bubble

Bubble Watch: Miami, Arizona Back From the Dead

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 21:06:55 -0500

Based on CollegeHoops.net's most recent Bracketology projection, here is how the NCAA Tournament Bubble currently stands. CHN will publish Bubble Watch on Tuesday's following the Bracketology update.

As always, the field below is a prediction of what the committee would do as things stand today, not what they should do. Teams are listed in order of likelihood of making the tournament. (Records listed only against D1 teams.)

This week's notes: Mississippi and Colorado State enter the field this week in place of Seton Hall and Dayton. Home losses to URI and Duquesne have crushed Dayton's hopes, while Seton Hall has been a free-fall in the Big East.

None of the computer rankings love Ole Miss, but the computer rankings don't care that the Rebels are in the SEC (unlike the biased human voters.) Colorado St is an interesting case because of their great RPI. The Rams don't have a single "bad" loss, but the problem is that they have few "good" wins.

Miami and Arizona are both back from the dead after mid-year slides. The problem for Arizona is that with Washington leading the Pac-12 and California in the field, there's really no room for a 3rd Pac-12 team. Miami has a much better chance of making the field due to ACC respect.

Middle Tennessee remains in the field as the Sun Belt champion, but were they to lose the conference title, their at-large hopes took a hit with a loss to Denver. MTSU has the record and computer respect of an at-large team, but realistically a Sun Belt team needs to go above and beyond to gain the committee's respect.

Change	Seed	Team	Conf.	Record	RPI	Sagarin	KenPom	AP
	10	California	P12	18-6	49	26	21
	11	Notre Dame	BE	15-8	56	52	47	26
	11	New Mexico	MWC	19-4	46	17	11	33
	11	Minnesota	BE	17-7	50	45	45
	11	NC State	ACC	17-7	53	55	61
	12	BYU	WCC	20-6	43	31	34	38
	12	Cincinnati	BE	16-7	98	51	50
	12	Xavier	A10	15-8	54	59	57
	12	Ole Miss	SE	14-8	51	95	104
	12	Colorado St	MWC	15-7	26	92	103
Bubble
		Texas	B12	15-9	57	28	23
		Seton Hall	BE	15-8	32	58	69
		Wyoming	MWC	18-5	69	60	54
		Arizona	P12	16-8	63	40	36
		Arkansas	SEC	16-7	60	75	75
		Miami	ACC	14-7	58	54	52	38
		UCF	CUSA	17-6	67	94	97
		Marshall	CUSA	14-9	61	77	76
		Northwestern	B10	14-8	37	67	71

Dropped Out of Bubble Watch: Dayton, Stanford

Projected Conference Champs that would be on the Bubble if they lost title:

Change	Seed	Team	Conf.	Record	RPI	Sagarin	KenPom	AP
	11	Washington	P12	16-7	76	64	64
Bubble
	13	Middle Tennessee	SB	21-4	44	42	42
	13	Oral Roberts	SUM	21-5	47	63	73
	13	Long Beach St	BW	17-6	36	43	46	32
	13	Davidson	SOU	18-5	66	60	62
	14	Iona	MAAC	19-5	58	45	49	35t
	14	Nevada	WAC	19-4	72	102	107

Projected Conference Leaders Out of Bubble Watch: none

We'd love to hear your thoughts in the comments section or on twitter @collegehoopsnet :

Bubble Watch: Dogfight in the A10

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 16:22:20 -0500

Based on CollegeHoops.net's most recent Bracketology projection, here is how the NCAA Tournament Bubble currently stands. CHN will publish Bubble Watch on Tuesday's following the Bracketology update.

This week's notes: Minnesota and NC State join the field of 68 in place of Northwestern and Texas. Northwestern has lost 6 of 8 games and is fading fast. BYU and Stanford still hang onto the bubble despite dropping down the list. Stanford hangs on, mostly because I figure the committee will be biased towards putting 2 Pac-12 teams into the field. BYU hangs on by default, because no other contender stepped up and had a big week. BYU lost a home game to LMU, which is hard to justify, but they now have 3 games in a row against Top 50ish teams, so have a chance to redeem themselves.

Notre Dame enters the picture due to their win over Syracuse, and with the understanding that the committee will overrate power-conference home wins against marquee teams. Belmont, despite some early season buzz, no longer has a place in the bubble discussion. Similarly, Virginia Tech is no longer included in Bubble Watch, but they have more than enough time to win some ACC games and get back on track.

Change	Seed	Team	Conf.	Record	RPI	Sagarin	KenPom	AP
	10	New Mexico	MWC	14-4	59	28	28
	11	Saint Louis	A10	14-4	51	24	44
	11	Southern Miss	CUSA	15-3	15	50	62
	11	Xavier	A10	13-6	43	54	51
	11	Iowa St	B12	14-5	53	45	44
	12	Memphis	CUSA	13-6	28	26	27
	12	Minnesota	B10	15-5	45	44	45
	12	NC State	ACC	15-5	55	53	54
	13	BYU	WCC	15-5	56	29	31
	13	Stanford	P12	15-5	80	44	49
Bubble
		UCF	CUSA	14-4	57	87	89
		Northwestern	B10	12-7	37	62	64
		Texas	B12	12-7	70	34	24
		Arizona	P12	13-7	72	59	63
		Ole Miss	SEC	13-6	34	97	110
		Oregon	P12	15-5	58	90	102
		Notre Dame	BE	12-8	98	85	82
		Arkansas	SEC	14-5	61	72	81
		Wyoming	MWC	14-3	88	55	43

Dropped Out of Bubble Watch: Virginia Tech

Projected Conference Champs that would be on the Bubble if they lost title:

Change	Seed	Team	Conf.	Record	RPI	Sagarin	KenPom	AP
	12	Marshall	CUSA	12-6	46	63	75
	12	Middle Tennessee	SB	18-2	52	30	30	34
Bubble
	13	Oral Roberts	SUM	18-4	44	56	46
	13	Long Beach St	BW	12-6	40	37	38	37
	13	Davidson	SOU	13-4	48	60	63
	14	Iona	MAAC	15-5	50	58	61	36
	14	Nevada	WAC	14-3	73	95	99

Projected Conference Leaders Out of Bubble Watch: Belmont

We'd love to hear your thoughts in the comments section or on twitter @collegehoopsnet :

Bubble Watch: BYU Needs a Big Week

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 12:05:49 -0500

Based on CollegeHoops.net's most recent Bracketology projection, here is how the NCAA Tournament Bubble currently stands. CHN will publish Bubble Watch on Tuesday's following the Bracketology update.

Change	Seed	Team	Conf.	Record	RPI	Sagarin	KenPom	AP
	10	New Mexico	MWC	14-4	59	28	28
	11	Saint Louis	A10	14-4	51	24	44
	11	Southern Miss	CUSA	15-3	15	50	62
	11	Xavier	A10	13-6	43	54	51
	11	Iowa St	B12	14-5	53	45	44
	12	Memphis	CUSA	13-6	28	26	27
	12	Minnesota	B10	15-5	45	44	45
	12	NC State	ACC	15-5	55	53	54
	13	BYU	WCC	15-5	56	29	31
	13	Stanford	P12	15-5	80	44	49
Bubble
		UCF	CUSA	14-4	57	87	89
		Northwestern	B10	12-7	37	62	64
		Texas	B12	12-7	70	34	24
		Arizona	P12	13-7	72	59	63
		Ole Miss	SEC	13-6	34	97	110
		Oregon	P12	15-5	58	90	102
		Notre Dame	BE	12-8	98	85	82
		Arkansas	SEC	14-5	61	72	81
		Wyoming	MWC	14-3	88	55	43

Dropped Out of Bubble Watch: Virginia Tech

Projected Conference Champs that would be on the Bubble if they lost title:

Change	Seed	Team	Conf.	Record	RPI	Sagarin	KenPom	AP
	12	Marshall	CUSA	12-6	46	63	75
	12	Middle Tennessee	SB	18-2	52	30	30	34
Bubble
	13	Oral Roberts	SUM	18-4	44	56	46
	13	Long Beach St	BW	12-6	40	37	38	37
	13	Davidson	SOU	13-4	48	60	63
	14	Iona	MAAC	15-5	50	58	61	36
	14	Nevada	WAC	14-3	73	95	99

Projected Conference Leaders Out of Bubble Watch: Belmont

We'd love to hear your thoughts in the comments section or on twitter @collegehoopsnet :

Bubble Watch: Colorado St, Oregon Making Noise

Shawn Siegel — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 12:21:40 -0500

Based on CollegeHoops.net's most recent Bracketology projection, here is how the NCAA Tournament Bubble currently stands. CHN will publish Bubble Watch on Tuesday's following the Bracketology update.

As always, the field below is a prediction of what the committee would do as things stand today, not what they should do. Teams are listed in order of likelihood of making the tournament.

This week's notes: Florida St and Memphis return to the field of 68 again after stints earlier in the year. FSU was strongly aided by their win over UNC, while Memphis makes it due to their strong standing in the computer rankings. Arizona and Virginia Tech dropped out this week. Tech dropped over 40 spots in the RPI in just one week due to their 3rd straight loss. Minnesota and Colorado St, who barely registered on the bubble watch last week now have to be considered serious players. Pittsburgh has fallen completely out of the picture. Southern Miss relinquished the CUSA lead to Marshall, but still hangs on to an at-large bid.

Change	Seed	Team	Conf.	Record	RPI	KenPom	Sagarin	AP
	10	Cincinnati	BE	14-4	107	46	58	32
	11	Texas	B12	12-5	62	26	44
	11	Xavier	A10	12-5	41	45	57
	11	Saint Louis	A10	14-4	59	17	34
	12	Southern Miss	CUSA	16-3	15	68	38
	12	Northwestern	B10	12-5	25	47	41	38
	12	BYU	WCc	16-4	44	20	27
	12	Florida St	ACC	12-6	49	29	37	38
	13	Memphis	CUSA	12-5	28	27	26
	13	Iowa St	B12	12-5	51	44	49
Bubble
		Minnesota	B10	14-5	36	48	51
		NC State	ACC	13-5	58	49	56
		Arkansas	SEC	13-5	80	83	77
		Arizona	P12	12-6	63	55	63
		Colorado St	MWC	13-4	22	92	68
		Oregon	P12	13-5	50	94	78
		Northern Iowa	MVC	13-6	30	61	55
		St. Joseph's	A10	12-6	53	60	60
		Virginia Tech	ACC	11-6	82	51	67

Dropped Out of Bubble Watch: Pittsburgh

Projected Conference Champs that would be on the Bubble if they lost title:

Change	Seed	Team	Conf.	Record	RPI	KenPom	Sagarin	AP
	11	Marshall	CUSA	13-4	33	64	53
	12	Iona	MAAC	14-4	34	54	48	37
	13	Middle Tennessee	SB	17-2	66	41	35
Bubble
	13	Oral Roberts	SUM	16-4	45	58	46
	13	Long Beach St	BW	12-6	56	57	52
	14	Belmont	ASUN	13-6	84	34	50
	14	Nevada	WAC	15-3	70	97	81
	14	Davidson	SoCo	12-4	43	72	59

Projected Conference Leaders Out of Bubble Watch: none

We'd love to hear your thoughts in the comments section or on twitter @collegehoopsnet :

Bubble Watch: Memphis, Arkansas, UNI On the Edge

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 14:55:41 -0500

Based on CollegeHoops.net's most recent Bracketology projection, here is how the NCAA Tournament Bubble currently stands. CHN will publish Bubble Watch on Tuesday's following the Bracketology update.

As always, the field below is a prediction of what the committee would do as things stand today, not what they should do. Teams are listed in order of likelihood of making the tournament.

This week's notes: BYU & Iowa St jump into the field, replacing Florida St, Pittsburgh, and Minnesota. Dayton also enters the field as the new A10 leader, but as you see below, they'd most likely make the tourney as an at-large bid currently. Memphis remains just on the fringe, and Arkansas enters the bubble picture for the first time. Ohio, though still in the tourney as the projected MAC champs, would no longer be considered for an at-large bid in these projections.

Change	Seed	Team	Conf.	Record	RPI	KenPom	Sagarin	AP
	11	Texas	B12	11-4	72	26	44
	11	Arizona	P12	11-5	57	42	61
	12	Marshall	CUSA	10-4	46	54	51
	12	Cincinnati	BE	13-4	109	43	60
	12	Virginia Tech	ACC	11-4	40	38	41
	12	Xavier	A10	10-5	51	61	69
	12	BYU	WCC	12-4	45	21	28
	13	Northwestern	B10	11-4	31	67	50
	13	Iowa St	B12	12-3	44	53	54	38
Bubble
		Memphis	CUSA	10-5	36	31	30
		Arkansas	SEC	12-3	82	79	76	34
		Northern Iowa	MVC	11-4	23	47	46
		St. Joseph's	A10	11-5	47	59	57
		Florida St	ACC	9-6	85	46	73
		Pittsburgh	BE	11-5	84	62	77
		NC State	ACC	12-4	48	54	55
		Colorado St	B12	10-4	28	96	67
		Minnesota	B10	12-5	31	66	66

Dropped Out of Bubble Watch: Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Washington

Projected Conference Champs that would be on the Bubble if they lost title:

Change	Seed	Team	Conf.	Record	RPI	KenPom	Sagarin	AP
	10	Southern Miss	CUSA	13-2	11	72	34
	11	Dayton	A10	12-4	17	48	42	37
	11	Iona	MAAC	13-3	32	41	37
	13	Middle Tennessee	SB	14-2	86	58	43
Bubble
	13	Ohio	MAC	11-3	68	76	58
	13	Long Beach St	BW	8-6	22	40	38
		Belmont	ASUN	10-6	98	36	59
		Oral Roberts	SUM	14-4	53	52	48
		Nevada	WAC	11-3	81	86	79
		Davidson	SoCo	9-4	41	73	62

Projected Conference Leaders Out of Bubble Watch: Cleveland St

We'd love to hear your thoughts in the comments section or on twitter @collegehoopsnet :

Bubble Watch: Mid-Majors Clinging to At-Large Bids

Shawn Siegel — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 13:33:00 -0500

Based on CollegeHoops.net's most recent Bracketology projection, here is how the NCAA Tournament Bubble currently stands. CHN will publish Bubble Watch on Tuesday's following the Bracketology update.

As always, the field below is a prediction of what the committee would do as things stand today, not what they should do. Teams are listed in order of likelihood of making the tournament.

Change	Seed	Team	Conf.	Record	RPI	KenPom	Sagarin	AP
	10	Vanderbilt	SEC	10-4	39	48	58	29
	11	Temple	A10	9-3	27	44	52
	11	Pittsburgh	BE	11-4	79	53	70	31
	11	Virginia Tech	ACC	11-3	38	35	33
	12	Arizona	P12	10-4	53	41	56
	12	Minnesota	B10	12-3	20	46	47
	13	Cincinnati	BE	11-3	117	47	63	34
	13	Northwestern		11-3	29	68	49
	13	Florida St	ACC	8-5	78	40	62
	13	Marshall	CUSA	9-4	68	60	54
Bubble
		Memphis	CUSA	8-5	33	31	26
		BYU	WCC	12-4	69	20	32
		Oklahoma	B12	10-3	42	69	55
		St. Joseph's	A10	10-4	41	54	51
		Dayton	A10	10-4	35	70	60
		Northern Iowa	MVC	10-4	30	65	64
		Ole Miss	SEC	10-4	49	112	86
		Washington	P12	8-5	77	51	68
		Texas A&M	B12	9-4	226	85	134	35
		NC State	ACC	8-4	73	62	59

Dropped Out of Bubble Watch: Oregon St

Projected Conference Champs that would be on the Bubble if they lost title:

Change	Seed	Team	Conf.	Record	RPI	KenPom	Sagarin	AP
	11	Southern Miss	CUSA	13-2	18	72	37
	12	Ohio	MAC	12-2	62	66	43	27
	12	Iona	MAAC	11-3	32	42	45
	13	Middle Tennessee	SB	13-2	80	57	41
Bubble
		Belmont	ASUN	10-5	64	28	34
		Cleveland St	HOR	12-3	58	101	74	38
		Long Beach St	BW	8-6	16	37	38

Projected Conference Leaders Out of Bubble Watch: Charleston

We'd love to hear your thoughts in the comments section or on twitter @collegehoopsnet :