Northeastern

#102 Northeastern: 2010-11 Basketball Preview

Joel Welser — Tue, 21 Sep 2010 22:03:58 -0400

Overall Rank: #102

Conference Rank: #5 Colonial Athletic Association

2009-10: 20-13, 14-4

2009-10 postseason: NIT

Coach: Bill Coen (66-62 at Northeastern, 66-62 overall)

Northeastern graduates one of its best senior classes ever and they failed to reach their ultimate goals of winning a CAA championship or reaching the NCAA Tournament. Yet, despite the absence of so many quality and experienced players, last season showed that Coach Bill Coen had some talent sitting down his bench that was just not able to find too many minutes. Those that did play, performed very well and this team may not take as big of a step back as many expect.

Key Losses: F Manny Adako, G Baptiste Bataille, G Matt Janning, C Nkem Ojougboh

Key Newcomers:

This is a young team and the freshmen will battle it out with a bunch of sophomores for playing time. Alex Harris is a versatile 6-4 wing who can score and bring the ball up the court. Chris Avenant redshirted last season and his year in the program could be a big help. Power forward Alex Bates and center Ryan Pierson will at least have to provide some quality minutes off the bench this year. It is Pierson who seems most likely to make an impact right away. The 6-10, 235 pound St. Louis, Missouri product already has the strength to compete under the basket and should at least be able to help on the boards while his offense comes around.

Backcourt:

Neither Alwayne Bigby or Joel Smith will be the next Matt Janning, but they are the likely candidates to start on the wing. Bigby started 28 games during his freshman campaign and by the end of the season was a pretty solid all-around player. He was never asked to score much, but he certainly can when given the opportunity. And the opportunity will be there now. The Huskies hope Smith can take over some of the outside shooting left behind by Janning. Smith is a shooter, but it did not look that way most of his freshman campaign. He only averaged seven minutes per game, but if his shot starts falling, Smith could go from 1.9 points per game to double figures pretty easily.

Frontcourt:

The frontcourt has many of the same issues facing them. Like Bigby, Kauri Black played some good ball late in the season and is ready to take the next step. Black, a 6-7 sophomore, only played in 19 contests during his first year with the Huskies, but by the end of the season he was a key player off of the bench. Now he will step into a starting job and have to keep up his offensive output and hit the glass with a little more tenacity. The starting five spot could belong to Vinny Lima just because he is one of two seniors on the roster. Lima has never played too much, but he is a big guy who has enough talent to surprise a few people. Dinko Marshavelski is another one of those sophomores who barely got to play last season. In Marshavelski’s case he needed some time to develop. That time is up now and he will have to play a big role on this team.

Who to Watch:

The player who will hold this team together is the conference’s Player of the Year runner-up, Chaisson Allen. Allen is an experienced senior who will do everything. Last year he averaged 13.6 points, 3.6 assists, 4.7 rebounds and 1.5 steals. He also connected on nearly 40 percent of his attempts from beyond the arc. That is not bad at all for a 6-4 point guard. His size allows him to attack the basket and Allen will be dangerous even if he does not get open looks this season since inevitably the opposing defense will be keying in on him. But Allen is a smart enough player to get the rest of his team involved and even if the opposition can stop Allen from scoring, they will not be able to stop him from penetrating and finding an open teammate.

Final Projection:

There will be some growing pains, but Coach Coen proved last year that he can manage a slow start and still have a great year. The start this year might be a little slower as most of the team adjusts to playing more minutes, but by the end of the season this is a team that can come close to winning 20 games and reach the postseason for the third straight year, albeit not the postseason tournament they would prefer.

Projected Post-season Tournament: CBI/CIT

Projected Starting Five:

Chaisson Allen, Senior, Guard, 13.6 ppg

Joel Smith, Sophomore, Guard, 1.9 ppg

Alwayne Bigby, Sophomore, Guard, 3.2 ppg

Kauri Black, Sophomore, Forward, 2.3 ppg

Vinny Lima, Senior, Forward, 1.2 ppg

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College Basketball Preview - 144 Teams in 144 Days - Alphabetical Ranks/Previews

2010 CollegeHoops.net Mid-Major All-Americans

CHN — Sat, 13 Mar 2010 14:47:23 -0500

Being the best player on a Top 15 team is a recipe for earning CollegeHoops.net's Mid-Major Player of the Year honors. Gordon Hayward averaged 15.4 ppg, 8.5 rpg, and 1.8 apg in leading Butler to a 28-4 record. He's joined on the Mid-Major First Team by CAA Player of the Year Charles Jenkins, Cornell leader Ryan Wittman, and big men Keith Benson of Oakland and Art Parakouski of Radford.

Butler has three players on the list: Hayward, 2nd teamer Shelvin Mack, and Honorable Mention Matt Howard. Other teams with multiple players include Cornell (Wittman & Jeff Foote), IUPUI (Alex Young & Robert Glenn), Northeastern (Matt Janning & Chaisson Allen) Siena (Ryan Franklin & Ryan Rossiter),

CollegeHoops.net Mid-Major Player of the Year:

Gordon Hayward, Butler, So

CollegeHoops.net First-Team Mid-Major All-America
G Charles Jenkins, Hofstra
G Gordon Hayward, Butler
G/F Ryan Wittman, Cornell
F Keith Benson, Oakland
C Artsiom Parakhouski, Radford

Second-Team Mid-Major All-America

G Shelvin Mack, Butler
G CJ McCollumn, Lehigh
F Kenneth Faired, Morehead St
F Alex Young, IUPUI
C Adnan Hodzic, Lipscomb

Third-Team Mid-Major All-America
G David Kool, Western Michigan
G Damian Lillard, Weber St
F Marqus Blakely, Vermont
F Larry Sanders, VCU
F Alex Franklin, Siena

Fourth-Team Mid-Major All-America

G Gerald Lee, Old Dominion

G Matt Janning, Northeastern

F Tyren Johnson, Louisiana-Lafayette
F Charles Garcia, Seattle
F Orlando Johnson, UCSB

Honorable Mention

Chaisson Allen, Northeastern

Noah Dahlman, Wofford
Rahmon Fletcher, UWGB
Jeff Foote, Cornell

Robert Glenn, IUPUI

Andrew Goudelock, Charleston

Joseph Harris, Coastal Carolina
Marquez Haynes, UT-Arlington

John Holland, Boston U

Reggie Holmes, Morgan St

Anthony Johnson, Montana

Matt Howard, Butler

Jeremy Lin, Harvard

Ashton Mitchell, Sam Houston St

Derek Needham, Fairfield

TJ Robinson, LBSU

Ryan Rossiter, Siena
David Schneider, William & Mary

Chris Singletary, Kent St
AJ Slaughter, Western Kentucky
Ben Smith, Jacksonville
Ryan Thompson, Rider

G Dominic Waters, Portland St

Northeastern 2010 NIT Capsule

Joel Welser — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 21:34:26 -0500

Northeastern Huskies

Colonial Athletic Association (20-12, 14-4)

Big Wins: 11/21 Utah State (64-61), 12/30 vs Kent State (61-58), 1/30 ODU (74-64)

Bad Losses: 11/25 at Boston U (64-69), 12/23 vs Western Michigan (60-75), 1/27 Drexel (48-61)

Coach: Bill Coen

Why They Can Surprise:

Northeastern has progressed quickly under Coach Bill Coen and with a senior heavy team, the Huskies have not disappointed. It has taken some time, but Coach Coen has created a team that takes care of the ball and takes smart shots. Chaisson Allen is the catalyst of the offense and dishes out 3.7 assists per contest. Allen is more than simply a point guard though, he is also a superb scorer who connects on an impressive 40.6 percent of his attempts from long range.

Surprisingly though, Allen is not the team’s leading scorer. That honor goes to Matt Janning. The 6-4 senior is a capable outside shooter, but is not nearly as consistent from long range as Allen. Janning is more effective attacking the basket or driving the lane and pulling up for a mid-range jumper. Allen and Janning are both solid ballhandlers and it will be important for Northeastern to keep control of the ball if they hope to pull off an upset.

Why They Can Disappoint:

And the Huskies need all the possessions they can get since they are often outrebounded. Nkem Ojougboh has developed into a fine rebounder and an effective scorer, but he cannot do it all by himself. Ojougboh is also the team’s lone shot blocking threat and has really stepped up his game for his senior season. Manny Adako will be starting next to Ojougboh. Adako is a great interior scorer and his presence on the offensive end opens up space for Janning and Allen on the perimeter, but he is not very effective on the glass. The lack of depth up front is the main reason for the lack of rebounding. Kauri Black, a 6-7 freshman, is the only forward left on the roster who plays any significant minutes and he has been very inconsistent since he started playing in January.

Who To Watch:

Alwayne Bigby is a wing who has stepped into the starting lineup and has become the glue guy. He is not much of a scorer, but he is a solid defender and gives the team some more size on the perimeter. Baptiste Bataille is another intriguing guard. Like Bigby, Bataille lets Janning and Allen do most of the perimeter scoring, but Bataille is a solid ball handler and is capable of doing some scoring from beyond the arc or by using his speed to get to the basket.

Probable Starters:

Chaisson Allen, Junior, Guard, 13.7 ppg, 3.7 apg, 4.8 rpg

Matt Janning, Senior, Guard, 15.3 ppg, 3.1 apg, 1.6 spg

Alwayne Bigby, Freshman, Guard, 3.3 ppg, 1.8 rpg

Manny Adako, Senior, Forward, 11.1 ppg, 4.3 rpg

Nkem Ojougboh, Senior, Center, 9.2 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 2.3 bpg

Key Roleplayers:

Baptiste Bataille, Senior, Guard, 5.5 ppg, 1.5 apg

Kauri Black, Freshman, Forward, 2.4 ppg, 1.9 rpg

By the Numbers:

Scoring Offense: 64.6 (263^rd in nation, 9^th in conference)

Scoring Defense: 60.1 (15, 2)

Field-Goal Percentage: 45.0 (92, 2)

Field-Goal Defense: 41.1 (73, 4)

Three-Point Field Goals Per Game: 5.3 (256, 8)

Three-Point Field-Goal Percentage: 34.5 (150, 4)

Free-Throw Percentage: 72.0 (72, 2)

Rebound Margin: -2.7 (272, 11)

Assists Per Game: 12.0 (241, 9)

Turnovers Per Game: 11.9 (44, 2)

Follow Joel Welser's Postseason Capsules & College Basketball Previews on Twitter @Joel_Welser and on his Facebook page. Joel will be back in June for his annual Top 144 Teams in 144 Days preview on CollegeHoops.net

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BracketBusters Saturday: Your Commentary

Raphielle Johnson — Fri, 19 Feb 2010 23:03:38 -0500

FRIDAY RECAP
Northern Iowa 71, Old Dominion 62
The Panthers won their second straight without center Jordan Egleseder, knocking off the Monarch in Cedar Falls behind a 23-point night from Ali Farokhmanesh. Farokhmanesh hit five of nine shots from behind the arc and Kwadzo Ahelegbe added ten points. Gerald Lee led the Monarchs with 19 points but it wasn't enough to prevent ODU's first loss in the BracketBusters event.

Iona 69, William & Mary 53
The Gaels dealt the Tribe's at-large hopes a serious blow with a thorough beating in New Rochelle. Scott Machado led three Iona players in double figures with 17 points while Alejo Rodriguez and Jonathan Huffman added twelve apiece. David Schneider scored 17 to lead William & Mary but as a team they shot just 36.2% from the field.

SATURDAY PREVIEW

Nine televised games to be had on the ESPN family of networks with Siena and Butler kicking things off at Hinkle Fieldhouse. The most important player for the Saints if they're to win: shooting guard Clarence Jackson, who slid into the spot vacated by the graduation of Saints great Kenny Hasbrouck. When the Marlton, NJ native is on he can hit just about any shot in the gym but when he isn't Siena lacks one offensive weapon with the ability to be the ultimate "trump card". He will most certainly be tested by Shelvin Mack and with the two teams matching up well at the other positions this one likely determines the outcome. Also, keep an eye on Matt Howard's foul count. The Bulldogs got into trouble early in the year when he got into foul trouble and with Siena using three different players to guard him he's got to stay on the floor.

The final game of the night is also an intriguing affair with Wichita State taking on Utah State in one of the nation's best environments (which should be noted when looking at Saint Mary's since they won there). The Shockers still have the stigma of losing to previously winless Evansville a short time back, likely tossing away their at-large hopes in the process. A win in Logan would most certainly put them back into the conversation if not move them just short of "lock" status. But they'll have to deal with the tandem of forward Tai Wesley and point guard Jared Quayle, two of the best players out west. If Wichita State is to win they'll need to value the basketball and keep their heads on a swivel defensively; Stew Morrill's team runs an offensive system with enough sets to make NFL offensive coordinators jealous.

As for games not part of the televised portion of the event there are some intriguing matchups as well. Fairfield visits Vermont in a matchup of two teams that could very well make runs in their respective conference tournaments. Ed Cooley's Stags do as good a job as anyone at shrugging off injuries and simply competing; add in one of the best freshmen in America in guard Derek Needham and you have a team that's given Siena a hard time in both of their meetings. Mike Lonergan's Catamounts are a contender in America East thanks in large part to the conference's best player, forward Marqus Blakely. This should be one of the better games of the day despite the fact that it won't be televised nationally. Some have the ability to improve their at-large profiles while others are simply in need of a confidence-boosting win going into their league tournament, which should make for an entertaining day of basketball.

TV GAMES

11a ESPN2 Siena at Butler
Noon ESPNU Morgan St at Murray St
1p ESPN2 Louisiana Tech at Northeastern
3p ESPN2 Nevada at Missouri St
4p ESPNU Akron at VCU
8p ESPN2 College of Charleston at George Mason
8p ESPNU Western Carolina at Kent St
10p ESPNU New Mexico St at Pacific
11:59p ESPN2 Wichita St at Utah St

OTHER GAMES

2p Fairfield at Vermont
2p Buffalo at Saint Peter's
3:05p Western Michigan at Southern Illinois
4p Wright St at Ohio
4p Rider at Hofstra
5:05p Morehead St at Illinois St
7p Winthrop at Eastern Kentucky
8p Niagara at Milwaukee
8p Indiana St at Green Bay
8:05p Drexel at Bradley
8:30p Oral Roberts at Austin Peay
9p San Jose St at Montana St
10:30p UC Santa Barbara at Fresno St

ONE PREDICTION

Louisiana Tech over Northeastern: The Bulldogs nearly left Utah State with a win earlier this week; Kerry Rupp's team has one of the best tandems in the WAC in guard Kyle Gibson and forward Magnum Rolle. They will be tested by a Northeastern squad led by Matt Janning and Chaisson Allen but they've got the mettle required to win on the road in an unfamiliar environment. Bulldogs by four.

College Basketball Odds & Predictions: Tuesday

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 02 Feb 2010 12:13:37 -0500

Betting odds are a great guide to college basketball entertainment. I'll discuss my daily predictions after the lines.. these are posted solely for fun, as I do not bet on games myself, nor do I suggest anybody else does either (it's not easy). If you agree or disagree with my picks, have thoughts on the day's lines, or have upsets or picks to announce, post them below.

February 2nd: College Basketball Lines & Predictions

- listed are the day's 6 most popular/intriguing games. I only predict games from this pool due to fan interest.

7:00

Michigan
at Northwestern

Favorite

Northwestern by 1.5

Over/Under

125

7:00

Providence
vs Syracuse

Favorite

Syracuse by 15

Over/Under

168.5

7:00

Mississippi
vs Kentucky

Favorite

Kentucky by 11

Over/Under

150.5

7:00

Seton Hall
at Villanova

Favorite

Villanova by 10

Over/Under

166.5

7:00

Miami-Florida
at Wake Forest

Favorite

Wake Forest by 6.5

Over/Under

142

9:00

Michigan St
at Wisconsin

Favorite

Wisconsin by 2

Over/Under

123.5

- Lines as of 11:30 am (from BetUS) - Check out the day's full set of odds as the day progresses. Predictions below:

College Hoops Thursday Recap: Michigan Storms Back

Raphielle Johnson — Fri, 08 Jan 2010 12:38:58 -0500

While much of the country was caught up in the hoopla that was the BCS Championship Game, an amazing comeback was taking place at Penn State. The Nittany Lions looked to be well on their way to their first Big Ten win of the season, leading a cold-shooting Michigan at the half 31-16. But if you're familiar with John Beilein-coached teams you know that at the snap of a finger they can heat up from the field. And that's exactly what happened in the second half, as the Wolverines outscored their opponents 48-24 in the final twenty minutes on their way to a 64-55 victory. DeShawn Sims led the way with 25 points and Laval Lucas-Perry knocked down four key three pointers in the comeback.

Down 42-26 with just over twelve minutes left in the game after a Chris Babb three pointer the Wolverines outscored Penn State 38-13 for the remainder of the contest. What also helped Michigan was their defense on All-Big Ten performer Talor Battle, who went scoreless in the second half and finished with nine points. Penn State also finished the game with seventeen turnovers, something that doesn't harm you much when your opponent goes 0-for-12 from behind the arc as Michigan did in the first half. But when they recover to shoot 7-for-12 in the second half you're in trouble.

Despite Penn State's 0-3 league record this is a huge win for the Wolverines, who moved to 2-1 on the season. Instead of fighting for their lives simply to stay above water following a loss they host Minnesota on Sunday with a chance to move to 3-1 and pick up a solid resume win in the process.

Three Key Happenings

1. Northeastern continues George Mason's road woes. Of course the Patriots did win a road game in league play, beating UNC Wilmington. But to be frank the Seahawks aren't likely to be a player in the CAA race. The wins over Old Dominion and Hofstra followed a serious beating at the hands of Radford, and George Mason fell to 1-4 on the road with their 71-46 loss at Northeastern last night. Chase Allen was the star for Bill Coen's squad, leading the Huskies in scoring with twenty points. Ryan Pearson led GMU with 20 points and 10 rebounds but he really didn't receive much help; no player scored more than seven points (Cam Long) and as a team the Patriots shot 37.7% from the field. If George Mason is to remain a contender in the CAA their offensive execution on the road has to improve against the other contenders for the conference title.

As for the Huskies, it was easy for some to forget about how good this team is in light of their less than stellar non-conference record. But keep in mind the teams they took on in those games, facing the likes of Siena, Utah State, Rhode Island, Saint Mary's and Providence. Matt Janning is one of the more versatile players you'll see and the frontcourt has a pair of solid contributors in Manny Adako and Nkem Ojougboh. Now they're part of a five-way tie for first place and it should be of no surprise that they're in that position.

2. Long Island takes over sole possession of first place in the NEC. The matchup between the Blackbirds and Robert Morris matched two of the three undefeated teams in the league, and that came in seemingly headed in different directions. The Colonials were riding a three-game win streak due to the emergence of some key role players and the improvement of senior Rob Robinson, and this was despite the loss of Jimmy Langhurst for the rest of the season. LIU on the other hand had lost six straight, a stretch that featured the two-game suspension of their best player (Jaytornah Wisseh) and a suddenly porous defense. Well, the recent trends went out with the night's refuse thanks to Kyle Johnson, who scored 22 points and grabbed eight rebounds in LIU's 74-64 win in Brooklyn.

Michael Culpo gave RMU a 44-41 lead with a three pointer but all that did was trigger a 14-2 LIU run that gave the Blackbirds the lead for good. In seasons past LIU would lean heavily upon Wisseh to make things happen; they don't have to do that this season. Johnson has been a steady force alongside Wisseh in the backcourt and freshmen Jamal Olawasere and Kenny Onyechi have played well enough to merit serious consideration for NEC Rookie of the Year honors. They were expected to be a factor in the race despite the loss of some key players expected to contribute this season (Aurimas Adomaitis, Lucas Faggiano and Julian Boyd), and they showed exactly why last night.

3. Western Kentucky wins in overtime at South Alabama. In a game matching two contenders in the Sun Belt the Hilltoppers remained undefeated in league play with a 67-64 overtime win in Mobile (their second consecutive season beating USA on the road). AJ Slaughter led the way with eighteen points, including a three pointer that gave the Tops a 65-64 lead in the extra session and Steffphon Pettigrew added seventeen and made the two free throws that sealed it. There wasn't much that separated these two, as is the case when they meet. Last season the visitors won both regular season meetings, which could bode well for Ronnie Arrow's squad when the meet again on February 18th. WKU has played just two league games to the Jaguars' four and those games in hand could be the difference in this race; there are teams in the Sun Belt (Arkansas State and Denver being two of the many) who can spoil either teams' run to a regular season title.

Top Three Games

1. Western Kentucky 67, South Alabama 64 (OT) See above.

2. Quinnipiac 64, Mount St. Mary's 63 Two James Feldeine (18 points) free throws sealed the game for the Bobcats, and it's a good thing that he made both as Jeremy Goode (game-high 24 points) hit a three-pointer with one second left on the clock. The Mount, preseason favorites to win the league, drops to 0-3 in the NEC.

3. Coastal Carolina 58, UNC Asheville 57 A Chad Gray jumper with 5.5 seconds left in the game won it for the Chanticleers, who move to 5-0 in the Big South as a result. Gray scored 18 off the bench to lead the way while J.P. Primm led Asheville with 18 points of his own.

Three Notable Performances

1. F Jonathan Rodriguez (Campbell) The senior posted the line of 24 points, 10 rebounds, five assists and four steals in the Camels' 82-73 loss at Mercer.

2. F Jeremy Buttrell (Illinois-Chicago) Buttrell scored 31 points and grabbed 12 rebounds in the Flames' 76-67 loss at Youngstown State. As a team UIC finished with twenty-six rebounds.

3. G Nate Rohnert (Denver) One of the Sun Belt's most versatile players, Rohnert scored 27 points while adding seven assists, three rebounds and three steals in the Pioneers' 75-66 win over New Orleans.

CAA Basketball Preview: 2009-10

CHN — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 15:55:26 -0500

With four teams legitimately battling for the CAA title, and top-notch players like Charles Jenkins and Chad Tomko on lesser teams, the CAA season should be one to remember.

Conference Rank: 13th

10 year average: 14th

CAA Conference Page

All-CAA Team
Pos.	Player	Team	Yr.

G	Charles Jenkins	Hofstra	Jr
G	Chad Tomko	UNC Wilmington	Sr
G/F	Matt Janning	Northeastern	Sr
F	Gerald Lee	Old Dominion	Sr
F	Larry Sanders	VCU	Jr

Player of the Year - Charles Jenkins Freshman of the Year - Luke Hancock (George Mason)
CHN Award Winners		Leaders
CHN All-Americans Larry Sanders Mid-Major All-Americans Charles Jenkins (2nd Team) Larry Sanders (2nd) Matt Janning Gerald Lee		Best Scorer Charles Jenkins 19.7 Best Rebounder: Larry Sanders Assists: Darius James

CAA Standings
Nat'l	Team	League	Tourney

48	Old Dominion	Colonial	1	NCAA
66	George Mason	Colonial	2	NIT
83	VCU	Colonial	3	NIT
102	Northeastern	Colonial	4	CBI/CIT
125	James Madison	Colonial	5	CBI/CIT
162	Hofstra	Colonial	6
172	Drexel	Colonial	7
229	Georgia State	Colonial	8
244	William & Mary	Colonial	9
251	Towson	Colonial	10
278	Delaware	Colonial	11
292	UNC Wilmington	Colonial	12

*Click on links for full Top 144 team preview

Poll: Who Do You Think Will Win the CAA?

College Basketball Preview - 348 Team Ranking - Alphabetical Ranks/Previews

Poll: Who Will Win the CAA?

Shawn Siegel — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 12:01:12 -0400

Northeastern Basketball Preview: #102

Joel Welser — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 10:45:24 -0400

Overall Rank: #102

Conference Rank: #4 Colonial Athletic Association

2008-09: 19-13, 12-6

2008-09 postseason: CBI

Coach: Bill Coen (46-46 at Northeastern, 46-46 overall)

Whether you want to believe the beginning of the year was luck, or that Northeastern simply lacked the depth to finish strong, the Huskies ended the 2008-2009 campaign in disappointment. They looked like the best team in the league by far until February when everything started going wrong. The team lost four of their last five conference games and was knocked out of the conference tournament in their first game.

Key Losses: F Chris Alvarez, G Matt Smith, F Eugene Spates

Key Newcomers:

With the loss of one starter and a couple key contributors off the bench, Northeastern must find much of their depth among the group of newcomers. Kostadin Marchlevski, a 6-10, 240 pound forward, is the most highly touted of the bunch. Marchlevski is not the most physical player around, but he can hit the outside shot and do some damage around the basket. Fellow forward Kauri Black is another option. In the backcourt Alwayne Bigby leads a group that also includes Joel Smith and Jonathan Lee.

Backcourt:

Northeastern has one of the best backcourt duos in the nation in Chaisson Allen and Matt Janning. Allen is the point guard who can also score and hit the glass like he’s a seven-footer; yet, it is Janning who is the star of this team. The 6-4 wing led the team with 14.3 points per game and added 2.7 assists, 4.7 rebounds and 1.5 steals during his junior campaign. His senior season should be even better. The problem is those two each played at least 34.6 minutes per game. Baptiste Bataille can fill in some minutes when necessary, but Coach Bill Coen will need him to be more productive or the backcourt will be worn out by February once again.

Frontcourt:

Janning and Allen get most of the headlines, but Manny Adako and Nkem Ojougboh are a formidable duo in the frontcourt. Adako is the better scorer and he could put up over 15 points per game if he was more aggressive around the basket and got to the charity stripe more than 2.2 times per contest. Ojougboh is the best shot blocker on the team, but he still averaged less than one per game. Heading into the 2008-2009 season it looked like Ojougboh could average a double-double, but instead he averaged just 7.4 points and 4.6 rebounds. He will still be a very valuable player due to his defensive skills, but it would be beneficial if he could turn into a more consistent scorer with his back to the basket.

Who to Watch:

Vinny Lima averaged a mere 8.8 minutes per game last year, but he could be the most important player on this team. Eugene Spates was the most prolific outside shooter on the team last year from the small forward position and totaled 7.4 points and 4.6 rebounds and it will be up to Lima to continue where Spates left off. Lima has the ability to hit the outside shot, but he is 6-10 and certainly cannot defend most small forwards in the CAA. That would move Adako to the three spot and that could cause some problems as well on the defensive end.

Final Projection:

The other option would be to put the more experienced Bataille in the starting lineup and move Janning to the wing. Not only would that give the team two ballhandlers on the floor, but it puts the team’s five most experienced players in the starting lineup. But no matter who starts, this Northeastern team looks a lot like they did last year and that means the entire team could be tired by the end of the season. While the starting five might be the best in the league, Northeastern will have to rely on unproven newcomers to fill in the gaps.

Projected Post-season Tournament: CBI/CIT

Projected Starting Five:

Chaisson Allen, Junior, Guard, 10.4 points per game

Baptiste Bataille, Senior, Guard, 3.5 points per game

Matt Janning, Senior, Guard, 14.3 points per game

Manny Adako, Senior, Forward, 11.3 points per game

Nkem Ojougboh, Senior, Forward, 7.4 points per game

College Basketball Preview - 144 Teams in 144 Days - Preview Interviews

CAA Championship: Preview & Prediction

Evan Dorey — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 12:10:25 -0500

This is one in a series of conference tournament previews, in which I run down all the teams involved, give a brief statistical review and present the log5 projections, using in-conference offensive and defensive efficiency. The basic log5 methodology comes from Bill James, and this is an area Ken Pomeroy has looked at in the past as well. I claim nothing new in the application, but obviously with slightly different methodologies, these numbers may differ from others you find. I don’t claim to be an expert on any particular conference, and I’m sure there are some mis-characterizations on some players I’ve seen sparingly at best, so please add your thoughts in the comments. Anyway, with no further ado, the preview follows below:

Colonial Athletic

The CAA Tournament gives semifinal byes to the top 4 teams, and all games are hosted in Richmond; not in VCU’s home arena, but only a few minutes away. For that reason, I’ve decided to treat the games as semi-home games, giving a partial bonus to VCU’s chances.

#	Team	QF	SF	F	W
1	Virginia Commonwealth	100.00%	94.56%	83.70%	58.63%
2	George Mason	100.00%	83.28%	52.85%	22.67%
3	Northeastern	100.00%	70.20%	33.03%	11.76%
4	Old Dominion	100.00%	65.32%	10.70%	2.94%
5	Hofstra	89.78%	34.02%	3.86%	0.74%
6	Drexel	86.17%	28.77%	9.19%	2.16%
7	James Madison	76.07%	15.00%	4.62%	0.85%
8	Georgia St.	46.20%	2.32%	0.69%	0.08%
9	Delaware	53.80%	3.12%	1.03%	0.14%
10	William & Mary	23.93%	1.72%	0.22%	0.02%
11	Towson	13.83%	1.03%	0.08%	0.00%
12	NC Wilmington	10.22%	0.66%	0.01%	0.00%

VCU is indeed the favorite, as we’d expect from the hosts and champions, but I was rather surprised just how good its odds are. Both GMU and Northeastern will provide tough potential challenges, while ODU are primed for an early defeat, and Drexel could be a bit of a Cinderella.

#1 – Virginia Commonwealth Rams (21-9, 14-4) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.165

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2008 (2^nd Round)

With the tournament being hosted in Richmond, VCU will be heavily favored to back up its regular season crown with a CAA tournament title. The Rams are the conference’s best defenders, holding opponents to just 38% shooting, and leading the league in forcing turnovers. They also don’t commit many turnovers themselves, and are very good three point shooters, but their rebounding leaves something to be desired.

Players to watch:

6-2 SR Eric Maynor, 22.4 PPG, 3.6 RPG,6.2 APG, 1.8 SPG, 52.3 eFG% - There aren’t many conferences in the country where the player of the year is quite this clear-cut, but I don’t think anyone could make a reasonable argument that there’s been any CAA player better than Maynor. He leads the conference in scoring and in assists, and manages to shoot an excellent percentage despite taking almost a third of his team’s shots. His assist total is pretty good, but his rate is even better, one of the very best in the nation, and he manages to distribute the ball while rarely turning it over. When he was the ‘Dagger’ against Duke, he was a good player, but now he’s stepped up to be one of the very best scorers in the country.

6-9 SO Larry Sanders, 11.2 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 2.6 BPG, 51.5 eFG% - There’s not a lot of space to be a great player with Maynor on your team, but Sanders has managed to do it, one of the conference’s best rebounders and shot-blockers. He’s a pretty solid offensive contributor; a good inside foil for Maynor, but he often struggles with foul trouble, and without him the Rams are a lot more vulnerable inside.

#2 – George Mason Patriots (20-9, 13-5) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.143

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2008 (1^st Round)

The Patriots played fairly poorly on the road all season, and a couple of bad losses left them short of the conference title. They actually won every game they played on their home floor, but a 2-4 stretch in the middle of the conference season was a killer to their chances. George Mason has had the CAA’s best offense, shooting over 52% from inside the arc and avoiding turnovers, and its defense has also been solid: the Patriots cause opponents a lot of problems on long-range shots.

Players to watch:

6-7 SR Darryl Monroe, 10.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG,1.2 SPG, 57.9 eFG% - Monroe may be a senior, but he’s a Ju-Co transfer who arrived the year after the run to the Final Four. After redshirting last season, he’s looking for his first NCAA appearance, and has been a big player for the Patriots, leading the team in rebounding while shooting a stellar 58% from the field.

6-4 SO Cameron Long, 11.8 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 3.2 APG, 54.0 eFG% - Long is the team’s leading scorer, and one of the few Patriots who is a serious three-point threat. He’s also a solid inside shooter who can chip in with some assists, and while he often doesn’t score a whole lot, he can easily break out for 15-20 points.

#3 – Northeastern Huskies (18-11, 12-6) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.112

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1991 (1^st Round)

Northeastern looked like it would have the inside track for a conference title when it sat at 10-1, with just one game left against the other top contenders. The Husky offense came unravelled down the stretch, though, and a few bad losses dropped it to third. They are the only team that looks like challenging the top two, but may not have the form to get to the final. It’s tempting to say that Northeastern has an excellent defensive team, but that’s mostly due to its slow pace; the Huskies have been better on the offensive end, decent shooters who earn a lot of points at the free throw line. They do force a lot of turnovers, but aren’t great rebounders and allow opponents to shoot 34% from behind the arc.

Players to watch:

6-4 JR Matt Janning, 14.3 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 47.4 eFG% - Janning leads the Huskies in scoring, but hasn’t been a particularly effective player, just barely making a third of his threes and well south of 50% on his two-pointers. He doesn’t contribute too much in other areas of the box-score, and in the last few games has seen his scoring fall off.

6-4 Chaisson Allen, 9.8 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 3.0 APG, 1.7 SPG, 44.9 eFG% - Allen is a pretty weak shooter, and doesn’t score much, but leads the Huskies in rebounds, assists and steals, though a lot of this has more to do with how much he plays, as his rates in those areas are fairly pedestrian.

#4 – Old Dominion Monarchs (20-9, 12-6) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.032

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2007 (1^st Round)

From sitting at 5-5 with a month to go in the season, the Monarchs put together as good a run as any team in the conference, losing just once the rest of the way. Old Dominion takes the ball inside a lot, and while it doesn’t make a huge percentage of shots, it does crash the offensive glass really well. Its free throw shooting may be a liability down the stretch, among the worst in the league. While the Monarchs are good at attacking inside, their defense isn’t nearly as good on the interior, though it does defend the outside well; forcing a lot of turnovers and rarely fouling.

Players to watch:

6-10 JR Gerald Lee, 15.7 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 57.0 eFG% - It’s rare to find a 6-10 player at this level who isn’t a great rebounder, but that’s exactly what Lee has been. The Finnish national’s strength is in his offensive game, as he’s a 57% shooter who sees a lot of the ball.

6-5 SO Ben Finney, 10.8 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 1.6 SPG, 53.6 eFG% - Finney may be five inches shorter than Lee, but he has out-rebounded him on the season, and has easily been the team’s best player on the offensive glass. He’s also a pretty efficient scorer, having a decent three-point touch to go with good scoring ability inside. His 58% free throw shooting is a big problem, though.

#5 – Hofstra Pride (20-10, 11-7) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.010

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2001 (1^st Round)

Hofstra has the honor of being Ken Pomeroy’s luckiest team in the entire country, as it’s been outscored by an average of two points in conference play, and yet finished fifth in the standings. The Pride lucked out with a weak draw, but don’t look likely to challenge the better teams. They have one of the conference’s weakest offenses, as they are both terrible shooters (including 43% from two) and turn the ball over a lot. The one bright spot is rebounding, but when you miss as often as the Pride do, it’s not that much of a benefit. Hofstra has some serious defensive problems as well, committing a lot of fouls and allowing opponents to score pretty easily from behind the arc.

Players to watch:

6-3 SO Charles Jenkins, 19.2 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 4.2 APG, 1.5 SPG, 42.9 eFG% - Jenkins is second in the CAA in scoring, though this is more about the sophomore’s role in the offense than his ability to shoot. His percentages are decent but not great, though an 81% showing at the stripe sure helps. Still, he’s an excellent distributor of the ball who can potentially go off for a big number, and has twice put up more than 30 in the month of February.

6-10 SO Greg Washington, 5.5 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 2.3 BPG, 49.6 eFG% - Washington doesn’t score much, but he doesn’t need to, as the core of his game is rebounding, where he leads the team despite often playing less than 20 minutes, and shot-blocking, where he puts up one of the best rates in the country. Watch out for the Dragons in two years, when both Jenkins and Washington are seniors.

#6 – Drexel Dragons (15-13, 10-8) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.050

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1996 (2^nd Round)

If you want to pick a team outside the top 4 that could cause a surprise, Drexel might be worth a shot, though a 2-5 finish to the conference season doesn’t give much hope to its chances. The Dragons managed to break the .500 mark despite being one of the country’s worst shooting teams. There are two reasons: they are good offensive rebounders, and their opponents have been just about as bad making shots as the Dragons have. It’s very rare to see a team lead the conference in two-point defense and finish last in two-point offense, but somehow Drexel manages it.

Players to watch:

5-10 SO Jamie Harris, 8.0 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 48.0 eFG% - Harris is Drexel’s most efficient player, and when you consider that he turns the ball over a fair amount and shoots just 41% from two-point range, this is something that should really concern the Dragons. He’s the team’s only three-point shooter who hits more than a third of attempts, but his role in the offense is too small to really help the team.

6-3 SR Scott Rodgers, 13.7 PPG,5.1 RPG, 3.1 APG, 39.0 eFG% - Rodgers is a little better than his pathetic eFG% would suggest, leading the team in assists and putting up a pretty good percentage at the free throw line, but he still wastes a lot of possessions on missed shots.

#7 – James Madison Dukes (18-13, 9-9) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.022

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1994 (1^st Round)

James Madison is a deserved .500 team, finishing pretty close to even in EM over the course of the conference schedule. It’s a pretty good shooting team that turns the ball over a lot, and it also manages to hold opponents to a conference-best 28% from behind the arc. The Dukes’ problem has been defending the inside, as their inability to stop shots or get a lot of rebounds has held them back.

Players to watch:

6-3 JR Pierre Curtis, 8.5 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 2.8 APG, 52.9 eFG% - Curtis doesn’t tend to take a lot of shots, but has a good percentage on the ones he does take, and manages to get to the free throw line a lot, where he’s an 81% shooter.

6-6 SR Juwann James, 15.8 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 59.7 eFG% - James missed much of the month of November, but on his return he brought an excellent dimension to the Dukes’ offense, shooting nearly 60% from the field and doing a great job on the offensive glass. He’s averaged 20 points in the month of February, and is the team’s best offensive threat.

#8 – Georgia St. Panthers (11-19, 8-10) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.058

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2001 (2^nd Round)

Now that we’ve reached the #8 seed, the teams begin to head south, with all sporting fairly large negative efficiency margins. All the teams previously discussed had defended at at least a point-per-possession or better, with Georgia St. being the first to fall short of that standard. The Panthers are a decent shooting team from the field, but have hit under 60% from the free throw line, and have been poor offensive rebounders. Defensively, opponents take a lot of long distance shots against Georgia St., which probably works out for the best, given how weak its interior play has been.

Players to watch:

6-1 SR Joe Dukes, 12.3 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 4.4 APG, 1.8 SPG, 47.3 eFG% - Dukes leads the team in points, assists and steals, but his shooting has been somewhat spotty, and his role has gradually shrunk over the course of the season.

6-0 JR Trae Goldston, 11.0 PPG, 1.5 RPG, 50.9 eFG% - Goldston’s overall numbers have been pretty solid, but he’s tended to be very inconsistent, with periods where he’s a big scorer sandwiched between stretches where his shot hasn’t been going. If he’s on, he can put up 15-20 on any team in the tournament, but that’s a pretty big if.

#9 – Delaware Blue Hens (13-18, 6-12) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.046

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1999 (1^st Round)

Delaware may sit towards the bottom of the conference standings, but it certainly has the potential to cause some upsets, as it is the only team outside the top four to have beaten both George Mason and VCU this season. The Blue Hens put up a lot of threes (something we’ll see often towards the bottom of the conference), and make them at a pretty good clip, but have little interior presence, especially in terms of rebounding. They tend to give opponents a big possession advantage, through the dangerous combination of not grabbing misses and forcing few turnovers.

Players to watch:

6-6 SR Marc Egerson, 15.5 PPG, 10.4 RPG, 1.4 SPG, 48.5 eFG% - The conferences’ leading rebounder, Egerson is the only man in the CAA to average a double-double, but doesn’t do it in the way you might expect, as he’s an excellent defensive rebounder who gets a lot of offense from behind the arc.

5-10 JR Brian Johnson, 10.2 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 5.0 APG, 53.6 eFG% - Johnson has been a very solid guard for the Hens, especially down the stretch, averaging nearly 15 points in his last eight games. He’s a 40% three point shooter who gets a lot of assists, while controlling turnovers fairly effectively.

#10 – William & Mary Tribe (10-19, 5-13) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.075

Last NCAA Tournament bid: None

The Tribe enter the tournament on what is for them a roll, having crawled their way back to respectability after a 1-10 start. Frankly, you wouldn’t expect very much out of a team that takes most of its shots from behind the arc, but shoots just 31% from there. They’ve been an OK defensive team, but have allowed opponents to shoot pretty well from long-distance. The change in William & Mary’s recent positive stretch has been putting together better shooting with control of turnovers; they’d occasionally done each thing for the first part of the season, but getting them to happen in the same game was uncommon until the last month or so.

Players to watch:

6-3 JR David Schneider, 14.4 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 2.8 APG, 1.3 SPG, 44.7 eFG% - Schnieder is an ugly shooter, just 35% overall and 30% from behind the arc, but he puts up a good assist rate while committing few turnovers (just 43 all season), which ends up making him a pretty efficient player despite his problems.

6-5 FR Quinn McDowell, 9.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 57.8 eFG% - McDowell doesn’t play a huge role in the offense as a freshman, but when he does takes shots, he usually hits them, putting up the highest three-point shooting numbers on the team and hitting 57% of his shots inside.

#11 – Towson Tigers (10-21, 5-13) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.107

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1991 (1^st Round)

Towson has had a difficult season, and are deserved 11^th place finishers after having a lot of trouble of the defensive end. Teams have been able to exploit the Tigers inside , shooting 52%, and they don’t do anything else well enough to make up for those troubles. Their offense has been respectable, not making a lot of shots, but getting a lot of chances by limiting turnovers and picking up a good number of rebounds.

Players to watch:

6-8 SR Junior Hairston, 12.9 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.9 BPG, 47.1 eFG% - If Hairston took less three-pointers, he’d be one of the conference’s better players overall, but with his 30% shooting serving as an anchor to his efficiency, he’ll have to settle for excellent rebounding and block rates. He also holds onto the ball pretty well, and his shooting is the only serious weakness in his statistical profile.

6-7 JR Jarrel Smith, 11.1 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 46.4 eFG% - Smith doesn’t have any particular area in which he’s that strong, but he’s a decent shooter who doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, which is a relative rarity on this team.

#12 – NC Wilmington Seahawks (7-24, 3-15) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.075

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2006 (1^st Round)

The Seahawks have easily been the worst team in the league, ranked at the bottom of the conference on both ends of the floor, and their win over VCU stands out as their only half-decent result. They allow opponents to shoot a absurd 58% from two-point range, and aren’t much better outside the arc. A lot of this can be linked to their pace of play, the conference’s fastest. This creates a lot of turnovers, but NC Wilmington pays for it by getting badly outrebounded, and is unable to create for itself the same high percentage chances it gives up.

Players to watch:

5-11 SO Chad Tomko, 15.8 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 4.5 APG, 2.2 SPG, 46.6 eFG% - Tomko takes a lot of shots when he’s on the floor, and while he doesn’t shoot a great percentage, he makes up for it with excellent assist and steal rates.

6-3 JR Johnny Wolf, 13.7 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 50.6 eFG% - Wolf takes most of his shots from behind the arc, and is one of the rare Seahawks that manages to hit more than a third of these attempts. The most interesting thing about Wolf may be how infrequently he fouls; since fouling out twice in the first three games, he has committed just 21 in the next 27 games.

My statistical all-Colonial team:

Virginia Commonwealth SR G Eric Maynor, 22.4 PPG, 3.6 RPG,6.2 APG, 1.8 SPG, 52.3 eFG%

Delaware SR G Marc Egerson, 15.5 PPG, 10.4 RPG, 1.4 SPG, 48.5 eFG%

Hofstra SO G Charles Jenkins, 19.2 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 4.2 APG, 1.5 SPG, 42.9 eFG%

George Mason SR F Darryl Monroe, 10.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG,1.2 SPG, 57.9 eFG%

Old Dominion JR F Gerald Lee, 15.7 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 57.0 eFG%