Bracketology

Bracketology: Week One!

Shawn Siegel — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 11:12:21 -0500

The weekly Bracketology field is based on how the tourney looks "as of this moment." (which for week one is only a prediction.) My weekly Bracketology updates are usually released Monday mornings. In late February into March, I release Bracketology updates daily as the season approaches crunch time.

Why should you care what I have to say? Did you know in 2007 & 2008, I was considered to have one of the Top 2 or 3 brackets amongst 53 national experts including Joe Lunardi, Gary Parrish and the like. (Admittedly my 2009 final bracket was rather weak.. not sure what happened.)

Movement:

This is the first update of the season.. hence no changes. Normally, arrows indicate movement by seed. Two arrows equals a change of two seeds, etc..

ONE

Kansas**

TWO

THREE

Butler**

FOUR

Dayton**

FIVE

SIX

SEVEN

EIGHT

Siena**

NINE

UCLA

Vanderbilt

Memphis**

Gonzaga**

TEN

ELEVEN

TWELVE

Nevada**

Old Dominion**

Syracuse

Florida

THIRTEEN

Western Kentucky**

Arizona State

Akron**

Cornell**

FOURTEEN

Charleston**

Long Beach St**

Weber State**

Jacksonville**

FIFTEEN

Sam Houston St**

Oakland**

Boston University**

Radford**

SIXTEEN + ONE

Mount St. Mary's**

Holy Cross**

South Carolina St**

Murray State** / Jackson State**

** = Automatic Bid

Bold = Locked Up Tournament Bid (only relevant in March)

League Leaders/Winners (31)

- Leaders throughout the season are merely the first place team in the standings as of the update, and not projected winners. Ties are given to the higher RPI team.

America East - Boston U.

A-10 - Dayton

ACC - North Carolina

Atlantic Sun - Jacksonville

Big 12 - Kansas

Big East - Villanova

Big Sky - Weber State

Big South - Radford

Big Ten - Michigan State

Big West - Long Beach St

CAA - Old Dominion

Conference USA - Memphis

Horizon - Butler

Ivy - Cornell

MAAC - Siena

MAC - Akron

MEAC - South Carolina St

MVC - Creighton

MWC - BYU

Northeast - Mount St. Mary's

Ohio Valley - Murray State

Pac-10 - Washington

Patriot - Holy Cross

SEC - Kentucky

Southern - Charleston

Southland - Sam Houston State

SWAC - Jackon State

Summit - Oakland

Sun Belt - Western Kentucky

WAC - Nevada

WCC - Gonzaga

*** = Locked Up Automatic Bid

Last In: Arizona St, Florida, Syracuse, Wisconsin

Last Out: Utah State, Pittsburgh, Florida State, Missouri

Further Four: Boston College, Arizona, Penn State, La Salle

Dropped Out In Latest Update (at-large): NONE

Poll: Who Will Win the 2010 National Championship?

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 11:30:41 -0500

Nether Regions: Breaking Down the East, West, South, and Midwest

Kevin McNeill — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 16:59:13 -0400

Everything you need to know about the Tournament's four different regions:

Most loaded region - Midwest

You can't ask for much more out of a single region. The Midwest boasts the #1 overall seed, and the hottest team in the country in Louisville. The Cardinals were the only school from the Big 6 to win both the regular season and conference tournament titles, and they did it in the best conference out of any of them.

Overall the region boasts the regular season champion of three of the Big 6 conferences - Louisville, Kansas, and Michigan State, with Pac-10 Tournament winner USC and Mountain West Tournament champion Utah thrown in for good measure. There's also West Virginia sitting there as the 6 seed, a very dangerous team that waxed arch-rival Pittsburgh in the Big East Tournament last week before falling to Syracuse in overtime.

For the feel-good story seekers, the Midwest gives you North Dakota State, who in their first year in Division I had won both the regular season and Summit tournament championship to make the NCAA Tournament. For their effort, they get to play the defending national champions in the first round.

But that doesn't mean the Metrodome will be completely covered in Jayhawk blue. Almost 2,000 fans turned out at Bison Sports Arena to watch the Selection Sunday show on CBS to see where their beloved team will end up. Most of them, and many more, will be taking the three hour drive down from Fargo to cheer them on.

Easiest region for a top seed - South

Despite being the #3 overall seed, North Carolina is the overwhelming favorite to win the national championship according to odds-makers, fans and sportscasters alike. Yet they were placed in arguably the weakest region, giving them the easiest path to Detroit of any other team.

#2 Oklahoma has dropped four of their last six games, although granted the first two were without Blake Griffin. # 3 Syracuse, as everyone knows by now, played 195 minutes of basketball in four days in the Big East Tournament last week, with a roster that only goes seven deep. # 4 Gonzaga has played a very tough schedule, but hasn't beaten a team currently ranked in the Top 25 all year.

To top it all off, the Tar Heels play their first two games (assuming they can squeak by Radford) in Greensboro.

But before you gleefully pencil in UNC on your bracket, keep in mind that this is the NCAA Tournament, where nothing ever happens the way it is supposed to. The easiest road to the Final Four in recent history came in 1998, when Paul Pierce and #1 Kansas were playing in the weak Midwest region and seemingly could sleepwalk to the Final Four, before losing to Rhode Island in the second round and destroying about 98% of the country's brackets. Could history repeat itself for Roy Williams? You never know.

Region with the most questions - West

Can # 1 UConn still make it to Detroit without Jerome Dyson? Dyson has been out since mid-February with a knee injury, and was at the time their second leading scorer and indisputably one of their best defenders. While the Huskies are still very, very good, they are simply not as dominant as when Dyson was on the court.

Speaking of Huskies, can Washington take advantage of playing out west? The Pac-10 regular season champs really caught a break when the NCAA Selection Committee sent them to Portland for the first two rounds, just a couple hours' drive from their campus in Seattle. Bubble-bursting SEC champ Mississippi State will have their hands full in what should be a purple-clad arena.

Will the chip-on-the-shoulder routine help Memphis? The Tigers have the best record in college basketball, have won 25 straight games, and just won their fourth straight conference championship in blowout fashion. Yet they were sent out west as a # 2 seed.

The seed was more an indictment of Conference USA - a one-bid conference - than Memphis itself, but don't tell that to Coach Calipari. He has made no secret about how he intends to motivate his team for the Tournament, stating after their drubbing of Tulsa, "If they (the NCAA Selection Committee) think we're a 2 seed, we'll try to prove them wrong."

How far can Marquette go without Dominic James? The Golden Eagles have dropped five of their last six since James broke a bone in his foot a month ago against UConn, and hardly anyone expects them to do anything but take an early exit from the NCAA Tournament - especially considering that they were shipped out to Boise to play 30-4 Utah State. But even though James' playing career at Marquette is over, the team's emotional leader will still be on the bench. He will still be a Golden Eagle so long as Marquette advances, and his teammates will be playing their guts out for him. It may not show up in the stat sheet, but that is a significant factor.

Déjà vu anyone? Last year in the West region the 8-9 matchup was #9 Texas A&M vs. # 8 BYU, won by the Aggies. This year? Same exact matchup in the same region.

Region with the most potentially intriguing matchups - East

In all likelihood, there won't be a shortage of storylines for the East regional final in Boston.

You could have a Duke-Florida State rematch from the ACC title game a week ago. There could be a very interesting meeting between Ben Howland's UCLA and the team he left behind in Pittsburgh. There could be a Pitt-Villanova rematch from Jan 28th, a game won by the Wildcats. There could be a rematch of Duke-Xavier from December, a game the Blue Devils won going away. Should Duke and Pitt meet in Boston, it would be a rematch from a classic game at Madison Square Garden early last season where the Panthers won an absolute grudge-match in overtime.

Another team to watch is UCLA. If the Bruins want to make it four straight Final Fours, the NCAA Selection Committee seemed hell-bent on making them earn it. They play their first game against a VCU squad that just tore through the Colonial Athletic Association Tournament, behind the leadership of one of the most underrated guards in the country in Eric Maynor. Get by them, no big deal, the Bruins just might have to beat Villanova - who has notched wins over Pitt, Syracuse and Marquette (before the injury to Dominic James) - in Philadelphia. Survive that, and they could be facing ACC Tournament champ Duke 3,000 miles from home in Boston. Piece of cake.

NCAA Tournament: Midwest Region Odds/Prediction

Evan Dorey — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 11:32:26 -0400

As we did for the conference tournaments, here are log5 odds for the NCAA tournament, which take into account team’s overall offensive & defensive efficiency. The efficiency numbers are Ken Pomeroy’s, so I don’t claim credit for them, and while the basic procedure isn’t my own, the actual tables are. Semi-home games are considered in all cases, though there aren’t a whole lot of these.

Midwest Region Odds

Seed	Team	R2	S16	E8	F4	Final	Champion
1	Louisville	96.70%	75.11%	55.51%	34.68%	19.14%	10.75%
2	Michigan St.	91.13%	62.54%	29.62%	14.35%	7.14%	3.62%
3	Kansas	80.59%	39.26%	22.87%	11.37%	4.93%	2.18%
4	Wake Forest	75.08%	45.18%	18.07%	7.88%	2.88%	1.08%
5	Utah	57.67%	28.57%	9.73%	3.60%	1.09%	0.34%
6	West Virginia	87.26%	53.98%	34.64%	19.29%	9.56%	4.83%
7	Boston College	34.54%	9.48%	2.08%	0.49%	0.09%	0.02%
8	Ohio St.	69.97%	19.85%	8.52%	2.63%	0.66%	0.17%
9	Siena	30.03%	4.66%	1.45%	0.31%	0.05%	0.01%
10	Southern California	65.46%	26.36%	8.98%	3.19%	0.93%	0.28%
11	Dayton	12.74%	2.72%	0.61%	0.11%	0.01%	0.00%
12	Arizona	42.33%	17.90%	5.03%	1.53%	0.37%	0.09%
13	Cleveland St.	24.92%	8.36%	1.66%	0.35%	0.06%	0.01%
14	North Dakota St.	19.41%	4.04%	1.07%	0.22%	0.04%	0.01%
15	Robert Morris	8.87%	1.62%	0.14%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%
16	Morehead St.	3.30%	0.38%	0.04%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Thoughts:

The numbers are starkly clear; Louisville is in a different class from the rest of the Midwest. The efficiency ratings continue to love West Virginia, and this could finally be the time when the Mountaineers come through to back that up. Michigan St. will face a major challenge from whoever comes out of Kansas’ sub-regional, while there’s a decent chance neither Wake nor Utah will even make it to a face-off against the Cardinals.

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NCAA Tournament: South Regions Odds/Prediction

Evan Dorey — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 11:30:47 -0400

South Region Odds

Seed	Team	R2	S16	E8	F4	Final	Champion
1	North Carolina	97.76%	84.40%	49.72%	33.49%	20.04%	11.20%
2	Oklahoma	91.81%	53.63%	26.50%	9.73%	4.13%	1.58%
3	Syracuse	85.73%	46.34%	25.98%	10.14%	4.55%	1.85%
4	Gonzaga	91.39%	68.62%	36.84%	24.35%	14.24%	7.76%
5	Illinois	83.09%	27.39%	9.03%	3.97%	1.46%	0.48%
6	Arizona St.	73.52%	42.07%	24.51%	10.09%	4.74%	2.03%
7	Clemson	68.23%	34.68%	16.21%	5.56%	2.22%	0.79%
8	Louisiana St.	49.39%	7.49%	1.92%	0.60%	0.15%	0.03%
9	Butler	50.61%	7.83%	2.04%	0.65%	0.17%	0.04%
10	Michigan	31.77%	10.73%	3.18%	0.64%	0.19%	0.05%
11	Temple	26.48%	9.08%	3.09%	0.64%	0.16%	0.04%
12	Western Kentucky	16.91%	1.83%	0.19%	0.03%	0.00%	0.00%
13	Akron	8.61%	2.15%	0.25%	0.04%	0.01%	0.00%
14	Stephen F. Austin	14.27%	2.51%	0.46%	0.05%	0.01%	0.00%
15	Morgan St.	8.19%	0.96%	0.08%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
16	Radford	2.24%	0.28%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Thoughts:

The South is interesting because of the potential Gonzaga-North Carolina Sweet Sixteen matchup, featuring the region's top two teams. Oklahoma is the weakest two seed in the field, and don’t be surprised if a good Arizona St. team manages to put up a strong showing.

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NCAA Tournament: East Region Odds/Prediction

Evan Dorey — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 11:29:49 -0400

East Region Odds

Seed	Team	R2	S16	E8	F4	Final	Champion
1	Pittsburgh	93.87%	72.04%	53.76%	31.77%	17.75%	9.43%
2	Duke	96.91%	78.00%	46.24%	26.81%	13.97%	6.89%
3	Villanova	91.69%	50.09%	21.01%	9.40%	3.62%	1.30%
4	Xavier	86.63%	49.12%	17.97%	6.66%	2.27%	0.72%
5	Florida St.	46.96%	22.14%	6.59%	1.97%	0.54%	0.13%
6	UCLA	81.27%	44.46%	24.26%	13.85%	7.08%	3.42%
7	Texas	57.74%	13.65%	4.96%	1.78%	0.53%	0.15%
8	Oklahoma St.	49.99%	13.43%	6.38%	1.99%	0.57%	0.15%
9	Tennessee	50.01%	13.44%	6.39%	2.00%	0.57%	0.15%
10	Minnesota	42.26%	7.98%	2.37%	0.70%	0.17%	0.04%
11	VCU	18.73%	4.49%	1.03%	0.26%	0.05%	0.01%
12	Wisconsin	53.04%	26.49%	8.52%	2.76%	0.82%	0.22%
13	Portland St.	13.37%	2.25%	0.21%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%
14	American	8.31%	0.96%	0.10%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%
15	Binghamton	3.09%	0.37%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
16	East Tennessee St.	6.13%	1.09%	0.18%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%

Thoughts:

Pitt and Duke are the clear favorites to get through the East region, though if it were to come down to those two you’d probably feel Pitt had a better advantage than the odds would indicate. Despite not getting much attention, UCLA looks like a team that can cause a lot of trouble, though it will have a difficult time winning in Philadelphia against Nova. Wisconsin may be the region’s most interesting team; it’s nearly dead even in odds with Florida St., and a 12 over a 5 is always an attractive pick. Even more, should Wisconsin get by Florida St, it wouldn't be statistically shocking to see them topple Xavier.

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NCAA Tournament: West Region Odds/Prediction

Evan Dorey — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 11:28:25 -0400

West Region Odds

Seed	Team	R2	S16	E8	F4	Final	Champion
1	Connecticut	97.88%	70.32%	47.36%	25.82%	15.14%	8.56%
2	Memphis	94.32%	77.70%	52.76%	33.24%	20.89%	12.72%
3	Missouri	90.34%	60.50%	27.68%	14.14%	7.20%	3.51%
4	Washington	76.22%	41.80%	17.13%	6.81%	2.97%	1.23%
5	Purdue	82.50%	47.09%	19.70%	7.99%	3.55%	1.50%
6	Marquette	71.64%	30.69%	10.89%	4.33%	1.72%	0.64%
7	California	62.16%	14.70%	5.32%	1.66%	0.52%	0.15%
8	Brigham Young	71.27%	24.37%	12.37%	4.69%	1.95%	0.77%
9	Texas A&M	28.73%	5.18%	1.56%	0.32%	0.07%	0.02%
10	Maryland	37.84%	6.32%	1.65%	0.36%	0.08%	0.02%
11	Utah St.	28.36%	6.96%	1.35%	0.29%	0.06%	0.01%
12	Northern Iowa	17.50%	4.13%	0.58%	0.08%	0.01%	0.00%
13	Mississippi St.	23.78%	6.98%	1.30%	0.24%	0.05%	0.01%
14	Cornell	9.66%	1.85%	0.19%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%
15	Cal St. Northridge	5.68%	1.28%	0.16%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%
16	Chattanooga	2.12%	0.12%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Thoughts:

The two major national title contenders in the West, UCONN & Memphis should be expected to meet in the Elite Eight, but there’s only a 25% chance both will make it, as some serious challengers lie in wait. The efficiency numbers like BYU, and suggest they could give the Huskies a little scare. But the real threat to a 1-2 meeting is Missouri, which has a fairly weak section and a lot of ability.

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How Did I Do? Actual Tournament Field vs Editor's Late Summer Projection

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 21:59:46 -0400

Back in early September (the 9th), I took an early stab at projecting the 2009 Field of 65. With almost two months still to go before the season, I think I did a surprisingly solid job. Sure I had some misses, but only a few glaring errors. I ended up getting 42 of the 65 teams correct.. but most of the misses were right there in the Bubble hunt or competitive in their conference tournaments.

The glaring errors are: Winthrop in the Big South (the Eagles had a brutal season, though performed better at the end). Southern Illinois in the MVC was a major flop. Ole Miss in the SEC was weak, though the injury to Chris Warren could have changed their luck substantially.

Outside of those three, most of my misses ended up having solid seasons. Creighton, St. Mary's, and UNLV were all just as good as bubble teams like Maryland and Arizona that made the Tourney. With the exception of Ole Miss, all of my other power conference misses are in the NIT. In the leagues I thought would only get one bid, I did the worst job in the Horizon, as I never saw Butler having this good a season. Other misses though like Davidson (who wouldn't have picked that), Vermont (they won the AE regular season title), Pacific (they made the Big West final), and Nevada (WAC finalists) weren't half bad.

Multi-Bid Leagues (45)
Big East - UCONN - ~~(Georgetown,~~ Louisville, Marquette, ~~Notre Dame~~, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia)
ACC - UNC - (Clemson, Duke, ~~Miami, Virginia Tech,~~ Wake Forest) Boston College, Florida St, Maryland
Pac-10 - UCLA - (Arizona, Arizona State, USC, Washington) California
Big 12 - Kansas - (~~Baylor~~, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M) Oklahoma St
Big Ten - Purdue - (Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin) Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota

SEC - ~~Florida (Kentucky, Mississippi,~~ Tennessee) LSU, Mississippi St

A-10 - Xavier - (Dayton, Temple)
Mountain West - ~~UNLV~~ - (BYU) Utah

Missouri Valley - ~~Creighton - (Southern Illinois)~~ Northern Iowa
Conference USA - Memphis - ~~(UAB)~~
WCC - Gonzaga - ~~(Saint Mary's)~~

One-Bid Leagues (20 Projected)
~~America East - Vermont~~ Binghamton
~~Atlantic Sun - Belmont~~ Jacksonville
Big Sky - Portland State
~~Big South - Winthrop~~ Radford
~~Big West - Pacific~~ Northridge
CAA - VCU
~~Horizon - Wright State~~ Butler, Cleveland St
Ivy - Cornell
MAAC - Siena
~~MAC - Kent State~~ Akron
MEAC - Morgan State
Northeast - Robert Morris
~~Ohio Valley - Murray State~~ Morehad State
Patriot - American
~~Southern - Davidson~~ Chattanooga
Southland - Stephen F Austin
SWAC - Alabama State
Summit - North Dakota State
~~Sun Belt - MTSU~~ WKU

WAC - Nevada Utah St

It's always fun projecting future Tournament fields, and I look forward to my first 2010 Projection.. which will come out the day after this year's Championship game.

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NCAA Tournament Surprises & Busts: Writers' Picks

CHN — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 14:15:25 -0400

Having trouble filling out your bracket? CHN writers share their Tourney predictions to help you out.

Cinderella: Teams that are 11 seeds or below.

Bust: 6 seeds or better that have the best shot of bouncing out early.

Semi-Surprise: The writer's highest seeded team they have projected to make the Elite Eight.

Breakout Star: Little known players that could help lead their teams to surprising March success.

	Jeff Borzello	Jason Brubaker	Dan Daitchman
Cinderella	VCU (11)	WKU (12)	VCU (11)
Bust	Syracuse	Illinois	Kansas
Semi-Surprise	Arizona St (6)	Kansas (3)	Arizona St (6)
Breakout Star	DeMarre Carroll Missouri	Daniel Hackett USC	Kenny Hasbrouck Siena

	Jeff Fox	Raphielle Johnson	Kevin McNeill
Cinderella	Utah St (11)	Arizona (12)	VCU (11)
Bust	Illinois	Kansas	Michigan St
Semi-Surprise	Syracuse (3)	West Virginia (6)	Florida St (5)
Breakout Star	Gary Wilkinson Utah St	Ben Woodside NDSU	Eric Maynor VCU

	Shawn Siegel	Joel Welser	Joey Whelan
Cinderella	Utah St (11)	Dayton (11)	VCU (11)
Bust	Kansas	Kansas	Michigan St
Semi-Surprise	Wake Forest	Villanova (3)	Florida St (5)
Breakout Star	Gary Wilkinson Utah St	Chris Wright Dayton	Larry Sanders VCU

Also: Writers' Predictions: Final Four

Poll: Who Was the Biggest Tournament Snub?

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 06:51:42 -0400