bubble

BubbleBoard: Saturday Night Update

Shawn Siegel — Sat, 14 Mar 2009 21:43:22 -0400

The BubbleBoard is a new feature on CHN that ranks at-large contenders using a variety of standard resume components. The core of the ranking is the RPI, and like the RPI, the better you are, the lower your total score is. Bonus points are awarded for Top 50 success (particularly) & Road/Neutral wins. Further bonuses are awarded for playing challenging schedules, and to a lesser extent, challenging schedules in non-conference play.

The key reason the BubbleBoard exists is to expose teams that have performed extremely poorly in Top 50 games and games away from home. Ultimately, you want tourney teams capable of competing with the best away from home.

Interesting changes since previous update on 3/11

- Huge chances in the past few days of Championship Week action

- The big positive movers are USC (+26), Maryland (+20), SDSU (+19), Auburn (+10), Oklahoma St (+9). SDSU & OSU are virtual locks now.

- The big losers are South Carolina (-12), Miami (-9), UNLV (-9), Dayton (-8), Florida (-7), Northwestern (-7)

** Note the blue teams are the one's in the latest bracketology. However, the BubbleBoard was updated after new RPI calculations. In this update, South Carolina took a tumble, and Penn State got hurt as well. South Carolina in particular is in bad shape at this point considering the rise of Auburn and Mississippi St.

Faker teams: Florida, Miami, Providence, South Carolina, UAB, Virginia Tech (Maryland, Oklahoma St, SDSU, USC removed. VT added)

Dangerous teams: BYU, Ohio St, Penn St (BC, Dayton, Northwestern removed. Ohio st added)

- Mississippi State added to list, while Temple is removed after winning the A-10.

Team	RPI	SOS	NCSOS	Comp. =	T50 W	T50 L	R/N W	R/N L	Bonus =	Total =	Was
Pittsburgh	1	8	15	2	8	3	9	4	48	-46	-49
BYU	28	61	69	27	4	4	11	5	24	4	-3
Oklahoma St	20	4	22	15	4	10	8	9	7	9	18
Ohio St	36	37	138	34	6	8	6	6	23	11	18
Dayton	27	84	120	31	3	2	8	7	17	14	6
Michigan	42	9	53	32	6	10	6	10	16	16	15
Texas A&M	37	36	135	34	4	5	7	7	16	18	12
San Diego St	31	38	92	29	2	5	9	6	7	21	40
Minnesota	40	35	188	38	5	8	6	7	16	23	22
Utah St*	25	141	179	36	1	2	12	4	11	25	29
Creighton	41	110	144	44	2	2	11	5	15	28	26
Wisconsin	44	17	43	34	4	10	6	9	5	29	22
USC	45	23	60	36	4	8	5	10	6	29	55
Maryland	51	24	128	43	4	7	6	8	11	32	52
Saint Mary's	47	156	87	49	2	3	13	5	16	34	33
Arizona	63	32	74	50	6	10	5	10	15	35	30
Illinois St	48	100	171	49	2	2	11	7	14	35	33
Boston College	61	70	233	58	4	5	7	7	16	42	38
UNLV	65	87	157	59	4	5	6	7	15	44	35
Auburn	58	62	201	54	2	3	6	7	7	47	57
UAB	46	71	56	40	0	5	9	10	-8	48	47
Penn State	68	113	313	70	6	9	7	8	20	49	44
Rhode Island	67	133	127	63	3	5	10	8	13	51	49
Northwestern	75	52	210	65	6	10	4	9	15	51	44
New Mexico	66	85	177	60	3	5	6	9	8	53	47
Kentucky	77	58	182	66	3	4	8	7	13	53	52
Virginia Tech	62	21	156	51	2	9	9	9	-3	54	52
Davidson	69	166	19	63	1	4	13	4	9	54	54
Florida	52	91	248	54	1	5	7	9	-3	57	50
Miami	64	30	224	56	2	7	6	8	-1	57	48
Misssippi St	74	60	168	64	1	3	8	7	3	61	NA
Providence	71	51	150	60	2	8	6	9	-4	64	63
South Carolina	59	96	271	60	0	4	5	7	-8	68	56

*Teams leading their leagues

NC-SOS = Non-conference strength of schedule

Comp. = Modified RPI taking into account SOS/NCSOS a bit more

R/N = Road/neutral

BubbleBoard: Latest RPI Changes

Shawn Siegel — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 19:47:36 -0400

RPI #'s updated as of 3/11/09, 12:10 pm.

Interesting changes since previous update on 3/08

- Siena is removed since they won their league. Butler was removed because they're simply a lock. Cincy, Georgetown, and George Mason were removed since they have no shot.

- Not too many games played in the last 2 days. St Mary's went one and one in the WCC tourney but the Gonzaga game helps their SOS. Similarly, Illinois St losing to Northern Iowa wasn't a major blow.

- Most of the changes are merely from team's competitors losing/winning, which indirectly helps their RPI. For example, Creighton lost a Top 50 win since George Mason dropped to 54th.

- The next update on the evening of the 12th should have much more movement.

Faker teams: Florida, Miami, Oklahoma St, Providence, San Diego St, South Carolina, Temple, UAB, USC, Virginia Tech (VT added over Maryland)

Dangerous teams: Boston College, BYU, Dayton, Northwestern, Penn St, UNLV

Blue = In CHN's Latest Bracketology

Team	RPI	SOS	NCSOS	Comp. =	T50 W	T50 L	R/N W	R/N L	Bonus =	Total =	Was
Pittsburgh	1	8	17	2	8	2	9	3	51	-49	-55
BYU	21	59	66	22	4	3	10	4	25	-3	-3
Dayton	23	92	121	29	4	2	7	6	23	6	6
Texas A&M	29	39	142	29	4	5	7	6	17	12	13
Michigan	42	10	59	33	6	9	5	9	17	15	15
Ohio St	36	33	134	33	5	8	5	6	16	18	19
Oklahoma St	25	6	25	19	3	9	6	8	1	18	19
Minnesota	41	43	181	40	5	7	5	6	17	22	22
Wisconsin	38	15	39	29	4	9	6	8	7	22	17
Creighton	39	110	130	42	2	2	11	5	15	26	22
Utah St*	28	135	184	38	1	2	10	4	9	29	28
Arizona	54	32	67	43	5	8	5	9	13	30	28
Temple	40	36	21	32	1	5	10	9	0	32	25
Saint Mary's	46	148	88	48	2	3	13	5	16	33	37
Illinois St	47	103	174	48	2	1	11	7	16	33	32
UNLV	56	88	154	53	4	4	6	6	18	35	34
Boston College	58	68	230	55	4	4	6	6	18	38	34
San Diego St	43	61	93	39	1	5	7	6	-1	40	41
Northwestern	70	52	208	62	6	9	4	7	18	44	42
Penn State	64	101	314	66	6	8	6	7	22	44	41
New Mexico	59	85	175	55	3	5	6	8	9	47	44
UAB	44	69	54	39	0	5	8	9	-8	47	46
Miami	52	26	220	47	2	7	6	7	0	48	47
Rhode Island	65	138	132	62	3	5	10	7	13	49	54
Florida	48	89	246	51	2	6	6	8	1	50	51
Kentucky	78	63	180	67	4	6	7	6	15	52	52
Maryland	67	29	136	55	3	7	4	8	3	52	52
Virginia Tech	63	22	152	52	2	8	8	7	0	52	48
Davidson	69	166	19	63	1	4	13	4	9	54	53
USC	61	28	60	47	2	8	3	10	-8	55	53
South Carolina	49	95	273	53	1	5	5	6	-3	56	55
Auburn	66	67	196	60	2	5	5	7	2	57	56
Providence	72	49	163	61	2	7	5	8	-2	63	64

*Teams leading their leagues

NC-SOS = Non-conference strength of schedule

Comp. = Modified RPI taking into account SOS/NCSOS a bit more

R/N = Road/neutral

Dave's Rant: The NCAA Tournament Bubble

Dave Barend — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 16:06:12 -0400

So I flick on ESPN to find some info about teams "on the bubble" for making the NCAA Tourney. What do I learn? That the Detroit Lions should take a safety in Round 3.

If you don't know what "on the bubble" means then you are the exact type of person I want to compete against in my NCAA pool.

"On the bubble" can be best explained as follows: Imagine you are standing in line at a trendy nightclub that only lets the most attractive people enter. The bouncer checks you out and doesn't tell you to get lost, but doesn't immediately let you and your other marginally good-looking friends in. You are on the proverbial bubble. But when a limo filled with professional athletes and super-models pulls up - your bubble has burst.

Personally, I think that "on the bubble" is too wimpy and wussy to describe the dire predicament that these teams face. I, therefore, advocate a change from "on the bubble" to something that better conveys the very slight chance of survival and the very strong possibility of demise. Such as:

*In the percolating volcano.

*On the engineless airplane.

*Driving the Pinto.

*Engaged to be married.

*Fighting Mike Tyson.

*In Detroit.

*Eating my wife's lasagna.

I must admit that "On the bubble" came in handy back when I was dating. (Oh the good old days.) About a month into each relationship I would be asked the same stupid question: "Where do I stand with you?" My response: "On the bubble." Every time I got the same reply: "What does that mean?" But one woman actually retorted: "Well, I'll just have to win my conference tournament." A few months later I asked her a stupid question: "Will you marry me?"

I was actually "on the bubble" once. No, not for the NCAA Tournament. I didn't play Div I Basketball. I played JV CYO basketball. Well, I almost didn't. Yes, I was on the bubble for making my JV CYO team.

It was the end of the last day of tryouts and coach sat us all down. He said he can only keep 10 and since there were 11, one had to go. He then announced that it had come down to me and Stevie - a kid who had a severe case of glaucoma.

I truly thought I had a few advantages over Stevie. Like, for one, my ability to see. There was also the fact that I knew the coach quite well. Not really by choice. He was my dad.

Vision and nepotism apparently weren't going to be enough. Dad tells Stevie and me we're playing one-on-one. Winner makes the team. As a hoop player I had one talent - throwing picks. Turns out, that is not an effective move in one-on one. Lucky for me Stevie was legally blind. I perpetually duped him into throwing the ball to me by holding my arms out like a hoop.

After 5 minutes of action, the score was tied: 0-0. Trying to discern who was better had to be like trying to differentiate between the talents of Milli Vanilli and the Jonas Brothers.

My dad then blew his whistle signifying our immediate return to the bench. Stevie got there first and I noticed there was no room for me. My face dropped. I thought, "Oh my God. Has my basketball career just ended due to an impromptu game of musical chairs?"
My dad then got up to grab the bouncing ball. I deftly dove into his spot.

Dad threw his clip board to the floor and said "Ah sh!t. God damn it all." Yeah, my dad would seem to forget that the C in CYO stood for Catholic. And that Father Malone was standing next to him.

There was a pause as my Dad looked at Stevie. Then me. Then Stevie. Then me. "Screw it. I'll keep you both." Stevie and I then hugged with joy. Well, once Stevie could find me.

Other kids remember words of wisdom from their dads. I will always have, "Screw it. I'll keep you both." Words that took me right off the bubble - and right on to the bench.

But there are a number of teams currently "on the bubble" who aren't going be as fortunate as I. Below I give you my breakdown of some of those teams and who is going to be in & out of the Tourney.

Minnesota
If the Gophers get in the Tourney the announcers will continually mention that Coach Tubby Smith is one of 17 kids in his family. That will lead to my wife saying, "If his parents could have 17 children, we can easily handle a third."
Decision: Definitely Out!

Penn State
There is a chance that Joe Paterno may show up for some of the games if they make the Tourney. That means there is a chance that on national television he may, once again, poop himself.
Decision: In

Providence
I like PC. Even like their nickname. It's just spelled wrong. They need to change it from Friars to Fryers. Then they can change their mascot from a docile monk to a frightened turkey.
Decision: In

Boston College
If the Eagles get in I will be quite happy. Then when they lose in the first round I will be quite sad.
Decision: Doesn't matter.

Kentucky
Come on now, say it with me. Just two words: Ashley Judd.
Decision: In

Notre Dame
Come on now, say it with me. Just two words: Digger Phelps.
Decision: Out

Now, all this contemplation about being "on the bubble" has led me to a somewhat unique thought: How about a breakdown of bubbles? I, therefore, give you in match-up format:

Barend's Bubble Bubble Breakdown:

Boy In The Bubble vs. Strippers Named Bubbles
Let's see, we have John Travolta in a vat of plastic or dancing naked women. Hmmm.
Decision: Strippers are in. (Strippers are always in.)

Bubble Wrap vs. Mr. Bubble
Everyone loves bubble wrap. Not me. Why? Each Christmas I spend a wad of dough on gifts for my girls. And what do they play with? The damn bubble wrap.
Decision: Bubble wrap is out.

"Tiny Bubbles" vs. "B Is For Bubble"
You might think you've never heard "B is for Bubbles", but you have - on Sesame Street. "B is for bubbles. Bubbles, bubbles, bubbles . . ." Remember it now? Yeah you do. Good luck getting it out of your head.
Decision: Don Ho's classic "Tiny Bubbles" is in.

William Shakespeare vs. Rodney Dangerfield
There's the famous Macbeth line of "Double double toil and trouble. Fire burn and cauldron bubble." And then you have Rodney in "Back To School" with a hut tub full of babes saying, "What's a bath without bubbles? Come here Bubbles."
Decision: Shakespeare just can't compete with the Classics. Rodney's in.

There you have it - the first ever Bubble Bubble Breakdown, just for you. As for me, well, my wife's serving lasagna tonight. Guess I'm back on the bubble.

Take it easy,
Dave

BubbleBoard: Michigan Rises, Minnesota Sinks

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 08 Mar 2009 20:04:47 -0400

RPI #'s updated as of 3/08/09, 1:10 pm.

Interesting changes since previous update on 3/06

- Note that the latest update does not include any Sunday games beginning 2pm or later.

- I made a slight tweek in the formula today. Teams with a lot of Top 50 wins, but with sub-.500 records in those games were being overrated a bit too much.

- Texas A&M moves closer to lock status, while Dayton & Creighton actually improve due to former opponents moving into the Top 50.

- BYU is a virtual lock at this point along with Butler.

- Big losers include Oklahoma St (loss to OU not a huge deal, but earlier wins losing value), Minnesota (loss to UM), Cincy (devastating home loss to SHU), and Rhode Island.

Faker teams: Florida, George Mason, Maryland, Miami, Oklahoma St, Providence, San Diego St, South Carolina, Siena, Temple, UAB, USC

Dangerous teams: Boston College, Butler, BYU, Dayton, Northwestern, Penn St

- Auburn, Illinois St, and Northwestern added to BubbleBoard for the first time.

Team	RPI	SOS	NCSOS	Comp. =	T50 W	T50 L	R/N W	R/N L	Bonus =	Total =	Was
Pittsburgh	1	9	19	2	9	2	9	3	57	-55	-50
BYU	22	55	63	23	4	3	10	4	25	-3	-7
Butler*	18	90	15	21	2	1	11	3	19	2	2
Dayton	24	88	120	29	4	2	7	6	23	6	11
Texas A&M	29	44	156	30	4	5	7	6	17	13	18
Michigan	42	10	57	33	6	9	5	9	17	15	16
Wisconsin	32	6	36	24	4	9	6	8	7	17	9
Ohio St	38	32	129	34	5	8	5	6	16	19	12
Oklahoma St	26	8	31	20	3	9	6	8	1	19	4
Creighton	39	105	133	41	3	3	11	5	20	22	28
Minnesota	41	42	188	40	5	7	5	6	17	22	9
Temple	30	35	20	25	1	5	10	9	0	25	26
Georgetown	47	3	8	33	4	8	5	8	8	25	16
Siena*	24	67	2	22	0	4	9	7	-4	26	28
Utah St*	27	133	172	37	1	2	10	4	9	28	28
Arizona	52	29	66	41	5	8	5	9	13	28	25
Illinois St	45	110	186	48	2	1	11	6	16	32	NA
UNLV	55	87	150	52	4	4	6	6	18	34	17
Boston College	54	64	221	52	4	4	6	6	18	34	28
Saint Mary's	50	179	94	54	2	2	12	4	17	37	33
San Diego St	44	61	95	40	1	5	7	6	-1	41	32
Penn State	61	95	309	63	6	8	6	7	22	41	31
Northwestern	70	60	207	62	6	8	4	7	20	42	NA
New Mexico	57	84	179	54	3	4	6	8	10	44	41
UAB	43	65	47	37	0	5	8	9	-8	46	44
George Mason	46	99	38	42	0	2	7	9	-4	46	52
Miami	51	23	225	47	2	7	6	7	0	47	43
Virginia Tech	59	25	162	50	2	7	8	7	2	48	47
Cincinnati	72	30	76	56	4	9	5	8	6	50	29
Florida	49	92	253	52	2	6	6	8	1	51	51
Maryland	65	26	138	53	3	8	4	8	1	52	39
Kentucky	79	63	181	68	4	6	7	6	15	52	52
USC	58	28	65	46	2	8	3	10	-8	53	49
Davidson*	68	173	16	63	1	4	13	3	9	53	51
Rhode Island	63	142	130	61	2	5	10	7	7	54	39
South Carolina	48	91	273	52	1	5	5	6	-3	55	57
Auburn	64	69	203	59	2	5	5	7	2	56	NA
Providence	71	48	155	60	2	8	5	8	-4	64	50

*Teams leading their leagues

NC-SOS = Non-conference strength of schedule

Comp. = Modified RPI taking into account SOS/NCSOS a bit more

R/N = Road/neutral