Bracketology

Bracketology: Selection Sunday Projection

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 17 Mar 2013 13:16:54 -0700

My final Bracketology projection, 4:00 PM on Selection Sunday.

Why Pay Attention to What I Have to Say: Collegehoops.net's projections have consistently proven to be the best in the business. Over the last 5 years, Shawn Siegel is one of the Top 3 Bracketologists according to the Bracket Project. This ranking includes the likes of Joe Lunardi, Gary Parrish, Jerry Palm, and Andy Glockner.. none of whom come close.

Notes:

Arrows indicate how many seeds a team has moved up or down since the previous update. Conference Champ.

ONE

Louisville 3

Indiana 8

Kansas 5

Gonzaga 7

TWO

Miami 4

Duke 1

New Mexico 2

Georgetown 10

THREE

Ohio St 11

Michigan St 9

Florida 6

Marquette 12

FOUR

Michigan 19

Syracuse 14

Kansas St 20

Saint Louis 20

FIVE

UCLA 26

Arizona 15

Wisconsin 28

Butler 23

SIX

Oklahoma St 27

Pittsburgh 44

North Carolina 16

Memphis 13

SEVEN

VCU 24

Notre Dame 36

Creight on 25

UNLV 21

EIGHT

North Carolina St 33

Oregon 47

Illinois 40

Colorado St 24

NINE

Missouri 35

San Diego St 32

Iowa St 45

Oklahoma 39

TEN

Ole Miss 50

Temple 42

Villanova 52

Cincinnati 49

ELEVEN

Wichita St 37

Minnesota 34

Belmont 17

Boise St 41

TWELVE

Saint Mary's 30

Akron 43

Colorado 38 / Tennessee 59

La Salle 46 / California 53

THIRTEEN + 2

Bucknell 51

South Dakota St 63

New Mexico St 55

Valparaiso 58

FOURTEEN

Davidson 61

Montana 83

Florida Gulf Coast 93

Harvard 94

FIFTEEN

Northwestern St 96

Iona 97

Pacific 105

Western Kentucky 150

SIXTEEN + 2

Albany 128

Long Island 175

James Madison 182 / Liberty 288

Southern 181 / North Carolina A&T 211

Last In: California, Tennessee, La Salle, Colorado

First Out: Maryland 66, Middle Tennessee 29, Kentucky 56, Southern Miss 31

Bracketology: Saturday Night NCAA Tournament Projection

Shawn Siegel — Sat, 16 Mar 2013 20:08:23 -0700

The latest Bracketology projection as of 11:00 PM, March 16th. One more day until Selection Sunday.

Why Pay Attention to What I Have to Say: Collegehoops.net's projections have consistently proven to be the best in the business. Over the last 5 years, Shawn Siegel is one of the Top 5 Bracketologists according to the Bracket Project. This ranking includes the likes of Joe Lunardi, Gary Parrish, Jerry Palm, and Andy Glockner.. none of whom come close.

As always, the field below is a prediction of what the committee would do as things stand today, not what they should do. This is done by taking into account standings, polls, computer rankings, and the committee's historical biases. Check out the follow up Bubble Watch for updates about teams on the NCAA Tournament Bubble, and NITology for a ranking of the best of the rest.

Notes:

Arrows indicate how many seeds a team has moved up or down since the previous update. Conference Champ.

ONE

Gonzaga 7

Louisville 3

Duke 1

Kansas 5

TWO

Indiana 10

New Mexico 2

Georgetown 9

Miami 4

THREE

Ohio St 11

Michigan St 8

Florida 6

Marquette 13

FOUR

Michigan 18

Syracuse 12

Kansas St 16

Oklahoma St 27

FIVE

UCLA 23

Saint Louis 22

Arizona 15

Wisconsin 28

SIX

Memphis 14

Pittsburgh 42

Creighton 26

North Carolina 17

SEVEN

Butler 21

VCU 25

Notre Dame 36

Colorado St 19

EIGHT

UNLV 24

Missouri 35

North Carolina St 30

Illinois 40

NINE

Oregon 49

San Diego St 32

Saint Mary's 33

Iowa St 44

TEN

Temple 41

Oklahoma 40

Villanova 52

Cincinnati 48

ELEVEN

Wichita St 37

Minnesota 34

Belmont 20

Ole Miss 50

TWELVE

Boise St 43

Akron 46

Colorado 38 / Tennessee 59

La Salle 45 / UCONN 47 California 53

THIRTEEN + 2

Bucknell 51

South Dakota St 63

New Mexico St 57

Valparaiso 58

FOURTEEN

Davidson 61

Montana 83

Florida Gulf Coast 93

Harvard 94

FIFTEEN

Northwestern St 96

Iona 97

Pacific 105

Western Kentucky 150

SIXTEEN + 2

Albany 128

Long Island 175

James Madison 182 / Liberty 288

Southern 181 / North Carolina A&T 211

Last In: California, Tennessee, La Salle, Colorado

First Out: Maryland 66, Middle Tennessee 31, Kentucky 56, Southern Miss 29

Poll: Which Surprise Team Has Best Chance of Advancing to Elite 8?

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 19 Mar 2012 07:46:40 -0700

Bracketology Poll: Which Team Was Most Underseeded?

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 22:16:43 -0700

Tournament Poll: Which Is the Most Loaded Region?

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 21:10:43 -0700

Bracketology Poll: Who is the Worst At-Large Team?

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 20:29:03 -0700

Bracketology: Final NCAA Tournament Projection

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 13:32:13 -0700

5:30 PM Sunday: Saint Bonaventure's A10 title knocks Northwestern out of the final at-large bid. Florida St moves up to a 4 seed, while there are multiple changes in the 13-14 change to account for Saint Bonaventure's entry. Michigan St locks up a #1 seed after winning the Big Ten. Seton Hall and Tennessee are my last two in, just edging out South Florida and Mississippi St. I'm about 50/50 on each of those 4 schools, and have little conviction about any of them.

Why Pay Attention to What I Have to Say: Collegehoops.net's projections have consistently proven to be the best in the business. Over the last 4 years, Shawn Siegel is the #1 ranked Bracketologist according to the Bracket Project. This ranking includes the likes of Joe Lunardi, Gary Parrish, Jerry Palm, and Andy Glockner.. none of whom come close.

Notes:

Arrows indicate how many seeds a team has moved up or down since the previous update. Teams in Green are new to the field today. Teams in CAPS have locked up a bid. **=Projected Conference Champs. Conference Champion.

ONE

TWO

THREE

FOUR

FIVE

SIX

Temple

SEVEN

San Diego St

EIGHT

NINE

TEN

ELEVEN

TWELVE

Seton Hall / Tennessee

THIRTEEN + 2

South Dakota St

FOURTEEN

Belmont

FIFTEEN

SIXTEEN + 2

Lamar

Vermont / Mississippi Valley St

Norfolk St / Western Kentucky

Last In: Tennessee, Seton Hall, Texas, NC State

First Out: Mississippi St, South Florida, Drexel, Northwestern

Further Four: Marshall, Washington, Iona, Ole Miss

Dropped Out Of Field (at-large): Northwestern

New (at-large): xx

Conference Bids

- Multiple Bid Leagues

Big East - 9

Big Ten - 7

Big 12 - 6

ACC - 5

SEC - 5

MWC - 4

A-10 - 3

WCC - 3

CUSA - 2

MVC - 2

Pac-12 - 2

------------------- (20 one-bid leagues)

League Leaders/Winners (31)

- #1 team according to current standings

- New leaders in green

- Locked Up Bid

America East - Vermont
A-10 - St Bonaventure
ACC - Florida St
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
Big 12 - Missouri
Big East - Louisville
Big Sky - Montana
Big South - UNC-Asheville
Big Ten - Michigan St
Big West - Long Beach
CAA - VCU
Conference USA - Memphis
Horizon - Detroit
Ivy - Harvard
MAAC - Loyola (MD)
MAC - Ohio
MEAC - Norfolk St
MVC - Creighton
MWC - New Mexico
Northeast - Long Island
Ohio Valley - Murray St
Pac-12 - Colorado
Patriot - Lehigh
SEC - Vanderbilt
Southern - Davidson
Southland - Lamar
SWAC - Mississippi Valley St
Summit - South Dakota St
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky
WAC - New Mexico St
WCC - Saint Mary's

Check out Bubble Watch for updates and NITology for teams that are 2nd best. Follow Shawn @collegehoopsnet for his up to the minute bracketology thoughts.

Bracketology: Sunday Morning Update

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 00:21:32 -0800

3:00 AM Sunday: This is the 2nd to last Bracketology projection of the season, with the last coming sometime before the Selection Show. Since Saturday evening's update, a few teams locked up conference titles, but the overall field looks quite similar. Titles went to Louisville (Big East), Missouri (Big 12), Long Beach St (Big West), Ohio (MAC), New Mexico (MWC), Mississippi Valley St (SWAC), and New Mexico St (WAC).

MVSU is headed for a First Four game, Ohio seems destined for a 14 seed, and New Mexico St will most likely be a 13. I currently have Long Beach as the first 12 seed, but an 11 is not out of the question. Missouri remains the #1 two seed for now, while Louisville stays a 5 despite the win. Its possible they move up to a 4 in final projection, replacing Wichita St. New Mexico moved into a 6 in this late night projection, replacing foe San Diego St. Those two along with UNLV form an odd threesome in the 6-7 range that I'm struggling to sort properly. The committee could conceivably place any of these teams in the 6 through 8 range.

Notes:

ONE

TWO

THREE

FOUR

FIVE

SIX

Temple

SEVEN

San Diego St

EIGHT

NINE

TEN

ELEVEN

Xavier**

TWELVE

THIRTEEN + 2

Tennessee / Northwestern

Belmont

Davidson

FOURTEEN

New Mexico St

South Dakota St

FIFTEEN

SIXTEEN + 2

Lamar

Vermont / Mississippi Valley St

Norfolk St / Western Kentucky

Last In: Northwestern, Tennessee, NC State, Seton Hall

First Out: Mississippi St, South Florida, Drexel, Iona

Further Four: Miami, Washington, Ole Miss, Dayton

Dropped Out Of Field (at-large): xx

New (at-large): xx

Conference Bids

- Multiple Bid Leagues

Big East - 9

Big Ten - 7

Big 12 - 6

ACC - 5

SEC - 5

MWC - 4

A-10 - 3

WCC - 3

CUSA - 2

MVC - 2

Pac-12 - 2

------------------- (20 one-bid leagues)

League Leaders/Winners (31)

- #1 team according to current standings

- New leaders in green

- Locked Up Bid

America East - Vermont
A-10 - Xavier
ACC - North Carolina
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
Big 12 - Missouri
Big East - Louisville
Big Sky - Montana
Big South - UNC-Asheville
Big Ten - Michigan St
Big West - Long Beach
CAA - VCU
Conference USA - Memphis
Horizon - Detroit
Ivy - Harvard
MAAC - Loyola (MD)
MAC - Ohio
MEAC - Norfolk St
MVC - Creighton
MWC - New Mexico
Northeast - Long Island
Ohio Valley - Murray St
Pac-12 - Colorado
Patriot - Lehigh
SEC - Kentucky
Southern - Davidson
Southland - Lamar
SWAC - Mississippi Valley St
Summit - South Dakota St
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky
WAC - New Mexico St
WCC - Saint Mary's

Check out Bubble Watch for updates and NITology for teams that are 2nd best. Follow Shawn @collegehoopsnet for his up to the minute bracketology thoughts.

Bracketology: Saturday Evening NCAA Tournament Projection

Shawn Siegel — Sat, 10 Mar 2012 16:14:40 -0800

7:00 PM Saturday: Bracketology projections will be coming fast and furious right up until Selection Sunday, expect another update at midnight following the rest of the day's action. Please check out my review of each of Saturday's games (including Duke's loss, Ohio St's big win, and Xavier's win) and how it impacted this NCAA Tournament projection.

Notes:

ONE

TWO

Duke**

THREE

FOUR

FIVE

SIX

Temple

SEVEN

EIGHT

NINE

TEN

Harvard**

VCU**

ELEVEN

Xavier**

TWELVE

THIRTEEN + 2

Arizona**

Tennessee / Northwestern

Belmont**

Davidson

FOURTEEN

New Mexico St**

South Dakota St

Akron**

FIFTEEN

SIXTEEN + 2

Lamar

Vermont / Mississippi Valley St**

Norfolk St / Western Kentucky

Last In: Northwestern, Tennessee, NC State, Seton Hall

First Out: Drexel, South Florida, Miami, Mississippi St

Further Four: Washington, Ole Miss, Iona, Dayton

Dropped Out Of Field (at-large): xx

New (at-large): xx

Conference Bids

- Multiple Bid Leagues

Big East - 9

Big Ten - 7

Big 12 - 6

ACC - 5

SEC - 5

MWC - 4

A-10 - 3

WCC - 3

CUSA - 2

MVC - 2

Pac-12 - 2

------------------- (20 one-bid leagues)

League Leaders/Winners (31)

- #1 team according to current standings

- New leaders in green

- Locked Up Bid

America East - Vermont
A-10 - Xavier
ACC - North Carolina
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
Big 12 - Missouri
Big East - Cincinnati
Big Sky - Montana
Big South - UNC-Asheville
Big Ten - Michigan St
Big West - Long Beach
CAA - VCU
Conference USA - Memphis
Horizon - Detroit
Ivy - Harvard
MAAC - Loyola (MD)
MAC - Akron
MEAC - Norfolk St
MVC - Creighton
MWC - San Diego St
Northeast - Long Island
Ohio Valley - Murray St
Pac-12 - Arizona
Patriot - Lehigh
SEC - Kentucky
Southern - Davidson
Southland - Lamar
SWAC - Mississippi Valley St
Summit - South Dakota St
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky
WAC - New Mexico St
WCC - Saint Mary's

Check out Bubble Watch for updates and NITology for teams that are 2nd best. Follow Shawn @collegehoopsnet for his up to the minute bracketology thoughts.

Bracketology Update: Duke Loses, Memphis Rolls, OSU Looking at #1

Shawn Siegel — Sat, 10 Mar 2012 15:41:05 -0800

Here's a look at every game played up until 6 pm on Saturday and how it affects NCAA Tournament Bracketology.

Bubble

North Carolina 69 - NC State 67

What does it mean? UNC should have a #1 seed locked up regardless of whether they beat FSU for the ACC title. NC State is firmly on the bubble, but the fact they were so competitive against UNC could actually be a help. NC St still looks like they should make it as a 12 or 13 seed.

Vanderbilt 65 - Ole Miss 63

What does it mean? Vanderbilt is looking at a 6 seed, and this win probably doesn't change anything. Having won 5 straight, Ole Miss may have been one win short of earning an at-large bid. After this loss, they're probably on the outside looking in.

Xavier 71 - Saint Louis 66

What does it mean? Xavier advances to the A10 final where they'll face Saint Bonaventure. Xavier should be locked into the tournament for now, looking at an 11 seed. This loss doesn't change much for Saint Louis. I had them as an 8 seed going into the day, but the committee could be thinking a 9 or 10 seed.

#1 Seed Battles

Florida St 62 - Duke 59

What does it mean? Duke had been vying for a #1 seed, but that is no longer a possibility. Florida St is probably looking at a 5 seed, but if they went on to beat North Carolina tomorrow, I could see them becoming a 4.

Ohio St 77 - Michigan 55

What does it mean? Ohio St rocked Michigan to advance to the Big Ten final. The Buckeyes could potentially earn a #1 seed if they beat Michigan St for the title. Michigan will be probably hang on to a 3 seed, but could be vulnerable to a 14 like Davidson or the MAC champion.

Kentucky 74 - Florida 71

What does it mean? Kentucky has struggled to dominate teams in the SEC Tournament, but keeps on winning. They're probably locked into the #1 overall seed regardless of what happens in the championship game. Florida is a probable 5 seed, but they could drop to a 6 if Vandy beat Kentucky tomorrow or San Diego St won the MWC tonight.

Title Game

Memphis 83 - Marshall 57

What does it mean? Considering Memphis beat Marshall by 20 on the road, its not a big surprise they blew them out at home either. Memphis rolled through the CUSA Tournament and should be looking at a 7 seed, with 6 as a surprise on the high end and 8 as a surprise on the low end. Marshall will be hoping for an NIT invite.

Potential Spoilers

St Bonaventure 84 - UMASS 80

What does it mean? The Bonnies advance to the A10 finals to face Xavier with automatic-bid on the line. The two met in Cincy back in January, where Xavier won by 13. If St. Bonaventure won, they'd probably be slotted in the 12-13 range and take a spot away from a bubble team.

One-Bid Leagues

Vermont 51 - Stony Brook 43

What does it mean? Vermont's won 14 of 15 games and earned the America East title by winning on the road. Vermont will most likely be looking at a First Four game against Norfolk St or tonight's MEAC winner. They could also conceivably jump past Lamar and earn a spot as a 16 seed in the Tournament proper.

Lamar 70 - McNeese St 49

What does it mean? Lamar earns the Southland's automatic bid and is looking at a 16 seed. At worst, they'll be in a First Four game, and at best they'll jump right into the tournament proper. They'll probably be competing with Vermont of the America East for that distinction.

Norfolk St 73 - Bethune-Cookman 70

What does it mean? Norfolk had a solid season as far as MEAC squads go, but should still be looking at a First Four game against Western Kentucky.