Ohio

Early 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 31 to 45

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 26 Mar 2012 13:30:12 -0700

Continuing with the Early 2012-13 Ranking, here are teams 31 to 45.

Its worth repeating that I had to make many assumptions about the NBA Draft in compiling the following list, and I've noted which assumptions I've made. This ranking will be updated later in the summer once players have made their official draft decisions. Also uncertain is where some remaining unsigned recruits will end up, and how the coaching carousel will take form. I purposely made no assumptions about where unsigned prospects will end up. (All prospect rankings are according to the Rivals 150 ranking.)

Early 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 31-45

31 UNLV UNLV loses two starters, though returnees Mike Moser and Anthony Marshall are two of the MWC's top talents. The hope is that incoming freshman Katin Reinhardt (7th best shooting guard by Rivals) helps offset the loss of sharp-shooter Chace Stanback.

32 Arizona While Solomon Hill and Nick Johnson are solid returning players, its really all about the newcomers. In Brandon Ashley, Kaleb Tarczewski, Gabe York, and Grant Jerrett, Arizona welcomes 4 Top 50 recruits with pro potential. The team's lack of star point guard could hold them back however.

33 Davidson Already the Southern Conference's elite team, Davidson should be even better next year with everyone of note returning. De'Mon Brooks and Jake Cohen form a solid inside-outside tandem, and with a little bit of luck in non-conference play, Davidson could be a Top 25 team. This is the year Davidson reaps the rewards of the Steph Curry recruiting bounce.

34 Tennessee Once Jarnell Stokes joined the team, Tennessee played like an NCAA Tournament team down the stretch. With the likes of Golden and Maymom returning, the Vols could even surpass this projection.

35 Ohio Everyone returns from a team that was just a few possessions away from the Elite Eight. Despite that, Ohio will not be a lock for the MAC title with solid squads returning across the league. Perhaps the league can potentially return to multiple-bid territory?

36 Washington It all comes down to the Draft for Washington. Freshman Tony Wroten and sophomore Terrence Ross are potential 1st Round Draft picks. I'm assuming for this prediction, that one of the two returns. If both return, UW could certainly make a push for the Pac-12 title.

37 Georgetown While Georgetown had a Top 15 season, they lose their best guard in Jason Clark and best big in Henry Sims. Hollis Thompson should return along with emerging talent Otto Porter to form a solid frontcourt. 5-star recruit D'Vauntes Smith Rivera (ranked 22nd by Rivals) is the key however. He replaces Clark as the team's main cog in the backcourt.

38 Cincinnati Cincinnati heads into next season without seniors Yancy Gates and Dion Dixon. Besides losing their 2nd and 3rd leading scorers, Gates was also their leading rebounder and main interior presence. With little recruiting help on the way, it will be key that Sean Kilpatrick continues to emerge as a bona fine star.

39 Colorado St The Rams were probably never as good as their RPI suggested, but they still had a damn good season. Will Bell is a minor loss, but the key cogs return for another shot at an MWC title. A pair of 3-star recruits join the fray as well, a better recruiting haul than usual.

40 St. Joseph's With the entire roster returning, St. Joseph's should be a contender for the Atlantic 10 crown. Anything less than a tourney bid would be extremely disappointing.

41 Murray St Although Isaiah Canaan is a star, others will need to step up now that Donte Poole, Ivan Aska, and Jewaun Long depart. In those three seniors, Murray loses almost 45% of its scoring. The program does potentially welcome the OVC's best recruiting class however.

42 UMASS Although leading rebounder Sean Carter graduates, UMASS should be in the A10's upper echelon. Do-everything sophomore guard Chaz Williams has been lighting up the NIT, and will be a contender for next season's A10 Player of the Year.

43 South Dakota St With no seniors on the roster, South Dakota St will be hoping to improve on their 1st round NCAA Tournament loss. Although Nate Wolters improved his all-around game this year, he needs to recapture the long-range shot that propelled him to 40% from three his sophomore year.

44 Purdue In Robbie Hummel, Lewis Jackson, and Ryne Smith, Purdue loses almost 50% of its scoring production, as well as their leaders in rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals. Although there is young talent waiting to breakout and a top-25 recruiting class on the way, Purdue will need another year before they're a major contender.

45 Missouri Frank Haith will somehow try and rebound from this year's shock 1st round exit without Denmon, English, Ratliffe, or Pressey. Although Missouri is loading up on solid (though not amazing) freshmen, it will take another year or two before the new squad finds its identity.

>> Continue to Teams 46 to 60.

Return to 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 1 to 30

Friday's Sweet 16 Thoughts

Raphielle Johnson — Thu, 22 Mar 2012 12:59:20 -0700

Thursday's Sweet 16 Preview

When compared to Thursday's slate the four matchups on Friday may leave a little to be desired for the casual fan, with a double-digit seed playing in three of the four games. The lone exception is Kentucky/Indiana, who staged a classic back in December. Here are some thoughts on the four games to be played in Atlanta and St. Louis.

South Region (Atlanta)

(3) Baylor vs. (10) Xavier (7:15 PM, CBS)
When looking solely at the match-ups in the paint the battle between the Bears and Musketeer could look a lot like Baylor's 2010 Sweet 16 game against Saint Mary's. Scott Drew's team had the edge in terms of both depth and size as the overwhelmed Omar Samhan and company to advance to the Elite 8. Baylor enjoys an advantage inside against Xavier as well, with the biggest question being which Kenny Frease shows up: the one who struggled mightily against St. Bonaventure in the A-10 tournament title, or the one who played well in wins over Notre Dame and Lehigh last weekend?

With the Musketeers having two of the best guards remaining in the field in Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons, they're going to need Frease, Andre Walker and even Travis Taylor to hold their own in the paint. The word "warrior" fits Baylor's Quincy Acy perfectly, and in Perry Jones III and Quincy Miller the Bears have two likely lottery picks whenever they decide to head to the next level. Cory Jefferson and Anthony Jones also factor into the rotation, and if they can rebound at a solid rate (Baylor rebounds 38% of their misses) it could be a rough evening for the Xavier bigs.

Clearly Xavier's chances of winning lie on the shoulders of Holloway and Lyons, and if those two can control the flow of the game it's more than possible that they win. Both shoot 43% from the field with Lyons being the better three-point shooter, and they'll need to post solid assist-to-turnover ratios as well. Dezmine Wells, who sprained his ankle in the win over Lehigh, will also factor into the Musketeer attack. Baylor's guards have improved as the season has progressed, which should make for a fun match-up on the perimeter.

Brady Heslip, nicknamed the "Downtown Canadian", shot the ball extremely well in Albuquerque last week and it will be interesting to see if he can continue to do so with the sight lines of the Georgia Dome. Pierre Jackson is their best playmaker and A.J. Walton has increased his impact down the stretch. As a team Baylor has a slightly better A/T ratio (1.08 to Xavier's 1.04) but they turn the ball over on a higher percentage of their possessions (20.5% to 18.6%). If Frease and company can hold their own inside Xavier has a shot, making that the biggest key to tomorrow's game.

(1) Kentucky vs. (4) Indiana (9:45 PM, CBS)
Lost count of how many times ESPNU has shown the replay of their December 10th meeting in Bloomington this week? Can't blame you if you have, but with that being the Wildcats' lone regular season defeat (losing to Vanderbilt in the SEC tournament final) there's good reason why many would look back to that game for keys on how to beat Kentucky. But to be fair John Calipari's team is a different group now than they were back in December, with the play of Terrence Jones and Marquis Teague being two reasons why.

Teague, who played well in the regular season meeting between the two, has improved in regards to knowing when to establish his own offense and when to get Kentucky's other weapons involved. The Indianapolis native has a better A/T ratio (1.7) than any of Indiana's guards, and unless the Hoosiers give the responsibility of defending Teague to Victor Oladipo it remains to be seen who can slow him down. Jones' issue is similar to that of Baylor's Perry Jones III. When he's engaged and fully invested in the action, he's very difficult to slow down. And when paired with Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, that trio can wreak havoc when clicking on all cylinders.

Indiana was able to get Davis in foul trouble, limiting his impact on the game. Davis can clearly move his feet on the perimeter but it wouldn't be a surprise if the Hoosiers looked to run some early pick and roll action with Cody Zeller to not just take Davis away from the rim but to also see if they can pick up an early foul (or two) on the phenom. Zeller will be a key figure for the Hoosiers but so will Christian Watford, whose ability to play on the perimeter should match up well with Kidd-Gilchrist. The key for Watford will be to hit the glass; playing outside is fine but not at the expense of those "tough" plays in the paint.

Kentucky's the better team on the glass and they're the more efficient of the two both offensively and defensively as well. But IU won the first meeting by being the more efficient team in spite of 18 turnovers, a result of their ability to hold their own on the glass (30-30) and shooting 60% from three. Clearly if those things happen again Indiana will be in good position to win, but that's asking an awful lot of the Hoosiers. Jordan Hulls and Will Sheehey will be key figures on the perimeter, with Indiana needing to win the backcourt battle if they're to advance.

Midwest Region (St. Louis)

(1) North Carolina vs. (13) Ohio (7:47 PM, TBS)
North Carolina hasn't enjoyed the greatest of luck with wrists this month, first having John Henson injure his left wrist during the ACC tournament and then having Kendall Marshall break his right wrist against Creighton on Sunday. Marshall's injury is the one to watch approaching Friday night's battle with Ohio, with it being unlikely that the sophomore plays despite getting the cast removed. Whether or not Marshall plays however, UNC is going to have a heck of a time figuring out how to slow down Bobcat point guard D.J. Cooper.

Cooper leads the Bobcats in scoring and assists while also grabbing 3.8 rebounds per game, and with an A/T ratio of 2.0 he's a more than sound decision-maker as well. Be it Justin Watts or Stilman White's who's at the point at any given time, UNC has to figure out a way to slow down Cooper. Do that and they slow down John Groce's offense as a whole. Nick Kellogg and Walter Offutt are both solid shooters with the latter also being Ohio's second-leading scorer, yet as a team they shoot just 43% from the field and essentially break even on assists (13.1 per game) and turnovers (13.0).

UNC has been far better in that area thanks in large part to Marshall, but it remains to he seen how well they do if he can't go. Ohio's forced 17 turnovers per game this season, and if they can approach that number on Friday night the Bobcats would have a shot. But can Ivo Baltic and company play well enough inside against Henson and Tyler Zeller? That's the biggest question mark for Ohio, who doesn't have a player taller than 6-8 in their rotation. Reggie Keely will be another banger in the paint for Ohio but UNC is the far superior rebounding team, and with Harrison Barnes on the wing there will be some difficult match-ups for Ohio to address.

North Carolina averages 1.13 points/possession on the season, but two of their losses (Duke at home at Florida State in the ACC title game) have come when they've exceeded that number. The reason against Florida State was defense, as the Seminoles scored 1.21 points/possession. Duke was able to pull off a miraculous comeback in the final three minutes, so there may not be as much to read into there. But Ohio doesn't have the size that Florida State has, making it tough to see them being able to go blow for blow with Henson and Zeller. That doesn't mean that the Bobcats can't win; just means that completing the task will be very difficult.

(2) Kansas vs. (11) NC State (10:17 PM, TBS)
The nightcap in St. Louis will be a very interesting battle as the Wolfpack have interior depth to throw at Kansas. Purdue was able to be physical with the All-American, rotating players on Robinson to take advantage of the five fouls afforded to each. But Mark Gottfied, while he may have the bodies to do so, can't afford to have a Richard Howell, C.J. Leslie or C.J. Williams to end up in early foul trouble. That's been a problem for NC State when they've struggled this season, and it's a battle that the Pack have been able to avoid for the most part through two games in the Big Dance.

The key for Kansas inside will be the play of their rotation guys not named Robinson, with Jeff Withey clearly being the most important. Withey, who has improved a great deal since last season, has scored in double figures just three times in the last nine games with all three being 11-point outings. Of greater importance will be his work on the glass, where after grabbing nine (and blocking five shots) against Detroit he was only able to corral two in 15 minutes of action on Sunday. Justin Wesley and Kevin Young also stand to see some action with Young grabbing seven boards against Purdue.

Leslie's a slender four who can run the floor with the best of them, and of his current stretch of 15 straight games in double figures he's shot below 42% from the field just twice with one being a 41.7% outing against Boston College. The Jayhawks and Wolfpack are rather similar when it comes to hitting the offensive glass (State has a OR% of 35.6% while Kansas is at 35.0%) but Kansas has done a better job of keeping their opponent from doing so. That could make a difference down the stretch, especially if NC State is dealing with foul trouble in the paint.

The battle at the point between Lorenzo Brown and Tyshawn Taylor should be fun to watch, with Young playing very well and Taylor looking to rebound from a subpar outing against Purdue. But at this point it's known what Taylor will bring to the table, making the production of Elijah Johnson and Travis Releford all the more important.

Johnson was outstanding on Sunday; without him this is a preview of Purdue/NC State as opposed to Kansas. If he can bring a similar performance (18 points, four rebounds) to the table Kansas will be tough to beat. Defensively they need to keep an eye on Scott Wood, one of the ACC's best shooters, and if NC State can get some open looks without relying on the three too much they're more than capable of springing the upset.

North Carolina vs Ohio: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Tue, 20 Mar 2012 08:07:37 -0700

(1) North Carolina vs. (13) Ohio: Midwest Region

Records

North Carolina 31-5, 14-2 ACC (Regular-season Conference Champions; At large)

Ohio 29-7, 11-5 MAC (Conference Tournament Champions)

Time: 7:47 p.m. Friday

TV: TBS

Location: Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis

Winner will face: (2) Kansas or (11) North Carolina State, Sunday

Tournament Results

North Carolina def. Vermont 77-58; def. Creighton 87-78

Ohio def. Michigan 65-60; def. South Florida 62-56

Rankings

North Carolina No. 4 AP; No. 5 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

North Carolina 4

Ohio 43

Line: North Carolina -10½ (O/U 143)

Players to Watch

North Carolina: F Tyler Zeller, 7-0 Sr. (16.5 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 50.2% FG); F Harrison Barnes, 6-8 So. (17.3 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 37.6% 3s); F John Henson, 6-11 Jr. (13.8 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 2.9 bpg). Henson returned from a wrist injury with an impressive 13-point, 10-rebound, 4-block performance in the Tar Heels’ impressive win over Creighton.

Ohio: G D.J. Cooper, 5-11 Jr. (14.7 ppg, 5.7 apg, 2.3 spg); G Walter Offutt, 6-3 Jr. (11.7 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 1.8 apg); G Nick Kellogg, 6-3 So. (8.8 ppg, 1.1 spg, 41.8% 3s). Offutt is a great story. After several knee injuries and a couple of transfer, Offutt proved that he still has the talent to play the game on Sunday, putting up 21 points on 7-of-9 from the field, including hitting all four of his 3-pointers.

Why Each Team Dangerous

North Carolina: With Henson back in the fold, no team rebounds and defends the basket better than the Tar Heels. Against Creighton, Carolina had a 43-34 rebounding advantage, got 11 offensive boards and blocked nine shots. UNC shot 50.8 percent from the field and hit half of its 3s. The Heels also held Creighton – the nation’s leading field goal shooting team – to 28-of-68.

Ohio: The Bobcats win with steady guard play and defense. Cooper, Offutt and Kellogg make up a strong backcourt. The Bobcats average 13.1 assists per game and has a plus-4.3 turnover ratio. Defensively, Ohio allows opponents to shoot just 41.2 percent from the floor and 29.3 from the line. They force 17.3 turnovers and get 9.3 steals per game. They had nine steals, among five different players, in the win over South Florida.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

North Carolina: If Marshall is out – and he likely is for at least this game – who runs the point for Carolina? Marshall is arguably the nation’s best point guard and almost undoubtedly the most important. The Tar Heels already turn the ball over 12 times and allows six steals per game. Without Marshall, Ohio’s defense becomes very dangerous. Carolina is not a great shooting team, hitting just 34.2 percent from behind the 3-point line and 68.4 from the free throw line.

Ohio: The Bobcats can not contend with North Carolina on the boards. They were out-rebounded on the season and South Florida had a plus-7 rebounding margin on Sunday. For the season, they shoot just 43 points from the field, 34.2 from the 3-point line and 68.8 from the foul line. Ohio also turns the ball over 13 times per game. Against a longer, more athletic UNC team, taking care of the basketball could prove difficult.

The Bottom Line: Ohio’s been a nice story, but the teams the Bobcats have beaten have had serious flaws. North Carolina may have a flaw or two, especially if Marshall isn’t able to play, but it’s hard to imagine the Bobcats getting many rebounds or points in the paint.

The Pick: North Carolina 79, Ohio 61

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 214-164-6

NCAA Tournament (through first two rounds): 27-21-1

Jon Teitel's Forgotten Legends: Ohio's Gary Trent

Jon Teitel — Mon, 19 Mar 2012 20:47:39 -0700

In the latest installment in his "Forgotten Legends" interview series CHN writer Jon Teitel spent some time with Ohio University great Gary Trent. The "Shaq of the MAC", Trent remains in the Top 5 in four major statistical categories at the school and he was also a three-time MAC Player of the Year.

Jon Teitel: Your nickname was "Shaq of the MAC". Who gave it to you, and how did you like it?

Gary Trent: I got it from a guy at Sports Illustrated who came to see me in a game where I had eight dunks. It fit me and my style of play.

JT: As a senior at Hamilton Township HS you set a national high school shooting record (81.4 FG%). Were you just that much better than everyone else or was the defense that bad?

GT: I did not have any moves so I played a lot of "bully ball" where I tried to get a high-percentage shot like a dunk or layup. I am surprised that it has not been broken.

JT: In 1993 you became the 1st player ever to win MAC Freshman of the Year and Player of the Year honors in the same season. How were you able to come in and be so successful so quickly?

GT: I worked hard and took advantage of the opportunity to play: my guys just believed in me.

JT: Coach Larry Hunter occasionally instituted the "Gary Trent Rule", which meant that your teammates could not shoot the ball until you touched it first. How often was the rule used, and what would your teammates do if you were double-teamed?

GT: The rule was not for me to shoot all the time. It was just used to play from the inside out. It was great for me and my teammates believed that it would help our team be successful. I was an unselfish player so it helped keep the defense balanced.

JT: In February 1994 you scored a career-high 46 points in a win over Bowling Green. Was it just one of those scenarios where every shot you put up seemed to go in because you were "in the zone"?

GT: I was playing very hard, but only had 10 points at halftime.

1994 MAC tournament final

JT: This was the first time that your father got to see you on TV (he was a prisoner at Ashland Federal Correctional Institution in Kentucky). How excited was he to get to watch you play?

GT: I am sure he was excited. He went away when I was in middle school, but I mailed him a lot of articles about myself during high school.

JT: You had 22 points and 12 rebounds in a win over Miami (OH) en route to being named tournament MVP. How big a deal was it to beat your in-state rival, and what was the feeling like in your locker room afterward?

GT: It was a great feeling. We had not had that level of success before. You can never have any ill feelings towards success unless you are a selfish person. It could have been anyone but it was great for TV that it was a rivalry game.

JT: What are your memories of the 1994 NCAA tournament (Trent had 18 points and 12 rebounds in loss to Indiana, who was led by Alan Henderson with 34 points and 13 rebounds on 14 of 21 shooting)?

GT: It was one of the few times where they had a 7-footer fronting me and another big guy behind me. We were young and Bobby Knight was a veteran coach with a good game plan.

JT: What are your memories of the 1994 preseason NIT title game (you had 33 points (12-12 FG) and 20 rebounds in a win over New Mexico State at MSG)?

GT: That was a beautiful night. We were playing in prime time at MSG on ESPN. The only two teams playing in the country at that time. We could not have had a bigger audience, and I played a dream game that really helped my stock with NBA scouts and fans that had never seen me play.

JT: What are your memories of the 1995 NIT (Andre Woolridge hit a jumper with 20 seconds left in a four-point Iowa win)?

GT: It was a tough game on the road, but it was part of our learning process. We just came up short.

JT: You were a three-time MAC Player of the Year (1993-1995). What did it mean to you to win such outstanding individual honors?

GT: A lot of it came from my teammates giving me the ball and our coaching staff believing in me and working hard in practice.

JT: In the summer of 1995 you were drafted 11th overall by Milwaukee (six spots behind Kevin Garnett), then immediately traded to Portland. How did it feel to be drafted, and how did it feel to be traded?

GT: It was great to be drafted, as it encompassed my body of hard work and a dream come true. The trade did not matter to me.

JT: What are your memories of Game 5 of the 1996 Western Conference first round with Portland (your team shot 33% from the field and had a 37-11 free throw disparity in a 102-64 loss to Utah, which set a record for fewest points in a playoff game)?

GT: It was exciting to be in the playoffs, but we knew what Stockton and Malone brought to the table.

JT: In Game 7 of the 2004 Western Conference Semifinals with Minnesota, Kevin Garnett had 32 points, 21 rebounds, five blocks and four steals on his birthday in a three-point win over Sacramento (the only guy to ever have 30+ points, 20+ rebounds and four-plus steals in a playoff game). Where does that rank among the greatest performances you have ever seen?

GT: Kevin is a very hard worker and a future Hall of Famer. I learned a lot from his mental approach, and he had a very high skill set for someone that tall. I have never seen anyone guard positions 1-5 due to his ability and passion.

JT: After retiring from the NBA you played in Greece and Italy. What did you learn from these experiences, and how does pro ball overseas compare to the NBA?

GT: Everything over there is a step behind, but it was great to live overseas, learn a new language, and have a new experience. I got to home-school my son.

JT: You got your degree in business management last summer and now work as an intervention specialist for an inner city elementary school in Minnesota. How do you like the job, and what do you hope to do in the future?

GT: I love working with children and giving them some understanding of life. The only thing I would rather do is be an NBA or college coach, but I love what I do now.

Trent is also on Jon's list of best fantasy players in MAC history.

Akron: Joe Jakubick (1984) 2583 PTS (#1), 189 STL (#2), 50.9 FG% (#1), 3-time All-American, 2-time conference POY
Ball State: Bonzi Wells (1998) 2485 PTS (#1), 843 REB (#4), 386 AST (#5), 347 STL (#1), 2-time All-American, 2-time conference POY
Bowling Green: Antonio Daniels (1997) 1792 PTS (#4), 563 AST (#2), 162 STL (#5), All-American, conference POY
Buffalo: Turner Battle (2005) 1414 PTS (#5), 458 AST (#3), 170 STL (#5), 126 3PM (#4), All-American, conference POY
Central Michigan: Dan Majerle (1988) 2055 PTS (#2), 834 REB (#5), 171 STL (#3), 95 BLK (#5)
Eastern Michigan: Kennedy McIntosh (1971) 2219 PTS (#1), 1426 REB (#1), All-American
Kent State: Trevor Huffman (2002) 1820 PTS (#1), 520 AST (#3), 80.5 FT% (#4), 210 3PM (#1)
Miami (OH): Ron Harper (1986) 2377 PTS (#1), 1119 REB (#1), 287 STL (#1), 173 BLK (#1), 53.4 FG% (#3), All-American, 2-time conference POY
Northern Illinois: TJ Lux (2000) 1996 PTS (#1), 1110 REB (#1), 130 STL (#5), 156 BLK (#3)
Ohio: Gary Trent (1995) 2108 PTS (#3), 1050 REB (#2), 105 BLK (#5), 57.3 FG% (#3), All-American, 3-time conference POY
Toledo: Ken Epperson (1985) 2016 PTS (#1), 960 REB (#1), 55.5 FG% (#4)
Western Michigan: David Kool (2010) 2122 PTS (#1), 163 STL (#5), 231 3PM (#2), 89 FT% (#2), All-American, conference POY

Poll: Which Surprise Team Has Best Chance of Advancing to Elite 8?

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 19 Mar 2012 07:46:40 -0700

Top 10 Performances of 2nd Round: 2012 Tournament

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 18 Mar 2012 21:41:31 -0700

The top 10 performances of the 2nd Round. No more intro is needed:

1 Brady Heslip, Baylor - 27 pts, 4 rbs, 9-12 from three. Against a Colorado team that had been winning with defense, Heslip exploded with 9 threes.

2 Kenny Frease, Xavier - 25 pts, 13 rbs, 2 blks - The biggest game of Frease's career. Previously had only 4 double-doubles all season and not a single 20 point game.

3 Draymond Green, Michigan St - 16 pts, 13 rbs, 6 asts, 2 stls - Where would MSU be without him? Majerus sung Green's praises after SLU fell.

4 Walter Offutt, Ohio - 21 pts, 3 rbs, 4 stls, 4-4 from three. Offutt's hot shooting helped a team put 60 on the board vs. USF for first time since February.

5 Jae Crowder, Marquette - 17 pts, 13 rbs, 3 asts, 3 stls, 2 blks - There's a reason he earned so many Big East plaudits. Was the difference in a game that was closer than the score suggests.

6 Royce White, Iowa St - 23 pts, 9 rbs, 4 asts, 3 stls, 1 blk. Stat-sheet filler isn't greatest shooter, but take him off Iowa St and they're not even an NIT team.

7 Drew Gordon, New Mexico - 21 pts, 14 rbs, 2 asts - He accounted for 38% of the Lobos offense in a close loss to Louisville.

8 Robbie Hummel, Purdue - 26 pts, 9 rbs, 3 asts - Had monster 22 point first half, but faded along with Purdue's upset hopes. Still managed 43% of Purdue's points.

9 Aaron Craft, Ohio St - 17 pts, 10 asts, 3 rbs, 3 stls - Had his first 10 assist game of the season. Owned Gonzaga's opposing guards.

10 Marquis Teague, Kentucky - 24 pts, 7 asts, 4 rbs, 10-14 shooting. First 20-point game of the freshman's career. Where was this Teague 2 months ago?

Others of Note:

DJ Cooper, Ohio - 19 pts, 7 rbs, 6 asts, 2 stls - Standard do-it-all performance from the Bobcats main main.

John Henson, North Carolina - 13 pts, 10 rbs, 4 blks, 2 steals - Back from injury, his presence was felt even more than his stats suggest.

Elijah Johnson, Kansas - 18 pts, 4 rbs, 3 asts, 2 stls - With Thomas Robinson struggling, he keyed Kansas to a comeback win.

Sean Kilpatrick, Cincinnati - 18 pts, 6 rbs, 2 stls - With Wright and Dixon 7-24 from the floor, Cincy needed Kilpatrick to step up.

Kendall Marshall, North Carolina - 18 pts, 11 asts, 4 rbs, 7-8 shooting. Every jumper he hit seemed to be worth 4 points to UNC.

Hollis Thompson, Georgetown - 23 pts, 5 rbs, 3 stls, 2 blks - Basically a one-man team in tough loss to NC State.

On to the Sweet Sixteen!

Ohio vs South Florida: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Sat, 17 Mar 2012 20:18:25 -0700

(12) South Florida vs. (13) Ohio: Midwest Region

Records

South Florida 22-13, 12-6 Big East (At large)

Ohio 28-7, 11-5 MAC (Conference Tournament Champions)

Time: 7:10 p.m. Sunday

TV: TBS

Location: Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tenn.

Winner will face: (1) North Carolina or (8) Creighton, Friday in St. Louis

First round results

South Florida def. Temple, 58-44

Ohio def. Michigan, 65-60

RPI Ratings

South Florida 34

Ohio 46

Line: South Florida -4 (O/U 114½)

Players to Watch

South Florida: G Anthony Collins, 6-1 Fr. (8.6 ppg, 5.2 apg, 1.7 spg); F Victor Rudd Jr., 6-7 So. (8.9 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.3 apg); F Augustus Gilchrist, 6-10 Sr. (9.6 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.3 bpg). Collins was phenomenal Friday against Temple’s more experience backcourt. He made six of his 12 field goal attempts and 5-of-7 free throws for 17 points. He also had five assists, four rebounds and a steal in the win.

Ohio: G D.J. Cooper, 5-11 Jr. (14.6 ppg, 5.7 apg, 2.4 spg); G Walter Offutt, 6-3 Jr. (11.7 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 35.2% 3s); F Ivo Baltic, 6-8 Jr. (9 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 47.8% FG). Baltic’s performance was huge for the Bobcats Friday. He played 36 minutes, scored 10 points, grabbed seven boards and, along with Reggie Keely, gave the Bobcats a nice lift in the paint.

Why Each Team Dangerous

South Florida: The Bulls have one of the best defenses in the tournament, and in the second half on Friday, their offense came alive for 43 points. For the season, USF is holding opponents to 38.8 percent from the floor, including a 15-for-42 night by Temple. Opponents are shooting just 29.7 percent from behind the 3-point line, including 2-for-12 from the Owls. South Florida forces 13.7 turnovers per game. Coach Stan Heath’s defense is outstanding inside and out.

Ohio: Cooper is a stellar and clearly a solid go-to scorer. That’s always crucial in the NCAA Tournament. Cooper was at his best Friday, hitting seven of his 11 shots, three of his six 3-pointers and four of his five foul shots. He also had five assists. As Cooper goes, so go the Bobcats. Ohio held Michigan to 40.7 percent from the field and 7-of-23 from the 3-point line and scoreless for the final 4:12 of the contest. And it wasn’t an anomaly. For the season, opponents are shooting just 41.2 percent from the field and 29.6 from the 3-point line. The Bobcats get 9.4 steals per game and force an astounding 17.7 turnovers.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

South Florida: Even with 43 points in the second half Friday, the Bulls shot just 34 percent from the floor against Temple. This is not a good offensive team. For the year, the Bulls shoot 43.6 percent from the floor, and despite an 8-for-15 night against the Owls, USF shoots just 31.6 percent from 3. Against a stellar Ohio perimeter defense, points are going to be tough to come by.

Ohio: The Bobcats get much of their point production from Cooper’s ability to penetrate defense, as it was Friday against the Wolverines. His going will be tough against South Florida’s defense. Aside from Keely and T.J. Hall, Ohio has almost no depth. Against a physical South Florida team, foul trouble could really hurt the Bobcats. Despite a 51.2 percent performance from the floor against Michigan, Ohio doesn’t typically shoot well. For the season, Ohio is a 43.2 percent shooting team and hits just 33.9 percent of its 3-pointers.

The Bottom Line: Usually, my advice is to take the player with the experienced go-to scorer. In this case, though, I love the way USF is playing.

The Pick: South Florida 60, Ohio 53

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 216-165-6 (Through Friday, March 17)

Round of 32 Against the Spread: 19-12-1

Friday's NCAA Tournament Games to Watch

Raphielle Johnson — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 07:44:42 -0700

After an "opening" day that went mostly according to form, the hope of many is that Friday's slate provides some upsets. And with some of the matchups providing a nice contrast in styles as well as talented players on mid-major squads who may not be household names just yet, there's a good chance that an upset does happen. Here's the schedule for today along with a game from each site that you should keep track of.

Columbus: (8) Memphis vs. (9) Saint Louis
6:50 PM EST, TBS

Both of these teams have the potential to give Michigan State fits on Sunday, albeit for different reasons. Josh Pastner's Tigers were a team many expected to be in the Top 10 to start the season, but losses against the better teams on their non-conference schedule reuslted in Memphis likely being underseeded. Will Barton has been outstanding all season long, and the emergence of Chris Crawford has been another factor in their current run. The keys for Memphis are simple: make sound decisions without the basketball and make sure Tarik Black doesn't end up in early foul trouble.

Rick Majerus' Billikens get it done in a different way, as they're more comfortable with a game played in the half court. Kwamain Mitchell has played well at the point and despite his height Brian Conklin will battle inside for 40 minutes. SLU is one of the best coached teams in the tournament, so in that regards it may be safe to assume that at some point Saint Louis could have something special lined up Memphis especially if Barton gets rolling early. Both teams have been very good in regards to their efficiency numbers this season on both ends of the floor, which should lead to a tight contest. The team that does the better job of influencing the tempo of the game likely wins.

Other games in Columbus
(6) San Diego State vs. (11) NC State; 12:40 PM EST (truTV)
(3) Georgetown vs. (14) Belmont; 3:10 PM EST (truTV)
(1) Michigan State vs. (16) LIU Brooklyn; 9:20 PM EST (TBS)

Greensboro: (8) Creighton vs. (9) Alabama
1:40 PM EST, TBS

Xavier/Notre Dame is another contest to keep tabs on in Greensboro, but the first game of the day will be interesting in regards to how the Crimson Tide go about guarding Doug McDermott. With Tony Mitchell dismissed from the team a few weeks ago the most likely option for Anthony Grant is no longer present. But that doesn't mean that Alabama is without hope, as they allow opponents to shoot just 38.8% from the field. That's five percentage points better than Creighton, who's had issues defensively for much of the season. If McDermott and Antoine Young can get things going offensively the Bluejays should be able to create their kind of game.

But that's easier said than done, and they'll have to get stops at some point. Trevor Releford leads the way on the perimeter, and Alabama's going to need a Trevor Lacey or Levi Randolph to step up scoring-wise alongside him if they're to win. The battle in the paint between JaMychal Green and Gregory Echenique could be determined early if one of them gets into early foul trouble. The winner gets North Carolina and while most of the country likely hopes that it's Creighton who advances, they're going to need to bring a higher level of intensity on the defensive end if they're to move on.

Other games in Greensboro
(1) North Carolina vs. (16) Vermont; 3:10 PM EST (TBS)
(2) Duke vs. (15) Lehigh; 7:15 PM EST (CBS)
(7) Notre Dame vs. (10) Xavier; 9:45 PM EST (CBS)

Nashville: (4) Michigan vs. (13) Ohio
7:20 PM EST, TNT

All four games in Nashville have the potential to produce wins by the lower-seeded team, so don't be surprised if the Bobcats give Michigan a run for their money. Point guard D.J. Cooper has played very well for John Groce, leading the team in both points and assists. Cooper was also a member of that team that knocked off Georgetown two years ago so the experience shouldn't be a concern either. Ohio's got some talented players alongside Cooper such as Ivo Baltic, Walter Offutt and perimeter shooter Nick Kellogg. The key for the Bobcats: defending the three.

Michigan may not have the most impressive percentage from beyond the arc (35.2%) but that doesn't deter John Beilein's team from taking the shot, as they score 36.8% of their points via the three. Trey Burke has been outstanding at the point for Michigan, and joining him on the perimeter are Stu Douglass, Tm Hardaway Jr. and Zack Novak. If Jordan Morgan can control things in the paint that would bode well for the Wolverines as neither team is particularly good in the rebounding department. Ohio also forces more than 17 turnovers a game, but with Michigan averaging just 10.9 something has to give there. How well Ohio defends the three will likely determine the outcome.

Other games in Nashville
(6) Cincinnati vs. (11) Texas; 12:15 PM EST (CBS)
(3) Florida State vs. (14) St. Bonaventure; 2:45 PM EST (CBS)
(5) Temple vs. (12) USF; 9:50 PM EST (TNT)

Omaha: (7) Saint Mary's vs. (10) Purdue
7:27 PM EST, truTV

This has the potential to be one of the best games of the day due to the point guard position. Saint Mary's relies heavily on Matthew Dellavedova and rightfully so, as the WCC Player of the Year leads the team in both points and assists. On the other side is senior Lewis Jackson, who is one of the toughest players in college basketball. The Boilermakers need Jackson to keep Dellavedova out of his comfort zone on the floor, forcing him to both take challenged shots and make passes from tougher angles. If Jackson can do that the Boilers are more than capable of winning.

Also of note are seniors Robbie Hummel (Purdue) and Rob Jones (Saint Mary's), with the latter being virtually a guaranteed double-double for much of the season. Hummel's bounced back from two ACL tears to lead the Boilermakers in scoring, and he'll have to continue that today. The Gaels also have Brad Waldow inside, and off the bench Clint Steindl can make teams pay with his ability to knock down the perimeter shot. Having Stephen Holt go down didn't derail Saint Mary's on their way to the WCC regular season and tournament titles, and they're more than capable of getting to the Sweet 16 as well.

Other games in Omaha
(7) Florida vs. (10) Virginia; 2:10 PM EST (TNT)
(2) Missouri vs. (15) Norfolk State; 4:40 PM EST (TNT)
(2) Kansas vs. (15) Detroit; 9:57 PM EST (truTV)

Michigan vs Ohio: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Wed, 14 Mar 2012 06:18:35 -0700

(4) Michigan vs. (13) Ohio: Midwest Region

Records

Michigan 24-9, 13-5 Big Ten (Regular-season 3 Way-Conference Champs; At large)

Ohio 27-7, 11-5 MAC (Conference Tournament Champions)

Time: 7:20 p.m. Friday

TV: TNT

Location: Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tenn.

Winner will face: (8) Memphis or (9) Saint Louis, Sunday

Rankings

Michigan No. 13 AP; No. 14 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Michigan 15

Ohio 51

Line: Michigan -6 (O/U 125½)

Players to Watch

Michigan: G Trey Burke, 5-11 Fr. (14.8 ppg, 4.6 apg, 3.5 rpg); G Tim Hardaway Jr., 6-6 So. (14.6 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 2.1 apg); F Jordan Morgan, 6-8 So. (7.3 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 62% FG). Burke was named Co-Freshman of the Year and second-team All-Big Ten by Big Ten coaches while leading the Wolverines in scoring, assists and steals.

Ohio: G D.J. Cooper, 5-11 Jr. (14.6 ppg, 5.7 apg, 2.4 spg); G Walter Offutt, 6-3 Jr. (11.7 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 1.5 spg); F Reggie Keely, 6-8 Jr. (9.2 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 53% FG). Cooper is the star, but Keely was the difference in the MAC Tournament with 35 points (on 12-of-20 from the field) and 20 rebounds in the 3-game tourney run.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Michigan: This team lost just one player – PG Darius Morris – from last year’s team that destroyed Tennessee and nearly beat Duke in the NCAA Tournament. And as it turns out, Burke is at least on the same level as Morris. The Big Ten champions aren’t a great shooting teams, but they have a lot of players who can hit shots from anywhere on the floor. They score 36.8 percent of their points from the 3-point line. Burke and Hardaway are an excellent 1-2 punch and six different Wolverines average at least 7.3 points. Michigan turns the ball over just 10.9 times per contest.

Ohio: The Bobcats had some head-scratching losses, but they won their last four games and eight of their last night, including two wins over MAC regular-season champion Akron. Cooper is one of the best players in this tournament and led Ohio to a first-round upset of Georgetown in the 2010 NCAA Tournament. Ohio wins with defense. The Bobcats have held opponents 62.4 points per game, to 41.2 percent from the field and 29.6 from beyond the 3-point line. They average an astounding 9.4 steals per game and force a lofty 17.6 turnovers.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Michigan: The Wolverines sometimes struggle to score. They scored 64 points or less in regulation 17 times in 33 games. Michigan only goes six or seven deep, so foul trouble could be an issue. The Wolverines were out-rebounded by their opponents this season and their opponents got to the foul line more often than they did. Michigan’s 492 free throw attempts was 324^th in the country.

Ohio: Ohio’s offensive has been explosive at times, but it is not a good shooting team. It is shooting 42.9 percent from the field, 33.8 percent from the 3-point line and 68.1 percent from the foul line. The Bobcats were out-rebounded by their opponents and they had more turnovers than assists.

The Bottom Line: If Michigan gets out and runs, it can bury Ohio. They’ll probably stick with their usual gameplan, though, giving the Bobcats a chance to cover.

The Pick: Michigan 68, Ohio 63

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 198-150-6 (Through Tuesday, March 14)

NCAA Tournament: 10 Potential First Round Upsets

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 12 Mar 2012 10:04:11 -0700

Top 10 Most Likely Upsets

March is no time to play it safe. When you fill in your brackets over the next few days, here are the 10 most likely First Round upsets to focus on:

10 #14 South Dakota St over #3 Baylor

Led by Nate Wolters, South Dakota St had a rock-solid season with only one bad loss. In games against power conference teams, they've been very competitive (including a shock 19 point win at Washington.) This is not the best match-up for the Jackrabbits though as Baylor's size will be hard for them to handle.

9 #12 VCU over #5 Wichita St

VCU arguably deserved a 10 or 11 seed, instead of getting unlucky going against a Wichita St team that arguably was a 4 seed. Although their not as good as last year's Final Four team, the Rams play solid D which keeps them in most games.

9 #15 Detroit over #2 Kansas

While no 16 seed has ever won a first round game, 15 seeds pull off an upset about once a decade. Will this be that time? Detroit is hot, having come out of the solid Horizon League, and they have a big-time player in Ray McCallum. And don't forget, Kansas lost a home game to Davidson earlier in the year, so they're vulnerable. Don't bet the house on this one, but if you're feeling uber-risky, maybe this is your play.

7 #13 New Mexico St over #4 Indiana

The Aggies have hit their stride over the last month, and face Indiana feeling quite confident. As good as Indiana was this year, they still were shaky on the road, losing to the likes of Iowa and Nebraska.

6 #11 Colorado St over #6 Murray St

According to the RPI, Colorado St is barely any worse than Murray St, with the 26th best ranking vs 22nd for Murray. In a sense, this is like a 6 seed vs 7 seed game by the RPI. The spread is only 2.5 points right now which shows you how close Vegas thinks this game is.

5 #12 Long Beach St over #5 New Mexico

According to most ratings (including the RPI and KenPom), Long Beach St is a top 40 team. They played an extremely hard non-conference schedule, but always seemed to come just short of the big upset. Is this the time they finally break through?

4 #12 Harvard over #5 Vanderbilt

While Vandy is appropriately seeded as a 5, Harvard arguably deserves to be a 9 or 10 seed. The Crimson beat the likes of Florida St and St. Joseph's earlier, and although they didn't dominate the Ivy League like many expected, the Ivy League was also better than most realize. So long as Harvard can keep the game at a slow pace, this should be a game until the final minutes.

3 #14 Saint Bonaventure over #3 Florida St

Florida St is a hard team to figure out. They've had great results against Duke and North Carolina, but yet lost to Boston College, Princeton, and Clemson. With Andrew Nicholson, the Bonnies have a player more talented than anyone on FSU.

2 #13 Ohio over #4 Michigan

Led by do-everything PG DJ Cooper, Ohio is a feared 13 seed. The Bobcats beat 7 top 100 teams, and MAC squads tend to fare well in the Tournament. Michigan was great at home this year, but no so great on the road. If the Wolverines aren't hitting threes, Ohio could pull off the upset.

1 #13 Davidson over #4 Louisville

Although Louisville won the Big East tournament, they seem very vulnerable here. Davidson not only beat Kansas on the road earlier in the year, but they only lost to 5 seed Vanderbilt by 4 points as well. Louisville wins by playing tight D, but because they struggle to score, they fail to crush weaker opponents and keep them in the game. This one could be interesting.

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