UWGB

Horizon League First Round: Predictions & Poll

Greg Mengelt — Tue, 28 Feb 2012 07:37:46 -0800

The higher seed hosts Horizon League first round games. The top 2 seeds (Cleveland St & Valpo) have a bye.

#8 Wright State (13-18, 7-11) at #5 Butler (18-13, 11-7)

7 p.m. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 6 – Butler 63-62*; Feb. 2 – Butler 64-53. RPI: Butler 117; Wright State 212. Analysis: The Horizon doesn’t want to see Butler start rolling. Line: Butler -11. Pick: Butler 68, Wright State 49.

#10 Loyola (7-22, 1-17) at #3 Detroit (18-13, 11-7)

7 p.m. Regular-season meetings: Dec. 31 – Detroit 65-54*; Jan. 25 – Detroit 67-52. RPI: Detroit 148; Loyola 306. Analysis: The Titans have as much talent as anyone in the Horizon. They’ll play like it, at least for one round. Line: Detroit -14. Pick: Detroit 78, Loyola 53.

#7 Green Bay (15-14, 10-8) at #6 Youngstown State (15-10, 10-8)

7:05 p.m. Regular-season meetings: Jan. 22 – Youngstown 77-47; Feb. 14 – Green Bay 71-65. RPI: Youngstown 173, Green Bay 143. Analysis: The two teams have identical records, but the Penguins have the better team. Line: Youngstown State -2. Pick: Youngstown State 72, Green Bay 57.

#9 Illinois-Chicago (7-22, 1-17) at #4 Milwaukee (19-12, 11-7)

8 p.m. Regular-season meetings: Dec. 3 – Milwaukee 73-71 (OT); Feb. 23 – Milwaukee 72-61*. RPI: Milwaukee 119, Illinois-Chicago 296. Analysis: After losing 4 of 5 from Jan. 28-Feb. 12, the Panthers are rolling again with four straight wins. Line: Milwaukee -14. Pick: Milwaukee 75, Illinois-Chicago 54.

*Road win

Iona vs. Rider: Friday Thoughts

Raphielle Johnson — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 15:16:23 -0800

Light schedule tonight with Ivy League Fridays not really getting going on a consistent basis until next weekend, but there are some entertaining matchups to keep fans occupied. Both MAAC matchups consist of top-half (of the standings) teams taking on squads hoping to avoid "First Round Friday" in March's conference tournament. One such game is Iona hosting Rider on ESPNU, and while Tommy Dempsey's Broncs have been a major disappointment this year they have the firepower necessary to keep up with the Gaels.

But can Danny Stewart and company defend well enough to keep talents such as Scott Machado (the national leader in assists) and Mike Glover (AKA Optimus Prime) in check? Novar Gadson, who has found the going tough in recovering from offseason microfracture surgery, has shot 5-for-17 in his last three games and one has to wonder if there's some fatigue at play. The chemistry was off during non-conference play, especially with the addition of Virginia transfer Jeff Jones, but that seemed to be improving some before dropping games at Siena and Fairfield.

Also in the MAAC surprising Manhattan visits a Marist team that seems to be young every season, and it could become a situation where Chuck Martin's club needs a run in the MAAC Tournament to avoid a regime change. Freshman Chavaughn Lewis has been one of the better rookies in the MAAC and he's second on the team in scoring to Devin Price, but the Red Foxes average 15.7 turnovers per game. That could be an issue against Steve Masiello's Jaspers, who will look to ramp up the tempo with their full-court pressure.

George Beamon has led the way offensively for Manhattan, and after last season some seemed to forget how explosive a scorer he was in high school. Manhattan is a young team as well but they've all bought in to Masiello's vision for the program, and the team's experienced more success than expected as a result. Last year's meeting in Poughkeepsie looked to be a win for the home team...until Michael Alvarado did this. Hopefully we get similar fireworks tonight.

The best game of the night is in the Horizon League as first-place Milwaukee visits a Youngstown State team that's turned some heads this season. Seniors Kaylon Williams and Tony Meier lead the way for Rob Jeter's club, but they're going to have to be at their best defensively especially on the perimeter as the Penguins have multiple scoring options there. But what Youngstown State doesn't have is muscle in the paint, and Milwaukee may be able to take advantage of that. Butler was able to do so last weekend in their home win over YSU, and that could be what keeps Youngstown State from being a title contender this season.

Cleveland State is another Horizon contender and they host Green Bay, a team that has the ability to upset an unsuspecting title contender if not work their way back into the race. Center Alec Brown leads the way for the Phoenix, and his height (7'1") could be an issue for the Vikings in the paint. But can Green Bay slow down Jeremy Montgomery? That's easier said than done. And in the Atlantic Sun, Florida Gulf Coast visits Stetson in a battle of teams that are hoping to eventually separate from a middle of the pack that features five teams with either three or four league losses.

NCAA Division I Games
7:00 PM Florida Gulf Coast at Stetson (ESPN3)
7:05 PM Milwaukee at Youngstown State (ESPN3)
8:00 PM Green Bay at Cleveland State (ESPNU)
9:00 PM Manhattan at Marist (ESPN3)
10:00 PM Rider at Iona (ESPNU)

College Hoops Monday Recap: Syracuse Returns the Favor

Raphielle Johnson — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 09:45:23 -0800

Usually a concern to play a bit reckless when in his hometown of Philadelphia, Scoop Jardine had no such issues on Monday night in leading Syracuse to a 69-64 win over Villanova at the Well Fargo Center. Jardine made seven of eleven shots from the field, finishing with 20 points along with six assists and four rebounds and fellow Philadelphian Rick Jackson added 18 points and five rebounds. Offensively this contest was a far cry from the first meeting between the two, an 83-72 Villanova win that featured a combined 21 three-pointers made with the Wildcats making 11. Monday night's number: nine, and Jay Wright's team went 5-for-26 on the night.

Corey Stokes made his return to the lineup for the Wildcats and was their best offensive player, making seven of thirteen from the field to score a game-high 24 points, making all five Villanova three-pointers as well. But fellow guards Corey Fisher and Maalik Wayns were ice-cold from the field, shooting a combined 4-for-25 from the field and as a team Villanova shot 32.3%. Isaiah Armwood added a double-double with 12 points and 10 rebounds but it wasn't enough to avoid dropping to 9-6 in Big East play. Syracuse's third straight win moves them to 10-6 in Big East play and puts them back into the conversation for one of those double-bye slots in the upcoming Big East Tournament.

And in a weird scheduling break for the Orange they've got just two games left in the regular season: at Georgetown on Saturday and DePaul in the home finale the following week. They'll have plenty of time to make adjustments on both ends of the floor, with the hope likely being to get guys such as Fab Melo and James Southerland to reach a level where they can be counted on for a few minutes down the road. But at the very least the light schedule gives guys like Jackson, Jardine, Kris Joseph and Brandon Triche some time off as they'll be the ones who have to lead Syracuse in March.

Other Notable Happenings

1. Tyshawn Taylor's absence has no impact as Kansas throttles Oklahoma State.
Any chance that Oklahoma State had of leaving Lawrence with a much-needed victory disappeared about halfway through the first half, with Kansas going on a 23-6 run over an eight-minute stretch to blow the game wide open. Marcus Morris scored 27 points while brother Markieff and Elijah Johnson added 15 apiece in a 92-65 win that keeps the Jayhawks within a game of first place Texas atop the Big 12. Marshall Moses scored a game-high 27 points but it was an uphill battle for the senior, especially when Keiton Page shoots 2-for-11 and Matt Pilgrim finds a way to play just 13 minutes before fouling out early in the second half. The biggest impact felt in the suspenseon of guard Tyshawn Taylor: the opportunity for Johnson to play more minutes, and as he did early in the season with Josh Selby out he took advantage of the time. The Jayhawks shot 54.4% and out-rebounded the Cowboys 38-25 on the night, and it's near impossible to beat Kansas when they're able to do that.

2. Green Bay's win over Valparaiso adds a lot of intrigue to the Horizon League race.
Bryquis Perine came up with a good way to celebrate his Senior Night and in the process made things a lot more interesting in the Horizon League. Perine's jumper with 11 seconds left in overtime gave Green Bay an 81-80 win over then-first place Valparaiso, dropping the Crusaders into third place (tied with Milwaukee) with two league games to go. Cleveland State sits atop the league with a 12-4 record and just a half-game behind them at 12-5 in Butler, a team more than a few counted out of the title race just a couple weeks ago. All four teams have a shot at earning the top seed in the upcoming conference tournament, the golden carrot that also means hosting the quarters and semis of the event (the highest remaining seed hosts the final). At this point it's safe to assume that Butler, Cleveland State and Valparaiso will be playing in a postseason tournament in March. But the fight to figure out which one became even more interesting following Monday night's result.

3. Texas Southern avenges their lone conference loss to move to 13-1 in the SWAC.
Tony Harper's Tigers have now one seven straight games, beating Mississippi Valley State 58-55 in overtime on Monday night to avenge their lone SWAC loss to move to 13-1 in conference play. Texas Southern is now three games ahead of Jackson State in the loss column with four games to go, but thanks to their season sweep of JSU Coach Harvey's team is likely one win away from sewing up an NIT berth. Travele Jones scored 17 points and Lawrence Johnson-Danner added 13 for Texas Southern, who won just three games in the non-conference portion of their schedule. Jones has reached double-figures in every game he's played (missing the first seven due to compliance issues), and averages a team-best 17.3 points and 7.1 rebounds per game. They've been tested in the non-conference portion of their schedule and it's paid off within the SWAC for Texas Southern, the goal for many of the HBCUs who play such a schedule in order to both build experience and balance the athletic department accounts.

Top Three Games

1. Green Bay 81, Valparaiso 80 (OT)

2. Kent State 74, Western Michigan 72 Michael Porrini was the hero in Kalamazoo, scoring the final of his 19 points off the bench on a jumper with two seconds remaining to knock off WMU. Flenard Whitfield, whose layup with 48 seconds remaining tied the game at 72, finished with 24 points and eight rebounds to lead the Broncos.

3. (20) Syracuse 69, (14) Villanova 64

Three Notable Performances

1. C Alec Brown (Green Bay) 22 points, 12 rebounds, two assists and two blocks in the Phoenix' 81-80 overtime win over Valparaiso.

2. F Antwaine Wiggins (Charleston) 24 points (10-13 FG), nine rebounds and four assists in the Cougars' 75-49 win over Samford.

3. F Marcus Morris (Kansas) 27 points, five rebounds and two steals in the Jayhawks' 92-65 win over Oklahoma State.

HL Quaterfinals: News, Notes, and Results

Bill Kintner — Sat, 06 Mar 2010 06:45:19 -0800

Detroit Frustrates Green Bay

INDIANAPOLIS – For Detroit it was part big man in the middle, part penetrating guards and part taking Green Bay’s leading scorer out of his game. All of this added up to a 62-53 win for the Titans in the Horizon League Championship quarter-final game.

The big man part for Detroit was 6’ 10” Eli Holman. He muscled in 16 points and pulled down 11 rebounds.

Detroit’s penetrating guards were Woody Payne and Chase Simon. Payne scored seven points and registered five assists. For Simon it was five points and three assists.

Part III, holding Rahmon Fletcher’s scoring down was what Detroit coach Ray McCallum thought was the key to their win. Fletcher came in averaging 17.1 ppg and when the buzzer sounded he had just three points going 1-10 from the field.

“Or focus was on him. Paying attention to Fletcher and slowing him down.”

The scoring started for Detroit (20-13) when Holman slammed home a dunk at the 18:37 mark and from that 2-0 lead the Titans never trailed in the game.

“One thing our coach preached to us, was going to the glass and I know I’m good at that, going to the glass,” said Holman.

The Phoenix got the score down to one point twice in the first half the last time on a 3-pointer by Troy Cotton with 13:52 left.

The Titans did get the lead up as high as eight points at 24-16 with 6:30 left, but Green Bay (21-12) kept fighting and when Seth Evans hit a 3-pointer with 34 seconds left they briefly got it two within two points at 28-26 before Thomas Kennedy hit a 3-pointer with three seconds left to push their halftime to five at 31-26.

In the second half Green Bay never got closer than five points.

“Without a question, a disappointing and frustrating loss. The key word is frustrating. Give Detroit credit for that, they took us out of what we wanted to do offensively and we got frustrated,” said Kowalczyk.

Milwaukee Takes Down Cleveland State

INDIANAPOLIS – The nightcap was similar to the first game only this time it was Milwaukee scoring the first basketball and going wire-to-wire to win 82-75 over Cleveland State.

The Panthers spread their scoring around with six players scoring in double digits.

It did get a little exciting in the second half. With Milwaukee leading by 20 points at 62-42, Cleveland State’s Norris Cole drove down the lane and made a layup. That led to 13 straight points by the Vikings to make it 64-55 with 5:58 left in the game.

Finally a layup by Milwaukee’s Anthony Hill at the 4:46 mark got the score back up to double figures at 66-55. Cleveland State (16-17) spent the rest of the game whittling the score down to the final deficit of seven.

“We responded, our guys responded with layups to break the pressure,” said Milwaukee coach Rob Jeter.

Panther player Ja’Rob McCallum also pointed out that they also kicked the ball out when pressured.

“We usually have a guy on the baseline and our bigs are in and out flashing high post.”

Cleveland State’s coach Gary Water agreed that going inside was the difference in this game.

“They could go inside anytime they wanted and get a basket,” Waters explained. “Anytime we made a run and went at them, they would go right to the heart of our defense.”

The first half saw Milwaukee (20-13) go up by as many as 11 points before ending the half up by eight points at 32-24.

Milwaukee’s balanced scoring was led by Hill and McCallum with 14 points. Ricky Franklin had 13 points, Ryan Haggerty had 12 points, James Eayers had 11 points, with seven rebounds and Jason Everkamp pitched in 10 points.

Cleveland State’s Tim Kamczyc led all scorers with 20 points, Cole had 16 points, Jeremy Montgomery had 15 points and Lance James had 13 points.

Quarterfinal Notes

- Wright State coach Brad Brownell had his team practice on Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday was an off day, then they practiced Thursday in Dayton and Friday for 90 minutes at Hinkle Fieldhouse. Brownell wasn’t sure if having a week off was a good thing or not. No games for a week, is good for his team, which is down two players due to injuries, so his team will be well rested. But playing either Detroit or Green Bay after they played two games might have them in a flow and his team a little rusty. The Raiders worked on things for each team. Today Wright State spent the bulk of their practice today working on their half court offense.

- Butler coach Brad Stevens had the same practice schedule as Wright State going on Monday and Tuesday, Thursday and Friday, with Wednesday off. Stevens spent this week watching game films against his possible opponents, Milwaukee and Cleveland State. He also watched some film of them playing teams that he thought might be similar to Butler’s style of play. Stevens didn’t reveal anything different his team was doing before their semi-final game.

- This is Detroit’s first winning season in six years (18-13, 2003-04) and they reached 20 wins for the first time since going 25-12 in2000-01.

- Detroit leads the overall series with Green Bay 20-19.

- UWM-holds a 20-14 lead in the overall series with Cleveland State.

- Milwaukee advanced to the league championship game the last four times it reached the semifinals.

- Big Quote: “I can tell you we’re going to be in a post-season tournament. We are going to play in the post-season and we’re excited to play in the post-season.” Ted Kowalczyk

- Detroit plays Wright State Saturday at 5:15 p.m. The game will be shown on ESPNU on tape-delay at 10 p.m. EST that night.

- Milwaukee plays Butler at 8:00 p.m. The game is live on ESPNU.

College Hoops Wednesday Recap: John Wall Saves Kentucky

Raphielle Johnson — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 22:34:57 -0800

John Calipari attempted to convince the masses following Kentucky's 64-61 win over Connecticut in the SEC/Big East Invitational that his Wildcats were 4-5 instead of 9-0. Good luck convincing people of that, but what needs no selling is how good of a player John Wall is. Foul trouble sat the freshman on the bench for much of the first half and the turnovers (seven) need to decrease, but the Raleigh, NC native took over down the stretch to deliver the win. Wall led all scorers with twenty-five points and also had six steals in the victory.

Momentarily slowed by Jim Calhoun placing 6-9 Stanley Robinson on Wall, the freshman made the play of the night with less than a minute to go. Wall drove left and made a seemingly impossible layup (and getting the foul), turning 61-60 Connecticut into 63-61 Kentucky. After a Ramon Harris free throw the Huskies had two chances to tie but shots from Gavin Edwards and Kemba Walker were off the mark. Another development to keep tabs on as the season progresses is the improved play of DaMarcus Cousins in the second half.

The highly-touted freshman big had a first half to forget, picking up a pair of fouls and also playing in a lackadaisical fashion. Something must have been said in the locker room because Cousins played with more focus and intensity in the second half, finishing the game with ten points and ten rebounds. The Huskies received good nights from Jerome Dyson, Edwards and Kemba Walker but they need Stanley Robinson to be a consistent force if they're to be a factor in the Big East race. But on Wednesday night the MSG stage belonged to one man: John Wall.

Three Key Happenings

1. Green Bay takes out Wisconsin. Rarely does a team from a BCS conference take on the challenge of facing a dangerous mid-major on the road so Bo Ryan should get some credit for simply taking on Green Bay. But the Phoenix did pick up a big win in knocking off the Badgers 88-84 in overtime. Five players scored in double figures for Green Bay with Bryquis Perine leading the team with twenty-two, and that balance played a major role in the outcome. Wisconsin had Trevon Hughes (27 points) and Jon Leuer (26 points) combine for fifty-three, but outside of Ryan Evans' eleven there was little help from the other Badgers offensively.

Wisconsin also racked up an uncharacteristic eighteen turnovers but to focus on what the Badgers didn't do would be unfair to a squad that's quietly won nine games. Head coach Tod Kowalczyk jokingly asked in the postgame press conference if the win made them better than Duke, and while that may be a stretch the Phoenix should be a factor in the Horizon League race.

2. Should Michigan fans be worried? The Wolverines, who to their credit have taken on a tough early-season schedule, dropped another one Wednesday night in Salt Lake City. Manny Harris scored twenty-five and DeShawn Sims added ten but the other three starters combined for just seven points in Utah's 68-52 victory. Utah on the other hand had four starters reach double figures and the fifth (Kim Tillie) scored eight. Freshman Marshall Henderson, who will make some waves in the Mountain West this season, led Jim Boylen's team with 22 points while Carlon Brown added 12 points, eight rebounds and five assists.

The balance that Michigan currently lacks is exactly what got them beat and has also doen them in three other times this season. Harris needs to receive consistent help from the three other starters, especially Laval Lucas-Perry and Darius Morris in the backcourt. Games against Kansas and Connecticut offer John Beilein's team two more opportunities for another solid non-conference win but they're going to have a hard time as the season progresses if "Manny Fresh" has to shoulder the entire load.

3. Oral Roberts upsets Missouri despite seventeen turnovers. Dominique Morrison may have led the victors with 21 points (17 in the second half) but Michael Craion was the hero of the 60-59 result. Craion made a layup with less than a second remaining to provide the margin, giving the Tigers their second road loss of the season. The Golden Eagles were able to survive their turnovers due to a +8 rebounding margin and shooting just 3-for-14 from behind the arc. The Tigers, who were led in scoring by Marcus Denmon (17 points in 19 minutes off the bench), attempted just three foul shots (making one) while ORU went 9-for-12 from the charity stripe and that disparity also played a role in the outcome. The Golden Eagles are a perennial contender in the Summit League and if Wednesday's result proved anything it's that they'll once again be in the discussion.

Top Three Games

1. Oral Roberts 60, Missouri 59 See above.

2. Green Bay 88, Wisconsin 84 (OT) See above.

3. (tie) Harvard 74, Boston College 67 Two straight years the Eagles have lost to the Crimson in the game following an ACC win. Jeremy Lin (25 points) and Keith Wright (21 points) led the way for Tommy Amaker's squad.

Kentucky 64, Connecticut 61 See above.

Three Notable Performances

1. G Tony Crocker (Oklahoma) Crocker led the Sooners with 33 points and 13 rebounds in their 86-62 win over Centenary.

2. F Jeff Allen (Virginia Tech) Allen, who has performed much better since Seth Greenberg has brought him off the bench, posted the line of 24 points, 13 rebounds and five assists in the Hokies' 98-73 win over VMI.

3. (tie) G David Kool (Western Michigan) and G John Wall (Kentucky) While Wall's late-game heroics and twenty-five points have already been mentioned one of the best guards in the nation rarely mentioned deserves some praise as well. Kool led the Broncos to a 69-58 win at Eastern Illinois with 34 points.

Horizon League Preview: 2009-10

CHN — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 12:45:03 -0800

Butler, with legitimate Elite Eight aspirations, should be the dominant force in the Horizon. An infusion of Juco talent and returning injured players should help the quality of play throughout the league.

Conference Rank: 12th

10 year average: 15th

Conference Page

All-Horizon Team
Pos.	Player	Team	Yr.

G	Shelvin Mack	Butler	So
G	Norris Cole	Cleveland St	Jr
G	Vaughn Duggins	Wright St	Jr
G/F	Gordon Hayward	Butler	So
F	Matt Howard	Butler	Jr

Player of the Year - Gordon Hayward Freshman of the Year - Seth Evans (Green Bay)
CHN Award Winners		Leaders
CHN All-Americans Gordon Hayward Mid-Major All-Americans Gordon Hayward (1st Team) Matt Howard (1st)		Best Scorer: Gordon Hayward Best Rebounder: Matt Howard Best Passer: Spencer Stewart

Horizon League Standings
Nat'l	Team	League	Tourney

11	Butler	Horizon	1	NCAA
57	Wright State	Horizon	2	NIT
87	UWM	Horizon	3	CBI/CIT
111	Green Bay	Horizon	4	CBI/CIT
152	Cleveland St	Horizon	5
177	Valparaiso	Horizon	6
200	Illinois Chicago	Horizon	7
231	Detroit	Horizon	8
281	Youngstown St	Horizon	9
310	Loyola Ill	Horizon	10

*Click on links for full Top 144 team preview

Poll: Who Do You Think Will Win the HL?

College Basketball Preview - 348 Team Ranking - Alphabetical Ranks/Previews

Poll: Who Will Win the Horizon League?

Shawn Siegel — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 09:04:57 -0700

Green Bay Basketball Preview: #111

Joel Welser — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 10:16:40 -0700

Overall Rank: #111

Conference Rank: #4 Horizon League

2008-09: 22-11, 13-5

2008-09 postseason: CBI

Coach: Tod Kowalczyk (114-99 at Wisconsin Green Bay, 114-99 overall)

It seems like every year Wisconsin Green Bay is on the verge of big things and then it falls apart at the end. The team is beginning to develop the reputation of finishing poorly and that leaves the Phoenix on the outside looking in. At least during the 2008-2009 campaign the team made the postseason, but this is a program that has had NCAA aspirations over the last five years and has failed every time.

Key Losses: F Terry Evans, F Mike Schachtner, G Ryan Tillema

Key Newcomers:

This year may not be any different since Coach Tod Kowalczyk will have to rely on quite a few newcomers. The biggest need is in the paint and there are certainly plenty of newcomers who can help in that regard. Junior college transfer Greg LeSage is the most experienced option, but power forward Matt Smith may be the most talented when all is said and done. Either way, one of those two will have to start unless the Phoenix opt for a smaller and quicker lineup. Clayton Heuer and Troy Snyder are two more forwards who will be looking for some playing time.

Backcourt:

The newcomers on the perimeter, Seth Evans and Rian Pearson, are talented, but there is a lot of experience already on the perimeter. Troy Cotton has emerged as quite the shooter and is the team’s leading returning scorer after averaging 12.6 points per game last year. It would be beneficial if Cotton would be more aggressive getting to the basket, but he definitely does a great job shooting and will take the big shots for this team. Bryquis Perine is an intriguing option after averaging 17.3 minutes per game last year and could provide a bigger spark off the bench this year. In fact, Perine could even move into the starting lineup if Green Bay wants to put Cordero Barkley at the four spot. Barkley missed last year, but he is a very experienced player who can do a little bit of everything. Whether his team needs him at the three or the four spot depends on how well the newcomers play, but Barkley will be ready to play either position.

Frontcourt:

The frontcourt might look a little slim until the newcomers come around, but Randy Berry is not a bad player to build around. He is not much of an interior scorer, but he did lead the team in rebounding and blocked shots as a junior last year. He will miss having Mike Schachtner and Terry Evans by his side, but Berry could develop into a better scorer now that he will be given the opportunity. Pat Nelson, a 6-9 senior, will compete with the newcomers for a starting spot and minutes off the bench, but he is not much of a scorer either. This is a team that is used to not having a major scorer under the basket, but it would help out the shooters a lot if somebody could step up.

Who to Watch:

Rahmon Fletcher is not one of those shooters, but he is what makes this team go. The junior point guard dished out 4.5 assists per game last year and averaged 10.8 points. Fletcher can hit the long ball, but he does his best work off the dribble and getting to the basket and either finishing or finding a teammate. Now that he is an upperclassman, the entire UWGB offense should feel like they are in safe, capable hands.

Final Projection:

It will be interesting to see how things play out in Green Bay this year. The team loses a lot of talent, but there is a lot of talent left behind. The big question is who is going to start at the three or four spot. LeSage has experience, but Smith could steal that spot away sooner or later. Or will the coaching staff opt to put Perine or Pearson at the three spot and move the 6-5 Barkley to the four spot? That would be a very fast team if that were the case, but it might hurt on the defensive end of the floor.

Projected Post-season Tournament: CBI/CIT

Projected Starting Five:

Rahmon Fletcher, Junior, Guard, 10.8 points per game

Troy Cotton, Senior, Guard, 12.6 points per game

Cordero Barkley, Senior, Forward, DNP last season

Greg LeSage, Junior, Forward, DNP last season

Randy Berry, Senior, Forward, 6.4 points per game

College Basketball Preview - 144 Teams in 144 Days - Preview Interviews

Horizon League Tournament: Preview & Predictions

Evan Dorey — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 19:47:26 -0800

This is one in a series of conference tournament previews, in which I run down all the teams involved, giving a brief statistical review and presenting the log5 projections, using in-conference offensive and defensive efficiency. The basic log5 methodology comes from Bill James, and this is an area Ken Pomeroy has looked at in the past as well. I claim nothing new in the application, but obviously with slightly different methodologies, these numbers may differ from others you find. I don’t claim to be an expert on any particular conference, and I’m sure there are some mis-characterizations on some players I’ve seen sparingly at best, so please add your thoughts in the comments. Anyway, with no further ado, the preview follows below:

Horizon League Championship

The Horizon league utilizes a two-round bye, in which the bottom 8 teams battle for spots in the semifinals, where the top 2 seeds are waiting for them. First round games are hosted at campus sites, the quarters and semis are in the #1 seeds’ building, and the highest remaining seed hosts the final.

Tournament Odds

#	Team	QF	SF	F	W
1	Butler	100.00%	100.00%	86.12%	68.48%
2	Green Bay	100.00%	100.00%	56.98%	16.28%
3	Cleveland St.	97.12%	81.56%	40.18%	11.28%
4	Wright St.	92.77%	61.28%	10.15%	3.04%
5	Milwaukee	90.81%	35.86%	3.66%	0.74%
6	Youngstown St.	60.07%	9.91%	1.43%	0.08%
7	Illinois Chicago	39.93%	7.87%	1.38%	0.09%
8	Loyola Chicago	9.19%	1.13%	0.02%	0.00%
9	Valparaiso	7.23%	1.73%	0.05%	0.00%
10	Detroit	2.88%	0.66%	0.03%	0.00%

Only two teams look to have any legitimate shot of stopping Butler and causing consternation across the bubble, Green Bay and Cleveland St. There’s also a pretty clear drop-off below the #5 seed, with the bottom five having little chance to even make the final.

#1 – Butler Bulldogs (25-4, 15-3) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.153

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2008 (2^nd Round)

There’s no Horizon team that’s as complete as the Bulldogs, who have the conference’s best defense and one of its best attacks. They make more than 50% of their shots from inside the arc, and get a lot of points from the free throw line, but turn the ball over more than a ‘traditional’ Butler team. Butler’s defense is spectacular at stopping shots, holding opponents to 36% from the field and 30% from three.

Players to watch:

6-8 FR Gordon Hayward, 13.8 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.6 SPG, 1.0 BPG, 61.7 eFG% - Hayward has been one of the nation’s best freshmen, and looks like the kind of player power conference programs will be kicking themselves over the years to come. He doesn’t lead Butler in scoring or rebounding, but is easily the team’s most efficient option, a good inside guy who shoots 46% from behind the arc and over 80% from the free throw line. He’s also a solid defender, averaging better than a block and a steal, and should be a player to watch throughout the month of March.

6-8 SO Matt Howard, 14.3 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 1.6 BPG, 55.6 eFG% - Another key to Butler’s successful season, Howard is a good inside scorer who does his best work at the free throw line; he’s 7^th in the nation in free throw rate, and hits them at a 77% clip. He’s also the team’s best rebounder, and one of the Horizon’s best shot blockers.

#2 – Green Bay Phoenix (22-9, 13-5) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.103

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1996 (1^st Round)

Green Bay is as good a shooting team as you’ll find in the country, the only team in the top 5 nationally in both three-point and free-throw shooting. It’s also pretty solid inside, and manages to hold on to the ball, all of which adds up to the conference’s best offense. When the Phoenix get on a roll, they can put up some frightening offensive numbers, which is good, because their defense hasn’t been particularly strong. They are the worst team in the Horizon on the defensive glass, and are only average at defending shots, so they need all the points they can get.

Players to watch:

6-8 SR Ryan Tillema, 17.4 PPG, 4.6 RPG,60.3 eFG% - Tillema missed the first month of the season, and despite starting only 5 games, he leads the Horizon in scoring. He’s a 44% three-point shooter, and is an excellent ball control guard, turning the ball over just 30 times all season.

6-4 JR Troy Cotton, 12.7 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 58.4 eFG% - Cotton is the Phoenix’s most-frequent three-point shooter, and at 42% he’s a very dangerous long-distance option. Like Tillema, he doesn’t turn the ball over much, and is an incredibly efficient offensive player.

#3 – Cleveland St. Vikings (21-10, 12-6) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.093

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1986 (Sweet Sixteen)

The Vikings’ season may best be remembered for some close finishes, falling on a buzzer-beating three against Butler and winning on a miraculous half-court shot at Syracuse. An eight-game winning streak towards the close of the conference season got them into the battle for a second seed, but they couldn’t clinch it, forcing them to play two extra games. The Vikings are the most inside-oriented team in the tournament, a good thing, given their poor three point shooting. They also struggle to defend the outside shot, but make up for it by leading the league in shot-blocking and forcing turnovers.

Players to watch:

6-5, SR J’Nathan Bullock, 15.6 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 47.7 eFG% - Bullock is a critical player for the Vikings, leading them in both scoring and rebounding. He’s a solid player who does a lot well, but doesn’t have any particular area where he’s a dominant force. His

6-3, SR Cedric Jackson, 9.9 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 5.4 APG, 3.0 SPG, 41.3 eFG% - Almost all of Jackson’s value comes when he’s not shooting the ball, and the Vikings should try to avoid possessions ending in his hands. He makes up for his shooting by leading the conference in assists and steals, while also being a good rebounder.

#4 – Wright St. Raiders (18-12, 12-6) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.068

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2007 (1^st Round)

Wright St. had an 0-6 start to the season, including dropping its first two conference games, but rebounded to reach a 7-3 conference record before picking up a few tough losses down the stretch. The Raiders defend better than any non-Butler team in the HL, holding opponents below 38% from the field, and forcing turnovers at an impressive rate. They play at a pretty slow pace, and are somewhat vulnerable to the three, but their problems tend to come from the offensive end. Wright St. simply doesn’t make many shots, just 41% from the field, and compounds that by getting very few of their misses back. It does manage to get shots up, as it rarely turns it over, but that doesn’t end up producing a lot of points.

Players to watch:

6-7 JR Cory Cooperwood, 9.4 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 49.0 eFG% - Cooperwood’s stats fit Wright St.’s profile really well: he’s only a decent scorer by many team’s standards, but he’s the Raiders’ most efficient offensive player. He’s also an effective defender, recording good block and steal rates, and is easily the Raiders’ best rebounder.

6-5 JR Todd Brown, 11.8 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 49.5 eFG% - Brown plays more minutes than any other Raider, and is the only serious three-point threat on the team, a 43% shooter from behind the arc. 39% from two, though, means he that he should try and stick to the outside shot.

#5 – Milwaukee Panthers (16-13, 11-7) ; Efficiency Margin: +0.024

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2006 (2^nd Round)

Milwaukee looked to be serious challengers for the conference title when it sat at 7-1 in mid-January, but it closed the season with a 4-6 record, and was unable to parlay a big win over Butler into a top 4 seed. The Panthers shoot a terrible percentage from the field, but have put together a decent offense anyways. They rebound well and take a lot of threes, which they make at a decent clip. Their performance inside the arc is their Achilles heel, as they hit just 43% of inside shots. Defensively, Milwaukee is again around league average, and unlike the offense, it is stronger inside than outside. It is also one of the nation’s weakest teams at forcing turnovers.

Players to watch:

6-7 JR James Eayrs, 11.2 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 50.6 eFG% - One of my favorite moments of the season was watching ‘Big Lumber’ hit the game-tying three against Green Bay, a game that really started an uptick in his minutes and his level of play. He’s 6-7, 340 pounds, and an solid three-point shooter, not the most common sight. He’s good on the glass and at the free throw line, but his biggest asset is his play behind the arc.

6-3 SR Avery Smith, 11.4 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 3.0 APG, 1.2 SPG, 42.9 eFG% - Smith does just about everything but make shots, leading the team in assists and steals and sitting second in scoring and rebounds. His problem is his shooting percentages, which are terrible, 39% overall and just 29% from behind the arc.

#6 – Youngstown St. Penguins (11-18, 7-11) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.055

Last NCAA Tournament bid: None

Outside of a four-game stretch that saw it beat both Chicago schools and both Wisconsin schools, Youngstown has struggled to find any consistency, getting some very nice wins, but dropping a lot of games against the bottom teams in the league as well. The Penguins are good three point shooters, but most of their offense comes from inside the arc. They also do quite poorly on turnover margin, forcing few themselves while committing more than most league teams. Their one defensive strength is on the perimeter, where they hold opponents below 33% on three-point attempts. When the ball goes inside, though, they usuallly have trouble getting stops.

Players to watch:

6-7 JR Sirlester Martin, 9.7 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 44.1 eFG% - Martin is second in the Horizon in rebounding, and while he’s only fourth on the team in scoring, he’s part of a fairly even group of scorers around the 10 PPG mark. Martin’s problem is shooting, as he hits just 43% of his two attempts.

6-2 JR DeAndre Mays, 10.9 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 3.4 APG, 43.4 eFG% - Mays’ overall percentages aren’t great, but he’s a solid lead guard, with a good assist rate and the ability to hit the long distance shot.

#7 – UIC Flames (15-14, 7-11) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.036

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2004 (1^st Round)

The Flames are the last team that are close to even in in-conference efficiency margin, and the last team with a significant chance of making the semifinals. A good start and strong finish to the season for UIC were ruined by a 4-11 stretch in the first month and a half of the conference season. This is a quality shooting team, making a good percentage of free throws and threes, but with most of its shots coming from insie, where the Flames shoot just 43%, the offense as a whole isn’t too strong. Interestingly, their opponents tend to have success from outside as well, making a lot of threes and rarely turning the ball over. The Flames’ defensive system leads to opponents taking a large number of threes, and since UIC doesn’t stop enough of them from being made, it has the conference’s second worst defense.

Players to watch:

5-11, SR Josh Mayo, 16.9 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 3.4 APG, 48.6 eFG% - Mayo is part of one of the conference’s best inside-outside combinations, and is second in the Horizon in scoring. The senior guard shoots an almost identical percentage from two and from three, both around 40%, and is excellent at the free throw line, where he shoots 86%. He’s not the primary ball distribution guard, but does manage to average more than 3 assists.

7-0, SR Scott VanderMeer, 10.7 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 2.6 BPG, 41.2 eFG% - VanderMeer is the conference’s best pure big man, a dominant shot-blocker and rebounder. What’s surprising about him is his shooting percentage, which is certainly not as high as you’d expect from a 7-footer.

#8 – Loyola Chicago Ramblers (14-17, 6-12) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.118

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1985 (Sweet Sixteen)

The Ramblers came up with the Horizon’s most surprising result of the year when they snapped a six-game losing streak by being the only HL team to win a regular season game at Hinkle Fieldhouse. They were incredibly efficient on the offensive end in that game, which is the only way they can realistically win with the conference’s worst defense. Horizon opponents have shredded Loyola, shooting over 50% from two, and 46% overall. Loyola also has a worse offense than any team ahead of them in the standings, explaining why there is such a big gap to the bottom three teams. They are the conference’s worst at making shots, but are very good offensive rebounders, and don’t turn it over much.

Players to watch:

6-1, SR J.R. Blount, 13.8 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 3.3 APG, 39.9 eFG% - Blount leads the Ramblers in scoring and assists, but this isn’t really a good thing, as he is quite a poor percentage player, shooting under 40% from the field and struggling with turnovers.

6-8, SR Darrin Williams, 7.2 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 51.4 eFG% - Williams is only Loyola’s fifth ranked scorer, but is really the only player who shoots decently, at 51%. He’s also a good rebounder and shot blocker, and the Ramblers need him to play well in the post.

#9 – Valparaiso Crusaders (9-21, 5-13) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.090

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 2004 (1^st Round)

The Crusaders are the perfect example of why this time of year is so magical, as more than a decade later the Valpo name is still associated with its huge tourney upset in 1998. This edition will have pulled a big upset if it even manages to make the semifinals, as they’ve had a tough season, though they have won two of their last three. Valpo’s offensive struggles have come despite their solid shooting; the problem has been in getting possessions, as they are near the bottom of the league in turnovers and rebounding. Defensively, the Crusaders are pretty mediocre, with he only bright spot being their ability to force turnovers.

Players to watch:

6-9, SR Urule Igbavboa, 12.1 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 2.5 APG, 0.9 BPG, 50.2 eFG% - Igbavboa has taken a larger role in the Valpo offense in his senior year, and seen his efficiency drop from a successful 07-08 season. Still, he’s a versatile player with a lot of talents, leading the Crusaders in scoring, blocks and rebounding and chipping in with some assists as well. He is at his best when he can get to the free throw-line, where he earns a lot of points despite a mediocre percentage.

6-3, SO Howard Little, 9.8 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 1.6 SPG, 54.7 eFG% - Little is the rare Crusader who is a serious threat from behind the arc, and while he doesn’t take a lot of shots, he’s efficient enough to sit second on the team in scoring. He’s also a pretty good rebounder, and leads the team in steals.

#10 – Detroit Titans (7-22, 2-16) ; Efficiency Margin: -0.142

Last NCAA Tournament bid: 1999 (2^nd Round)

It may be as cheesy as it gets, but ‘Mercy’ is an appropriate name for the Titans, given their woeful performance with the ball, one of the worst in-conference offensive showings in the nation. Consider that if they were as good defending against the Horizon average as Memphis have been against Conference USA (which is pretty damn good, if you didn’t know), they’d probably still be a .500 team. Given this, it’s a miracle that they managed to stay within single digits of Butler in both games against the Bulldogs. Interestingly, they manage to be terrible offensively while still making a decent field goal percentage, which should tell you everything you need to know about how useful that stat is in isolation. The problem is twofold, turnovers and three-point shooting. When you make just 25% of long-range attempts, and give the ball up once every four times down the floor, it’s hard to find possessions in which the ball ends up in the basket. Defensively, Detroit are actually decent, mostly because they force turnovers themselves and do well on the glass.

Players to watch:

5-11 JR Woody Payne, 8.5 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 3.6 APG, 2.2 SPG, 45.7 eFG% - Payne is a bit of an oddity, a 5-11 player who takes very few threes, and doesn’t do well on those he does attempt. He’s a decent point guard, leading the team in assists, having one of the best steal rates in the country, and only occasionally struggling with turnovers.

6-7 JR Thomas Kennedy, 11.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 47.5 eFG% - The Titans’ leading scorer, Kennedy could actually be an efficient player if he cut out the three-pointers, on which he shoots just 24%. He’s an OK rebounder, but nothing special, and doesn’t contribute enough in any other area to make up for his poor shot selection.

My statistical all-Horizon League team:

Butler SO G Matt Howard, 14.3 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 1.6 BPG, 55.6 eFG%

UIC SR G Josh Mayo, 16.9 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 3.4 APG, 48.6 eFG%

Green Bay SR G Ryan Tillema, 16.9 PPG, 4.4 RPG,59.4 eFG%

Butler FR G/F Gordon Hayward, 13.8 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.6 SPG, 1.0 BPG, 61.7 eFG%

Cleveland St. SR F J’Nathan Bullock, 15.6 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 47.7 eFG%

Jermaine Taylor: High-Major Player of the Week

Joey Whelan — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 08:20:01 -0800

High-Major Player of the Week

Jermaine Taylor - UCF
2 Game Averages: 36.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 steals, 1.5 blocks

Saturday's 28 point performance on the road at Marshall was somewhat of a disappointment for Jermaine Taylor; it ended a streak of four straight games in which the senior had scored at least 35 points. He saved his best for last though as the scoring machine from Tavares, Florida went for a season high 45 points versus Rice, shooting 14-29 from the field and 12-13 from the charity stripe. Taylor's recent hot stretch has upped his scoring average to 26.1 points, ranking him third in the country in that category. His scoring performances have also gotten his name onto the boards of some NBA scouts, who at the very least will be giving the slightly undersized two-guard a little bit of consideration depending on how he does in workouts.

Finalists

Charles Jenkins - Hofstra
2 Game Averages: 27 points, 2.5 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 3 steals, 1 block, 54.5% FG

In just his second year at the college level Charles Jenkins has blossomed into one of the better all-around players in the CAA. The 6'3" guard is averaging better than 19 points, 4 rebounds and just under 5 assists per game, an improvement in each of those categories from his freshman year. Jenkins had his fourth 30-point game of the season on Saturday, going for 35 in a win over UNC-Wilmington in which he also dished out 8 assists and recorded 5 steals. The Pride may not be going dancing in March, but Jenkins is likely to take home some post season hardware.

Ryan Tillema - Green Bay
2 Game Averages: 23 points, 7 rebounds, 1 steal, 55.5% FG, 64.3% 3FG

The Phoenix have been a nice surprise in the Horizon League this season, staying hot on the tail of conference leader Butler most of the way. The biggest reason has been the play of 6'8" guard Ryan Tillema who has had a very strong senior campaign. A very gifted perimeter shooter and a match up nightmare at this level, Tillema did the bulk of his damage from beyond the arc this week, netting 27 of his total 56 points on three-pointers. The senior just missed out on his second double-double of the year on Saturday, going for 28 points and 9 rebounds in a one point loss to conference foe Wright State.

Last Week's Winner: Brandon Ewing (Wyoming)