Game of the Week

College Hoops Saturday Recap: "Game of the Year" Lives Up to Hype

Raphielle Johnson — Sat, 03 Dec 2011 23:18:36 -0800

One of the most anticipated regular season college basketball games in recent memory came down to wingspan. That was the difference between Kentucky and North Carolina as freshman Anthony Davis got a hand on John Henson's jumper in the final seconds to preserve a 73-72 win at Rupp Arena. UNC would enjoy the largest lead for either team with just under seven minutes left in the first half as they led 34-25, and the two titans would play close throughout. But in spite of the close nature of the score there were areas in which John Calipari's team separated itself and ultimately won the game.

The biggest discrepancy could be found in the paint, where the Wildcats outscored the Tar Heels 36-14 on the afternoon. Unlike North Carolina, who scored 45.8% of their points from beyond the arc, the Wildcats were able to consistently attack the basket and scored 65.8% of their points on two-point baskets. Terrence Jones (14 points, seven rebounds) and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (17 points, 11 rebounds) were two of the key factors in this department, with Kidd-Gilchrist successfully attacking Harrison Barnes off the dribble on multiple occasions.

"At the 12-minute timeout I told them who was doing the scoring for them and it was Teague and [Kidd-] Gilcrhist and the guys taking the ball to the basket so our defense had to get stronger," said UNC head coach Roy Williams. "You look at the stat sheet and (Kentucky) shot 56 percent in the second half but they were a little more patient with it than we were."

North Carolina's biggest weapon on the offensive end was the three-point shot as they made 11 of their 18 attempts. Four players made those 11 shots with Harrison Barnes (14 points) and P.J. Hairston (11) leading the way with four and three made bonus shots respectively. But the Tar Heels didn't attack the rim nearly as much as Kentucky throughout the course of the game, and that posed some issues as the game wore on. Doron Lamb woke up from his slow offensive start to score 12 of his 14 points in the second half to help lead the Wildcats, and he simply began to make better decisions after a slow start was amplified by four turnovers.

"I thought in the second half, I put the ball in his hands saying, 'Let's go down'," said Kentucky head coach John Calipari. "He [had] a couple layups. He had a couple 3s. They were big shots. That one in the corner was a huge shot. He knocked it down."

The question now is what the two teams need to do in order to position themselves for a possible rematch down the line. North Carolina displayed a level of toughness some wanted to see in the aftermath of their loss to UNLV, and the young Wildcats turned the ball over just nine times with Marcus Teague having just one. While there are definitely issues for both to work out, and there will be a large number of challengers for the national title, it isn't unrealistic to think that these two could meet again this season with a lot more on the line.

Other Notable Happenings

1. Marquette picks up a good win at Wisconsin despite personnel "limitations".
Before the game it was learned that head coach Buzz Williams suspended junior point guard Junior Cadougan for a violation of team rules. Add to that the foul trouble that Jae Crowder had to deal with and there would be little chance of Marquette leaving Madison with a win, right? Wrong. Darius Johnson-Odom scored 17 points and Todd Mayo added 14 off the bench as the Golden Eagles beat in-state rival Wisconsin 61-54.

How did Marquette get it done? Defense and toughness, as they limited the Badgers to 32% shooting from the field (35.4% on twos and 26.3% on threes) and controlled the boards to the tune of a 44-32 advantage. The numbers weren't pretty but Marquette won by attacking Wisconsin on both ends of the floor, and there were a number of players who contributed to the effort. Buzz Williams' teams will make opponents fight for every inch of space, and that's a big reason why this group is capable of being a player in the Big East race.

2. Down 19 at one points in the second half, Xavier storms back to beat Purdue.
It was absolutely ugly for Chris Mack's Musketeers in the first half as they turned the ball over 18 times and trailed Purdue 33-22 at the break. Things would get worse before they got better in the second half as the Boilermakers led 55-36 with 10:44 remaining, but Xavier's "never say die" attitude resulted in a comeback for the ages. Tu Holloway made up for a rough 30 minutes with some impressive pressure shot-making and Xavier limited Purdue to 37.9% shooting in the second half on their way to the 66-63 win.

Matt Painter's team wasn't helped by the fact that Robbie Hummel had to deal with leg cramps down the stretch, and his absence in the final seconds was apparent as the team struggled to fine a good look for Ryne Smith. Holloway would lead four Xavier starters in double figures with 21 points, and there may not be another player in the country who can not only take the big shots but embrace the pressure that comes with them. He and Mark Lyons form the kind of backcourt that can lead a team deep into the NCAA Tournament, and their aggressive nature makes them a handful for whoever the Musketeers face.

3. A power outage seemingly robs UCLA of their energy as they fall to Texas at home.
Late in the first half the LA Sports Arena lost power, and with UCLA leading by double figures this was the worst possible time for a team of shaky temperment to have to leave the court. Of course after the break Texas would outscore UCLA 9-4 to end the half, and Rick Barnes' team kept the ball rolling in the second half on their way to a 69-59 win. J'Covan Brown scored 22 points and Myck Kabongo added 13 points and eight assists in leading the comeback, but the soap opera that is UCLA Basketball added another unfortunate chapter on Saturday afternoon.

Reeves Nelson was benched the entire second half due to a missed defensive assignment, and outside of Lazeric Jones (21 points) and Travis Wear (13 points) the Bruins didn't get much done offensively. While Texas shot 54.7% from the field UCLA limped to the finish shooting at a 38.6% clip, and they struggled to keep the Longhorns off of the offensive glass as well (Texas' offensive rebounding percentage: 48.0%). With just one win over a Division I opponent it's extremely difficult to see UCLA contending for a conference championship with the current level of play, regardless of how weak the Pac-12 has been.

4. Charleston's late-game execution ultimately results in a double-overtime victory.
With 21 seconds remaining Bobby Cremins' team trailed visiting Chattanooga 65-61, and the Mocs looked to be a decent bet to pick up their first SoCon win of the season after dropping their league opener. But College of Charleston refused to lie down, and in coming back the Cougars played smart basketball in eventually forcing overtime. Andrew Lawrence scored five of his career-high 25 points in the final ten seconds of regulation to send the game into overtime, and the Cougars would ultimately take advantage of the second chance in winning 87-85 in double overtime.

Anthony Stitt came off the bench to score 20 points, and Trent Wiedeman (15 points, 12 rebounds) and Antwaine Wiggins (14 and 12) both posted double-doubles to back up Lawrence. The result dropped Chattanooga to 0-2 in SoCon play, and that's exactly the start that the Mocs were hoping to avoid given their status as the preseason favorite in the North Division. But execution is critical in games such as this one, and Charleston's ability to play smart basketball without panicking is why they were able to come back.

5. Tulane moves to 9-0 with a win over Georgia Tech, but how good are they?
You never want to discount a team's 9-0 start to a season, especially when that team has struggled as much in recent years as the Tulane Green Wave. But even with Ed Conroy's team off to a 9-0 start with their most recent outing being a 57-52 win over Georgia Tech, there remain questions about Tulane due to a strength of schedule that ranks 342nd nationally. Ricky Tarrant picked up the slack for leading scorers Kendall Timmons and Josh Davis with 24 points on Saturday, and on the season four players are averaging double figures in scoring.

Tulane shot just 31% from the field against the Yellow Jackets but won because of a +12 differential in points from the foul line along with 8-for-16 shooting from beyond the arc. Tulane likely won't overwhelm teams offensively once they get into Conference USA play but this is an improved basketball team. Just beware reading too much into the record, as the Green Wave likely won't be tested again until they visit Syracuse on the 22nd. So the answer to the question of how good Tulane is: we don't have enough information right now.

Quick Hitters

1. The development of big man Meyers Leonard has been a sight to behold in Champaign, and despite foul trouble he put up 21 points and six rebounds in Illinois' 82-75 win over Gonzaga. Leonard has added a physical dimension inside that Bruce Weber hasn't had for a couple years, and this could end up being one of his best teams as a result.

2. At some point in his career B.J. Young will be an All-SEC player at Arkansas. The freshman scored 28 points in 27 minutes off the bench, but it wasn't enough to lead the Razorbacks to a win at Connecticut as they fell 75-62. Another encouraging development for the Hogs: 27 offensive rebounds despite losing Marshawn Powell for the season with a knee injury last week.

3. Valparaiso won a thriller in their Horizon League opener as they beat Butler 77-71 in overtime at Hinkle Fieldhouse. Richie Edwards led five players in double figures with 18 points off the bench, and the Crusaders were solid enough defensively to limit the Bulldogs to 34.3% shooting from the field.

4. Mississippi State outscored West Virginia 23-10 over the final 8:02 in beating the Mountaineers 75-62 in Starkville. Arnett Moultrie led the way with 21 points and 13 rebounds and Dee Bost chipped in with 17 points, seven assists, five rebounds and five steals.

5. It was quite obvious how much Rutgers needed big man Gilvydas Biruta on the floor, as his foul trouble in the second half coincided with the Scarlet Knights' struggles in a 55-50 loss to LSU. Mike Rice's team scored just two points after Biruta fouled out with 4:49 remaining, and they had a hard time controlling LSU defensively when he wasn't in as well.

Five Notable Performances

1. F Greg Magnano (Yale)
22 points, 15 rebounds and three blocks in the Bulldogs' 68-52 win over Vermont.

2. G Kevin Giltner (Wofford)
28 points, 10 rebounds and three assists in the Terriers' 83-63 win over The Citadel.

3. G Taylor Braun (North Dakota State)
30 points (9-11 FG), eight rebounds and three assists in the Bison's 84-79 win at IUPUI.

4. G C.J. McCollum (Lehigh)
31 points, five rebounds, two assists and two steals in the Mountain Hawks' 81-79 overtime loss at Cornell.

5. F Noah Hartsock (BYU)
23 points, 12 rebounds, four blocks and two assists in the Cougars' 79-65 win over Oregon.

Kentucky/Connecticut Preview: Your Commentary

Raphielle Johnson — Sat, 02 Apr 2011 00:43:54 -0700

(4) Kentucky vs. (3) Connecticut 8:49 PM (CBS)

How they got here
Kentucky (East Region champions)
W 59-57 over (13) Princeton
W 71-63 over (5) West Virginia
W 62-60 over (1) Ohio State
W 76-69 over (2) North Carolina

Connecticut (West Region champions)
W 81-52 over (14) Bucknell
W 69-58 over (6) Cincinnati
W 74-67 over (2) San Diego State
W 65-63 over (5) Arizona

The champions of the SEC and Big East tournaments meet in the second semifinal, with Kentucky looking to extend their 10-game win streak while UConn has won nine straight. Yes the two teams met in the title game of the Maui Invitational (an 84-67 UConn win on November 24th), but that game really doesn't exist when it comes to figuring out what may happen on Saturday night. The two teams are that different. John Calipari's received increased production and leadership from his upperclassmen, and the youngsters have stepped up to aid UConn head coach Jim Calhoun and star guard Kemba Walker.

The Huskies' run, winning nine games in 19 days, has been an unprecedented one made possible not just by the excellence of Walker but also the play of Jeremy Lamb. The freshman more than a few overlooked back in October has blossomed over the last month, averaging 18.3 points per game in the NCAA Tournament. Lamb's scored in double figures in each of the last nine games, and late in the win over Arizona it was he the Huskies ran off of baseline picks instead of Walker for a pair of key baskets. Classmate Shabazz Napier (8.0 ppg, 3.0 apg) offers Walker the chance to rest on the offensive end by playing off the ball, and Napier can knock down shots as well.

Up front Alex Oriakhi and Roscoe Smith are two of the players UConn will call on Saturday night, with the former leading the team in rebounding on the season. Oriakhi's grabbed double-digit rebounds in the first two NCAA Tournament games and will need to be a factor on the glass if UConn is to win on Saturday. Oriakhi also averages just under 10 points per game, and he'll need to finish inside while dealing with Josh Harrellson and Terrence Jones. Smith allows UConn to play small with him at the four in spurts when Tyler Olander and Charles Okwandu don't enjoy beneficial matchups.

As for the Wildcats, they essentially go six deep with Eloy Vargas being the seventh who could see action in this contest. Their effectiveness has been affected by the play of their three upperclassmen, who stepped into the role of leaders following that loss at Ole Miss on February 1st. Harrellson, affectionately named "Jorts" by the fan base, averages a team-best 8.8 rebounds while also scoring around eight points per game. The Wildcats will use Harrellson in ways outside of banging in the paint, and how UConn deals with this will have a lot to do with the outcome.

Harrellson can be used not only in ball screens but also in handoff situations, where he can either give the ball to a perimeter player while effectively setting a screen or fake the handoff. Once the fake happens the senior becomes a threat to turn and go to the basket, something he's been able to do throughout the current run. This level of contribution is a far cry from what was expected of the Missouri native upon arrival in Lexington, which is a credit to his hard work.

DeAndre Liggins may end up being the most important player on the floor for Kentucky due to his defensive ability, and he's been a solid contributor offensively as well. Averaging 8.8 points and 4.1 rebounds per game, Liggins is also one of the best defenders in America and stands to see quite a bit of Walker. Liggins averaged 13.5 points and 3.5 assists per game in Newark last week while also pestering both Ohio State and North Carolina defensively.

"You have a 6'6" player with long arms who can guard a point guard, a two-man, a three-man, and if I wanted him to, he could probably guard the four," remarked Coach Calipari when asked about Liggins. "Whoever is hurting you, he can go guard."

Darius Miller rounds out the upperclassmen trio (Vargas is a JUCO transfer in his first season at Kentucky), and when aggressive offensively Kentucky as a whole becomes a better team. MVP of the SEC Tournament, Miller averages 11.1 points per game on the season and shoots 48.5% from the field and 44.9% from three. Before scoring 10 points combined in wins over West Virginia and Ohio State the junior from Maysville, Kentucky reached double figures in 10 straight games. If not for his 17 against Princeton there's a good chance that Kentucky is at home instead of Houston this weekend.

There's also no mistaking the impact of the three freshmen, Terrence Jones, Brandon Knight and Doron Lamb. Knight runs the show at the point while also leading UK in scoring with an average of 17.3 points per game (4.2 assists/game as well). Simply put, Knight is a winner. He didn't make a single field goal going into the final seconds of the Princeton game but was still the option Coach Calipari chose, and Knight responded by making the game-winning basket. He's alternated poor shooting games with outstanding performances in the tournament, and if form holds it could be a long night for Knight (22 pts against UNC). But don't bet against him when it comes to making winning plays down the stretch.

"Brandon didn't have his best game against us, but I definitely expect him to have a better game," said Oriakhi. "He's definitely the leader for that team. He's been making clutch plays for them and has gotten them this far."

Jones is as gifted as any frontcourt player you'll find, averaging 15.8 points and 8.7 rebounds per game on the season. His scoring numbers may be down in the NCAA Tournament (high of 12 came against WVU) but the Portland native has a better understanding of the ways in which he can have an impact outside of scoring. Jones is averaging 6.8 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per game in the NCAA Tournament, and four of his six turnovers in the tournament came in Sunday's win over North Carolina. Lamb is the team's third-leading scorer with an average of 12.3 points per game, shooting 49.7% overall and 48.1% from three. UConn has to keep tabs on the freshman from Queens, who can silently kill teams who fail to acknowledge his presence on the floor.

The two teams are about even when it comes to rebounding with both having rebounding margins right around a plus-4. But the Huskies grab 14 offensive rebounds per game, a number that Harrellson and Jones (among others) need to keep UConn from reaching if Kentucky is to win. Assists and turnovers are close as well, although the Wildcats allow opponents to assist on just 48% of their made baskets (UConn allows 51.5%). The job for Kentucky is a simple one on the defensive end: make Walker work for everything in hope that he struggles, making the others beat them. Given how the Huskies young players have stepped up however, that could end up being just as bad as allowing Kemba to score 30-plus on his own.

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VCU/Butler Preview: Your Commentary

Raphielle Johnson — Sat, 02 Apr 2011 00:38:17 -0700

(11) VCU (28-11) vs. (8) Butler (27-9) 6:09 PM (CBS)

How they got here
VCU (Southwest Region champions)
W 59-46 over USC (First Four)
W 74-56 over (6) Georgetown
W 94-76 over (3) Purdue
W 72-71 over (10) Florida State
W 71-61 over (1) Kansas

Butler (Southeast Region champions)
W 60-58 over (9) Old Dominion
W 71-70 over (1) Pittsburgh
W 61-54 over (4) Wisconsin
W 74-71 (OT) over (2) Florida

The first semifinal at Reliant Stadium should be a good one, not even considering the obvious storyline of two teams from non-BCS conferences meeting in the Final Four. Shaka Smart's Rams, a team few had making the field of 68 on Selection Sunday, have not only taken advantage of their good fortune but have been impressive in doing so.

VCU has won four of their five NCAA Tournament games by ten points or more, most recently jumping Kansas after a 6-0 deficit to win the Southwest Region final in San Antonio on Sunday. The words of the naysayers have motivated this group, but most importantly they've played their best basketball of the season at just the right time.

"Our video guys are constantly taping all the things that the prognosticators say," remarked Coach Smart on Friday afternoon. "We print off every single article that talks about our game, that talks about Butler. We'll certainly use some of the things that are said."

As for the Bulldogs, they've won 13 straight games since the much-talked about loss at Youngstown State on February 3rd. Brad Stevens made the decision to use point guard Ronald Nored as a reserve, allowing junior guard Shelvin Mack to make more plays on the ball and players across the board have stepped up. Chrishawn Hopkins is a good example of this, as he came off the bench to make a couple important plays in the Elite 8 win over Florida. Mack and Matt Howard are the two "stars" for Butler, and when they're at their best the Bulldogs exemplify every aspect of the "Butler Way".

Guard play is a staple of basketball period much less making a run in the NCAA Tournament, and good examples of this will be on display on Saturday evening. Senior point guard Joey Rodriguez, who very nearly left the VCU program after the coaching change two years ago, runs the show for the Rams offensively. Averaging 10.5 points and 5.1 rebounds per game on the season, the Floridian has tallied five assists or more in eight of the last nine games.

In what was arguably the best offensive performance of any team in the Big Dance to date Rodriguez handed out 11 assists in the Purdue win, a game in which VCU averaged 1.36 points per possession (North Carolina scored 102 in their win over LIU but on 93 possessions). Rodriguez's ability to put his teammates in the best position possible to score has led to impressive offensive showings from a number of players, not just forward Jamie Skeen.

Skeen (15.4 ppg, 7.4 rpg) was outstanding in the win over Kansas, scoring 26 points and grabbing 10 rebounds against the Jayhawks' highly-touted frontcourt. The matchup between the Wake Forest transfer and Matt Howard will be a tough one, but there's no doubt that Skeen can get the job done.

"[Skeen] is probably the best low-post scorer in the tournament," said Rodriguez. "I think if we get him the ball, we'll be able to play with him and do some things we did against Kansas. If he comes out aggressive, ready to attack, then I think we'll be fine."

On the perimeter the Rams have a number of experienced contributors, from wing Bradford Burgess to guards Ed Nixon and Brandon Rozzell. Burgess and Rozzell both shot 40% or better from beyond the arc, and VCU has shot 40% or better in each of the last four games. Butler limits opponents to 32.6% from three on the season so something's got to give there. VCU's offense sparks their defense, a full-court pressure they refer to as "havoc". Is it outright running? No, each of these teams is right around 66 possessions/game on the season. But what happens within those possessions will likely determine the outcome on Saturday.

Butler does a good job of valuing the basketball, turning the ball over just 11 times per game on the season. VCU has forced opponents to turn the ball over on 22% of their possessions, with Florida State handing it over 23% of the time and Kansas 19% last weekend. Mack, Shawn Vanzant and Ronald Nored will all be key in this aspect of the game if the Bulldogs are to play within their comfort zone.

"You have to be prepared for multiple looks," said Howard of VCU's defensive strategy. "They're going to press. They'll play a little bit of zone. Then they also have a good man to man. I think when you're really scoring the ball really well too, that gives you energy defensively."

Howard (16.7 ppg, 7.7 rpg) and Mack (15.9 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 3.6 apt) are the offensive leaders for Butler but they've got other players who can hurt VCU if the Rams don't account for them. Vanzant's averaging three times as many points per game as he did last season, and his growth is a big reason why the Bulldogs overcame important personnel losses to return to the Final Four. Vanzant's reached double figures just once in the NCAA Tournament (Wisconsin) but he's tallied four assists in two of the four wins and grabbed seven rebounds in the win over Florida.

Nored's biggest contribution will more than likely come on the defensive end, where he ranks among the nation's best when it comes to on-ball defenders. His job offensively is primarily to get guys the best possible looks, and with a team field goal percentage of 44.3% Butler's done a good job of that for much of the season. Butler hasn't shot below 40% from the field since their win over Detroit back in February, and in the nine games since they've held their opponents below that mark four times.

Also important offensively are forwards Khyle Marshall and Andrew Smith. Marshall, who comes off the bench, scored 10 in the win over Florida and has scored 23 points in the last three games (7.7 ppg; averaging 5.9 on the season). Smith has surpassed his scoring average of 8.8 ppg just once in the NCAA Tournament (11 vs. ODU) but he shoots 62% from the field and understands his role. Going up against Skeen, Juvonte Reddic and Toby Veal (the latter two have been important contributors up front), Marshall and Smith will need to contribute if the Bulldogs are to win.

Also impacting the tempo will be rebounding, something the Bulldogs have been better at throughout the course of the season. VCU is a minus-3.8 on the season in rebounding margin, and while they've navigated that issue to this point the Rams were a minus-15 against Florida State and minus-10 against Kansas. If VCU can promote a game of "havoc" they'll be able to do so once again. But accomplishing such a feat against Butler is far easier said than done.

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College Hoops Tuesday: Your Commentary

Raphielle Johnson — Tue, 16 Nov 2010 02:07:39 -0800

This is the day that millions of college basketball fans have been waiting for since the final note of "One Shining Moment" (if that moment wasn't spent rightfully complaining about the butchering that Harvey Mason Jr. and Jennifer Hudson were allowed to pull off). 24 hours of college basketball to be viewed, from Miami (FL) at Memphis to a very good matchup between San Diego State and Gonzaga tipping off at 11 PM. In addition to that matchup at the Kennel there are a pair of games matching ranked teams that could have massive resume implications come March. Virginia Tech, who has been on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament fence the last three seasons due in large part to a weak non-conference schedule, will take on the challenge of attempting to win in the "Octagon of Doom".

The matchup with Kansas State will also feature one of the best guard matchups we'll see all season as ACC Preseason Player of the Year Malcolm Delaney matches up with Preseason Big 12 Player of the Year Jacob Pullen. Pullen, who experiences life without sidekick Denis Clemente, averaged 19.3 points and 3.6 assists per game in the Wildcats' Elite 8 season and may need to take on more of the primary ball-handling responsibilities with Clemente off to the professional ranks. As for Delaney, who averaged 20.2 points and 4.5 assists per game a season ago, he'll at least have a sidekick in Dorenzo Hudson who may be one of the more underrated perimeter players in America. Hudson averaged 15.2 points per game, a jump of 10.6 points from his 2008-09 average, including a 41-point outburst in the Hokies' win over Seton Hall (Delaney sat out due to injury).

As for the frontcourt injuries to Allan Chaney (heart ailment) and J.T. Thompson (torn ACL) leave Seth Greenberg's team lean up front and they'll need to rely on senior Jeff Allen even more. Immensely talented, Allen's career has also been plagued by moments of immaturity that at times has undermined his progression. Whether or not he's focused Virginia Tech is one of the better teams in the ACC, but if he is they're closer to second in the ACC pecking order than sixth. And speaking of maturity issues there's the case of Kansas State senior Curtis Kelly, who Frank Martin held out of the opener (and may hold out on Tuesday) due to poor practice habits. That's a disappointing development for the UConn transfer from the Bronx who showed so much promise in the Wildcats' NCAA run. Just means that there's more for Jamar Samuels to do, especially with junior college transfer Freddy Asprilla (by way of FIU) putting forth a nondescript performance in their season-opening win over James Madison.

There are many questions to be answered for both the Hokies and Wildcats on Tuesday afternoon, and the same goes for the contest that follows as Ohio State visits Florida. There's the enticing individual matchup of McDonald's All-Americans Jared Sullinger (Ohio State) and Patric Young (Florida) but by most accounts it's the Buckeye who's further ahead in his development. In terms of the Florida newcomers it's been swingman Casey Prather who's received the most effusive of praise thus far, and he'll be challenged by the likes of veterans Jon Diebler and David Lighty, and fellow frosh DeShaun Thomas. Billy Donovan's Gators are deep at all positions, blessed with the ability to count on the likes of Erving Walker, Kenny Boynton and Chandler Parsons on the perimeter, and Vernon Macklin and Alex Tyus up front. Ohio State has depth as well but they're still in search of a capable primary ball-handler with Evan Turner off to the NBA. How far along head coach Thad Matta and his staff are in their quest to this point will be determined in Gainesville.

The night ends with San Diego State, boasting the first ranking in school history, heading north to take on Gonzaga. Two of the best swingmen around will be on the floor as well, with the Aztecs' Kawhi Leonard and Bulldogs' Elias Harris both looking to build on standout freshman campaigns. Leonard averaged 12.7 points and 9.9 rebounds per game in earning Mountain West Freshman of the Year honors, and he led Steve Fisher's team in both categories as well. Harris, who averaged 14.9 points and 7.1 rebounds per game in 2009-10, has the more versatile offensive game at this point and his international experience in his native country (Germany) allowed him to hit the ground running upon arrival in Spokane. Nine combined starters return to these two teams (five for SDSU, four for Gonzaga) and names such as Demetri Goodson, Steven Gray, Malcolm Thomas and Billy White should be familiar to college basketball names by now. A fitting capper to what should be a great day of college basketball.

Top 25
7:30 PM Miami (OH) at (1) Duke (ESPNU)
10:00 PM South Carolina at (2) Michigan State (ESPN)
4:00 PM (23) Virginia Tech at (3) Kansas State (ESPN)
6:00 PM (5) Ohio State at (11) Florida (ESPN)
5:30 PM Marist at (6) Villanova (ESPNU)
11:00 PM San Diego State at (12) Gonzaga (ESPN2)
7:00 PM Detroit at (13) Syracuse (ESPN3)
2:00 PM La Salle at (14) Baylor (ESPN)
10:05 PM Eastern Washington at (17) Washington
8:00 PM (18) Butler at Louisville (ESPN)
9:30 PM Belmont at (20) Tennessee (ESPNU)
8:00 PM North Dakota at (24) Wisconsin (ESPN3)

NCAA Division I Games
6:00 AM Stony Brook at Monmouth (ESPN)
8:00 AM Robert Morris at Kent State (ESPN)
10:00 AM Northeastern at Southern Illinois (ESPN)
12:00 PM Oral Roberts at Tulsa (ESPN)
7:00 PM Gardner-Webb at Florida State
7:00 PM Colorado at Georgia (ESPN3)
7:00 PM Mississippi Valley State at Indiana
7:00 PM Indiana-Northwest at IUPUI
7:00 PM Coppin State at Towson
7:00 PM New Hampshire at Dartmouth
7:00 PM Brown at Rhode Island
7:00 PM North Carolina-Asheville at Furman
7:00 PM Coastal Carolina at Charleston
7:00 PM Savannah State at Jacksonville
7:00 PM Long Island at Texas State
7:00 PM Liberty at North Carolina-Wilmington
7:00 PM Montreat College at Appalachian State
7:00 PM Stetson at Bethune-Cookman
7:00 PM Virginia Commonwealth at Hampton
7:00 PM Neumann at Navy
7:00 PM NC Wesleyan at North Carolina A&T
7:00 PM Jacksonville State at Norfolk State
7:00 PM Hartford at Quinnipiac
7:00 PM Arkansas State vs. Missouri State*
7:00 PM Virginia-Wise at Virginia Military
7:00 PM IPFW at Xavier
7:00 PM Buffalo at Youngstown State
7:05 PM Southeast Missouri State at Florida Gulf Coast
7:30 PM Saint Joseph's at Penn State (ESPN3)
7:30 PM Citadel at Charleston Southern
7:30 PM Anderson at South Carolina State
7:30 PM CO Christian at Weber State
8:00 PM Boston University vs. George Washington*
8:00 PM Nicholls State at LSU
8:00 PM Texas Tech at North Texas
8:00 PM Texas-Tyler at Texas-Arlington
8:00 PM UMKC at Central Arkansas
8:00 PM Georgia State at McNeese State
8:00 PM Arlington Baptist at Prairie View A&M
8:00 PM Southern Methodist at TCU
8:05 PM Northern Illinois at Bradley (ESPN3)
8:05 PM Coe College at Northern Iowa
8:05 PM Texas Southern at Wichita State
8:30 PM Western Carolina at DePaul
8:30 PM Louisiana-Monroe at Iowa
9:00 PM Akron at Dayton
9:00 PM Alabama State at Northern Arizona
9:05 PM Wyoming at Northern Colorado
10:00 PM Arizona State at New Mexico
10:00 PM Idaho at Washington State
10:05 PM Bethany (CA) at Sacramento State
10:30 PM Cal-State Northridge at California
TBA Pacific at UCLA
TBA Pepperdine vs. Nevada
TBA Virginia Commonwealth at Wake Forest

Game of the Week: #1 UNC at #6 Duke

Jeff Borzello — Fri, 07 Mar 2008 18:06:04 -0800

Game of the Week: No. 1 North Carolina at No. 6 Duke (Saturday, ESPN, 9:00 PM)

With conference tournaments starting this week, March Madness is officially here. Bubble teams are making last-minute statements to the committee, automatic bids are being handed out, and conference races are coming down to the wire. However, before Championship Week gets underway for every conference, there is still business to be decided in the major conferences. This weekend features several key games, including Louisville and Georgetown facing off for the Big East crown, UAB hoping to get a marquee win at Memphis, and several other quality contests. But the best is the rivalry of all rivalries -- Duke and North Carolina. Both teams are atop the ACC and are fighting for not only the conference title but also a No. 1 seed in the Charlotte region come Selection Sunday. Separated by only eight miles and a few shades of blue, the battle for Tobacco Road should be a good one.

North Carolina Team Breakdown

North Carolina came into the season as one of the top candidates for preseason No. 1 and the national championship – and it has not disappointed so far. The Tar Heels are 28-2, with the lone losses both coming at home. One was a two-point defeat at the hands of Maryland, and the other was the first match-up against Duke – without Ty Lawson. UNC owns wins the most top-100 wins in the country, with 16, including victories over Clemson (twice), BYU, Kent State, Miami (Fl.), Davidson, Kentucky and Ohio State. The Tar Heels are ranked No. 2 in offensive efficiency and No. 26 in defensive efficiency.

North Carolina is led by one of the best players in the country, junior big man Tyler Hansbrough. The All-America is a dominant big man who has taken his game to another level this season, scoring at least 17 points in all but five games this year. He is also averaging over 28 points per game over his last seven contests. He is an efficient scorer who is also a relentless rebounder that can convert in a variety of ways. Starting next to him is Deon Thompson. The 6-8 sophomore has shown flashes of his potential times this season, but has struggled mightily lately. Swingman Danny Green started earlier in the year at the power forward position, but he has become one of the best sixth men in the country. Marcus Ginyard starts at small forward. He is a tremendous defensive player who can guard nearly any position on the floor with his length and athleticism. Alex Stepheson comes off the bench down low.

In the backcourt are sophomores Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington. Lawson might be the fastest player in college basketball with the ball in his hands, and he has the ability to score and distribute the ball in traffic and in transition for easy baskets. However, he missed six games with a high ankle sprain and is not yet at full-strength. In his absence, senior Quentin Thomas did an admirable job of filling in. He is very quick, but is at times careless and out-of-control with the ball. He became more comfortable the more he played, though, and averaged 6.7 assists in the six games Lawson missed. Ellington will start no matter what. He is a tremendous shooter and scorer who can make shots from anywhere on the court, from deep beyond the arc or in the mid-range. He is also heating up at the right time, averaging nearly 21 points per game over his last six contests.

Duke Team Breakdown

Duke has bounced back from a disappointing season last year, in which it was knocked out in the first round of the NCAA Tournament by Eric Maynor and Virginia Commonwealth. The Blue Devils have just three losses on the season, a one-point defeat at the hands of Pittsburgh when Levance Fields hit a step-back three with three seconds remaining, as well as back-to-back losses a couple of weeks ago at Wake Forest and Miami (Fl.). Duke owns impressive victories over North Carolina, Wisconsin, Marquette, Clemson and nearly everyone else in its path. Duke is ranked No. 6 in offensive efficiency and No. 9 in defensive efficiency – indicative of its tremendous balance at both ends of the floor.

Duke’s success starts on the perimeter, where it boasts one of the deepest and most talented set of wings and guards in the country. Five players rotate in and out of the game, with all five averaging at least 15 minutes and 6.5 points per game. Gerald Henderson and DeMarcus Nelson lead the way on the wings. Henderson has developed into one of the premier perimeter players in the ACC. He is extremely talented and athletic, and has finally been given a chance to showcase that. Nelson has developed greatly since he arrived in Durham, and is the team’s leading scorer, and is second in rebounds and assists. Greg Paulus starts at the point. The oft-criticized junior, despite his quickness and defensive deficiencies, is a solid leader that takes care of the ball and shoots the three. Jon Scheyer started last year, but comes off the bench this season and has developed into one of the best sixth men in the country. Nolan Smith backs up Paulus.

Up front, Kyle Singler has been one of the most impressive freshmen in the country. He is very difficult to guard, due to his ability to shoot the three, score inside and create plays off the dribble. He is fundamentally sound and forces match-up problems for nearly any defender. Lance Thomas starts at the five, but he’s more of an athletic forward who can run the floor and finish. Taylor King, who comes off the bench, is one of the best three-point shooters in the country. If he is open from anywhere on the court, he will take a shot. David McClure is a decent role player, and Brian Zoubek adds size.

Game Analysis and Prediction

Although Duke vs. North Carolina is always one of the best games on the college basketball schedule during the last weekend of the regular-season, this game has taken on added importance as it pits two of the top teams in the country against each other. Both squads are fighting for the top seed in the Charlotte region – and any other region, for that matter – in the NCAA Tournament as well as the always-coveted ACC regular-season title. Both teams like to push the ball and get transition baskets, but are also comfortable in a half-court set. Duke pressures the ball defensively with its stable of athletic perimeter players, forcing its opponent into turnovers and mistakes. At the other end, the Blue Devils spread the floor and create match-up problems because of the number of players that can shoot the three or take their defender off the dribble. North Carolina is one of the best offensive teams in the country, with the ability to knock down perimeter shots or throw it inside to Hansbrough and get baskets. Defensively, though, the Tar Heels have struggled at times, as they have given up at least 80 points on nine occasions this year.

If Duke is going to win the ACC and pull off the season sweep of North Carolina, it needs to do several things. First, it needs to take advantage of its perimeter depth and spread the floor in order to create mismatches across the board offensively. Kyle Singler can drag either Deon Thompson or Tyler Hansbrough away from the basket, and then take them off the dribble for easy baskets. If Danny Green comes in to play the four for UNC, Singler will have more than a three-inch height advantage. Also, Duke will have to take exceptional care of the ball against North Carolina’s perimeter ball pressure. Greg Paulus and Nolan Smith have done a good job of that this season, but will need to continue to do that if the Blue Devils have a chance of winning. UNC is not the best defensive team around, obviously, and Duke will have to make them play defense. Turnovers lead to easy baskets and momentum for North Carolina – exactly what Duke can’t afford. Defensively, Duke will have to stop Tyler Hansbrough. The Blue Devils have no one taller than 6-9 besides Brian Zoubek, and they don’t have any legit post defenders that can really stifle the opposition. If Hansbrough has a big game, it opens things up for the rest of the Tar Heels, which have a tremendously explosive offense. Lastly, Duke has to get back in transition defensively. Ty Lawson – and Quentin Thomas – loves to push the ball and North Carolina is very good at filling the transition lanes on fast-break opportunities for easy baskets.

On the other side, North Carolina needs Ty Lawson or Thomas to take care of the ball. Lawson is one of the premier lead guards in the country, but he might not be at full-strength yet; Thomas has become much more comfortable running the offense lately. Duke extends its defense well past the three-point line and sometimes past half-court if it senses vulnerability with the opponent’s ball-handler. Lawson can break the pressure and get the offense started by himself, but Thomas needs to be strong with the ball and not turn it over. Duke has plenty of athletes that can score in transition; UNC can’t allow that. Also, UNC needs to get the ball to Hansbrough early and often. He is much too strong and talented inside for anyone on Duke to stop. The Blue Devils don’t have a lot of height or inside strength, and Hansbrough can dominate down low. If he gets Singler or Lance Thomas into foul trouble early, it puts Duke at an even bigger disadvantage in the paint. Hansbrough had a monster game last meeting (28 and 18), but Wayne Ellington, Marcus Ginyard and Danny Green shot just 7-for-34. UNC’s perimeter players need to step up. Defensively, UNC needs to play tough perimeter defense and it also needs to rotate in terms of its help defense. Duke has several players who can take their defender off the dribble, but UNC will need to be sure to rotate over and step into the lane to stop penetration. Duke loves to get into the paint and then kick the ball out for open threes and jumpshots. Furthermore, Duke has a plethora of players who can shoot the three-pointer with efficiency – UNC will need to get out and contest the Devils’ shots. If Duke starts knocking down outside shots and getting into the lane, it will spell trouble for UNC. Duke hit several long-range bombs in the last meeting, which ultimately did the Tar Heels in.

Going into last game, the key was clearly the health of Ty Lawson. This game will be slightly different; Lawson is definitely going to play, but how healthy will he be? He played 21 minutes against Boston College and 20 vs. Florida State, but seemed closer to his old self in the latter game. He adds a different dimension to the UNC lineup when he is in the game. Despite his return, though, I’m going with Duke again. They have the offensive firepower to exploit UNC’s defensive liabilities and the defensive pressure to stifle the Tar Heels’ explosive offense.

Prediction: Duke 87, North Carolina 82

Game of the Week: #11 Georgetown at #21 Marquette

Jeff Borzello — Fri, 29 Feb 2008 07:55:38 -0800

Game of the Week: No. 11 Georgetown at No. 21 Marquette (Saturday, 2:00 PM, CBS)

With March on its way and Selection Sunday just around the corner, most of the talk around the country has been focusing on bubble teams and the always-popular “In or Out?” question. However, once the NCAA Tournament starts, the majority of people forget about those teams and start looking at the teams that can potentially make a Final Four run. In other words, don’t forget that there are still marquee games between conference contenders this weekend – not just bubble battles between middling major-conference teams. In the Pac-10, Stanford takes on Washington State; Michigan State gets a chance for revenge against Indiana in the Big Ten; and Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga face-off to decide who will win the West Coast Conference. However, the best game might take place in the Big East, when co-conference leader Georgetown heads to Wisconsin to go up against a hot Marquette team.

Georgetown Team Breakdown

Georgetown came into the season as the co-Big East favorite along with Louisville, and the Hoyas have not disappointed. They have been at the top of the conference all season long, and have stayed in the top-15 of the polls throughout the year. All four of their losses came on the road, including defeats at Memphis, Pittsburgh and the aforementioned Cardinals. On the other hand, Georgetown also has wins over Connecticut, Notre Dame and West Virginia. It is ranked No. 23 in offensive efficiency and No. 8 in defensive efficiency.

The Hoyas are led by center Roy Hibbert, one of the best big men in the country. His numbers don’t reflect how good he is; he has the ability to dominate a game with his size and skill at both ends of the floor. Starting up front with him is sophomore DaJuan Summers, who has improved since last season. He has taken a more aggressive role offensively, and can score inside and out. Off the bench is Patrick Ewing, Jr., an athletic and energetic big man who can defend and score around the basket. Vernon Macklin also sees time.

Georgetown starts three guards on the perimeter, led by upperclassmen Jonathan Wallace and Jessie Sapp. Both players are interchangeable; both can handle the ball and run the offense, and both can play off-the-ball and knock down three-pointers. Wallace is very solid from beyond the arc, while Sapp is a clutch performer down the stretch who can get into the lane as well as shoot. Freshman Austin Freeman is very efficient from the field and he can shoot from anywhere on the court. Jeremiah Rivers comes off the bench. He is an outstanding defender who is usually in the game when it counts because of his ability on that side of the ball.

Marquette Team Breakdown

Marquette was generally considered the third-best team in the Big East, but a decent amount behind Georgetown and Louisville. While the Golden Eagles have been somewhat inconsistent at times this season, they are getting hot at the right time and will be a tough out in March. All six of their losses were to top-35 RPI teams, including two to Louisville, as well as games against Duke, Connecticut and Notre Dame. Their best wins are at Wisconsin, Notre Dame and Pittsburgh. In terms of efficiency, Marquette is ranked No. 19 offensively and No. 11 defensively.

The Golden Eagles are led by their perimeter group, one of the best in the nation. Dominic James is an outstanding point guard. He is fearless when driving to the rim and can finish with anyone in the country. He is not overly consistent from three-point range, but he is a playmaker off the bounce. Jerel McNeal is one of the better two-way players in the Big East. He can do nearly anything on the court – besides shoot threes – and is a lockdown defender. Wesley Matthews is another double-figure scorer on the perimeter. He can shoot the three and has a nice mid-range game. Off the bench, David Cubillan is an excellent three-point shooter, while Maurice Acker can shoot the ball as well as run the offense.

The frontcourt has long been considered Marquette’s main weakness, although that trend is beginning to change this season. The main reason – sophomore Lazar Hayward. He is just 6-6, but he can hold his own in the post and has the offensive versatility to step out to the perimeter and consistent knock down three-pointers. He is also a very solid rebounder. Ousmane Barro provides length when he is in the game; he is the team’s best shot-blocker and is a good rebounder. Dan Fitzgerald, despite his 6-9 size, is mostly a three-point shooter but he is decent in the paint.

Game Analysis and Prediction

The Big East has a handful of teams in the top-25 of the RPI, and all are in some sort of contention for the conference title. Georgetown is at the top with Louisville, while Marquette has been making a run of late with its outstanding recent play. This game should reflect what is at stake – as well as the difference in the two teams’ respective styles. Georgetown runs a version of the Princeton offense, filled with backdoor cuts and open passing lanes. Defensively, the Hoyas play tough half-court defense and don’t allow too many open shots. Having the 7-3 Hibbert down low helps things. On the other side, Marquette has a variety of perimeter players who can either take their defender off the dribble or hit the three off penetration. At the other end, Marquette loves to pressure the opponents’ guards and play the passing lanes hoping for steals and transition baskets. It will interesting to see which side prevails.

If Georgetown is going to take the next step in its quest for the Big East title, it is going to have to do several things in order to knock off the hot Golden Eagles on their home-court. First, the Hoyas need to establish Roy Hibbert down low early and often. Marquette is not a very big team at all; its best inside player is 6-6 Lazar Hayward and 6-9 Dan Fitzgerald would rather play on the perimeter. Hibbert will have a major size advantage on whomever is defending him; Georgetown has to take advantage of that. Also offensively, Georgetown will have to avoid making vulnerable passes that have a chance of getting picked off and turn the tables on the aggressive Marquette guards. The Hoyas should wait until either Dominic James or Jerel McNeal overplays defensively, and then beat them with a backdoor cut for an easy basket. Defensively, Georgetown has to force James and McNeal to shoot three-pointers and keep them out of the lane. When they both have opportunities to consistently beat their defenders off the dribble and create for themselves and their teammates, Marquette is much more difficult to defend. When they begin to penetrate, the defense collapses and leaves Hayward, Fitzgerald, Wesley Matthews, David Cubillan – all very good three-point shooters – open for jumpers from beyond the arc. Neither James or McNeal is consistent from three-point range, and it would help if the Hoyas could force them to shoot jumpers.

On the other side, if Marquette is going to continue its winning ways against one of the best teams in the country, and the co-conference leader in the Big East, it will need to take advantage of a few things and overcome a couple of weaknesses. First, slowing down Hibbert inside and making sure to grab defensive rebounds are the biggest things. Marquette does not have anyone who can stop Hibbert by himself, but they cannot allow him to get uncontested entry passes and wide-open touches down low. If he establishes himself, Marquette could be in trouble. Additionally, the Golden Eagles are not a very good defensive rebounding team, while Georgetown has the players to exploit that disadvantage. Also on the defensive end, Marquette needs to force turnovers and try to get transition baskets. Georgetown would much rather have the game played strictly in the half-court – outside of a couple of fast-break opportunities – but Marquette has the guards to play an up-and-down game. A few mishaps early by Georgetown, and Marquette will have a chance to get easy points and grab the momentum. Offensively, Marquette has to hit its three-pointers. Georgetown guards the rim and paint very well, but teams have had success shooting threes against the Hoyas. Marquette has a host of quality three-point shooters; if they are knocking down their jumpers, they will be tough to stop. On that same thread, players like James and McNeal can’t settle for outside shots; they have to attempt to take the ball to the basket and make plays around the rim.

This game is going to be a very interesting battle between two teams looking to solidify their seeding for both the conference tournament in a couple of weeks, as well as the NCAA Tournament in mid-March. Both teams play different styles and have completely different line-up types. In the end, the difference is going to be the guards of Marquette and their defense. I think they will be able to get a couple of turnovers and quick baskets early, which will get the home crowd into it and give the Golden Eagles some momentum, and Marquette will be able to hang on late.

Prediction: Marquette 73, Georgetown 68

Game of the Week: #2 Tennessee at #1 Memphis

Jeff Borzello — Fri, 22 Feb 2008 14:48:10 -0800

Game of the Week: No. 2 Tennessee at No. 1 Memphis (Saturday, 9:00 PM, ESPN)

No. 1 vs. No. 2. It’s the most sought-after match-up in college sports, and it seems to happen more rarely than most fans would want. However, the entire nation will get to see the top two-ranked teams – not necessarily the two “best” teams – go head-to-head in a battle to decide who will be No. 1 in the country next week. Memphis has been at or near the top of the polls all season, while Tennessee had been a solid top-ten squad for most of the year, but outstanding recent play combined with losses from other top-five teams left a gaping hole at No. 2. Luckily for the Vols – and ESPN – their ascent happened just in time to face intrastate rival Memphis in one of the most highly-anticipated non-conference match-ups in recent years.

Tennessee Team Breakdown

Tennessee came into the season as the heavy favorite to win the SEC, but struggled a little bit to open the season, getting obliterated by 19 on a neutral court against Tennessee. Since then, though, the Volunteers have been one of the best teams in the country, winning 19 of their last 20 games, with the lone loss coming at Kentucky. They own wins over Xavier, Gonzaga, West Virginia, Ohio State, as well as every postseason contender in the SEC. UT, the nation’s top-ranked team in the RPI, is ranked No. 10 in offensive efficiency and No. 27 in defensive efficiency.

The Volunteers have one of the deepest, most athletic squads in the country. It starts on the perimeter with All-America candidate Chris Lofton, a senior guard who had struggled shooting the ball for the first half of the season. However, in the last nine games, Lofton has knocked down over 49 percent of his three-point attempts and is averaging over 19 points per game. Flanking him is JaJuan Smith, a very good scorer and tremendous defensive player. Smith plays the passing lanes unbelievably well and has very quick hands. The two-headed point guard of Ramar Smith and Jordan Howell combines to average 13.7 points, 3.8 rebounds and 5.9 assists and just 3.2 turnovers per game. Smith is more of a scorer and playmaker, while Howell is a heady player who doesn’t turn the ball over. Former Arizona transfer J.P. Prince is the team’s fifth-leading scorer since becoming eligible in mid-December.

Up front, Tyler Smith has made an immediate impact after coming over from Iowa and contributes in a variety of ways. He leads the team in rebounds and assists, and is third in scoring; he might be the most indispensable player on the entire Vols’ roster. Wayne Chism is a good inside-outside scorer who needs to get tougher down low. His scoring is inconsistent, but he has improved as a rebounder throughout the course of the season. Duke Crews missed nine games due to a heart condition, but he is athletic and can finish around the rim. Freshman rebounder Brian Williams sees back-up minutes in the paint, while Ryan Childress is a decent inside-outside option but has seen just 12 minutes total over the last eight games.

Memphis Team Breakdown

Memphis was ranked as the preseason No. 1 in several polls, including mine, and the Tigers have not disappointed those that pegged them as the top team in the country. They are 26-0 and on the top of the rankings as the lone undefeated team in the country. Despite their mediocre in-conference slate, the Tigers made-up for it with non-league wins over Connecticut, Oklahoma, USC, Arizona, Gonzaga and Georgetown. They struggled slightly last week against Houston and UAB, but escaped with wins in both games. The Tigers are the nation’s most efficient defensive team, and also rank No. 28 in offensive efficiency.

Memphis has one of the best perimeter duos in the country in freshman point guard Derrick Rose and junior wing Chris Douglas-Roberts. Rose is a premier point guard although he tends to make freshmen mistakes at times. He came into college as an extremely highly-rated lead guard and has been one of the best playmakers in the country. Douglas-Roberts has become one of the better scorers in the nation with his ability to finish in a variety of ways. The Tigers had lacked a go-to scorer, but CDR has clearly stepped into that role. He is averaging almost 28 points per game in his last three contests. Antonio Anderson contributes in different ways, whether distributing and handling the ball, or knocking down three-pointers. Doneal Mack is a very good scorer who is fifth on the team in scoring despite ranking ninth in minutes. Willie Mack and Andre Allen see minutes off the bench; Mack is a good shooter and scorer, while Allen is a solid defender.

Up front, Memphis isn’t as deep but it still has plenty of talent and options. Robert Dozier has shown flashes of his potential but has not been consistent throughout the season. He can score in a variety of ways, by posting-up defenders or driving to the basket from the top of the key. Joey Dorsey might be the best defender-rebounder combination player in the country. He is an outstanding shot-blocker who can change games with his ability to defend. He also averages almost 11 rebounds per game, but has trouble with fouls. Offensively, he shoots almost 69 percent from the field but isn’t a consistent option. Shawn Taggart is a very solid scorer and rebounder who has shown flashes of his skill.

Game Analysis and Prediction

Despite the fact that it is only a non-conference game, don’t underestimate the importance of this game. Obviously, it is No. 1 vs. No. 2, which immediately makes it a must-see game. We have had some disappointing top-ranked games that haven’t lived up to the hype, but this one will be different. Both teams are in the mix for No. 1 seeds; Memphis might have one locked up already, but a win here would clinch it. Tennessee would take a huge step forward with a win over the undefeated Tigers on the road. It is going to be an up-and-down affair, as both teams love to push the ball to get transition points, and create offensive opportunities with their defense. The Volunteers shoot a lot of three-pointers and don’t often score many back-to-the-basket points. They are also adept at getting to the basket when defenders overplay the three-pointer. Memphis utilizes the AASAA offense, in which they constantly attack the basket until an open shot or driving opportunity presents itself. Like the Vols, they are primarily perimeter-oriented.

If Tennessee is going to head on the road and give Memphis its first loss of the season, it is going to need to get several things going in its favor. First, the Volunteers need to knock down their three-point shots. Memphis defends the three very well with its array of long and athletic perimeter players, but Tennessee will undoubtedly find open shots from beyond the arc. They will need to hit them. Chris Lofton has been hot from there lately, but nearly everyone in the lineup can shoot it. Secondly, although they need to knock down their three-pointers, they can’t settle for perimeter jumpshots and just rely on the three-ball to beat the Tigers. Tyler Smith is a match-up problem for Memphis, and he and Wayne Chism could accomplish a lot by simply drawing Robert Dozier and Joey Dorsey away from the basket. That would open up driving and passing – Tennessee leads the nation in assists – lanes for Tennessee. Getting to the basket and going to the foul-line could be key. Dorsey has a tendency to get into foul trouble, and the Tigers lose a lot defensively when he is out of the game. At the other end of the floor, Tennessee needs to get Derrick Rose to turn the ball over. He is an outstanding player, but he also turns the ball over a decent amount against pressure. Getting turnovers and points in transition will ease a lot of the things Tennessee needs to do. Also, Tennessee needs to be sure to grab defensive rebounds. Memphis is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, while the Volunteers are not very good on the defensive glass. Limiting second-chances and multiple opportunities for Memphis would be huge.

On the other side, if Memphis is going to pass its toughest test of the season and continue to march towards an undefeated season, it will need to do a variety of things. Offensively, it needs to take care of the ball and not allow Tennessee to get going in transition for easy baskets. Rose is strong enough to break the press himself, but he can’t try to do too much. Making the easy pass and settling down the offense once the Tigers get past the press would be ideal. Although Memphis also likes getting up-and-down the court, its half-court game is much more effective than Tennessee’s half-court offense and defense are. Furthermore, Memphis needs to hit its three-pointers, but not take too many of them. The Tigers take plenty of long-range shots and are not all that impressive from deep. They shoot just 34 percent from beyond the arc, while Tennessee holds teams to just 29 percent from three-point range. That doesn’t bode well for Memphis, which needs to utilize its size advantage on the wings and inside to get baskets inside the arc. The Volunteers don’t defend two-points all that well; they are certainly vulnerable if the Tigers take the ball to the basket. Defensively, Memphis has to extend its half-court defense and not allow any of Tennessee’s three-point shooters to get hot from deep. Lofton has been hitting his threes, but if the Smiths and even Chism start knocking down threes, Memphis will be in trouble. Lastly, Dorsey needs to stay on the floor. He has the ability to make a difference at both ends of the floor, especially against a team like Tennessee that struggles to defend big men down low and also have small guards that have a tendency to get their shots blocked inside.

Once it became apparent that Memphis was not going to lose and Tennessee should run away with the SEC, everyone circled Saturday on their calendars. With all the hype and anticipation, the only thing we can do it hope it doesn’t disappoint. It won’t. Not with two of the most fun-to-watch teams in the country and two of the best coaches – John Calipari of Memphis and Bruce Pearl of Tennessee – in the land roaming the sidelines. The difference will be Memphis’ edge down low and the Tigers’ homecourt advantage. If Rose can handle the pressure and Dorsey stays out of foul trouble, expect yet another Memphis win.

Prediction: Memphis 86, Tennessee 82

Game of the Week: Michigan State at Indiana

Jeff Borzello — Sat, 16 Feb 2008 09:01:02 -0800

Game of the Week: No. 10 Michigan State at No. 13 Indiana (Saturday, 9:00 PM, ESPN)

When two of the best teams in the Big Ten face-off, it is guaranteed to be one of the better games of the weekend. In this case, Michigan State and Indiana are both coming off of losses, but are still right in the thick of the conference title race. However, Saturday night’s game will be more than just a battle for conference supremacy. In the light of all the recent happenings at Indiana involving Kelvin Sampson, it will be interesting to see if it could potentially be a distraction to the Hoosiers. Rumors swirling around regarding Sampson’s coaching future at IU will certainly not help a young team in need of a marquee win. It should be an outstanding match-up.

Michigan State Team Breakdown

Michigan State came into the season as the co-Big Ten favorite – along with Indiana – and a potential Final Four sleeper. However, the Spartans have been somewhat inconsistent this season, beating the likes of Texas, BYU and Purdue, but also losing to teams such as Iowa and Penn State. They have struggled scoring the ball on occasion, averaging just 57.3 points per game in their four losses. MSU is ranked No. 38 in offensive efficiency and No. 23 in defensive efficiency.

The Spartans have a deep and balanced team, but the key is play of the perimeter. Senior Drew Neitzel developed into a go-to-guy last season, but has taken a step back this season as other players have become consistent offensive options. He is still a great leader who can knock down clutch shots late in the game. He takes tremendous care of the ball, and can also distribute. Freshman Kalin Lucas and junior Travis Walton can both play the point, although Lucas is much more of an aggressive scorer, while Walton is a defensive stopper. Lucas is very quick and can create plays for himself and his teammates; Walton takes care of the ball and is a very good passer. Durrell Summers and Chris Allen both see less than 13 minutes per game, but they are fifth and six on the team in scoring, respectively. Summers is an outstanding shooter.

Up front, sophomore Raymar Morgan has become one of the better all-around players in the Big Ten. He can score in a variety of ways, as he has the ability to post-up smaller players down low or hit the mid-range jumper and drive past slower defenders. He is very difficult to defend. Goran Suton is an underrated inside performer. He is an efficient finisher inside and is one of the best rebounders in the conference. Suton is also a good passer with decent vision for a big man. Marquise Gray is an athletic forward who can rebound very well and bang down low, while Drew Naymick is a solid shot-blocker and rebounder who is extremely efficient inside.

Indiana Team Breakdown

Indiana was one of the candidates to win the Big Ten heading into the season, and it sure looked like that projection was going to be correct when the Hoosiers jumped out to a 17-1 record, including six straight wins in the Big Ten. Since then, though, IU is just 3-3, getting swept by Wisconsin and losing at home to Connecticut. Their best win on the season is at Ohio State – not exactly a marquee victory. The Hoosiers are ranked No. 20 in offensive efficiency and No. 22 at the other end of the floor.

The Hoosiers have one of the best inside-outside combos in the country in freshman guard Eric Gordon and senior big man D.J. White. Gordon has proved himself to be one of the best guards in the country, regardless of classification. He can score in a variety of ways, driving to the basket or shooting from three. He has unlimited range and is not afraid to take – and make – the big shot. White has become a premier big man, arguably the best in the Big Ten and one of the best in America. He is a double-double lock every night out, and can dominate the post against anyone. He is a tremendous defender and rebounder who is extremely efficient when finishing.

Indiana is very deep on the perimeter, with two double-figure scorers in addition to Gordon. Armon Bassett is one of the top three-point shooters in the conference, and has increased his production lately. He has the ability to play both guard positions. Jordan Crawford is a crafty freshman guard that can do nearly everything on the court. He tends to make mistakes at times and has been unbelievable inconsistent lately. Jamarcus Ellis is a junior wing that is one of the best rebounders in the Big Ten despite his 6-foot-5 stature. He is athletic and can distribute the ball well. Forward Lance Stemler is an inside-outside scoring threat who is usually good for a clutch three every game, while DeAndre Thomas and Mike White can bang down low.

Game Analysis and Prediction

Despite the poor play this week by each team, expect this to be one of the best games of the Big Ten season. Both teams have plenty of talent and can score from both inside and out with different options. Both teams like playing in the half-court, although Indiana has the athletes and scorers to get points in transition. Defensively, neither team forces many turnovers but they both play stingy half-court defense – indicative of the Big Ten as a whole. This game also holds more importance than one would expect in terms of the Big Ten standings. A loss here for Michigan State, and the Spartans could drop to fifth in the conference if Ohio State wins. That would not bode well for their seeding in the NCAA Tournament. Indiana has lost whatever momentum it built due to its hot start, and needs to pick-up a victory to get back on the right track.

If Michigan State is going to catapult itself back into the Big Ten race with a win on the road, it needs to play much better than it has in its last two contests away from home. In order to get the win, it will first need to start knocking down three-pointers. The Spartans didn’t hit a single long-range shot in their loss at Purdue on Tuesday and are shooting below 35 percent from beyond the arc on the season. The interesting thing is that MSU has players that can stroke the jumper consistently. Drew Neitzel has range, Kalin Lucas and Chris Allen are decent, and Durrell Summers is a terrific jump-shooter. Indiana is susceptible to the three-point shot, and the Spartans need to take advantage of that. Secondly, they will have to get consistent inside-outside production. Neitzel has been inconsistent in big games, while Goran Suton has been a non-factor at times. Lucas is not ready to be a go-to-guy, and Raymar Morgan can’t be the only scorer. Against a team like Indiana, Michigan State is going to need to get production from a variety of options. It would help if Neitzel reverted to his ways from last year, as well. Lastly, the Spartans have to slow down either Eric Gordon or D.J. White. It is obviously impossible to shut both of them down, but allowing both to have huge games would spell doom for MSU. They can’t allow Gordon to get hot from deep or White to dominate down low.

On the other side, Indiana has the home-court advantage but the off-court distractions. That will be the most important thing: focusing on the game and not on what is going on with the pending NCAA investigation and upcoming decision regarding Kelvin Sampson’s future with the team. The Hoosiers are still relatively young and inexperienced, and you never know if their minds might be elsewhere heading into the game. However, I think they’ll be okay – will Sampson? That’s the question. Defensively, Indiana needs to keep the Michigan State players out of the lane. Indiana starts four perimeter players for the most part and can’t allow Lucas, Neitzel, etc. to get into the lane and create for their teammates. The Spartans don’t shoot the three well, so IU has to force them to hit their perimeter shots. Pack it in or zone them; both could be successful. They also have to be sure to limit the Spartans’ second chances. White is really the only starting post player that Indiana has, and Michigan State is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. It’s imperative that Indiana cleans up MSU’s missed shots. Offensively, the secondary options for the Hoosiers will have to step-up and get points. Defensive stopper Travis Walton will be defending Gordon, which could be tough, while MSU has plenty of big guys to throw at White. Players like Armon Bassett and Jordan Crawford could be key.

The game is going to come down to who can get clutch baskets down the stretch; Michigan State is more experienced and has the personnel to slow down Indiana’s main offensive options late in the game. Despite the Spartans’ recent struggles on the road, I think they will get the win because of their offensive versatility and the off-court distractions for Indiana.

Prediction: Michigan State 66, Indiana 63

Game of the Week: Duke at North Carolina

Jeff Borzello — Wed, 06 Feb 2008 08:42:30 -0800

Game of the Week: No. 2 Duke at No. 3 North Carolina (Tonight, 9:00 PM, ESPN)

Aside from the NCAA Tournament, conference tournaments, Cinderella runs, what makes college basketball special are the rivalries. Nothing is better than those intrastate contests between two neighboring teams for bragging rights. With ESPN introducing “Rivalry Week” a few years ago, we now have all of those rivalry games over the span of a few days. And, of course, it features the biggest rivalry in all of college basketball and arguably the best rivalry in all of sports – the battle for Tobacco Road, North Carolina and Duke. Separated by only eight miles and a few shades of blue, all records and stats go out the window when the Tar Heels and Blue Devils get together.

Duke Team Breakdown

Duke has bounced back from a disappointing season last year, in which it was bounced in the first round of the NCAA Tournament by Eric Maynor and Virginia Commonwealth. The Blue Devils have just one loss on the season, a one-point defeat at the hands of Pittsburgh when Levance Fields hit a step-back three with three seconds remaining. Duke owns impressive victories over Wisconsin, Marquette, Clemson and nearly everyone else in the Blue Devils’ path. Duke is ranked No. 5 in offensive efficiency and No. 6 in defensive efficiency – indicative of its tremendous balance at both ends of the floor.

Duke’s success starts on the perimeter, where it boasts one of the deepest and most talented set of wings and guards in the country. Five players rotate in and out of the game, with all five averaging at least 16 minutes and 6.7 points per game. Gerald Henderson and DeMarcus Nelson lead the way on the wings. Henderson has developed into one of the premier perimeter players in the ACC. He is extremely talented and athletic, and has finally been given a chance to showcase that. Nelson has developed greatly since he arrived in Durham, and is the team’s leading scorer and rebounder, and is second in assists. Greg Paulus starts at the point. The oft-criticized junior, despite his quickness and defensive deficiencies, is a solid leader that takes care of the ball and shoots the three. Jon Scheyer started last year, but comes off the bench this year and has developed into one of the best sixth men in the country. Nolan Smith backs up Paulus.

North Carolina Team Breakdown

North Carolina came into the season as one of the top candidates for preseason No. 1 and the national championship – and it has not disappointed so far. The Tar Heels are 21-1, with the lone loss a two-point defeat at the hands of Maryland in Chapel Hill. UNC owns wins the most top-100 wins in the country, with 14. That includes victories over Ohio State, Clemson, Kent State and Davidson, as well as many other solid teams. The Tar Heels are ranked No. 4 in offensive efficiency and No. 30 in defensive efficiency.

North Carolina is led by one of the best players in the country, junior big man Tyler Hansbrough. The All-America is a dominant big man who has taken his game to another level this season, scoring at least 17 points in all but five games this year. He is an efficient scorer who is also a relentless rebounder that can convert in a variety of ways. Starting next to him is Deon Thompson. The 6-8 sophomore is averaging about 13 points and five rebounds over his past three games. Swingman Danny Green started earlier in the year at the power forward position, but he has become one of the best sixth men in the country. Marcus Ginyard starts at small forward. He is a tremendous defensive player who can guard nearly any position on the floor with his length and athleticism. Alex Stepheson comes off the bench down low.

In the backcourt are sophomores Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington. Lawson might be the fastest player in college basketball with the ball in his hands, and he has the ability to score and distribute the ball in traffic and in transition for easy baskets. However, it is questionable that Lawson will be able to play against Duke tonight after spraining his left ankle against FSU Sunday. "Right now I don't think the chances are real good (that Lawson will play)," coach Roy Williams said Monday. His status for the game won’t be known until today. If he is out, either Ginyard (who has turf toe currently) or senior Quentin Thomas will handle the point guard responsibilities. Thomas tends to be out of control at times and turn the ball over, but he played well in Lawson’s place against FSU and has experience. Luckily for him, Ellington will start no matter what. He is a tremendous shooter and scorer who can make shots from anywhere on the court, from deep beyond the arc or in the mid-range. He is struggling lately, though, averaging just 11.3 points per game in his last six contests.

Game Analysis and Prediction

Although Duke vs. North Carolina is always one of the best games on the college basketball schedule in February, this game has taken on added importance as it pits two of the top-three teams in the country against each other. Both squads are fighting for the top seed in the Charlotte region – and any other region, for that matter – in the NCAA Tournament as well as the always-coveted ACC regular-season title. Both teams like to push the ball and get transition baskets, but are also comfortable in a half-court set. Duke pressures the ball defensively with its stable of athletic perimeter players, forcing its opponent into turnovers and mistakes. At the other end, the Blue Devils spread the floor and create match-up problems because of the number of players that can shoot the three or take their defender off the dribble. North Carolina is one of the best offensive teams in the country, with the ability to knock down perimeter shots or throw it inside to Hansbrough and get baskets. Defensively, though, the Tar Heels have struggled at times, as they have given up at least 80 points on six occasions this year.

If Duke is going to go on the road and pull off the upset, it needs to do several things. First, it needs to take advantage of its perimeter depth and spread the floor in order to create mismatches across the board offensively. Kyle Singler can drag either Deon Thompson or Tyler Hansbrough away from the basket, and then take them off the dribble for easy baskets. If Danny Green comes in to play the four for UNC, Singler will have more than a three-inch height advantage. Also, Duke will have to take exceptional care of the ball against North Carolina’s perimeter ball pressure. Greg Paulus and Nolan Smith have done a good job of that this season, but will need to continue to do that if the Blue Devils have a chance of winning. UNC is not the best defensive team around, obviously, and Duke will have to make them play defense. Turnovers lead to easy baskets and momentum for North Carolina – exactly what Duke can’t afford. Defensively, Duke will have to stop Tyler Hansbrough. The Blue Devils have no one taller than 6-9 on the roster since Brian Zoubek broke his foot, and they don’t have any legit post defenders that can really stifle the opposition. If Hansbrough has a big game, it opens things up for the rest of the Tar Heels, which have a tremendously explosive offense. Lastly, Duke has to get back in transition defensively. Ty Lawson loves to push the ball and North Carolina is very good at filling the transition lanes on fast-break opportunities for easy baskets.

On the other side, North Carolina needs Ty Lawson healthy, and if not, Quentin Thomas will have to take care of the ball. Duke extends its defense well past the three-point line and sometimes past half-court if it senses vulnerability with the opponent’s ball-handler. Lawson can break the pressure and get the offense started by himself, but Thomas needs to be strong with the ball and not turn it over. Duke has plenty of athletes that can score in transition; UNC can’t allow that. Also, UNC needs to get the ball to Hansbrough early and often. He is much too strong and talented inside for anyone on Duke to stop. The Blue Devils don’t have a lot of height or inside strength, and Hansbrough can dominate down low. If he gets Singler or Lance Thomas into foul trouble early, it puts Duke at an even bigger disadvantage in the paint. Defensively, UNC needs to play tough perimeter defense and it also needs to rotate in terms of its help defense. Duke has several players who can take their defender off the dribble, but UNC will need to be sure to rotate over and step into the lane to stop penetration. Duke loves to get into the paint and then kick the ball out for open threes and jumpshots. Furthermore, Duke has a plethora of players who can shoot the three-pointer with efficiency – UNC will need to get out and contest the Devils’ shots. If Duke starts knocking down outside shots and getting into the lane, it will spell trouble for UNC.

In the end, the most important aspect of tonight’s game – aside from the return of Dick Vitale, of course – is going to be the health of Tywon Lawson. If he is able to play – and perform well – on a sprained ankle, UNC will receive a huge boost at both ends of the floor. More likely, however, Lawson will have to sit out and Quentin Thomas will see extended minutes. He is nowhere near the player Lawson is, and could have trouble against Duke’s perimeter defense. Therefore, I’m leaning towards Lawson not playing – and Duke picking up a huge win on the road. They have the offensive firepower to exploit UNC’s defensive liabilities and the defensive pressure to stifle the Tar Heels explosive offense.

Prediction: Duke 81, North Carolina 78

Game of the Week: Tennessee at Mississippi Sttae

Jeff Borzello — Sat, 02 Feb 2008 07:45:22 -0800

Game of the Week: No. 7 Tennessee at Mississippi State (Saturday, 7:00 PM, ESPN FullCourt/Regional TV)

With January on its way out and February just starting, it’s time for the best two-month stretch of the sports calendar to begin. From here on out, nearly every game matters, whether it is for at-large considerations, conference title races and for seeding. Since it’s only the midpoint for many conferences, most leagues are still up for grabs. This weekend features plenty of conference clashes, including two Pac-10 showdowns in Stanford at Washington State, and Arizona at UCLA, while two of the Big 12’s best collide as Baylor takes on Texas. However, in the SEC, teams from opposite divisions play each other only once every year, so it’s definitely a treat – and “Game of the Week” – when East leader Tennessee has to go on the road and face once-beaten West leader Mississippi State.

Tennessee Team Breakdown

Tennessee came into the season as the heavy favorite to win the SEC, but struggled a little bit to open the season, getting obliterated by 19 on a neutral court against Tennessee. Since then, though, the Volunteers have been one of the best teams in the country, winning 13 of their last 14 games, with the lone loss at Kentucky. They own wins over Xavier, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Vanderbilt, West Virginia and Mississippi. UT, the nation’s top-ranked team in the RPI, is ranked No. 12 in offensive efficiency and No. 24 in defensive efficiency.

The Volunteers have one of the deepest, most athletic squads in the country. It starts on the perimeter with All-America candidate Chris Lofton, a senior guard who had struggled shooting the ball this season before knocking down 17 of 32 three-point shots in his last three games. Flanking him is JaJuan Smith, a very good scorer and tremendous defensive player. Smith plays the passing lanes unbelievably well and has very quick hands. The two-headed point guard of Ramar Smtih and Jordan Howell combines to average 15.3 points, 3.8 rebounds and 6.3 assists and just 3.2 turnovers per game. Smith is more of a scorer and playmaker, while Howell is a heady player who doesn’t turn the ball over. Former Arizona transfer J.P. Prince is the team’s fourth leading scorer since becoming eligible in mid-December.

Up front, Tyler Smith has made an immediate impact after coming over from Iowa and contributes in a variety of ways. He leads the team in rebounds and assists, and is third in scoring; he might be the most indispensable player on the entire Vols’ roster. Wayne Chism is a good inside-outside scorer who needs to get tougher down low. His scoring is inconsistent, but he has improved as a rebounder throughout the course of the season. Duke Crews missed nine games due to a heart condition, but he is athletic and can finish around the rim. Freshman rebounder Brian Williams has seen increased minutes lately in Crews’ absence, while Ryan Childress is a decent inside-outside option.

Mississippi State Team Breakdown

Mississippi State rode its late-season success last year to a preseason top-25 ranking heading into this season. However, the Bulldogs started just 5-5 in the non-conference, losing to Clemson and Miami (Fl.) at home as well as Miami (Ohio), Southern Illinois and South Alabama. They have since won nine of their last 10, including a 20-point pasting of Mississippi last weekend. The lone loss was Wednesday night on the road against Arkansas. MSU is 5-1 in the SEC so far, and looks like the favorite in the SEC West. It is ranked No. 82 in offensive efficiency and No. 6 at the other end of the floor.

In the backcourt, the Bulldogs are led by one of the best all-around players in the country, 6-4 jack-of-all-trades Jamont Gordon. He is ranked No. 6 in the SEC in scoring, No. 13 in rebounding and No. 5 in assists. He has also cut down on his turnovers, which was a major problem in the past. Joining him on the perimeter are sophomores Barry Stewart and Ben Hansbrough. Stewart is a very solid double-figure scorer who has struggled with his three-point shot in SEC play, while Hansbrough takes care of the ball and can knock down outside shots. However, he was diagnosed with mono last week and could miss the Tennessee game. If he is out, Phil Turner, who is averaging over 30 minutes per game in the last eight contests, will start. Riley Benock is the team’s best three-point shooter, hitting seven of his last 13 outside attempts.

Up front, Mississippi State has one of the best duos in the SEC in senior Charles Rhodes and sophomore Jarvis Varnado. Rhodes has the ability to be a premier big man, although he had battled bouts of inconsistency and lackadaisical play in the past. He is very effective once he gets the ball down low. Varnado has become a national story over the past few weeks, due to his tremendous shot-blocking ability. He leads the country in blocked shots and is No. 3 in the SEC in rebounds. Varnado alters entire game plans as a result of his prowess in the paint. He had back-to-back 10-block games earlier this month, and is averaging 10.7 points, 10.7 rebounds and 6.0 blocks in the past six games before a disappointing performance against Arkansas. Former Louisville transfer Brian Johnson provides rebounding off the bench.

Game Analysis and Prediction

Although Tennessee remains the SEC favorite in most circles across the country, a loss here would give them their second loss of the league and drop them back in the standings. It will be a match-up of contrasting styles, as Tennessee loves to push the ball in transition for fast-break baskets and force turnovers on the defensive end with its non-stop pressure. The Volunteers shoot a lot of three-pointers and don’t often score many back-to-the-basket points. They are also adept at getting to the basket when defenders overplay the three-pointer. Mississippi State is second in the nation in field-goal percentage defense and blocked shots per game, and is also in the top-30 in rebound margin. The Bulldogs don’t force many turnovers and would much rather play in the half-court than an up-and-down affair. They contest nearly every shot, both inside and outside the arc, and don’t allow many second opportunities.

If Tennessee is going to walk into Starkville and the harsh confines of Humphrey Coliseum and come out with a win, it is going to need to do several things. In fact, of the elite teams, the Volunteers might be the only one that needs so many things to go their way in order to win. First, Tennessee has to impose its style of play on Mississippi State. The Volunteers want to push the ball at every opportunity, while MSU will attempt to make it a half-court game. The Volunteers have more athletes and much more depth than the Bulldogs, and would have a huge advantage if this game is played in the 80s. Secondly, if it is a half-court game, Tennessee needs to knock down its three-pointers and run its offense. The Vols become overly reliant on the three-ball at times, whether it is Chris Lofton, any of the Smiths, or even Wayne Chism. However, in this game, it would suit Tennessee to spread the floor and attempt to take the Bulldogs off the dribble. If Chism, Tyler Smith and co. can draw Jarvis Varnado and the MSU bigs away from the basket, driving lanes and penetration opportunities will open up going towards the lane. Additionally, MSU defends the three very well, so Tennessee will have to hit the open ones. Lastly, Tennessee will have to slow down Charles Rhodes and Varnado inside and keep the Bulldogs off the glass. The Volunteers are one of the worst defensive-rebounding teams in the country and don’t have the size to stop skilled big guys. If MSU dominates the paint and is not forced to make three-pointers, Tennessee could be in trouble.

On the other side, if Mississippi State is to pull off the top-10 upset at home, it will have to play arguably its best game of the year. More specifically, the main thing it can’t do is get caught-up in Tennessee’s transition game. Mississippi State can’t run with the Volunteers, and the Bulldogs could get run out of the building if they try to play a fast-break contest. They need to break the Tennessee press and then either get baskets if they have an advantage or slow it down and run their offense. Forcing plays that aren’t there will only hurt them. Defensively, the Bulldogs will have to contest Tennessee’s three-pointers but also stay in front of dribble-penetration. Gambling on the defensive end won’t make a difference; Tennessee is exceptional with the ball. Despite the pace UT plays at, it leads the country in assists and assist-to-turnover ratio. If the Volunteers have open jumpshots and driving lanes, it will cancel out the shot-blocking and size advantage that Mississippi State has. Lastly, Mississippi State will have to take advantage of its size on the offensive end. It starts in the backcourt with Jamont Gordon. He is too big and strong for any of the Volunteers’ guards. He has to take the ball into the paint and finish around the rim, or force Tennessee to foul him. Similarly, Rhodes needs to get enough touches inside to make a difference. He is one of the best big men in the SEC and will have the opportunity to take-over against the average post defenders of Tennessee. UT is awful at defending two-pointers and grabbing defensive rebounds; MSU is suited to exploit that.

This game is going to come down to which team can impose its tempo on the opponent. If the game is in the high 70s or 80s, Tennessee will get an edge because of its athletes and depth. Conversely, if the game is in the 60s or low 70s, the advantage goes to Mississippi State and its size and half-court defense. With MSU playing its best basketball of the season – and the fact the game is in Starkville – I’m going with the Bulldogs.

Prediction: Mississippi State 72, Tennessee 68