Game Predictions

Wisconsin vs Minnesota: Prediction & Fan Poll

Greg Mengelt — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 11:32:21 -0500

No. 22 Wisconsin (18-6, 7-4 Big Ten) AT Minnesota (17-7, 5-6 Big Ten)

Time: 7 p.m. (6 p.m. CT)

TV: ESPN

Location: Williams Arena in Minneapolis, Minn.

RPI Ratings

Wisconsin 31 (No. 5 Big Ten)

Minnesota 49 (No. 8 Big Ten)

Line: Wisconsin -1½ (O/U 112)

Wisconsin Players to Watch: G Jordan Taylor, 6-1 Sr. (14 ppg, 4.4 apg, 4.1 rpg); C Jared Berggren, 6-10 Jr. (10.5 ppg, 5 rpg, 35.4% 3s); F Ryan Evans, 6-6 Jr. (10 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 1.1 bpg). Taylor went 159 minutes without a turnover until he committed one with 12:43 left against Ohio State. He finished the loss with 12 points, six assists, three rebounds, two steals and three turnovers.

Minnesota Players to Watch: F Rodney Williams, 6-7 Jr. (10.5 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 57.2% FG); G Julian Welch, 6-3 Jr. (10.2 ppg, 2.7 apg, 45.3% 3s); G Chip Armelin, 6-3 So. (6.5 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 1.2 apg). Armelin is coming off the best performance of his career, putting up 15 points (on 7-of-11 shooting), five rebounds and three assists in 24 minutes of the Gophers’ 69-61 win at Nebraska on Sunday.

Storylines: Ohio State ended Wisconsin’s 6-game winning streak – and likely its bid to win the regular-season Big Ten championship on Sunday. Still, the Badgers are 7-4 in the conference after starting 1-3. The Gophers are 5-6 in the Big Ten after Sunday’s win over Nebraska and are hanging around on the NCAA Tournament bubble.

Keys: Wisconsin is 5-2 in true road games this season, including a 4-1 mark in the Big Ten, and the Gophers are 12-2 at Williams Arena this season, including big victories over Northwestern and Illinois in their last two home games. The Badgers are surrendering just 54 points and 36.9 percent from the field in conference road games. However, they have shot just 31.7 percent and have scored 52 points or fewer in their last two trips to Minneapolis (both losses). Wisconsin shots just 40 percent and was 5-for-27 from 3-point range in Sunday’s loss to Ohio State. The Gophers shot 54 percent from the floor and 41.2 from the 3-point line in Saturday’s triumph at Nebraska. However, they went 8-for-16 from the line and are just 17 of their last 30 at the charity stripe. Both teams have very balanced offenses. Only Taylor averages more than 10.5 points for either team. Minnesota has superior depth, going 10 deep comfortably. Five players off the Gopher bench average at least 10 minutes per game. Led by Armelin, the Minnesota bench outscored Nebraska’s 40-7 on Saturday. Minnesota is 14-3 this season and 79-38 all-time when it outscores the opposing bench under coach Tubby Smith. Wisconsin leads the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 49.8 points per game and it is second to Kentucky in field goal defense at 36.5 percent. Minnesota is third in the Big Ten in field goal percentage, connecting on 47.5 percent of its shots and 36 percent of its 3-pointers. Led by Ralph Sampson’s 1.3 blocked shots per game, the Gophers lead the Big Ten at 5.4 swats per contest. That’s 22^nd best in America. The Gophers are second in the conference with 16 assists per game (behind Michigan State’s 16.2), good for 20^th in the country. However, the Gophers turn the ball over a league-high 14 times per game (tied with Nebraska). The Badgers are the Big Ten’s best, committing just 8.8 errors per contest. Minnesota leads the “Border War” series, 94-85 over Wisconsin, including a 61-31 record at home against he Badgers all-time.

The Bottom Line: Minnesota’s height, depth and athleticism – particularly that of Williams and Welch – could be tough for the Badgers to handle. Throw the homecourt advantage and their desperation to stay in NCAA Tournament and the Gophers have an excellent shot at pulling off a minor upset.

The Pick: Minnesota 64, Wisconsin 59

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 58-34

UNC vs Duke: Prediction & Fan Poll

Greg Mengelt — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 03:03:06 -0500

NO. 9 DUKE (19-4, 6-2 ACC) AT NO. 5 NORTH CAROLINA (20-3, 7-1 ACC)

Time/TV: 9 p.m./ESPN

Location: Dean Smith Center in Chapel Hill, N.C.

RPI Ratings

Duke 5 (No. 1 ACC)

North Carolina 7 (No. 2 ACC)

Line: North Carolina -6 (O/U 157)

Duke Players to Watch: F Ryan Kelly, 6-11 Jr. (12.6 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 45.3% 3s); G Austin Rivers, 6-4 Fr. (14.5 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 2 apg); F Mason Plumlee, 6-10 Jr. (11.6 ppg, 9.7 rpg, 59.2% FG). Kelly leads the ACC in 3-point shooting, connecting on 29-of-64 from deep. He’s 10^th in free throw shooting (80.0), 10^th in block shots (1.1), 19^th in scoring and 19^th in rebounds.

North Carolina Players to Watch: F John Henson, 6-11 Jr. (14.3 ppg, 10 rpg, 3.2 bpg); F Tyler Zeller, 7-0 Sr. (15.3 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 55.2% FG); G Kendall Marshall, 6-4 So. (6.5 ppg, 9.8 apg; 1.4 spg). Henson leads the ACC and is 25^th in the nation in rebounding. He also ranks first in the conference and eighth in America with 3.2 blocks per contest.

Storylines: Of course, the biggest story is that it’s Duke-Carolina – one of the handful of rivalries that is meaningful no matter what the records are. And, as usual, the Atlantic Coast Conference regular-season championship could be determined by the Tar Heels’ and Blue Devils’ head-to-head matchups. UNC is tied on top of the ACC with Florida State at 7-1 with the Blue Devils a half-game back after Sunday’s stunning 78-74 overtime home loss to Miami. Duke or Carolina has won 36 of the last 58 regular-season ACC championships.

Keys: North Carolina leads the all-time series with Duke, 131-101 and has won seven of the last 11 meetings between the rivals. The Tar Heels are 60-32 against Duke in Chapel Hill. Wednesday’s game marks the 32^nd time in the last 65 meetings that the Tar Heels and Blue Devils are both ranked in the top-10 of the AP poll. Duke has won four of the last five meetings, including a 75-58 win over UNC in last year’s ACC Tournament championship game. They have also won eight of their last 13 trips to Chapel Hill. Duke has a plus-14.6 scoring margin in their last 14 games following a loss. The Heels are 23-4 in their last 27 ACC games. When the first game between Duke and North Carolina has been played at Chapel Hill, Duke is 4-0 on the road during the Roy Williams era. North Carolina leads the nation with an average of 84.1 points per game this season. They score an ACC-best 76.6 points per game in league play. Duke is second at 75.2 and leads the conference at 48.2 percent from the field (UNC is second at 47). The Devils have a league-best 39.3 3-point percentage. Carolina is fourth at 35.8 percent. The Heels have one of the best rebounding teams in the country. They lead the ACC with 46.3 boards per game and have a plus-11.6 rebounding margin. Duke is sixth in the ACC in rebounding margin at plus-2.9 and averages 36 rebounds each night. At 6.3 blocks per game, UNC leads the ACC and is seventh in the country. Led by Marshall’s ACC-best 9.8 assists per game, the Tar Heels lead the ACC and are fourth nationally with 18.2 assists per game. Duke is third in the ACC at 13.3. UNC leads the conference with a 1.4-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio and they are second with a 1.7-to-1 turnover margin. Both teams are poor free throw shooting teams, but especially UNC. The Tar Heels are an ACC-worst 65.1 percent from the charity stripe. The Blue Devils are 4-2 in true road games this season and they are 9-2 in games away from home. They are 4-0 in ACC road games. North Carolina 14-0 in Chapel Hill this season.

The Bottom Line: Yes, it’s a rivalry so anything can happen, but North Carolina is simply much better than the Blue Devils at this point.

The Pick: North Carolina 88, Duke 75

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 57-34

Syracuse vs Georgetown: Prediction & Fan Poll

Greg Mengelt — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 02:59:01 -0500

NO. 11 GEORGETOWN (18-4, 8-3 Big East) AT NO. 2 SYRACUSE (23-1, 10-1 Big East)

Time/TV: 7 p.m./ESPN

Location: Carrier Dome in Syracuse

RPI Ratings

Georgetown 13 (No. 3 Big East)

Syracuse 1 (No. 1 Big East)

Line: Syracuse -11½ (O/U 129)

Georgetown Players to Watch: F Otto Porter, 6-8 Fr. (8.4 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 49.7% FG); C Henry Sims, 6-10 Sr. (11.9 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 3.6 apg); G Jason Clark, 6-2 Sr. (15.2 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 50% FG). Sims is arguably the best passing center in the country. He easily leads the Hoyas with 79 assists this season, including 13 in Georgetown’s last three outings.

Syracuse Players to Watch: F Kris Joseph, 6-7 Sr. (13.7 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.9 apg); G Scoop Jardine, 6-2 Sr. (8.5 ppg, 4.8 apg, 1.4 spg); C Feb Melo, 7-0 So. (7.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 57.6% FG). Melo had 14 points on 5-of-6 shooting, plus three rebounds and two blocked shots in his first game back – a 95-70 win over St. John’s – following his 3-game suspension for academic issues.

Storylines: The Orange have won three straight since their only loss of the season at Notre Dame on Jan. 21. They have built a 2-game lead on Marquette. After five wins in its last six games, Georgetown is in third place, a half-game behind Marquette and 1½ games behind Syracuse.

Keys: After Saturday’s win over St. John’s, Syracuse has nine wins over 20 points or more this season. Georgetown made 15 of its 23 second-half field goal attempts in Saturday’s 75-45 win over South Florida, including four of its six 3-pointers. Syracuse leads the Big East and is 21^st in the nation in points per game at 78.1. Georgetown leads the Big East and is 15^th nationally surrendering 58.6 points per game. Syracuse gives up 60.8 per outing. The Orange and Hoyas are 1-2, respectively, in scoring margin. Syracuse wins by an average of 17.4 points per game, which is third in the country. The Hoyas are second – and 22^nd in America – at plus-12.4. The Hoyas are one of only five teams in the nation with at least four wins over top-25 teams this season. Memphis, Alabama, Louisville, Marquette were all ranked when they lost to Georgetown. Georgetown has held four of its 11 Big East opponents under 50 points. Syracuse has one of the deepest teams in the country. It has 10 players who average at least 12 minutes per game and all ten average at least 2.9 points per game. No Orange played more than 29 minutes in Saturday’s win over St. John’s. One of the few Syracuse weaknesses in rebounding. Despite out-rebounding the Red Storm 42-31 on Saturday, tthe Orange rank 12^th in the Big East in rebounding margin at plus-0.2. Despite a deliberate pace, Georgetown is plus-4.9 this season, which is fourth-best in the league. Syracuse is 15-0 at home this season. The Hoyas are 4-2 in true road games and 6-3 away from home this season.

The Bottom Line: It appears that Syracuse is far too deep and talented for the overachieving Hoyas, but Georgetown has been playing above its head all season. A win is unlikely, but expect the Hoyas to keep it close.

The Pick: Syracuse 72, Georgetown 65.

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 57-34

Iowa St vs Oklahoma St: Prediction & Fan Poll

Greg Mengelt — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 11:33:17 -0500

Iowa State (17-6, 7-3 Big 12) AT Oklahoma State (11-12, 4-6, Big 12)

Time/TV: 7 p.m. (6 p.m. CST)/ESPN2

Location: Gallagher-Iba Arena in Stillwater, Okla.

RPI Ratings

Iowa State 35 (No. 4 Big 12)

Oklahoma State 113 (No. 8 Big 12)

Line: Oklahoma State -1 (O/U 139)

Iowa State Players to Watch: F Royce White, 6-8 So. (13.5 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 4.6 apg); G Chris Allen, 6-3 Sr. (11.8 ppg, 2.4 apg, 36.4% 3s); G Scott Christopherson, 6-3 Sr. (11 ppg, 2.1 apg, 42% 3s). White was uncharacteristically quiet in Saturday’s 77-70 win at Oklahoma. The Cyclones’ leading scorer, who had scored 55 points in Iowa State’s previous three games, took and made just one shot as the focus of the Sooner defense. However, he did have a game-high seven assists, four rebounds and a pair of steals. White is the only player in the nation to lead his team in points, rebounds, assists, blocks (1.2) and steals (1.2).

Oklahoma State Players to Watch: F Le’Bryan Nash, 6-7 Fr. (13.2 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 39.8% FG); G Markel Brown, 6-3 So. (9.9 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 2 apg); G Keiton Page, 5-9 Sr. (14.3 ppg, 2.2 apg, 34% 3s). Brown had a career-high 30 points on just 12 shots in Tuesday’s win over 80-63 win over Texas Tech, and followed it with a 2-for-7, 7-point effort in Saturday’s 64-60 loss to No. 6 Baylor. Brown leads the Cowboys in steals (30), rebounds (121) and is second in assists with 47.

Storylines: Missouri, Baylor and Kansas at are the top of the Big 12 standings, where they were expected to be. But Iowa State is hanging in with the talented trio at 7-3, just 1½ games behind the Tigers and a game behind the Bears and Jayhawks. The Cyclones have won five of their last six, including a 71-68 win over Oklahoma State on Jan. 18. The Cowboys are just 4-6 in the Big 12, but they proved they can play with the league’s best teams with a 79-72 win over Missouri on Jan. 25 and a close, 64-60 loss to Baylor on Saturday.

Keys: Christopherson banked in a 3-pointer at the buzzer to give the Cyclones their earlier win over OSU. Iowa State shot 50 percent from the field and the Cowboys shot 49 in the earlier matchup. Page led Oklahoma State with 21 points and Christopherson had a team-best 17 for ISU. Neither team led by more than six points. The Cowboys led 66-60 with three minutes remaining. Since the head-to-head matchup, Iowa State is 4-1 and the Cowboys are just 2-3. Oklahoma State led the Big 12 in 3-point defense until Baylor knocked down 15-of-28 Saturday. Still, opponents shoot just 30.1 percent from deep against the Cowboys. They have held 15 of their 23 opponents under 30 percent this season. OSU has held eight opponents under 60 points this season and is 6-2 when doing so. The Cyclones are second in the Big 12 – and 33^rd in the country – shooting 38.5 percent from behind the 3-point line. They have made a league-best 8.87 3s per game. ISU is just behind the Cowboys in 3-point defense. They rank third in the Big 12, allowing 30.4 percent. OSU, on the other hand, is the Big 12’s worst 3-point shooting team at 31.4 percent. Iowa State out-rebounds its opponents by an average of 3.4 boards per game. The Cowboys are the Big 12’s worst rebounding team. They are out-rebounded by an average of 3.9 per outing. The Cowboys have made an incredible 47 of their last 50 free throws. In their last five games, Brown is 26-of-27, Page is 21-of-23, Nash has made 15 of 17 and Brian Williams is 20-of-23.The Cowboys are second to Missouri in the Big 12, hitting 74.6 percent of their free throws. That ranks 29^th in the nation. Iowa State is fourth in the Big 12 at 74.3 points per game and fourth in field goal percentage at 45.3 percent. The Cyclones haven’t won in Stillwater since March 2, 1988. Iowa State’s 7-3 Big 12 mark is its best since starting 8-2 in 2000-01 and it has won three consecutive league games for the first time since 2004-05 when it won seven in a row. Iowa State is 14-1 this season when it scores at least 70 points. OSU leads the all-time series with the Cyclones, 61-53, including 35-13 in Stillwater. The Cowboys have beaten ISU 12 of the last 15 times they have met. Iowa State is 3-4 in true road games this season, but it is 2-2 on the road in the Big 12. Oklahoma State is 8-3 at Gallagher-Iba Arena this season.

The Bottom Line: This game really could go either way, but the Cyclones have been the more consistent team, giving them a slight edge, even on the road.

The Pick: Iowa State 79, Oklahoma State 75

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 57-33

Kansas vs Missouri: Prediction & Fan Poll

Greg Mengelt — Sat, 04 Feb 2012 09:59:28 -0500

NO. 8 KANSAS (18-4, 8-1 Big 12) AT NO. 4 MISSOURI (20-2, 7-2 Big 12)

Time/TV: 9 p.m./ESPN

Location: Mizzou Arena in Columbia, Mo.

RPI Ratings

Kansas 8 (No. 2 Big 12)

Missouri 12 (No. 3 Big 12)

Line: Missouri -2 (o/u 144)

Kansas Players to Watch: F Thomas Robinson, 6-10 Jr. (17.5 ppg, 11.8 rpg, 53.2% FG); G Tyshawn Taylor, 6-3 Sr. (16.5 ppg, 5.2 apg, 1.2 spg); C Jeff Withey, 7-0 Jr. (8.2 ppg, 6 rpg, 3.2 bpg). With 15 points in Wednesday’s 84-62 win over Oklahoma, Withey – and the Big 12’s leading shot blocker – has now scored in double-figures in six straight games.

Missouri Players to Watch: G Marcus Denmon, 6-3 Sr. (17.1 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 2.3 apg); F Ricardo Ratliffe, 6-8 Sr. (14.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 75.1% FG); G Michael Dixon, 6-1 Jr. (12.1 ppg, 2.7 apg, 1.4 spg). Dixon carried the Tigers to a 67-66 win at Texas on Monday. He came off the bench to make 9-of-10 shots, including both of his 3s, hand out four assists and hit the game-winning runner with 31 seconds left.

Storylines: Kansas (8-1) leads the Tigers and Baylor (7-2 each) by one game in the Big Ten standings. The two teams will meet again on Feb. 25 in Lawrence.

Keys: This is the first time since 2009 that the Jayhawks and Tigers are meeting with first place in the Big 12 on the line. It is the 14^th time that the two sides have met while both were in the top 10. This could be the final Kansas-Missouri showdown in Columbia for a while with Missouri moving to the SEC following this season.

Missouri leads the Big 12 and is sixth in the nation at 81.2 points per game. Kansas is third in the Big 12 at 75.6 and is second in scoring defense, allowing just 60.7 points per game. The Tigers and Jayhawks are first and second, respectively, in scoring margin in the Big 12. The Tigers’ plus-17.4 is third-best in college basketball. Kansas is plus-14.9, which is 14^th-best. Missouri 377 free throws made is more than its opponents have shot (322). The Tigers shoot 77.7 percent from the foul line, which leads the league. Kansas is seventh in the Big 12 at 69 percent. After shooting over 40 percent from 3-point range in the non-conference, the Tigers have shot just 33 percent in Big 12 play. The Jayhawks got just five points from their bench in Saturday’s 72-64 loss at Iowa State. It was the fourth-straight game in which the Jayhawk bench has produced eight points or fewer. Kansas leads the conference in field goal defense at 37.7 percent but is last in 3-point defense, allowing opponents to shoot 34.7 percent from beyond the 3-point line. The Jayhawks are second – behind Kansas State – in the Big 12 with a plus-6.1 rebounding margin. Missouri is eighth at plus-2. Mizzou easily has the best turnover margin in the conference. The Tigers turn the ball over just 10.5 times per game, while forcing 15.9 errors. Their plus-5.36 margin ranks fifth in the country. Kansas turns the ball over 13.6 times per game while forcing 15.3 turnovers. The Tigers also lead the Big 12 with a 1.52-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. The Jayhawks are second at 1.17-to-1. Monday’s win over Texas gave Missouri 20 wins for the fourth-straight season. Kansas has a 171-94 advantage in the all-time series and has won the last five and 10 of the last 11 over the Tigers. Missouri’s last win over Kansas came in 2009, 62-60 at Columbia. The Jayhawks are 4-1 in true road games this season. Their only loss came a week ago at Iowa State, 72-64. The Tigers are still unblemished at home (12) and they have outscored their opponents by an average of 91-64 at Mizzou Arena.

The Bottom Line: Expect Missouri to shoot the lights out. If Ratliffe can offset Robinson, it will be an easy win for the Tigers.

The Pick: Missouri 85, Kansas 74

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 55-29

Purdue vs Indiana: Predictio & Fan Poll

Greg Mengelt — Sat, 04 Feb 2012 09:55:49 -0500

NO. 20 INDIANA (17-6, 5-6 Big Ten) AT PURDUE (15-7, 5-4 Big Ten)

Time/TV: 7 p.m./Big Ten Network

Location: Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, Ind.

RPI Ratings

Indiana 23 (No. 5 Big Ten)

Purdue 54 (No. 9 Big Ten)

Line: Purdue -4.5 (o/u 144)

Indiana Players to Watch: F Cody Zeller, 6-11 Fr. (15.2 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 66.1% FG); G Jordan Hulls, 6-0 Jr. (11.9 ppg, 3.2 apg, 48.4% 3s); G Victor Oladipo, 6-5 So. (10.2 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 48.6% FG). After a career-high 26 points in Sunday’s 103-89 win over Iowa, Zeller went just 4-for-9 from the field and scored just 11 points in Wednesday’s 68-56 defeat at Michigan.

Purdue Players to Watch: F Robbie Hummel, 6-8 Sr. (15.2 ppg, 6 rpg, 1.2 bpg); G Lewis Jackson, 5-9 Sr. (10.2 ppg, 3.9 apg, 3.3 rpg); G Terone Johnson, 6-2 So. (7.6 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 46.5% FG). Johnson had one of his best performances of the season in Saturday’s 58-56 win over Northwestern, going 6-for-10 from the field and finishing with 14 points. In three Big Ten road games this season, Johnson is averaging 10 points per game.

Storylines: The Boilermakers and Hoosiers are in the middle of the Big Ten pack, but little of that matters when the two teams meet twice annually. The good news for the rivalry is that – for the first time in a while – both teams are solid and appear to be NCAA Tournament-bound.

Keys: Indiana ranks fourth in the country in field goal percentage at 49.9 percent and is 18^th in scoring at 78.5 points per game. The Hoosiers lead the Big Ten and are third in the nation, making 43.8 percent of their 3-point shots. However, the Hoosiers have been inconsistent of late, scoring 103 points in a win over Iowa but a combined 106 in losses at Wisconsin and Michigan. Indiana ranks second in the Big Ten at the foul line. The Hoosiers make 73.7 percent from the charity stripe. The Boilers are last in the conference – and 308^th of 338 nationally – at 62.9 percent. Indiana averages 34.3 rebounds per game and out-rebounds its opponents by 3.3 per game. Purdue grabs 33.7 boards but has been out-rebounded by its opponents this season. The Boilermakers are second in the Big Ten in turnover margin. They turn the ball over just 9.4 times per game, which is second to Wisconsin nationally, and they’re second to Northwestern in the Big Ten in assist-to-turnover ratio at 1.4-to-1. Hummel has just 16 turnovers in 676 minutes and Ryne Smith has turned the ball over only 13 times in 609 minutes. Indiana averages 13.9 errors per game and has a plus-1.26 turnover margin. The Hoosiers average 1.1 assists to each turnover. Hummel is the only Purdue player who has ever experienced a loss to rival Indiana. The Boilermakers have beaten Indiana five straight times, including four straight at West Lafayette. Hummel was a freshman when the Boilers lost to the Hoosiers, 77-68 in Bloomington in 2007-08. Indiana hasn’t won in West Lafayette since 2006, when Purdue went 9-19 in Gene Keady’s last season on the sidelines. Indiana has won two Big Ten road games in four years under Crean – both at Penn State. The Hoosiers are 3-5 on the road this season. After winning their first two and three of their first four on the road, they have lost three straight road games in league play. The Boilers are 11-2 at home, but they have lost two of their last three at Mackey Arana. Purdue leads the all-time series 112-84.

The Bottom Line: Unless Zeller completely dominates under the basket, which he very well could, the home-court advantage should be enough to give the Boilermakers their sixth straight win over their in-state rivals.

The Pick: Purdue 67, Indiana 62

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 55-29

Wisconsin vs Ohio State: Prediction & Fan Poll

Greg Mengelt — Sat, 04 Feb 2012 09:53:24 -0500

NO. 3 OHIO STATE (19-3, 7-2 Big Ten) AT NO. 20 WISCONSIN (18-5, 7-3 Big Ten)

Time/TV: 2 p.m./ESPN

Location: Kohl Center in Madison, Wisc.

RPI Ratings

Ohio State 5 (No. 1 Big Ten)

Wisconsin 19 (No. 4 Big Ten)

Line: Ohio St +2 (o/u 114)

Ohio State Players to Watch: F Jared Sullinger, 6-9 So. (17.1 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 58.8% FG); G William Buford, 6-6 Sr. (15 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 3.3 apg); F Deshaun Thomas, 6-7 So. (14.6 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 54% FG). With 12 points in Sunday’s 64-49 win over Michigan, Buford is within one point of Jay Burson for seven place on the all-time Buckeye scoring list. He currently has 1,756 points.

Wisconsin Players to Watch: G Jordan Taylor, 6-1 Sr. (14.1 ppg, 4.3 apg, 4.2 rpg); C Jared Berggren, 6-10 Jr. (10.5 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 46.3% FG); F Ryan Evans, 6-6 Jr. (9.8 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 1.2 bpg). Taylor had a great all-around performance in Tuesday’s 52-46 win over Penn State with 18 points, five assists, three rebounds and a steal and carried the Badgers down the stretch in a key road victory. After starting slowly this season, Taylor has scored in double-figures in 13 straight games.

Storylines: The Badgers have won six straight and the Buckeyes own a four-game winning streak to take the top two spots in the Big Ten. After a 1-3 start in league play, Wisconsin is 7-3 and a half-game back of leader 7-2 Ohio State.

Keys: Wisconsin handed Ohio State its first loss of the season, 71-67 at year ago in Madison. The Buckeyes had an early 15-point lead, but Taylor scored 27 points to lead the Badgers back for the win. The Buckeyes later returned the favor with a 93-65 thrashing in Columbus. Ohio State leads the nation in scoring margin, beating opponents by an average of 21.7 points per game. Starting Saturday, five of Ohio State’s next nine opponents are ranked, including Wisconsin twice. The Badgers go to Columbus on Feb. 25. Lenzelle Smith Jr. is starting to become a factor for the Buckeyes. The sophomore guard had a career-high 28 points and seven rebounds in a Jan. 25 win over Indiana then scored 17 points and grabbed a career-high 12 boards in 33 minutes in Sunday’s 64-49 win over No. 22 Michigan. The Badgers have an advantage at the foul line, which could be crucial in a close game. The Badgers shoot 71.1 percent from the foul line, while Ohio State is 10^th in the Big Ten at 68.7. Both teams play stingy defense. Wisconsin is the league’s best – and the nation’s best – giving up 36.3 percent from the field. The Buckeyes are third-best in the Big Ten and rank No. 24 in America, allowing 39.1 percent. The Badgers also allow just 26.8 percent from the 3-point line, which is fifth-best in all of college basketball. OSU allows 31.6 from deep. Ohio State is second in the Big Ten in rebounding margin at plus-7.6; Wisconsin is fourth at 3.5. The Buckeyes lead the Big Ten in turnover margin (plus-6.2) and are third in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.4The Buckeyes lead the Big Ten in turnover margin (plus-6.2) and are third in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.4-to-1). Ohio State trails only Indiana in the Big Ten with 77.3 points per game. Wisconsin leads the nation, allowing just 49.5 per contest. OSU is 3-3 in true road games this season. The Badgers are an uncharacteristic 11-3 at home, but they have won their last three over Nebraska, Northwestern and then-No. 17 Indiana.

The Bottom Line: Wisconsin still struggles to score at times. The Buckeyes will have no such trouble with Sullinger dominating the game inside.

The Pick: Ohio State 72, Wisconsin 61

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 55-29

Florida State vs Virginia: Prediction & Fan Poll

Greg Mengelt — Sat, 04 Feb 2012 09:49:14 -0500

NO. 18 VIRGINIA (18-3, 5-2 ACC) AT NO. 24 FLORIDA STATE (15-6, 6-1 ACC)

Time/TV: 1 p.m./ESPN3, ESPN Full Court

Location: Donald L. Tucker Center in Tallahassee, Fla.

RPI Ratings

Virginia 41 (No. 4 ACC)

Florida State 26 (No. 3 ACC)

Line: Florida St -4.5 (o/u 116)

Virginia Players to Watch: F Mike Scott, 6-8 Sr. (17 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 58.2% FG); G Joe Harris, 6-6 So. (12.6 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 40% 3s); G Jontel Evans, 5-11 Jr. (6 ppg, 3.6 apg, 1.8 spg). Evans is fifth in the ACC at 3.5 assists per contest. He has six assists in Tuesday’s 65-61 home win over Clemson for his eighth game this season with five or more dishes.

Florida State Players to Watch: F Bernard James, 6-10 Sr. (10.5 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 2.2 bpg); G Michael Snaer 6-5 Jr. (14.1 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 44.5% FG); C Xavier Gibson, 6-11 Sr. (7.7 ppg, 5 rpg, 49.2% FG). Snaer erupted for 16 points in the second half of the Seminoles’ 68-54 victory over Georgia Tech on Wednesday. Flroida State’s leading scorer on the season finished with a game-high 21 points.

Storylines: Nearly halfway through the ACC season, the Seminoles and Cavaliers are in contention for the league’s regular-season championship. FSU is currently tied with North Carolina and Duke atop the conference standings at 6-1 and has beaten the Blue Devils and Tar Heels this season. After a loss at Clemson to open conference play, the Seminoles have won six straight. Virginia is a game back of the trio at 5-2. After a disappointing home loss to Virginia Tech (the Hokies’ only ACC win to date) on Jan. 22, Virginia has won three straight.

Keys: The game will be all about defense. The Seminoles and Cavs have arguably the nation’s two best defensive teams. Virginia leads the ACC and is second in the country, giving up 51.1 points per game (8.9 points better than Clemson, which is the ACC’s second-best). The Seminoles lead the conference and are third in the nation, surrender 37 percent to their opponents. Both teams allow less than 30 percent from the 3-point line. Virginia is second in the ACC (27 percent) and the Seminoles are third (28.3) in 3-point defense. Both teams are very good on the boards. The Cavs are second in the ACC with a plus-6.2 rebounding average and FSU is second with 38.6 boards per game. Florida State is eighth in America with 6.1 blocked shots per game and are 28^th with 8.9 steals per contest, which leads the ACC. Virginia is 5-1 in true road games this season, including wins at Oregon, LSU, North Carolina State and a 32-point win at Georgia Tech. Florida State is 10-1 in Tallahassee, including a 90-57 win over then-No. 3 North Carolina. FSU’s lone home loss was in triple-overtime on Dec. 30 against Princeton.

The Bottom Line: The Cavs are going to have a really, really tough time scoring. Expect Florida State to try to get out and run to create easy buckets and pull away for a big victory.

The Pick: Florida State 65, Virginia 48

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 55-29

Notre Dame vs Marquette: Prediction & Fan Poll

Greg Mengelt — Sat, 04 Feb 2012 09:46:54 -0500

NO. 15 MARQUETTE (19-4, 8-2 Big East) AT NOTRE DAME (14-8, 6-3 Big East)

Time/TV: 1 p.m./CBS

Location: Purcell Pavilion at the Joyce Center in South Bend, Ind.

RPI Ratings

Marquette 10 (No. 2 Big East)

Notre Dame 67 (No. 9 Big East)

Line: Marquette +1 (o/u 128)

Marquette Players to Watch: G Darius Johnson-Odom, 6-2 Sr. (18.3 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 2.9 apg); F Jae Crowder, 6-6 Sr. (16.6 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 50.2% FG); G Junior Cadougan, 6-1 Jr. (6.2 ppg, 5.5 apg, 1.2 spg). Johnson-Odom, who is the reigning Big East Player of the Week, had a career-high seven assists to go along with 14 points as Marquette defeated Seton Hall, 66-59 on Tuesday. Odom is shooting 39.8 percent from the 3-point line and has hit 30 in Big East play, including three in the victory over the Pirates.

Notre Dame Players to Watch: G Eric Atkins, 6-1 So. (12.9 ppg, 3.6 apg, 3.2 rpg); F Jack Cooley, 6-9 Jr. (10.7 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 59.4% FG); G Jerian Grant, 6-5 So. (12.7 ppg, 4.8 apg, 3.3 rpg). Grant leads the Irish in minutes played (766), points (280), free throws made and attempted (84 for 107), assists (105), steals (29), and 3-pointers made and attempted (34 for 93).

Storylines: After opening Big East play 1-2, the Golden Eagles have won seven in a row to get within a game of conference-leader Syracuse. Notre Dame has won three straight, including handing Syracuse its only loss of the season, and is the surprise of the conference at 6-3 after going 8-5 in the non-conference.

Keys: Marquette center Davante Gardner missed the Eagles’ last two games with a left knee strain. His status has been evaluated as day-to-day. Combined with the loss of starting center Chris Otule for the season, Marquette will have an incredibly small lineup Saturday if Gardner isn’t able to play. Expect the Irish to try to take advantage with Cooley and Scott Martin. Notre Dame ranks first in the Big East in scoring defense, giving up 58.2 points per game in league play. The Irish have given up just 49.3 points per game in their last three games – wins over Syracuse, Seton Hall and Connecticut – limiting those three teams to a combined 33.1 percent from the field and 24 percent from the 3-point line. Seton Hall’s 42 points were the fewest Notre Dame has ever surrendered in a Big East game and the Pirates’ 15 field goals made is the fewest the Irish have given up in a Big East contest. The Eagles are second in the Big East in scoring at 76.1 points per game, trailing only No. 2 Syracuse’s 77.4. Marquette shoots 35.3 percent behind the 3-point arc. The Eagles are No. 1 in the Big East, averaging 17.4 assists per contest and they are third with 8.9 steals. They rank third in turnover margin (3.96) and assist-to-turnover ratio (1.3-to-1). Both teams are strong free throw shooting teams. Marquette is second in the Big East at 71.1 percent; Notre Dame is third at 71.1. Notre Dame has beaten four AP top-25 teams this season - Syracuse, Louisville, Pitt and UConn. The Irish are second in the Big East and 12^th nationally with a 1.35-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. They lead the conference and are fourth in the nation in fewest turnovers per game at 10.4. Seven different players have led Notre Dame in scoring this season. The Golden Eagles are 3-3 in true road games this season, including victories in their last two games away from home (79-72 at Providence on Jan. 21 and 82-78 over Villanova on Jan. 28). Notre Dame is 11-1 at the Joyce Center with the only loss coming Jan. 14 against then-No. 14 Connecticut on Jan. 14. That loss ended the Irish’s 29-game home winning streak. They have won 95 of their last 102 home games. This is the 116^th meeting between Marquette and Notre Dame. The Irish own a 79-36 advantage in the series. The two teams split two meetings a year ago. Notre Dame beat the Eagles 80-75 in South Bend.

The Bottom Line: South Bend is a tough place for even the best Big East teams to play – and Marquette hasn’t won a marquee game away from home since Dec. 3 against Wisconsin, but the Eagles were very impressive in January and it should carry over to early February.

The Pick: Marquette 76, Notre Dame 67

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 55-29

Florida vs Vanderbilt: Prediction & Fan Poll

Greg Mengelt — Sat, 04 Feb 2012 09:44:46 -0500

VANDERBILT (16-6, 5-2 SEC) AT NO. 11 FLORIDA (18-4, 6-1 SEC)

Time/TV: 1 p.m./CBS

Location: Stephen C. O’Connell Center in Gainesville, Fla.

RPI Ratings

Vanderbilt 24 (No. 3 SEC)

Florida 17 (No. 2 SEC)

Line: Florida -7 (o/u 143)

Vanderbilt Players to Watch: F Jeffery Taylor, 6-7 Sr. (17.4 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 53.1% FG); G John Jenkins, 6-4 Jr. (19.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 44.1% 3s); C Festus Ezeli, 6-11 Sr. (9 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 50.7% FG). Ezeli is playing like the pre-season All-SEC center he was expected to be before missing the first month of the season. He scored 21 points in Saturday’s 84-77 win over Middle Tennessee and then scored 14 points on 6-of-7 shooting in Tuesday’s 82-74 loss at Arkansas.

Florida Players to Watch: C Patric Young, 6-9 So. (11.1 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 63% FG); G Kenny Boynton, 6-2 Jr. (17.5 ppg, 2.9 apg, 44.6% 3s); G Erving Walker, 5-8 Sr. (12.7 ppg, 5.1 apg, 39.8% 3s). After scoring just two points in Saturday’s win over Mississippi State, Boynton was big in Thursday’s 74-66 win over South Carolina on Thursday with a game-high 24 points.

Storylines: The Gators and Commodores go head-to-head for second place in the SEC. After Thursday’s 74-66 win over South Carolina, Florida is 1½ games behind No. 1 Kentucky. Vandy is 2½ games back at 5-2 in league play.

Keys: Florida has struggled at the foul line at times this season – shooting 67.1 percent for the season – including a 15-for-32 effort against South Carolina. Florida has won 15 of the 16 games in which they have led the at half. Jenkins has scored in double-figures in 55 consecutive games for the Commodores and 74 times in his career. He has made a 3-pointer in 42 straight games. Taylor is sixth in Vanderbilt’s all-time scoring list with 1,698 points. He trails Mike Rhodes by one point for fifth and Ronnie McMahon by 21 to move into fourth. The Gators have been winning with balance. They had three scorers reach double figures in wins over Mississippi State and South Carolina. All five Gators average double figure scoring and Mike Rosario chips in with 8.3. Florida has forced 46 turnovers in its past three games – all wins. That could be a big key against a Commodores team that commits 14 errors per game. The Gators lead the SEC in scoring (80.7), assists-to-turnover ratio (1.5-to-1), assists (16.7), 3-point percentage (40.8) and 3-pointers made (10.6 per game). Vanderbilt is third in scoring at 74.6 per game, third in field goal percentage (46.9). The Commodores are second to the Gators in 3-point percentage (39.8) and 3-pointers made (nine per game). Vandy is 4-2 in true road games this season, including impressive wins at Marquette (74-57 on Dec. 29) and Alabama (69-59 on Jan. 19). The Gators have won six straight overall. Saturday’s game will be their third straight at home and their fourth in five games at the O’Connell Center, where they have won 18 straight.

The Bottom Line: Florida has been really, really good at home, but the 36-hour turnaround from Thursday’s win over South Carolina will be difficult to overcome. Vandy went through it and didn’t perform well in a home loss to Mississippi State. This is a prime opportunity for the Commodores to steal a valuable road win.

The Pick: Vanderbilt 82, Florida 80

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 55-29