Rankings & Polls

College Basketball: Unbalanced Scheduling Leads to Unfair Respect

Shawn Siegel — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 18:09:05 -0500

Unlike the NBA, college basketball schedules are not equitable. In non-conference play, wealthy schools can host as many home games as they'd like, while other schools can go on the road to raise cash. Schools can choose to play cupcakes or challenge themselves in stacked pre-season tournaments. Even in conference play, some leagues have unbalanced scheduling that can alter the final standings substantially. (Georgetown will never get a chance to avenge last night's overtime loss to Syracuse.)

The reality is that the top teams play mostly meaningless games. The real action (in fact, the only action) happens on the road. The Top 40 teams listed below have only won 36% of their road/neutral games against Top 50 teams, a 58-103 record. In fact, over half of all the losses accumulated by Top 40 team came in these few games. They went 674-93 in other games.

Syracuse & Kentucky, the top 2 teams in the AP Poll, haven't won a single game against a Top 50 team away from home. Perhaps what makes those 2 schools seem so dominant, is not that they are better, but because they are simply untested. Most schools fatten up on wins against teams ranked below 50th in the RPI and against away teams below 100th in the RPI. The Top 40 schools are a whopping 534-40 in these games, winning at a 93% clip.

It is easier to beat a Top 50 team at home as it is to beat a team ranked 51st-100th on the road. The Top 40 teams win 75% of their games against Top 50 teams, and 69% against 51-100 away from home.

Come NCAA Tournament time though, teams don't have the chance to feast on home wins. Only in the 1vs16 or 2vs15 games, can teams play against teams outside the Top 100. The Selection Committee probably does not focus enough on road vs home success in their bracketology decisions, which could lead to some teams being overseeded or underseeded. But you shouldn't fall into that trap. When the Tournament comes around, be sure to check out how teams have fared against quality teams on road or neutral courts. Ohio St & Florida have a whopping 2 combined wins against Top 100 teams away from home in 8 tries. Come tournament time, these numbers will certainly come into play. Perhaps we've found two teams primed for early round upsets?

			R/N	R/N	Home
RPI	Team	Overall	Top 50	51-100	Top 50	Others
1	Syracuse	24-1	0-1	3-0	5-0	16-0
2	Duke	20-4	3-2	3-0	3-2	11-0
3	Kentucky	24-1	0-1	1-0	5-0	18-0
4	Kansas	19-5	2-4	2-0	5-0	10-1
5	Ohio St	21-3	1-3	0-0	5-0	15-0
6	Baylor	20-3	6-1	1-0	1-2	13-0
7	Michigan St	18-5	2-5	0-0	4-0	12-0
8	UNC	20-4	1-3	2-0	3-1	13-0
9	Missouri	22-2	5-1	3-0	1-0	13-1
10	Southern Miss	18-4	1-2	2-1	1-0	14-1
11	UNLV	19-4	2-3	0-1	3-0	14-0
12	Marquette	20-5	1-3	3-1	2-1	14-0
13	Georgetown	17-5	3-3	0-1	3-0	10-1
14	Florida	19-5	0-3	1-0	3-0	15-2
15	Michigan	17-7	1-5	1-1	6-0	9-1
16	Indiana	18-6	1-4	2-0	3-1	12-1
17	Memphis	17-7	1-5	0-1	1-1	15-0
18	Wichita St	20-4	0-2	3-0	1-1	16-1
19	Temple	18-5	3-0	0-2	0-0	15-3
20	San Diego St	18-3	1-2	2-0	3-1	12-0
21	Creighton	21-4	2-0	1-2	1-0	17-2
22	St. Mary's	20-2	1-1	1-1	2-0	16-0
23	Louisville	19-5	1-2	1-0	4-2	13-1
24	UCONN	15-8	2-3	1-1	3-1	8-3
25	Gonzaga	18-4	2-3	1-0	2-1	13-0
26	Colorado St	14-7	0-3	0-3	1-1	13-0
27	Vanderbilt	17-7	2-2	1-1	1-1	13-3
28	Saint Louis	18-5	0-1	4-2	0-1	14-1
29	Wisconsin	18-6	2-2	1-0	3-3	12-1
30	Alabama	16-7	1-3	2-1	0-2	13-1
31	Florida St	16-7	1-4	2-0	2-0	11-3
32	Seton Hall	16-8	1-4	3-2	2-2	10-0
33	West Virginia	16-9	1-5	2-0	3-1	10-3
34	Mississippi St	18-5	1-2	1-2	2-0	14-1
35	Long Beach St	15-6	0-5	2-0	0-0	13-1
36	Miami	14-7	1-3	0-2	0-1	13-1
37	Northwestern	14-8	2-5	1-0	1-2	10-1
38	Murray St	20-0	2-0	0-0	0-0	18-0
39	Harvard	19-2	1-1	1-0	0-0	17-1
40	MTSU	20-4	0-1	1-1	0-0	19-3
			58-103	55-25	85-28	534-40
	Winning % =		0.36	0.69	0.75	0.93

I'll update these numbers occasionally as Selection Sunday rolls around. Post comments below or send a note to @collegehoopsnet on twitter.

Consensus Ranking: KenPom, RPI, Sagarin

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 14:32:54 -0500

Consensus Ranking

Nothing riles up fans more than thinking their team is under-rated, under-respected, and under-ranked in the national polls. As the voice behind CollegeHoops.net's Top 50 Ranking, I'm well aware of how angry fans get when they feel slighted. No doubt, I occasionally slip up, and no doubt the dozens of voters in the AP poll slip up even more often.

With the advent of computer rankings & metrics, we have many tools that attempt to overcome historical biases to rank teams fairly. Taking a consensus average of these rankings, we get a good sense of the lay of the land and can see where the human voters differ with the computers. More importantly, we can see whether there is a pattern to the human biases and whether certain teams are consistently mis-valued compared to their peers.

Throughout the season, I'll be updating the Consensus Ranking and commenting on notable trends.

What Is It?

72 teams are ranked, consisting of A) any team with AP votes, B) any team in the RPI Top 50, C) any team in CHN Top 50, and D) any team previously included. The teams are ranked by an average of their RPI, Sagarin, and KenPom ratings. At the right of the chart is the team's current AP ranking and their consensus ranking in the last two updates.

Below the ranking, you'll find a list of the most overrated and underrated teams, as well as teams that moved the most since the last update.

This Week's Notes: February 6th

- Ohio St takes over the top spot in the Consensus Ranking thanks to a hard-fought loss by Kansas.

- Saint Louis moves into the Top 20 for the first time at 19th. They've consistently been moving up the Consensus Ranking, although the AP voters haven't noticed. The Bills did not receive a single vote this week.

- While SLU is getting no love, Notre Dame is getting a lot of respect by the voters. The Irish have no doubt been a surprise team of late, but the computers suggest that this run is a bit flukey. The Irish are 50th in the ranking.

- The computers are not on Murray St's bandwagon either. Despite remaining unbeaten, the Racers are dropping down the ranking each week thanks to their weak opponents. Murray has only played 3 Top 100 RPI teams all season. Michigan St has played 12 for comparison.

- Miami, Notre Dame, Akron, and Washington all enter the tracking this week. Akron has snuck up on people, falling in the Top 60 in each ranking. Miami, of course, shot up thanks to beating Duke on the road.

- Despite being .500 in Big Ten play, the computers still like Indiana more than their 23rd position in the AP Poll. The Computers are content that losing games at the likes of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio St is no big deal. The Hoosiers play 5 of their last 7 games at home, and have a good chance to regain the voters respect.

Rank	Team	RPI	KenPom	Sagarin	Avg	Last	2 Weeks	AP
1	Ohio St	4	1	1	2.0	2	2	3
2t	Syracuse	1	6	3	3.3	3	1	2
2t	Kentucky	6	2	2	3.3	4	4	1
4	Michigan St	3	5	6	4.7	5	6	11
5	Kansas	9	3	4	5.3	1	7	7
6t	Baylor	2	11	9	7.3	6	3	6
6t	UNC	7	8	7	7.3	7	11	5
8	Missouri	11	7	5	7.7	8	8	4
9	Duke	5	16	11	10.7	9	5	10
10	Indiana	18	9	10	12.3	13	9	23
11	Georgetown	13	13	13	13.0	12	10	12
12	Florida	14	14	12	13.3	16	30	8
13t	UNLV	10	18	14	14.0	10	12	14
13t	Wisconsin	30	4	8	14.0	11	18	21
15	Marquette	12	22	16	16.7	14	15	18
16	Florida St	17	17	20	18.0	18	38	15
17	Creighton	15	24	17	18.7	17	22	17
18	Wichita St	27	15	15	19.0	15	21	31
19	Saint Louis	33	12	19	21.3	21	34
20	St. Mary's	23	26	21	23.3	23	16	16
21	New Mexico	44	10	18	24.0	28	32	33
22	Michigan	16	28	29	24.3	29	31	22
23	Memphis	20	27	27	24.7	25	26
24	Louisville	29	29	24	27.3	36	37	24
25	Virginia	42	19	22	27.7	27	25	19
26	Alabama	34	25	25	28.0	26	13
27t	Gonzaga	24	35	30	29.7	20	14	30
27t	West Virginia	26	32	31	29.7	24	17
29	UCONN	22	34	34	30.0	30	20
30	Southern Miss	8	44	39	30.3	38	39	28
31	Vanderbilt	28	31	33	30.7	31	36	35t
32t	Kansas St	49	23	23	31.7	19	23	34
32t	California	48	21	26	31.7	22	24
34	Temple	21	39	36	32.0	32	40	29
35t	BYU	41	33	32	35.3	34	28	38t
35t	Iowa St	35	36	35	35.3	48	51	27
37t	Harvard	40	37	37	38.0	41	41	25
37t	Texas	66	20	28	38.0	42	42
39	Long Beach St	36	48	43	42.3	37	55	32
40	MTSU	45	42	41	42.7	40	50
41	San Diego St	19	63	47	43.0	33	49	13
42	Illinois	46	41	44	43.7	43	27
43	Minnesota	50	45	46	47.0	45	43
44t	Purdue	64	40	38	47.3	47	33
44t	Arizona	62	38	42	47.3	54	58
46	Miami	38	53	53	48.0	x	x	38t
47	Murray St	39	61	45	48.3	35	29	9
48	Mississippi St	32	69	49	50.0	44	46	20
49	Seton Hall	31	66	55	50.7	39	19
50	Notre Dame	56	46	52	51.3	x	x	26
51	Iona	57	50	48	51.7	51	44	35t
52	Cleveland St	61	47	50	52.7	60	66	35t
53	Xavier	53	56	59	56.0	49	47
54	Northwestern	37	68	64	56.3	50	35
55	St. Joseph's	43	65	63	57.0	57	56
56	Akron	54	59	60	57.7	x	x
57	Oral Roberts	47	73	62	60.7	53	52
58	Northern Iowa	51	74	68	64.3	56	48
59	Cincinnati	95	49	51	65.0	58	62
60	Washington	76	64	65	68.3	x	x
61	Arkansas	59	75	73	69.0	61	64
62t	Davidson	67	72	71	70.0	52	57
62t	Stanford	96	60	54	70.0	59	53
64	Marshall	60	76	79	71.7	63	54
65	Colorado St	25	102	91	72.7	65	59
66	Virginia Tech	92	67	69	76.0	55	60
67	Wagner	75	82	77	78.0	68	65
68	Ohio	79	85	74	79.3	62	63
69	Dayton	71	88	81	80.0	46	45
70	Ole Miss	52	104	94	83.3	66	68
71	UCF	63	96	93	84.0	64	67
72	Denver	88	90	87	88.3	67	61

Teams the AP voters overrate vs. the computer ranking:

Murray St +38

Mississippi St +28

San Diego St +28

Notre Dame +24

Cleveland St +17

Iona +16

Harvard +12

Iowa St +8

Miami +8

Virginia +6

Teams the AP voters most underrate vs. the computer ranking:

Teams w/ votes

Indiana -13

Wichita St -13

New Mexico -12

Wisconsin -8

Teams w/ no votes

Saint Louis

Memphis

Alabama

West Virginia

UCONN

Biggest Changes Since Last Week:

Rising

Iowa St +13

Louisville +12

Arizona +10

Cleveland St +8

Southern Miss +8

Falling

Dayton -23

Xavier -14

Kansas St -13

Murray St -12

Seton Hall -10

Biggest Changes In Last Two Weeks:

Rising

Florida St +22

Florida +18

Iowa St +16

Long Beach St +16

Saint Louis +15

Falling

Seton Hall -30

Dayton -24

Northwestern -19

Murray St -18

Illinois -15

What do you think? Post comments below, send a tweet to @collegehoopsnet, or follow facebook.com/collegehoopsnet.

AP Top 25 & Commentary: Florida Overrated?

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 13:32:47 -0500

AP Top 25 Commentary:

The top 6 teams remain the same as last week, and then things get interesting.

Florida makes a big move up to 8th, thanks to losses by Duke, Kansas, and Michigan St (last week's 7-8-9 teams). The Gators best win on a road or neutral court this season is at mediocre Ole Miss, so I'm not quite jumping on the bandwagon. The Gators schedule gets a lot tougher the rest of the way with games at UK, Vandy, Bama, and Arkansas, as well as a home game against UK to close the season.

San Diego St and Saint Mary's move up 4 spots each, while Florida St jumps 6 positions. Florida St surpassed Virginia in the ranking after escaping with a close 3-point home win over the Cavaliers.

At the back of the poll, Vanderbilt not only dropped out of the Top 25, but they only received 2 votes this week. UCONN, who made a similar fall as Vandy last week, no longer received a single vote.

Gaining major momentum this week were Notre Dame, Temple, and Southern Miss, all nearing the Top 25. Last week, those 3 teams received a measly 11 votes between them. There seems to be much less conviction about teams 22 through 25 than previous weeks, so any of those 3 has a chance to jump into the Top 25 next week.

RK TEAM RECORD PTS
1 Kentucky (63) 23-1 1,623
2 Syracuse (2) 23-1 1,553
3 Ohio State 20-3 1,493
4 Missouri 21-2 1,415
5 North Carolina 20-3 1,352
6 Baylor 21-2 1,318
7 Kansas 18-5 1,170
8 Florida 19-4 1,066
9 Murray State 23-0 1,055
10 Duke 19-4 1,037
11 Michigan State 18-5 1,032
12 Georgetown 18-4 919
13 San Diego State 20-3 728
14 UNLV 21-4 702
15 Florida State 16-6 694
16 Saint Mary's 22-2 635
17 Creighton 21-3 600
18 Marquette 19-5 469
19 Virginia 18-4 448
20 Mississippi State 18-5 401
21 Wisconsin 18-6 384
22 Michigan 17-7 253
23 Indiana 18-6 227
24 Louisville 18-5 112
25 Harvard 20-2 105

Others receiving votes:

Notre Dame 83, Iowa State 71, Southern Miss 51, Temple 41, Gonzaga 35, Wichita State 31, Long Beach State 6, New Mexico 5, Kansas State 3, Iona 2, Cleveland State 2, Vanderbilt 2, Brigham Young 1, Miami (FL) 1

Dropped from rankings:

Gonzaga 24, Vanderbilt 25

New This Week:

Louisville 24, Harvard 25

Non-BCS Top 25: Akron On the Rise

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 05 Feb 2012 23:45:06 -0500

The Non-BCS Top 25 is a weekly companion to the popular CHN Top 50 ranking, taking an in-depth look into the underrated universe of teams outside of the big six. The original Non-BCS ranking.

Non-BCS Top 25: February 5th

by Shawn Siegel: Collegehoops.net Editor

	Team	Record	Last	Pre.
1	Murray St	23-0	2	NA
2	UNLV	21-4*	1	7
3	Creighton	21-3*	3	8
4	Saint Mary's	22-2	4	14
5	San Diego St	20-3	6	18
6	Harvard	20-2	7	21
7	Southern Miss	20-3	8	NA
8	Temple	17-5	9	4
9	Gonzaga	18-4*	5	3
10	Wichita St	20-4	10	13
11	New Mexico	19-4	12	5
12	Saint Louis	18-5	15	NA
13	Cleveland St	20-4	13	NA
14	Long Beach St	17-6	16	23
15	MTSU	21-4*	11	NA
16	Memphis	16-7*	14	1
17	Iona	19-5	17	NA
18	BYU	20-6	20	17
19	Davidson	17-5	18	NA
20	Ohio	19-4	21	NA
21	Xavier	15-8*	19	2

Not in CHN Top 50 Ranking

	Team	Record	Last	Pre.
22	Oral Roberts	21-5*	22	NA
23	Akron	16-7	34	NA
24	Colorado St	15-7*	31	NA
25	Marshall	14-9*	25	10

pre. = preseason ranking

last = last ranking (end of 2010-11 season)

* = Losses in the last week

Next 5: UCF (17-6), Weber St (18-4), Bucknell (18-6), VCU (20-5), Wyoming (18-5*)

Further 5: Nevada (19-4*), George Mason (19-6*), South Dakota St (19-6), UMASS (17-6*), La Salle (17-7*)

Dropped Out of Top 25 This Week:

#23 Nevada

#24 Dayton

Dropped Out of Top 25 Since Preseason:

#6 Butler

#9 George Mason

#11 Drexel

#15 Kent St

#22 Utah St

#24 UAB

#25 GW

Agree/Disagree? Post your thoughts below or join us @collegehoopsnet

Check out last week's Non-BCS Top 25 Ranking