VMI

Finals Predictions: Atlantic Sun, Big South, OVC

Greg Mengelt — Sat, 03 Mar 2012 10:19:13 -0800

Our g ame prediction guru Greg Mengelt has been on fire this year. He'll be picking every conference tournament game over the next 2 weeks. Read more about Championship Week at CollegeHoops.net.

BIG SOUTH CHAMPIONSHIP: AT ASHEVILLE, N.C.

(7) VMI (17-15, 8-10) at (1) UNC-Asheville (23-9, 16-2)

Tipoff: Noon. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 5 – Asheville 94-85; Feb. 2 – Asheville 89-86*. RPI: Asheville 120, VMI 267. Analysis: VMI’s high-powered offense is rolling, maybe enough to keep the Keydets in this game. Line: Asheville -14. Pick: Asheville 89, VMI 80.

OHIO VALLEY CHAMPIONSHIP: AT NASHVILLE

(1) Murray State (29-1, 15-1) vs. (2) Tennessee State (20-11, 11-5)

Tipoff: 1 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Feb. 9 – Tennessee State 72-68*; Feb. 23 – Murray State 80-62*. RPI: Murray State 31, Tennessee State 131. Analysis: Obviously, the Tigers have the ability to beat Murray. Will they do it for the second time this season? Probably not, but the Racers won’t beat them by 18 points again in Nashville. Line: Murray State -7. Pick: Murray State 84, Tennessee State 78.

ATLANTIC SUN CHAMPIONSHIP: AT MACON, GA.

(1) Belmont (26-7, 16-2) vs. (6) Florida Gulf Coast (15-16, 8-10)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. TV: ESPN2. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 16 – Belmont 95-53; Feb. 11 – Belmont 86-63*. RPI: Belmont 63, FGCU 228. Analysis: The A-Sun field has had nothing for Belmont this season. Saturday will be no different. Line: Belmont -15½. Pick: Belmont 82, Florida Gulf Coast 57.

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 100-69-2

Saturday's Conference Tournament Primer

Raphielle Johnson — Sat, 03 Mar 2012 07:37:16 -0800

Three tickets to the NCAA tournament will be punched on Saturday, beginning with the Big South title game matching seven-seed VMI and regular season champion UNC Asheville. Eddie Biedenbach's Bulldogs have avoided the turmoil on the opposite side of the bracket, which saw both Coastal Carolina and Campbell fall in the quarterfinals. Duggar Baucom's Keydets were the ones who knocked off CCU, as they shot an impressive 14-for-28 from three in their 85-68 win over the Chanticleers. VMI would follow that up with a 75-55 win over Winthrop on Thursday, limiting the Eagles to 32.8% shooting and forcing 15 turnovers.

A repeat of either of those performances will be tougher to come by against UNC Asheville, who relies on the Big South's best perimeter tandem on the offensive end of the floor. Matt Dickey and J.P. Primm average a combined 31.8 points and 7.6 assists per game on the season, and if one struggles the other is more than capable of picking up the slack. The Bulldogs aren't just a two-man attack however, as senior guard Chris Stephenson is scoring just over 13 points a game and forward Jeremy Atkinson adds 11.5 and 6.7 boards. VMI has Stan Okoye and Kenny Gabriel to rely on while Jordan Weethee has shot the ball well this week.

Both teams can clearly score, with UNC Asheville averaging 81 points per game and VMI 80, but the Bulldogs have been the more efficient team with their average of 1.1 4 points per possession. The two regular season meetings were both close, high-scoring affairs with the Bulldogs winning both by a combined 12 points.

VMI can force turnovers with the best of them and they pestered the Bulldogs into 18 of them in the second meeting. But the Keydets can't afford to turn the ball over themselves, something they did in both meetings (17 apiece). Take care of the basketball and VMI's got a shot to go dancing, but if they can't they'll be headed back to Lexington without the crown.

The OVC title game is the one most bubble teams will be tuned into (so long as they're not playing themselves), as Murray State is going to the Big Dance with or without an automatic bid. A Tennessee State win would make the OVC a two-bid league, and given the fact that the Tigers beat Murray State in their gym that's not exactly far-fetched.

Robert Covington is one of the toughest matchups in the OVC, and he put up 24 and 15 in the Tigers' 80-62 loss to Murray State on February 23rd. John Cooper's Tigers have been balanced offensively so it's not just a one-man show, and the same goes for the Isaiah Canaan-led Racers. Donte Poole accounted for 25 and seven rebounds in their win over Tennessee Tech, and Ivan Aska and Ed Daniel are two guys who thrive in physical games inside.

Last but not least there's the Atlantic Sun final which matches top-seed Belmont and six-seed Florida Gulf Goast, who are in their first season of full Division I membership. North Florida entered last season's title game in the same spot as the Eagles, but Belmont was having no part of a "storybook" finish for their opponent. Rick Byrd's Bruins haven't been as dominant as they were last season but they're still the class of the A-Sun with Kerron Johnson and big men Mick Hedgepeth and Scott Saunders leading the way.

FGCU has withstood two off performances from Brett Comer but they need him to be at his best if they're to dethrone the reigning champs. The good news for the Eagles is that big men Chase Fieler and Eddie Murray have played well this week, and another solid outing from them will give FGCU a chance.

Atlantic Sun - Title Game
#1 Belmont vs. #6 FGCU, 7:00 p.m. (ESPN2)

Big South - Title game
#7 VMI at #1 UNC Asheville, 12:00 p.m. (ESPN2)

Ohio Valley - Title Game
#1 Murray State vs. #2 Tennessee State, 2:00 p.m. (ESPN2)

America East - Quarterfinals (at University of Hartford)
#1 Stony Brook vs. #9 Binghamton, 12:05 p.m. (AE All-Access Live Video)
#4 Albany vs. #5 New Hampshire, *2:15 p.m. (AE All-Access Live Video)
#2 Vermont vs. #7 Maine, 6:05 p.m. (AE All-Access Live Video)
#3 Boston U. vs. #6 Hartford, *8:15 p.m. (AE All-Access Live Video)

Binghamton kicked things off in America East on Thursday night with a win over UMBC but the climb gets much steeper for Mark Macon's Bearcats as they take on regular season champ Stony Brook. The Seawolves scored just 67.4 points per game but they're one of the league's better defensive teams, limiting opponents to 59.1 points and 0.93 points per possession. If Robert Mansell and Ben Dickinson can shake free from the likes of league Defensive Player of the Year Tommy Brenton maybe Binghamton can hang around, but it doesn't look promising.

The 4/5 game should be interesting to watch due to the presence of Albany's Gerardo Suero, a junior guard who is one of the nation's best scorers and a guy some feel was robbed in the America East Player of the Year voting. UNH can counter with a solid guard of their own in Alvin Abreu, but slowing down Suero is a task that won't be done with ease. Also keep an eye on Albany's Logan Aronholt, who's been dealing with a knee injury that's forced him to sit for two games and play just nine minutes apiece in two others over the last four games.

Big Sky - Quarterfinals
#5 Idaho State at #4 Eastern Washington, 5:00 p.m.
#6 Montana State at #3 Portland State, 10:00 p.m.

The winners in the Big Sky will move on to play Montana and Weber State next week, and given how tight the race for those final tournament spots was these two contests shouldn't lack in the entertainment department. idaho State features one of the league's hottest scorers in Kenny McGowen, but the EWU trio of Cliff Colimon, Cliff Ederaine and Colin Chiverton will be tough to stop. Add in the fact that ISU is 4-12 on the road this season and it could be a tough day for the Bengals in Cheney.

As for Montana State, the Bobcats lost leading scorer Xavier Blount for the season due to injuries suffered in an altercation and it's been a struggle offensively ever since. They visit a Portland State team that hasn't had such issues thanks to Chehales Tapscott and Charles Odum, which means it could be a tough day on the road for Montana State.

Colonial - Quarterfinals
#1 Drexel vs. #9 UNCW, Noon (CAA-TV)
#4 Old Dominion vs. #5 Delaware, 2:30 p.m. (CAA-TV)
#2 VCU vs. #7 Northeastern, 6 p.m. (CAA-TV)
#3 George Mason vs. #6 Georgia State, 8:30 p.m. (CAA-TV)

The "big guns" in the CAA make their debut in this season's tournament, beginning with regular season champion Drexel taking on UNC Wilmington. The question surrounding the league this weekend is whether or not they can find a second NCAA tournament bid, with the Dragons, VCU and George Mason all owning impressive overall records (Drexel and VCU have won 25 games while George Mason has 23 wins). But the computer profiles are a bit lacking in the eyes of some, which could limit the CAA to just one bid come Selection Sunday.

CAA Player of the Year Ryan Pearson has the ability to put George Mason on his back and lead them to the title, but the same can be said for VCU's Bradford Burgess and Drexel's Frantz Massenat. Also keep an eye on four-seed ODU, led by senior Kent Bazemore. The Monarchs have a tough matchup to deal with in Delaware's Jamelle Hagins, but Blaine Taylor's squad has been solid defensively for much of the season.

Horizon League - Semifinals (at Valparaiso)
#3 Detroit vs. #2 Cleveland State, 6 p.m. (ESPN3)
#5 Butler at #1 Valparaiso, 8:30 p.m. (ESPNU)

The talk following Friday's quarterfinals was whether or not this was the beginning of another March run for Butler, but it would be wise to remember that Valparaiso is the regular season champion. The Crusaders won both regular season meetings: by six at Hinkle Fieldhouse on December 3rd and by 12 (71-59) in the regular season finale for both last Friday. The time off has also given forward Kevin Van Wijk more time to rest his knee, and that should help Bryce Drew's team along with playing at home. Horizon League Player of the Year Ryan Broekhoff was quiet in the second meeting but Van Wijk led the way with 18 and Will Bogan is a solid offensive piece as well.

Butler will need another solid night from Roosevelt Jones and Khyle Marshall along with Andrew Smith if they're to win at Valpo. The first semifinal matches Detroit, who looked very good offensively in their win over Youngstown State, and a Cleveland State team that's struggled since D'Aundray Brown went down. If Brown can go and be effective the Vikings can definitely win, but if he's limited or can't go they likely won't have enough weapons to keep up with the Titans.

Metro Atlantic - Quarterfinals
#4 Fairfield vs. #5 Rider, 2:00 p.m. (ESPN3)
#1 Iona vs. #8 Marist, 4:30 p.m. (ESPN3)
#2 Loyola (MD) vs. #7 Niagara, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN3)
#3 Manhattan vs. #6 Siena, 9:30 p.m. (ESPN3)

The first game of the day in the MAAC tournament is the most intriguing, as not only is the battle between Fairfield and Rider a contrast in styles but both teams have the ability to make a run this weekend. The Stags lost guard Derek Needham for the season due to a broken foot but they've got enough depth to navigate his loss, and in forward Rakim Sanders the Stags have one of the league's toughest covers. Tommy Dempsey's Broncs didn't play as well as expected during the regular season but with weapons such as Novar Gadson, Jeff Jones and Jonathon Thompson, Rider is more than capable of winning a shootout. But can they guard well enough to stick around Springfield for a few days? That's the big question.

Loyola has to be wary of Niagara given the scoring ability of freshmen Juan'ya Green and Antoine Mason, but the Greyhounds' depth and versatility could prove to be too much for the Purple Eagles. In the final game of the night Siena's chances hinge on the health of guard Evan Hymes due to their lack of depth, and Iona needs to take the floor with a killer instinct in their quarterfinal matchup with Marist.

Missouri Valley - Semifinals
#1 Wichita State vs. #4 Illinois State, 2:30 p.m. (MVC TV)
#2 Creighton vs. #3 Evansville, 5:00 p.m. (MVC TV)

The top four seeds meet in St. Louis and while many will expect the Shockers and Bluejays to advance don't sell the redbirds or Purple Aces short. Evansville took Creighton to overtime at home before some costly mistakes in the extra session cost them a win, lost by just three at Wichita State. But given the way Gregg Marshall's Shockers are playing of late it's going to be tough to slow them down given their many offensive options to go along with a solid defense. If Jackie Carmichael can control the paint in his battle with Garrett Stutz then ISU has a chance.

The second game could be a shootout given the offensive ability of both teams. Doug McDermott is a household name and he's got teammates more than capable of scoring as well, but Evansville has a combo in Colt Ryan and Denver Holmes who can get going offensively as well. If Marty Simmons' club can take care of the basketball and limit McDermott's paint touches they can win, but that's a big "if" at this point.

Southern - Quarterfinals
#1N UNCG vs. #5N Appalachian State, 12:00 p.m.
#2S Wofford vs. #3N Western Carolina, 2:30 p.m.
#1S Davidson vs. #5S Furman, 6:00 p.m.
#2N Elon vs. #3S Georgia Southern, 8:30 p.m.

The question is a simple one: which of the other seven teams left in the SoCon tournament can knock off Davidson, the overall regular season champion and prohibitive favorite to win the automatic bid? Jake Cohen and De'Mon Brooks have been outstanding all season long in the frontcourt and five Wildcats are averaging at least ten points per game. The best story may be UNCG, whose interim head coach (Wes Miller) was named league Coach of the Year due to his leading the Spartans to the North Division crown, and they've got a high-flying scorer in Trevis Simpson as well. Wofford's been to two NCAA tournaments under head coach Mike Young and they navigated the loss of a group of seniors led by Noah Dahlman to finish second in the South Division.

Summit - Quarterfinals
#1 Oral Roberts vs. #8 IPFW, 7:00 p.m. (FCS)
#2 South Dakota State vs. #7 IUPUI, 9:30 p.m. (FCS)

Summit League play opens tonight with the top two seeds tipping things off, and two of the country's best players whose names aren't tossed around on ESPN every night will be on display. ORU's Dominique Morrison has been an outstanding scorer this season, and South Dakota State point guard Nate Wolters is one of the country's most efficient players. Those two are expected to end up meeting in the title game, and even though the Jackrabbits did beat IUPUI by 11 in the regular season finale there was also the 97-93 thriller played between the two earlier this season. Alex Young is averaging 20.7 points per game to lead the Jaguars, who can salvage what's been a disappointing season with a run in Sioux Falls.

Sun Belt - First Round
#6 South Alabama vs. #11 Troy, 7:00 p.m. (Summit Arena)
#8 Florida Atlantic vs. #9 Arkansas State, 7:15 p.m. (Convention Center Court)
#7 Western Kentucky vs. #10 FIU, 9:30 p.m. (Summit Arena)

Seeds six through eleven open up play in Hot Springs, Arkansas, and it will be interesting to see if any of these teams can cause some chaos within the bracket. South Alabama may be the best choice due to the Jaguars being the lone team without a losing conference record (8-8), and after that it's anyone's guess. WKU is a very young team but they're talented as well with freshman Derrick Gordon leading the way. Three teams will keep their seasons alive but it's difficult to see any of them getting to the semifinals much less the title game.

WCC - Semifinals
#1 Saint Mary's vs. #5 San Francisco, 9:00 p.m. (ESPNU)
#2 Gonzaga vs. #3 BYU, 11:00 p.m. (ESPNU)

The three teams many expect to get to the NCAA tournament out of the WCC will be on display, but San Francisco has the ability to surprise Saint Mary's and reach the final. The Dons lost a close one to the Gaels in the regular season finale, and the celebration of their first outight WCC title in more than 20 years did go over too well with U.S.F. wing Rashad Green (he reportedly banged on the SMC locker room door and "asked" them to keep the noise down). Cody Doolin and Michael Williams are playing well and Angelo Caloiaro is one of the WCC's most versatile players, so don't be surprised if San Francisco can push Matthew Dellavedova, Rob Jones and company to the brink.

In the nightcap one would think that a BYU win over Gonzaga, which would give them two this season, would truly punch the Cougars' ticket to the Big Dance if it hasn't been already. Noah Hartsock looked good despite being bugged by a knee injury at the end of the regular season on Friday night, scoring 19 points in the Cougars' win over San Diego. But Matt Carlino can't turn the ball over nine times as he did against the Toreros if they're to knock off Gonzaga, who needs consistent play from Elias Harris and Robert Sacre inside.

Ducks Get Hot in the Second Half: Thursday's Quick Hitters

Raphielle Johnson — Fri, 02 Mar 2012 07:32:39 -0800

Florida State's Ian Miller knocked down a three-pointer with eight tenths of a second remaining to give the Seminoles a 63-60 win at Virginia, who will finish the regular season without a win over any of the top three teams in the ACC.

1. Oregon scored 54 second-half points to erase a five-point halftime deficit and beat Colorado.
The battle in Eugene between the Ducks and Buffaloes was likely more of a "bubble eliminator" contest, with the loser most likely needing to win the Pac-12 tournament in order to go dancing. Unfortunately for Colorado, who has struggled on the road all season, their play on the defensive end let them down in the second half. Oregon shot 61.5% in the second half of their 90-81 win, which also moved the Ducks closer to a first-round bye in next week's conference tournament. Devoe Joseph scored 24 points and Garrett Sim added 19 for Oregon, who shot 8-for-14 from beyond the arc as well. Carlon Brown snapped out of his funk to lead four Colorado players in double figures with 20 points, and despite the loss that's an important development for the Buffs. If he's playing efficiently they can win the Pac-12 tournament, which they will likely have to do in order to reach the Field of 68.

2. Nevada clinches the WAC regular season title, and there won't be many highly ranked teams who will line up to face them in the Big Dance.
Regardless of what seed line David Carter's Wolf Pack end up on, they're not going to be a fun matchup for the team that draws them should they win the WAC's automatic bid. Olek Czyz led three Nevada players in double figures with 15 points and their defending of a ball screen in the final seconds eventually forced a New Mexico State turnover to seal the 65-61 win. NMSU's final sequence looked to be doomed from the start but head coach Marvin Menzies chose to play it out despite having a timeout remaining, ultimately leading to Hernst LaRoche throwing the ball away. Wendell McKines led the Aggies with 19 points and LaRoche added 12 in what could have been a preview of next weekend's title game. With the likes of Czyz, Deonte Burton, Dario Hunt and Malik Story the Wolf Pack have talented weapons that can give teams fits, and there won't be any highly-seeded teams lining up for their shot at Nevada.

3. Quinnipiac is the lone road team to win in the NEC quarterfinals.
Of course in a conference tournament in which the higher seeded teams host all the game the 4/5 matchup tends to be the one most likely to produce a win for the road team. That rang true for the Patriot League Wednesday night (Lafayette) and for the NEC on Thursday, as fifth-seed Quinnipiac beat St. Francis (NY) 80-72 to set up a semifinal matchup with regular season champion LIU Brooklyn. The Bobcats, who are the best rebounding team in the NEC, grabbed 20 offensive rebounds and out-rebounded the Terriers 48-36 on the night. James Johnson didn't shoot well from the field (4-for-14) but he did make 12 of 17 from the foul line and scored a game-high 22 points to go along with eight rebounds, and Ike Azotam scored 15 and grabbed 12 boards inside. Brent Jones led four SFNY players in double figures with 21 points but the rebounding issues were too much to overcome. And that aspect of Quinnipiac's game is what gives them more than a puncher's chance at LIU on Sunday.

Quick Hitters

1. D.J. Covington scored 16 points and blocked four shots in 20 minutes of action to help lead VMI past Winthrop 75-55 as the Keydets advanced to the Big South title game. The seven-seed will face regular season champ UNC Asheville, who whipped Charleston Southern 91-64, on Saturday afternoon.

2. Darius Miller scored 17 points on Senior Night to help lead #1 Kentucky to a 79-49 win over Georgia, moving the Wildcats' win streak to 21. UK shot 15-for-27 from three, and when the Wildcats are rolling like that it's near impossible to knock them off.

3. Meyers Leonard scored 18 points and grabbed nine rebounds but it wasn't enough to lead Illinois past #16 Michigan, who won 72-61. Tim Hardaway Jr. scored 25 points and grabbed 11 boards for the Wolverines, who remain alive in the Big Ten title race.

4. Five Mississippi Valley State players reached double figures in scoring but it wasn't enough to lock up an undefeated run through SWAC play as the Delta Devils lost 78-67 at UAPB. Daniel Broughton scored 26 points and grabbed 13 rebounds off the bench to lead the Golden Lions. But regardless of the result Sean Woods' club will enter the conference tournament as the clear favorite to grab the automatic bid.

5. UCLA didn't look too distracted by the Sports Illustrated article that came out earlier this week, as they whipped Washington State 78-46 at the Sports Arena. Lazeric Jones knocked down eight of his ten shots from the field and scored 18 points to lead the Bruins, who host a Washington team looking to wrap up the outright regular season crown on Saturday.

6. Doubleheaders in the Missouri Valley, Ohio Valley and WCC all went according to seed on Thursday night, and if one team were to be pegged as most likely to win on Friday it could be Tennessee Tech. The Golden Eagles held off a Southeast Missouri State rally to win 77-73, and with players such as Kevin Murphy (24 points) and Jud Dillard (18) they've got the horses needed to upset top-seed Murray State in the semis. Also keep an eye on Indiana State, who beat Southern Illinois 65-49 to set up a matchup with MVC champ Wichita State, especially if point guard Jake Odum's foot holds up.

7. Binghamton, who won just one game during the regular season, knocked off eight-seed UMBC 73-67 in overtime to advance to the quarterfinals in the America East tournament. Ben Dickinson led the Bearcats, who will take on regular season champion Stony Brook, with 21 points.

8. Derrick Rudolph led three players in double figures with 21 points in Savannah State's 73-54 win at Maryland-Eastern Shore, wrapping up the Tigers' first-ever MEAC regular season title. The coaches picked Horace Broadnax's team to finish 11th in the preseason.

Thursday Tournament Predictions: A-Sun, Big South, NEC, OVC

Greg Mengelt — Thu, 01 Mar 2012 13:26:26 -0800

Our g ame prediction guru Greg Mengelt has been on fire this year. He'll be picking almost conference tournament game over the next 2 weeks.

BIG SOUTH SEMIFINALS: AT ASHEVILLE

(7) VMI (16-15, 8-10) vs. (6) Winthrop (12-19, 8-10)

Tipoff: 6 p.m. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 7 – Winthrop 91-84; Feb. 4 – VMI 86-79. RPI: VMI 275, Winthrop 264. Analysis: The Keydets have won 4 of 5 and don’t appear to be a fluke after Wednesday’s blowout win over 2-seed Coastal Carolina. Pick: VMI 85, Winthrop 80.

(1) UNC-Asheville (22-9, 16-2) vs. (4) Charleston Southern (19-11, 11-7)

Tipoff: 8 p.m. TV: ESPNU. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 19 – Charleston Southern 93-88*. RPI: Asheville 122, Charleston Southern 178. Analysis: This appears to be the Big South championship, for all intents and purposes. Hard to imagine either side wins by more than five or six. Pick: Asheville 83, Charleston Southern 79.

ATLANTIC SUN QUARTERFINALS: AT MACON, GA.

(4) East Tennessee State (16-13, 10-8) vs. (5) North Florida (16-15, 10-8)

Tipoff: 2:30 p.m. TV: ESPN3. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 16 – ETSU 64-63*; Feb. 11 – ETSU 65-50. RPI: East Tennessee 191, North Florida 168. Analysis: Both teams have won three straight and are playing as well as anyone in the league except Belmont. This one could go either way. Line: East Tennessee State -2. Pick: North Florida 69, East Tennessee State 66.

(3) USC-Upstate (20-11, 13-5) vs. (6) Florida Gulf Coast (13-16, 8-10)

Tipoff: 8:30 p.m. TV: ESPN3. Regular-season meetings: Dec.19 – Upstate 80-75*; Feb. 23 – Upstate 87-74. RPI: Upstate 134, Florida Gulf Coast 237. Analysis: It may be tough to beat a team three times in a season, but not when you’re the significantly better team. Line: Upstate -8. Pick: USC-Upstate 79, Florida Gulf Coast 62.

OHIO VALLEY QUARTERFINALS: AT NASHVILLE

(4) Tennessee Tech (18-12, 9-7) vs. (5) Southeast Missouri State (15-15, 9-7)

Tipoff: 6 p.m. TV: OVCSports.TV. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 21 – Tennessee Tech 77-62. RPI: Tennessee Tech 159, Southeast Missouri State 255. Analysis: Tech is the better team, but with a game under its belt in the tournament, the Redhawks will keep it competitive. Pick: Tennessee Tech 70, Southeast Missouri State 68.

(3) Morehead State (17-14, 10-6) vs. (7) Jacksonville State (14-17, 8-8)

Tipoff: 8 p.m. TV: OVCSports.TV. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 5 – Morehead State 63-55*; Feb. 8 – Jacksonville State 69-55*. RPI: Morehead State 175, 228. Analysis: The Gamecocks are playing very well. This would be a good time to take an underdog straight up. Pick: Jacksonville State 66, Morehead State 62.

NORTHEAST QUARTERFINALS: AT CAMPUS SITES

(8) Sacred Heart (14-17, 8-10) at (1) Long Island (22-8, 16-2)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 5 – Long Island 87-81*; Feb. 16 – Long Island 103-91 (OT). RPI: Sacred Heart 239, Long Island 100. Analysis: Long Island will run its way to a runaway. Line: Long Island -9. Pick: Long Island 91, Sacred Heart 72.

(7) Central Connecticut State (13-15, 10-8) at (2) Wagner (24-5, 15-3)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 14 – Wagner 67-58; Feb. 25 – Central Connecticut 78-61. RPI: Wagner 89, Central Connecticut 225. Analysis: Ignore the records. These teams have similar talent and this one will be close. Line: Wagner -10. Pick: Wagner 74, Central Connecticut 72.

(6) Monmouth (12-19, 10-8) at (3) Robert Morris (22-9, 13-5)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. Regular-season meetings: Dec. 3 – Robert Morris 69-51; Jan. 21 – Robert Morris 81-73 (OT). RPI: Robert Morris 121, Monmouth 235. Analysis: RMU is poised to make a deep run in this tourney. Line: Robert Morris -10. Pick: Robert Morris 76, Monmouth 59.

(5) Quinnipiac (17-12, 10-8) at (4) St. Francis (NY) (15-14, 12-6)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 5 – St. Francis 73-72; Feb. 16 – St. Francis 64-56*. RPI: St. Francis 203, Quinnipiac 169. Analysis: St. Francis got the better of the regular-season matchups, but the Bobcats should move on in the post-season. Line: Quinnipiac -2½. Pick: Quinnipiac 67, St. Francis 64.

*Road win

Greg Against the Spread This Season: 89-59

Wednesday'sTournament Predictions: Atlantic Sun, Big South, Patriot

Greg Mengelt — Tue, 28 Feb 2012 21:18:38 -0800

Our g ame prediction guru Greg Mengelt has been on fire this year. He'll be picking almost conference tournament game over the next 2 weeks.

BIG SOUTH TOURNAMENT AT ASHEVILLE, N.C.

(2) Coastal Carolina (19-10, 12-6) vs. (7) Virginia Military (15-15, 8-10)

Tipoff: Noon. TV: Big South Network. Regular-season meetings: Dec. 1 – Coastal Carolina 87-78; Feb. 25 – Coastal Carolina 81-64*. RPI: Coastal Carolina 179; VMI 287. Analysis: The Chanticleers struggled late in the regular season. With a game under its belt, VMI should be able to keep this game close. Line: Coastal Carolina -6. Pick: Coastal Carolina 73, VMI 64.

(3) Campbell (17-14, 11-7) vs. (6) Winthrop (11-19, 8-10)

Tipoff: 2 p.m. TV: Big South Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 17 – Campbell, 54-51*; Feb. 9 – Campbell, 67-58. RPI: Campbell 201; Winthrop 274. Analysis: Campbell really faded down the stretch. This could be the first conference tournament upset. Line: Campbell -1½. Pick: Campbell 61, Winthrop 60.

(1) UNC-Asheville (21-9, 16-2) vs. (8) High Point (11-19, 6-12)

Tipoff: 6 p.m. TV: Big South Network. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 14 – Asheville, 86-79*; Jan. 26 – Asheville, 90-70. RPI: Asheville 123; High Point 276. Analysis: High Point has more talent than its record indicates and has a chance to keep this game close. Line: Asheville -8½. Pick: Asheville 80, High Point 73.

(4) Charleston Southern (18-11, 11-7) vs. (5) Liberty (14-17, 9-9)

Tipoff: 8 p.m. TV: Big South Network. Regular-season meetings: Dec. 31 – Charleston Southern, 81-76*; Feb. 9 – Liberty 75-74*. RPI: Charleston Southern 178; Liberty 282. Analysis: CSU is the higher seed and has the better record, but Liberty is playing better behind do-everything Jesse Sanders. Line: Charleston Southern -3½. Pick: Liberty 72, Charleston Southern 65.

PATRIOT LEAGUE AT CAMPUS SITES

(8) Navy (3-25, 0-14) at (1) Bucknell (22-8, 12-2)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 28 – Bucknell 66-51*; Feb. 25 – Bucknell 64-55. RPI: Bucknell 83, Navy 328. Analysis: It would take the return of David Robinson for Navy to stay in this game. Line: Bucknell -21½. Pick: Bucknell 80, Navy 51.

(7) Colgate (8-21, 2-12) at (2) Lehigh (23-7, 11-3)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 24 – Lehigh 78-56*; Feb. 11 – Lehigh 89-69. RPI: Lehigh 109, Colgate 300. Analysis: The Hawks will roll into the title game. Line: Lehigh -21½. Pick: Lehigh 75, Colgate 53.

(5) Lafayette (12-17, 7-7) at (4) Holy Cross (15-13, 9-5)

Tipoff: 7 p.m. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 19 – Lafayette 54-43*; Feb. 22 – Holy Cross 70-63*. RPI: Holy Cross 165, Lafayette 210. Analysis: The Crusaders win the rubber match with their seventh straight win. Line: Holy Cross -6½. Pick: Holy Cross 60, Lafayette 55.

(3) American (19-10, 10-4) at (6) Army (12-17, 5-9)

Tipoff: 7:30 p.m. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 21 – American 67-55; American 74-50*. RPI: American 152, Army 300. Analysis: American has won 6 of 8 and the hot play with continue Wednesday. Line: American -13. Pick: American 73, Army 52.

ATLANTIC SUN TOURNAMENT AT MACON, GA.

(1) Belmont (24-7, 16-2) vs. (8) Jacksonville (8-21, 6-12)

Tipoff: 2:30 p.m. TV: ESPN3. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 4 – Belmont 75-63*; Jan. 28 – Belmont 85-51. RPI: Belmont 61, Jacksonville 263. Analysis: Belmont’s explosive offense has led the Bruins to 11 straight wins. Make it 12. Line: Belmont -16. Pick: Belmont 90, Jacksonville 64.

(2) Mercer (21-10, 13-5) vs. (7) Lipscomb (13-17, 8-10)

Tipoff: 8:30 p.m. TV: ESPN3. Regular-season meetings: Dec. 1 – Mercer 79-72*; Feb. 23 – Mercer 63-54. RPI: Mercer 125, Lipscomb 219. Analysis: Mercer has had a nice season, but the Bears aren’t playing well late in the season. Line: Mercer -10. Pick: Mercer 68, Lipscomb 62.

*Road win

Radford, Gardner-Webb the First Casualties: Monday's Quick Hitters

Raphielle Johnson — Mon, 27 Feb 2012 22:21:32 -0800

#12 Georgetown had three players finish in double figures while also frustrating #19 Notre Dame on the other end of the floor in a 59-41 win at the Verizon Center.

1. Conference tournament play is underway with High Point and VMI moving on in the Big South.
The Big South got things going with the bottom four teams facing off for the right to take on top seeds UNC Asheville and Coastal Carolina on Wednesday. It was all chalk on Monday night but not without suspense as #7 VMI and #8 High Point both won at home to advance to the quarterfinals. Stan Okoye's steal with 19 seconds remaining led to the senior making a pair of free throws to push VMI's lead over #10 Radford to 54-51, and after Javonte Green missed the front end of a 1-and-1 the Keydets sealed the 55-53 win with a Ron Burks free throw. Okoye led the Keydets with 16 points and nine rebounds and Keith Gabriel added 11, but it's going to take a lot more to knock off two-seed Coastal Carolina on Wednesday afternoon. CCU swept the regular season series, winning 87-78 on December 1st and 81-64 on Saturday at VMI, limiting the Keydets to 26.5% shooting in the second half.

High Point took advantage of the foul line in their 68-58 win over Gardner-Webb, outscoring the Bulldogs 18-7 from the charity stripe with 15 of those points coming in the second half. Neither team shot well from the field in a game that featured 39 offensive and 82 total rebounds, and the Panthers were helped by 17 second-half bench points. Tashan Newsome paced GWU with 21 points but no other Bulldogs reached double figures, compared to Nick Barbour leading three Panthers in double figures with 22. Corey Law was huge off the bench for High Point as he finished with 16 points and 11 rebounds in 25 minutes of play. HPU gets the regular season champ UNC Asheville, who swept the season series (86-79 at HPU, 90-70 at UNCA), on Wednesday night.

2. Not sure which All-America team Tyshawn Taylor ends up on but the senior deserves a mention.
Remember when the Kansas point guard was struggling mightily with turnovers earlier this season? Well Taylor's play of late has the New Jersey native looking like an All-America candidate, and his 27 points were a big reason why Bill Self's Jayhawks left Oklahoma State with a 70-58 win. The result locked up the outright regular season crown for Kansas, who won despite nine points combined from Travis Releford and Elijah Johnson. Keiton Page did his best to deliver the win on Senior Night by scoring 29 points but outside of Brian Williams (20 points) the Cowboys didn't have enough firepower with Le'Bryan Nash injured. Taylor shot 10-for-15 from the field, including 4-for-7 from beyond the arc, in his third 20-plus point performance in the last five games. Over the last two games Taylor's shot 60.7% from the field, and while the point totals may not be as high in future games an efficient Taylor means a better Kansas.

3. Savannah State is now just one win away from completing a remarkable season in the MEAC.
With this being the first season for Savannah State as a member of the MEAC there wasn't much expected of Horace Broadnax's Tigers as they were picked to finish 11th. But thanks to a 62-50 win over North Carolina A&T the Tigers are now 13-2 in MEAC play and a win in their regular season finale away from winning the regular season crown. Savannah State took a 42-28 lead into the half thanks to their effort on the defensive end, limiting A&T to 34.5% shooting from the field and 7-for-19 from two. Deric Rudolph scored 15 points and Preston Blackmon added 14 to lead the way for the Tigers, who rode their defense in the second half to survive shooting 27.6% from the field. A win over UMES on Saturday would give Savannah State the most unlikely conference title in the nation this season, and while their goal isn't to go to the NIT this season a postseason berth for a program that was 0-28 seven years ago is a noteworthy achievement.

Quick Hitters

1. With Southern ineligible for the SWAC tournament it's become apparent that Texas Southern is the biggest threat to Mississippi Valley State grabbing the automatic bid. Omar Strong scored 17 points and Madarious Gibbs 14 to go along with five steals in the Tigers' 69-59 win over Alabama A&M to move to 11-5 in league play. How much of a threat Texas Southern (or anyone else for that matter) is remains to be seen however, as the Delta Devils have run through the SWAC (17-0 record).

2. #10 Baylor went on a 25-4 run to close the first half in their 77-48 pasting of an overmatched Texas Tech squad. The win was also the 95th for seniors Quincy Acy, Fred Ellis and Anthony Jones, and they're the winningest class in school history.

3. The most exciting team to watch in the upcoming MEAC tournament may in fact be Delaware State, who fell 73-72 to Morgan State on Monday night (to say the finish was controversial would be accurate). Over the last seven games for the Hornets four have been decided by three points or less and two others have gone to overtime.

4. One reserve to keep an eye on in the WCC tournament this weekend is Gonzaga's Gary Bell Jr. Of course the caliber of the opposition (Longwood) needs to be considered, but Bell Jr. scored 20 points in just 15 minutes of action in the Bulldogs' 92-60 win. If Gonzaga can get solid play from Bell Jr. in Las Vegas a tournament crown is definitely possible.

5. Eastern Illinois announced on Monday that it will not renew the contract of head coach Mike Miller after the season, marking the end of his tenure. Miller is 75-130 in seven seasons at the OVC school, and the Panthers finished the season with a 12-17 record (5-11 OVC).

6. Connecticut head coach Jim Calhoun underwent a successful procedure in New York on Monday to treat the spinal stenosis that has kept him away from the team for the Huskies' last seven games. According to the Associated Press, Calhoun hopes to rejoin the team in time for their regular season finale against Pittsburgh on Saturday.

#8 Georgetown vs. #18 Notre Dame: Monday's Preview

Raphielle Johnson — Sun, 26 Feb 2012 21:01:03 -0800

The current era of college sports means that fans have become used to conference foes meeting for the first time in a season in late February, as is the case with #18 Notre Dame (20-9, 12-4) visiting #8 Georgetown (21-6, 11-5) on Monday night. Both teams lost games in the tri-state area over the last five days with the Hoyas getting blown out at Seton Hall and Notre Dame losing at St. John's on Saturday, but these are still teams that can make noise in New York next week. On the line at the Verizon Center is (at the very least) the inside track for one of the two remaining double-byes in the Big East Championship, a perk Mike Brey's team would clinch with a win.

Neither team was expected to be in this position early in the season, with the prognosticators selecting the Hoyas to finish tenth in the Big East and Notre Dame expected by many to be an NIT team (or worse) when Tim Abromaitis went down with a torn ACL. That's why both head coaches, Brey and John Thompson III, have to be considered Big East Coach of the Year candidates and while the teams have different styles the tempo's about the same. Georgetown will use their big man, senior center Henry Sims, as a distributor within their system and he's done well in the role.

Sims leads the team with an average of 3.4 assists per game while also scoring 11.3 points and grabbing 5.5 rebounds, a far cry from the numbers he put up in his first three seasons as a Hoya. Sims' emergence has relieved some of the pressure on Jason Clark and Hollis Thompson offensively while also giving Georgetown an added dimension at the five that was missing with Julian Vaughn there last season. Both Clark and Thompson, who lead the team in scoring, shoot better than 48% from the field and no Hoya who averages 19 minutes or more per game shoots worse than 45.5%.

Notre Dame has become well-known for their "burn" offense, a system first instituted when Luke Harangody went down with a knee injury two seasons ago. The move got the Irish to the NCAA tournament that season, but at this point it's difficult to figure out if Notre Dame is running the special offense of if this is just how they play at this stage. Young guards Eric Atkins and Jerian Grant have been major factors for the Irish, and their maturation has resulted in Notre Dame being a better team than many anticipated. The primary frontcourt scorer is Jack Cooley, a 6'9" forward who has no problem with physical play and shoots 62.8% from the field.

One area the Hoyas have to keep an eye on defensively is the three-point line, as Notre Dame has some players who can get hot from deep. Their percentage of 33.2% may not be the best (Georgetown shoots 35.1%) but Notre Dame isn't shy about putting shots up, with Atkins, Pat Connaughton and Alex Dragicevich being three of the most likely options. The Irish have done a good job of taking care of the basketball (10.0 turnovers per game) and they'll need to continue that against a Georgetown team that forces turnovers on 20.8% of their opponents' possessions as well as keep the Hoyas off the offensive glass (Hoyas have an OR% of 36.4%) in order to win.

#5 Kansas will look to keep on the right track towards a one-seed in the NCAA tournament with a win at Oklahoma State, and #14 Baylor shouldn't have a problem with Texas Tech in Waco. Mississippi Valley State looks to move to 17-0 in SWAC play as they visit Jackson State, with last week's hero (Paul Crosby) having the versatility to have an impact in multiple facets of the area.

In the MEAC there are two games remaining in the regular season with three teams separated by a game atop the standings. Savannah State (12-2) hosts North Carolina A&T while Delaware State (11-3) hosts Morgan State and Norfolk State (11-3) visits Florida A&M. NSU's Kyle O'Quinn is the likely Player of the Year but he and his teammates have a little work to do if they're to win the regular season crown.

The most important games on Monday take place in the Big South as seeds seven through ten meet in the first round of the Big South tournament. Radford, who has had a tough season due to the lack of success on the court along with NCAA sanctions being handed down, visits a VMI team that swept the regular season series but by a total of just nine points. The second meeting, a 65-60 VMI win at Radford, featured 42 combined turnovers with the Highlanders squandering a 52.6% first half with 16 turnovers. If Radford can slow down Stan Okoye they'll have a shot, and RU's Javonte Green put up 23 and 11 in that meeting.

The other first round game matches Gardner-Webb and High Point, who split their season series with the home team winning each meeting by four points. Scott Cherry's Panthers won 81-77 in overtime on February 4th, shooting an impressive 15-for-28 from beyond the arc to make up from their 32% shooting from inside of it. Nick Barbour was on fire in that contest as he scored 34 points, making seven of ten shots from three-point range. It's pretty clear who the Bulldogs are going to focus on slowing down Monday night. Tashan Newsome is the lone Bulldog averaging double figures (12.0 ppg) but four Gardner-Webb players finished in double figures in the February meeting.

Top 25 Games
9:00 PM (5) Kansas at Oklahoma State (ESPN)
7:00 PM (18) Notre Dame at (8) Georgetown (ESPN)
9:00 PM Texas Tech at (14) Baylor (ESPNU)

NCAA Division I Games
7:00 PM Mississippi Valley State at Jackson State (ESPNU)
7:00 PM Radford at VMI
7:30 PM Norfolk State at Florida A&M
7:30 PM Hampton at Bethune-Cookman
7:30 PM Morgan State at Delaware State
7:30 PM Gardner-Webb at High Point
7:30 PM Coppin State at Maryland-Eastern Shore
7:30 PM North Carolina Central at South Carolina State
8:00 PM Texas-Pan American at North Dakota (FCS)
8:00 PM North Carolina A&T at Savannah State
8:30 PM Alabama State at Prairie View A&M
9:00 PM Northern Arizona at Montana State
9:00 PM Longwood at Gonzaga (ROOT)
9:00 PM Alabama A&M at Texas Southern
9:00 PM Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Grambling State

College Hoops Thursday: Your Commentary

Raphielle Johnson — Thu, 01 Dec 2011 13:15:49 -0800

Thursday's schedule is highlighted by the first night of the SEC/Big East Invitational, and while the marquee games are tomorrow there are solid match ups to keep track of tonight. At the top of that list has to be Georgetown (5-1) heading south to take on #12 Alabama (7-0), and the question will be what John Thompson III's big men can do against JaMychal Green (15.5 ppg, 8.0 rpg) and Tony Mitchell (14.4 ppg, 7.6 rpg). To say the least this will be a tall task for Henry Sims, Nate Lubick and the rest of the Georgetown frontcourt, as Mitchell is one of the best athletes in the game and Green is considered to be one of the top interior players in the SEC.

Sims is averaging 13.5 points and 5.8 rebounds per game, and his ability to step out on the perimeter in Georgetown's system makes him a tough cover when on. But his performance will need to be consistent if the Hoyas are to have a serious shot at leaving Tuscaloosa with the win, and the season goes for Lubick. Georgetown will also use the versatile freshman Otto Porter (9.7 ppg, 6.5 rpg) and classmate Greg Whittington, and it's going to have to be a group effort as it wouldn't be realistic to expect any of these four to rise to the level of a Green or Mitchell on their own.

The guard play should also be entertaining, and in Georgetown's Jason Clark (17.0 ppg, 3.7 rpg) and Alabama's Trevor Releford (11.6 ppg, 2.4 apg) there will be two of the better guards in their respective leagues on display. Clark's really had to step up his offensive production with Austin Freeman and Chris Wright moving on, becoming more of a scorer in his senior campaign. Outside of he and wing Hollis Thompson (14.7 ppg, 5.8 rpg) the Hoyas are young on the perimeter, as they look to the likes of Markel Starks and Jabril Trawick for minutes.

As for Releford (11.6 ppg, 2.4 apg), he leads a young backcourt with just one season of experience under his belt. Freshmen Levi Randolph, Trevor Lacey and Rodney Cooper are all capable of being outstanding players for Anthony Grant in the future, and each has shown the ability to make plays now as well. The one concern for the Crimson Tide has to be the fact that they essentially break even in their averages for assists and turnovers per game, and Georgetown's opponents have averaged 15.5 turnovers per game this season. Both teams are good at attacking the offensive boards, but the Hoyas will need to take advantage of their superiority in offensive efficiency and valuing the basketball if they're to pick up what would be a big road victory.

Also playing in the SEC/Big East Invitational tonight is top-ranked Kentucky, which hosts a St. John's team even younger than their rotation and lacking the depth that John Calipari's group brings to the table. A prohibitive favorite to win tonight, this is a good test for the Wildcats from a maturity standpoint. Terrence Jones, Doron Lamb and Darius Miller need to lead Kentucky and make sure there aren't any signs of the team looking ahead to Saturday's game against North Carolina. Providence visits South Carolina and DePaul host Ole Miss in the other two games on the docket.

But the bigger deal on Thursday night is the start of conference play in multiple conferences that tend to play their league tournaments on the first weekend of "Championship Fortnight" (nearly 12 days is not a "Week"). In the NEC games between St. Francis (NY) and Mount St. Mary's and Wagner visiting LIU will help shape the league race that takes a break until January after this weekend. In the Big South, defending regular season champion Coastal Carolina begins their quest to finally get to the NCAA Tournament after squandering opportunities in each of the last two seasons with VMI coming to town, and defending Big South Tournament champ UNC Asheville opens at Gardner-Webb. And Liberty at Campbell should be another solid opening night tilt in the Big South.

Play in the Atlantic Sun, Horizon, MAAC, SoCon and Summit leagues also begins tonight, with gems including South Dakota State at IUPUI (Summit), Cleveland State at Wright State (Horizon) and Davidson visiting defending champion Wofford (SoCon) highlighting the slate. The conference games for this weekend may not get the major highlights on ESPN, but these are incredibly important games. League titles aren't lost on this weekend, but an 0-2 start makes it far tougher to win a conference title when getting back to that business a couple weeks from now.

Top 25 Games
7:30 PM St. John's at (1) Kentucky (ESPN2)
9:30 PM Georgetown at (12) Alabama (ESPN2)

NCAA Division I Games
5:30 PM UNC Asheville at Gardner-Webb
7:00 PM South Dakota State at IUPUI
7:00 PM St. Francis (NY) at Mount St. Mary's
7:00 PM Arkansas State at St. Bonaventure
7:00 PM Harvard at Vermont
7:00 PM Chattanooga at Georgia Southern
7:00 PM VMI at Coastal Carolina
7:00 PM Liberty at Campbell
7:00 PM Eastern Michigan at Colgate
7:00 PM Youngstown State at Detroit
7:00 PM Lehigh at Fordham
7:00 PM FIU at Georgia State
7:00 PM Savannah State at Hampton
7:00 PM Morehead State at Kent State
7:00 PM Wagner at Long Island
7:00 PM South Dakota at Oakland
7:00 PM Winthrop at Presbyterian
7:00 PM Sacred Heart at Quinnipiac
7:00 PM Fairleigh Dickinson at Robert Morris
7:00 PM Providence at South Carolina (ESPNU)
7:00 PM Monmouth at St. Francis (PA)
7:00 PM Siena at St. Peter's
7:00 PM Davidson at Wofford (ESPN3)
7:00 PM Cleveland State at Wright State
7:00 PM Central Connecticut State at Bryant (MSG+)
7:00 PM Jacksonville State at USC Upstate
7:15 PM East Tennessee State at Stetson
7:30 PM UMBC at American
7:30 PM Radford at Charleston Southern
7:30 PM Marist at Loyola (MD)
7:30 PM UMKC at IPFW
8:00 PM Murray State at Western Kentucky
8:00 PM Citadel at Charleston (ESPN3)
8:00 PM Loyola (IL) at Milwaukee (ESPN3)
8:00 PM Texas Tech at Texas A&M-CC (ESPN3)
8:00 PM UNC Greensboro at Appalachian State
8:00 PM George Washington at Kansas State (ESPN3)
8:00 PM Western Carolina at Samford
8:00 PM Middle Tennessee at Tennessee State
8:00 PM North Dakota State at Western Illinois
8:00 PM UIC at Green Bay (ESPN3)
8:05 PM McNeese State at Louisiana-Lafayette
8:05 PM Cal State Fullerton at Wichita State
8:15 PM Mercer at Lipscomb
8:15 PM Kennesaw State at Belmont
9:00 PM San Francisco at Montana
9:00 PM Ole Miss at DePaul (ESPNU)
9:00 PM Paul Quinn at Sam Houston State
9:05 PM Westminster UT at Northern Colorado
10:10 PM Stanford at Seattle

Poll: Who Will Win the Big South?

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 09:23:59 -0700

Big South Tournament Preview: Radford the Favorite

Evan Dorey — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 15:46:12 -0800

This is the first in a series of conference tournament previews I’ll be doing for CollegeHoops.net, in which I run down all the teams involved, giving a breif statistical review and picking out some of the key players, and presenting the log5 projections, using in-conference offensive and defensive efficiency.The basic log5 methodology comes from Bill James, and this is an area Ken Pomeroy has looked at in the past as well. I claim nothing new in the application, but obviously with slightly different methodologies, these numbers may differ from others you find. Anyway, with no further ado, the preview follows below:

Big South

The Big South Tournament features the top 8 teams out of a 10 team league, with the quarterfinals being hosted at the home courts of the top 4 seeds, the semifinals at the regular season champion, Radford, and the final held at the highest remaining seed. Presbyterian is ineligible for the conference tournament.

Tournament Odds

#	Team	SF	F	W
1	Radford	95.02%	82.91%	67.71%
2	Virginia Military Inst	84.48%	42.44%	12.06%
3	Liberty	74.55%	41.85%	12.56%
4	NC Asheville	74.07%	12.51%	4.08%
5	Winthrop	25.93%	3.24%	0.82%
6	Gardner Webb	25.45%	11.64%	2.18%
7	Coastal Carolina	15.52%	4.07%	0.43%
8	High Point	4.98%	1.33%	0.15%

Radford are hosting every game they play, so should be clear favorites to win. VMI and Liberty are close for the second spot, and should contest a good semifinal if both survive. There’s just an 8% chance of somebody outside the top 3 grabbing the bid, with most of that belonging to Asheville.

#1 – Radford Highlanders (18-11, 15-3) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.112

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1998 (1^st Round)

The Highlanders feature the Big South’s best defense, holding their opponents under 40% from the field, and doing an excellent job both inside and outside. They also do well on the defensive glass, and rarely foul, so the fact they force very few turnovers doesn’t hurt them. Offensively, Radford rarely takes threes, and has a lot of problems with turnovers, but lead the league on the glass and in getting to the free throw line.

Players to watch:

6-11 JR Arstiom Parakhouski, 16.0 PPG, 11.0 RPG, 1.2 BPG, 54.7 eFG% - The Belarusian big man leads the team in both scoring and rebounding, and is one of only two players in the conference to average a double-double. He’s a solid shot blocker as well, but his shooting percentage isn’t that great for a big guy.

6-8 JR Joey Lynch-Flohr, 13.7 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 52.7 eFG% - Another quality scoring forward, he’s not as good a rebounder as Parakhouski, but shoots a similar percentage and is a solid second option.

#2 – Virginia Military Institute Keydets (22-7, 13-5) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.045

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1977 (Sweet 16)

VMI started the season 11-2 in conference, and after beating Kentucky in the non-conference, looked like they might be on course for the league title, but things fell apart a bit down the stretch, and the Keydets find themselves in second spot. This is easily the nation’s fastest paced team, the only one averaging more than 80 possessions a game, and it takes more than 50% of its shots from behind the arc. The Keydets hold on to the ball exceptionally well despite their speed of play, and shoot a good percentage inside and outside. The problem is on the other end, as their fast pace forces a lot of turnovers, but also results in the third-worst two-point defense, and the second-worst defensive rebounding in the nation.

Players to watch:

6-4 SR Chavis Holmes, 22.1 PPG, 4.6 RPG,3.2 SPG, 61.5 eFG% - The first of the Holmes twins is the nation’s second ranked player in steals, and while his big average numbers are mostly a result of the team’s fast pace, he’s a very good percentage player as well, and the conference’s best three-point shooter.

6-4 SR Travis Holmes, 19.0 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 4.3 APG, 3.3 SPG, 54.4 eFG% - They may be identical twins, but Travis’ game features better ball movement and somewhat weaker shooting

#3 – Liberty Flames (21-10, 12-6) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.052

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2004 (1^st Round)

Like VMI, Liberty shoot a huge percentage of their shots from behind the arc, nearly 50%, but they make a higher percentage from inside. The conference’s second best offense also depends on good free throw shooting and avoiding turnovers to make up for poor offensive rebounding. The Flames struggle on the defensive interior, allowing a high percentage of shots and getting few defensive rebounds. One notable thing they do well is avoid fouling; only a handful of teams in the country send opponents to the line less often than Liberty.

Players to watch:

6-5 SR Anthony Smith, 17.2 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 59.0 eFG% - Smith doesn’t start, but is the second leading scorer and leading rebounder for the Flames. He’s just 6-5, but shoots over 60% from inside the arc, while being a nice outside shooter as well.

6-3 FR Seth Curry, 20.7 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 51.1 eFG% - He’s no Stephen Curry, at least not yet, but he’s still a pretty remarkable player in his own right, the only freshman in the nation averaging over 20 PPG. Seth doesn’t have a long way to go to reach the same level as his brother, just needing to increase his two-point percentage.

#4 – NC Asheville Bulldogs (14-15, 10-8) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.011

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2003 (1^st Round)

Asheville seemed like it was doomed to the bottom half after starting the conference season 5-6, but put together a solid record since then to earn a home game in the tournament. The Bulldogs have a good offense, making a nice percentage of shots from inside and outside. They struggle with defence, though, with only VMI worse out of the tournament teams. The Bulldogs have real troubles inside, where they are weak on the glass and allow conference opponents to shoot nearly 50%.

Players to watch:

6-4 SO John Williams, 13.0 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 2.4 BPG, 56.3 eFG% - Williams is the team’s most efficient scorer; he does all of his work inside, and is an excellent shot-blocker, quite impressive for a 6-4 player, even in a smaller league like the Big South.

6-6 SR Reid Augst, 15.1 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 50.7 eFG% - Augst is the team’s leading scorer, but struggles from behind the arc, where he shoots below 30%. Like Williams, his offensive play is best inside the arc.

#5 – Winthrop Eagles (11-18, 9-9) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.023

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2008 (1^st Round)

Winthrop have represented the Big South in each of the last four NCAA tournaments, but its chances are very thin after a tough season. A strong finish will give Eagle fans some hope, but this is still a work in progress. Their problem is offense, as Winthrop is simply abysmal at making shots. They shoot just 41% overall, and rarely make threes or get to the free throw line. The reason that they’ve managed to stay nearly at .500 is defense; the Eagles are the second best defenders in the conference tournament. They are the Big South’s best shot-blockers and typically get opponents to shoot a lot of threes, where they are good defenders as well.

Players to watch:

6-2 FR Andre Jones, 8.9 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 42.8 eFG% - Jones is the team’s third leading scorer, but has been an inefficient player, especially with two-point shots, where he is well below 40%. He’s Winthrop’s best long-distance shooting option, but at 36%, that’s a bit of a back-handed compliment.

6-7 SO Charles Corbin, 9.3 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 47.2 eFG% - Corbin’s numbers are modest, but he’s the team’s top scorer and rebounder. He was slowed somewhat with injuries in mid-February, but has had some big games, including a double-double against Radford. If he can find some form, the Eagles can cause opponents a lot of trouble.

#6 – Gardner Webb Bulldogs (13-16, 9-9) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.013

Last NCAA Tournament bid: None

Gardner Webb looked good at 7-5, but losing four straight conference games cost it a first round home game. The Bulldogs are a deserved mid-table team, boasting both a middle-of-the-road offense and defense. They depend a lot on outside play, making 35% of threes and rarely turning the ball over, while forcing a fair number of turnovers themselves and allowing over 50% of opponents’ attempts from inside the arc.

Players to watch:

6-3 SR Aaron Linn, 14.7 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 3.1 APG, 1.9 SPG, 48.7 eFG% - Linn leads the team in scoring, and just barely makes enough shots to stay reasonably efficient. He’s a better threat from inside than outside, and is also the team leader in steals.

6-0 JR Grayson Flittner, 14.6 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 4.0 APG, 49.1 eFG% - Flittner was the Bulldogs’ leading scorer when he suffered a knee injury, and while he returned earlier in the month, he has struggled since, just 10-for-his-last-43 from the field.

#7 – Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (11-19, 5-13) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.049

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1993 (1^st Round)

Coastal Carolina are pretty much mediocre across the board, and it adds up to a mediocre season. The Chanticleers are good offensive rebounders, but their shooting is inconsistent, and they tend to give up a lot of steals. Defensively, they have trouble stopping the long distance-shot, and are below average in most other areas. When they do win, it’s usually because they’ve made a lot of shots, especially from two, where they are occasionally quite dangerous.

Players to watch:

6-5 JR Joseph Harris, 15.5 PPG, 11.3 RPG, 1.5 SPG, 1.2 BPG, 57.3 eFG% - I can’t pretend to be an expert on the conference, but Joseph Harris has to be a factor in the Big South player of the year race with his numbers. One of only two Big South players to average a double-double, Harris leads the conference in rebounds, and leads his team in points, steals and blocks as well. He’s a high-percentage inside shooter who gets to the free-throw line a lot, and will be a handful for any opponent.

6-5 SO Anthony Breeze, 10.3 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 56.2 eFG% - Another strong interior scorer, Breeze is second on the team in points, but would be a lot closer if his free throw shooting wasn’t an abysmal 52%. Interestingly, he doesn’t start, and is just 6^th on the team in minutes, but from an outside perspective I really couldn’t tell you why, he’s the Chanticleers most efficient non-Harris player.

#8 – High Point Panthers (9-20, 4-14) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.083

Last NCAA Tournament bid: None

With Presbyterian ineligible, a 9^th place finish was enough for a young High Point team to sneak in as the #8 seed, despite an fairly poor record. The Panthers have struggled to score all season, committing a lot of turnovers and making less than 42% of field goal attempts, including under 30% from behind the arc. One bright spot on both sides of the ball is rebounding, where High Point is very good. Their defense is decent, good at forcing turnovers and reasonable defending shots, but unlike another weak offensive team, Winthrop, it’s nothing special, and can’t make up for the lack of scoring.

Players to watch:

6-11 JR Cruz Daniels, 7.9 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 2.7 BPG, 63.0 eFG% - Daniels isn’t a key player in the offense, only reaching double digits on a few occasions, but does just about everything else you could ask of a big man. He’s an excellent rebounder, with his relatively low minutes somewhat masking excellent rebounding rates, and the conference’s best shot-blocker. When he does attempt to score, he’s high percentage, over 60% from the field, but he doesn’t get to the free throw line much for a big guy.

6-2 FR Nick Barbour, 14.4 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 48.6 eFG% - The team’s leading scorer, Barbour is High Point’s only legitimate three-point threat, and he hits just enough to make up for a weak performance inside the arc.

My statistical all-Big South team:

VMI G SR Chavis Holmes, 22.1 PPG, 4.6 RPG,3.2 SPG, 61.5 eFG%

Liberty G SR Anthony Smith, 17.2 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 59.0 eFG%

Liberty G FR Seth Curry, 20.7 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 51.1 eFG%

Coastal Carolina F JR Joseph Harris, 15.5 PPG, 11.3 RPG, 1.5 SPG, 1.2 BPG, 57.3 eFG%

VMI F SR Travis Holmes, 19.0 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 4.3 APG, 3.3 SPG, 54.4 eFG%