William & Mary

CAA First Round Preview

CHN — Thu, 01 Mar 2012 13:46:47 -0800

By Robert Canady: robert_canady@msn.com

The Colonial Athletic Conference tournament begins Friday in Richmond, VA. The conference’s top four teams, Drexel (regular season champions) George Mason, Virginia Commonwealth and Old Dominion all have byes into the tournaments quarterfinals on Saturday. We will take a closer look at them later in the week. Here is a look at the first round matchups.

Game 1: #8 James Madison 12-19 (5-13) vs. #9 UNCW 9-20 (5-13) 12:00 pm

The two teams only met once in the conference season and that was a 69-61 JMU victory in Wilmington, NC on January 18^th. Senior guard Humpty Hitchens who had a career high 27 points in the win led the Dukes in scoring. Redshirt junior guard A.J. Davis also contributed 18 points and a career high eight rebounds. Kieth Rendleman the CAA’s fifth leading scorer (15.6) had 12 points to go along with 18 rebounds for the Seahawks.

While the teams may have finished in the lower half of the conference, the game could offer some good individual offensive performances. Four of the top league’s top 10 scorers will be in the matchup: JMU’s Davis 4^th and Hitchens 7^th along with UNCW’s Rendleman 5^th and Adam Smith 10^th.

Both teams finished season with an equal record in conference play. A key to the matchup may be determined from behind the 3-pt arc. JMU is second in the conference in three-point percentage. They are making a conference leading average of 7.8 per game and shooting .362 percent from 3-point range. UNCW on the other hand trails only Drexel and VCU in three-point defense, allowing only .314 percent.

Coaches: James Madison is coached by Matt Brady who is in his fourth year at the helm. Buzz Peterson, a member of North Carolina’s 1982 national championship team, is completing his second year as the Seahawks head coach. Pick: JMU 58 UNCW 52

Game 2: #5 Delaware 17-12 (12-6) vs. #12 Towson 1-30 (1-17) 2:30 pm

These two teams will be meeting for the third time this year and second time in the past nine days. Delaware won the first meeting of the year 62-43 in Newark. The Tigers played the Blue Hens much closer on February 22^nd in Towson before falling 76-69, a game that wasn’t decided until the last minute. In that game, Delaware freshman Jarvis Threatt scored a season high 29 points including 16 of 19 from the free throw line. Towson kept the result in doubt until the end, in part due to seven combined three-pointers from sophomore Marcus Damas (21 points) and freshman Kris Walden (18 points.)

There is a stat that no team that has played on Friday has made it to the final game of the tournament. Delaware is a team that is fully capable of pulling off that task. The Blue Hens enter the game on an eight game winning streak that started with a 65-60 victory over George Mason. They and Drexel are the only two CAA teams not to have lost during the month of February.

Delaware under head coach Monte’ Ross is loaded with offensive firepower. Threatt has been named CAA Rookie of the Week four times since January 23^rd. Sophomore Devon Saddler is second in the conference in scoring at 18.7 points per game. Junior Jamelle Hagins adds 12.7 points a game and guard Kyle Anderson leads the team and all freshman in the conference with 64 three pointers.

Coaches: Towson has begun rebuilding under first year head coach Pat Skerry. Despite the inexperienced roster that has only one scholarship letter winner, the Tigers have played very hard and taken a few of the league’s top teams down to the wire. Better days are ahead for the Tigers in the tournament, but this year most likely will not be one of them. Pick: Delaware 71 Towson 55

Game 3: #7 Northeastern 13-16 (9-9) vs. #10 William & Mary 6-25 (4-14) 6:00 pm

This may be the least intriguing game of the first day matchups. The two teams split the season series each winning at home, Northeastern prevailing 64-50 in January and William & Mary winning big 79-54 on February 11^th. Northeastern started the conference season with a promising 5-2 mark before losing six of their next eight games. They also had non-conference wins against, St. Johns, Boston University and Southern Illinois. In addition, Northeastern knocked George Mason out of a first place tie with Drexel in the second to last game of the season with an 85-82 Overtime victory at home.

Junior guard Jonathan Lee leads the Huskies. Lee provides constant on court leadership, as he was second in the CAA this year with 35.7 minutes played per game. He is also the team’s leading scorer contributing 14.6 points per game. Junior Joel Smith, who is the Huskies second leading scorer with 12.9 points per game, compliments Lee in the backcourt. Both players are capable of taking over a game and putting up big numbers. Smith ended the regular season averaging 20.7 points a game over his last four games and had a season high 29 points in the victory over St. Johns. Lee was very consistent all season, scoring in double figures in all but three games and two of those he had nine points. Lee had a season high 27 points in the win over George Mason.

The Tribe has a combination of experience and youth. Senior Quinn McDowell leads the way with 12.7 points per game and freshman Marcus Thornton is close behind with 11.1 per game. Thornton seems to thrive on tough completion as he had a team season high 28 points against VCU on February 1^st and scored 23 on the road against George Mason in January. McDowell for his part had 27 points against UNCW and 26 on the road at Towson.

Coaches: Bill Coen is completing his sixth season as head coach at Northeastern. Tony Shaver is in his 9^th year at William & Mary. He took his team to the 2010 NIT and is a two time (2008, 2010) CAA Coach of the Year. Pick: Northeastern 64 William & Mary 50

Game 4: #6 Georgia St. 20-10 (11-7) vs. #11 Hofstra 10-21 (3-15) 8:30 pm

Because of the CAA’s unbalanced schedule, these teams only met once and that was not until the 13^th conference game of the season in which Georgia St. won easily on the road in Hempstead, NY. Georgia State has had a roller coaster season if ever a team has had one. After losing all three games in the season opening World Vision Classic in Seattle Washington, they won 11 games in a row. That included a 5 -1 mark to start the conference part of the season. They played a killer stretch of three games in five days against Drexel at home, then VCU and George Mason on the road. The Panthers hit a bit of a mid season swoon as they dropped four out of five games in late January, including a double overtime loss at Delaware. Speaking of overtime, Georgia St. might be the only team in the country that has lost three conference overtime games in the same season. The first two of those came against the Blue Hens of Delaware.

Hofstra finished 3-15 in the conference but had their most impressive outing of the year in the season finale, a 93-64 win at home over UNCW. Hofstra boasts the CAA’s leading scorer, senior guard Mike Moore. Moore averaged a league best 20.7 points per game and had three outings of over 30 points, including the win over UNCW. Moore finished third in the conference with 79 three-pointers on the season including six in the season finale.

Coaches: Ron Hunter is in his first year as head coach at Georgia St. and has garnered some talk as a Coach of the Year candidate in leading the Panthers to 20 wins after taking over a team that had an 11-18 campaign last year. Mo Cassara completes his second season as Hofstra’s coach. He had a very successful first season leading the Pride to a 21-12 record. Pick: Georgia St. 78-69

Quarterfinals Saturday March 3^rd

#1 Drexel vs. JMU/UNCW winner 12:00 pm

#4 ODU vs. Delaware/Towson winner 2:30 pm

#2 VCU vs. Northeastern/William & Mary winner 6:00 pm

#3 George Mason vs. Georgia St/Hofstra winner 8:30 pm

Semifinals Sunday March 4^th

Drexel/JMU/UNCW vs. ODU/Towson/Delaware winner 2:00 pm

VCU/Northeastern/William & Mary vs. George Mason/Georgia St/Hofstra winner 4:30 pm

Championship Game Monday March 5^th at 7:00 pm

Wednesday's Preview: Texas at #6 North Carolina

Raphielle Johnson — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 21:38:23 -0800

Rick Barnes' Texas (9-2) Longhorns have gotten off to a solid start despite heavy personnel losses from last year's NCAA Tournament team, but outside of a neutral-court win over NC State there aren't any decisions that jump off the page. Can't credit Santa with this pre-Christmas "gift" but they've got a great opportunity to pick up a quality win as they visit #6 North Carolina (10-2). One key for Texas' prospects this season is the play of freshman point guard Myck Kabongo (10.8 ppg, 6.0 apg), and the Canadian has shown signs by the game that he'll be alright.

But in sophomore Kendall Marshall (10.2 apg, 4.1 A/T ratio) he'll take on one of the elite distributors in the game. Marshall has more than a few weapons at his disposal, but the fact that he's so good at finding teammates in the best position for them to be successful is a big reason why he's so highly regarded. But he can be had on the defensive end of the floor, and with J'Covan Brown (19.3 ppg, 4.3 apg) likely to draw the attention of North Carolina's best perimeter defender in Dexter Strickland maybe Kabongo can take advantage of this.

The key for Brown in his development is that he's become more of a team guy for Texas, most notably eliminating the immaturity that took away from his game during his early days in the program. They've needed him to become more of a leader and the junior has taken steps in that direction. Also of importance for Texas on the perimeter is Sheldon McClellan (11.5 ppg, 3.9 rpg), who could get the call in defending UNC wing Harrison Barnes (16.1 ppg, 4.4 rpg). McClellan will need to make Barnes dribble for his shots as opposed to working off the catch or one dribble. It's been well-documented that his efficiency drops a great deal when required to work more for his own shot.

The interior play is where Texas will need to step up in order to knock off the Tar Heels, who grabbed 72 rebounds in their win over Nicholls State on Monday (Texas is far superior to Nicholls State, however). John Henson (14.5 ppg, 10.3 rpg, 3.4 bpg) and Tyler Zeller (14.5 ppg, 8.2 rpg) lead the way for a deep UNC front line, and the Heels' rebounding margin of plus-8.7 is better than the Longhorns' plus-5.6. However both teams have been good at hitting the offensive glass, with Texas corralling 41.9% of their misses while North Carolina has an offensive rebounding percentage of 39.6%.

Alexis Wangmene, Jonathan Holmes and Clint Chapman average a combined 16.3 rebounds per game, and with the scoring options that Texas has Chapman and Wangmene are needed more for defensive and rebounding purposes (Holmes ranks fourth on the team in scoring). Freshman Jaylen Bond (5.2 ppg, 4.5 rpg) has improved his play of late and that will need to continue if Texas is to win. North Carolina will also throw a few perimeter weapons at Texas off the bench, with P.J. Hairston and Reggie Bullock being two of the better shooters in the ACC while James Michael McAdoo is another interior presence off the bench. Whether or not Texas can hang around could depend on what the likes of Bond and Sterling Gibbs do, and they've got the talent needed to do so.

Another big game on the schedule for Wednesday is Seton Hall visiting Dayton, a team that's put together two drastically different products on the floor this season. At times Archie Miller's Flyers have the look of a team that can beat almost anyone, and they're just as capable of looking like they can lose to anyone as well. Jordan Theodore and Herb Pope have been more than capable leaders for Kevin Willard's Pirates, and a road win here would be quite the boost for their NCAA Tournament profile.

Duquesne visits George Mason in what could be a wild affair, with Ron Everhart's team enjoying a fast pace and being adept at forcing turnovers and Paul Hewitt's Patriots play interesting games as well. The matchup between T.J. McConnell and Bryon Allen could determine the outcome, especially if Allen gets out of control running the show for George Mason. Iona visits William & Mary and Belmont visits Austin Peay in games where the home teams may give more of a fight than their records would indicate, and Oklahoma State takes on Alabama in Birmingham. If the Cowboys are reckless with the basketball as they were on Saturday against New Mexico, look out for another episode of the "Tony Mitchell Show".

Top 25 Games
7:00 PM Texas at (6) North Carolina (ESPN)
8:00 PM Tennessee-Martin at (22) Murray State

NCAA Division I Games
12:00 PM Hiwassee College at Chattanooga
6:00 PM Fresno State at Arizona State
7:00 PM North Florida at Florida A&M
7:00 PM Charleston Southern at Stetson
7:00 PM Sacred Heart at Boston College
7:00 PM UNC Wilmington at Wake Forest (ESPN3)
7:00 PM Vermont at Fairleigh Dickinson
7:00 PM West Virginia Tech at Marshall
7:00 PM Eastern Illinois at Maine
7:00 PM Dartmouth at Army
7:00 PM North Carolina A&T at Akron
7:00 PM Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Cincinnati
7:00 PM Seton Hall at Dayton
7:00 PM Duquesne at George Mason
7:00 PM Wofford at High Point
7:00 PM Hartford at Marist
7:00 PM Loyola Marymount at Morgan State
7:00 PM Southeastern Louisiana at South Carolina (ESPN3)
7:00 PM UTPA at St. John's (ESPN3)
7:00 PM Coppin State at Saint Joseph's
7:00 PM Iona at William & Mary
7:05 PM Louisiana-Monroe at Indiana State
7:30 PM Cornell at Penn State (BTN)
7:30 PM Kent State vs. Texas-Arlington*
7:30 PM North Carolina Central vs. Stephen F. Austin*
8:00 PM Lipscomb at Iowa State
8:00 PM South Carolina State at Oklahoma (ESPN3)
8:00 PM Peru State at South Dakota
8:00 PM Lafayette at Vanderbilt (ESPN3)
8:00 PM Rogers State at Houston
8:00 PM Alabama A&M at Tennessee State
8:05 PM UCF at Louisiana-Lafayette
8:05 PM Oregon State at Chicago State
8:05 PM Central Arkansas at Drake
8:05 PM Santa Clara at Houston Baptist
8:30 PM Cal Poly at DePaul
8:30 PM Belmont at Austin Peay
9:00 PM Middle Tennessee at Ole Miss (ESPN3)
9:00 PM McNeese State at New Mexico State
9:00 PM Oklahoma State vs. Alabama (ESPN)*
10:00 PM Prairie View A&M at Oregon
10:05 PM Saint Peter's at Utah State
10:10 PM Virginia at Seattle (Root NW)

Opening Night Observations: No Surprises To Be Found

Raphielle Johnson — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 22:19:09 -0800

The college basketball season finally got underway on Monday night with three games featuring squads that will be in New York next week for the 2K Sports Classic Benefitting Coaches vs. Cancer. All three favorites, Arizona, Mississippi State and St. John's, won but predictably there were signs of rust. That comes with the territory, but what are some of the things that can be learned from these games? Here are a few basic observations for each of the six teams in action.

Arizona (beat Valparaiso 73-64)
Once again the Wildcats struggled in the first half, but the scored the final five points of the stanza to take a 32-30 lead into the break. Finding good shots in their half-court sets proved to be an issue for Arizona, but they did a better job on both ends of the floor in the second half. The Wildcats made 12 of 20 shots in the second half, and point guards Josiah Turner and Jordin Mayes made better decisions.

Jesse Perry (14 points, 10 rebounds) scored 10 points in the first half, and as his teammates improved offensively in the second half the senior hit the boards and played solid defense. Freshman Nick Johson and senior Kyle Fogg were Arizona's two best guards on Monday night, combining for 30 points, and Johnson led the team with six assists. Solomon Hill and Kyryl Natyazhko had rough nights, but they'll perform better on Wednesday night.

Eastern Kentucky (lost to Mississippi State 76-66)
The Colonels trailed by six at the half despite shooting 33.3% from the field, aided by the fact that Mississippi State shot just 9-for-19 on two-point shots. Michael DiNunno had an off night from the field, making just four of seventeen shots, and it's safe to say that EKU can't afford nights like that if they're to be a factor in the OVC race.

EKU's problem in the second half was points off of turnovers, with the Bulldogs scoring 12 points off of five EKU turnovers. Eastern Kentucky did score nine points off of six MSU turnovers, but none of those points can on fast break opportunities. And after keeping Dee Bost under wraps in the first 20 minutes he scored 17 points in the second half. EKU outscored Mississippi State 7-5 in second-chance points, and that edge could have been more if not for a minus-11 rebounding margin.

Mississippi State (beat Eastern Kentucky 76-66)
Renardo Sidney didn't make much of an impact in the box score (nine points, three rebounds), but the Bulldogs were able to manage it thanks to UTEP transfer Arnett Moultrie. Moultrie posted a double-double with 13 points and 10 rebounds in addition to a pair of blocks. Will he be the consistent bell cow Rick Stansbury can count on nightly? He may have to be but at the least Moultrie gives Mississippi State a second option inside, something that was missing last year.

Dee Bost bounced back from a 2-for-7 first half, scoring 17 of his game-high 23 points. The difference? Aggression. Bost didn't take one free throw in the first half, staying out on the perimeter offensively, but once he attacked the basket the fouls began to mount for EKU. Brian Bryant didn't shoot well (2-9 FG) but in freshman Rodney Hood the Bulldogs got their first glimpse of the many things that he can do. Hood finished with 12 points, nine rebounds, four assists and no turnovers. Good start for the freshman.

St. John's (beat William & Mary 74-59)
The Red Storm looked a bit nervous in the first half, settling for perimeter looks against a packed-in William & Mary defense and it showed in the numbers. St. John's was 2-for-9 from three and 8-for-22 from two in the first half, so it wasn't surprising that they trailed 33-26 at the half. But led by Nurideen Lindsey (19 points, four assists) the Johnnies weren't content to settle for jumpers in the second half. St. John's made 17 of their 22 shots from inside the arc and attempted just six three-pointers.

Four starters finished in double figures, and with their seven-man rotation that will need to be a consistent occurrence in order for this team to be successful. God'sgift Achiuwa finished with 17 points and nine rebounds but where will the help come from if he gets into foul trouble? That's where the ineligibility of Norvel Pelle will hurt the most, and clearly Amir Garrett could be used as well (the hope is that both will be eligible come December). St. John's was a minus-6 in rebounding margin, with Maurice Harkless grabbing eight boards, and four of the five starters played 32+ minutes.

Valparaiso (lost to Arizona 73-64)
The Crusaders received solid efforts from forwards Ryan Broekhoff and Kevin Van Wijk, who scored 18 points apiece in defeat. Van Wijk was able to get to the foul line, where he made eight of his thirteen attempts. But no other player attempted more than four, and their 25% shooting from three proved to be Valparaiso's downfall. Valparaiso shot at least 50% from two in both halves, but the struggles from deep proved costly. Starting guards Erik Buggs, Jay Harris and Matt Kenney shot a combined 1-for-9 from deep on the night, and Bryce Drew's team can't afford that.

Valpo did a good job on the boards as they finished a minus-2 (32-30) in rebounding margin and led 19-18 in that department at the half. But Arizona outscored them by eight points (15-7) at the charity stripe in the final 20 minutes, and when combined with the Cats shooting 60% from the field it isn't too difficult to see what happened. But the offensive output from the guards is what will likely stick out in this defeat.

William & Mary (lost 74-59 to St. John's)
Things went well for the Tribe in the first half as they outscored St. John's 21-6 from beyond the arc. Defensively Tony Shaver's team was able to keep the SJU perimeter players out of the lane, forcing them to settle for jumpers. But unlike the Red Storm William & Mary didn't take care of the basketball, finishing the night with 21 turnovers to four for St. John's. Quinn McDowell played well, finishing with 20 points and eight rebounds and Julian Boatner knocked down four three-pointers to finish with 12 points.

But the Tribe's two-point defense left them in the second half, the result of their turnover issues. William & Mary did win the battle on the boards, but it's obvious what they need to improve upon in order to be the sleeper that some think they can be in the CAA. St. John's played much better in the second half but they received help in the form of William & Mary miscues as well.

Wednesday's Schedule

7 PM Lehigh at St. John's (ESPN2)
7 PM Akron at Mississippi State
8 PM Liberty at (19) Texas A&M
9 PM Duquesne at (16) Arizona

BubbleBoard 3/1: Ranking the Bubble Teams

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 01 Mar 2010 14:01:36 -0800

RPI #'s updated as of 3/01/10, 4:00 pm.

The BubbleBoard returns again in 2010. CHN ranks at-large contenders using a variety of standard resume components. The BubbleBoard ranking is a modified RPI, that gives extra credit for success against Top 50 teams & games away from home. The purpose of the BubbleBoard is to weed out those teams that may have a high RPI due to playing a seemingly challenging schedule, but either a) lost almost all their challenging games, or b) have won a few challenging games at home but have been sub-par away from home. Ultimately the tourney should feature teams with a track-record of beating good teams on neutral courts. Note: The BubbleBoard is not a prediction of what the committee will do, but a ranking based on previous results.. which is arguably a suggestion for what the committee should do.

The BubbleBoard will be updated again on Thursday.

Top 5 Rising teams*: Notre Dame, Maryland, Northeastern, Xavier, Louisville

Top 5 Falling teams: UCONN, Old Dominion, VCU, Cincinnati, Memphis

*Based on difference between last week's BubbleBoard

Top 5 Faker teams*: California, UCONN, Wichita St, Memphis, Arizona St

Top 5 Dangerous teams: Richmond, Baylor, UNLV, St Mary's, Maryland

*Faker teams are those that have struggled most away from home & against Top 50 teams as compared to their RPI.

Today's BubbleBoard Additions/Subtractions:

Louisiana Tech & Tulsa no longer tracked.

Into/Out of Projected At-Large Bid:

In: Louisville

Out: UCONN

Today's BubbleBoard Thoughts:

Amazing what one week can do. UCONN went from being firmly in the bubble to almost 10 spots out after a disappointing home loss to Louisville. Maryland, Xavier, Baylor, and Clemson move into virtual "lock" status at this point, along with Richmond. I've left those teams on for reference at this point, as all would certainly make the tournament at this point. The same can be said for Oklahoma St. It will be extremely interesting to see what the committee does with projected league champions such as Utah St, Old Dominion, UTEP, and Cal. Except for Cal, the BubbleBoard thinks the prior 3 are tournament worthy and that Cal is firmly on the bubble. Would the committee take Utah St or Old Dominion as at-large teams if they lose their tournaments? We can only speculate.

Last week, Notre Dame was 20 spots out of the field, but the addition of two Top 50 teams puts them in much better position. If UCONN adds 1 more Top 50 win this week and moves up 8 spots in the RPI, they'd be in. In general, the BubbleBoard is not particularly impressed with the Big East bubble teams, with the exception of Louisville. UCONN, Marquette, Notre Dame, and Seton Hall are a combined 12-28 against Top 50 teams, and 16-29 away from home. The BubbleBoard sees those 12 Top 50 wins as being a matter of simply getting so many bites of the apple at home, that eventually they've each pulled off some big wins. The BubbleBoard also disrespects Mississippi St, who is in many "Bracketology" fields. MSU has only 1 Top 50 win, yet they have 4 losses to teams below 100th.. a ratio that is far from tournament worthy.

How The Yellow At-Large Field Is Projected:

The yellow shading represents teams who would fit into an approximate bubble. There are 25 "lock" teams (listed below), as well as 16 one-bid league champs not listed, and 3-4 probable league champs included in the BubbleBoard. This leaves about 21 teams with room to make the tournament. Teams with 10+ points are approaching "lock" status to make the tourney as of now. Teams with -10 or below still have work to do. (The 2 semi-shaded boxes represent the extended bubble if you consider that the committee almost certainly will not take VCU and William & Mary, despite what the computers say about them).

	Team	RPI	SOS	NCSOS	Computer	T50 W	T50 L	R/N W	R/N L	L100 L	Bonus =	Total =	Was	Dif
#	Kansas	1	19	41	3	8	2	9	2	0	92	89	97	-8
1	Richmond	28	73	72	22	5	2	9	6	0	53	32	35	-3
2	Baylor	11	28	129	12	5	4	8	5	2	32	20	5	15
3	Xavier**	12	24	17	9	5	7	7	7	0	19	10	-11	21
4	Maryland	25	23	159	20	4	5	6	6	0	19	-2	-25	23
5	Clemson	27	30	162	22	4	5	7	6	1	16	-6	-20	14
6	Oklahoma St	26	18	124	19	4	5	6	7	1	12	-8	-14	6
7	UAB	35	111	88	28	1	2	11	3	1	17	-12	-1	-11
8	UNLV	43	96	207	36	4	4	10	4	3	23	-13	-10	-3
9	Saint Mary's	45	142	73	35	2	3	10	3	1	19	-16	-12	-4
10	Rhode Island	37	68	27	25	2	4	9	5	1	8	-18	-5	-13
11	Utah St**	34	92	81	27	1	1	8	5	2	6	-21	-13	-8
12	William & Mary	60	107	23	40	3	3	9	6	2	17	-23	-14	-9
13	Louisville	32	5	19	19	3	6	5	6	1	-5	-23	-41	18
14	UTEP**	50	151	194	42	1	1	9	3	1	17	-25	-29	4
15	Georgia Tech	33	20	131	24	4	6	5	8	2	-3	-27	-19	-8
16	Missouri	36	49	195	29	4	6	5	7	2	-1	-30	-24	-6
17	Florida	48	59	130	34	3	6	7	6	1	0	-34	-33	-1
18	Dayton	41	37	22	25	3	6	5	8	1	-8	-34	-28	-6
19	Florida St	42	50	220	33	3	7	8	5	1	-1	-34	-29	-5
20	Old Dominion**	38	77	9	25	1	4	8	8	1	-11	-37	-18	-19
21	San Diego St	39	56	125	29	2	5	7	7	2	-12	-40	-34	-6
22	VCU	66	145	113	48	3	1	5	7	4	6	-42	-25	-17
23	Cincinnati	58	17	45	34	4	8	4	9	0	-8	-43	-29	-14
24	Virginia Tech	52	156	343	49	2	4	7	6	0	6	-43	-32	-11
25	South Florida	67	64	239	48	3	5	7	7	1	4	-44	-43	-1
26	California**	21	4	1	12	0	4	5	8	2	-34	-46	-42	-4
27	Charlotte	62	112	167	46	3	7	9	6	1	0	-46	-35	-11
28	Northeastern	72	82	10	44	3	3	10	7	6	-3	-47	-69	22
29	Marquette	49	67	202	37	3	7	7	6	2	-10	-48	-62	14
30	Illinois	73	64	118	48	4	6	6	8	2	0	-48	-44	-4
31	Ole Miss	55	65	150	39	2	7	8	5	1	-12	-50	-61	11
32	Washington	53	58	44	34	2	2	2	7	4	-18	-52	-47	-5
33	UCONN	44	2	6	25	3	8	3	8	2	-30	-54	-31	-23
34	Notre Dame	68	60	213	48	3	4	3	8	2	-7	-55	-86	31
35	Arizona St	54	74	77	36	1	5	6	6	2	-23	-59	-51	-8
36	St Louis	87	137	223	63	3	2	4	7	3	3	-60	-52	-8
37	Minnesota	70	38	74	43	3	6	4	8	3	-21	-64	-60	-4
38	Seton Hall	63	16	170	41	3	9	3	7	0	-23	-64	-57	-7
39	Mississippi St	56	128	235	46	1	4	9	6	4	-20	-66	-72	6
40	Memphis	64	98	66	43	1	5	6	5	3	-26	-69	-56	-13
41	Wichita St	51	138	301	46	1	3	6	8	4	-26	-71	-64	-7

*Teams leading their leagues

Yellow = Approximate bubble cut-off

NC-SOS = Non-conference strength of schedule

Computer = Modified RPI taking into account SOS/NCSOS a bit more

Bonus = Modifications due to Top 50 & R/N success

R/N = Road/neutral

L100L = Lower than 100 losses

Lock Teams: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Villanova, Duke, Purdue, Georgetown, Michigan St, West Virginia, Kansas St, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Ohio St, Temple, BYU, Gonzaga, Northern Iowa, Butler, Siena, Cornell, Wake Forest, Texas, Texas A&M

As teams move in and out of bubble consideration, the teams tracked will change in future weeks.

BracketBusters TV Pairings Announced

Press Release — Mon, 01 Feb 2010 17:57:22 -0800

ESPN announced today live on ESPNU’s 2010 BracketBusters Selection Show the pairings for the eighth annual BracketBusters – a two-day men’s college basketball event pitting NCAA Tournament hopefuls Friday, Feb. 19, and Saturday, Feb. 20. The field features two ranked teams, No. 15 Butler and No. 22 Northern Iowa, as well as the return of Siena, which also received votes in the ESPN/USA Today Top 25 Coaches Poll.

BracketBusters will feature 11 nationally televised games live, selected from a pool of 98 teams. ESPNU, the 24-hour college sports network, will televise five BracketBusters games, and ESPN2 will televise six, all simulcast on ESPN360.com, ESPN’s customized broadband service. Three of the ESPN2 telecasts will be in high definition. The matchups are highlighted by Old Dominion at No. 22 Northern Iowa on Friday, Feb. 19, at 7 p.m., and Siena at No. 15 Butler on Saturday, Feb. 20 at 11 a.m. ET, both on ESPN2 HD and ESPN360.com.

2010 BracketBusters Schedule

Date	Time (ET)	Matchup	Network(s)
Fri, Feb 19	7 p.m.	Old Dominion at No. 22 Northern Iowa	ESPN2 HD / ESPN360.com
	9 p.m.	William & Mary at Iona	ESPNU
Sat, Feb 20	11 a.m.	Siena at No. 15 Butler	ESPN2 HD / ESPN360.com
	Noon	Morgan State at Murray State	ESPNU
	1 p.m.	Louisiana Tech at Northeastern	ESPN2 / ESPN360.com
	3 p.m.	Nevada at Missouri State	ESPN2 / ESPN360.com
	4 p.m.	Akron at Virginia Commonwealth	ESPNU
	8 p.m.	Coll. of Charleston at George Mason	ESPN2 HD / ESPN360.com
	8 p.m.	Western Carolina at Kent State	ESPNU
	10 p.m.	New Mexico State at Pacific	ESPNU
	11:59 p.m.	Wichita State at Utah State	ESPN2 / ESPN360.com

This year’s 22 BracketBusters teams represent 10 conferences and:

· Two ranked teams: No. 15 Butler and No. 22 Northern Iowa

· 19 teams in the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) top 100: No. Iowa (16); Butler (18); Siena (44); Old Dominion (46); Wichita State (48); William & Mary (51); Utah State (55); Northeastern (56); Virginia Commonwealth (60); Nevada (66); Kent State (69); Western Carolina (73); La. Tech (74); New Mexico State (82); Missouri State (84); Iona (85); Murray State (92); College of Charleston (94); Pacific (95)

· Seven 2009 NCAA Tournament participants: Northern Iowa; Siena; Butler; Morgan Sate; Akron; Virginia Commonwealth; Utah State

· 16 teams with 15 or more wins overall: Old Dominion; Northern Iowa; William & Mary; Iona; Siena; Butler; Morgan State; Murray State; La. Tech; Missouri State; Akron; Virginia Commonwealth; George Mason; Western Carolina; Wichita State; Utah State

· Four teams undefeated in conference play: Butler; Siena; Morgan State and Murray State

College Basketball: Surprise Teams of 2009

Kevin McNeill — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 12:31:58 -0800

Another year in the books, and thankfully conference play is finally here. After all the preseason tournaments, marquee matchups, and guarantee games played in the last two months, these teams have seemingly come out of nowhere to become the early season surprises so far.

William & Mary

42nd in CHN Top 50

After dropping their first two games to UConn and Harvard (by a buzzer-beater in triple overtime), the Tribe have quietly reeled off nine wins in a row, most notably a stunning ten point victory over Wake Forest at Joel Coliseum where they led virtually the entire game. The win snapped a 23-game home non-conference winning streak for the Demon Deacons.

Not bad for a team that was picked to finish 10th in the 12 team Colonial Athletic Association in the preseason, and coming off a 10-20 campaign a year ago. Led by their senior guard David Schneider, who at this early point in the season is making a strong case for CAA player of the year, the Tribe are off to their best start in over three decades.

Should the outside shots keep falling (they currently are third in the nation in three pointers), William & Mary could find themselves in the post-season – something that has only happened once (NIT in 1983) in the program’s history.

UAB

38th in CHN Top 50

Losing no less than seven players from last year’s 22 win team, including star guards Robert Vaden and Paul Delaney as well as Lawrence Kinnard, the Blazers were tabbed by the media to finish 3^rd from the bottom in Conference USA. As of today, they sit at 11-2, with quality wins against Cincinnati and Butler.

Helping the Blazers overcome their huge losses from a year ago are two transfers: Elijah Millsap, who leads the conference in rebounding and is the school’s top scorer, and Jamaar Sanders, who really is starting to come into his own, scoring 18 on 7 of 10 shooting against a very good Butler team.

Rhode Island

unranked in CHN Top 50

Losing all-conference guard and three point specialist Jimmy Baron to graduation meant expectations weren’t too high for the Rams at the start of the season. They were picked to finish 8^th in the Atlantic 10, despite returning three starters, including Keith Cothran who was one of the most improved players in the conference last season.

Yet Cothran has instead led his team to a 10-1 start, with wins over Boston College and Providence. They have a tough stretch of games coming up after the New Year, starting with 10-1 Oklahoma State, on the road against Akron, and a home matchup against Temple.

Northwestern

36th in CHN Top 50

In 104 years of Wildcat basketball, Northwestern has never once won 20 games in a season. The school has not finished higher than 7^th place in the Big Ten since 1969. Prior to Coach Bill Carmody’s arrival in 2000, they mustered double digit wins only three times in the previous 16 years. In fact, last season’s 17 win campaign was the second most wins in program history, leading to a berth in the NIT – their first postseason game in a decade.

You get the idea. Northwestern has long been where good coaches go to bury their careers. But don’t’ look now, the Wildcats ended its pre-conference slate at 10-1 and have already beaten Notre Dame, NC State (on the road) and Stanford. Keep in mind this is without Kevin Coble, who has led the team in scoring and rebounding in each of his first three seasons, was named second-team all Big Ten a year ago, and who is lost for the season after foot surgery. Should Northwestern somehow make it through conference play with enough wins to earn their first-ever NCAA Tournament berth, Carmody should and will easily win every coach of the year honor that isn’t nailed down.

New Mexico

17th in CHN Top 50

If you are looking for another early contender for national coach of the year, look no further than Albuquerque. After losing their top three scorers from last year, New Mexico entered the season expected to finish no better than the middle of the pack in the Mountain West. Instead, Coach Steve Alford had his supposedly rebuilding Lobos undefeated and ranked 17^th in the nation, upsetting Cal, Texas A&M (at a supposedly neutral site in Houston) and knocking off upstart Texas Tech along the way.

Now in his third year since leaving Iowa, the former Hoosier great is coming off a season in which his Lobos won a share of the regular season title and earned himself MWC Coach of the Year honors. He has now won 59 games and counting with New Mexico – pretty good for a coach who inherited a team that won just four conference games the season before his arrival.

Led by surprising transfer Darington Hobson and Roman Martinez (the only senior on the roster) the Lobos should find themselves back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in five seasons, and will go a long way towards winning the MWC outright should they prevail in a must-watch game against UNLV at The Pit on January 9^th.

Honorable mention:

Missouri State, Texas Tech, St. Mary’s, Army, Florida State

College Hoops Wednesday Recap: Cincinnati Knocks Off UConn

Raphielle Johnson — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 00:20:20 -0800

The first few days of the Big East conference schedule certainly haven't lacked drama, with Seton Hall, Marquette and Cincinnati all having opportunities to knock off more established programs. But the difference between the Bearcats and the other two schools is that they were able to take full advantage of their opportunity, knocking off #10 Connecticut 71-69 at Fifth Third Arena. Lance Stephenson passed his first conference test with flying colors, scoring 21 points and knocking down two free throws with seven tenths of a second remaining to provide the final margin.

The question that many will ask in regards to this game will be whether or not Stephenson was fouled on his final drive. John Cahill simply called what he saw and is generally regarded as one of the better referees in the business. But to point to that as the sole reason for the Huskies' loss would be extremely unfair. Offensively Connecticut struggled to run their offensive sets efficiently and the Bearcats deserve some credit for that. But if UConn can't figure out how to go about making things happen in their half-court sets they're going to be in trouble as they advance through Big East play.

As for what this win means for Cincinnati it's a solid result that nets them a 1-0 conference record. But they aren't without their issues either; Ibrahima Thomas needs to become more physical in regards to finishing inside and there were stretches of play in which it was hard to notice that Yancy Gates was even on the floor. But with Stephenson and Deonta Vaughn leading the way, Mick Cronin's team may be able to build on the momentum gained from this victory.

Three Key Happenings

1. William & Mary picks up another good non-conference win. There really hasn't been a mid-major "team du jour" since Portland returned back to reality following their run to the title game of the 76 Classic. But maybe the Tribe of William & Mary should receive more praise for their 9-2 start, and they added another line to their resume with a win at Maryland. The Tribe led by as many as sixteen in their 83-77 win at the Comcast Center, their second road win over an ACC opponent this season (Wake Forest).

Quinn McDowell led the way with 28 points and at 9-2 the Tribe are off to their best start since 1977. Could William & Mary's turnaround following an 0-2 start help the CAA make a case to be a two-bid league? That remains to be seen, especially as league play progresses since five or six teams will be able to throw their hat into the title race. But the Tribe's recent play has certainly helped in that department.

2. Illinois survives Northwestern in Champaign. Had there been an extra second or two on the clock at the end of regulation this spot could have been about Bill Carmody's Wildcats picking up a huge road win. But it wasn't granting the stripped D.J. Richardson a reprieve in the form of overtime, which Illinois took over to pick up the 89-83 victory. And despite the high score it was the Illini defense that helped secure the win, limiting Northwestern to 33.3% shooting from the field and 16-for-47 from behind the arc.

Giving up eighty-three points isn't necessarily the best way to start Big Ten play but as those percentages show it may have been a start. And when all else fails Bruce Weber can look to his two Mikes on the inside. Tisdale and Davis combined for 51 points and 28 rebounds in the win, and if they can continue to produce while getting some help from the perimeter Illinois should be a safe bet for the NCAA Tournament.

3. Radford's going to be tough to beat in the Big South. George Mason has been a bit erratic this season but for the defending Big South champs to beat them in the fashion that they did on Wednesday night should serve notice to the rest of the conference. Artsiom Parakhouski and Lazar Trifunovic combined for 49 points and 29 rebounds in the 80-53 pasting, and Radford held the frigid Patriots to 27% shooting from the field. The Highlanders didn't make a three pointer (0-9) on the night but that doesn't matter when you can get just about anything you want inside.

That's a luxury that having a player the caliber of reigning Big South POY Parakhouski affords you. And when you add Joey Lynch-Flohr to the aforementioned tandem you've got a trio that will likely control the glass in most conference games. If one or two of their guard consistently knock down perimeter shots don't be surprised if Radford returns to the NCAA Tournament come March.

Top Three Games

1. Illinois 89, Northwestern 83 (OT) See above.

2. Cincinnati 71, Connecticut 69 See above.

3. Central Connecticut St. 89, UMBC 86 (2OT) Robby Ptacek led the victorious Blue Devils with 23 points while UMBC's Chris De La Rosa led all scorers with 25 and teammate Robbie Jackson added 24 points and 15 rebounds.

Three Notable Performances

1. C Artsiom Parakhouski (Radford) The senior big man was a man among boys against George Mason, tallying 34 points, 12 rebounds and five blocks in the Highlanders' 80-53 victory. Teammate Lazar Trifunovic added 15 points and 17 rebounds.

2. C Mike Tisdale (Illinois) Tisdale posted a line of 31 points, 11 rebounds, two blocks and two steals in the Fighting Illini's 89-83 overtime win over Northwestern. Teammate Mike Davis added 20 points and 17 rebounds.

3. F Kevin Thompson (Morgan State) Thompson scored 13 points and grabbed 17 rebounds in the Bears' 87-70 win over LIU. But that rebound total was a far cry from his season-high: 25. And he's just a sophomore.

CAA Basketball Preview: 2009-10

CHN — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 12:55:50 -0800

With four teams legitimately battling for the CAA title, and top-notch players like Charles Jenkins and Chad Tomko on lesser teams, the CAA season should be one to remember.

Conference Rank: 13th

10 year average: 14th

CAA Conference Page

All-CAA Team
Pos.	Player	Team	Yr.

G	Charles Jenkins	Hofstra	Jr
G	Chad Tomko	UNC Wilmington	Sr
G/F	Matt Janning	Northeastern	Sr
F	Gerald Lee	Old Dominion	Sr
F	Larry Sanders	VCU	Jr

Player of the Year - Charles Jenkins Freshman of the Year - Luke Hancock (George Mason)
CHN Award Winners		Leaders
CHN All-Americans Larry Sanders Mid-Major All-Americans Charles Jenkins (2nd Team) Larry Sanders (2nd) Matt Janning Gerald Lee		Best Scorer Charles Jenkins 19.7 Best Rebounder: Larry Sanders Assists: Darius James

CAA Standings
Nat'l	Team	League	Tourney

48	Old Dominion	Colonial	1	NCAA
66	George Mason	Colonial	2	NIT
83	VCU	Colonial	3	NIT
102	Northeastern	Colonial	4	CBI/CIT
125	James Madison	Colonial	5	CBI/CIT
162	Hofstra	Colonial	6
172	Drexel	Colonial	7
229	Georgia State	Colonial	8
244	William & Mary	Colonial	9
251	Towson	Colonial	10
278	Delaware	Colonial	11
292	UNC Wilmington	Colonial	12

*Click on links for full Top 144 team preview

Poll: Who Do You Think Will Win the CAA?

College Basketball Preview - 348 Team Ranking - Alphabetical Ranks/Previews

Poll: Who Will Win the CAA?

Shawn Siegel — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 09:01:36 -0700

CAA Championship: Preview & Prediction

Evan Dorey — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 09:10:49 -0800

This is one in a series of conference tournament previews, in which I run down all the teams involved, give a brief statistical review and present the log5 projections, using in-conference offensive and defensive efficiency. The basic log5 methodology comes from Bill James, and this is an area Ken Pomeroy has looked at in the past as well. I claim nothing new in the application, but obviously with slightly different methodologies, these numbers may differ from others you find. I don’t claim to be an expert on any particular conference, and I’m sure there are some mis-characterizations on some players I’ve seen sparingly at best, so please add your thoughts in the comments. Anyway, with no further ado, the preview follows below:

Colonial Athletic

The CAA Tournament gives semifinal byes to the top 4 teams, and all games are hosted in Richmond; not in VCU’s home arena, but only a few minutes away. For that reason, I’ve decided to treat the games as semi-home games, giving a partial bonus to VCU’s chances.

#	Team	QF	SF	F	W
1	Virginia Commonwealth	100.00%	94.56%	83.70%	58.63%
2	George Mason	100.00%	83.28%	52.85%	22.67%
3	Northeastern	100.00%	70.20%	33.03%	11.76%
4	Old Dominion	100.00%	65.32%	10.70%	2.94%
5	Hofstra	89.78%	34.02%	3.86%	0.74%
6	Drexel	86.17%	28.77%	9.19%	2.16%
7	James Madison	76.07%	15.00%	4.62%	0.85%
8	Georgia St.	46.20%	2.32%	0.69%	0.08%
9	Delaware	53.80%	3.12%	1.03%	0.14%
10	William & Mary	23.93%	1.72%	0.22%	0.02%
11	Towson	13.83%	1.03%	0.08%	0.00%
12	NC Wilmington	10.22%	0.66%	0.01%	0.00%

VCU is indeed the favorite, as we’d expect from the hosts and champions, but I was rather surprised just how good its odds are. Both GMU and Northeastern will provide tough potential challenges, while ODU are primed for an early defeat, and Drexel could be a bit of a Cinderella.

#1 – Virginia Commonwealth Rams (21-9, 14-4) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.165

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2008 (2^nd Round)

With the tournament being hosted in Richmond, VCU will be heavily favored to back up its regular season crown with a CAA tournament title. The Rams are the conference’s best defenders, holding opponents to just 38% shooting, and leading the league in forcing turnovers. They also don’t commit many turnovers themselves, and are very good three point shooters, but their rebounding leaves something to be desired.

Players to watch:

6-2 SR Eric Maynor, 22.4 PPG, 3.6 RPG,6.2 APG, 1.8 SPG, 52.3 eFG% - There aren’t many conferences in the country where the player of the year is quite this clear-cut, but I don’t think anyone could make a reasonable argument that there’s been any CAA player better than Maynor. He leads the conference in scoring and in assists, and manages to shoot an excellent percentage despite taking almost a third of his team’s shots. His assist total is pretty good, but his rate is even better, one of the very best in the nation, and he manages to distribute the ball while rarely turning it over. When he was the ‘Dagger’ against Duke, he was a good player, but now he’s stepped up to be one of the very best scorers in the country.

6-9 SO Larry Sanders, 11.2 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 2.6 BPG, 51.5 eFG% - There’s not a lot of space to be a great player with Maynor on your team, but Sanders has managed to do it, one of the conference’s best rebounders and shot-blockers. He’s a pretty solid offensive contributor; a good inside foil for Maynor, but he often struggles with foul trouble, and without him the Rams are a lot more vulnerable inside.

#2 – George Mason Patriots (20-9, 13-5) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.143

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2008 (1^st Round)

The Patriots played fairly poorly on the road all season, and a couple of bad losses left them short of the conference title. They actually won every game they played on their home floor, but a 2-4 stretch in the middle of the conference season was a killer to their chances. George Mason has had the CAA’s best offense, shooting over 52% from inside the arc and avoiding turnovers, and its defense has also been solid: the Patriots cause opponents a lot of problems on long-range shots.

Players to watch:

6-7 SR Darryl Monroe, 10.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG,1.2 SPG, 57.9 eFG% - Monroe may be a senior, but he’s a Ju-Co transfer who arrived the year after the run to the Final Four. After redshirting last season, he’s looking for his first NCAA appearance, and has been a big player for the Patriots, leading the team in rebounding while shooting a stellar 58% from the field.

6-4 SO Cameron Long, 11.8 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 3.2 APG, 54.0 eFG% - Long is the team’s leading scorer, and one of the few Patriots who is a serious three-point threat. He’s also a solid inside shooter who can chip in with some assists, and while he often doesn’t score a whole lot, he can easily break out for 15-20 points.

#3 – Northeastern Huskies (18-11, 12-6) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.112

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1991 (1^st Round)

Northeastern looked like it would have the inside track for a conference title when it sat at 10-1, with just one game left against the other top contenders. The Husky offense came unravelled down the stretch, though, and a few bad losses dropped it to third. They are the only team that looks like challenging the top two, but may not have the form to get to the final. It’s tempting to say that Northeastern has an excellent defensive team, but that’s mostly due to its slow pace; the Huskies have been better on the offensive end, decent shooters who earn a lot of points at the free throw line. They do force a lot of turnovers, but aren’t great rebounders and allow opponents to shoot 34% from behind the arc.

Players to watch:

6-4 JR Matt Janning, 14.3 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 47.4 eFG% - Janning leads the Huskies in scoring, but hasn’t been a particularly effective player, just barely making a third of his threes and well south of 50% on his two-pointers. He doesn’t contribute too much in other areas of the box-score, and in the last few games has seen his scoring fall off.

6-4 Chaisson Allen, 9.8 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 3.0 APG, 1.7 SPG, 44.9 eFG% - Allen is a pretty weak shooter, and doesn’t score much, but leads the Huskies in rebounds, assists and steals, though a lot of this has more to do with how much he plays, as his rates in those areas are fairly pedestrian.

#4 – Old Dominion Monarchs (20-9, 12-6) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.032

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2007 (1^st Round)

From sitting at 5-5 with a month to go in the season, the Monarchs put together as good a run as any team in the conference, losing just once the rest of the way. Old Dominion takes the ball inside a lot, and while it doesn’t make a huge percentage of shots, it does crash the offensive glass really well. Its free throw shooting may be a liability down the stretch, among the worst in the league. While the Monarchs are good at attacking inside, their defense isn’t nearly as good on the interior, though it does defend the outside well; forcing a lot of turnovers and rarely fouling.

Players to watch:

6-10 JR Gerald Lee, 15.7 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 57.0 eFG% - It’s rare to find a 6-10 player at this level who isn’t a great rebounder, but that’s exactly what Lee has been. The Finnish national’s strength is in his offensive game, as he’s a 57% shooter who sees a lot of the ball.

6-5 SO Ben Finney, 10.8 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 1.6 SPG, 53.6 eFG% - Finney may be five inches shorter than Lee, but he has out-rebounded him on the season, and has easily been the team’s best player on the offensive glass. He’s also a pretty efficient scorer, having a decent three-point touch to go with good scoring ability inside. His 58% free throw shooting is a big problem, though.

#5 – Hofstra Pride (20-10, 11-7) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.010

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2001 (1^st Round)

Hofstra has the honor of being Ken Pomeroy’s luckiest team in the entire country, as it’s been outscored by an average of two points in conference play, and yet finished fifth in the standings. The Pride lucked out with a weak draw, but don’t look likely to challenge the better teams. They have one of the conference’s weakest offenses, as they are both terrible shooters (including 43% from two) and turn the ball over a lot. The one bright spot is rebounding, but when you miss as often as the Pride do, it’s not that much of a benefit. Hofstra has some serious defensive problems as well, committing a lot of fouls and allowing opponents to score pretty easily from behind the arc.

Players to watch:

6-3 SO Charles Jenkins, 19.2 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 4.2 APG, 1.5 SPG, 42.9 eFG% - Jenkins is second in the CAA in scoring, though this is more about the sophomore’s role in the offense than his ability to shoot. His percentages are decent but not great, though an 81% showing at the stripe sure helps. Still, he’s an excellent distributor of the ball who can potentially go off for a big number, and has twice put up more than 30 in the month of February.

6-10 SO Greg Washington, 5.5 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 2.3 BPG, 49.6 eFG% - Washington doesn’t score much, but he doesn’t need to, as the core of his game is rebounding, where he leads the team despite often playing less than 20 minutes, and shot-blocking, where he puts up one of the best rates in the country. Watch out for the Dragons in two years, when both Jenkins and Washington are seniors.

#6 – Drexel Dragons (15-13, 10-8) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.050

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1996 (2^nd Round)

If you want to pick a team outside the top 4 that could cause a surprise, Drexel might be worth a shot, though a 2-5 finish to the conference season doesn’t give much hope to its chances. The Dragons managed to break the .500 mark despite being one of the country’s worst shooting teams. There are two reasons: they are good offensive rebounders, and their opponents have been just about as bad making shots as the Dragons have. It’s very rare to see a team lead the conference in two-point defense and finish last in two-point offense, but somehow Drexel manages it.

Players to watch:

5-10 SO Jamie Harris, 8.0 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 48.0 eFG% - Harris is Drexel’s most efficient player, and when you consider that he turns the ball over a fair amount and shoots just 41% from two-point range, this is something that should really concern the Dragons. He’s the team’s only three-point shooter who hits more than a third of attempts, but his role in the offense is too small to really help the team.

6-3 SR Scott Rodgers, 13.7 PPG,5.1 RPG, 3.1 APG, 39.0 eFG% - Rodgers is a little better than his pathetic eFG% would suggest, leading the team in assists and putting up a pretty good percentage at the free throw line, but he still wastes a lot of possessions on missed shots.

#7 – James Madison Dukes (18-13, 9-9) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.022

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1994 (1^st Round)

James Madison is a deserved .500 team, finishing pretty close to even in EM over the course of the conference schedule. It’s a pretty good shooting team that turns the ball over a lot, and it also manages to hold opponents to a conference-best 28% from behind the arc. The Dukes’ problem has been defending the inside, as their inability to stop shots or get a lot of rebounds has held them back.

Players to watch:

6-3 JR Pierre Curtis, 8.5 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 2.8 APG, 52.9 eFG% - Curtis doesn’t tend to take a lot of shots, but has a good percentage on the ones he does take, and manages to get to the free throw line a lot, where he’s an 81% shooter.

6-6 SR Juwann James, 15.8 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 59.7 eFG% - James missed much of the month of November, but on his return he brought an excellent dimension to the Dukes’ offense, shooting nearly 60% from the field and doing a great job on the offensive glass. He’s averaged 20 points in the month of February, and is the team’s best offensive threat.

#8 – Georgia St. Panthers (11-19, 8-10) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.058

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2001 (2^nd Round)

Now that we’ve reached the #8 seed, the teams begin to head south, with all sporting fairly large negative efficiency margins. All the teams previously discussed had defended at at least a point-per-possession or better, with Georgia St. being the first to fall short of that standard. The Panthers are a decent shooting team from the field, but have hit under 60% from the free throw line, and have been poor offensive rebounders. Defensively, opponents take a lot of long distance shots against Georgia St., which probably works out for the best, given how weak its interior play has been.

Players to watch:

6-1 SR Joe Dukes, 12.3 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 4.4 APG, 1.8 SPG, 47.3 eFG% - Dukes leads the team in points, assists and steals, but his shooting has been somewhat spotty, and his role has gradually shrunk over the course of the season.

6-0 JR Trae Goldston, 11.0 PPG, 1.5 RPG, 50.9 eFG% - Goldston’s overall numbers have been pretty solid, but he’s tended to be very inconsistent, with periods where he’s a big scorer sandwiched between stretches where his shot hasn’t been going. If he’s on, he can put up 15-20 on any team in the tournament, but that’s a pretty big if.

#9 – Delaware Blue Hens (13-18, 6-12) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.046

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1999 (1^st Round)

Delaware may sit towards the bottom of the conference standings, but it certainly has the potential to cause some upsets, as it is the only team outside the top four to have beaten both George Mason and VCU this season. The Blue Hens put up a lot of threes (something we’ll see often towards the bottom of the conference), and make them at a pretty good clip, but have little interior presence, especially in terms of rebounding. They tend to give opponents a big possession advantage, through the dangerous combination of not grabbing misses and forcing few turnovers.

Players to watch:

6-6 SR Marc Egerson, 15.5 PPG, 10.4 RPG, 1.4 SPG, 48.5 eFG% - The conferences’ leading rebounder, Egerson is the only man in the CAA to average a double-double, but doesn’t do it in the way you might expect, as he’s an excellent defensive rebounder who gets a lot of offense from behind the arc.

5-10 JR Brian Johnson, 10.2 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 5.0 APG, 53.6 eFG% - Johnson has been a very solid guard for the Hens, especially down the stretch, averaging nearly 15 points in his last eight games. He’s a 40% three point shooter who gets a lot of assists, while controlling turnovers fairly effectively.

#10 – William & Mary Tribe (10-19, 5-13) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.075

Last NCAA Tournament bid: None

The Tribe enter the tournament on what is for them a roll, having crawled their way back to respectability after a 1-10 start. Frankly, you wouldn’t expect very much out of a team that takes most of its shots from behind the arc, but shoots just 31% from there. They’ve been an OK defensive team, but have allowed opponents to shoot pretty well from long-distance. The change in William & Mary’s recent positive stretch has been putting together better shooting with control of turnovers; they’d occasionally done each thing for the first part of the season, but getting them to happen in the same game was uncommon until the last month or so.

Players to watch:

6-3 JR David Schneider, 14.4 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 2.8 APG, 1.3 SPG, 44.7 eFG% - Schnieder is an ugly shooter, just 35% overall and 30% from behind the arc, but he puts up a good assist rate while committing few turnovers (just 43 all season), which ends up making him a pretty efficient player despite his problems.

6-5 FR Quinn McDowell, 9.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 57.8 eFG% - McDowell doesn’t play a huge role in the offense as a freshman, but when he does takes shots, he usually hits them, putting up the highest three-point shooting numbers on the team and hitting 57% of his shots inside.

#11 – Towson Tigers (10-21, 5-13) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.107

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1991 (1^st Round)

Towson has had a difficult season, and are deserved 11^th place finishers after having a lot of trouble of the defensive end. Teams have been able to exploit the Tigers inside , shooting 52%, and they don’t do anything else well enough to make up for those troubles. Their offense has been respectable, not making a lot of shots, but getting a lot of chances by limiting turnovers and picking up a good number of rebounds.

Players to watch:

6-8 SR Junior Hairston, 12.9 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.9 BPG, 47.1 eFG% - If Hairston took less three-pointers, he’d be one of the conference’s better players overall, but with his 30% shooting serving as an anchor to his efficiency, he’ll have to settle for excellent rebounding and block rates. He also holds onto the ball pretty well, and his shooting is the only serious weakness in his statistical profile.

6-7 JR Jarrel Smith, 11.1 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 46.4 eFG% - Smith doesn’t have any particular area in which he’s that strong, but he’s a decent shooter who doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, which is a relative rarity on this team.

#12 – NC Wilmington Seahawks (7-24, 3-15) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.075

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2006 (1^st Round)

The Seahawks have easily been the worst team in the league, ranked at the bottom of the conference on both ends of the floor, and their win over VCU stands out as their only half-decent result. They allow opponents to shoot a absurd 58% from two-point range, and aren’t much better outside the arc. A lot of this can be linked to their pace of play, the conference’s fastest. This creates a lot of turnovers, but NC Wilmington pays for it by getting badly outrebounded, and is unable to create for itself the same high percentage chances it gives up.

Players to watch:

5-11 SO Chad Tomko, 15.8 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 4.5 APG, 2.2 SPG, 46.6 eFG% - Tomko takes a lot of shots when he’s on the floor, and while he doesn’t shoot a great percentage, he makes up for it with excellent assist and steal rates.

6-3 JR Johnny Wolf, 13.7 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 50.6 eFG% - Wolf takes most of his shots from behind the arc, and is one of the rare Seahawks that manages to hit more than a third of these attempts. The most interesting thing about Wolf may be how infrequently he fouls; since fouling out twice in the first three games, he has committed just 21 in the next 27 games.

My statistical all-Colonial team:

Virginia Commonwealth SR G Eric Maynor, 22.4 PPG, 3.6 RPG,6.2 APG, 1.8 SPG, 52.3 eFG%

Delaware SR G Marc Egerson, 15.5 PPG, 10.4 RPG, 1.4 SPG, 48.5 eFG%

Hofstra SO G Charles Jenkins, 19.2 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 4.2 APG, 1.5 SPG, 42.9 eFG%

George Mason SR F Darryl Monroe, 10.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG,1.2 SPG, 57.9 eFG%

Old Dominion JR F Gerald Lee, 15.7 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 57.0 eFG%