Game Predictions

UNC vs Villanova: Preview/Prediction

Evan Dorey — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 19:55:36 -0400

Saturday's later Final Four game matches the champions of the South Regional, #1 North Carolina (32-4, 13-3) against the East champions, #3 Villanova (30-7, 13-5).

Season Rewind: North Carolina came in to the season as the undisputed #1 team. While the Heels dropped from that perch after a tough week in early January, they've gone 18-2 over its last 20 games. The Tar Heels have been especially strong in the tournament, winning every game they've played by double digits, including a 21-point beat-down of Gonzaga and a comfortable 12-point win over Oklahoma. Villanova seemed set for a middling finish in the Big East after starting its conference schedule with a 2-3 record, but went on a strong run that saw it finish 4th in the standings. The Wildcats lost fairly handily to Louisville in the Big East semifinals, and were in some serious trouble against American in their opening round game, but then flipped a switch, pulling away from the Eagles and cruising through games with UCLA and Duke , and edging Pitt at the buzzer.

UNC O vs Nova D: North Carolina has the country's best offense, and when combined with its fast pace of play, it's no surprise to see that it's scored more than 95 points twice in its four NCAA Tournament games. The Heels are solid long-range shooters, but get most of their chances inside the arc, especially in transition. They also do an excellent job of holding onto the ball and are strong on the offensive glass, meaning that they manage to convert most of their possessions into high-percentage chances. On the rare occasions the offense has struggled, it's had trouble making three-pointers, an area that Villanova will have to control to stay in the game. Villanova's defense has been one of the Big East's best, a solid overall unit with no single specific strength. The Wildcats tend to get opponents to take a lot of three-pointers, and do a decent job defending them. They are also strong on the glass, and defend the inside effectively, but send opponents to the line often, which may spell trouble against Hansborough and co. They've also struggled against teams that shoot a high inside percentage and get back a lot of rebounds, which is another troublesome factor in this match-up.

Villanova O vs UNC D: Villanova has a solid, balanced offense that shoots well from all areas of the floor, competes well on the boards, and really prospers at the stripe, where it makes frequent appearances and shoots 75%. Despite this general strength, the Wildcats need to control turnovers to be successful, something that they've been reasonably effective at doing over the season. They shouldn't get too much trouble from UNC in this regard, as the Heels don't force opponents to give up the ball that much. The major weakness that Villanova can take advantage of is behind the arc. UNC is only average at guarding the 3-point line, while the Wildcats boast various shooters who can easily get hot.

Villanova Lineup: Villanova features an excellent inside-outside duo in 6-8 Dante Cunningham and 6-2 Scottie Reynolds; the two lead the team in every major category. Cunningham recorded double-doubles against both Duke and UCLA, and has shot over 50% from the field in the tournament thus far. Reynolds isn't a great shooter from the field, but does very well at the line, and definitely showed his ability to come up big during clutch moments in the Pitt game. Still, there are some worries based on his play in the tournament; he's been under 30% from behind the arc and has a terrible A/TO ratio. Corey Fisher is third on the team in scoring, and rescued a 7-for-28 shooting performance from the field during the tournament with an ability to earn a lot of points at the line, where he's shot an excellent 24-of-27. He'll need to keep getting there to help Villanova win in Detroit. Senior Dwayne Anderson is another guy who hasn't shot that well from the field, but is productive at the stripe, and he chips in with one of the team's best rebounding rates. Shane Clark also scores well inside, and can threaten from outside, as he did against Pittsburgh. Corey Stokes is Villanova's best three-point shooter, the only guy on the team over 40% for the season. He tends to be a hot-and-cold scorer, and is very dangerous when hot. Reggie Redding has been quietly effective for the Wildcats. He doesn't tend to get a lot of offensive chances, but took said chances well in both the Duke and UCLA games.

UNC Lineup: While there was a lot of focus last week on Ty Lawson's injured toe, it certainly didn't seem to hamper the ACC Player of the Year in his three NCAA Tourney games, as he shot nearly 60% from the field, and had an absurd 3.3 A/TO ratio. No player in the country is as efficient as Lawson, who can score inside and outside and runs the Carolina offense like clockwork. He's the best player left in the tournament, and Carolina's title hopes will be heavily tied to his performance. Tyler Hansborough leads the Heels in scoring and rebounding, and has been solid at generating inside shots and chances from the line without turning the ball over. A relatively poor game against Oklahoma shouldn't be too much of a worry, given he has no Griffins to oppose him in this matchup. Junior Wayne Ellington is another excellent scoring option who shoots very well and doesn't make a lot of mistakes. He had a long streak of double-digit games broken against Oklahoma, but will still be dangerous. Danny Green is a good long-distance shooter who tied a career-high with 7 assists against Gonzaga, while Deon Thompson doesn't chip in with a lot of offense, but is solid when called upon. Ed Davis seems set for a big performance; he may not be as renowned as the Heels' top players, but he has rebounding and block rates that put the rest of the team's to shame. His offensive game is still a work in progress, but the advantage he can provide inside is significant.

In Sum: UNC, who rolled through the Memphis regional, is peaking at just the right moment. They're small favorites to cut down the nets Monday night. Villanova certainly has the personnel to surprise, but will have to stay strong on the defensive glass as they were in Boston, and make a good percentage of threes to keep even with the Heels offensive juggernaut. I expect a fun, fast-paced game that sees UNC make a decisive run to pull away over the last 10 minutes.

Winner: North Carolina Margin: 5-9

UCONN vs Michigan St Preview/Prediction

Evan Dorey — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 17:33:30 -0400

The Final Four gets started Saturday evening with the home-state favorite #5 (overall) Michigan St (30-6, 15-3) facing the champions of the West Regional, #2 Connecticut (31-4, 15-3).

Season Rewind: The Big Ten regular season champions, Michigan St had a relatively poor start to the season, taking big losses to both Maryland and UNC, and while it was clearly the conference's top team, fell by double-digits to Ohio St. in the Big Ten tourney semifinals. Once the NCAA tournament began, though, the Spartans turned it on, edging USC and Kansas to make the Elite Eight, where they shut Louisville down to progress to Detroit. Connecticut, which started the season 11-0, entered the tournament on a two game losing streak, including that epic six-overtime affair with Syracuse. The Huskies managed to right the ship by the time the NCAA tournament began, having a dominant first weekend that saw them blow-out Chattanooga and Texas A&M, and looked very good in beating Purdue and Missouri in Arizona.

Basic Matchup: This game matches up a pair of teams that are awfully similar in their basic approach to the game; both play an inside-oriented offensive style, but really earn their wins on the defensive end. Connecticut is the better offensive team, as it complements strong inside shooting and domination on the offensive glass with frequent trips to the free-throw line. The Huskies can be turnover-prone at times, but in general do a good job of turning possessions into scoring opportunities inside. Michigan St may find itself having a lot of trouble containing the Huskies' big-man attack, as the Spartans have been only mediocre at defending the interior. While they will be able to reduce UConn's advantage on the glass, thanks to some of the country's best defensive rebounding, this probably won't be enough to keep the Huskies at bay.

The Numbers: Tom Izzo's teams have a reputation for being strong on the glass, and this year's Michigan St. offense is no exception, getting back 41% of its missed shots. MUS's problem is that there are often too many misses, as the Spartans shoot under 50% inside the arc, where the majority of their shots are taken. They have good ball movement, and won't be too prone to turn the ball over against a Connecticut team that doesn't press much, but will have trouble making shots against the Huskies' stalwart interior defense. UConn holds opponents to just 40% from inside the arc, and blocks nearly 20% of opponents' attempts, but the real talent of the team is avoiding fouls; the Huskies commit fewer than any team in the country. If there is an advantage for Michigan St., it will be on the glass: Connecticut lost both of its games to the nation's best offensive rebounding team, Pitt, and were pushed by a West Virginia team that was strong on the offensive boards.

UCONN Lineup: There are few players in the country that have the impact of 7-3 junior Hasheem Thabeet, who is one of the nation's elite shot-blockers, and averages a double-double. Thabeet takes handles his limiting scoring chances well, but often finds himself playing a small role in the offense, usually to the Huskies' detriment. Senior Jeff Adrien also averages a double-double, and while he's not as strong as Thabeet inside, he's got a lot more offensive upside, as demonstrated by his 23-point showing against Texas A&M. A.J. Price is the Huskies primary guard, and the only player on the team who is a consistent danger from behind the arc. Since returning in mid-December, Stanley Robinson has gradually rounded into form, and his averages of 15 points and 7 boards so far in the tournament show just what an effective interior option he's become. Freshman Kemba Walker lit up Missouri for 23 points, and his quickness makes him a dangerous weapon. Craig Austrie has struggled with his shot, but has occasional bursts of strong offensive play, as he did against Purdue.

MSU Lineup: Kalin Lucas may have won the Big Ten's Player of the Year award, but the player who will be key to Michigan St.'s success in this game is senior center Goran Suton. Suton led the Big Ten in rebounding, and while he's not the first offensive option, he was very effective in Indianapolis, where he averaged nearly 20 points over the two games. Lucas leads the Spartans in scoring and assists, and does a pretty good job of ball control, but his shooting is somewhat suspect, barely at 40% from the field. A big question mark for Michigan St. will be the play of Raymar Morgan, who has had a difficult season, and suffered a broken nose last weekend. If Morgan can chip in with some solid shooting and a strong showing on the glass (which he doesn't done all Tournament), it will be huge boon to the Spartans hopes. Beyond these three, a fairly deep group of reasonably effective bench players get a good chunk of minutes for Michigan St., giving Tom Izzo a lot of potential options. Sophomore Durrell Summers is the team's most effective long-range shooter, and has hit seven of his last 10 three-point attempts. Freshman Delvon Roe is a good inside scorer and rebounder who has had trouble finding a consistent level and struggles at the free throw line. Travis Walton is 6-2, and is a good ball distributor who leads the team in steals, while taking almost all of his shots from inside the arc. Sophomore Chris Allen puts up a lot of shots, but is just barely average at making them.

In Sum: Michigan St. and Connecticut play pretty similar styles, but in almost every area the Huskies have the edge. While Michigan St.'s ability on the offensive glass will cause UConn trouble, I can't see the Spartans defending the inside well enough to get the victory.

Winner: Connecticut Margin: 4-8

Evan Dorey's game previews & rankings are based on Elo Ratings and efficiency ratings. Elo Ratings are fairly simple, all teams are assigned an initial number of points, which is the same for all teams, eliminating preseason bias. Then, as the season progresses, when a team wins it gains points, and when it loses it drops points. The amount of points that are gained or lost depend on the level of the opponent (beating a cupcake gets you little, beating #1 will be a big increase), the scoring margin of the game (which is capped), and the game's location. To take a look at Evan's College Basketball Elo Ratings, visit his website or blog where he discuss the rankings, along with other statistical observations about big games and interesting teams.

Poll: UCONN vs Michigan St: Who Will Win?

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 11:34:30 -0400

Poll: UNC vs Villanova: Who Will Win?

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 11:30:06 -0400

NCAA Tournament: Friday Night Preview/Predictions

Shawn Siegel — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 12:48:04 -0400

So many games, so little time. CollegeHoops.net helps you out by cutting to the core of each Tournament game. Click on team names for stats, results, and more. "Matchup" links include helpful injury news, betting tips and information.

Sweet Sixteen: Friday

CBS

Arizona vs Louisville

7:07

Favored: Louisville by 9.5

Over/Under: 139

More: Matchup

Star Watch: Nic Wise has been on a tear in the tourney (25 ppg), but must limit his TO's against Louisville's pressure D.

Nutshell: The lone surprise team remaining in the tourney faces the #1 overall seed. Biggest Sweet Sixteen mismatch?

At Stake: A win here by Russ Pennell and he'd have to be taken very seriously for potential coaching jobs.

CHN Prediction: Louisville (75% certainty)

Looming next: Kansas/Michigan St

Announcers: Gus Johnson/Len Elmore

Watchability: Arizona's had an impressive run, but Louisville is a major step up from Utah & Cleveland St

Syracuse vs Oklahoma

7:27

Favored: Oklahoma by 1

Over/Under: 132.5

More: Matchup

Star Watch: Blake Griffin is averaging 30.5 ppg & 15 rpg in the tourney, and he still doesn't get enough pub.

Nutshell: The Big East & Big 12 have dominated the tourney so far. Only one can prevail tonight.

At Stake: Neither of these programs have made the Elite Eight since 2003 (the year Syracuse won the title).

CHN Prediction: Oklahoma (50.01% certainty)

Looming next: North Carolina

Announcers: Jim Nantz/Clark Kellogg

Watchability: Anytime Blake Griffin plays, it's a big deal. The close spread and the big stage set up a top-notch game.

Kansas vs Michigan St

9:37

Favored: Michigan St by 1

Over/Under: 138.5

More: Matchup

Star Watch: Cole Aldrich dominated the opening rounds (18 ppg, 16.5 rpg, 6 bpg), but Goran Suton is a more even match.

Nutshell: Compared to other Sweet Sixteen teams, these 2 legendary programs get surprisingly little respect.

At Stake: A win here by Bill Self would further cement his status as this year's true Coach of the Year,

CHN Prediction: Michigan St (55%)

Looming next: Louisville

Announcers: Johnson/Elmore

Watchability: Should be one of the best possession-by-possession games of the night, featuring solid play on both ends of the floor.

Gonzaga vs North Carolina

10:07

Favored: UNC by 8.5

Over/Under: 162.5

More: Matchup

Star Watch: Jeremy Pargo had a weak season for the Zags, but will his clutch game-winner against WKU propel him to a big night?

Nutshell: Gonzaga struggled to put away two mid-major opponents, not a good sign for a matchup with #1 UNC.

At Stake: The ESPNACC has had a dismal postseason.. and UNC is the only squad remaining.

CHN Prediction: North Carolina (75%)

Looming next: Syracuse/Oklahoma

Announcers: Nantz/Kellogg

Watchability: Even if UNC pulls away late like usual, this game should still provide its share of late-night entertainment.

NCAA Tournament: Thursday Sweet Sixteen Preview

Shawn Siegel — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 11:40:26 -0400

Sweet Sixteen: Thursday

CBS

Purdue vs Connecticut

7:07

Favored: UCONN by 7

Over/Under: 134.5

More: Matchup

Star Watch: JaJuan Johnson has been key to Purdue's early wins (18 ppg on 60% shooting). He'll have his hands full against UCONN's front line.

Nutshell: UCONN destroyed two lesser opponents, while Purdue squeaked by in two hard-fought wins.

At Stake: The last time UCONN didn't at least make the Elite Eight for three straight seasons was all the way back in 1992. Impressive.

CHN Prediction: UCONN (75% certainty)

Looming next: Memphis/Missouri

Announcers: Dick Enberg/Jay Bilas

Watchability: Two options here. A) UCONN Wins by 15+. B) Purdue wins a defensive slugfest that bores half the viewing public.

Xavier vs Pittsburgh

7:27

Favored: Pittsburgh by 7

Over/Under: 139

More: Matchup

Star Watch: Levance Fields showed signs of life against OSU after struggling against ETSU. Xavier has no PG to counter him.

Nutshell: Xavier beat two NIT-quality teams to get here, but is finally welcomed to the Big Dance.

At Stake: For all the talk about the rise of Pitt basketball, the Panthers haven't been to the Elite Eight since 1974.

CHN Prediction: Pittsburgh (70% certainty)

Looming next: Duke/Villanova

Announcers: Verne Lundqusit/Bill Raftery

Watchability: Pitt has yet to put away either of their opponents, which could cost them against a pesky Xavier squad.

Missouri vs Memphis

9:37

Favored: Memphis by 5

Over/Under: 141.5

More: Matchup

Star Watch: Who is Kim English, and how has the Missouri freshman averaged 15 ppg in just 23 minutes of tourney action?

Nutshell: Memphis gives up 57 ppg. Missouri scores 81. Something's got to give.

At Stake: An Elite Eight trip would be an amazing accomplishment for a Mizzou squad that couldn't even make the NIT in Mike Anderson's first two seasons.

CHN Prediction: Memphis (51% certainty)

Looming next: UCONN

Announcers: Enberg/Bilas

Watchability: Memphis has lost to the only Top 20 RPI teams they've faced this year. Will their big winning streak prove to be a fluke?

Villanova vs Duke

10:07

Favored: Duke by 2

Over/Under: 148

More: Matchup

Star Watch: Villanova leader Scottie Reynolds has been in a major slump (7 ppg in 3 games) and needs to break out.

Nutshell: A win by Villanova here would prove definitively that the Big East is far and away the best league in 2009.

At Stake: Duke has only been to the Elite Eight once since the 2001 Championship. A loss here would just prove the doubters right.

CHN Prediction: Duke (60%)

Looming next: Pittsburgh

Announcers: Lundqusit/Raftery

Watchability: (CBS saved what should be the most entertaining game for last. )

NCAA Tournament: Saturday Preview/Predictions

Shawn Siegel — Sat, 21 Mar 2009 10:29:29 -0400

Second Round: Saturday

CBS

UCLA vs Villanova

1:05

Favored: Villanova by 2

Over/Under: 144.5

More: Matchup

Star Watch: UCLA frosh Jrue Holiday (13 points, 6 assists) woke up for the first time in a month against VCU. He needs to step up again.

Nutshell: Two evenly matched teams, but the home-court could decide the game for Villanova once again.

At Stake: A shot against a beatable Duke (or Texas) team in the Sweet Sixteen.

CHN Prediction: UCLA (50.0001% certainty)

Looming next: Duke/Texas

Announcers: Dick Enberg/Jay Bilas

Watchability: (UCLA games are often methodically played, but there's a good chance for a close finish)

Maryland vs Memphis

3:20

Favored: Memphis by 9

Over/Under: 131

More: Matchup

Star Watch: When Tyreke Evans (15 ppg) was sitting against Northridge, the Tigers really struggled.

Nutshell: With wins over MSU and UNC, Maryland has proven they can step up in the clutch.

At Stake: Memphis still has many BCS-loving doubters after their dud effort against Northridge.

CHN Prediction: Memphis (70% certainty)

Looming next: Missouri/Marquette

Announcers: Tim Brando/Mike Gminski

Watchability: (I was less impressed with Maryland in Round One, and mostly just horrified by how bad Cal was)

Texas A&M vs Connecticut

3:25

Favored: UCONN by 10

Over/Under: 138.5

More: Matchup

Star Watch: Bryan Davis (21 & 9) had his way against BYU, but UCONN's frontline is a different beast.

Nutshell: After beating BYU in Round One last year, A&M put a scare (51-49) into #1 seed UCLA. Can they scare UCONN?

At Stake: If A&M could somehow top the Huskies, they'd matchup very favorably with either Purdue or Washington next.

CHN Prediction: UCONN (80% certainty)

Looming next: Purdue/Washington

Announcers: Enberg/Bilas

Watchability: (Not buying A&M's chances here)

Purdue vs Washington

5:40

Favored: Washington by 1

Over/Under: 139.5

More: Matchup

Star Watch: UW freshman Isaiah Thomas (15 ppg) must step up after shooting just 3-13 in round one.

Nutshell: The day's most even matchup pits teams who are ranked closely in the polls & the RPI.

At Stake: The Big Ten is off to a great start in this year's tourney, and win here would be big.

CHN Prediction: Washington (55%)

Looming next: UCONN

Announcers: Kevin Harlan/Dan Bonner

Watchability: (Odds for a nail-biter are high, but Purdue games are often painful to watch)

Michigan vs Oklahoma

5:40

Favored: Oklahoma by 7

Over/Under: 135.5

More: Matchup

Star Watch: In his last three games, OU's Blake Griffin is shooting 81% from the floor (29 of 36).

Nutshell: Michigan almost blew it against Clemson, but will need to focus for a full 40 against the Sooners.

At Stake: John Beilein teams have won at least 2 games in his last 5 postseasons (NCAA & NIT).

CHN Prediction: Oklahoma (60% certainty)

Looming next: Syracuse/Arizona St

Announcers: Brando/Gminski

Watchability: (Blake Griffin is always must-watch TV, and Michigan has proven they can beat top teams.)

Louisiana St vs North Carolina

5:45

Favored: UNC by 11

Over/Under: 158.5

More: Matchup

Star Watch: Marcus Thornton hadn't hit over 50% of his shots in 40 days before going off for 30 against Butler.

Nutshell: The country's best team faces a team that shot lights out in round one, and still barely beat Butler.

At Stake: LSU pride. A Tiger loss would officially end the SEC's dismal season.

CHN Prediction: UNC (90% probability)

Looming next: Gonzaga

Announcers: Jim Nantz/Clark Kellogg

Watchability: (You have to watch just to see whether and how much Ty Lawson plays..)

Western Kentucky vs Gonzaga

8:00

Favored: Gonzaga by 10.5

Over/Under: 143.5

More: Matchup

Star Watch: WKU is a team of 4 wings, and one 6-8 guy, Jeremy Evans. He'll have his hands full against Josh Heytvelt (15 ppg), who eats up teams with no bigs.

Nutshell: WKU was able to impose their tempo on Illinois for most of the game, but that tempo suits Gonzaga's style.

At Stake: A shot to play against the #1 team in the land.

CHN Prediction: Gonzaga (75% certainty)

Looming next: North Carolina

Announcers: Harlan/Bonner

Watchability: (Should be played at an enjoyable tempo)

Texas vs Duke

8:05

Favored: Duke by 7.5

Over/Under: 139

More: Matchup

Star Watch: AJ Abrams (Texas) came out of a 3-month hibernation, hitting 8 threes in Round One. He'll need a repeat performance.

Nutshell: The ACC has had a very bleak 2009 Tournament, and many feel Duke is ripe for the picking.

At Stake: Duke is becoming known for fizzling out early, while Rick Barnes and Texas have a reputation for losing big games. Something's got to give.

CHN Prediction: Duke (65% certainty)

Looming next: Villanova/UCLA

Announcers: Nantz/Kellogg

Watchability: (Must watch, especially if the game is close early)

Enjoy the games. Stop back at CollegeHoops.net tonight and tomorrow for post-game reactions!

NCAA Tournament: Friday Night Preview/Predictions

Shawn Siegel — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 12:09:33 -0400

First Round: Thursday Night

CBS

Arizona vs Utah

7:10

Favored: Utah by 1.5

Over/Under: 135

More: Matchup

Star Watch: Arizona relies on its Big Three, but Utah needs 7-2 Luke Nevill (17 ppg) to play like a man

Nutshell: Arizona shouldn't even be in the Tournament, but will cause a lot of problems for over-seeded Utah

At Stake: With BYU losing yesterday, Utah must save the MWC's credibility

CHN Prediction: Utah (55% certainty)

Looming next: Wake Forest

Announcers: Eagle/Spanarkel

Watchability:

Morehead St.vs Louisville

7:10

Favored: Louisville by 21

Over/Under: 132

More: Matchup

Star Watch: Morehead's Kenneth Faried (13 ppg) has been on a tear. The sophomore is legit.

Nutshell: Perhaps Morehead hangs tight early, but Cardinals have way too much talent in the end.

At Stake: Honestly, not much.

CHN Prediction: Louisville (95% certainty)

Looming next: Ohio St

Announcers: Lundquist/Raftery

Watchability:

USC vs Boston College

7:20

Favored: USC by 2.5

Over/Under: 135

More: Matchup

Star Watch: BC is 11-2 when Tyrese Rice (17 ppg) score 20 or more, including the UNC/Duke wins.

Nutshell: Two teams who accomplished virtually nothing in non-conference play.

At Stake: Whether USC's Pac-10 title run was just your run of the mill conference tourney fluke.

CHN Prediction: USC (55% certainty)

Looming next: Michigan St

Announcers: Johnson/Wenzel

Watchability:

Portland St. vs Xavier

7:25

Favored: Xavier by 10

Over/Under: 135.5

More: Matchup

Star Watch: Xavier must stop inconsistent PG Jeremiah Dominguez (13 ppg) from going off for 20+

Nutshell: Xavier's had a fine season, but their lack of a true PG is a problem with no solution.

At Stake: A loss by Xavier would be a huge blow to the Non-BCS conferences.

CHN Prediction: Xavier (70% certainty)

Looming next: Florida St

Announcers: Bolerjack/Wenzel

Watchability:

Siena vs Ohio St.

9:40

Favored: Ohio St by 3

Over/Under: 142

More: Matchup

Star Watch: Ohio St star Evan Turner (17 ppg) would easily average 20+ on a higher tempo team.

Nutshell: Siena, everyone's mid-major darling hasn't beaten a tourney-quality team all season.

At Stake: Whether Siena's SOS-induced high RPI is just a statistical oddity.

CHN Prediction: Ohio St (60% certainty)

Looming next: Louisville

Announcers: Lundquist/Raftery

Watchability:

Cleveland St. vs Wake Forest

9:40

Favored: Wake Forest by 7.5

Over/Under: 137.5

More: Matchup

Star Watch: In January Jeff Teague (19 ppg) was arguably the nation's top player. He needs to reclaim the mojo.

Nutshell: Contrasting styles as methodical CSU will try and slow down up-tempo Wake.

At Stake: A win by Gary Waters would be another huge slap in the face to former employer Rutgers.

CHN Prediction: Wake Forest (70% certainty)

Looming next: Utah

Announcers: Eagle/Spanarkel

Watchability:

Robert Morris vs Michigan St

9:50

Favored: Michigan st by 16.5

Over/Under: 133

More: Matchup

Star Watch: Everything RMU does revolves around senior Jeremy Chappell (17 ppg)

Nutshell: The Big Ten champs get oddly little respect, but should roll against the Colonials.

At Stake: Whether the Spartan doubters are in the right.

CHN Prediction: Michigan St (90% certainty)

Looming next: USC

Announcers: Johnson/Elmore

Watchability:

Wisconsin vs Florida St.

9:55

Favored: FSU by 2.5

Over/Under: 121

More: Matchup

Star Watch: FSU's Toney Douglas (21 ppg) has been solid all season, but most fans have recently jumped on the bandwagon.

Nutshell: Never count out a Bo Ryan team, but this year's Badgers seem awfully similar to the '06 team that lost in Round 1.

At Stake: FSU has a similar reputation to Clemson for under-achievement. Will the Noles choke out early like the Tigers?

CHN Prediction: Florida St (60% certainty)

Looming next: Xavier

Announcers: Bolerjack/Wenzel

Watchability:

Enjoy the games. Stop back at CollegeHoops.net tonight and tomorrow for post-game reactions!

NCAA Tournament: Friday Afternoon Preview/Predictions

Raphielle Johnson — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 21:18:49 -0400

While Thursday's afternoon slate offered much in the way of chalk, with nine-seed Texas A&M and ten-seed Maryland providing the only wins for lower-seeded teams, Friday may offer the surprises that fans crave. Games in Boise, Dayton, Miami and Minneapolis are on the schedule, with each locale offering at least one game in which the lower-seeded team can move on to the second round. Here's a quick preview of the eight games, listed in order by start time.

12: 15 EST (Miami): #3 Syracuse vs. #14 Stephen F. Austin (South Region)

The talk about the Orange not having much left in the tank? Much ado about nothing, given the fact that they've had five days in between the Big East Championship final and their first round matchup with the Lumberjacks. "I think we have our legs back; our energy is back, so I don't think that will be a problem," said Syracuse guard Jonny Flynn in today's press conference. Considering the fact that Jim Boeheim's team was on the bubble the last two seasons, only to be left out of the Tournament, they should be more than ready for the Southland champs.

As for the Lumberjacks, they make their first-ever NCAA Tournament appearance and will rely on a stout defense in looking to pull off the upset. Stephen F. Austin has to control the tempo, and they've got just the guy to do that in point guard Eric Bell (3.6 apg). He may just stand 5-3 but Bell is the consummate floor general (A/T ratio of 1.92) who understands what his job is: defend and get the ball to Southland Player of the Year Matt Kingsley (16.2 ppg, 7.8 rpg). Kingsley and Josh Alexander (14.5 ppg, 5.4 rpg) carry the scoring load for the Lumberjacks, but unless they slow the game to a crawl they won't have enough to deal with the likes of Flynn, Paul Harris, Eric Devendorf and Arinze Onuaku (just to name four). Syracuse moves on, even if they begin the game underestimating their opponent.

12:25 EST (Dayton) #8 Oklahoma State vs. #9 Tennessee (East Region)

This could very well be the most entertaining game of the day given the uptempo style that both teams prefer. With no big man of note the Cowboys weren't expected to play as well as they have in the first year under Travis Ford but here they are. The exact opposite may be said for Bruce Pearl's Volunteers, who went from preseason shoo-in to dominate the SEC to scrapping for a share of the SEC East. But in winning five of their last seven, maybe this experienced team can make a run in Dayton this weekend. Forwards Tyler Smith (17.2 ppg, 5.9 rpg) and Wayne Chism (13.8 ppg, 8.1 rpg) lead the way for Tennessee, but the man to watch on Friday is point guard Bobby Maze (8.3 ppg, 3.2 apg, 1.93 A/T ratio).

How well he handles the full-court pressure (and the man-to-man defense of Byron Eaton) will determine who wins this game. Eaton (14.1 ppg, 5.5 apg) is an outstanding, game-tested point guard who can harass opposing guards into errors. And Oklahoma State has a match for Smith in sophomore stud James Anderson (18.6 ppg, 5.8 rpg), a more athletic player who can get it done from just about anywhere on the floor. The winner of this game will get more from the supporting cast, but Oklahoma State lacks a solid answer for Wayne Chism. In a game that can go either way, look for Tennessee to move on to Sunday's second round.

12:30 EST (Boise) #6 Marquette vs. #11 Utah State (West Region)

Another game where the lower-seeded team winning wouldn't be much of an upset. Stew Morrill is one of the most underrated coaches in America, and his Aggies have already won thirty games this season. Forward Gary Wilkinson (17.1 ppg, 6.9 rpg), who at one time was a high-school dropout who didn't know what his next move in life would be, is the best player in the Big West and a big part of an offensive system that's hard to scout. Utah State's playbook is something that you rarely see outside of the NFL, allowing them to switch from one grouping of plays to another on a moment's notice (via flash cards). Guard Jared Quayle (12.9 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 3.7 apg) runs the show for a team that's arguably the nation's most efficient offensive club.

The Golden Eagles feature on of the most prolific trios in Jerel McNeal (19.7 ppg, 4.0 apg), Wesley Matthews (18.4 ppg, 5.6 rpg) and Lazar Hayward (16.1 ppg, 8.6 rpg). Marquette has lost five of their last six, coinciding with the loss of Dominic James, but what many don't take into consideration are who those five teams were (Connecticut, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Villanova) when evaluating the chances of the Golden Eagles sticking around. Buzz Williams may be coaching in his first NCAA Tournament game but he's got the horses needed to stick around. Maurice Acker has taken care of the basketball in replacing James; they don't need him to become James with the remaining scorers on the floor. The question is how well the Aggies play in their toughest test of the season; they didn't look too good last month against St. Mary's. The late-season swoon points this game in favor of Utah State, and that's the way this pick goes.

12:30 EST (Minneapolis) #3 Kansas vs. #14 North Dakota State (Midwest Region)

Kansas will play a virtual road game against the Bison, but will it really matter? NDSU has a pair of outstanding players in Ben Woodside (22.8 ppg, 6.3 apg) and Brett Winkelman (18.7 ppg, 7.4 rpg), and they could author an upset of epic proportions should the Jayhawks not take them seriously. But does North Dakota State have a good answer for the Jayhawks' Cole Aldrich (14.6 ppg, 10.6 rpg), the best of a deep corps of interior bodies? The one thing that could work in NDSU's favor is the overall youth of Kansas, but point guard Sherron Collins (18.3 ppg, 5.0 apg) has more than enough experience to lead his team through a rough stretch.

Both teams can score, but Kansas has more depth and that will be the difference. But North Dakota State is more than capable of hanging around and scaring the Jayhawks.

2:45 EST (Miami) #6 Arizona State vs. #11 Temple (South Region)

Two of the best scoring guards in the nation will be on the same floor in Arizona State's James Harden (20.8 ppg, 5.5 rpg) and Temple's Dionte Christmas (19.2 ppg, 5.8 rpg). The question for both teams is what effect Arizona State big man Jeff Pendergraph (14.5 ppg, 8.4 rpg) will have on the outcome. If he's assertive in the paint Sergio Olmos will have a tough time slowing the senior down. But if Pendergraph gets into foul trouble, or the Devils aren't diligent in getting him the ball inside, the Owls have a very good chance to send Arizona State home.

Herb Sendek's matchup zone could pose a challenge for Christmas, but he's shown all year that he can score against just about any defense you throw at him. His supporting cast, most notably Lavoy Allen and Ryan Brooks, has to play the way they did in last week's Atlantic 10 Tournament if Fran Dunphy is to win his first NCAA Tournament game as Temple head coach. An unsung hero for Arizona State this season has been point guard Derek Glasser, tough leader who seems to be right in the thick of the action for all forty minutes. If the game stays in the low-60s the Sun Devils will move on...but it won't. Temple pulls off the upset, gaining a little more respect for the Atlantic 10 in the process.

2:55 EST (Dayton) #1 Pittsburgh vs. #16 East Tennessee State (East Region)

No sixteen seed has ever...you know the end of that statement by now. The Buccaneers may own some upsets in their NCAA Tournament history but that won't be happening here. As good as DeJuan Blair (15.6 ppg, 12.2 rpg) and Sam Young (18.7 ppg, 6.1 rpg) are the question will be the health of point guard Levance Fields, who has been dealing with a nagging groin injury the past few weeks. ETSU has a solid backcourt, led by Courtney Pigram (17.6 ppg, 4.2 apg) and Mike Smith (15.5 ppg, 7.7 rpg), and they could be a problem for Fields when he has to defend.

But by the second half the man in charge will be freshman Ashton Gibbs, who can use the extra time to get prepared for a second round game should Fields be limited on Sunday. No disrespect to either of the Buccaneer guards or forward Kevin Tiggs (21.5 ppg), but the Panthers should take care of business.

3:00 EST (Boise) #3 Missouri vs. #14 Cornell (West Region)

The "fastest forty minutes in basketball" gets its first taste (Missouri style) of the NCAA Tournament, taking on the two-time Ivy League champs. Cornell isn't your stereotypical Ancient Eight "crawl it up the floor" team, but they aren't looking to turn this into a track meet either. Forward Ryan Wittman (18.5 ppg) is one of the best players you don't see on SportsCenter every night, and in guard Louis Dale (13.5 ppg, 3.6 apg) and center Jeff Foote (11.8 ppg, 7.1 rpg) the Big Red have an experienced trio to lean on. Cornell also takes care of the basketball, boasting a team assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.2 and that will come in handy when dealing with the Missouri press.

The Tigers have a pair of senior forwards in DeMarre Carroll (16.8 ppg, 7.3 rpg) and Leo Lyons (14.2 ppg, 6.0 rpg) who are more than a handful, and Wittman's going to run into one of the nation's best defenders in J.T. Tiller. Matt Lawrence is one of the better deep shooters in the Big 12, and the Tigers have nine players averaging at least eleven minutes per game on the season. It's that depth, a product of the helter-skelter style they prefer, that will send Missouri on into the second round.

3:00 EST (Minneapolis) #6 West Virginia vs. #11 Dayton (Midwest Region)

The matchup between the Mountaineers and Flyers is an intriguing one, with a lot of athletic players in the 6-5 to 6-8 height range on display. Dayton head coach Brian Gregory comes into this game armed with a long-term contract extension, but he's also got to figure out how to snap his team out of their current slump. The Flyers have lost four of their last seven, most recently in the Atlantic 10 semis to Duquesne. Chris Wright (12.9 ppg, 6.5 rpg) and Marcus Johnson (12.2 ppg) are spectacular athletes but as a team Dayton struggles from the field (42.8%, 12th in the A-10). Look for Bob Huggins to try and exploit that with a variety of defensive looks, including their 1-3-1 and point drop zone looks.

As for the Mountaineers a future star in the Big East has emerged in freshman Devin Ebanks (10.4 ppg, 7.7 rpg). Always solid this season, the freshman from Long Island City was more assertive in the Big East Championship and as a result was named to the All-Tournament Team. Adding him in with the likes of Da'Sean Butler, Alex Ruoff and classmate Darryl "Truck" Bryant makes West Virginia even tougher to contain. Dayton is one of the best defensive teams in the Atlantic 10 so it will be tough sledding for the Mountaineers. But their offensive efficiency will be the difference in the end; look for West Virginia to move on.

NCAA Tournament: Thursday Night Preview/Predictions

Shawn Siegel — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 08:58:09 -0400

So many games, so little time. CollegeHoops.net helps you out by cutting to the core of each Tournament game.

First Round: Thursday Night

CBS

Michigan vs Clemson

7:10

Favored: Clemson by 5

CHN Prediction: Clemson (60% certainty)

Over/Under: 138

Star Watch: Clemson has better overall talent, but Manny Harris keeps UM in games

Nutshell: Tigers underrated as a 7 seed and should be too much for Michigan to handle.. unless Harris goes nuts.

At Stake: The ACC's #1 league status

Looming next: Oklahoma

Announcers: Brando/Gminski

Watchability:

Minnesota vs Texas

7:10

Favored: Texas by 4

CHN Prediction: Texas (60% certainty)

Over/Under: 127

Star Watch: AJ Abrams hasn't shot well all season, but if he regains form, look out.

Nutshell: Minnesota is just one of many mediocre Big Ten teams the committee over-seeded.

At Stake: Another chance for Tubby to rub it in UK's face

Looming next: Duke

Announcers: Nantz/Kellogg

Watchability:

American vs Villanova

7:20

Favored: Villanova by 16.5

CHN Prediction: Villanova (90% certainty)

Over/Under: 129

Star Watch: Garrison Carr will need to hit at least 7 threes to give American a shot.

Nutshell: American is a dangerous team. Too bad this game isn't on a neutral court.

At Stake: Low-Major pride.

Looming next: UCLA/VCU

Announcers: Enberg/Blackburn/Bilas

Watchability:

Akron vs Gonzaga

7:25

Favored: Gonzaga by 13

CHN Prediction: Gonzaga (80% certainty)

Over/Under: 133.5

Star Watch: If anybody out there has found Jeremy Pargo's game, drop it off in Portland.

Nutshell: How Gonzaga fares against a well-coached Akron team could be a sign of whether this is their year.

At Stake: Mark Few's ability to cash in at a pristine BCS job

Looming next: Illinois

Announcers: Harlan/Bonner

Watchability:

Binghamton vs Duke

9:40

Favored: Duke by 21.5

CHN Prediction: Duke (100% certainty)

Over/Under: 137

Star Watch: Binghamton's DJ Rivera is a nice player.. but nice doesn't beat Duke.

Nutshell: Duke always kills mediocre to bad teams.

At Stake: Duke's growing status as Tournament chokers

Looming next: Texas

Announcers: Nantz/Kellogg

Watchability:

Morgan St vs Oklahoma

9:40

Favored: Oklahoma by 16.5

CHN Prediction: Oklahoma (90% certainty)

At Stake: Blake Griffin's clear #1 draft pick status

Over/Under: 136

Star Watch: If you don't know who Blake Griffin is, get off this site and return to PerezHilton immediately.

Nutshell: Morgan St has a couple nice BCS wins, but Maryland didn't have Blake Griffin.

Looming next: Clemson

Announcers: Brando/Gminski

Watchability:

VCU vs UCLA

9:50

Favored: UCLA by 8

CHN Prediction: UCLA (60% certainty)

Over/Under: 136

Looming next: Villanova

Star Watch: Eric Maynor is VCU's big name, but watch out for Larry Sanders. He's the key.

Nutshell: UCLA is coming off 3 straight Final Four trips.. and still gets zero respect.

At Stake: The legacies of Maynor and Darren Collison

Announcers: Enberg/Blackburn/Bilas

Watchability:

Western Kentucky vs Illinois

9:55

Favored: Illinois by 4.5

CHN Prediction: Illinois (55% certainty)

Over/Under: 125

Star Watch: With Chester Frazier out, Illinois needs Demetri McCamey to bring his A+ game.

Nutshell: Many (including Vegas), think this is going to be the day's big upset.

At Stake: The Big Ten being exposed for mediocrity

Looming next: Gonzaga

Announcers: Harlan/Bonner

Watchability:

Enjoy the games. Stop back at CollegeHoops.net tonight and tomorrow for post-game reactions!