue Devils. While Montana is a good team, and has a shot to win the Big Sky, this is Duke. It's hard for anyone to come into Cameron and win, let alone Montana.

For the Grizzlies to have a shot, they will need to rely heavily on their perimeter defense, as Duke’s offense utilizes their tremendous shooting ability. The bulk of Montana’s scoring comes from three guys. Ryan Staudacher pours in 16 a game. Jordan Hasquet and Brian Qvale are the Grizzlies best rebounders, and between the two of them average around 24 points and 15 rebounds a game. Point guard Jack McGillis is a solid passer, giving out 5 assists a game. Unfortunately for Montana, they haven’t looked good early. Their record is 2-1, but that is deceiving. They got blown out by Colorado State, beat Montana Western by 7 and beat possibly the worst non-independent team in college basketball in Mississippi Valley State. If you lose by 30 to Colorado State, how bad will Duke beat you?

The Blue Devils boast one of the top teams in the country. They skated through the Coaches against Cancer tournament and their only real challenge was against Rhode Island, who had possibly the nation’s best shooter in Jimmy Baron on their side. The thing that makes Duke so tough is that they can put 5 guys on the court that can shoot, and make, the three. Jon Scheyer has played very well; his dribble penetration has set up some great looks for both himself and his teammates. Gerald Henderson does everything for this team. He and Kyle Singler are two very versatile players. Nolan Smith has played well enough in the starting role. Even Brian Zoubek has played key roles in Duke’s victories, being the one true big guy on their roster.

Poor Montana. This is not a good morale booster so early in the season.

Winner: Duke Margin: 20+

Big Sky Basketball Preview: 08-09

CHN — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 21:15:40 -0500

Conference Rank: 23rd

Conference Page

All-BIG SKY Team
Pos.	Player	Team	Yr.

G	Jeremiah Dominguez	Portland St	Sr
G	Josh Wilson	NAU	Sr
F	Phil Nelson	Portland St	So
F	Jabril Banks	No. Colorado	Sr
F	Jordan Hasquet	Montana	Sr
CHN Award Winners		Returning Leaders
none		Points: Jeremiah Dominguez 14.2 Rebounds: Jordan Hasquet 7.2 Assists: Josh Wilson 5.4

BIG SKY Standings
Nat'l	Team	League	Tourney

112	Montana	Big Sky	1	NCAA
149	Portland State**	Big Sky	2
181	Northern Arizona	Big Sky	3
203	Weber State	Big Sky	4
243	Idaho State	Big Sky	5
265	Eastern Wash	Big Sky	6
279	Northern Colorado	Big Sky	7
308	Montana State	Big Sky	8
327	Sacramento St	Big Sky	9

*Click on links for full Top 144 team preview

** returning conference champion

Poll: Who Do You Think Will Win the Big Sky?

Other BIG SKY Content

Conference Media Poll

Other

Rise & Fall: Big Sky

Daily Conference Poll: Who Will Win the Big Sky?

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 09:40:51 -0400

2008-09 Montana Basketball Preview: #112

Joel Welser — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 10:53:06 -0400

Montana Grizzlies

Overall Rank: #112

Conference Rank: #1 Big Sky

2007-08: 14-16, 8-8, 4^th

2007-08 postseason: none

Heading into his third year as the leader of the Montana Grizzlies, Coach Wayne Tinkle is building something special in Missoula. The recruiting has been very good over the last few years and it is about time for that talent to turn into conference championships. However, the championships will not start rolling in until the defense improves.

Who’s Out:

Besides the defense, a lack of experience may be the only thing that could keep the Grizzlies away from the Big Sky championship. Andrew Strait was the big man under the basket and averaged 13.3 points and 6.6 rebounds, ranking second on the team in both categories. Guard Matt Martin started a dozen games and was a solid shooter, usually off the bench and Cameron Rundles has transferred after averaging 6.6 points per game last year. Dave Vanderjagt, Greg Spurgetis and Zach Graves will also not be returning this season after seeing limited action last year.

Who’s In:

Only five players return to the squad, so the newcomers will have to be ready to at least play an important role off the bench. Jack McGillis, a transfer from Oregon State, probably will not have to spend much time on the bench. The former Mr. Basketball in the state of Montana, McGillis spent two years with the Beavers before heading back home. Two years ago he started six games in Corvallis and averaged 5.9 points per game. The 6-6 forward is a decent rebounder as well and should play a big role on this year’s team. Another transfer joins the Grizzlies from Eastern Washington. Michael Taylor started 25 games for the Eagles two years ago and has the experience to contribute immediately. Guard Anthony Johnson and wing Vassy Banny have some experience too. Johnson, a 6-3 guard from Yakima Valley Community College, will add some much needed depth at the point guard position and shooting guard spots and Banny can do a little bit of everything. The large group of incoming freshmen are led by point guard Shawn Stockton and small forward Mathias Ward. Those two, along with wing Tyler Hurley, forward Mathias Ward and big man Derek Selvig, might need some time to adjust to playing in the Big Sky, but there will be some minutes to be had if they can quickly show they are ready.

Who to Watch:

The duo of Strait and Jordan Hasquet dominated the opposing frontcourts in the conference. Now that Strait is gone, the pressure falls on Hasquet. The 6-9 senior led the team with 13.7 points and 7.2 rebounds, is a consistent outside shooter and a decent passer, but he needs to find his partner in crime in the paint. Enter Brian Qvale. The 6-11, 245 pound Williston, North Dakota product averaged 4.0 points and 3.3 rebounds as a freshman last season. Given more playing time, those numbers should increase, but more important than scoring or rebounding is his defense. Qvale tallied 1.5 blocks per game and can spearhead the improved defensive initiative with his long arms and ability to alter shots. Add senior Kyle Sharp, who can play the three, four or five spot, and the Grizzlies have plenty of potential and talent in the frontcourt…even without Strait.

Final Projection:

Ceylon Elgin-Taylor and Ryan Staudacher started a majority of the games in the backcourt during the 2007-2008 campaign. Elgin-Taylor is not a great shooter, but he is a steady floor leader, a good passer and a senior leader. Staudacher is a great shooter. The 6-3 junior knocked down over 45 percent of his attempts from long range as a sophomore and rarely misses a free-throw. Without Matt Martin and Cameron Rundles around, Staudacher carries the scoring burden of the backcourt. And with a frontcourt that can dominate again and a senior running the point, Staudacher and the entire Montana team should be looking at a very successful season.

Projected Post-season Tournament: NCAA

Projected Starting Five:

Ceylon Elgin-Taylor, Senior, Guard, 6.2 points per game

Ryan Staudacher, Junior, Guard, 9.0 points per game

Jack McGillis, Junior, Forward, DNP last season

Jordan Hasquet, Senior, Forward, 13.7 points per game

Brian Qvale, Sophomore, Center, 4.0 points per game

Complete Top 144 Ranking | 2008-09 Preview & Awards | Coach Interviews | Discuss the Preview

Daily Poll: Who Will Win the Big Sky?

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 28 Oct 2007 19:53:37 -0400

2007-08 Montana Basketball Preview

Joel Welser — Mon, 30 Jul 2007 09:12:03 -0400

Montana Grizzlies

Overall Rank: #113

Conference Rank: #1 Big Sky

2006-07: 17-15, 10-6, 3^rd

2006-07 postseason: none

Montana’s high hopes were dashed time and time again last year, but there is still a ton of talent ready to return the Grizzlies to the NCAA Tournament. Andrew Strait and Jordan Hasquet are easily the best frontcourt duo in the Big Sky. Strait averaged 15.0 points and 6.4 rebounds last year while Hasquet added 13.0 points and 6.4 boards. If Strait could hit a free-throw (he shot 52.3 percent last year), he would be nearly impossible to stop.

Who’s Out:

The Grizzlies have a few pieces to replace with the absence of Matt Dlouhy and Bryan Ellis. Dlouhy was third on the team in scoring and rebounding last year and Ellis led the squad with 4.2 assists per contest. Replacing them would not be too tough, but much of the depth off the bench is now gone as well. Forwards Stuart Mayes, Mike Chavez and Gus Chase are gone and wing Austin Swift has opted to transfer.

Who’s In:

That means the newcomers will have to be the guys that are filling in the holes. The most important may end up being Sean Watson. Montana really needs an athletic wing who can get to the basket and Watson is the best option at this point. The versatile 6-5 transfer from Howard College is not afraid to take the ball to rim, but he becomes more dangerous because he has a nice looking shot. Ceylon Elgin-Taylor brings some more toughness to the perimeter. The 6-2 combo guard will show that toughness to the defensive end and that may be enough to get him some playing time right away. However, Elgin-Taylor can also run the show and is not too shabby in the scoring department either. Redshirt freshman Zach Graves will add even more depth to both guard positions. Up front, Derek Selvig and Brian Qvale are hoped to be the next Strait and Hasquet. Selvig, a 6-10 forward, earned Montana’s Gatorade Player of the Year as a high school senior and has all the tools to be a star in the next couple of years. He needs to add a little strength and develop more consistency with his jump shot, but when Selvig hits the floor it will be during meaningful minutes. Qvale is not quite as polished, but the 6-11, 235 pound Williston, North Dakota native is a handful to deal with under the basket. These newcomers do help to fill some of the holes on this year’s roster and the class will likely see another member or two before the season tips off.

Who to Watch:

We know the frontcourt will be good. The perimeter is where there are some concerns. Cameron Rundles had a great freshman campaign, averaging 8.2 points and 2.1 assists. This year, if he can hold off some newcomers, the point guard position should be all his. Rundles shot nearly 48 percent from behind the arc, which was almost as good as Strait at the free-throw line, and there is no reason for him not to get good looks again this year. It is Matt Martin that will likely take most of the shots from long range this year. Martin does not hit at the same rate as Rundles, yet the 6-2 senior is poised for a bigger season than last year. Ryan Staudacher was down the bench a ways as a freshman, but the sharpshooter is expected to provide a spark off the bench.

Final Projection:

There are other teams that deserve to be here as much as Montana, like Weber State, Northern Arizona and Portland State, but the Grizzlies have a frontcourt that can take on any of them. As long as the team can hold defensively against quicker guards, the Grizzlies will be fine. In that regard, it will come down to match-ups against most of the Big Sky opponents and that falls on the shoulders of Coach Wayne Tinkle.

Projected Post-season Tournament: NCAA

Projected Starting Five:

Cameron Rundles, Sophomore, Guard, 8.2 points per game

Matt Martin, Senior, Guard, 6.7 points per game

Sean Watson, Junior, Guard, DNP last season

Jordan Hasquet, Junior, Forward, 13.0 points per game

Andrew Strait, Senior, Center, 15.0 points per game

Complete Top 144 Ranking | 2007-08 Preview | Discuss the Preview

Big Sky Conference Preview

CHN — Wed, 01 Nov 2006 12:32:32 -0500

Conference Previews | Top 144 | 06-07 Preview Home

Big Sky Preview

Conference Rank: 16th

Conference Page

All-Conference

Player of the Year - Rodney Stuckey, EWU, G

David Schroeder, Idaho St, G

Alex Bausley, Sacramento St, F

Ruben Boykin, NAU, F

Andrew Strait, Montana, F/C

Nat'l	Team (Click for Preview)	Conf	Tourney
99	Northern Arizona	1	NCAA
128	Eastern Washington	2
144	Montana	3
172	Portland State	4
194	Sacramento St	5
215	Weber State	6
246	Idaho State	7
279	Montana State	8
321	Northern Colorado	9

Preseason Head Coach Interviews:

Brad Huse - Montana State

Other Big Sky Articles

Big Sky Preseason Coaches & Media Poll

Big Sky Preseason Coaches/Media Poll

Press Release — Wed, 25 Oct 2006 16:37:51 -0400

In very close balloting, Northern Arizona (21-11, 12-2 last season) was picked first in the coaches poll by just one point over Montana (24-7, 10-4). Meanwhile, the Grizzlies were picked first in the media poll by just one point over the Lumberjacks. They were followed by consensus third, fourth and fifth teams, Eastern Washington (15-15, 9-5), Portland State (12-16, 5-9) and Sacramento State (15-15, 5-9).

The 2006-07 Big Sky season will include the addition of new conference member Northern Colorado. UNC, Montana State, Idaho State and Weber State – picked in various order sixth through ninth in the polls – all have new head coaches this season. Northern Colorado will play a full Big Sky schedule, but because of NCAA reclassification requirements, will not be eligible for the regular-season title, or a trip to the postseason.

Coaches’ Poll
School (First-place votes) Points
1. Northern Arizona (4) 59
2. Montana (4) 58
3. Eastern Washington (1) 54
4. Portland State 41
5. Sacramento State 37
6. Weber State 27
7. Idaho State 22
8. Montana State 17
9. Northern Colorado 8

Media Poll
School (First-place votes) Points
1. Montana (9) 233
2. Northern Arizona (13) 232
3. Eastern Washington (7) 222
4. Portland State 149
5. Sacramento State 143
6. Montana State 109
7. Weber State 95
8. Idaho State 93
9. Northern Colorado 30