Game Predictions

Syracuse vs Vermont: Preview & Prediction

Raphielle Johnson — Fri, 19 Mar 2010 15:40:01 -0400

Start: Mar 19 2010 - 9:40pm

Team Previews: #1 Syracuse-- #16 Vermont

Vegas Odds: Syracuse -18 Bet at bodog

Why Vermont will win: Marqus Blakely goes off and Maurice Joseph masters little brother Kris. And a little of that Brennan/Coppenrath/Sorrentine magic from 2005 rubs off on Mike Lonergan’s team.

Catamount to Watch:

Marqus Blakely, F - 17 ppg, 9 rpg, 4 apg

Blakely is one of the most skilled players in America, given his athleticism, offensive capabilities and he’s also a very good defender (three-time America East Defensive Player of the Year). If Vermont can get him going against the Syracuse zone things could get interesting.

Why Syracuse will win: The loss of Arinze Onuaku doesn’t affect them as much as people anticipate; new starter Kris Joseph actually played in upwards of thirty minutes per game this season. And the last time Jim Boeheim was adamant that his team would be OK: he was talking about Wes Johnson in the offseason. Think that turned out well.

Orange to Watch: Rick Jackson, G - 10 ppg, 7 rpg, 2 apg

With Onuaku out more of the load falls upon the shoulders of the underrated post player from Philadelphia. He’s go the muscle to give the Catamounts trouble but his most important jobs will come on defense and on the glass.

How it will go down: Vermont will hang around, likely until halftime. But in front of a largely pro-Syracuse crowd Joseph, Johnson and Andy Rautins will be the difference-makers for Coach Boeheim.

Betting Pick: Syracuse -18

Real Pick: Syracuse

Duke vs UAPB: Preview & Prediction

Raphielle Johnson — Fri, 19 Mar 2010 14:04:22 -0400

Start: Mar 19 2010 - 7:25pm

Team Previews: #1 Duke -- #16 UAPB

Vegas Odds: Duke -23 Bet at bodog

Why UAPB will win:

The big three for Duke all manage to go scoreless while Tavaris Washington, Terrance Calvin and Savalance Townsend lead the Golden Lions with the performances of their lives.

Golden Lion to Watch:

Tavaris Washington, G - 10 ppg, 5 rpg, 2 apg

He’s only their fourth-leading scorer but UAPB can ill-afford Washington turning the ball over six times as he did in Tuesday’s 61-44 win over Winthrop. To say the least: Duke isn’t Winthrop. He and Calvin will need to be on fire from the word “go” if UAPB is to stick around.

Why Duke will win:

No 16 has ever beaten a 1; you simply don’t pick something like that until you get visual proof that it’s happened. The big three will simply be too much for the Golden Lions.

Blue Devil to Watch:

Brian Zoubek, C - 5 ppg, 7 rpg, 1 apg

Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith are the known quantities for Mike Krzyzewski. But if Duke is to have any serious staying power in the tournament they’re going to need the seven-footer to play at his best. The hope here is that he gets his final tournament off to a good start.

How it will go down:

UAPB will ride the early wave of emotion but having played on Tuesday combined with going against a team that can shoot will simply be too much.

Betting Pick: Duke

Real Pick: Duke

Ohio St vs UCSB: Preview & Predicton

Shawn Siegel — Fri, 19 Mar 2010 13:54:57 -0400

Start: Mar 19 2010 - 9:45pm

Team Previews: #2 Ohio St -- #15 UCSB

Vegas Odds: Ohio St -17 Bet at bodog

Why UCSB will win: The Big West always produces pesky teams in the tournament, and UCSB's overall season makeup is similar to Montana, who gave UNM a good fight yesterday. Forwards Orlando Johnson and James Nunnally are high-level talents that happen to be at a mid-major school.

Gaucho to Watch:

G James Powell - 9 ppg, 2 rpg, 1 apg

UCSB is certainly going to need a 3rd player to step up, and Powell has the ability to pour in 20 points.. the problem is he only does it randomly, so you never know what you'll get.

Why Ohio St will win: The country's best player, a Big Ten title, a Top 10 ranking, 13 wins in 14 tries.. that about sums it up.

Buckeye to Watch:

G Jon Diebler - 13 ppg, 3 rpg, 2 apg

Ohio St always has the ace in the hole with Turner, but they're really at their best when Diebler is bombing from three. Often times, OSU's losses coincide with Diebler's bad games.

How it will go down: The only question here is how many Ohio St will win by. UCSB has gotten blown out by 20+ in their three hardest road games..at Cal, ASU, and LBSU. Ohio St will win big.

Betting Pick: Ohio St -17

Real Pick: Ohio St

Gonzaga vs Florida St: Preview & Prediction

Shawn Siegel — Fri, 19 Mar 2010 13:29:59 -0400

Start: Mar 19 2010 - 7:10pm

Team Previews: #8 Gonzaga -- #9 Florida St

Vegas Odds: Florida St +1.5 Bet at bodog

Why Florida St will win:

Florida St at times has played like a fringe Top 25 team due to their #1 ranked defense, and they've been particularly impressive in road or neutral games, so the venue shouldn't matter much. Gonzaga lost a home team against Wake Forest, who is similar in overall makeup to FSU.

Seminole to Watch:

Solomon Alabi - 12 ppg, 6 rpg, 1 apg

While Matt Bouldin may be Gonzaga's biggest name player, they're at their best when Elias Harris doing work down low. Alabi will need to be a force in the paint to prevent Gonzaga from scoring in the interior and forcing guys like Gray to hit outside shots.

Why Gonzaga will win:

Gonzaga's resume from start to finish is impressive.. not too many teams can claim wins over Wisconsin, Illinois, Memphis, St Mary's twice, and Cincinnati. With big Robert Sacre in the paint and Elias Harris up front too, Gonzaga has the size to match Alabi and Singleton. Plus, Bouldin is always solid in the backcourt.

Bulldog to Watch:

Elias Harris, F - 15 ppg, 7 rpg, 1 apg

Despite being a superb freshman, Harris has faded in recent weeks and has been a big part of the reason why Gonzaga's had some questionable outings. When he's approaching 20 ppg, Gonzaga's offense is twice as dangerous. If he's quiet, the rest of Gonzaga's offensive players are rather mediocre.

How it will go down:

One of only one or two games in the first round where the lower seeded team is ranked higher. Gonzaga's offense hasn't looked nearly as dangerous as it did early in the year, and FSU can really shut teams down. However, FSU hasn't won a tourney game in a decade, and I think that streak continues.

Betting Pick: Gonzaga

Real Pick: Gonzaga

Oklahoma St vs Georgia Tech: Preview/Prediction

Jeff Borzello — Fri, 19 Mar 2010 12:03:51 -0400

Start: Mar 19 2010 - 7:15pm

Team Previews: #7 Oklahoma St -- #10 Georgia Tech

Vegas Odds: Oklahoma St -1.5 Bet at bodog

Why Georgia Tech will win:

The Yellow Jackets were inconsistent throughout the season, but they have the size to give Oklahoma State a miserable time. Derrick Favors and Gani Lawal are future lottery picks in the post, and Zach Peacock can step out and shoot. Iman Shumpert is a talented guard.

Yellow Jacket to Watch:

Derrick Favors, F - 13 ppg, 9 rpg, 2 bpg

Favors came into the season as one of the more highly-touted recruits in the country. He is a powerful inside player who has the ability to dominate the paint, at both ends of the floor. He will need to control the post against OK State.

Why Oklahoma St will win:

The Cowboys have been solid all year, led by their perimeter-oriented offense. James Anderson might be the best two-guard in the country, and Obi Muonelo is a match-up nightmare on the wing. Keiton Page doesn't look like much, but he can shoot the three with consistency.

Cowboy to Watch:

James Anderson, G/F - 23 ppg, 6 rpg

Anderson was the Big 12 Player of the Year, and a player capable of going off for 30 or 40 points without batting an eye. He is an absolutely explosive scorer who has scored at least 30 points on five occasions this season.

How it will go down:

This will be a battle between Oklahoma State's perimeter attack against Georgia Tech's talented interior group. In the end, I think that the Yellow Jackets' duo of Lawal and Favors will be too much on the inside, and Shumpert will be able to score just enough to limit OK State's advantage at guard.

Betting Pick: Georgia Tech + 1.5

Real Pick: Georgia Tech

Michigan St vs New Mexico St: Preview

Jeff Borzello — Fri, 19 Mar 2010 12:00:15 -0400

Start: Mar 19 2010 - 7:20pm

Team Previews: #5 Michigan St -- #12 New Mexico St

Vegas Odds: Michigan St by 13 Bet at bodog

Why NMSU will win:

The Aggies come into the Dance on a hot note, winning the WAC Tournament. They have plenty of offensive firepower, led by the backcourt of Jahmar Young and Jonathan Gibson. The frontcourt also has three double-figure scorers, namely Troy Gillenwater and Wendell McKines.

Aggie to Watch:

Jahmar Young, G- 20.5 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 3.0 apg

The talented guard hit a number of clutch shots for the Aggies throughout the season, and he will be the go-to-guy again for New Mexico State. The Baltimore native scored in single-digits just once this season, and he will have to come up with a big game against the Spartans.

Why Michigan St will win:

Tom Izzo is a tournament-tested coach who tends to get the most out of his players at the right time. Kalin Lucas is one of the best point guards in the country, and Raymar Morgan and Draymond Green are solid down low. The Spartans have been here before and don't want to go home early.

Spartan to Watch:

Kalin Lucas, G - 15 ppg, 4 apg

Lucas is the key for Michigan State. He needs to control tempo and not allow New Mexico State to start dictating pace. Lucas will also likely take over late in the game if it's close.

How it will go down:

If Michigan State had drawn a better No. 12 seed, the Spartans could be a popular upset pick. However, New Mexico State was likely overseeded at a No. 12. With that said, the Aggies have the offensive weapons to stay in the game and keep it close. However, Michigan State's defense and experience will be the difference.

Betting Pick: New Mexico St

Real Pick: Michigan St

Texas A&M vs Utah St: Preview & Prediction

Shawn Siegel — Fri, 19 Mar 2010 11:12:50 -0400

Start: Mar 19 2010 - 5:00pm

End: Mar 19 2010 - 9:00pm

Team Previews: #5 Texas A&M -- #12 Utah St

Vegas Odds: Texas A&M -3 -- Bet at bodog

Why Utah St will win:

Utah's won 17 of 18 games, and the lone loss was a hard-fought game against a quality New Mexico St squad. Utah St doesn't run over you, but they're offense is machine-like: rarely turning the ball over and hitting a high % of 3's (2nd in the country).

Aggie to Watch:

Jared Quayle, G - 13 ppg, 6 rpg, 4 apg

After a somewhat inconsistent start to the season, Quayle has been playing well in recent weeks and is a key for the Aggies chances. He had a big game in USU's close loss to Marquette in last year's tournament and tends to show up in big games (ie, 25 in the WAC title game).

Why Texas A&M will win:

A&M's 9 losses don't look terribly impressive, but look closer and 6 of them are against Top 10 teams. The Aggies haven't had a bad loss all season, and finished winning 4 of 5, including a competitive effort against Kansas. A&M has quality on the inside & outside, and has a good enough defense to overcome cold shooting.

Aggie to Watch:

Dash Harris, G - 5 ppg, 3 rpg, 3 apg

After missing the last 2 games with an injured wrist, Harris returns here and helps round out the backcourt and take some pressure off of Donald Sloan & BJ Holmes. Harris isn't a big scorer, but his speed and defense give A&M a more diverse attack.

How it will go down:

Utah St's numbers are inflated because of their home dominance and the general mediocrity in the WAC. Away from home, USU's lone good win all season was at Nevada, and that took OT.

Betting Pick: Texas A&M

Real Pick: Texas A&M

Wisconsin vs Wofford: Preview & Prediction

Shawn Siegel — Fri, 19 Mar 2010 11:04:54 -0400

Start: Mar 19 2010 - 3:00pm

Team Previews: #4 Wisconsin -- #13 Wofford

Vegas Odds: Wisconsin -10 -- Bet at bodog

Why Wofford will win:

Wofford's won 19 of 20 of games, and the lone loss was at a quality Charleston team by just 2 points (ask UNC about playing at Charleston.) Wofford played Pitt to within just 3 points on the road, 12 at Michigan St, and 14 at Illinois, so they can hang with the big boys and those losses were before the Terriers got hot.

Terrier to Watch:

Jamar Diggs, G - 9 ppg, 3 rpg, 3 apg

Diggs, a transfer, started the season slowly but when he finally hit his stride, Wofford took off and hasn't looked back. While not a dominant outside shooter, he has a knack for getting to the line, which is a sign that their offense is clicking.

Why Wisconsin will win:

Wisconsin's beaten 7 tournament teams while Wofford's beaten 0. The Badgers are Top 20 in the country in offensive & defensive efficiency and do an extremely good job of preventing turnovers. Plus Jon Leuer is back and Trevon Hughes is the best player on the court.

Badger to Watch:

Jon Leuer - 15 ppg, 6 rpg, 2 apg

A breakout player this season, Leuer missed about a month of the season and is only getting back to 100%. Leuer is a good 4-5 inches taller then Wofford's bigs, and although he's the type of player that dominates with size, he still has an edge.

How it will go down:

Although Wisconsin has a very efficient offense, they don't push the tempo and this should allow Wofford to remain close even if the Terriers aren't particularly hot from the outside.

Betting Pick: Wofford

Real Pick: Wisconsin

Pittsburgh vs Oakland: Odds & Prediction

Shawn Siegel — Fri, 19 Mar 2010 10:52:36 -0400

Start: Mar 19 2010 - 2:55pm

Team Previews: #3 Pittsburgh -- #14 Oakland

Vegas Odds: Pittsburgh -10.5 -- Bet at bodog

Why Oakland will win:

Oakland's lost only 1 game since New Year's and rolled through the Summit League championship with double-digit wins in each game. Keith Benson is as good a talent as anyone Pitt has.

Grizzly to Watch:

Keith Benson, F - 17 ppg, 11 rpg, 1 apg

The 6-11 junior is a bona fide pro prospect and a legit force down low. Oakland can be successful without Benson racking up points, but they can't win unless he dominates the boards and creates havoc in the defensive interior.

Why Pittsburgh will win:

Pitt's beaten Syracuse, West Virginia, and Villanova while Oakland's beaten.. IUPUI? Some of Pitt's early hiccups came w/o Jermaine Dixon and the Panthers haven't had a bad loss since.

Panther to Watch:

Jermaine Dixon, G - 11 ppg, 3 rpg, 2 apg

Pittsburgh hit their groove this year once Dixon returned to the court in mid-December. He's not a great outside shooter, but finds ways to score. Not nearly as consistent as Ashton Gibbs, Dixon runs hot and cold.

How it will go down:

Oakland got crushed against all of their named opponents, and although I think Pitt is over-seeded as #3, they shouldn't have much trouble putting the Grizzlies away in the 2nd half.

Betting Pick: Pittsburgh

Real Pick: Pittsburgh

Clemson vs Missouri: Odds & Prediction

Shawn Siegel — Fri, 19 Mar 2010 10:51:31 -0400

Start: Mar 19 2010 - 2:45pm

Team Previews: #7 Clemson -- #10 Missouri

Vegas Odds: Clemson -1.5 -- Bet at bodog

Why Missouri will win:

Missouri comes out of a tougher league then Clemson, had a better league record then Clemson, and even beat an Illinois team by 13 that Clemson lost to. Missouri is very good at causing turnovers and Clemson has a bad knack for losing the ball.

Tiger to Watch:

Laurence Bowers, F - 10 ppg, 6 rpg, 1 apg

With Justin Safford out, Missouri doesn't have many bigs, and Bowers isn't 100% healthy either (wrist). Still, he's playing and will be key to helping shut down Clemson star Trevor Booker.

Why Clemson will win:

Clemson has beaten 11 Top 100 teams, and sports a highly efficient defense that's good at causing turnovers and preventing the three. Missouri is rather weak on the frontcourt and has no one close to Trevor Booker's capabilities.

Tiger to Watch:

Andre Young, G - 9 ppg, 2 rpg, 2 apg

Missouri is known for pushing the pace, and Clemson's guards will need to step up to the task. In Clemson's two end of season losses, Young had bad games (more TO's then assists and just 3.5 ppg).

How it will go down:

This is one of the tougher games for me to pick, as their makeup and recent form is somewhat similar (they even have the same mascot..) Ultimately, Missouri has some major edges statistically and their ability to force turnovers will come in especially handy against a turnover-prone Clemson team.

Betting Pick: Missouri

Real Pick: Missouri (this is really a toss-up game)