UTEP

Butler vs UTEP: Odds & Prediction

Shawn Siegel — Thu, 18 Mar 2010 03:06:17 -0400

Start: Mar 18 2010 - 5:00pm

Team Previews: #5 Butler -- #12 UTEP

Vegas Odds: Butler by 2.5 -- Bet at bodog

Why UTEP will win:

Considering UTEP was in the Top 25 heading into the last week, a 12 seed is simply disrespectful. UTEP won 16 games in a row before the loss to Houston in the CUSA finals. They've beaten 8 Top 75 teams this year.. and more impressively, 6 of those wins were on the road so. With Randy Culpepper in the backcourt, and Derrick Caracter down low, UTEP can beat you on the inside or out.

Miner to Watch:

Jeremy Williams, F - 10 ppg, 5 rpg, 1 apg

Players like Caracter, Culpepper, and PG Julyan Stone tend to be rather consistent, but you never know what Williams is going to bring. At 6-7 he has good size, and is at his best when he's getting to the rim and going to the charity stripe. He's been rather blah in recent games and needs to step up.

Why Butler will win:

As impressive as UTEP's 16-game winning streak was, Butler counters with a 20-game winning streak of their own. Unlike UTEP, Butler is no stranger to the big dance and has played bigger games this year against the likes of OSU, Xavier, Clemson, and Georgetown (splitting those games). Butler arguably should have been a 3 or 4 seed instead of a 5.

Bulldog to Watch:

Shelvin Mack, G - 14 ppg, 4 rpg, 3 apg

It seems like Gordon Hayward and Matt Howard get more pub, but you don't see as many players who are as rock solid as Mack. He can handle, he can pass, he can shoot the 3, he can play good D.

How it will go down:

Both of these teams got screwed in seeding. This is more like a Sweet Sixteen game that happens to be in the first round. For all of Butler's success this year, their performance against Tourney-qualityish teams was rather blah, losing to Minnesota, Clemson, Georgetown, UAB, only beating Xavier at home by 1, and struggling to put away an OSU team that didn't have Evan Turner.

Betting Pick: UTEP

Real Pick: UTEP (This is basically a pick'em game to me. But if you're in a pool with bonus upset points, UTEP is a no-brainer)

West Region Preview & Predictions

Raphielle Johnson — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 08:49:02 -0400

While injuries in recent seasons have dropped a team a seed line few have hovered over a region like the right quadriceps injury to Syracuse center Arinze Onuaku. The Orange were rightfully rewarded for their overall body of work, giving them a one seed. However, how much were the penalized for the fifth-year senior’s injury? Thought by many to be a lock along with Kansas and Kentucky, Syracuse was actually slipped in behind Duke and all the way out to Salt Lake City. Essentially boasting a seven-man rotation with a healthy Onuaku, what happens if he (according to some reports) can’t go the opening weekend?

Do they go small or hope that DaShonte Riley and/or James Southerland can give them something of consequence? They will be tested early, most likely as soon as the second round with a matchup against either Gonzaga or Florida State. Both teams have bodies up front that they can throw at the Orange in attempts of taking advantage of the top-seed’s overall lack of depth. But you’ve still got to account for the likes of Wes Johnson, Andy Rautins, Rick Jackson and the bench combo of Scoop Jardine and Kris Joseph. Some may have been quick to jump off the Syracuse bandwagon in light of their loss to Georgetown and Arinze’s injury, but this is still a talented club with a coach who’s won more than 800 games.

Kansas St and Pittsburgh are next in line when it comes to seeding; the Wildcats have one of the most explosive backcourts in the nation (Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente) as well as a deep frontcourt. Pittsburgh bowed out of the Big East Tournament in the quarterfinals but this is not a team to underestimate; Jamie Dixon’s club used the preseason prediction of tenth as motivation to finish second in the nation’s toughest conference. Ashton Gibbs and Jermaine Dixon will need to lead the way but Gary McGhee will have his hands full with Oakland’s Keith Benson, a legit NBA prospect, in the opening round.

Vanderbilt (Murray State) and Butler (UTEP) have first round matchups that could very well result in both going home early. Billy Kennedy’s Racers were the first team to thirty wins on the season and features a high-octane offense where six players average ten points per game, making it extremely difficult to focus on one or two guys to slow down. And UTEP had to sweat on Selection Sunday, despite entering the week in the Top 25, but Tony Barbee’s got a team that could make a run all the way to the second weekend.

Randy Culpepper is an explosive guard that could give Butler fits and Derrick Caracter has the offensive skill and physical bulk to get Matt Howard into foul trouble. But they’ll need Arnett Moultrie and Jeremy Williams to play well up front in order to knock off Gordon Hayward and company. Brad Stevens’ club is tough and thanks to their non-conference schedule more than ready for any challenge they could face. But once again: Howard must stay out of foul trouble. Be it UTEP or possible matchups down the line against Vanderbilt and Syracuse, the Bulldogs will need Howard on the floor in order to be successful.

Other teams to keep tabs on include BYU (if they find a way to win two games they’d be playing a virtual home game in Salt Lake City in the Sweet 16), Xavier (Chris Mack’s team has experience and a solid rotation featuring Jason Love and A10 Player of the Year Jordan Crawford), and a pair of bubble teams that either played their way in (Minnesota) or held their breath until their name showed up on the TV screen (Florida, perhaps the tournament’s lone bubble surpruse). But for all the players who will be featured in the West Regional, it will likely be a right quad that paints the picture of this region in regards to who wins it.

Predictions

West Champion: Syracuse

Sweet 16: UTEP, Xavier and Kansas State

Best 1st Round Game: #12 UTEP vs. #5 Butler

1st Round Upset Possibility: #13 Murray State over #4 Vanderbilt

Scary Underachiever: #11 Minnesota

Sweet 16 “Crasher”: UTEP

Players who can shoot their team to an upset:

G Jimmer Fredette (BYU), G Randy Culpepper (UTEP), G Steven Gray (Gonzaga), F Elias Harris (Gonzaga)

All-Regional Team:

G Jimmer Fredette (BYU), G Jacob Pullen (Kansas State), F Elias Harris (Gonzaga), F Wes Johnson (Syracuse), F Gordon Hayward (Butler)

Poll: Most Likely 12 vs 5 Upset?

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 02:19:10 -0400

UTEP 2010 NCAA Tournament Capsule

Joel Welser — Sun, 14 Mar 2010 11:31:04 -0400

UTEP Miners

Conference USA (26-6, 15-1)

Big Wins: 1/20 at Memphis (72-67), 1/30 at UAB (74-65), 3/6 UAB (52-50)

Bad Losses: 1/3 at Texas Tech (78-86), 1/13 at Houston (65-75), 3/13 vs Houston (73-81)

Last NCAA Appearance: 2004, First Round loss to Maryland

Coach: Tony Barbee (First NCAA appearance)

Why They Can Surprise:

UTEP will not slow down the tempo, but they make it extremely difficult for the opposition to get easy buckets. That is mostly due to the imposing duo of Derrick Caracter and Arnett Moultrie under the basket. While neither are great shot blockers, they are both big guys. Caracter is 6-9 and 275 pounds and Moultrie stands at 6-11 and 225 pounds. Getting to the basket is never easy with those two hanging out in the paint. But Caracter and Moultrie are about a lot more than defense. Caracter is a double-double machine and Moultrie can almost keep up with Caracter’s numbers and averages 13.8 points and 8.0 rebounds.

The depth in the paint makes matters even worse. While Claude Britten is not known for his defense, the crafty lefty is a good scorer and is at least just as intimidating under the basket at 6-11 and 270 pounds. Jeremy Williams can fill in some minutes at the four spot when necessary and does a great job on the boards. He is also a superb athlete who is not afraid to attack the basket and has enough of an outside shot to at keep the opposition honest.

Why They Can Disappoint:

But Williams is not a good shooter and most of the team falls into the same category. Randy Culpepper is a great scorer and averages 18.0 points per game, but he is only shooting 36.9 percent from beyond the arc. Culpepper will have the ball in his hands when the team needs a big bucket, but he is much more efficient inside the arc than he is outside. Christian Polk is the best outside shooter on the team and connects on 37.5 percent of his long range attempts. If Polk’s shot is not falling, the Miners become a much easier team to defend since their outside shooting would then fall to Myron Strong or Julyan Stone and neither of those players are reliable shooters whatsoever.

Who To Watch:

Stone, however, is not on the floor for his shooting abilities, or lack there of. Stone is the man who makes this offense tick and he dishes out 5.4 assists per game. What makes Stone such an intriguing player is his 6-6 frame. He can handle the ball as well as any point guard, but his size allows him to see the floor much better than most. While he is not much of a scorer, he does a great job setting up his teammates and will use his size to provide UTEP with some much needed help on the glass.

Probable Starters:

Julyan Stone, Junior, Guard, 6.1 ppg, 5.4 apg, 5.1 rpg

Randy Culpepper, Junior, Guard, 18.0 ppg, 1.9 apg, 1.8 spg

Jeremy Williams, Junior, Forward, 10.1 ppg, 4.7 rpg

Derrick Caracter, Junior, Forward, 13.8 ppg, 8.0 rpg

Arnett Moultrie, Sophomore, Forward, 10.1 ppg, 6.8 rpg

Key Roleplayers:

Claude Britten, Junior, Center, 5.0 ppg, 2.2 rpg

Christian Polk, Junior, Guard, 9.6 ppg, 1.9 apg

Myron Strong, Junior, Guard, 3.2 ppg, 2.0 apg

By the Numbers:

Scoring Offense: 75.9 (42^nd in nation, 3^rd in conference)

Scoring Defense: 64.1 (65, 3)

Field-Goal Percentage: 47.3 (32, 2)

Field-Goal Defense: 38.8 (14, 1)

Three-Point Field Goals Per Game: 6.4 (151, 4)

Three-Point Field-Goal Percentage: 35.4 (106, 3)

Free-Throw Percentage: 66.6 (246, 11)

Rebound Margin: 0.6 (172, 7)

Assists Per Game: 15.1 (43, 2)

Turnovers Per Game: 13.2 (127, 5)

Follow Joel Welser's Postseason Capsules & College Basketball Previews on Twitter @Joel_Welser and on his Facebook page. Joel will be back in June for his annual Top 144 Teams in 144 Days preview on CollegeHoops.net

+ NCAA Basketball Tournament

• 2010 NCAA Tournament Coverage

• NCAA Tournament Capsules

• NIT Capsules

• NCAA Tournament Schedule

• Venue Info & Tickets

• Bracketology

2010 CollegeHoops.net High-Major All-Americans

CHN — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 11:41:56 -0500

Talk about making an impact. Darington Hobson's first season of D1 basketball was certainly a memorable one. The CollegeHoops.net High-Major Player of the Year led New Mexico to an MWC title by averaging 16.2 ppg, 9.3 rpg, and 4.5 apg. He's joined on the High-Major First Team by guards Jordan Crawford, Jimmer Fredette, and Randy Culpepper, as well as WAC Player of the Year Luke Babbitt.

There are very few seniors on this year's High-Major All-America teams, meaning we should be in for a treat next year. Teams with multiple All-Americans include Gonzaga (Matt Bouldin & Elias Harris), New Mexico (Hobson & Roman Martinez), and UTEP (Culpepper & Derrick Caracter.)

CollegeHoops.net High-Major Player of the Year:

Darington Hobson, New Mexico, Jr

CollegeHoops.net First-Team High-Major All-America
G Jordan Crawford, Xavier, So
G Jimmer Fredette, BYU, Jr

G Randy Culpepper, UTEP, Jr
F Darington Hobson, New Mexico, Jr
F Luke Babbitt, Nevada, So

Second-Team High-Major All-America
G Matt Bouldin, Gonzaga, Sr
G Elliot Williams, Memphis, So
G Kevin Anderson, Richmond, Jr
F Aubrey Coleman, Houston, Sr

F Omar Samhan, Saint Mary's, Sr

Third-Team High-Major All-America
G Juan Fernandez, Temple, So
G Tre'von Willis, UNLV, Jr
G Jahmar Young, NMSU, Jr
F Derrick Caracter, UTEP, Jr
F Chris Wright, Dayton, Jr

Fourth-Team High-Major All-America
G Adrian Oliver, San Jose St, Jr
G Roman Martinez, New Mexico, Sr
F Elias Harris, Gonzaga, Fr
F Tai Wesley, Utah St, Jr

F Hassan Whiteside, Marshall, Fr

Honorable Mention

TJ Campbell, Portland
Osiris Eldridge, Illinois St
Jackson Emery, BYU
Dairese Gary, New Mexico

Paul George, Fresno St

Kyle Gibson, Louisiana Tech
David Gonzalvez, Richmond
Rodney Green, La Salle
Adam Koch, Northern Iowa

Jerome Jordan, Tulsa
Kawhi Leonard, San Diego St

Dior Lowhorn, San Francisco

Mickey McConnell, Saint Mary's

Elijah Millsap, UAB
Dinma Odiakosa, Illinois St

Jared Quayle, Utah St
Damian Saunders, Duquesne

Ben Uzoh, Tulsa

Check back tomorrow for our Mid-Major All-America Teams.

Also: National All-Americans

Poll: Who Will Win the CUSA Tournament?

Shawn Siegel — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 10:26:04 -0500

Conference USA: All-Conference Teams

Press Release — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 10:02:00 -0500

IRVING, Texas - Players from five different schools are represented on the 2010 All-Conference USA men's basketball first-team, featuring three repeat all-conference selections and two newcomers. Seniors Aubrey Coleman of Houston and Ben Uzoh of Tulsa are joined by juniors Elijah Millsap of UAB and Randy Culpepper of UTEP, along with sophomore Elliot Williams of Memphis. All five players are guards. Voting on the awards was done by the C-USA head coaches and media members in each conference city.

Coleman is a repeat first-team selection and has been the nation's leading scorer this season, averaging 26.0 points per game. The guard from Houston, Texas, scored 420 points during the conference regular season, the second-highest total in league history. Coleman, who has led UH in scoring in all but one game this season, enters this week's GMC Sierra C-USA Men's Basketball Championship with 1,400 points during his two years at UH. He was named C-USA Player of the Week five times this season.

Uzoh, a two-time second-team all-conference selection, leads Tulsa in scoring this season at 15.4 points per game, while adding 4.7 rebounds per game and 45 three-pointers made. He has moved into the top 10 in C-USA history in scoring, ranking seventh with 1,895 points. Uzoh is just the sixth player in Tulsa to history to score at least 400 points in three consecutive seasons.

Culpepper made the jump from the all-conference third team to the first team as he helped guide UTEP to its first C-USA title with a 15-1 league record. The junior from Memphis, Tenn., enters the C-USA Championship ranked third in C-USA in scoring at 18.1 points per game. Culpepper has led the Miners in scoring 14 times this season and has moved up fourth place in scoring all-time at UTEP with 1,597 points. He has topped the 30-point mark three times this year, including 45 points against East Carolina on Feb. 13, the most by any C-USA player this season and tied for second-most in league history.

Millsap burst onto the scene for UAB this season, averaging 16.0 points per game (fifth in C-USA), while leading the league in rebounding (9.3) from his guard position. He is one of only two guards to rank among the top 40 players in rebounding in Division I. Millsap, the brother of Utah Jazz star Paul Millsap, tops the conference in double-doubles with 15 (second-most in UAB history).

Williams has scored in double figures in 29 of 31 games this season and is currently averaging 18.5 points per game. He has topped the 20-point mark on 16 occasions, the fourth-highest single-season total in Tiger history. Williams also ranks in C-USA's top 10 in assists per game (3.8) and three-point field goals made (56).

The second team is comprised completely of forwards and centers. Marshall senior Tyler Wilkerson and freshman Hassan Whiteside (the only freshman all-conference selection) are joined by Southern Miss junior Gary Flowers, UTEP junior Derrick Caracter and Tulsa senior Jerome Jordan on the second unit.

SMU placed two student-athletes on the all-conference third team in junior forward Papa Dia and senior guard Derek Williams. The pair was joined by Memphis sophomore swingman Wesley Witherspoon and junior guards Brock Young of East Carolina and Aaron Johnson of UAB.

These 15 All-Conference players will be in action at this week's GMC Sierra C-USA Men's Basketball Championship, March 10-13 at the BOK Center in Tulsa, Okla.

2009-10 ALL-CONFERENCE USA FIRST TEAM
Aubrey Coleman, Houston, G, 6-4, 200, Sr., Houston, Texas
Randy Culpepper, UTEP, G, Jr., 6-0, 165, Jr., Memphis, Tenn.
Elijah Millsap, UAB, G, Jr., 6-6, 211, Grambling, La.
Ben Uzoh, Tulsa, G, 6-3, 200, Sr., San Antonio, Texas
Elliot Williams, Memphis, G, 6-5, 180, So., Memphis, Tenn.

2009-10 ALL-CONFERENCE USA SECOND TEAM
Derrick Caracter, UTEP, F, 6-9, 275, Jr., Fanwood, N.J.
Gary Flowers, Southern Miss, F, 6-8, 214, Jr., Dallas, Texas
Jerome Jordan, Tulsa, C, 7-0, 245, Sr., Kingston, Jamaica
Hassan Whiteside, Marshall, F, 6-11, 235, Fr., Gastonia, N.C.
Tyler Wilkerson, Marshall, F, 6-8, 240, Sr., Lexington, Ky.

2009-10 ALL-CONFERENCE USA THIRD TEAM
Papa Dia, SMU, F, 6-9, 235, Jr., St. Louis, Senegal
Aaron Johnson, UAB, G, 5-8, 175, Jr., Chicago, Ill.
Derek Williams, SMU, G, 6-1, 170, Sr., Jamaica, N.Y.
Wesley Witherspoon, Memphis, F/G, 6-9, 210, So., Atlanta, Ga.
Brock Young, East Carolina, G, 5-11, 175, Jr., Raleigh, N.C.

College Hoops Tuesday Recap: A Night of Missed Opportunities

Raphielle Johnson — Wed, 03 Mar 2010 04:01:14 -0500

Had Cincinnati, Florida or Illinois won on Tuesday night they'd be the main story in the recap. However with all three dropping opportunities to vault themselves either into the NCAA Tournament or onto the bubble they could all look back at this night as the one that helped keep them out of the Field of 65. The Bearcats and Gators both hosted ranked teams at home and both fell by four points. Cincinnati held Scottie Reynolds scoreless in the first half but they most they could manage was a tie going into the locker room. Reynolds was due to get on the scoreboard and once he did his offense was the difference in a 77-73 Villanova win. Six Wildcats finished in double figures as they shot 55% from the field in the second half and attempted 25 foul shots in the final twenty minutes. Rashad Bishop led the Bearcats with 19 off the bench, and they now find themselves in need of a serious run beginning with the regular season finale at Georgetown.

Florida fell victim to a freshman sharpshooter by the name of John Jenkins in their 64-60 loss. Jenkins made six of nine three-point attempts in scoring a team-high eighteen points and two other Commodores also scored in double figures. Vernon Macklin's 21 points weren't enough to offset Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker combining to shoot 3-for-24 from the field, and the unabashed firing away may have contributed to Chandler Parsons attempting just four shots. The Gators held the advantage in points in the paint and second-chance points but their frigid shooting (26.7% in the second half) was their undoing. But unlike the Bearcats, Florida may still be in decent shape when it comes to getting into the NCAA Tournament. The regular season finale is at Kentucky and a solid performance (at least) will certainly bolster their resume.

As for Illinois it seemed as if the players forgot the pregame scouting report on Ohio State, most notably Jon Diebler. How one of the Big Ten's best three-point shooters can attempt fourteen shots from behind the arc (making seven) has to be one of Tuesday's bigger mysteries. Evan Turner added his customary versatile floor game although the overall stat line wasn't as impressive as we've come to expect, and David Lighty and William Buford each scored in double figures to help the Buckeyes clinch at least a share of the Big Ten title with the 73-57 win. Demetri McCamey led the Illini with 18 points but their difficulties in defending the three (OSU: 10-21 3PT) and getting to the foul line (4-5 FT) resulted in them dropping a game that would have made them a lock for the Big Dance. Now they likely need a win over Wisconsin this weekend to seal the deal.

Three Key Happenings

1. UTEP clinches their first-ever Conference USA title. It's now official: someone other than Memphis has won Conference USA. Tony Barbee's UTEP Miners, who could be a handful for someone in the NCAA Tournament, were able to gut out a win at Marshall by the final score of 80-76. Randy Culpepper, one of the nation's most explosive guards, led the way with 32 points while Derrick Caracter added 18. UTEP was fortunate to make the key plays late as Marshall out-rebounded the Miners 50-35 with Hassan Whiteside and Tyler Wilkerson combining for thirty boards. The key for UTEP going into the Conference USA and NCAA tournaments will be the play of their frontcourt, most notably Caracter and Arnett Moultrie (1-10 FG on Tuesday). Those two have to be consistent if Tony Barbee's team has any hope of advancing.

2. Nearly fifteen years after Tyus Edney broke Tiger hearts Zaire Taylor saves Missouri in Ames. If not for Zaire Taylor the Missouri Tigers would have to find a way to explain dropping a game to an Iowa State team many expect them to handle with relative ease. Taylor hit an 18-footer with eighteen seconds remaining in regulation to tie the game at 61, and after a Cyclone turnover late in overtime he went the length of the floor to toss in an off-balanced shot at the buzzer. Missouri went into the game a virtual lock for an NCAA berth but a game like this is exactly the kind of game that, if lost, can touch off a nosedive to the finish line. They can now focus all of their energy on preparing to host Kansas over the weekend and they remain in contention for one of the four first-round byes in the Big 12 Tournament.

3. Murray State and Morehead State move one step closer to "round three" in the Ohio Valley. The two best teams in the OVC took care of business by identical 33-point margins on Tuesday, moving on to Friday's semifinals in Nashville. Ivan Aska led five players in double figures with seventeen points as the regular season champs routed Tennessee State 84-51, and Kenneth Faried led Morehead State with 24 points and 19 rebounds in their 87-54 win over Jacksonville State. Standing between these two and their second meeting in just over a week are Eastern Illinois (Murray State) and Tennessee Tech (Morehead State), with Mike Sutton's Eagles being the lone surprise. Tennessee Tech won at Austin Peay on a Kevin Murphy three-pointer with six seconds remaining, making this the first year since 2006 in which the Govenors did not advance to at least the semifinals. Could there be a surprise on Friday night? It's not out of the realm of possibility despite the performances of the two favorites to this point in the season.

Top Three Games

1. Missouri 69, Iowa St 67 (OT) See above.

2. Tennessee Tech 68, Austin Peay 65 See above.

3. Radford 64, Charleston Southern 61 (OT) The defending Big South champs nearly had their dreams of a repeat crushed on Tuesday night. Art Parakhouski led the way with 24 points and 13 rebounds while the Buccaneers went scoreless for the first 3:44 of the extra session. Jeremy Sexton led the Buccaneers with 18 points.

Three Notable Performances

1. G J.P. Primm (UNC Asheville) Primm posted a line of 23 points, 11 assists and seven rebounds in the Bulldogs' 84-73 Big South quarterfinal win over High Point.

2. F Kenneth Faried (Morehead State) 24 points and 19 rebounds in Morehead State's 87-54 win over Jacksonville State.

3. Forwards Hassan Whiteside and Tyler Wilkerson (Marshall) Whiteside (20 points, 14 rebounds and six blocks) and Wilkerson (22 points, 16 rebounds) were outstanding in the Thundering Herd's 80-76 loss to UTEP.

BubbleBoard 2/24: Ranking the Bubble Teams

Shawn Siegel — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 16:12:09 -0500

RPI #'s updated as of 2/24/10, 2:00 pm.

The BubbleBoard returns again in 2010. CHN ranks at-large contenders using a variety of standard resume components. The BubbleBoard ranking is a modified RPI, that gives extra credit for success against Top 50 teams & games away from home. The purpose of the BubbleBoard is to weed out those teams that may have a high RPI due to playing a seemingly challenging schedule, but either a) lost almost all their challenging games, or b) have won a few challenging games at home but have been sub-par away from home. Ultimately the tourney should feature teams with a track-record of beating good teams on neutral courts.

The BubbleBoard will be updated weekly until March, when it will be updated daily.

Top 5 Rising teams*: Florida, UCONN, Utah St, Maryland, Richmond

Top 5 Falling teams: Georgia Tech, Wichita St, Dayton, Ole Miss, Baylor

*Based on difference between last week's BubbleBoard

Top 5 Faker teams*: Notre Dame, California, Seton Hall, Mississippi St, Northeastern

Top 5 Dangerous teams: Richmond, UNLV, St. Mary's, UAB, Louisiana Tech

*Faker teams are those that have struggled most away from home & against Top 50 teams as compared to their RPI.

Today's BubbleBoard Additions/Subtractions:

Texas A&M moved into the "lock" category. (Richmond is on the verge of joining them next week.) St Louis added to teams tracked on the list, while Arizona, North Carolina, Northwestern, Texas Tech, and Virginia are no longer tracked as the Bubble tightens up.

Into/Out of Projected At-Large Bid:

In: UCONN, UTEP, Maryland

Out: Charlotte, Virginia Tech (extra in team based on conference champion status of another team)

Today's BubbleBoard Thoughts:

UCONN's success in the past has obviously been well-documented, and it shows as they move from the brink right back firmly on the bubble. They're the last team, which is impressive when you consider they were about 25 teams out 2 weeks ago. Florida also picked up a big win over Tennessee last night, and although the BubbleBoard doesn't love the Gators, it helped them move into legitimate contention. Richmond is on the verge of becoming a lock, and I arguably could have taken them off the list. However, they do have 3 challenging league games remaining and they are in the A-10, so you never know what the committee will do with a non-BCS team. However, so long as they win one of the remaining games, they'll be fine. Interesting that the BubbleBoard is not imrpessed with Big East teams on the most part. Marquette is just 3-7 against Top 50 teams and 4-6 on the road, while Louisville is 2-6 against top 50 teams and a similar 4-6 on the road. Sure, these teams have a few nice wins (because of so many chances), but the BubbleBoard is not fooled by conference affiliation. On the flip-side, the BubbleBoard has been high on CAA teams all year. If you assume that the committee will not take VCU & William & Mary (although W&M is probably deserving), then Virginia Tech & Florida are really the last 2 teams in.

How The Yellow At-Large Field Is Projected:

The yellow shading represents teams who would fit into an approximate bubble. There are 25 "lock" teams (listed below), as well as 16 one-bid league champs not listed, and 3-4 probable league champs included in the BubbleBoard. This leaves about 21 teams with room to make the tournament. Teams with 10+ points are approaching "lock" status to make the tourney as of now. Teams with -10 or below still have work to do. (The 2 semi-shaded boxes represent the extended bubble if you consider that the committee would probably not take VCU and William & Mary, despite what the computers say about them).

	Team	RPI	SOS	NCSOS	Computer	T50 W	T50 L	R/N W	R/N L	L100 L	Bonus =	Total =	Was	Dif
#	Kansas	1	21	45	3	8	1	9	1	0	100	97	97	0
1	Richmond**	25	81	63	20	5	2	9	5	0	55	35	19	16
2	Baylor	16	20	121	14	4	4	7	5	2	19	5	21	-16
3	UAB	32	98	101	26	1	0	10	3	1	25	-1	0	-1
4	Rhode Island	28	60	29	20	2	4	9	4	0	14	-5	1	-6
5	UNLV	44	75	209	35	4	4	9	4	2	25	-10	3	-13
6	Xavier	18	24	17	12	3	6	6	7	0	1	-11	-15	4
7	Saint Mary's	47	135	87	36	2	3	10	3	0	24	-12	-12	0
8	Utah St**	35	84	83	27	2	1	7	5	2	14	-13	-31	18
9	William & Mary	46	77	25	30	3	3	9	6	2	17	-14	-14	0
10	Oklahoma St	29	38	141	23	3	4	6	6	1	9	-14	-22	8
11	Old Dominion**	42	91	7	28	3	4	8	8	1	10	-18	-2	-16
12	Georgia Tech	30	13	113	21	4	6	5	8	1	2	-19	5	-24
13	Clemson	33	36	149	25	3	5	6	5	1	5	-20	-19	-1
14	Missouri	37	59	200	30	4	5	5	6	2	6	-24	-27	3
15	VCU	59	143	93	43	4	1	5	6	4	18	-25	-20	-5
16	Maryland	34	32	154	26	3	6	5	6	0	0	-25	-42	17
17	Dayton	43	37	20	26	3	5	5	7	1	-1	-28	-10	-18
18	Florida St	39	45	204	31	3	6	7	5	1	2	-29	-29	0
19	Cincinnati	56	15	57	34	4	6	4	8	0	5	-29	-27	-2
20	UTEP**	55	133	193	44	1	1	8	3	1	15	-29	-40	11
21	UCONN	41	2	5	23	4	6	3	8	2	-8	-31	-49	18
22	Virginia Tech	45	158	341	45	2	3	7	5	0	13	-32	-25	-7
23	Florida	48	55	158	35	3	6	7	5	1	2	-33	-54	21
24	San Diego St	38	80	122	29	2	4	7	6	2	-4	-34	-34	0
25	Charlotte	55	106	160	41	3	7	9	5	0	7	-35	-23	-12
26	Louisville	40	8	23	23	2	6	4	6	1	-18	-41	-38	-3
27	California**	23	3	1	13	0	4	5	8	1	-29	-42	-43	1
28	South Florida	69	57	241	49	2	3	7	6	1	6	-43	-34	-9
29	Louisiana Tech	66	253	328	61	1	1	10	4	1	18	-43	-49	6
30	Illinois	65	68	132	44	4	6	6	8	2	0	-44	-44	0
31	Washington	60	49	42	37	2	2	1	7	2	-10	-47	-49	2
32	Arizona St	57	78	68	38	1	4	5	5	1	-13	-51	-58	7
33	St Louis	82	142	222	60	3	1	4	7	3	8	-52	X	X
34	Tulsa	75	129	212	55	1	1	4	5	1	1	-55	-50	-5
35	Memphis	62	109	75	43	1	4	6	4	2	-14	-56	-60	4
36	Seton Hall	51	14	150	34	3	9	3	7	0	-23	-57	-66	9
37	Minnesota	76	51	80	47	3	5	3	8	2	-13	-60	-72	12
38	Ole Miss	63	50	136	42	1	6	7	5	1	-19	-61	-42	-19
39	Marquette	61	63	212	44	3	7	4	6	2	-18	-62	-56	-6
40	Wichita St	50	139	299	45	1	3	6	7	3	-19	-64	-46	-18
41	Northeastern	78	90	9	48	2	4	9	7	6	-21	-69	-55	-14
42	Mississippi St	64	123	235	50	1	4	8	6	4	-22	-72	-62	-10
43	Notre Dame	81	69	192	55	1	4	2	8	2	-31	-86	-71	-15

*Teams leading their leagues

Yellow = Approximate bubble cut-off

NC-SOS = Non-conference strength of schedule

Computer = Modified RPI taking into account SOS/NCSOS a bit more

Bonus = Modifications due to Top 50 & R/N success

R/N = Road/neutral

L100L = Lower than 100 losses

Lock Teams: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Villanova, Duke, Purdue, Georgetown, Michigan St, West Virginia, Kansas St, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Ohio St, Temple, BYU, Gonzaga, Northern Iowa, Butler, Siena, Cornell, Wake Forest, Texas, Texas A&M

As teams move in and out of bubble consideration, the teams tracked will change in future weeks.