sweet sixteen

Poll: Which Remaining #4 Seed Has Best Chance to Advance?

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 19 Mar 2012 11:03:40 -0400

Poll: How Would You Grade the Tournament So Far?

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 19 Mar 2012 11:00:33 -0400

Poll: How Many of the #1 Seeds Will Advance to the Final Four?

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 19 Mar 2012 10:55:08 -0400

Poll: Which Surprise Team Has Best Chance of Advancing to Elite 8?

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 19 Mar 2012 10:46:16 -0400

College Basketball: Preseason Top 50 Expectations vs Reality

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 19 Mar 2012 00:13:22 -0400

With a three day gap before the Sweet Sixteen, it seemed like an opportune time to reflect on my preseason Top 50 ranking. Who lived up to expectations? Who didn't? Who exceeded all hype?

Sweet Sixteen teams are in yellow font. Indiana, NC State and Ohio are Sweet Sixteen teams that didn't make the preseason Top 50. 10 of the eventual Sweet Sixteen teams were in my preseason top 17.

1 North Carolina Not #1 worthy regular-season, but perhaps they can still meet this goal

2 Kentucky Despite lofty 2nd ranking, Kentucky was substantially better than I expected

3 Ohio St Ended up lower in polls, but not by much

4 Syracuse Battled for #1 ranking much of season, but this prediction was about right

5 Duke Peaked in November and then slowly faded

6 Louisville Never this good, but did win Big East tourney due to impressive D

7 Florida Despite Sweet Sixteen trip, Florida not quite as good as I expected

8 UCONN Despite a high talent level, UCONN never played close to this level

9 Pittsburgh Okay, this pick looks really, really bad

10 Vanderbilt Bounced back after horrendous start to the season

11 Memphis RPI says Tigers not much worse than this, but reality says otherwise

12 Xavier Never lived up to these expectations, but find themselves in Sweet Sixteen

13 Kansas Snuck into Sweet Sixteen, had slightly better season than I expected

14 Texas A&M Never got on track after coaching change and Middleton injury

15 UCLA Like Pitt and A&M above, one of the handful of preseason Top 50 disasters

16 Wisconsin no complaints with this preseason call

17 Cincinnati Season had some very low moments, but there they are in Sweet Sixteen

18 Florida St A season with many ups and downs, this prediction doesnt look bad at all

19 Michigan Lost to Ohio in tourney first round, 19th ended up being about right

20 Arizona Never got over hump, Arizona is looking towards the future

21 Gonzaga Like Temple below, Gonzaga had the season expected of them

22 Temple Overall season almost precisely met these expectations

23 Marquette Emergence of Jae Crowder made them even better than this prediction

24 Alabama Struggled at times and did not live up to this ranking

25 Baylor Had a better season than I expected, still alive in tourney

26 Washington One of many disappointing Pac-12 teams. Never had a big win

27 New Mexico Fell 3 points short of Sweet Sixteen. Feel good about this call

28 Michigan St Exceeded my expectations due to Draymond Green's monster year

29 California The computers say this ranking was right on, but sometimes numbers lie

30 Missouri Had a fine regular season before embarrassing tourney loss to Norfolk St

31 Butler Considering all they lost, not surprised they didnt mean this lofty ranking

32 Purdue Just a basket or two away from Sweet Sixteen.

33 Texas Snuck into tourney, but never lived up to my expectations

34 UNLV Spent much of season in Top 20, but this ranking was not far off

35 Mississippi St Hung around this number for most of season, not a bad projection

36 Miami Fell just short of tourney, and fell short of this top 40 ranking

37 Villanova One of a handful of preseason Top 50 teams that absolutely stunk

38 Notre Dame At times were way worse than 38th, at times way better, but in end 38 is about right

39 Creighton Played their way into Top 25 due to McDermott's monster season

40 George Mason Had fine season, but 3rd best in CAA didnt warrant this ranking

41 West Virginia This ranking basically held true throughout the season

42 Marshall Hung around the bubble, but were more like the 60th best team

43 Drexel This ranking looked ridiculous early in season, but they caught fire

44 Belmont This ranking held relatively true, but Belmont never broke through

45 Wichita St Played their way into Top 25, but struggled in postseason play

46 Illinois After great start, collapsed, and now looking for a new coach

47 Saint Mary's Won WCC title, but fell short in disappointing Tourney loss to Purdue

48 Kent St Competed for MAC title, but never met these expectations

49 Kansas St Solid and steady season throughout, earned an 8 seed in tourney

50 VCU After a slow start, found their way back into the Tournament once again

Tourney Tidbits: Obscure Facts to Help you Pick Your Bracket

Jon Teitel — Mon, 12 Mar 2012 16:02:50 -0400

Every bit of information can help you win pick a better bracket. As part of his Bracket Tactics series, here are seven random factoids by Jon Teitel and how they can help you pick your bracket. Happy Picking!

Fact: Purdue has won 13 straight NCAA tournament openers since 1994 (longest active streak in country).

Strategy: The Boilermakers have played well whether they are seeded high (#1 seed in 1994) or low (#10 seed in 1999), so go ahead and advance them to the round of 32 (although Saint Mary's might try and do something about that streak).

Fact: There are only 7 active coaches who have won at least 70% of their NCAA tournament games (minimum 5 appearances).

Strategy: Louisville (Rick Pitino 74.5 W/L%) and Florida (Billy Donovan 73.3 W/L%) should not be overlooked.

Fact: There are 9 teams who have won at least 80% of their games in the round of 64 (minimum 5 games).

Strategy: Fight, shmight: Cincinnati has won 13 of its 15 opening games (86.7%). Look out Texas.

Fact: There are only 8 teams that have won at least 75% of their games in the round of 32 (minimum 5 games).

Strategy: Cinderella alert: If Davidson and/or Long Beach St can get win their opener, they have each won 4 of their 5 games (80%) when trying to get into the Sweet 16. Both of these teams are in the same pod.

Fact: The last champ with only 1 loss was Texas Western in 1966.

Strategy: Maybe it was a good thing Kentucky lost the SEC championship game.

Fact: Only 9 teams who have won at least 70% of their Sweet 16 games (minimum 5 games).

Strategy: Georgetown has won 8 of its 11 Sweet 16 games, but only Temple has won a perfect 7-of-7.

Fact: Nine teams have have won over 80% of their NCAA tournament games in their home state.

Strategy: You can bank on North Carolina (96.7 W/L%) and Duke (88.9 W/L%) in their Greensboro, NC games.

Also see: Tips On Picking the National Champion

Top 10 Sweet Sixteen Picks: 2012 Tournament

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 12 Mar 2012 14:19:49 -0400

Top 10 Sexy Sweet Sixteen Picks

Its one thing to pick a few first round upsets (here are 10 likely ones), its a whole other thing picking cinderella sweet sixteen teams. Every good bracket has at least one surprise sweet sixteen team (if not two), so here are the 10 best ones to choose from:

10 #12 VCU

Can last year's Cinderella team do it again? In a different spot, I'd think they'd have a much better chance to make a run, but Wichita St might be the best of the 5 seeds. VCU arguably deserved to be a 10 seed considering their top 40 RPI and strong finish. If VCU can get past Wichita St, then Indiana in the 2nd round might actually be an easier game.

9 #14 BYU/Iona

The odds of either of these teams advancing to the Sweet Sixteen is obviously hurt by the fact they'd need to win an extra game. But these teams are really 11 or 12 seeds that got knocked down to 14 because of scheduling issues. Both of these teams run high-octane, high-tempo offenses and thus should fare well against a Marquette team that plays a similar style.

8 #11 Texas

While Cincinnati had a good run in the Big East tournament, they're more than capable of flaming out early in the Big Dance. Texas has a lot of losses, but most of them are to Top 30 teams, and the computer rankings say that Cincinnati is not a Top 30 team. The biggest thing holding Texas back is a lack of 3-pt shooting.. if they happen to find a hot streak and J'Covan Brown is on his A game, the Sweet Sixteen is easily possible

7 #12 Harvard

With wins over Florida St and St. Joseph's, Harvard has shown ability to beat post-season quality teams. Facing Vanderbilt in the first round is not a bad draw for Harvard, considering Kevin Stalling's teams have been known to fizzle out in the NCAA Tournament. A potential second round matchup with Wisconsin seems favorable as the Badgers tempo plays right into Harvard's style.

6 #12 Long Beach St

Long Beach St lost to Top 5 teams North Carolina and Kansas by just 6 and 8 points in true road games. That shows you how dangerous the 49ers are. Point guard Casper Ware was hot in the Big West tournament, and he has the ability to dominate a game. If Long Beach St could somehow top New Mexico, they might even be favored in the next match against Louisville or Davidson.

5 #13 Ohio

Two years ago, Ohio won a first round game against Georgetown, and their opening game against Michigan seems quite similar. Guard DJ Cooper has star potential, but his scoring ability is highly eratic. When he's on, Ohio can be extremely dangeorus.

4 #11 NC State

Appropriately seeded in the 11 range, NC St takes on San Diego St to start things off. According to KenPom.com and other similar computer ratings, NC State is actually ranked higher than the Aztecs. In a sense, the ratings suggest this is really a battle between two 11 seeds, exemplified by the game's 1 point spread. Lurking beyond San Diego St is Georgetown, arguably the weakest of the 3 seeds.

3 #14 Belmont

Many thought Belmont had an outside shot at the Top 25 this year, but they lost a couple close games early before finding their groove late in the season. The A-Sun champs are feared due to their highly efficient offense. Georgetown rarely loses to lesser teams, but their zone could play into Belmont's hands. The winner of this game faces San Diego St or NC State.. Las Vegas could easily favor Belmont against either of those two.

2 #13 Davidson

Davidson faces West #4 seed Louisville to open things up. Louisville used stifling defense to win the Big East tournament, but yet somehow they seem vulnerable. The Cardinals tend to play a lot of close games, and although they tend to win those game, it always keeps the door open for a potential upset. If Davidson manages to squeeze by, they'd face the winner of Long Beach St and New Mexico.

1 #14 Saint Bonaventure

The Bonnies, led by star Andrew Nicholson, face East Region #3 FSU to start things off. Despite winning the ACC title, FSU has shown a willingness to play down to opponents, and Leonard Hamilton teams have lost in the first round two of the last three years. A potential second round matchup with either Cincinnati or Texas looms, but neither of those teams strike fear into anybody.

More Bracket Tips. Plus Top 10 Potential First Round Upsets