Marshall

Cal May Not Be As Safe as We Think: Friday's Quick Hitters

Raphielle Johnson — Sat, 10 Mar 2012 00:38:44 -0800

Cincinnati and Louisville advance to the Big East final, marking the first time that no original members will be in the game.

1. California falls to Colorado in the Pac-12 semis, which could mean two bids for the league.
Based on conventional wisdom, Mike Montgomery's Cal Golden Bears had the best resume of any team in the Pac-12. But in a league that went 1-31 against non-conference Top 50 opponents this season, what's that really saying? Thanks to the Golden Bears' 70-59 loss to Colorado in the second Pac-12 semifinal we've got extra time to figure that out. Carlon Brown and Andre Roberson scored 17 points apiece and Austin Dufault added 15 for the Buffaloes, who are one win away from being picked to finish 10th in the conference to grabbing the Pac-12's automatic bid.

As for Cal, who shot a decent 42.9% from the field but turned the ball over 17 times and saw Colorado shoot 50% from the field? They may be in a little more trouble than many thought. Entering Friday with an RPI of 34 and a strength of schedule of 82 (non-conference SOS: 71), Cal looked to be in good shape in that regard. But this is where further inspection is needed. 16 of their 23 wins have come against teams sitting 101 or worse in the RPI, and their two Top 50 wins both came at the expense of Oregon, who was 49th at the start of the day. Their best non-conference wins: Weber State and Denver. Cal likely will find their way into the Field of 68 come Selection Sunday, but the optimism may need to be a bit more cautious at this point in time.

2. Baylor and Missouri advance to the Big 12 title game in Kansas City.
Entering the Big 12 tournament most of the talk centered around the possibility of Kansas and Missouri meeting for a third time this season, and with a one-seed possibly being on the line it was expected that the Jayhawks and Tigers would meet. But two things were learned on Friday night: Baylor, who felt a little disrespected by the talk (they did go 0-4 against those two this season), stepped up after Kansas made their run and beat the Jayhawks 81-72. Secondly, Missouri didn't seem to be in the mood for "Border War" talk, as they showed a focus that championship-caliber teams tend to display at this point in the year.

Marcus Denmon may have gone 0-for-10 from the field but Missouri beat Texas 81-67 anyway, as Kim English and Phil Pressey scored 23 points apiece and Ricardo Ratliffe added 18 and 14 boards. The Bears now get another shot at the Tigers, and with Brady Heslip coming off of a big performance in which he knocked down some key three-pointers and A.J. Walton playing well this week it's fair to say that Baylor has improved. Missouri can earn a one-seed with a victory, but Baylor could jump a seed line as well (likely tapping out at a two).

3. Miami loses Durand Scott before the game, and their loss to Florida State may have cost them an at-large bid too.
Just before the tip-off of the final quarterfinal of the night in the ACC, Miami announced that starting guard Durand Scott was ineligible to play due to the possible receipt of impermissible benefits. That certainly didn't help Jim Larranaga and his Hurricanes, who fell 82-71 to Florida State. With so many other bubble teams faltering maybe the loss doesn't kill Miami's NCAA hopes, but with the chance to distinguish themselves from the "competition" the Canes were unable to do so.

Not only did the Seminoles take care of the basketball, finishing with 11 turnovers (they average more than 16 per game), but they outscored Miami 25-9 from the foul line. Michael Snaer and Ian Miller led five FSU players in double figures with 20 and 18 points respectively, and the Seminoles put together their most efficient showing on the offensive end since their 84-70 win over Maryland on January 17th. Miami has to hope for a swift (and positive) decision regarding Scott, because the selection committee does take a team's current parts into consideration. This capped a day in Atlanta that also saw John Henson injure his left wrist and NC State may have locked up an at-large bid with their win over Virginia.

Quick Hitters

1. It was a busy day in the Big Ten and not just because of a full day of action in Indianapolis. Both Illinois and Nebraska made moves at the top of their programs, deciding that it was time to move forward without the services of Bruce Weber and Doc Sadler respectively. While neither move is a surprise, what is interesting about Tom Osborne's decision to let Sadler go is that he'd given him an extension after last season.

2. With the quarterfinal between Xavier and Dayton being thought of as almost an NCAA tournament elimination game, the Musketeers' 70-69 victory could loom large on Selection Sunday. Chris Mack's team may be safe at this point but a win over Saint Louis on Saturday wouldn't hurt their chances either.

3. Another game of that magnitude was the first game of the night session at the SEC tournament, and Ole Miss picked up a much-needed 77-72 overtime win over Tennessee. Next up for Andy Kennedy's Rebels is a matchup with Vanderbilt, and a win over the Commodores would likely lock up a bid for a team few had near the bubble just a couple weeks ago.

4. One more automatic bid to the NIT may have been accounted for as well, as WAC regular season champion Nevada fell 78-73 to Louisiana Tech in the WAC semis. David Carter's Wolf Pack find themselves in a situation similar to that of Drexel: gaudy record but the strength of schedule numbers (168 overall, 165 non-conference) could put them in a tough spot come Selection Sunday.

5. Once again it will be Long Beach State and UCSB playing for the Big West crown, and while quite a few believe that the 49ers would get in with a loss one can never be too sure. The Gauchos, who held off Cal Poly, have won the last two conference tournament titles.

6. Three players who hail from the state of Ohio scored 30 points or more in Big Ten quarterfinal games, all leading their teams to wins. Rob Wilson scored 30 points in Wisconsin's 79-71 win over Indiana, Trey Burke scored 30 in Michigan's 73-69 overtime win over Minnesota and Jared Sullinger scored 30 in Ohio State's 88-71 win over Purdue.

7. One player to watch out of the Mountain West, which should get four teams into the Big Dance, next week is New Mexico wing Demetrius Walker. In wins over Air Force and UNLV, Walker's averaging 15.5 points per game, more than double his season average. The Lobos take on top-seed San Diego State in Saturday's title game.

8. Marshall advanced to the Conference USA title game with a 73-62 win over Southern Miss, and a win by the Thundering Herd could make C-USA a three-bid team. Tom Herrion's team will have their work cut out for them however as they take on Memphis, who took UCF's resume and ripped it to shreds with an 83-52 demolition of the Knights.

9. Top-seed Akron took care of business in their MAC semifinal, beating Kent State 78-74 with Nikola Cvetinovic leading four Zips in double figures with 15 points. They'll take on three-seed Ohio, who beat two-seed Buffalo 77-74 in the other semifinal. D.J. Cooper led five Bobcats in double figures with 18 points to go along with nine assists.

10. The top two seeds in the SWAC tournament will meet on Saturday as both regular season champ Mississippi Valley State beat UAPB 71-64, and Texas Southern beat Alcorn State 60-55. Cor-J Cox led the Delta Devils with 19 points and 11 rebounds as they avenged their lone conference defeat.

Conference Finals Predictions: Big 12, Big East, Pac-12 & More

Greg Mengelt — Fri, 09 Mar 2012 23:52:34 -0800

Our g ame prediction guru Greg Mengelt has been on fire this year. Here are is predictions for Saturday's conference championship game. Read more about Championship Week at CollegeHoops.net.

AMERICA EAST FINAL: AT STONY BROOK

(2) Vermont (22-11, 13-3) at (1) Stony Brook (22-8, 14-2)

Tipoff: 11:02 a.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 2 – Stony Brook 65-59; Feb. 12 – Vermont 68-49. RPI: Stony Brook 141, Vermont 156. Analysis: Vermont has been great for the last month-and-a-half and will break the hearts of the Seawolves home faithful. Line: Stony Brook -3½. Pick: Vermont 63, Stony Brook 58.

BIG 12 FINAL: AT KANSAS CITY

(2) Missouri (28-4, 14-4) vs. (4) Baylor (27-6, 12-6)

Tipoff: 6 p.m. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 21 – Missouri 89-88*; Feb. 11 – Missouri 72-57. RPI: Baylor 8, Missouri 17. Analysis: I picked Baylor the first two times. Sticking with the Bears. Pick: Baylor 79, Missouri 74.

BIG EAST FINAL: AT NEW YORK CITY

(4) Cincinnati (24-9, 12-6) vs. (7) Louisville (25-9, 10-8)

Tipoff: 9 p.m. TV: ESPN. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 23 – Cincinnati 60-56. RPI: Louisville 18, Cincinnati 40. Analysis: Louisville’s stifling defense has carried the Cardinals this far. A Big East title is next. Pick: Louisville 59, Cincinnati 53.

BIG WEST FINAL: AT ANAHEIM

(1) Long Beach State (24-8, 15-1) vs. (2) UC-Santa Barbara (20-9, 12-4)

Tipoff: 10 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 21 – Long Beach 71-48*; Feb. 22 – Long Beach 70-58. RPI: Long Beach 38, UCSB 126. Analysis: Do you think the 49ers have been looking forward to this game for a full year? They want blood – and they’ll get blood. Pick: Long Beach State 75, UC-Santa Barbara 54.

CONFERENCE USA FINAL: AT MEMPHIS

(1) Memphis (25-8, 13-3) vs. (6) Marshall (21-12, 9-7)

Tipoff: 11:35 a.m. TV: CBS. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 28 – Memphis 83-76; Feb. 25 – Memphis 87-67*. RPI: Memphis 16, Marshall 39. Analysis: The Memphis we’ve seen since the beginning of February is the Memphis we expected to see all season. Line: Memphis -9½. Pick: Memphis 90, Marshall 69.

MAC FINAL: AT CLEVELAND

(1) Akron (22-10, 13-3) vs. (3) Ohio (25-7, 11-5)

Tipoff: 8 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 14 – Akron 68-63; Feb. 26 – Ohio 85-61. RPI: Akron 50, Ohio 68. Analysis: Ohio had a disappointing regular season. It will be a memory because the Bobcats are going dancing. Pick: Ohio 75, Akron 68.

MEAC FINAL: AT WINSTON-SALEM, N.C.

(2) Norfolk State (24-9, 13-3) vs. (4) Bethune-Cookman (18-16, 11-5)

Tipoff: 1 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 25 – Norfolk State 75-72*. RPI: Norfolk State 134, B-C 243. Analysis: Norfolk is the class of the MEAC. Pick: Norfolk State 78, Bethune-Cookman 66.

MOUNTAIN WEST FINAL: AT LAS VEGAS

(1) San Diego State (26-6, 10-4) vs. (2) New Mexico (25-6, 10-4)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. TV: NBC Sports Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 18 – San Diego State 75-70*; Feb. 15 – New Mexico 77-67*. RPI: San Diego State 22, New Mexico 34. Analysis: How good did the Pack look in a virtual road game on Friday? Whoa! Pick: New Mexico 79, San Diego State 73.

PAC-12 FINAL: AT LOS ANGELES

(4) Arizona (23-10, 12-6) vs. (6) Colorado (22-11, 11-7)

Tipoff: 6:10 p.m. TV: CBS. Regular-season meetings: Jan 21 – Colorado 64-63; Feb. 9 – Arizona 71-57. RPI: Colorado 77, Arizona 84. Analysis: How does the Pac-12 deserve more than one team? Anyway, this one is a toss-up. Pick: Arizona 63, Colorado 58.

SOUTHLAND FINAL: AT KATY, TEXAS

(3) Lamar (22-11, 11-5) vs. (4) McNeese State (17-14, 10-6)

Tipoff: 3 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 11 – McNeese 57-54; March 3 – Lamar 78-68. RPI: Lamar 118, McNeese 177. Analysis: Did you see what the Cowboys did to the UTA, which dominated the league all season? Take the points. Line: Lamar -5½. Pick: McNeese State 71, Lamar 69.

SWAC FINAL: AT GARLAND, TEXAS

(1) Mississippi Valley State (20-12, 17-1) vs. (2) Texas Southern (17-14, 13-5)

Tipoff: 8 p.m. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 23 – MVSU 77-69 (OT)*; Feb. 20 – MVSU 56-53. RPI: MVSU 153, Texas Southern 231. Analysis: Valley wins, but the Tigers cover. Pick: Mississippi Valley State 60, Texas Southern 59.

WAC FINAL: AT LAS VEGAS

(2) New Mexico State (25-9, 10-4) vs. (5) Louisiana Tech (18-15, 6-8)

Tipoff: Midnight. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 7 – NMSU 83-73*; Feb. 4 – NMSU 83-72. RPI: New Mexico State 69, Louisiana Tech 170. Analysis: Been saying all year that the Aggies would win this tournament. Nevada’s elimination only solidifies that. Pick: New Mexico State 84, Louisiana Tech 72.

Montana Wins Big Sky Title: Wednesday's Quick Hitters

Raphielle Johnson — Wed, 07 Mar 2012 23:50:31 -0800

UConn and USF were the big winners on Wednesday at Madison Square Garden, while West Virginia and Seton Hall now await their NCAA tournament fate.

1. Montana pulls away in the second half to beat Weber State and win the Big Sky's automatic bid.
The Big Sky title game was one of two championship game rubber matches on Wednesday night, and even though the home team won each meeting by double digits the expectation was that the Wildcats and Grizzlies would be close throughout. That was true for about 33 minutes, as from the 6:41 mark on Montana outscored Weber State 27-14 on their way to the 85-66 victory. Damian Lillard played very well for Weber State, finishing with 29 points, ten rebounds and seven assists, but on this night he likely would have needed to score in upwards of 40 points to give Randy Rahe's team a shot at winning.

Why? Because while Montana didn't receive one point from their bench all five starters reached double figures, with Kareem Jamar and Mathias Ward scored 23 points apiece to lead the way. In addition to those two the Grizzlies can also call on guard Will Cherry and Derek Selvig, which could make them a tough matchup for someone next week. Both teams will return some key pieces next season, meaning that Weber State and Montana could very well meet with another NCAA berth on the line in 2013.

2. C.J. McCollum and Gabe Knutson prove to be too much for Bucknell in the Patriot League final.
Patriot League Player of the Year McCollum did what he's done all season long in scoring 29 points to lead Lehigh offensively, but the fact that the Mountain Hawks had a second scorer while the Bison did not proved to be the difference. Gabe Knutson added 23 points and seven rebounds, five of them being offensive, in the Mountain Hawks' 82-77 win at Bucknell to take the automatic bid. Mike Muscala was outstanding for the Bison as he finished with 30 points and 14 rebounds, but the next scorer for Bucknell finished with just 11 points (Bryson Johnson, who made two of his three field goals in the final minute).

Lehigh did a better job of executing offensively as they found quality looks and shot 50% from the field, finishing with an efficiency of 113.9. According to statsheet.com a Bucknell opponent hadn't approached that number since Loyola (MD) posted a 116.1 back in December. Lehigh proved to be too much for Bucknell offensively, especially when factoring in the fact that Muscala didn't receive consistent scoring help on the other end.

3. LIU Brooklyn takes care of Robert Morris to win their second consecutive NEC tournament crown.
For the second straight season the Colonials and Blackbirds met with a trip to the NCAA tournament on the line, and just like last season it was the home team that emerged victorious. All five starters reached double figures for the Blackbirds, who pulled away in the second half to win 90-73. C.J. Garner led the way with 21 points and backcourt partner Jason Brickman added 18 and 11 assists, while forward Julian Boyd finished with 18 and ten rebounds.

Andy Toole's Colonials suffered a pair of unfortunate blows during the game as both Velton Jones and Mike McFadden suffered injuries, but the game was more about what Brickman was able to do at the point in running the LIU attack. The Blackbirds also outscored the Colonials 31-14 from the foul line, and their sheer ability to score helped make up for Robert Morris grabbing 21 offensive rebounds. Rebounding's been an issue for much of the season for LIU, and if they want to improve their chances of winning a game Boyd, Jamal Olasewere and Kenny Onyechi will need to lead the way towards improvement.

Quick Hitters

1. After winning the MEAC regular season crown in their first year as a full member of the league, Savannah State fell 59-46 to Hampton in a MEAC tournament quarterfinal. Horace Broadnax's team shot 27.1% from the field and 5-for-22 from beyond the arc, and their 20 turnovers didn't help matters either. The regular season title does guarantee the Tigers an NIT berth, but obviously they would rather not have to use that automatic bid.

2. Two disciplinary actions taken on Wednesday did a better job of summing up what this season has been like for the Pac-12 than any stat that's been thrown out there. Arizona suspended starting point guard Josiah Turner indefinitely due to a violation of team rules, and he won't be playing at all this weekend. And UCLA head coach Ben Howland sat big man Joshua Smith for the first half of their 55-40 win over USC due to his being late for the team bus to the arena.

3. Compared to how they were playing in for most of conference play, these last couple of weeks have been a bit of a struggle for Sean Woods' Mississippi Valley State team. The Delta Devils survived their SWAC quarterfinal on Wednesday, beating Jackson State 63-60 to advance to the semis. Cor-J Cox provided a spark off the bench with 12 points, six rebounds and five steals, but if MVSU is to back up their regular season title with a tournament crown they can't afford to shoot 3-for-17 from three as they did against Jackson State.

4. The top four seeds in the Southland all advanced to the semifinals, with the top seeds making short work of their respective opponents. Regular season champ UT Arlington beat Nicholls State 96-48 as Bo Ingram led four Mavericks in double figures with 21 points to go along with seven rebounds. Two-seed Stephen F. Austin beat Sam Houston State 68-46, shooting 55.6% from the field and 24-for-30 from the foul line. Also advancing were Lamar and McNeese State.

5. On a day that saw three of the four higher-seeded teams advance at the Conference USA tournament the one winner that should stand out is Marshall, who beat SMU 74-56. DeAndre Kane led the way with 18 points and Dennis Tinnon grabbed 15 rebounds for the Thundering Heard, who have the talent necessary to make a run through the tournament.

6. Chalk ruled the two matchups in the MAC on Wednesday as Western Michigan and Toledo advanced to the quarterfinals. The Rockets led Northern Illinois by 11 with just over four minutes remaining, only to see the Huskies nearly come back and grab the win. Rian Pearson led Toledo with 20 points and 15 rebounds.

7. While the CBI has taken teams with losing records in the past, Oklahoma's season may be finished thanks to their 62-53 loss to Texas A&M in the first round of the Big 12 tournament. David Lobeau and Khris Middleton led the Aggies with 15 points apiece, combing for 30 points and 16 rebounds on the night. Also advancing was Oklahoma State, who beat Texas Tech 76-60.

Bracketology: Remaining Teams That Can Steal Bids

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 06 Mar 2012 19:55:54 -0800

While bubble teams were able to breathe easier when Murray St and Creighton won close conference titles, the coast is not entirely clear.

Here's a brief look at the remaining teams most likely to "steal" bids from the bubble hopefuls**.

ACC

With UNC and Duke lurking, its hard to imagine a spoiler coming from the ACC, but you never know..

Clemson (16-14, 8-8, RPI #138)

The ACC might be down this year, but .500 in that league still counts for something. The Tigers would need to beat VT in the opening round and then steal one from Duke. Clemson only lost to Duke by 7 at Cameron.

Maryland (16-14, 6-10, RPI #110)

The Terps have an easy opening game against Wake Forest, and they'd they have to beat UNC in the quarterfinals.

Atlantic 10
While Temple and St Louis are locks, there is a ton of parity in the A10. All of these teams deserve more respect than they get nationally and are extremely dangerous in the A10 tournament.

Dayton (20-11, 9-7, #73)

Dayton cruised past GW in the opening round and now faces Xavier. While Xavier is more likely to get an at-large bid, both teams have similar resumes. The loser of that game will be eliminated from at-large contention.

La Salle (210-11, 9-7, #79)

La Salle beat a tough Richmond squad in the opening round and now faces Saint Louis. La Salle struggled against the Billikens earlier in the year, but does have a geographical advantage playing in Atlantic City.

St Bonaventure (17-11, 10-6, #95)

A dangerous squad, St Bonaventure faces bubble team Saint Joseph's Wednesday afternoon. The Bonnies have already beaten Saint Joe's and with Andrew Nicholson leading the way, no one wants to face them.

UMASS (21-10, 9-7, #87)

UMASS topped Duquesne Tuesday night, which sets up an afternoon game with #1 seed Temple. UMASS took Temple to OT a few weeks, so they're far from scared.

Big East

UCONN showed that its not impossible to run through the Big East Tournament from a Tuesday start.

Pittsburgh (17-15, 5-13, #98)

Perhaps there is a little bit of magic left from this preseason top 25 team that struggled mightily.

Big Ten
These 3 teams have had their moments during the season, and would need to go on epic runs to win the league.

Illinois (17-14, 6-12, #82)

As bad as Illinois has been, how many teams have beaten the likes of Michigan St, Ohio St, and Gonzaga. The Illini would need Brandon Paul to go off for 40 every game in Indy..

Iowa (16-15, 8-10, #131)

Iowa has been surprisingly competitive this year, and has beaten Wisconsin twice along with beating Michigan and Indiana. They face Illinois in round one, the winner could have great momentum going forward.

Minnesota (18-13, 6-12, #81)

Once considered a potential tourney team, Minnesota's season went south in a hurry. They face bubble team Northwestern in round one and could seriously hurt the Wildcats at-large hopes.

Conference USA

While the RPI suggests Memphis and Southern Miss are by far the class of this league, these teams certainly have to be feared. If not for the tournament being in Memphis, the odds of one of these teams stealing a bid would be even bigger.

UCF (21-9, 10-6, #64)

With an opening round by, the Knights would face the winner of UAB or Tulane in round two. UCF is a close loss or two away from being firmly in the NCAA Tournament field. With the exception of one bad showing at Memphis, UCF has been competitive in every CUSA game.

Marshall (18-12, 9-7, #66)

Like UCF, Marshall is a dangerous squad that could be looking at the NCAA's with a little more luck. As it is, they have a very favorable spot in the bracket, opening against SMU and then potentially facing Tulsa in the quarterfinals.

Tulsa (17-13, 10-6, #112)

Most wouldn't have guessed that Tulsa would earn the #3 seed in the CUSA Tournament.

UTEP (14-16, 7-9, #158)

A real darkhorse as a #8 seed, UTEP has beaten Memphis and Southern Miss this year, so you never what could happen if they got hot.

MWC
The MWC is a small league, so you only have to win 3 games to earn the title.

Wyoming (20-10, 6-8, #80)

The Cowboys face UNLV in the opening round, and have already beaten the Rebels. While they've struggled away from home, they can't be written off.

TCU (17-13, 7-7, #101)

TCU can ruin Colorado St's bubble hopes in the opening round. The two split their season series, and the game should be close.

Pac-12
The Pac-12 is a complete mess. Cal and Washington can't be considered locks and a ton of teams could potentially win the league title.

Arizona (21-10, 12-6, #77)

Arizona awaits the winner of UCLA/USC after getting a first round bye.

Colorado (19-11, 11-7, #83)

The #6 seed opens with lowly Utah. The Buffs aren't that much worse than anyone else in the league.

Stanford (20-10, 10-8, #97)

The only team in the league to beat a Top 50 opponent in non-conference play, Stanford has been playing better after slumping a few weeks back.

UCLA (18-13, 11-7, #118)

With the tournament in Los Angeles, and a favorable bracket, you certainly can't write off the Bruins.

SEC

Outside of Kentucky, the SEC is much more even than you might think. Teams like Florida and Vanderbilt are overrated, and 2nd seed Tennessee is not that great away from home. Kentucky might lose focus, and then the league is up for grabs.

Arkansas (18-13, 6-10, #100)

If the Hogs can get by LSU, they'd face Kentucky in the quarterfinals. If they could somehow beat UK..

LSU (17-13, 7-9, #89)

The same exact situation as Arkansas.

**I'll define the bubble as including the following teams:

BYU

California

Colorado St

Drexel

Miami

NC State

Northwestern

Ole Miss

Oregon

Saint Joseph's

Seton Hall

South Florida

Tennessee

Texas

UCONN

Washington

Xavier

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NITology: Iowa Making Move, Marshall Fading

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 28 Feb 2012 09:10:34 -0800

Iowa and TCU join the fray, while Wyoming gets edged out in the latest 2012 NIT field. The field below is not who I think deserves to be in, but simply a prediction of what the committee would do as things stand today. NIT-Ology is released following CollegeHoops.net's weekly 2012 Bracketology update.

Notes on the NIT Field and NIT Bracketology: The NIT field is compose of 32 teams, including regular season champions that do not win their conference tournament. There is no way to predict how many regular season champions will lose their tournaments or which teams that might be. Thus, all that is listed here is the 24 most likely "at-large" teams.

For a statistical breakdown of NCAA Bubble teams, check out the weekly Bubble Watch.

Arrows indicate teams that made a major move since the previous week. New teams in green. Teams that are currently winning their conference tournament (and thus projected to be in the NCAA field) are not included.

First Out: South Florida, St. Joseph's, VCU, Dayton

Further Four: Tennessee, Oregon, Colorado St, NC State

NCAA BUBBLE: Last 5 In

West Virginia

Cincinnati

Mississippi St

Texas

Arizona (complete NCAA projection)

ONE

Tennessee

South Florida

St. Joseph's

NC State

TWO

Dayton

Colorado St

VCU

Oregon

THREE

Illinois

LSU

Colorado

Maryland

FOUR

Arkansas

Stanford

Iowa

UCF

FIVE

Ole Miss

Northern Iowa

New Mexico St

UMASS

SIX

Oklahoma St

Ohio

George Mason

TCU

SEVEN

?

?

?

?

EIGHT

?

?

?

?

First Out: Wyoming, Missouri St, South Dakota St, La Salle

Dropped Out of NIT Field: La Salle, Marshall, Missouri St, Pittsburgh, Wyoming

Bracketology Implications: 18 Bubble Games Wednesday

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 21 Feb 2012 22:35:21 -0800

Tuesday's bubble teams went 3-6, including big wins by Seton Hall, Kansas St, and Colorado St. With 58 games on tap, here's what to watch for Wednesday as it relates to NCAA Tournament & NIT Bracketology:

Major Bubble Games

Minnesota (17-10, 5-9) vs #6 Michigan St (22-5, 11-3)

Coming off 3 straight losses, Minnesota needs a big win in the worst way. While their overall RPI is not good, they've beaten 6 RPI Top 100 teams, including a shock win at Indiana. Adding Michigan St to their resume suddenly puts them back in the Big Dance picture.. and would give them much needed momentum heading into a rematch with Indiana. This game could change Minnesota's season.

#2 Syracuse (27-1, 14-1) vs South Florida (17-10, 10-4)

Normally, 10-4 Big East teams are NCAA locks. But with the unbalanced schedule, South Florida's record isn't as good as it seems. USF has just one RPI Top 50 win (over Seton Hall) and some questionable losses to the likes of Penn State and Old Dominion. Obviously, it would be a game changer if South Florida managed to beat Syracuse at the Carrier Dome. Don't bank it.

#25 San Diego St (20-6, 6-4) vs Wyoming (18-8, 4-6)

Despite wins over UNLV and Colorado St, Wyoming's tournament hopes are fading fast. A win at SDSU would give them 3 Top 30 RPI wins, something very few teams can claim. San Diego St dropped 12 spots in the AP Poll Monday, and a loss to Wyoming would strip them of any votes. Also, its non inconceivable to suggest that a loss would put them back on the bubble considering they're mediocre RPI. SDSU needs to take care of business before their season spirals out of control.

Tennessee (14-13, 6-6) vs Ole Miss (15-11, 5-7)

Like LSU, Tennessee is also .500 in SEC play. The Vols have had an up and down season that includes wins over UCONN and Florida (twice.) Perhaps that shows those teams weakness more than anything else, but you can't argue that Tennessee is playing better of late. Tennessee has been great at home and can't afford a slip-up here. Ole Miss actually has a much better RPI than Tennessee at 62nd, but no wow wins. A 4-0 finish would certainly give them a chance though, so this game is big for both sides. Both teams need to treat this like an elimination game.

Secondary Bubble Games

St. Joseph's (18-10, 8-5) vs Richmond (14-14, 5-8)

This is a must-win for St. Joseph's. The Hawks beat Richmond on a road, so it seems like a lock, but you never know. If St. Joseph's won, it would set up a huge game against Temple later in the week. A Hawks team that was 20-10, and 10-5 in A10 play would suddenly look like a major NCAA threat.

Long Beach St (19-7, 12-0) vs UCSB (15-8, 9-3)

As much as media, fans, and various computer ranking respect Long Beach St, its hard to see them getting a bit at this point. Pitt's struggles have rendered that win meaningless, which leaves Xavier as the sole big win. Still, if LBSU rolled through their remaining 4 league games and went to the Big West finals, you never know.

Rice (15-12, 6-6) vs UCF (19-7, 8-4)

UCF has some big wins (UCONN & Memphis) and a head-scratching loss (ULL). A trip to Rice is far from easy, but extremely important. A win tonight followed by a win against UTEP sets up a huge game against Memphis next week. But the Memphis game becomes meaningless if they don't get the job done here.

LSU (16-10, 6-6) vs Georgia (12-14, 3-9)

LSU has a decent RPI (65th), and a decent .500 SEC record. They're a very good team at home, but decent overall. This is a must-win game against a sub-par opponent.

Fringe Bubble Games: Bubble Team in Bold

Drexel (23-5, 14-2) vs James Madison (11-18, 4-12)

Drexel's been getting hype with votes in both the AP & Coaches polls. Odd, considering they've lost to Delaware, Norfolk St, and Georgia St. Another win keeps hope (and the hype-machine) alive.

UNCW (9-18, 5-11) vs VCU (23-6, 13-3)

VCU fairs better in other statistical ratings than they do in the RPI. The Rams' best win all season was by a point at Akron. VCU needs to win out, head to the CAA finals, and then hope last year's run gives them extra cachet.

Northeastern (12-15, 8-8) vs George Mason (23-6, 14-2)

George Mason has overcome early struggles to have a fine season. But they only have 2 Top 100 RPI wins, and both came at home. Like VCU, they're only hope is to win out through the conference final and hope for the best.

Duquesne (15-11, 6-6) vs Dayton (16-10, 6-6)

A home loss to Duquesne was one of two straight home losses (the other being to URI) that really ruined the Flyers season. A revenge win would not only feel good, but keep their slim hopes alive.

Marshall (16-10, 7-5) vs Houston (12-13, 4-8)

Marshall's season had a lot of promise, but they've struggled on the road in conference play. Their schedule is very favorable from here and out, including home games against Memphis and Southern Miss. If they went 4-0 the rest of the way, they'd have the makings of a tournament-worthy resume.

Sort of Bubble Games: Bubble Team in Bold

La Salle (18-9, 7-5) vs #22 Temple (21-5, 10-2)

La Salle is quietly going about their business and having a very solid season. A win would push them into the 60's of the RPI and at 8-5 in a good A10, they'd have to be taken seriously.

Iowa St (19-8, 9-5) vs Texas Tech (8-18, 1-13)

While I have Iowa St as a #9 seed right now, others feel they are closer to the bubble. A shock loss to Texas Tech would put them right back on the bubble.

UTEP (13-13, 6-6) vs Southern Miss (22-5, 9-3)

With the 11th best RPI, you'd figure Southern Miss was as safe as can be. But this would ignore the committee's history of non-BCS bias. The loss to Houston raised a lot of eyebrows, and so would a loss to UTEP. This is far from a lock win (UTEP just won at Memphis), and Southern Miss is probably not as big of a lock as you might think.

Memphis (19-8, 9-3) vs East Carolina (12-13, 3-9)

Basically, the same sentiment as the Southern Miss game applies here. Despite the solid Top 30 RPI, the Tigers don't have a load of eye-catching wins, and the home loss to UTEP gave the doubters fodder. This is an easy game, so a loss against ECU would be devastating.

Akron (19-8, 11-1) vs Bowling Green (14-12, 7-5)

Akron's a solid team with a solid #63 RPI. In a different conference, they'd be a bubble team, but in the MAC, they have virtually no chance.. which is why this is the "sort of" category.

Poll: How Many CUSA Teams Will Make the Tournament?

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 19 Feb 2012 08:47:30 -0800

#6 Baylor vs. #10 Kansas: Wednesday's Preview

Raphielle Johnson — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 20:39:45 -0800

To say that this is a big week for Scott Drew's Baylor (21-2, 8-2) Bears would be a major understatement, and the same goes for the Kansas (18-5, 8-2) Jayhawks in this pivotal Big 12 battle. These are two of the three teams tied for first in the loss column in the conference, and with Baylor visiting 9-2 Missouri on Saturday afternoon we should have a solid grasp on who will be in the driver's seat down the stretch.

Kansas won the first meeting 92-74 in Lawrence, pulling away during the latter stages of the first half thanks in large part to the play of forward Thomas Robinson and point guard Tyshawn Taylor. Robinson (18.0 ppg, 12.0 rpg) posted his customary double-double on a night that saw the Bears punished for their inability to box out. Baylor only plays their troublesome 2-3 zone about half the time, so this was an issue more about fundamentals than their system having them out of place.

On the season Baylor's opponents average 12.4 offensive rebounds per game, and while the offensive rebounding percentage (32.8%) isn't terrible it's not what you'd expect of a team with five players 6'9" or taller. Three of those players are averaging double figures in scoring with sophomore Perry Jones III (14.8 ppg, 7.9 rpg) leading the way. Freshman Quincy Miller (12.4 ppg, 5.3 rpg) is arguably their most versatile front court player while senior Quincy Acy (12.4 ppg, 7.0 rpg) provides the heart, as he's made some big plays in "winning time" for the Bears.

The key for Kansas in the rematch will be to get a similar effort from Jeff Withey (8.1 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 3.0 bpg) as they received in the first contest. The San Diego native was two blocks away from a triple-double, a fact that left many observers stunned by the end of the night. This is a better matchup for Withey than Missouri, whose quickness rendered him nearly non-existent on Saturday night. While both teams are good on the offensive glass Kansas has been better keeping opponents at bay on the other end (28.1% OR), and doing so once again will be important if they're to win in Waco.

The point guard matchup is an intriguing one due to the fact that both Taylor (16.9 ppg, 5.2 apg) and Baylor's Pierre Jackson (12.7 ppg, 5.9 apg) are both two of the best in the Big 12, but they also have moments when their respective coaches wonder what's going on. Turnovers will be key for both teams, especially those of the "live-ball" variety as both teams have some of the nation's best finishers.

Jackson won't start the game (A.J. Walton does) but more often than not he finishes it, and shooting free throws at an 84% clip should leave Baylor fans at ease when he's in control late. Baylor also calls on Brady Heslip (9.6 ppg, 43.9% 3PT) on the perimeter while Kansas will counter with Elijah Johnson (9.2 ppg, 3.6 apg) and Travis Releford (9.6 ppg, 4.2 rpg). There isn't much separating the two teams when looking at turnover percentage on either side of the ball, and despite having a slightly higher percentage (21.5%) it's Baylor who's been the more efficient team offensively.

Did Allen Fieldhouse have that much of an impact on Baylor in the first meeting, or was Kansas simply that much better? The rematch won't provide a definitive answer to that question (which is probably an unfair one to ask anyway), but it will give an answer to the question of which team is better equipped to win the Big 12.

Two of the sport's biggest rivalries will also be on display as #2 Syracuse hosts #11 Georgetown and #9 Duke makes the short trek to Chapel Hill to take on #5 North Carolina. The Orange had it rolling on Saturday afternoon as they pasted an undermanned St. John's team and the return of Fab Melo did play a role in that. But the Hoyas also have a much-improved center in senior Henry Sims, and a perimeter led by Jason Clark and Hollis Thompson should be good about finding quality shots within Syracuse's 2-3 zone. Georgetown has to also find a way to limit the impact that reserves such as Dion Waiters and C.J. Fair have on the game, meaning that they have to keep the game from turning into an odd-man track meet.

As for Duke, they've got a tough assignment as they look to not only bounce back from a disappointing loss to Miami but also keep from falling two games behind UNC and Florida State in the ACC. The Blue Devils had no answer for Miami's Reggie Johnson (Kenny Kadji also played well), and while neither John Henson nor Tyler Zeller is as wide as Johnson they're both more than a handful for opponents. Duke has to get good decision-making from their guards (Austin Rivers, Seth Curry and Quinn Cook being three) at the Dean Dome and some good shooting from Andre Dawkins wouldn't hurt either.

Marshall, who at one point earlier this season looked to be a lock to reach the Field of 68, needs to get rolling in a hurry if they're to get back into the discussion. DeAndre Kane and company visit a UCF team led by forward Keith Clanton in what should be a good Conference USA matchup. Wichita State can take sole possession of first place in the Missouri Valley with a win over Northern Iowa ahead of their trip to Omaha on Saturday, and the contest between borough rivals LIU Brooklyn and St. Francis (NY) has been made even better by the fact that they're playing at Madison Square Garden and Glen Braica's done an outstanding job with the Terriers as well.

Top 25 Games
7:00 PM (11) Georgetown at (2) Syracuse (ESPN)
9:00 PM (9) Duke at (5) North Carolina (ESPN)
7:00 PM (10) Kansas at (6) Baylor (ESPN2)
6:30 PM Penn State at (12) Michigan State (BTN)
7:00 PM (17) Florida State at Boston College (ESPN3)
7:30 PM Wake Forest at (20) Virginia (ESPN3)
8:30 PM (25) Michigan at Nebraska (BTN)

NCAA Division I Games
6:00 PM George Washington at Temple
7:00 PM UNC Wilmington at Delaware
7:00 PM Pittsburgh at South Florida (ESPN3)
7:00 PM Wagner at Mount St. Mary's
7:00 PM Memphis at East Carolina
7:00 PM Monmouth at Fairleigh Dickinson (ESPN3)
7:00 PM Drexel at James Madison
7:00 PM La Salle at Richmond
7:00 PM Lafayette at Army
7:00 PM Bowling Green at Ball State
7:00 PM Marshall at UCF
7:00 PM Buffalo at Central Michigan
7:00 PM Bucknell at Colgate
7:00 PM Kent State at Eastern Michigan
7:00 PM Hofstra at George Mason (ESPN3)
7:00 PM Northeastern at Georgia State
7:00 PM Jacksonville State at Morehead State
7:00 PM Holy Cross at Navy
7:00 PM Central Connecticut State at Quinnipiac
7:00 PM Bryant University at Sacred Heart
7:00 PM Robert Morris at St. Francis (PA)
7:00 PM Cincinnati at St. John's
7:00 PM Ohio at Toledo
7:00 PM Akron at Western Michigan (ESPN3)
7:00 PM Old Dominion at William & Mary
7:00 PM Rhode Island at Xavier (CBS SN)
7:05 PM Houston Baptist at Bethune-Cookman
7:30 PM St. Bonaventure at Massachusetts
7:30 PM Towson at VCU (ESPN3)
8:00 PM Southern Miss at UAB
8:00 PM Arkansas at Georgia (ESPN3)
8:00 PM Indiana State at Bradley
8:00 PM Missouri State at Southern Illinois (ESPN3)
8:00 PM Rice at Houston
8:00 PM Cal State Bakersfield at Texas-Pan American
8:00 PM Central Arkansas at Texas State
8:00 PM Northwestern State at Lamar
8:00 PM Miami (OH) at Northern Illinois
8:00 PM Texas-Arlington at Sam Houston State (ESPN3)
8:00 PM TCU at Southern Methodist
8:00 PM Nicholls State at Stephen F. Austin
8:00 PM South Carolina at Tennessee (ESPN3)
8:00 PM Southeastern Louisiana at UTSA
8:00 PM Northern Iowa at Wichita State (ESPN3)
8:05 PM Drake at Illinois State
8:30 PM Saint Louis at Saint Joseph's
9:00 PM Seton Hall at Rutgers (ESPN2)
9:00 PM LSU at Vanderbilt (ESPN3)
9:00 PM Notre Dame at West Virginia
9:00 PM LIU Brooklyn at St. Francis (NY)
9:00 PM Tulsa at UTEP (CBS SN)

Wednesday Recap: Oklahoma State Beats #2 Missouri

Raphielle Johnson — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 00:12:03 -0800

Consistency has been an issue for the Oklahoma State Cowboys this season, and it's been an issue for highly-touted freshman Le'Bryan Nash as well. After scoring 21 points in the Cowboys' 71-68 loss to Iowa State (which ended at the buzzer on a Scott Christopherson three) Nash scored just four points in a 66-58 home loss to Kansas State. But the Dallas native brought his "A-game" to Gallagher-Iba Arena on Wednesday night, making 12 of 18 shots from the field to score 27 points while also grabbing four rebounds in Oklahoma State's 79-72 win over #2 Missouri.

"Le'Bryan Nash played at a very high level. All his moves were a little bit more explosive," remarked Oklahoma State head coach Travis Ford. "Everyone is going to look at his 27 points, but his defense was better than his offense. It's not a coincidence that he told me yesterday he was going to be ready today and he had a good practice."

Brian Williams added 22 points and Keiton Page 12 on a night that saw the Pokes shoot 59.6% from the field, a stunning development given the fact that Oklahoma State entered the game dead last in the Big 12 in field goal percentage. But as with Nash personally it was Oklahoma State's improved defensive effort down the stretch that allowed them to put the game away. Phil Pressey, who leads the conference in assists per game, could only muster two assists and as a team Missouri finished with just eight assists (they average nearly 16 per game). Missouri assists on 56.4% of their baskets on the season but the number on Wednesday was 30.8%, which played right into the hands of the Cowboys.

Nash's performance became even more important when Markel Brown was given his second technical foul after an emphatic dunk with 6:57 remaining. Following two Marcus Denmon free throws the Cowboys were down 58-53 and two more free throws from Ricardo Ratliffe put the Tigers up seven. Nash scored 13 points in the final 6:31 to lead the Cowboys to a win that the young players really needed given their two games prior to Wednesday. Ratliffe led the Tigers with 25 points and 12 rebounds but they were unable to take advantage of 20 points off of 16 OSU turnovers and a 16-6 edge in second-chance points. The key for both Nash and Oklahoma State now is to play a consistent brand of basketball.

"It's a huge win for us, it's a big win, but it just shows us what we're capable of," said Page. "It shows us that we can play with anybody. We still have a long ways to go...We've gotta get more wins, get some wins on the road."

Other Notable Happenings

1. Saint Louis wins at Xavier, and after Wednesday 11 of the 14 teams in the A-10 have either two or three league losses.
Despite entering their game with a 15-4 record Rick Majerus' Billikens needed a solid road victory due in large part to a strength of schedule that left something to be desired. Brian Conklin scored 19 points and Rob Loe led three other SLU players in double figures with 14 points on their way to the 73-68 win over the Musketeers at the Cintas Center. Conklin was a big reason for Saint Louis' 28-18 edge in points in the paint, and the Billikens received more contributions across the board than a Xavier team that didn't receive much help outside of Mark Lyons (career-high 27 points) and Tu Holloway (22 points).

Jeff Robinson scored ten points and grabbed six rebounds for Xavier but the other big men didn't do much of consequence. Xavier has been the gold standard in the Atlantic 10 for quite some time, and while there's more competition atop the conference it's important to not think that their run is suddenly over. Saint Joseph's win over Dayton pulled the Flyers back to the pack, as now 11 teams sit anywhere from 4-2 to 3-3. To say the least the race for the A-10 crown will be wildly entertaining over the next month.

2. Pittsburgh finally gets their first Big East win as they took their frustrations out on Providence.
The struggles of the Panthers, who entered Wednesday with an eight-game losing streak, were well-doucmented and hadn't been seen in the Steel City for quite some time. That made the game against Providence that much more important, and thanks to a hot Ashton Gibbs the Panthers picked up their first Big East win. Gibbs scored 14 straight points late in the first half as Pittsburgh took control of the game, finishing with 22 points while Tray Woodall (17 points, nine assists) and Nasir Robinson (14 points, six rebounds) also reached double figures in the 86-74 win.

Pittsburgh, who assists on 61.2% of their baskets this season, finished Wednesday's game with an assist percentage of 68.8% and Woodall (who didn't have the rust that was evident in Saturday's loss to Louisville) is a big reason why. The shame for Providence is that their defensive performance overshadowed an outstanding night from point guard Vincent Council (26 points, ten rebounds and nine assists), but there isn't a whole lot you can do when a team makes 11 of 20 shots from beyond the arc. Whether or not this win serves as a major catalyst for Pitt remains to be seen, but they simply needed to get something going and they did that.

3. BYU beats Virginia Tech by two in Blacksburg, but was this a game that would have had a bigger impact in defeat?
Dave Rose's Cougars entered this week with an RPI of 55 and a strength of schedule of 97, and while games against Saint Mary's and Gonzaga are bigger in the grand scheme of things their final non-conference game of the season was also important. But thanks in large part to Virginia Tech's struggles the Cougars' game in Blacksburg took on the appearance of one that could do more harm in defeat than good in victory. BYU took care of business, winning 70-68, with Noah Hartsock (22 points, seven rebounds) and Brandon Davies (17 points, five rebounds) leading the way.

The Cougars won despite a poor shooting night from Charles Abouo and Matt Carlino, who combined to make just six of twenty-eight shots on the night. While many may expect this group to attempt to fire away from deep as they did last season with Jimmer Fredette and (to a lesser extent) Jackson Emery, that isn't realistic at this point. Relying on Davies and Hartsock in the frontcourt could be BYU's best bet when it comes to getting back into the WCC race, and it could be what they need to do to make sure they've got staying power in March as well.

Quick Hitters

1. Congratulations to Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo on his 400th victory, as the Spartans beat Minnesota 68-52 to move into a tie for first place in the Big Ten. Draymond Green led the way with 22 points, 14 rebounds and six assists and Branden Dawson added 16, four rebounds and four blocks.

2. Maryland honored former head coach Gary Williams, naming the Comcast Center court in his honor, but the emotion of the night wasn't enough to lead the Terrapins past #6 Duke. Mason Plumlee scored 23 points and grabbed 12 rebounds (four assists as well) in the Blue Devils' 74-61 win that was closer than the final score would indicate. Maryland shot 40.4% from the field but the bigger issue was the foul line, where they made 11 of 21 on the night.

3. With Creighton and Wichita State both winning while their closest competition in the Missouri Valley lost, the Bluejays and Shockers are four games up on the pack with eight to go. Unless one of those other teams can make something happen in "Arch Madness" it's very likely that the Valley is just a two-bid league. Garrett Stutz led the Shockers to an 86-74 win over Evansville with 23 points and eight rebounds, and Doug McDermott led Creighton past Drake with 30 points and nine rebounds.

4. Of the top four teams leading Conference USA it's anyone's guess as to who ends up reaching the NCAA Tournament, meaning that avoiding bad losses will be key in the final month-plus of the season. No such luck for Marshall, who lost 56-49 to UAB at home, or UCF as the Knights lost 66-61 at Tulsa. Memphis and Southern Miss both avoided this fate by taking care of business.

5. Just two weeks ago Seton Hall looked to be in good shape when it came to getting back to the Big Dance for the first time since 2006. But with three straight losses it may be wise to avoid that discussion, with the Pirates falling 55-42 to Notre Dame in Newark. Senior leaders Jordan Theodore and Herb Pope combined to shoot 6-for-28 from the field, and Seton Hall struggled with Notre Dame's deliberate offense. Next up for Kevin Willard's team is Louisville, followed by road games at Marquette, UConn and rival Rutgers.

6. That could also apply to Alabama, who lost 56-54 at South Carolina on a Bruce Ellington basket with 1.4 seconds remaining. Ellington and Damontre Harris scored 12 points apiece and Malik Cooke led the Gamecocks with 18 points. Levi Randolph scored 12 points off the bench to lead the Crimson Tide, who are now 2-4 in the SEC, and JaMychal Green's ankle injury didn't help matters either.

7. Chris Fouch scored 15 points off the bench as Drexel whipped Georgia State 68-46 in Philadelphia to not only avenge their loss in Atlanta but establish some distance between the top four and the rest of the CAA. George Mason remains in first place with a 9-1 record after beating Hofstra while VCU and Old Dominion are tied with Drexel with 8-2 marks. The top four teams get first round byes in the CAA Tournament.

8. Things didn't go too well for West Virginia in their trip to Madison Square Garden as St. John's jumped them early on their way to the 78-62 victory. The favorite for Big East Rookie of the Year, Moe Harkless, led the Red Storm with 23 points and 13 rebounds while D'Angelo Harrison led three other Johnnies in double figures with 19 points. Kevin Jones led the Mountaineers with 26 points and 14 boards, but they never seemed to figure out the matchup zone St. John's threw their way.

Four Notable Performances

1. F Jackie Carmichael (Illinois State)
26 points, 16 rebounds and two assists in the Redbirds' 76-69 win over Missouri State.

2. F Draymond Green (Michigan State)
22 points, 14 rebounds and six assists in the Spartans' 68-52 win over Minnesota.

3. F Mike Moser (UNLV)
18 points, 21 rebounds, two assists, two blocked shots and two steals in UNLV's 77-72 overtime win at Boise State.

4. F Jared Sullinger (Ohio State)
20 points, 13 rebounds, two assists and two blocked shots in the Buckeyes' 78-54 win over Penn State.

New Mexico vs. #16 San Diego State: Wednesday's Preview

Raphielle Johnson — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 09:29:11 -0800

It looks as if the schedule-makers in the Mountain West wanted to spark some serious national conversation about the conference from the beginning of league play because the first full week of play will feature all three expected contenders facing each other. Wednesday's slate features #16 San Diego State (15-2, 1-0), fresh off of their two-point win over UNLV, visiting The Pit to take on a New Mexico (15-2, 1-0) squad that's quietly won thirteen in a row. The Lobos, preseason favorites to win the Mountain West, feature one of the best power forwards in senior Drew Gordon (12.4 ppg, 10.5 rpg) while guards Tony Snell (13.4 ppg, 3.2 rpg) and Kendall Williams (11.7 ppg, 4.4 apg, 3.6 rpg) have also played well during their current run.

Before scoring eight points in the Lobos' win at Wyoming on Saturday, Gordon reached double figures in eight straight games to rebound from an inconsistent start to the season. A key for SDSU will be to keep him off the offensive glass, something they've done a good job of this season as opponents rebound just 26.9% of their missed shots. If anything offensive rebounding will be a critical factor in the outcome as New Mexico grabs 36.4% of their misses and SDSU is a solid offensive rebounding team as well (33.4% OR percentage). The Aztecs don't have the marquee bodies in the frontcourt that they had last season but Steve Fisher's guys still attack the boards, and one of their best offensive rebounders is also an important scorer on the perimeter.

Jamaal Franklin (15.7 ppg, 6.5 rpg) grabs 1.6 offensive rebounds per game, a number that's third on the team to Deshawn Stephens (2.1) and Garrett Green (2.0). Franklin knocked down the game-winner on Saturday and scored 24 points while also grabbing ten rebounds, with the boards marking the third time in the last four games in which he's finished with ten caroms. If anything the Aztecs have plenty of depth on the perimeter as Chase Tapley (16.9 ppg, 4.3 rpg), Xavier Thames (11.0 ppg, 5.4 apg) and James Rahon (10.9 ppg, 2.9 rpg) all have the ability to hurt teams offensively. Rahon scored 22 points in the win over UNLV and seemed to have an answer for just about every UNLV charge.

Williams is one of the guards that Steve Alford will rely upon tonight, and he should be a solid bet to perform well coming off of back-to-back double-figure scoring performances for the first time since the final two games of the 76 Classic in late November. The one issue for Williams has been the drop in his percentages from last season, as his three-point percentage is down about ten points and the field goal percentage down six. But in the last three games Williams has made seven of eleven from distance, and the hope for UNM fans is that he'll continue on that path.

As for Snell (13.4 ppg, 3.2 rpg) he's been New Mexico's most consistent performer this season, increasing his scoring by nine points from last season and his percentages have made a signficant jump as well. Hugh Greenwood has missed the last two games with a sprained ankle, which has meant more time for Williams at the points and more minutes for Jamal Fenton (7.4 ppg, 2.6 apg) off the bench. Williams turned the ball over five times on Saturday but as a team the Lobos finished with 15 turnovers (they average 14 per game), so there wasn't a huge shift in that regard.

In addition to the rebounding three-point shooting is an area to keep an eye on with the Lobos scoring 30% of their points from beyond the arc. As a team New Mexico shoots 40.2% from deep, and while SDSU isn't a bad shooting team (35.2% 3PT) they rely more on getting to the basket. The Pit is one of the toughest environments in college basketball for a road team, and the Aztecs needed some big plays from D.J. Gay to win last year's meeting. He's no longer on Montezuma Mesa, meaning that a Franklin, Rahon or Tapley (Thames too) would likely have to be the guy. But as we've seen thus far, they're more than capable of doing so.

The Missouri Valley has a pair of marquee matchups on the slate with Creighton visiting Missouri State and Northern Iowa hosting Wichita State. Kyle Weems and the Bears handed Creighton its only league loss in Omaha earlier this month, and a sweep of the season series would go a long way in terms of bolstering a resume that's taken some hits as they've lost three of their last four.

As for UNI they sit at 3-4 in MVC play and their inconsistent offensive production is a big reason why. Do the Panthers have an answer for Garrett Stutz inside? He's raised his scoring nearly five points from last season and is grabbing nearly four more rebounds per game as well. WSU is 5-0 in road games this season and Stutz is averaging 16.4 points and 9.0 rebounds in those contests.

There's also a battle of Big Five teams as La Salle visits Temple and the perimeter matchups should be fun to watch. Dr. John Giannini's team has played both more consistently and unselfishly this season than last and guards Tyreek Duren and Ramon Galloway are two reasons why. Temple will counter with Ramone Moore, Khalif Wyatt and Juan Fernandez, but a player like Rahlir Hollis-Jefferson could factor into the outcome as the Explorers aren't the biggest team inside.

Also in the Atlantic 10 Saint Joseph's visits Xavier and UMass visits Duquesne in what should be two entertaining matchups. Cincinnati visits Connecticut in need of another resume-building win; keep in mind they've got that home loss to Presbyterian to account for and with the Huskies unlikely to have Ryan Boatright again the Bearcats will have an even better chance of winning. And keep an eye on two games involving Conference USA teams, with Memphis visiting UCF and Marshall stepping outside of the league to play West Virginia. Marquee games? Probably not, but there's more than enough to keep your attention tonight.

Top 25 Games
7:00 PM (10) Murray State at Morehead State (ESPN3)
7:00 PM Cincinnati at (11) Connecticut
7:00 PM (13) Indiana at Nebraska (BTN)
9:00 PM (15) Mississippi State at Ole Miss (ESPN3)
10:00 PM (16) San Diego State at New Mexico (CBS SN)
8:05 PM (18) Creighton at Missouri State
10:30 PM TCU at (20) UNLV(The Mtn.)

NCAA Division I Games
7:00 PM Richmond at George Washington
7:00 PM St. John's at USF (ESPN3)
7:00 PM Georgia State at Northeastern
7:00 PM Old Dominion at Towson
7:00 PM Bowling Green at Miami (OH)
7:00 PM Kent State at Ohio (ESPN3)
7:00 PM La Salle at Temple
7:00 PM Seton Hall at Villanova (ESPNU)
7:00 PM Colgate at Army
7:00 PM James Madison at UNC Wilmington
7:00 PM Akron at Buffalo
7:00 PM Ball State at Central Michigan
7:00 PM Massachusetts at Duquesne
7:00 PM Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan
7:00 PM Rhode Island at Fordham
7:00 PM Delaware at George Mason (ESPN3)
7:00 PM Drexel at Hofstra
7:00 PM Bucknell at Lehigh
7:00 PM Clemson at Miami (FL) (ESPN3)
7:00 PM American at Navy
7:00 PM Northern Illinois at Toledo
7:00 PM Saint Joseph's at Xavier
7:30 PM Marshall at West Virginia (ESPN3)
7:30 PM Kennesaw State at Charlotte
8:00 PM Tennessee at Georgia (ESPN3)
8:00 PM Tulane at Tulsa
8:00 PM UAB at Rice
8:00 PM Texas-Arlington at Texas A&M-CC
8:00 PM Wyoming at Air Force (The Mtn.)
8:00 PM Nicholls State at Central Arkansas
8:00 PM Memphis at UCF
8:00 PM Indiana State at Illinois State (ESPN3)
8:00 PM Southeastern Louisiana at McNeese State
8:00 PM Wichita State at Northern Iowa (ESPN3)
8:00 PM Texas State at Sam Houston State
8:00 PM Houston at SMU
8:00 PM Northwestern State at UTSA
8:05 PM Drake at Southern Illinois
8:05 PM Bradley at Evansville
9:00 PM Oklahoma State at Iowa State
9:00 PM Northwestern at Wisconsin (BTN)
9:00 PM Texas at Kansas State
9:00 PM East Carolina at UTEP
10:00 PM Cal State San Marcos at Fresno State
10:05 PM UC Riverside at Cal State Fullerton