Bracketology

College Basketball: Unbalanced Scheduling Leads to Unfair Respect

Shawn Siegel — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 18:09:05 -0500

Unlike the NBA, college basketball schedules are not equitable. In non-conference play, wealthy schools can host as many home games as they'd like, while other schools can go on the road to raise cash. Schools can choose to play cupcakes or challenge themselves in stacked pre-season tournaments. Even in conference play, some leagues have unbalanced scheduling that can alter the final standings substantially. (Georgetown will never get a chance to avenge last night's overtime loss to Syracuse.)

The reality is that the top teams play mostly meaningless games. The real action (in fact, the only action) happens on the road. The Top 40 teams listed below have only won 36% of their road/neutral games against Top 50 teams, a 58-103 record. In fact, over half of all the losses accumulated by Top 40 team came in these few games. They went 674-93 in other games.

Syracuse & Kentucky, the top 2 teams in the AP Poll, haven't won a single game against a Top 50 team away from home. Perhaps what makes those 2 schools seem so dominant, is not that they are better, but because they are simply untested. Most schools fatten up on wins against teams ranked below 50th in the RPI and against away teams below 100th in the RPI. The Top 40 schools are a whopping 534-40 in these games, winning at a 93% clip.

It is easier to beat a Top 50 team at home as it is to beat a team ranked 51st-100th on the road. The Top 40 teams win 75% of their games against Top 50 teams, and 69% against 51-100 away from home.

Come NCAA Tournament time though, teams don't have the chance to feast on home wins. Only in the 1vs16 or 2vs15 games, can teams play against teams outside the Top 100. The Selection Committee probably does not focus enough on road vs home success in their bracketology decisions, which could lead to some teams being overseeded or underseeded. But you shouldn't fall into that trap. When the Tournament comes around, be sure to check out how teams have fared against quality teams on road or neutral courts. Ohio St & Florida have a whopping 2 combined wins against Top 100 teams away from home in 8 tries. Come tournament time, these numbers will certainly come into play. Perhaps we've found two teams primed for early round upsets?

			R/N	R/N	Home
RPI	Team	Overall	Top 50	51-100	Top 50	Others
1	Syracuse	24-1	0-1	3-0	5-0	16-0
2	Duke	20-4	3-2	3-0	3-2	11-0
3	Kentucky	24-1	0-1	1-0	5-0	18-0
4	Kansas	19-5	2-4	2-0	5-0	10-1
5	Ohio St	21-3	1-3	0-0	5-0	15-0
6	Baylor	20-3	6-1	1-0	1-2	13-0
7	Michigan St	18-5	2-5	0-0	4-0	12-0
8	UNC	20-4	1-3	2-0	3-1	13-0
9	Missouri	22-2	5-1	3-0	1-0	13-1
10	Southern Miss	18-4	1-2	2-1	1-0	14-1
11	UNLV	19-4	2-3	0-1	3-0	14-0
12	Marquette	20-5	1-3	3-1	2-1	14-0
13	Georgetown	17-5	3-3	0-1	3-0	10-1
14	Florida	19-5	0-3	1-0	3-0	15-2
15	Michigan	17-7	1-5	1-1	6-0	9-1
16	Indiana	18-6	1-4	2-0	3-1	12-1
17	Memphis	17-7	1-5	0-1	1-1	15-0
18	Wichita St	20-4	0-2	3-0	1-1	16-1
19	Temple	18-5	3-0	0-2	0-0	15-3
20	San Diego St	18-3	1-2	2-0	3-1	12-0
21	Creighton	21-4	2-0	1-2	1-0	17-2
22	St. Mary's	20-2	1-1	1-1	2-0	16-0
23	Louisville	19-5	1-2	1-0	4-2	13-1
24	UCONN	15-8	2-3	1-1	3-1	8-3
25	Gonzaga	18-4	2-3	1-0	2-1	13-0
26	Colorado St	14-7	0-3	0-3	1-1	13-0
27	Vanderbilt	17-7	2-2	1-1	1-1	13-3
28	Saint Louis	18-5	0-1	4-2	0-1	14-1
29	Wisconsin	18-6	2-2	1-0	3-3	12-1
30	Alabama	16-7	1-3	2-1	0-2	13-1
31	Florida St	16-7	1-4	2-0	2-0	11-3
32	Seton Hall	16-8	1-4	3-2	2-2	10-0
33	West Virginia	16-9	1-5	2-0	3-1	10-3
34	Mississippi St	18-5	1-2	1-2	2-0	14-1
35	Long Beach St	15-6	0-5	2-0	0-0	13-1
36	Miami	14-7	1-3	0-2	0-1	13-1
37	Northwestern	14-8	2-5	1-0	1-2	10-1
38	Murray St	20-0	2-0	0-0	0-0	18-0
39	Harvard	19-2	1-1	1-0	0-0	17-1
40	MTSU	20-4	0-1	1-1	0-0	19-3
			58-103	55-25	85-28	534-40
	Winning % =		0.36	0.69	0.75	0.93

I'll update these numbers occasionally as Selection Sunday rolls around. Post comments below or send a note to @collegehoopsnet on twitter.

Bracketology Poll: How Many ACC Teams Will Make the Tourney?

Shawn Siegel — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 11:36:16 -0500

NIT-Ology: Oklahoma St and Northern Iowa In

Shawn Siegel — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 12:03:17 -0500

The latest 2012 NIT-Ology field as things stand after Tuesday's action. The field below is not who I think deserves to be in, but simply a prediction of what the committee would do as things stand today. NIT-Ology is released following CollegeHoops.net's weekly NCAA Tournament Bracketology update.

Notes on the NIT Field and NIT Bracketology: The NIT field is compose of 32 teams, including regular season champions that do not win their conference tournament. There is no way to predict how many regular season champions will lose their tournaments or which teams that might be. Thus, all that is listed here is the 24 most likely "at-large" teams.

For a statistical breakdown of NCAA Bubble teams, check out the weekly Bubble Watch.

Arrows indicate teams that made a major move since the previous week. New teams in green. Teams that are currently winning their conference tournament (and thus projected to be in the NCAA field) are not included.

NCAA BUBBLE: Last 5 In

BYU

Cincinnati

Xavier

Ole Miss

Colorado St (complete NCAA projection)

ONE

Texas

Seton Hall

Arkansas

Miami

TWO

Arizona

Wyoming

Pittsburgh

Northwestern

THREE

Marshall

UCF

UMASS

Saint Joseph's

FOUR

Colorado

La Salle

Maryland

VCU

FIVE

Ohio

Northern Iowa

New Mexico St

George Mason

SIX

South Florida

Missouri St

Stanford

Oklahoma St

SEVEN

?

?

?

?

EIGHT

?

?

?

?

First Out: Illinois State, South Dakota St, Oregon, Iowa, Dayton

Dropped Out of NIT Field: Oklahoma, Villanova, Virginia Tech

Notes: Seton Hall and Dayton fell out of the NCAA field. The Pirates remain on the NCAA bubble, while Dayton falls all the way to the NIT bubble. Drexel passed George Mason for the CAA lead, and moved into the NCAA field.

Bubble Watch: Miami, Arizona Back From the Dead

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 21:06:55 -0500

Based on CollegeHoops.net's most recent Bracketology projection, here is how the NCAA Tournament Bubble currently stands. CHN will publish Bubble Watch on Tuesday's following the Bracketology update.

As always, the field below is a prediction of what the committee would do as things stand today, not what they should do. Teams are listed in order of likelihood of making the tournament. (Records listed only against D1 teams.)

This week's notes: Mississippi and Colorado State enter the field this week in place of Seton Hall and Dayton. Home losses to URI and Duquesne have crushed Dayton's hopes, while Seton Hall has been a free-fall in the Big East.

None of the computer rankings love Ole Miss, but the computer rankings don't care that the Rebels are in the SEC (unlike the biased human voters.) Colorado St is an interesting case because of their great RPI. The Rams don't have a single "bad" loss, but the problem is that they have few "good" wins.

Miami and Arizona are both back from the dead after mid-year slides. The problem for Arizona is that with Washington leading the Pac-12 and California in the field, there's really no room for a 3rd Pac-12 team. Miami has a much better chance of making the field due to ACC respect.

Middle Tennessee remains in the field as the Sun Belt champion, but were they to lose the conference title, their at-large hopes took a hit with a loss to Denver. MTSU has the record and computer respect of an at-large team, but realistically a Sun Belt team needs to go above and beyond to gain the committee's respect.

Change	Seed	Team	Conf.	Record	RPI	Sagarin	KenPom	AP
	10	California	P12	18-6	49	26	21
	11	Notre Dame	BE	15-8	56	52	47	26
	11	New Mexico	MWC	19-4	46	17	11	33
	11	Minnesota	BE	17-7	50	45	45
	11	NC State	ACC	17-7	53	55	61
	12	BYU	WCC	20-6	43	31	34	38
	12	Cincinnati	BE	16-7	98	51	50
	12	Xavier	A10	15-8	54	59	57
	12	Ole Miss	SE	14-8	51	95	104
	12	Colorado St	MWC	15-7	26	92	103
Bubble
		Texas	B12	15-9	57	28	23
		Seton Hall	BE	15-8	32	58	69
		Wyoming	MWC	18-5	69	60	54
		Arizona	P12	16-8	63	40	36
		Arkansas	SEC	16-7	60	75	75
		Miami	ACC	14-7	58	54	52	38
		UCF	CUSA	17-6	67	94	97
		Marshall	CUSA	14-9	61	77	76
		Northwestern	B10	14-8	37	67	71

Dropped Out of Bubble Watch: Dayton, Stanford

Projected Conference Champs that would be on the Bubble if they lost title:

Change	Seed	Team	Conf.	Record	RPI	Sagarin	KenPom	AP
	11	Washington	P12	16-7	76	64	64
Bubble
	13	Middle Tennessee	SB	21-4	44	42	42
	13	Oral Roberts	SUM	21-5	47	63	73
	13	Long Beach St	BW	17-6	36	43	46	32
	13	Davidson	SOU	18-5	66	60	62
	14	Iona	MAAC	19-5	58	45	49	35t
	14	Nevada	WAC	19-4	72	102	107

Projected Conference Leaders Out of Bubble Watch: none

We'd love to hear your thoughts in the comments section or on twitter @collegehoopsnet :

Bracketology: Colorado State Squeaks In

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 11:17:32 -0500

Collegehoops.net's Bracketology projections have consistently proven to be the best in the business. Over the last 4 years, Shawn Siegel is the #1 ranked Bracketologist according to the Bracket Project. This ranking includes the likes of Joe Lunardi, Gary Parrish, Jerry Palm, and Andy Glockner.. none of whom come close.

As always, the field below is a prediction of what the committee would do as things stand today, not what they should do. This is done by taking into account standings, polls, computer rankings, and the committee's historical biases. Check out the follow up Bubble Watch for rankings and standings of teams on the NCAA Tournament Bubble

Notes:

Arrows indicate how many seeds a team has moved up or down since the previous update. Teams in Green are new to the field today. Teams in CAPS have locked up a bid. **=Projected Conference Champs

ONE

TWO

Kansas**

THREE

FOUR

FIVE

SIX

SEVEN

Temple**

Gonzaga

Vanderbilt

Harvard**

EIGHT

NINE

TEN

ELEVEN

TWELVE + 2

Ole Miss / Colorado St

THIRTEEN

FOURTEEN

Iona**

Nevada**

Akron**

Cleveland St**

FIFTEEN

Belmont**

Drexel**

Bucknell**

Weber St**

SIXTEEN + 2

Long Island**

Norfolk St**

UNC-Asheville** / Mississippi Valley St**

Texas-Arlington** / Stony Brook**

Last In: Colorado St, Ole Miss, Xavier, Cincinnati

First Out: Texas, Seton Hall, Wyoming, Arizona

Further Four: Arkansas, Miami, UCF, Marshall

Dropped Out Of Field (at-large): Dayton, Seton Hall

New (at-large): Colorado St, Ole Miss

Conference Bids

- Multiple Bid Leagues

Big East - 8

Big Ten - 8

SEC - 6

ACC - 5

Big 12 - 5

MWC - 4

A-10 - 3

WCC - 3

CUSA - 2

MVC - 2

Pac-12 - 2

------------------- (20 one-bid leagues)

League Leaders/Winners (31)

- #1 projected team for now.

- New leaders in green

America East - Stony Brook
A-10 - Temple
ACC - Duke
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
Big 12 - Kansas
Big East - Syracuse
Big Sky - Weber St
Big South - UNC-Asheville
Big Ten - Ohio State
Big West - Long Beach
CAA - Drexel
Conference USA - Southern Miss
Horizon - Cleveland St
Ivy - Harvard
MAAC - Iona
MAC - Akron
MEAC - Norfolk St
MVC - Creighton
MWC - San Diego St
Northeast - Long Island
Ohio Valley - Murray St
Pac-12 - Washington
Patriot - Bucknell
SEC - Kentucky
Southern - Davidson
Southland - Texas-Arlington
SWAC - Mississippi Valley St
Summit - Oral Roberts
Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee
WAC - Nevada
WCC - Saint Mary's

Check out the companion Bubble Watch for a more in-depth look at teams on the NCAA Bubble.

NIT-Ology: Projecting the Field of 32

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 16:44:53 -0500

The latest 2012 NIT-Ology field as things stand after Monday's action. The field below is not who I think deserves to be in, but simply a prediction of what the committee would do as things stand today. NIT-Ology is released following CollegeHoops.net's weekly NCAA Tournament Bracketology update.

For a statistical breakdown of NCAA Bubble teams, check out the weekly Bubble Watch.

NCAA BUBBLE: Last 5 In

Notre Dame

Cincinnati

Washington

BYU

NC State (complete NCAA projection)

ONE

Ole Miss

Colorado State

Arkansas

Texas

TWO

Stanford

Marshall

Wyoming

UMASS

THREE

Pittsburgh

Arizona

UCF

VCU

FOUR

La Salle

Saint Joseph's

Maryland

Oklahoma

FIVE

Ohio

Missouri St

New Mexico St

South Florida

SIX

Villanova

Drexel

Northwestern

Virginia Tech

SEVEN

?

?

?

?

EIGHT

?

?

?

?

First Out: Illinois State, Oregon St, South Dakota St, Denver

Bubble Watch: Dogfight in the A10

Shawn Siegel — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 16:22:20 -0500

Based on CollegeHoops.net's most recent Bracketology projection, here is how the NCAA Tournament Bubble currently stands. CHN will publish Bubble Watch on Tuesday's following the Bracketology update.

This week's notes: Minnesota and NC State join the field of 68 in place of Northwestern and Texas. Northwestern has lost 6 of 8 games and is fading fast. BYU and Stanford still hang onto the bubble despite dropping down the list. Stanford hangs on, mostly because I figure the committee will be biased towards putting 2 Pac-12 teams into the field. BYU hangs on by default, because no other contender stepped up and had a big week. BYU lost a home game to LMU, which is hard to justify, but they now have 3 games in a row against Top 50ish teams, so have a chance to redeem themselves.

Notre Dame enters the picture due to their win over Syracuse, and with the understanding that the committee will overrate power-conference home wins against marquee teams. Belmont, despite some early season buzz, no longer has a place in the bubble discussion. Similarly, Virginia Tech is no longer included in Bubble Watch, but they have more than enough time to win some ACC games and get back on track.

Change	Seed	Team	Conf.	Record	RPI	Sagarin	KenPom	AP
	10	New Mexico	MWC	14-4	59	28	28
	11	Saint Louis	A10	14-4	51	24	44
	11	Southern Miss	CUSA	15-3	15	50	62
	11	Xavier	A10	13-6	43	54	51
	11	Iowa St	B12	14-5	53	45	44
	12	Memphis	CUSA	13-6	28	26	27
	12	Minnesota	B10	15-5	45	44	45
	12	NC State	ACC	15-5	55	53	54
	13	BYU	WCC	15-5	56	29	31
	13	Stanford	P12	15-5	80	44	49
Bubble
		UCF	CUSA	14-4	57	87	89
		Northwestern	B10	12-7	37	62	64
		Texas	B12	12-7	70	34	24
		Arizona	P12	13-7	72	59	63
		Ole Miss	SEC	13-6	34	97	110
		Oregon	P12	15-5	58	90	102
		Notre Dame	BE	12-8	98	85	82
		Arkansas	SEC	14-5	61	72	81
		Wyoming	MWC	14-3	88	55	43

Dropped Out of Bubble Watch: Virginia Tech

Projected Conference Champs that would be on the Bubble if they lost title:

Change	Seed	Team	Conf.	Record	RPI	Sagarin	KenPom	AP
	12	Marshall	CUSA	12-6	46	63	75
	12	Middle Tennessee	SB	18-2	52	30	30	34
Bubble
	13	Oral Roberts	SUM	18-4	44	56	46
	13	Long Beach St	BW	12-6	40	37	38	37
	13	Davidson	SOU	13-4	48	60	63
	14	Iona	MAAC	15-5	50	58	61	36
	14	Nevada	WAC	14-3	73	95	99

Projected Conference Leaders Out of Bubble Watch: Belmont

We'd love to hear your thoughts in the comments section or on twitter @collegehoopsnet :