Northern Iowa

Friday Tournament Predictions: Horizon, OVC, MVC, WCC

Greg Mengelt — Fri, 02 Mar 2012 07:55:14 -0800

Our g ame prediction guru Greg Mengelt has been on fire this year. He'll be picking every conference tournament game over the next 2 weeks. Read more about Championship Week at CollegeHoops.net.

ATLANTIC SUN SEMIFINALS: AT MACON, GA.

Belmont (25-7, 16-2) vs. East Tennessee State (17-13, 10-8)

Tipoff: 6 p.m. TV: Comcast Sports. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 23 – Belmont 82-70; Feb. 18 – Belmont 80-58. RPI: Belmont 63, East Tennessee State 180. Analysis: Belmont beat the Buccaneers by a combined 34 points in two meetings this year. Can’t find a reason why the Bruins won’t blow them out again. Line: Belmont -12. Pick: Belmont 88, East Tennessee State 66.

Mercer (22-10, 13-5) vs. Florida Gulf Coast (14-16, 8-10)

Tipoff: Approx. 8:30 p.m. TV: Comcast Sports. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 2 – Mercer 76-54; Feb. 20 – Mercer 75-66. RPI: Mercer 126, Florida Gulf Coast 238. Analysis: Mercer looked better in its win over Lipscomb, but the Bears probably aren’t playing well enough yet to take them against the spread. Line: Mercer -9.5. Pick: Mercer 71, Florida Gulf Coast 67.

HORIZON LEAGUE QUARETRFINALS: AT VALPARAISO, IND.

(3) Detroit (19-13, 11-7) vs. (6) Youngstown State (16-14, 10-8)

Tipoff: 6 p.m. TV: Horizon League Network/ESPN3. Regular-season meetings: Dec. 1 – Youngstown 64-61*; Feb. 25 – Detroit 76-74*. RPI: Detroit 158, Youngstown State 166. Analysis: Detroit’s underachieving roller coaster season comes to an end. Line: Detroit -6. Pick: Youngstown State 68, Detroit 65.

(4) Milwaukee (20-12, 11-7) vs. (5) Butler (19-13, 11-7)

Tipoff: Approx. 8:30 p.m. TV: Horizon League Network/ESPN3. Regular-season meetings: Dec. 31 – Butler 54-50; Jan. 26 – Milwaukee 53-42. RPI: Milwaukee 124, Butler 112. Analysis: The Butler magic lives on – for one more day. Line: Butler -1. Pick: Butler 66, Milwaukee 61.

MISSOURI VALLEY QUARTERFINALS: AT ST. LOUIS

(1) Wichita State (26-4, 16-2) vs. (8) Indiana State (17-13, 8-10)

Tipoff: 1 p.m. TV: MVC TV. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 15 – Wichita State 75-65*; Feb. 4 – Wichita State 71-66. RPI: Wichita State 12, Indiana State 130. Analysis: This isn’t a typical 1/8 matchup with the Sycamores finishing a game behind third place. Indiana State is closer to the team that won last year’s tournament than to the one that struggled during the middle of this season. Line: Wichita St -10. Pick: Wichita State 70, Indiana State 62.

(4) Illinois State (18-12, 9-9) vs. (5) Northern Iowa (19-12, 9-9)

Tipoff: Approx. 3:30 p.m. TV: MVC TV. Regular-season meetings: Dec. 29 – Illinois State 65-61; Feb. 11 – Northern Iowa 78-63. RPI: Illinois State 125, Northern Iowa 62. Analysis: This game could go either way, so take the team with more post-season experience. Line: Northern Iowa -2. Line: Northern Iowa -2. Pick: Northern Iowa 70, Illinois State 67.

(2) Creighton (25-5, 14-4) vs. (7) Drake (16-14, 9-9)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. TV: MVC TV. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 3 – Creighton 76-59; Jan. 25 – Creighton 77-69. RPI: Creighton 25, Drake 127. Analysis: Except for a late push against Long Beach State, the Blue Jays just aren’t playing as well as they were earlier this season. It would be tough to take them by more than a handful of points. Line: Creighton -8. Pick: Creighton 69, Drake 65.

(3) Evansville (15-14, 9-9) vs. (6) Missouri State (16-15, 9-9)

Tipoff: Approx. 9:30 p.m. TV: MVC TV. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 15 – Evansville 87-82 (OT)*; Feb. 25 – Evansville 75-70 (OT). RPI: Evansville 138, Missouri State 108. Analysis: Missouri State senior Kyle Weems will find a way to shine in his final week, and the Bear defense will clamp down on Ace star Colt Ryan. Line: Missouri State -2. Pick: Missouri State 77, Evansville 70.

OHIO VALLEY SEMIFINALS: AT NASHVILLE

(1) Murray State (28-1, 15-1) vs. (4) Tennessee Tech (19-12, 9-7)

Tipoff: 6 p.m. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 14 – Murray State 82-74; Feb. 25 – Murray State 69-64*. RPI: Murray State 31, Tennessee Tech 151. Analysis: Tennessee Tech found a way to keep both regular-season meetings close, and Kevin Murphy and the Eagles will push the Racers again. Line: Murray St -8. Pick: Murray State 70, Tennessee Tech 64.

(2) Tennessee State (19-11, 11-5) vs. (3) Morehead State (18-14, 10-6)

Tipoff: Approx. 8 p.m. TV: ESPN3. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 11 – Tennessee State 77-72. RPI: Tennessee State 131, Morehead State 173. Analysis: With an extra day of rest, Tennessee State will pull away from the Eagles early in the second half. Line: Tennessee St -4. Pick: Tennessee State 81, Morehead State 69.

WCC QUARTERFINALS: AT LAS VEGAS

(4) Loyola Marymount (19-11, 11-5) vs. (5) San Francisco (19-12, 8-8)

Tipoff: 9 p.m. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Dec. 31 – Loyola Marymount 77-76 (OT)*; Feb. 4 – Loyola Marymount 90-88. RPI: Loyola Marymount 119, San Francisco 147. Analysis: Vegas is begging you to take LMU, don't fall for it. Line: San Francisco -1.5. Pick: Loyola Marymount 78, San Francisco 75.

(3) BYU (24-7, 12-4) vs. (6) San Diego (12-17, 9-7)

Tipoff: Approx. 11 p.m. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Dec. 31 – BYU 88-52; Jan. 16 – BYU 82-63*. RPI: BYU 50, San Diego 193. Analysis: BYU will control the boards and its defensive end en route to an easy win. Line: BYU -13. Pick: BYU 78, San Diego 55.

*Road win

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 95-62-2

Friday's Conference Tournament Primer

Raphielle Johnson — Fri, 02 Mar 2012 07:37:47 -0800

Friday will be a busy night in regards to conference tournaments, with eight leagues paring down their respective fields. But there's no team on the slate more in need of a win than BYU, who takes on six-seed San Diego in the second quarterfinal of the night. The uncertainty that surrounds forward Noah Hartsock's knee injury doesn't help matters for Dave Rose's team, but whether or not he's able to play the Cougars need to avoid a misstep agains the Toreros.

Johnny Dee went off on Pepperdine on Thursday night, scoring 30 points to lead San Diego to the 76-54 win. As a team Bill Grier's squad shot 56.3% from the field against the Waves while turning the ball over just nine times. The Toreros will have to duplicate that performance if they're to have a shot at knocking off a BYU team that beat them twice during the regular season, and neither meeting was all that close.

BYU won 88-52 in Provo and 82-63 in San Diego, with the meeting at Jenny Craig Pavilion being the more recent of the two. BYU dominated the battle on the glass, out-rebounding USB 46-28 with an offensive rebounding percentage of 41.7%. And in that contest BYU didn't get much from Hartsock, but the triumvirate of Charles Abouo, Brandon Davies and Brock Zylstra grabbed a combined 26 rebounds. Six of Davies' 12 rebounds were of the offensive variety, and if that happens again the third meeting will end up like the first two.

Two things will need to happen if the Toreros are to knock off BYU: they're all going to need to step up on the boards to help out Dennis Kramer and Chris Manresa on the glass, and freshman point guard Chris Anderson will have to "win" the matchup with BYU's Matt Carlino. Anderson's gotten better as the season's worn on, which is something a team would hope for from its freshmen.

BYU still may have some work to do in regards to reaching the NCAA tournament, and to do so would at the very least require a third meeting with Gonzaga, which is what awaits the winner. Dave Rose's team would be pushing their luck if they weren't the Bulldogs' opponent on Saturday night.

In the first quarterfinal in Las Vegas the four and five seeds meet, with the winner becoming a serious threat to snatch the WCC's automatic bid. Max Good's team was 7-1 in conference games away from home, and with Anthony Ireland and Drew Viney the Lions have two of the league's better players.

But it isn't as if Rex Walters' Dons lack talent, as they're led by Angelo Caloiaro and Perris Blackwell. Four Dons average double figures, and these two teams have played two high-scoring thrilled with LMU winning both. The winner gets Saint Mary's, and there's no reason why neither can knock off the Gaels and advance to the title game as well.

WCC - Quarterfinals
#4 Loyola Marymount vs. #5 San Francisco, 9:00 p.m. (BYUtv)
#3 BYU vs. #6 San Diego, 11:00 p.m. (BYUtv)

Atlantic Sun - Semifinals
#1 Belmont vs. #4 ETSU, 6:00 p.m. (ASun TV/CSS)
#2 Mercer vs. #6 FGCU, 8:30 p.m. (ASun TV/CSS)

Three of the top four seeds made it through to the semifinals of the A-Sun tournament, but losing five of their last six to end the regular season didn't stop six-seed FGCU from knocking off USC Upstate 71-61. Chris Varidel led five Eagles in double figures with 14 points off the bench, and FGCU managed to score 50 points in the second half. They'll take on host Mercer, who swept the regular season series and limited the Eagles to 37% shooting in the second meeting. Langston Hall scored a game-high 20 points in the 75-66 Mercer victory at FGCU, and three others scored ten apiece for the Bears.

In the other semifinal regular season champion Belmont takes on ETSU, a team the Bruins beat twice by double digits this year. Kerron Johnson has played well on the perimeter and big men Mick Hedgepeth and Scott Saunders make up a formidable tandem in the paint for Rick Byrd's squad. The Bucs will need big games from Isiah Brown and Adam Sollazzo if they're to knock off the defending champs but it can be done.

Colonial - First Round
#8 James Madison vs. #9 UNCW, Noon
#5 Delaware vs. #12 Towson, 2:30 p.m.
#7 Northeastern vs. #10 William & Mary, 6 p.m.
#6 Georgia State vs. #11 Hosftra, 8:30 p.m.

First Round Preview by Robert Canady

Horizon - Quarterfinals
#6 Youngstown State vs. #3 Detroit, 6 p.m. (Horizon League Network/ESPN3)
#5 Butler vs. #4 Milwaukee, 8:30 p.m. (Horizon League Network/ESPN3)

Play resumes in the Horizon League with a pair of games to be played at Valparaiso, with the winners moving on to face the regular season champion Crusaders and two-seed Cleveland State. Butler will be the focus of many given their recent tournament history, but they've got a tough matchup on their hands in the form of the Milwaukee Panthers. These two teams split a pair of physical contests during the regular season with the home team winning both and neither scoring more than 54 points in either game. Milwaukee limited Butler to 20% shooting in the second half of their 53-42 win on January 26th, but the improved play of Andrew Smith inside is something to keep an eye on.

Milwaukee has three starters averaging between 10.7 and 11.1 points per game with Tony Meier leading the way while Smith is the lone Butler player averaging double figures. The first quarterfinal should be interesing given the Penguins' reliance on the three-point shot, and while Detroit didn't make good on the many predictions that they would win the league there's still more than enough talent needed to make a run at the league's automatic bid. Youngstown State has four players averaging at least 10.2 points per game with Kendrick Perry leading the way at 16.8. Detroit won 76-74 in the regular season finale for both last Saturday.

Metro Atlantic - First Round
#8 Marist vs. #9 Saint Peter's, 7:30 p.m.
#7 Niagara vs. #10 Canisius, 9:30 p.m.

"MAACachusetts" (their word, not mine) gets underway with a pair of games in Springfield, and while it will be interesting to see how the tournament fares in a truly neutral environment from an attendance standpoint there will be good basketball to watch as well. Rivals Niagara and Canisius meet in the second half of the doubleheader, and with the Golden Griffins lacking the depth needed to be successful throughout the regular season maybe they can salvage something in Springfield. But they're going to have their hands full with NU freshmen Juan'ya Green and Antoine Mason, both of whom made the All-Rookie Team with Green winning Rookie of the Year. In the other first round matchup Marist, who has a very good freshman of their own in Chavaughn Lewis, takes on a young Saint Peter's squad that took their share of defeats as well. The Red Foxes swept the season series, winning the most recent meeting by 19 in Poughkeepsie on February 9th.

Missouri Valley - Quarterfinals
#1 Wichita State vs. #8 Indiana State, 1:00 p.m. (MVC TV)
#4 Illinois State vs. #5 Northern Iowa, 3:30 p.m. (MVC TV)
#2 Creighton vs. #7 Drake, 7:00 p.m. (MVC TV)
#3 Evansville #6 Missouri State, 9:30 p.m. (MVC TV)

"Arch Madness" moves on to the quarterfinals, and while the top two seeds can be knocked off the 4/5 and 3/6 games will likely offer more intrigue. The four teams in those two contests all finished 9-9 in MVC play, and the battle between Evansville and Missouri State features two of the Valley's best players in UE's Colt Ryan and Missouri State's Kyle Weems. Ryan averages 20.5 points per game while the versatile Weems leads the Bears in both scoring and rebounding, but the Purple Aces won both regular season meetings by five points. As for the Panthers and Redbirds, they split their two meetings with the home team winning both.

Ben Jacobson's Panthers can defend with anyone and they limited Illinois State to an average of 64 points per game in the two contests. UNI knocked down 12 of 21 three-pointers in their 78-63 win over the Redbirds on February 11th, with Johnny Moran knocking down four of his six attempts. ISU has a very good interior player in Jackie Carmichael, and he can be a problem for the Panthers in the paint if their bigs don't limit the number of quality touches he gets.

Ohio Valley - Semifinals
#1 Murray State vs. #4 Tennessee Tech, 6:00 p.m. (ESPNU)
#2 Tennessee State vs. #3 Morehead State, 8:00 p.m. (ESPN3)

The top two teams in the OVC finally take the court with just one win separating them from the title game. All eyes from a national standpoint will be on the Racers, who have done enough to merit an at-large bid should they need one. Isaiah Canaan and Donte Pool have been the best guard tandem in the OVC this season but they're in for a challenge as Kevin Murphy and Jud Dillard can light it up as well. Murphy and Dillard average a combined 38.7 points per game for the Golden Eagles, who lost both regular season meetings with the Racers.

The second semifinal features the lone team to have beaten Murray State in league play as Tennessee State takes on three-seed Morehead State. The Tigers and Eagles played just once in the regular season, with Tennessee State knocking down 13 three-pointers in their 77-72 victory. Robert Covington has been outstanding for Tennessee State this season and Morehead State had no answer for him as he scored 30 points and grabbed eight rebounds in the January meeting. Ty Proffitt runs the show for Morehead State but he has to keep the turnovers down (five in the regular season meeting) if the Eagles are to win.

Southern - First Round
#4S College of Charleston vs. #5N Appalachian State, 11:30 a.m.
#3N Western Carolina vs. #6S The Citadel, 2:00 p.m.
#4N Samford vs. #5S Furman, 6:00 p.m.
#3S Georgia Southern vs. #6N Chattanooga, 8:30 p.m.

The SoCon tournament tips off with four games, beginning with Charleston taking on Appalachian State. The South Division has been stronger for quite some time and that was no different this season, so the expectation would be that teams such as the Cougars and Georgia Southern will take care of business and advance to the quarterfinals. Samford and Furman met just 13 days ago with the Bulldogs winning 55-49, limiting the Paladins to 34.6% shooting from the field. One issue for Furman was that they resorted to firing away from beyond the arc, and when you shoot 6-for-29 as they did that's a problem. Drew Windler led Samford with 18 points off the bench in that meeting.

Conference play can be an opportunity for teams who have disappointed to make one final run, and that's what John Shulman's Chattanooga Mocs should use as motivation. The Mocs were the pick of many to at least win the North Division and yet they finished last in the division. Redeeming themselves will be tough however as Georgia Southern went 12-6 in conference play. Charlton Young's Eagles dropped their final two regular season games (Charleston and Davidson) and the beat the Mocs by just three points (75-72) in their lone meeting, so maybe Chattanooga can pull off the upset.

Cinderella Madness: '10 Northern Iowa vs '11 VCU

Raphielle Johnson — Mon, 27 Feb 2012 16:13:36 -0800

WhatIfSports.com and CollegeHoops.net have partnered up to bring you Cinderella Madness 2012. This college basketball simulation tournament features 16 of the most memorable Cinderella stories from the past eight seasons. We invited teams outside the BCS conferences, seeded 7th or lower that advanced to the Sweet 16 or beyond in their bracket to participate. Teams were seeded 1 through 16 and then simulated using WhatIfSports.com's award-winning college basketball simulation engine. Each match was "played" 501 times.

2010-11 VCU vs 2009-10 Northern Iowa

2010-11 VCU: Shaka Smart's team was a veteran group led by Joey Rodriguez at the point and Jamie Skeen inside (he could also step out and knock down perimeter shots). Nine players played at least ten minutes per game for VCU, and their frenetic system would wreak havoc on teams not used to facing it. The Rams were just 12-6 in CAA play (good for 4th) but their SOS of 61 (RPI: 31) helped get them into the field. The victims: USC, Georgetown, Purdue (in what was likely the best offensive performance of the tournament by any team), Florida State and Kansas. VCU lost to Butler in the Final Four.

2009-10 Northern Iowa: While Ben Jacobson's Panthers will always be remember by the casual fan for Ali Farokhmanesh's shot to seal the second round win over Kansas, it must be known that UNI was an outstanding basketball team as well. The Panthers won the MVC by three games and went 6-3 against RPI Top 50 teams, meaning that this seed is likely an injustice. They weren't a high-powered offensive team but UNI had options, from Adam Koch and Jordan Eglseder to Farokhmanesh and Kwadzo Ahelegbe. The Panthers won all three of their MVC tournament games by 15 points or more, allowing an average of 44.0 points per game. They went on to beat UNLV and Kansas by a combined five points before falling to Michigan State in the Sweet 16.

Game Recap: VCU 67 - Northern Iowa 63 (Boxscore)

VCU utilized superior depth and bench play throughout their 2011 run to the Final Four. In a 94-76 drubbing of Purdue, for example, the VCU bench outscored their opponent 29 to five. The formula for success was replicated as the Rams squared off with their first-round adversary, the Northern Iowa Panthers.

VCU found itself in a 15-11 hole midway through the first half, but Skeen and super sub Brandon Rozzell combined to score 15 of the team's next 19 points and VCU enjoyed a 30-27 advantage at the break.

After pacing the Panthers with eight points in the early going, Farokhmanesh hit a scoring drought that lasted 28 minutes. Right on cue though, he connected on two three-pointers in just over one minute to erase a six-point Panthers deficit and tie the game at 61-61 with 2:44 remaining.

An exchange of baskets set up VCU's Rozzell for the game-winner, a 15-foot jumper with one second left. The Rams advanced with the 65-63 win.

Rozzell accounted for 19 of VCU's 23 bench points and Skeen added 14 points, 10 rebounds and six blocks. Farokhmanesh's 14 points (4-6 3FG) led Northern Iowa.

Player of the game: Brandon Rozzell (19 points, 2 steals)

Winning Percentage of 501 Simulations: '11 VCU 64.7% - '10 Northern Iowa 35.3%

More Cinderalla Madness with the complete bracket.

NIT-Ology: Oklahoma St and Northern Iowa In

Shawn Siegel — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 09:03:41 -0800

The latest 2012 NIT-Ology field as things stand after Tuesday's action. The field below is not who I think deserves to be in, but simply a prediction of what the committee would do as things stand today. NIT-Ology is released following CollegeHoops.net's weekly NCAA Tournament Bracketology update.

Notes on the NIT Field and NIT Bracketology: The NIT field is compose of 32 teams, including regular season champions that do not win their conference tournament. There is no way to predict how many regular season champions will lose their tournaments or which teams that might be. Thus, all that is listed here is the 24 most likely "at-large" teams.

For a statistical breakdown of NCAA Bubble teams, check out the weekly Bubble Watch.

Arrows indicate teams that made a major move since the previous week. New teams in green. Teams that are currently winning their conference tournament (and thus projected to be in the NCAA field) are not included.

NCAA BUBBLE: Last 5 In

BYU

Cincinnati

Xavier

Ole Miss

Colorado St (complete NCAA projection)

ONE

Texas

Seton Hall

Arkansas

Miami

TWO

Arizona

Wyoming

Pittsburgh

Northwestern

THREE

Marshall

UCF

UMASS

Saint Joseph's

FOUR

Colorado

La Salle

Maryland

VCU

FIVE

Ohio

Northern Iowa

New Mexico St

George Mason

SIX

South Florida

Missouri St

Stanford

Oklahoma St

SEVEN

?

?

?

?

EIGHT

?

?

?

?

First Out: Illinois State, South Dakota St, Oregon, Iowa, Dayton

Dropped Out of NIT Field: Oklahoma, Villanova, Virginia Tech

Notes: Seton Hall and Dayton fell out of the NCAA field. The Pirates remain on the NCAA bubble, while Dayton falls all the way to the NIT bubble. Drexel passed George Mason for the CAA lead, and moved into the NCAA field.

#6 Baylor vs. #10 Kansas: Wednesday's Preview

Raphielle Johnson — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 20:39:45 -0800

To say that this is a big week for Scott Drew's Baylor (21-2, 8-2) Bears would be a major understatement, and the same goes for the Kansas (18-5, 8-2) Jayhawks in this pivotal Big 12 battle. These are two of the three teams tied for first in the loss column in the conference, and with Baylor visiting 9-2 Missouri on Saturday afternoon we should have a solid grasp on who will be in the driver's seat down the stretch.

Kansas won the first meeting 92-74 in Lawrence, pulling away during the latter stages of the first half thanks in large part to the play of forward Thomas Robinson and point guard Tyshawn Taylor. Robinson (18.0 ppg, 12.0 rpg) posted his customary double-double on a night that saw the Bears punished for their inability to box out. Baylor only plays their troublesome 2-3 zone about half the time, so this was an issue more about fundamentals than their system having them out of place.

On the season Baylor's opponents average 12.4 offensive rebounds per game, and while the offensive rebounding percentage (32.8%) isn't terrible it's not what you'd expect of a team with five players 6'9" or taller. Three of those players are averaging double figures in scoring with sophomore Perry Jones III (14.8 ppg, 7.9 rpg) leading the way. Freshman Quincy Miller (12.4 ppg, 5.3 rpg) is arguably their most versatile front court player while senior Quincy Acy (12.4 ppg, 7.0 rpg) provides the heart, as he's made some big plays in "winning time" for the Bears.

The key for Kansas in the rematch will be to get a similar effort from Jeff Withey (8.1 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 3.0 bpg) as they received in the first contest. The San Diego native was two blocks away from a triple-double, a fact that left many observers stunned by the end of the night. This is a better matchup for Withey than Missouri, whose quickness rendered him nearly non-existent on Saturday night. While both teams are good on the offensive glass Kansas has been better keeping opponents at bay on the other end (28.1% OR), and doing so once again will be important if they're to win in Waco.

The point guard matchup is an intriguing one due to the fact that both Taylor (16.9 ppg, 5.2 apg) and Baylor's Pierre Jackson (12.7 ppg, 5.9 apg) are both two of the best in the Big 12, but they also have moments when their respective coaches wonder what's going on. Turnovers will be key for both teams, especially those of the "live-ball" variety as both teams have some of the nation's best finishers.

Jackson won't start the game (A.J. Walton does) but more often than not he finishes it, and shooting free throws at an 84% clip should leave Baylor fans at ease when he's in control late. Baylor also calls on Brady Heslip (9.6 ppg, 43.9% 3PT) on the perimeter while Kansas will counter with Elijah Johnson (9.2 ppg, 3.6 apg) and Travis Releford (9.6 ppg, 4.2 rpg). There isn't much separating the two teams when looking at turnover percentage on either side of the ball, and despite having a slightly higher percentage (21.5%) it's Baylor who's been the more efficient team offensively.

Did Allen Fieldhouse have that much of an impact on Baylor in the first meeting, or was Kansas simply that much better? The rematch won't provide a definitive answer to that question (which is probably an unfair one to ask anyway), but it will give an answer to the question of which team is better equipped to win the Big 12.

Two of the sport's biggest rivalries will also be on display as #2 Syracuse hosts #11 Georgetown and #9 Duke makes the short trek to Chapel Hill to take on #5 North Carolina. The Orange had it rolling on Saturday afternoon as they pasted an undermanned St. John's team and the return of Fab Melo did play a role in that. But the Hoyas also have a much-improved center in senior Henry Sims, and a perimeter led by Jason Clark and Hollis Thompson should be good about finding quality shots within Syracuse's 2-3 zone. Georgetown has to also find a way to limit the impact that reserves such as Dion Waiters and C.J. Fair have on the game, meaning that they have to keep the game from turning into an odd-man track meet.

As for Duke, they've got a tough assignment as they look to not only bounce back from a disappointing loss to Miami but also keep from falling two games behind UNC and Florida State in the ACC. The Blue Devils had no answer for Miami's Reggie Johnson (Kenny Kadji also played well), and while neither John Henson nor Tyler Zeller is as wide as Johnson they're both more than a handful for opponents. Duke has to get good decision-making from their guards (Austin Rivers, Seth Curry and Quinn Cook being three) at the Dean Dome and some good shooting from Andre Dawkins wouldn't hurt either.

Marshall, who at one point earlier this season looked to be a lock to reach the Field of 68, needs to get rolling in a hurry if they're to get back into the discussion. DeAndre Kane and company visit a UCF team led by forward Keith Clanton in what should be a good Conference USA matchup. Wichita State can take sole possession of first place in the Missouri Valley with a win over Northern Iowa ahead of their trip to Omaha on Saturday, and the contest between borough rivals LIU Brooklyn and St. Francis (NY) has been made even better by the fact that they're playing at Madison Square Garden and Glen Braica's done an outstanding job with the Terriers as well.

Top 25 Games
7:00 PM (11) Georgetown at (2) Syracuse (ESPN)
9:00 PM (9) Duke at (5) North Carolina (ESPN)
7:00 PM (10) Kansas at (6) Baylor (ESPN2)
6:30 PM Penn State at (12) Michigan State (BTN)
7:00 PM (17) Florida State at Boston College (ESPN3)
7:30 PM Wake Forest at (20) Virginia (ESPN3)
8:30 PM (25) Michigan at Nebraska (BTN)

NCAA Division I Games
6:00 PM George Washington at Temple
7:00 PM UNC Wilmington at Delaware
7:00 PM Pittsburgh at South Florida (ESPN3)
7:00 PM Wagner at Mount St. Mary's
7:00 PM Memphis at East Carolina
7:00 PM Monmouth at Fairleigh Dickinson (ESPN3)
7:00 PM Drexel at James Madison
7:00 PM La Salle at Richmond
7:00 PM Lafayette at Army
7:00 PM Bowling Green at Ball State
7:00 PM Marshall at UCF
7:00 PM Buffalo at Central Michigan
7:00 PM Bucknell at Colgate
7:00 PM Kent State at Eastern Michigan
7:00 PM Hofstra at George Mason (ESPN3)
7:00 PM Northeastern at Georgia State
7:00 PM Jacksonville State at Morehead State
7:00 PM Holy Cross at Navy
7:00 PM Central Connecticut State at Quinnipiac
7:00 PM Bryant University at Sacred Heart
7:00 PM Robert Morris at St. Francis (PA)
7:00 PM Cincinnati at St. John's
7:00 PM Ohio at Toledo
7:00 PM Akron at Western Michigan (ESPN3)
7:00 PM Old Dominion at William & Mary
7:00 PM Rhode Island at Xavier (CBS SN)
7:05 PM Houston Baptist at Bethune-Cookman
7:30 PM St. Bonaventure at Massachusetts
7:30 PM Towson at VCU (ESPN3)
8:00 PM Southern Miss at UAB
8:00 PM Arkansas at Georgia (ESPN3)
8:00 PM Indiana State at Bradley
8:00 PM Missouri State at Southern Illinois (ESPN3)
8:00 PM Rice at Houston
8:00 PM Cal State Bakersfield at Texas-Pan American
8:00 PM Central Arkansas at Texas State
8:00 PM Northwestern State at Lamar
8:00 PM Miami (OH) at Northern Illinois
8:00 PM Texas-Arlington at Sam Houston State (ESPN3)
8:00 PM TCU at Southern Methodist
8:00 PM Nicholls State at Stephen F. Austin
8:00 PM South Carolina at Tennessee (ESPN3)
8:00 PM Southeastern Louisiana at UTSA
8:00 PM Northern Iowa at Wichita State (ESPN3)
8:05 PM Drake at Illinois State
8:30 PM Saint Louis at Saint Joseph's
9:00 PM Seton Hall at Rutgers (ESPN2)
9:00 PM LSU at Vanderbilt (ESPN3)
9:00 PM Notre Dame at West Virginia
9:00 PM LIU Brooklyn at St. Francis (NY)
9:00 PM Tulsa at UTEP (CBS SN)

New Mexico vs. #16 San Diego State: Wednesday's Preview

Raphielle Johnson — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 09:29:11 -0800

It looks as if the schedule-makers in the Mountain West wanted to spark some serious national conversation about the conference from the beginning of league play because the first full week of play will feature all three expected contenders facing each other. Wednesday's slate features #16 San Diego State (15-2, 1-0), fresh off of their two-point win over UNLV, visiting The Pit to take on a New Mexico (15-2, 1-0) squad that's quietly won thirteen in a row. The Lobos, preseason favorites to win the Mountain West, feature one of the best power forwards in senior Drew Gordon (12.4 ppg, 10.5 rpg) while guards Tony Snell (13.4 ppg, 3.2 rpg) and Kendall Williams (11.7 ppg, 4.4 apg, 3.6 rpg) have also played well during their current run.

Before scoring eight points in the Lobos' win at Wyoming on Saturday, Gordon reached double figures in eight straight games to rebound from an inconsistent start to the season. A key for SDSU will be to keep him off the offensive glass, something they've done a good job of this season as opponents rebound just 26.9% of their missed shots. If anything offensive rebounding will be a critical factor in the outcome as New Mexico grabs 36.4% of their misses and SDSU is a solid offensive rebounding team as well (33.4% OR percentage). The Aztecs don't have the marquee bodies in the frontcourt that they had last season but Steve Fisher's guys still attack the boards, and one of their best offensive rebounders is also an important scorer on the perimeter.

Jamaal Franklin (15.7 ppg, 6.5 rpg) grabs 1.6 offensive rebounds per game, a number that's third on the team to Deshawn Stephens (2.1) and Garrett Green (2.0). Franklin knocked down the game-winner on Saturday and scored 24 points while also grabbing ten rebounds, with the boards marking the third time in the last four games in which he's finished with ten caroms. If anything the Aztecs have plenty of depth on the perimeter as Chase Tapley (16.9 ppg, 4.3 rpg), Xavier Thames (11.0 ppg, 5.4 apg) and James Rahon (10.9 ppg, 2.9 rpg) all have the ability to hurt teams offensively. Rahon scored 22 points in the win over UNLV and seemed to have an answer for just about every UNLV charge.

Williams is one of the guards that Steve Alford will rely upon tonight, and he should be a solid bet to perform well coming off of back-to-back double-figure scoring performances for the first time since the final two games of the 76 Classic in late November. The one issue for Williams has been the drop in his percentages from last season, as his three-point percentage is down about ten points and the field goal percentage down six. But in the last three games Williams has made seven of eleven from distance, and the hope for UNM fans is that he'll continue on that path.

As for Snell (13.4 ppg, 3.2 rpg) he's been New Mexico's most consistent performer this season, increasing his scoring by nine points from last season and his percentages have made a signficant jump as well. Hugh Greenwood has missed the last two games with a sprained ankle, which has meant more time for Williams at the points and more minutes for Jamal Fenton (7.4 ppg, 2.6 apg) off the bench. Williams turned the ball over five times on Saturday but as a team the Lobos finished with 15 turnovers (they average 14 per game), so there wasn't a huge shift in that regard.

In addition to the rebounding three-point shooting is an area to keep an eye on with the Lobos scoring 30% of their points from beyond the arc. As a team New Mexico shoots 40.2% from deep, and while SDSU isn't a bad shooting team (35.2% 3PT) they rely more on getting to the basket. The Pit is one of the toughest environments in college basketball for a road team, and the Aztecs needed some big plays from D.J. Gay to win last year's meeting. He's no longer on Montezuma Mesa, meaning that a Franklin, Rahon or Tapley (Thames too) would likely have to be the guy. But as we've seen thus far, they're more than capable of doing so.

The Missouri Valley has a pair of marquee matchups on the slate with Creighton visiting Missouri State and Northern Iowa hosting Wichita State. Kyle Weems and the Bears handed Creighton its only league loss in Omaha earlier this month, and a sweep of the season series would go a long way in terms of bolstering a resume that's taken some hits as they've lost three of their last four.

As for UNI they sit at 3-4 in MVC play and their inconsistent offensive production is a big reason why. Do the Panthers have an answer for Garrett Stutz inside? He's raised his scoring nearly five points from last season and is grabbing nearly four more rebounds per game as well. WSU is 5-0 in road games this season and Stutz is averaging 16.4 points and 9.0 rebounds in those contests.

There's also a battle of Big Five teams as La Salle visits Temple and the perimeter matchups should be fun to watch. Dr. John Giannini's team has played both more consistently and unselfishly this season than last and guards Tyreek Duren and Ramon Galloway are two reasons why. Temple will counter with Ramone Moore, Khalif Wyatt and Juan Fernandez, but a player like Rahlir Hollis-Jefferson could factor into the outcome as the Explorers aren't the biggest team inside.

Also in the Atlantic 10 Saint Joseph's visits Xavier and UMass visits Duquesne in what should be two entertaining matchups. Cincinnati visits Connecticut in need of another resume-building win; keep in mind they've got that home loss to Presbyterian to account for and with the Huskies unlikely to have Ryan Boatright again the Bearcats will have an even better chance of winning. And keep an eye on two games involving Conference USA teams, with Memphis visiting UCF and Marshall stepping outside of the league to play West Virginia. Marquee games? Probably not, but there's more than enough to keep your attention tonight.

Top 25 Games
7:00 PM (10) Murray State at Morehead State (ESPN3)
7:00 PM Cincinnati at (11) Connecticut
7:00 PM (13) Indiana at Nebraska (BTN)
9:00 PM (15) Mississippi State at Ole Miss (ESPN3)
10:00 PM (16) San Diego State at New Mexico (CBS SN)
8:05 PM (18) Creighton at Missouri State
10:30 PM TCU at (20) UNLV(The Mtn.)

NCAA Division I Games
7:00 PM Richmond at George Washington
7:00 PM St. John's at USF (ESPN3)
7:00 PM Georgia State at Northeastern
7:00 PM Old Dominion at Towson
7:00 PM Bowling Green at Miami (OH)
7:00 PM Kent State at Ohio (ESPN3)
7:00 PM La Salle at Temple
7:00 PM Seton Hall at Villanova (ESPNU)
7:00 PM Colgate at Army
7:00 PM James Madison at UNC Wilmington
7:00 PM Akron at Buffalo
7:00 PM Ball State at Central Michigan
7:00 PM Massachusetts at Duquesne
7:00 PM Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan
7:00 PM Rhode Island at Fordham
7:00 PM Delaware at George Mason (ESPN3)
7:00 PM Drexel at Hofstra
7:00 PM Bucknell at Lehigh
7:00 PM Clemson at Miami (FL) (ESPN3)
7:00 PM American at Navy
7:00 PM Northern Illinois at Toledo
7:00 PM Saint Joseph's at Xavier
7:30 PM Marshall at West Virginia (ESPN3)
7:30 PM Kennesaw State at Charlotte
8:00 PM Tennessee at Georgia (ESPN3)
8:00 PM Tulane at Tulsa
8:00 PM UAB at Rice
8:00 PM Texas-Arlington at Texas A&M-CC
8:00 PM Wyoming at Air Force (The Mtn.)
8:00 PM Nicholls State at Central Arkansas
8:00 PM Memphis at UCF
8:00 PM Indiana State at Illinois State (ESPN3)
8:00 PM Southeastern Louisiana at McNeese State
8:00 PM Wichita State at Northern Iowa (ESPN3)
8:00 PM Texas State at Sam Houston State
8:00 PM Houston at SMU
8:00 PM Northwestern State at UTSA
8:05 PM Drake at Southern Illinois
8:05 PM Bradley at Evansville
9:00 PM Oklahoma State at Iowa State
9:00 PM Northwestern at Wisconsin (BTN)
9:00 PM Texas at Kansas State
9:00 PM East Carolina at UTEP
10:00 PM Cal State San Marcos at Fresno State
10:05 PM UC Riverside at Cal State Fullerton

Tuesday Recap: Paul Leads Illinois Past Ohio State

Raphielle Johnson — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 23:41:56 -0800

The matchup between Ohio State and Illinois was anticipated by many for the individual matchup between the Buckeyes' Jared Sullinger and Illinois' Meyers Leonard. Then there was the ceremony honoring Lou Henson, the all-time winningest coach in Illinois history. But few people expected Brandon Paul to end up being the center of attention, which is exactly what happened in the Fighting Illini's 79-74 win at Assembly Hall.

Palu scored a career-high 43 points, making 11 of his 15 shots from the field (8-10 3PT) and 13 of 15 from the charity stripe to lead Bruce Weber's squad to the win. But it wasn't all about the points for Paul, as he contributed in other areas as well. Paul also led the team in rebounds (eight) and blocked shots (four), more than making up for his game-high seven turnovers. Wehn you've got it rolling like Paul did on this night, the mistakes tend to fade into the background.

"I was laughing a couple times. After the first couple threes, I just said I was going to keep shooting," remarked Paul. "That's the mindset that I've got to have."

Paul's offensive explosion was essentially the difference in the game as both teams finished with four starters reaching double figures and zero points from their respective benches. Deshaun Thomas (23 points, six rebounds) and Sullinger (21 points, five rebounds and three steals) led Ohio State offensively, but Sullinger was also their best three-point shooter as he made both of his attempts.

The rest of the team made just three of thirteen from beyond the arc and with Paul shooting the way he was, Thad Matta's team found itself in trouble throughout much of the second half. Shooting 60% from the field and 61% from three can cure a lot of ills, as it did for the Illini as they turned the ball over 18 times. It also didn't hurt Illinois to have a plus-7 advantage in points from the foul line (14-7), with Sullinger not attempting his lone free throws of the night until late in the game.

All things considered Leonard did a good job in his individual matchup with Sullinger, scoring 14 points and grabbing five rebounds in 38 minutes of action. But Tuesday night was all about the guard who got hot early and stayed so throughout. Even switching Aaron Craft, one of the best defenders in the country, onto Paul did the visitors from Columbus any good. Sometimes guys just have one of those nights, and that was exactly the case for Brandon Paul.

Other Notable Happenings

1. If you haven't given Baylor their due by now, this would be a good time to do so.
For whatever reason, Scott Drew's Baylor Bears haven't been discussed in the same realm as teams such as Syracuse, North Carolina, Kentucky and Ohio State despite owning some impressive wins to date. But after the Bears made the winning plays they needed to make late in their 75-73 win at #18 Kansas State, it's time for the nation to put the Bears in that company when discussing teams that can not only get to the Final Four but win the national title. Perry Jones III led four players in double figures with 17 points and eight rebounds while two other players (A.J. Walton and Quincy Miller) scored eight and nine points, respectively.

By the four minute mark of the second half five Baylor players had four fouls, but none fouled out and it was one of those players who stepped up big in crunch time. Quincy Acy, who played just 24 minutes due to foul trouble, scored a basket and then stole a pass on Kansas State's ensuing possession to give the Bears a 73-71 lead with 3:14 remaining. The Bears wouldn't trail again, and it was Acy's deflection of a pass in the final seconds that preserved the victory. Rodney McGruder led K-State with 30 points but their mistakes late opened the door for the Bears, and the visitors took advantage.

2. Providence honors the '87 Final Four team and blows out Louisville for their first league win.
It seems as if every time Rick Pitino brings a team to Providence his 1987 squad that reached the Final Four is being honored. After Tuesday night however, he may look to no longer be involved in such ceremonies at The Dunk. Louisville didn't look ready for a street fight from the start, and that's a bad way to enter a game when playing a team desperate for its first league win. Bryce Cotton and Kadeem Batts scored 27 points apiece as the Friars more than made up for the absence of Gerard Coleman (back injury), beating the Cardinals 90-59 to give Ed Cooley his first Big East victory.

Louisville couldn't turn over the Friars as point guard Vincent Council was the consummate floor general with 15 points, 14 assists and just two turnovers, and from there things really got out of hand for the visitors. It's been known that Peyton Siva and the rest of the Cardinals have a hard time scoring when they're unable to get out and run off of turnovers. And until that changes results like this remain a possibility as they encounter league opponents who can take care of the basketball. Hindsight is 20/20, but it looks as if those who felt that the Cardinals were overrated when they reached the Top 5 were ahead of the curve.

3. Northern Iowa forced Antoine Young to make plays, and he did as Creighton kept pace atop the MVC.
UNI needed a win in Omaha to remain within striking distance of the top of the Missouri Valley thanks to their losses to Illinois State and Evansville, with the latter coming at home. But due to two defensive moves the Panthers left town with a 2-3 record as they fell to the Bluejays 63-60. Ben Jacobson's squad essentially dared Creighton guard Antoine Young to make them pay offensively, and he did just that with a game-high 21 points. On the other hand Greg McDermott and his staff made the defensive move that may have won the game, placing more emphasis on limiting Marc Sonnen's perimeter looks.

Sonnen scored 15 points in the first half as he made all five of his three-point attempts. Sonnen finished the game with 15 points, and without his shooting the Panthers sputtered offensively. UNI shot 33.3% from the field and 28.6% from three in the second half, a far cry from their first half numbers of 42.3% and 66.7%. In addition to Young, Creighton received some big plays from Grant Gibbs (ten points) and Doug McDermott (14 points, eight rebounds) in addition to 11 rebounds from Gregory Echenique.

Quick Hitters

1. Playing their first game as a ranked team in 11 years, Seton Hall used a 17-1 second half run to put away DePaul 94-73. Fuquan Edwin scored a career-high 28 points to go along with nine rebounds, and point guard Jordan Theodore finished with 26 and 11 assists. Theodore's play this season has been outstanding, so much so that he has to be considered for Big East Player of the Year. Makes you wonder what the Cousy Award committee was thinking when they left Theodore off the list of 20 finalists for the award.

2. After winning consecutive conference road games at Wisconsin and Minnesota, Iowa has found out the hard way that they've still got some distance to travel before becoming a factor in the Big Ten. Michigan State whipped the Hawkeyes 95-61 in East Lansing, and in their last two games Iowa has lost by a combined 63 points.

3. Bernard James put forth an impressive performance for Florida State, scoring 18 points and grabbing 15 rebounds in the Seminoles' 63-59 win at Virginia Tech. James also blocked three shots and Ian Miller scored 15 off the bench as FSU picked up a much-needed win on the heels of their embarassing effort at Clemson.

4. An Atlantic 10 team to keep an eye on over the next two months: La Salle. The Explorers have won 11 of their last 12 games, beating Big 5 rival Penn 68-57 at The Palestra on Tuesday night. Point guard Tyreek Duren scored 21 points and dished out six assists while Earl Pettis added 18. The key for Dr. John Giannini's team, whose guards can play with anyone in the A-10, will be how they deal with bigger teams in league play.

5. Washington made things far more difficult than they needed to be in beating Seattle 91-83, but then again is anything expected to be "easy" for the Pac-12 this season? C.J. Wilcox scored a team-high 25 points off the bench while Tony Wroten scored 24 for the Huskies, who are off until Sunday's matchup with in-state rival Washington State.

6. Missouri State and Wichita State both took care of business at home to remain tied with Creighton atop the MVC standings, with the Bears beating Southern Illinois and Wichita State holding off Illinois State. And in Kyle Weems (MSU) and Joe Ragland (WSU), these two teams have players who can go off on a moment's notice if teams don't limit their looks.

7. Harvard avoided what would have been a catastrophic loss with regards to a possible at-large berth (should they need it) as they beat Monmouth 70-61. Keith Wright led the way with 18 points and 15 rebounds for the Crimson, who play George Washington before heading back into Ivy League play.

Three Notable Performances

1. G Brandon Paul (Illinois)
43 points (11-15 FG, 8-10 3PT), eight rebounds, four blocks, two assists and two steals in the Fighting Illini's 79-74 win over #5 Ohio State.

2. F Fuquan Edwin and G Jordan Theodore (Seton Hall)
The old Paterson Catholic teammates led the way for the Pirates in their 94-73 win over DePaul. Edwin scored a career-high 28 points and grabbed nine rebounds while Theodore added 26 and 11 assists.

3. F Kadeem Batts (Providence)
Batts, who was suspended for the fall semester, was one of the key figures in the Friars' 90-59 win over #15 Louisville. Batts scored 27 points, grabbed ten rebounds and blocked three shots in helping lead the Friars to their first Big East win under head coach Ed Cooley.

Bubble Watch: Memphis, Arkansas, UNI On the Edge

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 11:56:05 -0800

Based on CollegeHoops.net's most recent Bracketology projection, here is how the NCAA Tournament Bubble currently stands. CHN will publish Bubble Watch on Tuesday's following the Bracketology update.

As always, the field below is a prediction of what the committee would do as things stand today, not what they should do. Teams are listed in order of likelihood of making the tournament.

This week's notes: BYU & Iowa St jump into the field, replacing Florida St, Pittsburgh, and Minnesota. Dayton also enters the field as the new A10 leader, but as you see below, they'd most likely make the tourney as an at-large bid currently. Memphis remains just on the fringe, and Arkansas enters the bubble picture for the first time. Ohio, though still in the tourney as the projected MAC champs, would no longer be considered for an at-large bid in these projections.

Change	Seed	Team	Conf.	Record	RPI	KenPom	Sagarin	AP
	11	Texas	B12	11-4	72	26	44
	11	Arizona	P12	11-5	57	42	61
	12	Marshall	CUSA	10-4	46	54	51
	12	Cincinnati	BE	13-4	109	43	60
	12	Virginia Tech	ACC	11-4	40	38	41
	12	Xavier	A10	10-5	51	61	69
	12	BYU	WCC	12-4	45	21	28
	13	Northwestern	B10	11-4	31	67	50
	13	Iowa St	B12	12-3	44	53	54	38
Bubble
		Memphis	CUSA	10-5	36	31	30
		Arkansas	SEC	12-3	82	79	76	34
		Northern Iowa	MVC	11-4	23	47	46
		St. Joseph's	A10	11-5	47	59	57
		Florida St	ACC	9-6	85	46	73
		Pittsburgh	BE	11-5	84	62	77
		NC State	ACC	12-4	48	54	55
		Colorado St	B12	10-4	28	96	67
		Minnesota	B10	12-5	31	66	66

Dropped Out of Bubble Watch: Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Washington

Projected Conference Champs that would be on the Bubble if they lost title:

Change	Seed	Team	Conf.	Record	RPI	KenPom	Sagarin	AP
	10	Southern Miss	CUSA	13-2	11	72	34
	11	Dayton	A10	12-4	17	48	42	37
	11	Iona	MAAC	13-3	32	41	37
	13	Middle Tennessee	SB	14-2	86	58	43
Bubble
	13	Ohio	MAC	11-3	68	76	58
	13	Long Beach St	BW	8-6	22	40	38
		Belmont	ASUN	10-6	98	36	59
		Oral Roberts	SUM	14-4	53	52	48
		Nevada	WAC	11-3	81	86	79
		Davidson	SoCo	9-4	41	73	62

Projected Conference Leaders Out of Bubble Watch: Cleveland St

We'd love to hear your thoughts in the comments section or on twitter @collegehoopsnet :

Virginia Tech vs. Florida State: Tuesday's Preview

Raphielle Johnson — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 00:28:04 -0800

It may not be the "best" game on the schedule as Baylor visits Kansas State in what should be a very good Big 12 battle. But in terms of games that will definitely be remembered on Selection Sunday, there may not be a better game on Tuesday's slate than Florida State (9-6, 0-1) visiting Virginia Tech (11-4, 0-1). Both teams are looking to rebound from disappointing road losses on Saturday, as Florida State was blown out by Clemson and the Hokies fell at Wake Forest.

While both have solid strength of schedule numbers at this stage (FSU: 36; VT: 46), outside of Duke, North Carolina and (maybe) Virginia there aren't many "marquee" victories in the ACC. That means that head-to-head battles among the bubble teams could ultimately decide who goes dancing and who's relegated to the NIT. Florida State's issues on offense have been well-documented, and despite one of the better defenses in the country their inability to execute offensively could be what keeps them out of the tournament.

Leonard Hamilton's team isn't a good three-point shooting outfit, making just 30.7% from beyond the arc, but over all the Seminoles make 44.7% of their shots. The bigger issue for Florida State: turnovers. FSU averages a staggering 18.2 turnovers, handing the ball over on 25.6% of their possessions. Despite having players such as Michael Snaer (13.2 ppg, 4.1 rpg) and recent returnee Ian Miller (13.7 ppg), Florida State is in no position to be that "charitable" with the basketball.

The good news for FSU going into Tuesday night is that Virginia Tech hasn't been great at forcing turnovers, as their opponents turn the ball over on just 19.3% of their possessions. Virginia Tech forces just 12.6 turnovers per game with 5.3 of those coming by way of a steal, meaning that Seth Greenberg's team creates a "live-ball" turnover less than half the time. But the matchup between Miller and Virginia Tech's leader in steals will go a long way in determining the outcome.

Point guard Erick Green has a lot more on his plate this season due to the graduation of Malcolm Delaney, and he's been up to the task with averages of 15.7 points and 3.4 assists per game. The player who needs to step up for the Hokies is senior guard Dorenzo Hudson (11.5 ppg, 2.9 rpg), who has put together some impressive outings (31 vs. FIU, 18 at Oklahoma State) with some head scratchers. Hudson made just four of thirteen shots at Wake Forest, finishing with eight points, and the Hokies need more from him on a consistent basis to reach their full potential.

Inside the Seminoles are the bigger team, led by Bernard James (9.7 ppg, 8.7 rpg) and Xavier Gibson (8.3 ppg, 5.6 ppg), and their ability to hit the offensive boards is one reason why FSU still averages nearly a point per possession despite their turnover problem. FSU rebounds 38.6% of their misses, but Virginia Tech isn't far behind with an offensive rebounding percentage of 37.0%. Freshman Dorian Finney-Smith (7.1 ppg, 8.1 rpg) and sophomore Jarell Eddie (9.7 ppg, 5.0 rpg) are the Hokies' best rebounders, with Finney-Smith grabbing more than three offensive boards per game.

Virginia Tech's been the superior team offensively, but rebounding is where Florida State can bridge the gap. That won't matter much if the Seminoles can't take care of the basketball, however. There are still plenty of games to be played this season but Florida State's trek to Blacksburg is the kind of game that gets cited when reviewing resumes in March, and with both teams failing to win games you'd expect a tournament team on win on Saturday it's become for more important.

Illinois also has a chance to make a statement, although they're in better shape than either FSU or Virginia Tech, as they host #5 Ohio State in Champaign. The "Orange Krush" should be primed and ready for this matchup, as the Buckeyes won 73-68 at Assembly Hall last season. This will be another good test for sophomore center Meyers Leonard, as he'll take on Jared Sullinger in a matchup of two of the Big Ten's best interior players. If Illinois is to win they'll likely need another solid performance from freshman Joseph Bertrand, who has stepped up his production in recent weeks.

Baylor's trip to Manhattan was already going to be a dangerous one for the undefeated Bears, but Kansas State's win over Missouri on Saturday served as a reminder. The Bears have one of the nation's deepest frontcourts with Perry Jones III leading the way, but K-State can counter with Jamar Samuels, Thomas Gipson and Jordan Henriquez. The question for Baylor: can their guards deal with the solid defense of Will Spradling and Martavious Irving? If so, Baylor should be able to execute well enough to leave with a win. And in the MVC, Northern Iowa visits #21 Creighton in desperate need of a win if they're to be a contender for the regular season crown. Already trailing the lead pack by a game, the Panthers can't afford to fall two games back at this juncture in the season.

Top 25 Games
9:00 PM Miami (FL) at (3) North Carolina (ESPN3)
8:00 PM (4) Baylor at (18) Kansas State (ESPN3)
9:00 PM (5) Ohio State at Illinois (ESPN)
7:00 PM Iowa at (7) Michigan State
7:00 PM (15) Louisville at Providence
7:00 PM Georgia at (19) Florida (ESPN)
9:00 PM Northern Iowa at (21) Creighton (ESPN3)
10:00 PM Chicago State at (22) San Diego State
7:00 PM (25) Harvard at Monmouth

NCAA Division I Games
7:00 PM South Florida at Notre Dame (ESPN3)
7:00 PM La Salle at Pennsylvania
7:00 PM Florida State at Virginia Tech
7:00 PM Charleston Southern at Gardner-Webb
7:00 PM DePaul at Seton Hall (ESPN3)
7:00 PM Ball State at Toledo (ESPN3)
7:00 PM Liberty at Virginia Military
7:05 PM Evansville at Indiana State
8:00 PM Champion Baptist College at Southeastern Louisiana
8:05 PM Bradley at Drake
8:05 PM Southern Illinois at Missouri State
8:05 PM Illinois State at Wichita State
9:00 PM Vanderbilt at South Carolina
10:00 PM Seattle at Washington
10:00 PM NJIT at Cal State Bakersfield

Wednesday's Preview: #22 Kansas State at #15 Kansas

Raphielle Johnson — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 10:34:59 -0800

Wednesday's schedule features two match ups of Top 25 teams, but only one ranks among the better rivalries in college basketball. #22 Kansas State (11-1), winners of six straight games, takes on #15 Kansas (10-3) in Lawrence in the first of two meetings this season. And despite its rivalry status this is a series the Jayhawks have dominated of late, winning seven straight and eleven of twelve before the Wildcats won 84-68 in Manhattan last February. The key for Frank Martin's team is a simple one: limit the paint touches for junior forward Thomas Robinson (17.7 ppg, 12.2 rpg), as he's near unstoppable when given the opportunity to go to work around the basket.

Jeff Withey has also been an important figure for the Jayhawks up front as he's shown the ability to be a key contributor at times. But he played just eight minutes against North Dakota, as Bill Self sent the message that the junior needs to be more aggressive if he's to continue to get minutes. This may also apply to junior Kevin Young, who only played six minutes against North Dakota, and while he only averages ten minutes per contest against the deeper front courts of the Big 12 Young will have to step up. What these two can do to help out Robinson on the glass tonight could determine the outcome, as K-State has the edge on depth and rebounding margin up front.

Jamar Samuels (11.8 ppg, 7.2 rpg) is the leader in the front court for the Wildcats, and he's allowed to step out and do more work on the wing thanks to the presence of Thomas Gipson (10.4 ppg, 7.1 rpg) and Jordan Henriquez-Roberts (7.7 ppg, 5.7 rpg). Kansas State out-rebounds their opponents by a margin of 7.1 rebounds per game, while Kansas has a margin of just plus-0.9. Kansas State is also good at attacking the offensive boards, grabbing 15.2 which is good for a offensive rebounding percentage of 42.3%.

Turnovers, especially among the guards, will also be key as Kansas has struggled with taking care of the basketball at times. Senior Tyshawn Taylor (15.3 ppg, 5.2 apg) is also averaging 3.8 turnovers per game, and he's had some absolute clunkers this season in this regard. But he's turned the ball over six times in the last three games, which is quite the improvement when compared to his 12 turnovers in the games against Ohio State and Davidson that preceded that stretch. Elijah Johnson (10.2 ppg, 3.7 apg) and Travis Releford (8.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg) are the other starters on the perimeter, with Johnson being the best at taking care of the ball when looking at assist-to-turnover ratios.

Kansas State averages 14.7 turnovers per game, which is slightly higher than Kansas' 14.6 average, but the Wildcats have a "better" distribution of those mistakes as no one averages more than 1.9 per game. Guards Will Spradling (11.8 ppg, 2.7 apg) and Rodney McGruder (12.3 ppg, 5.2 rpg) handle the majority of the offensive duties for the Wildcats while Martavious Irving (6.2 ppg) is one of the better defensive guards in the Big 12. And a player to watch as a reserve is freshman Angel Rodriguez, who has scored in double figures in four of the last five games. If he can bring scoring punch while playing in control, K-State will be that much tougher to beat.

The other Top 25 matchup pits #20 Marquette against #9 Georgetown at the Verizon Center, with the winner remaining undefeated in Big East play. Darius Johnson-Odom and Jae Crowder have been two of the best players in the Big East, but what they get from Vander Blue could be the difference between a good season and a special one. It will also be interesting to see what Davante Gardner, who played very well against Villanova after being removed from the starting lineup, can do against Georgetown's Henry Sims. Sims is a tough matchup within Georgetown's system due to his ability to step out and make plays, and having perimeter players like Jason Clark and Hollis Thompson doesn't hurt either.

Duke plays a non-conference game before diving into ACC play and it won't be an easy one either, as they take on Temple in Philadelphia. The Blue Devils have to have an answer defensively for Ramone Moore, and senior Juan Fernandez had back-to-back games of 20+ points before scoring 11 in the Owls' win at Delaware. The question for Temple is whether or not they've got the bodies inside to keep Mason Plumlee off the glass. If not, beating Duke will become an even tougher task. In the CAA it's time to find out just how good Ron Hunter's Georgia State team is, as they visit a red-hot VCU team. Devonta White has helped lead the Panthers to a 10-3 start but with a strength of schedule of 344, we'll learn a lot more about their staying power tonight.

Indiana State/Northern Iowa is a key game in the Missouri Valley race with UNI already having two losses in league play, and in the Atlantic 10 Saint Louis visits Dayton in the Flyers' first full game without the injured Josh Benson (torn ACL). Those are both key contest when considering where those final at-large bids could go come Selection Sunday. Illinois' trip to Northwestern would qualify for that distinction as well, with the home team having never been to the Big Dance. Yancy Gates returns to the rotation as Cincinnati hosts Notre Dame, so that should be interesting to watch. And lastly, top-ranked Syracuse visits Providence as the late Dave Gavitt will be honored. The city is naming a street in honor of Gavitt, who founded the Big East Conference. Can Ed Cooley's team ride the emotion to what would be a historic upset? Not so sure about that.

Top 25 Games
9:00 PM (1) Syracuse at Providence (ESPN3)
7:00 PM (3) Duke at Temple (ESPN2)
7:00 PM (20) Marquette at (9) Georgetown (ESPN2)
8:00 PM (22) Kansas State at (15) Kansas (ESPN3)
8:00 PM Eastern Kentucky at (18) Murray State

NCAA Division I Games
6:00 PM Xavier at La Salle
7:00 PM Hofstra at Delaware
7:00 PM Auburn at Florida State (ESPN3)
7:00 PM Illinois at Northwestern (BTN)
7:00 PM UNC Wilmington at Northeastern
7:00 PM Delaware State at North Carolina State
7:00 PM West Virginia at Rutgers (ESPN3)
7:00 PM George Washington at St. Bonaventure
7:00 PM Pennsylvania at Lafayette
7:00 PM FGCU at Kennesaw State
7:00 PM Florida A&M at Ball State
7:00 PM Tulane at UCF
7:00 PM Notre Dame at Cincinnati (ESPN3)
7:00 PM Columbia at Colgate
7:00 PM Towson at Drexel
7:00 PM Saint Joseph's at Duquesne
7:00 PM USC Upstate at East Tennessee State
7:00 PM James Madison at William & Mary
7:15 PM Belmont at Jacksonville
7:30 PM Coppin State at Howard
7:30 PM Stetson at Mercer
7:30 PM Richmond at Charlotte
7:30 PM Georgia State at VCU
7:45 PM Lipscomb at North Florida
8:00 PM Southern Illinois at Bradley (ESPN3)
8:00 PM Mayville State at North Dakota
8:00 PM Texas Tech at Oklahoma State
8:00 PM Tennessee at Memphis
8:00 PM Tulsa at Houston
8:00 PM Southeastern Louisiana at Texas-Arlington
8:00 PM UTEP at Marshall
8:00 PM Stephen F. Austin at Texas State
8:00 PM Lamar at Texas A&M-CC (ESPN3)
8:00 PM Saint Louis at Dayton
8:00 PM Indiana State at Northern Iowa
8:00 PM Eastern Illinois at SIU-Edwardsville
8:00 PM East Carolina at Southern Miss
8:00 PM Rice at TCU
8:00 PM Nicholls State at UTSA
8:05 PM Wichita State at Evansville
8:05 PM Illinois State at Missouri State (ESPN3)
9:00 PM Texas at Iowa State
9:00 PM Iowa at Minnesota (BTN)