VCU

Early 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 16-30

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 20 Mar 2012 22:45:04 -0700

With most teams eliminated from competition, its time to start looking ahead to the 2012-13 season. Following up on yesterday's Early 2012-13 Top 15, here are teams 16 to 30.

I had to make many assumptions about the NBA Draft in compiling the following list, and I've noted which assumptions I've made. Once players make their official Draft decisions later in the summer, this ranking will be updated. Also uncertain is where some remaining unsigned recruits will end up. In particular, Shabazz Muhammad (#1 by Rivals.com), Anthony Bennett (#7), Devonta Pollard (#9), and Nerlens Noel (#3 in 2013) remain up for grabs. I purposely made no assumptions about where unsigned prospects will end up. (All prospect rankings are according to the Rivals 150 ranking.)

Early 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 16-30

16 Kansas St Kansas State had a solid season, but they were always a step behind the elite teams. With Jamar Samuels being the lone senior of note, they should be able to take another step forward next year. A pair of solid bigs including 43rd ranked Robert Upshaw join the fray.

17 Memphis The key for Memphis is whether Will Barton decides to enter the Draft. Assuming he doesn't, the Tigers return a talented squad that only loses Wes Witherspoon. Three more 4-star recruits also enter the mix. With Barton back, Memphis has top 10 talent, but it remains to be seen whether Pastner is a top 10 coach.

18 Gonzaga While Robert Sacre graduates, the question remains whether Elias Harris goes pro. If Harris bolts, the roster would be deep, young, and talented, but thin up front. Little used guys like Hart and Spangler would need to emerge as legit contributors. Even without Harris, Gonzaga has top 20 potential.

19 Texas With such a young squad this year, simply making the tournament was an accomplishment. Veteran bigs Chapman and Wangmene graduate, but they'll be replaced by better prospects such as big man Cameron Ridley (#21 on Rivals) and Prince Ibeh (10th ranked center). I'm assuming J'Covan Brown returns, but that's no guarantee.

20 Saint Mary's Rob Jones graduates after a great career, but the rest of this squad returns intact. Freshman Brad Waldow has the potential to be even better than Jones, and so long as Dellavedova is around, Saint Mary's will be fine. They also have solid a solid PF prospect on the way who can help ease the Jones loss.

21 Notre Dame The Irish endured a lot of difficulties to put together a surprisingly fine season. If Tim Abromaitis is granted a redshirt season, Notre Dame could even exceed this ranking. Scott Martin graduates, but the 3-person recruiting class is full of solid forwards.

22 New Mexico Drew Gordon is a huge loss, as he was by far the Lobos best player. But 3 of their 4 next highest scorers were sophomores who should improve substantially. UNM's recruiting class is solid but unspectacular.

23 Florida Erving Walker is the Gators lone senior loss, but I'm assuming that both Brad Beal and Patric Young go pro in this projection. If even one of them returns, they could move up the ranking. Either way, Boynton, Murphy, and Rosario are solid players who will be joined by a 3-man class that lacks a blockbuster name (although 62nd ranked PG Braxton Ogbueze could be underrated).

24 Marquette In Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom, Marquette loses its two best players and 36 ppg. But although they'll take a step back, don't expect Marquette to be complete irrelevant. There are emerging talents on the roster and the 4-person recruiting class will add scoring punch.

25 VCU Unlike most schools that will be awaiting NBA Draft decisions, the big x-factor for VCU is whether Shaka Smart returns. Brad Burgess was the lone senior on a team that looks very dangerous next year. There are even 3 solid newcomers, led by Jordan Burgess, an underrated wing.

26 florida St the Noles will take a step back after a surprise ACC title. They lose the core of the team in James, Dulkys, and Louks. However, a quality 4-person class full of Top 100 prospects will provide added depth. The real key is whether Michael Snaer decides to go pro. As of now, I'm assuming he's back.

27 Saint Louis The Bills lose their leading scorer in Brian Conklin, but the rest of this deep roster remains intact. There is no help on the way in terms of major recruits, but many of this year's sophomores could take major steps forward.

28 Alabama While losing senior JaMychal Green hurts, the bigger question is whether Anthony Grant returns as head coach. He did a fine job this season despite many distractions. However, if he leaves, the Tide would have to drop.

29 Drexel The dragons do lose their leading rebounder in Samme Givens, but the rest of the roster returns. Its been 13 years since Bruiser Flint has made the NCAA Tournament, this should be the year.

30 UCLA Despite a seemingly disastrous season, UCLA remained competitive in the Pac-12. Senior's Lazeric Jones and Jerime Anderson depart, but those losses are more than made up by the entry of Kyle Anderson, the country's 2nd best prospect. If UCLA were to also add Shabazz Muhammad, they'd jump even higher.

>> Continue to 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 31 to 45

<< Return to 2012-13 Ranking: Teams 1 to 15

Indiana vs VCU: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 14:03:03 -0700

(4) Indiana vs. (12) Virginia Commonwealth: South Region

Records

Indiana 26-8, 11-7 Big Ten (At large)

VCU 29-6, 15-3 CAA (Conference Tournament Champions)

Time: 7:10 p.m. Saturday

TV: TBS

Location: Rose Garden in Portland, Ore.

First round results

Indiana def. New Mexico State 79-66

VCU def. Wichita State 62-59

Winner will face: (1) Kentucky or (8) Iowa State, Friday in Atlanta

Rankings

Indiana No. 16 AP; No. 17 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

VCU No. 32 AP; No. 31 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Indiana 14

VCU 35

Line: Indiana -5 (O/U 139)

Players to Watch

Indiana: C Cody Zeller, 6-11 Fr. (15.5 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 62.6% FG); F Christian Watford, 6-9 Jr. (12 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 42.2% 3s); x Jordan Hulls, 6-0 Jr. (11.5 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 49.2% 3s). Watford got the Hoosiers off to a hot start with a pair of 3s to open the game and he finished with 14 points on 6-of-11 shooting. When Watford is scoring, the Hoosiers are nearly unbeatable.

VCU: F Bradford Burgess, 6-6 Sr. (13.3 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 36.6% 3s); G Darius Theus, 6-3 Jr. (8.6 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 1.9 spg); G Troy Daniels, 6-4 Jr. (10 ppg, 1.2 spg, 38.5% 3s). Daniels’ shooting was key in VCU’s upset of the Shockers. He was 4-for-8 from the field, including 2-for-5 from deep for 10 points. He also gave the Rams six big rebounds.

Why Each Team Dangerous

Indiana: Indiana shot 55.1 percent and out-rebounded a much bigger, stronger New Mexico State in a 13-point win that really wasn’t even that close. The Hoosiers have one of the most efficient offenses in the country. They shoot 49 percent from the floor (sixth in the country), 43.6 from 3 (second nationally) and 76.3 percent from the foul line (11^th in the country). They have shot 47.9 percent or better in four of their last five games (and have won 4-of-5) and has shot 40 percent or better from 3 in their last seven straight (and won six of them). Indiana has gotten to the line more than all but 14 teams in the country.

VCU: The Rams are winners. After going to the Final 4 last year, VCU has won 19 of its last 10. The Rams expect to win these games. Burgess, who made the big 3 in Thursday’s win, is an excellent leader and go-to scorer. The Rams win with defense. For the year, they have 371 steals (10.5 per game), which leads the nation, and force 17.8 turnovers per game. They have an astounding plus-6.4 turnover margin and a solid 1.07 assist-to-turnover ratio. They also hold opponents to 42.2 percent shooting and 31.8 percent from deep.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Indiana: Perimeter defense has been an issue of late. Wisconsin hit 13-of-26 from 3 in the Hoosiers’ Big Ten quarterfinal loss. Until the Aggies went 4-for-12 on Thursday, Indiana had given up 38 percent or better from 3 in six straight games. The Hoosiers turn the ball over 12.9 times per game, including 12 Thursday, and that could be an issue against a strong VCU pressure defense. The Hoosiers have turned the ball over on nearly one of every five possessions throughout the season.

VCU: The Rams struggle to score. They average 68.2 points but many of those points come from their defense. They shoot just 41 percent from the floor. They Rams were out-rebounded by their opponents by 1.4 per game this year. Those will both be concerns for coach Shaka Smart against Hoosiers team that plays solid defense and rebounds fairly well.

The Bottom Line: Very interesting game. Indiana’s offense looked incredible against a much bigger NMSU squad, and VCU’s defense looked stellar against a great Wichita State offense. If Indiana can beat the Rams’ pressure, it should win going away. Whether the Hoosiers can do that, though, is in question.

The Pick: Indiana 69, VCU 59

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 206-158-6 (Through Thursday, March 16)

Thursday's Action Underwhelms But Colorado & VCU Win

Raphielle Johnson — Thu, 15 Mar 2012 23:24:37 -0700

The first full day of action in the NCAA tournament didn't produce the number of surprises that many fans both expected and wanted, with just two lower-seeded teams advancing to Saturday's action. While one should come as no surprise to the country the other finds itself carrying the banner for an entire conference...in its first season in the league. Here are the key happenings by location, highlighted by wins for Colorado (Albuquerque) and VCU (Portland).

Albuquerque: Colorado builds a large lead and holds on to beat 6-seed UNLV, winning thier sixth straight game.
Tad Boyle's Buffaloes put together a performance similar to their win over Arizona in the Pac-12 tournament final on Saturday. Colorado got out to a big lead and controlled play for much of the game, ultimately running out of gas down the stretch but finding a way to hold on. Austin Dufault scored 14 points and Andre Roberson added 12 and 16 rebounds to lead Colorado to the 68-64 win, giving the Buffaloes their first NCAA tournament win since 1997. UNLV shot just 32.4% from the field but was able to close the margin to two points due to their pressure, which forced 23 Colorado turnovers on the night.

But Chace Stanback and Mike Moser combined to shoot 7-of-27 from the field, and the Runnin' Rebels could get no closer. Next up for Colorado is old Big 12 foe Baylor, who held off a tough South Dakota State team by the final score of 68-60. Few expected the Buffs to compete for a spot in the top half of the Pac-12 when the season began, but here they are carrying the banner for a struggling conference with 40 minutes between them and the Sweet 16.

Louisville: Iowa State drops the hammer on UConn early, advancing to face top seed Kentucky on Saturday.
The immediate reaction of many on Selection Sunday was excitement in regards to a possible matchup between the defending national champs and top over all seed Kentucky on Saturday. There were so many speaking as if a UConn/Kentucky match-up was a lock that two important factors were ignored. One, the Huskies really hadn't played well despite picking up two wins in New York City. Two, and most importantly, was the fact that UConn had to deal with a good Iowa State team to reach Saturday.

And they couldn't. Royce White was solid with 15 points and 13 rebounds, setting the tone of a game UConn didn't look too prepared to play with a dunk on the opening possession. Iowa State led by as many as 20 in the first half, and whenever the Huskies looked to be making a run they'd make a bad decision. Iowa State advanced with the 77-64 win, and one has to wonder about the direction of the Connecticut program. There's a strong chance that the Huskies won't be eligible for next year's tournament, and if the ban is upheld following the school's final appeal in April that may trigger a mass exodus for their best players. Troubling times in Storrs, that's for sure.

Pittsburgh: Syracuse rallies late to beat UNC Asheville in a game that left many upset with the officiating.
The battle between the Orange and Bulldogs was a wild one, and even with Syracuse not having Fab Melo the game was much closer than anyone anticipated. Eddie Biedenbach's team hung around throughout despite Matt Dickey shooting 1-of-13 from the field, but they couldn't get that one play they needed down the stretch to complete what would have been the first-ever win for a 16-seed over a one. Syracuse hung on for the 72-65 win, advancing to take on 8-seed Kansas State for the right to go to the Sweet 16.

James Southerland came up big off the bench, just as he did in the Big East Championship win over UConn in the quarters, scoring 15 points and grabbing eight boards. Outside of Dickey the Bulldogs had other issues, most notably a few whistles that did not go their way late. But to be fair the game was horrendously officiated throughout out, with both teams ending up on the short end of the stick. Did UNC Asheville outplay Syracuse? For much of the afternoon they did, but the final score is what ultimately determines which team advances and which one sees its season end. Syracuse found a way to survive and advance, and regardless of the aesthetic beauty (or lack thereof) of the win that's all that matters in March.

Portland: VCU makes the big plays late to beat 5-seed Wichita State; gets Indiana next.
In the matchup practically no one wanted to see at this point in the tournament given the potential of both teams it was VCU who found a way to win. Bradford Burgess' three with 1:33 remaining gave the Rams the lead for good as they beat the Shockers 62-59. VCU will look to unleash their "havoc" style of play on Indiana, who beat New Mexico State in the final game of the night. Burgess scored 16 points and Darius Theus and Troy Daniels added ten apiece. VCU did its best work on the defensive end as they were able to harass Wichita State into shooting just 38.7% from the field.

Garrett Stutz, whose three just before time expired went long, struggled to deal with the pace within each possession and VCU's D.J. Haley defended the First Team All-MVC player well throughout. Neither team shot well from three but it was VCU's superior percentage inside of the arc that proved to be the difference. It's unfair to attempt to compare this year's group to last year's, but rest assured that the current group of Rams are just as capable of doing even more damage in the tournament.

Three Notable Performers

1. F Jae Crowder (Marquette)
25 points, 16 rebounds and four assists in the Golden Eagles' 88-68 win over BYU.

2. F Deshaun Thomas (Ohio State)
31 points and 12 rebounds in the Buckeyes' 78-59 win over Loyola (MD).

3. G Rodney McGruder (Kansas State)
30 points (11-16 FG) four rebounds and four steals in the Wildcats' 70-64 win over Southern Miss.

Thursday's NCAA Tournament Games to Watch

Raphielle Johnson — Thu, 15 Mar 2012 01:47:35 -0700

With CHN's Greg Mengelt handling previews and predictions for every game the daily preview will look a little different for the NCAA tournament, with the focus being the game of the day in each region. Below are the games on Thursday's slate that you should make time for, and with four networks (CBS, TBS, TNT and truTV) showing every game in its entirety, there's no excuse (besides a lack of TVs or laptops) for you to not have a multiple TV/computer setup in your home. Enjoy the games.

Albuquerque: (4) Wisconsin vs. (13) Montana
2:10 PM EST; TNT

Many have gone with the Grizzlies in this one, citing the Badgers' reliance on the 3-pointer and the quality of Montana guards Will Cherry and Kareem Jamar. Those are indeed good reasons to go with Wayne Tinkle's team to win, not to metion Derek Selvig insde. However keep in mind that Bo Ryan is 9-1 at Wisconsin in opening games in the NCAA tournament, having won five straight.

They'll be prepared for what Montana looks to throw at them, and with an experienced leader in point guard Jordan Taylor Wisconsin will be tough to knock off. Cherry will draw that defensive assignment, and the Big Sky Defensive Player of the Year is capable of getting the job done. The winner gets the winner of the Vanderbilt/Harvard matchup on Saturday, with the winner of this four-team pod off to Boston for next week's East Regional.

Rest of the day in Albuquerque
(5) Vanderbilt vs. (12) Harvard; 4:40 PM EST (TNT)
(3) Baylor vs. (14) South Dakota State; 7:27 PM EST (truTV)
(6) UNLV vs. (11) Colorado; 9:57 PM EST (truTV)

Louisville: (8) Iowa State vs. (9) Connecticut
9:20 PM EST; TBS

Many have jumped to the conclusion that the Huskies will take on Kentucky on Saturday, and that's a very dangerous position to take especially if the UConn players take the same approach. At 6-9, 270 Iowa State's Royce White is the kind of player that UConn hasn't seen this season, as he runs the point and is just as good at distributing as he is at scoring himself. Roscoe Smith will iikely get the call defensively but he doesn't have the physical strength of White.

Just as important for the Huskies will be the play of their big men, led by Andre Drummond and Alex Oriakhi. Outside of White the Huskies have a clear edge in the paint, but that's only as effective as they make it. How well UConn defends the three will also be important as the Cyclones are a very good perimeter shooting team. Scott Christopherson and Chris Allen can both knock down shots, and Chris Babb will have the task of guarding Jeremy Lamb. This one's going to go down to the wire.

Rest of the day in Louisville
(6) Murray State vs. (11) Colorado State, 12:15 PM EST (CBS)
(3) Marquette vs. (14) BYU, 2:45 PM EST (CBS)
(1) Kentucky vs. (16) Western Kentucky (TBS)

Pittsburgh: (7) Gonzaga vs. (10) West Virginia
7:20 PM EST; TNT

Arguably the most overrated aspect of this game is the fact that Pittsburgh is 90 minutes away from Morgantown. Sure the Mountaineers will likely enjoy an advantage when considering the crowd but it isn't as if natives of the Steel City are lining up to cheer on WVU. Gonzaga should (and likely will) be more concerned with senior foward Kevin Jones, who led the Big East in both scoring and rebounding this season. Elias Harris and Robert Sacre' need to bring it from an effort standpoint if they're to slow Jones down.

The other key aspect of this matchup is the decision-making of West Virginia's guards, most notably Truck Bryant. If the senior's struggling in this regard then the freshmen are likely to follow suit. Kevin Pangos has been one of the best freshman guards in the country for Gonzaga, and classmate Gary Bell Jr. is also capable of breaking out. Keeping WVU off the boards is the one thing Gonzaga has to do in order to win, but that's definitely possible.

Rest of the day in Pittsburgh
(8) Kansas State vs. (9) Southern Miss, 12:40 PM EST (truTV)
(1) Syracuse vs. (16) UNC Asheville, 3:10 PM EST (truTV)
(2) Ohio State vs. (15) Loyola (MD), 9:50 PM EST (TNT)

Portland: (5) Wichita State vs. (12) VCU
7:15 PM EST; CBS

There weren't too many people thrilled with this matchup, especially if you're a fan of the mid-major. Both the Shockers and Rams have the potential to reach New Orleans, but after this battle only one of them will remain in the field. VCU is going to throw their "havoc" system at Wichita State throughout, and if the Shockers are unable to handle that pressure it could be a long night in Portland. Joe Ragland was very good this season for WSU and they've got other solid options on the perimeter as well.

There are two keys for VCU: Bradford Burgess plays well, and D.J. Haley and Juvonte Reddic can combine to perform well against All-MVC center Garrett Stutz. Gregg Marshall's Shockers have enough talent and depth to handle the VCU pressure with a minimal number of turnovers, and if they can the dynamic of the game will change. Both head coaches will be hot names on the open job market during the offseason but that's of little concern to either team at this point in the season.

Rest of the day in Portland
(4) Louisville vs. (13) Davidson, 1:40 PM EST (TBS)
(5) New Mexico vs. (12) Long Beach State, 3:10 PM EST (TBS)
(4) Indiana vs. (13) New Mexico State, 9:45 PM EST (CBS)

NCAA Tournament Interviews: Former VCU PG Joey Rodriguez

Jon Teitel — Wed, 14 Mar 2012 17:57:44 -0700

As part of the NCAA tournament interview series CHN writer Jon Teitel has also been able to catch up with some familiar names from tournaments past. One such player is former VCU point guard Joey Rodriguez, who helped lead the Rams from the First Four to the Final Four last year.

Jon Teitel: You played for Coach Shaka Smart at VCU. What makes him such a good coach, and what is the most important thing you ever learned from him?

Joey Rodriguez: He is a different guy who you can call whenever you need something. We fed off his level of confidence, and he gave us the freedom to play. He taught us something called ACL (Aggressive, Confident, and Loose), and we just followed that plan.

JT: What are your memories of the 2009 NCAA tournament (Eric Maynor scored 21 points but missed a 17-foot shot at the buzzer in a one-point loss to UCLA)?

JR: We all struggled in the first half, and then started to cause some turnovers in the second half. Eric was our best player, so the last shot was his to take.

JT: After a four-point overtime loss to Old Dominion in the 2010 CAA tournament title game you won five straight postseason games to clinch the CBI title. How devastating was the loss to ODU, and what did it mean to you to win the title?

JR: The ODU loss was devastating, as we were up by about 12 with four minutes left in regulation before losing in OT. The CBI win was great. We got some extra wins under our belt with our first-year coach, which helped us going into the following year.

2011 NCAA Tournament

JT: You scored eight points in a win over USC in the First Four. How nervous were you on Selection Sunday as a "bubble team", and how much of a blur is it to see your name on TV and then have to go play your opening game only three days later?

JR: It was a total blur. I was on all the websites looking at all the brackets I could the entire week leading up to it. That was a very exciting day when we got into the tournament.

JT: You scored 17 points and made all nine of your free throws in a win over Georgetown. How did it feel to hear your fans chanting "Jay Bilas" (who said VCU did not belong in the tournament) toward the end of the game?

JR: It was pretty funny! It was awesome to play in the United Center where Michael Jordan had played, and since we were playing Georgetown I got to see Hall of Fame coach John Thompson sitting in the front row.

JT: You had 12 points and 11 assists in a win over three-seed Purdue. Where does that game rank among the best ball-control performances you have ever seen (26 assists to just four turnovers)?

JR: It is probably the best. We were definitely clicking on all cylinders and our execution was the best I have ever seen. Purdue was one of the best defensive teams in the tournament, but they could not stop us.

JT: You had ten assists including an inbounds pass to Bradford Burgess for a layup with 7.1 seconds left to clinch a one-point overtime win over Florida State. What did Coach Smart tell you after the Seminoles called a timeout to switch their defense?

JR: We were going to run an inbounds play called 12, but he switched it to 11 and then Brad just got open.

JT: You scored nine points in a ten-point win over one-seed Kansas. Was it extra-special to beat the Jayhawks after one of the Morris twins told you "the run ends here" during the pre-game captains' meeting?

JR: That game was really special. Brandon Rozzell finished with 12 points but really carried us in the first half. I relayed the statement to my teammates, so we were ready to play.

JT: You had eight assists in an eight-point loss to eventual runner-up Butler. How did the run to the Final Four change your life?

JR: I got to go to the White House and now I am doing some things with Allstate along with Hall of Famers like Dick Vitale and James Worthy.

JT: You graduated in the top five of several career statistical categories (second with 211 three pointers and 237 steals, and third with 580 assists and 80.2 FT%). Do you feel like you are one of the best players in VCU history?

JR: I do. I never missed a game in four years and my teammates and I did a lot for the school.

JT: Your alma mater plays Wichita State on Thursday night. What do you think about their seed, and do you think they will be able to pull off the upset?

JR: I figured they would get an 11 or 12 seed, even with a down year in the conference. We played a tough BracketBusters game against Wichita State last year that we won by a point, so hopefully we can beat them again this year.

Joey is a part of Allstate's "Team Mayhem" campaign and will be at the Final Four in New Orleans to interact with fans at Bracket Town.

Wichita St vs VCU: Prediction

Greg Mengelt — Mon, 12 Mar 2012 23:11:06 -0700

(5) Wichita St vs. (12) Virginia Commonwealth: South Region

Records

Wichita State 27-5, 16-2 MVC (Regular-season Conference Champions; At large)

VCU 28-6, 15-3 CAA (Conference Tournament Champions)

Time: 7:15 p.m. Thursday

TV: CBS

Location: Rose Garden in Portland, Ore.

Winner will face: (4) Indiana vs. (13) New Mexico State, Saturday

Rankings

Wichita State No. 18 AP; No. 19 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

VCU No. 32 AP; No. 31 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

RPI Ratings

Wichita State 16

VCU 40

Line: Wichita State -5½ (O/U 134)

Players to Watch

Wichita State: G Joe Ragland, 6-0 Sr. (13.4 ppg, 3.4 apg, 56.7% FG); C Garrett Stutz, 7-0 Sr. (13.5 ppg, 8 rpg, 55.6% FG); G Toure’ Murry, 6-5 Sr. (12.2 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 3.3 apg). Ragland is one of the most improved players in the country from last year to this, improving his scoring average from 7.0 to 13.4. He increased his shooting percentage from 44.3 a year ago to 56.7 this year and his 3-point accuracy from 31.3 to 50 percent.

VCU: F Bradford Burgess, 6-6 Sr. (13.3 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.5 apg); F Juvonte Reddic, 6-9 So. (10.6 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 51.6% FG); G Darius Theus, 6-3 Jr. (8.6 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 1.9 spg). Theus got better as the season wound down and he came up big in the 59-56 win over Drexel in the CAA championship game with 16 points, five assists, five steals and four rebounds.

Why Each Team is Dangerous

Wichita State: Although this is Wichita’s first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2006, the current Shockers have more experience than any team in the field with four seniors and a junior in the starting lineup. They are incredibly balanced with six players averaging at least 8.3 points and another at 5.7. The Shockers are strong up the middle with Stutz and Hall providing scoring, defense and toughness. They shot 48.5 percent from the field and 37.3 from the 3-point line. They also had a plus-5.7 rebounding margin and shoot 75.1 percent from the charity stripe.

VCU: The Rams are coming off a 5-win run to the Final 4 a year ago. Only Burgess played significant minutes on that team, but this year’s squad should be confident in itself, particularly after winning six straight and 17 of their last 18 through Monday’s title-game win. VCU plays the best full-court defense in the country, forcing 610 turnovers, including a nation-best 361 steals (10.6 per game). The Rams had a plus-6.5 turnover margin.

Why Each Team is Vulnerable

Wichita State: The Shockers’ season opened unimpressively in Puerto Rico and their tournament run ended with a thud as it went scoreless in the final 2:51 in a MVC semifinal loss to interior Illinois State. Wichita doesn’t get to the foul line often and sometimes gives team too many second-chance opportunities, and shot selection has been a concern at times. Stutz has had issues with foul troubles and the Shockers have struggled without him at times.

VCU: The young Rams just aren’t a very good offensive team, with the exception of Burgess. Much of their offense comes from their defense. If VCU isn’t effective in turning teams over, it really struggles in the half-court. They shot 41 percent from the floor this season, including just 33.7 from the 3-point line. VCU has also been pounded on the boards at times. It was out-rebounded by 2.0 boards per game this season.

The Bottom Line: Can’t put together any scenario where this game is close.

The Pick: Wichita State 66, Virginia Commonwealth 52

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 198-148-6 (Through Sunday, March 11)

Four Factors to NCAA Tournament Success

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 12 Mar 2012 14:52:36 -0700

As every basketball junkie knows, KenPom.com is a treasure trove of college basketball information. I pored through the data to find four key factors that propelled recent Final Four teams to success, and teams that excel at those factors this year:

Interior Defense

Lst year's winner, UCONN, was very strong on defense, particularly in the paint. UCONN was 7th in the country in opponents 2-point fg%. This year, the following teams excel at interior defense:

#1 Kentucky

#2 Kansas

#3 UCONN

#4 Louisville

#5 Wisconsin

#8 Memphis

#12 Florida St

#13 Michigan St

These 8 teams are extremely hard to score against on the inside. With Anthony Davis and Thomas Robinson manning the paint, Kentucky and Kansas in particular will be tough to score against. Teams that play good interior defense have what it takes to go all the way, as they'll only lose when opponents have fluke success on the outside.

Non-Conference Strength of Schedule

Last year's runner up Butler played an extremely tough schedule, the 7th hardest in the country. Overall records can be skewed by soft schedules and an inordinate amount of home games. The following teams are well prepped after playing brutal schedules:

#2 Mississippi Valley St

#3 Long Beach St

#14 Duke

#18 UNC Asheville

#20 Temple

#25 Memphis

Long Beach St, a 12 seed, played an extremely challenging schedule and came close to knocking off top 10 teams. They know what its like to play on the road and could be a team to watch.

Offensive Rebounding

In 2010, Duke went on to win it all thanks to an extremely efficient offense, #1 in the country. Duke wasn't even an amazing shooting team that year, but they were efficient because they limited turnovers and attacked the offensive glass. Here are some teams that will consistently get extra points off the boards this year:

#4 New Mexico St

#7 West Virginia

#8 Kansas St

#9 North Carolina

#14 Loyola (MD)

#16 Texas

#18 Kentucky

Led by Wendell McKines, New Mexico St is tough in the paint, which makes them dangerous against 4-seed Indiana. The only two teams on this list that combine offensive rebounding prowess with an ability to take care of the ball are North Carolina and Kentucky. They have to be considered serious National Champion contenders.

Defensive Pressure

VCU made a surprise run to the Final Four last year as an 11 seed. They were not particularly amazing at offense, but they did play great defense that forced a ton of turnovers. Here are teams that force the highest % of steals:

#1 VCU

#3 Syracuse

#4 Ohio

#6 Louisville

#14 Cincinnati

#15 Marquette

#16 Mississippi Valley St

#18 Missouri

VCU is even better at forcing steals this year than they were last year. Ohio is another low seed (a 13) that plays pressure defense. They could cause all kinds of trouble for opponent Michigan. You'll notice a lot of Big East teams on this list, perhaps why many of the league's games were low scoring this year.

NCAA Tournament: 10 Potential First Round Upsets

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 12 Mar 2012 10:04:11 -0700

Top 10 Most Likely Upsets

March is no time to play it safe. When you fill in your brackets over the next few days, here are the 10 most likely First Round upsets to focus on:

10 #14 South Dakota St over #3 Baylor

Led by Nate Wolters, South Dakota St had a rock-solid season with only one bad loss. In games against power conference teams, they've been very competitive (including a shock 19 point win at Washington.) This is not the best match-up for the Jackrabbits though as Baylor's size will be hard for them to handle.

9 #12 VCU over #5 Wichita St

VCU arguably deserved a 10 or 11 seed, instead of getting unlucky going against a Wichita St team that arguably was a 4 seed. Although their not as good as last year's Final Four team, the Rams play solid D which keeps them in most games.

9 #15 Detroit over #2 Kansas

While no 16 seed has ever won a first round game, 15 seeds pull off an upset about once a decade. Will this be that time? Detroit is hot, having come out of the solid Horizon League, and they have a big-time player in Ray McCallum. And don't forget, Kansas lost a home game to Davidson earlier in the year, so they're vulnerable. Don't bet the house on this one, but if you're feeling uber-risky, maybe this is your play.

7 #13 New Mexico St over #4 Indiana

The Aggies have hit their stride over the last month, and face Indiana feeling quite confident. As good as Indiana was this year, they still were shaky on the road, losing to the likes of Iowa and Nebraska.

6 #11 Colorado St over #6 Murray St

According to the RPI, Colorado St is barely any worse than Murray St, with the 26th best ranking vs 22nd for Murray. In a sense, this is like a 6 seed vs 7 seed game by the RPI. The spread is only 2.5 points right now which shows you how close Vegas thinks this game is.

5 #12 Long Beach St over #5 New Mexico

According to most ratings (including the RPI and KenPom), Long Beach St is a top 40 team. They played an extremely hard non-conference schedule, but always seemed to come just short of the big upset. Is this the time they finally break through?

4 #12 Harvard over #5 Vanderbilt

While Vandy is appropriately seeded as a 5, Harvard arguably deserves to be a 9 or 10 seed. The Crimson beat the likes of Florida St and St. Joseph's earlier, and although they didn't dominate the Ivy League like many expected, the Ivy League was also better than most realize. So long as Harvard can keep the game at a slow pace, this should be a game until the final minutes.

3 #14 Saint Bonaventure over #3 Florida St

Florida St is a hard team to figure out. They've had great results against Duke and North Carolina, but yet lost to Boston College, Princeton, and Clemson. With Andrew Nicholson, the Bonnies have a player more talented than anyone on FSU.

2 #13 Ohio over #4 Michigan

Led by do-everything PG DJ Cooper, Ohio is a feared 13 seed. The Bobcats beat 7 top 100 teams, and MAC squads tend to fare well in the Tournament. Michigan was great at home this year, but no so great on the road. If the Wolverines aren't hitting threes, Ohio could pull off the upset.

1 #13 Davidson over #4 Louisville

Although Louisville won the Big East tournament, they seem very vulnerable here. Davidson not only beat Kansas on the road earlier in the year, but they only lost to 5 seed Vanderbilt by 4 points as well. Louisville wins by playing tight D, but because they struggle to score, they fail to crush weaker opponents and keep them in the game. This one could be interesting.

More Bracket Tips

Bracketology Poll: Which Team Was Most Underseeded?

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 22:16:43 -0700

Tournament Poll: Most Likely 12 vs 5 Upset?

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 20:20:04 -0700