The Pre-Madness Begins

Tom Stephenson — Sun, 25 Feb 2007 00:49:59 -0500

For those of us who can't wait the three weeks until Selection Sunday, well, we've got those pesky conference tournaments to tide us over. Eight conferences ended their regular seasons today and now head into the single-elimination free-for-all that will determine who represents that conference in the NCAA tournament.

Some people hate the conference tournaments, as in all but a few cases, they can virtually negate the regular season (say, when some 11-18 team wins three games in three days to steal an NCAA bid from the regular season champ.) Even the "power" conferences sometimes have a team that would not otherwise be an NCAA team win out to snatch an NCAA bid, often from one of that conference's own members.

Here's a rundown of the eight conferences that have finished the regular season.

Atlantic Sun
Current ranking: 27
Number of teams: 8 (*Kennesaw St. and North Florida not eligible)
March 1-3 at Johnson City, TN (East Tennessee State)

First-round matchups:
(1)ETSU (22-8, 16-2) vs. (8)Stetson (11-19, 6-12)
(4)Lipscomb (17-12, 11-7) vs. (5)Mercer (13-16, 8-10)
(2)Belmont (20-9, 14-4) vs. (7)Gardner-Webb (9-20, 7-11)
(3)Jacksonville (15-13, 11-7) vs. (6)Campbell (13-16, 7-11)

The favorite: ETSU. Duh. They won the conference by two games and get the tournament on their home floor to boot. The A-Sun had actually planned in advance that ETSU would host the conference tournament; it just so happened that they won the regular season as well.
Sleeper: Belmont's a 20-win team and probably represents the best challenge to ETSU.
At-large hopes: None. This is a one-bid league.
Seeding: Probably a 16-seed. ETSU and Belmont can hope for a 15 with a couple of upsets in conference tournaments. Any of the bottom four seeds would almost certainly be play-in game fodder.

Big South
Current ranking: 29
Number of teams: 8
First round February 27 at campus sites; semifinals March 1 at top seed; finals March 3 at highest remaining seed

First-round matchups:
(8)Charleston Southern (8-21, 2-12) at (1)Winthrop (25-4, 14-0)
(5)UNC-Asheville (11-18, 6-8) at (4)Coastal Carolina (15-14, 7-7)
(7)Radford (8-21, 3-11) at (2)High Point (21-9, 11-3)
(6)VMI (12-18, 5-9) at (3)Liberty (14-16, 8-6)

Favorite: Calling Winthrop the favorite is an understatement. They ran the table in the regular season, they'll be playing on their home court, and they've won it six of the last eight years.
Sleeper: Anybody other than Winthrop would be a shock. High Point is the only other team in the conference with a winning record against D-I competition.
At-large hopes: Winthrop has a slim hope of getting an at-large bid if they lose in the finals, but I emphasize slim. Any loss here would be a bad loss, and it would be on their home court. The committee probably wouldn't forgive them for that.
Seeding: Winthrop is a 12 or 13 seed. Anybody else is a 16, and High Point is probably the only one who'd avoid the play-in.

Colonial
Current ranking: 13
Number of teams: 12
March 2-5 at Richmond, VA

First-round byes: (1)VCU (24-6, 16-2); (2)Old Dominion (23-7, 15-3); (3)Hofstra (22-8, 14-4); (4)Drexel (22-7, 13-5)
First-round matchups:
(8)William & Mary (15-14, 8-10) vs. (9)Georgia State (10-19, 5-13)
(5)Northeastern (12-18, 9-9) vs. (12)Delaware (5-25, 3-15)
(7)Towson (14-16, 8-10) vs. (10)NC-Wilmington (7-21, 4-14)
(6)George Mason (15-14, 9-9) vs. (11)James Madison (7-22, 4-14)

Favorite: Hard to anoint a favorite, though VCU, playing basically at home and with the #1 seed, is probably it.
Sleeper: None of the top four would really surprise me, so I'll go with everybody's favorite George Mason. But they went 0-6 against the top four in the regular season.
At-large hopes: Old Dominion probably has the best case for an at-large bid, with an RPI of 37 and a road win over Georgetown. VCU won the conference but could be done in by a weak non-conference schedule. Drexel has the opposite problem, with some non-conference heft but a fourth-place conference finish.
Seeding: ODU might make the 8/9 game with a tournament win, Drexel a 10 or 11 seed. VCU or Hofstra would probably be a 12 seed. George Mason would be a 15; anybody else in this league would be a 16 seed.

Horizon League
Current ranking: 12
Number of teams: 9
First round at higher seeds, Feb. 27. Quarterfinals and semifinals at #1 seed (Wright State), March 2-3. Finals at higher seed, March 6.

The Horizon's setup is freaking daffy, so I'll try to lay it out as best I can.
First round
(9)Cleveland State (10-20, 3-13) at (4)Wisconsin-Green Bay (16-14, 7-9)
(8)Detroit (11-18, 6-10) at (5)Youngstown State (13-16, 7-9)
(7)Wisc.-Milwaukee (9-21, 6-10) at (6)Illinois-Chicago (13-17, 7-9)

Quarterfinals
9/4 vs. 8/5
7/6 vs. (3)Loyola-Chicago (20-10, 10-6)

Semifinals
9/4/8/5 vs. (1)Wright State (21-9, 13-3)
7/6/3 vs. (2)Butler (26-5, 13-3)

Favorite: Surprisingly, it's Wright State, who gets the tournament at home and has already beaten Butler. Butler winning would surprise nobody, though.
Sleeper: Loyola-Chicago. The Ramblers are coming in on a roll (though their seven-game win streak was snapped today) and have already beaten Butler once.
At-large hopes: Butler is a virtual certainty, but if I were the Bulldogs I wouldn't want to give the committee an excuse to leave me out. Wright State has a case (tying for the regular season title) but they're weighed down by a weak overall profile (four sub-200 losses, just one top 50 win.)
Seeding: Butler is probably about a 6 seed, though they could drop to the 8/9 game with a semifinal loss. Wright State or Loyola would be a 13 or 14 seed.

Mid-Continent
Current ranking: 22
Number of teams: 8
March 3-6 at Tulsa, OK (Oral Roberts)

First-round matchups
(1)Oral Roberts (20-10, 12-2) vs. (8)Centenary (10-20, 3-11)
(4)IUPUI (14-14, 7-7) vs. (5)Southern Utah (16-13, 6-8)
(2)Oakland (17-13, 10-4) vs. (7)Western Illinois (7-22, 3-11)
(3)Valparaiso (16-14, 9-5) vs. (6)UMKC (11-19, 6-8)

Favorite: Oral Roberts. As with ETSU and VCU, it just so happened they're the #1 seed; the conference doesn't guarantee the regular season champ the right to play at home.
Sleeper: In the non-Oral Roberts division, Oakland probably has the best shot after getting an OT win over the Eagles to close out the regular season.
At-large hopes: None. This is a one-bid league.
Seeding: ORU looks like a 14 seed; anybody else will get a 16 seed.

Missouri Valley
Current ranking: 6
Number of teams: 10
March 2-5 at St. Louis, MO

First-round matchups
(8)Evansville (14-16, 6-12) vs. (9)Drake (16-14, 6-12)
(7)Illinois St. (15-15, 6-12) vs. (10)Indiana St. (12-17, 5-13)
Quarterfinals
8/9 vs. (1)Southern Illinois (25-5, 15-3)
(4)Bradley (20-11, 10-8) vs. (5)Northern Iowa (18-12, 9-9)
7/10 vs. (2)Creighton (19-10, 13-5)
(3)Missouri St. (21-9, 12-6) vs. (6)Wichita St. (17-13, 8-10)

Favorite: It's going to be a bloodbath, but SIU, who won the regular season by two games, should be considered the favorite.
Sleeper: Really, nothing would surprise me in the Valley. Wichita State and Northern Iowa both slumped down the stretch, but either one could make some noise in the tournament.
At-large hopes: Southern Illinois is beyond a lock. Creighton, Missouri State, and Bradley will be sweating if they don't win the auto bid, but any of the three can make a case for an at-large bid. If there's enough madness and SIU wins, the Valley could be a one-bid league.
Seeding: SIU could go as high as a 3-seed with a win here. Creighton, Missouri St. and Bradley would probably all fall in the 7-10 range. Wichita St. and Northern Iowa would be 12 or 13 seeds if they win the conference tournament.

Ohio Valley
Current ranking: 25
Number of teams: 8 (three didn't qualify)
First round Feb. 27 at higher seed, semis and final March 2-3 at Nashville.

First-round matchups
(8)Tennessee St. (12-19, 8-12) at (1)Austin Peay (19-10, 16-4)
(5)Samford (15-15, 12-8) at (4)Murray State (16-13, 13-7)
(7)Morehead St. (12-17, 8-12) at (2)E. Kentucky (18-11, 13-7)
(6)SE Missouri St. (11-19, 9-11) at (3)Tennessee Tech (18-12, 13-7)

Favorite: Austin Peay won the conference by three games. But they also got swept by seventh-place Morehead State.
Sleeper: Murray State always seems to be a player in the OVC and went 8-2 down the stretch.
At-large hopes: None. This is a one-bid league.
Seeding: Austin Peay may have torpedoed its chances of avoiding a 16 seed with a home loss to Morehead to close out the season, though they could be forgiven if enough favorites lose. Anybody else will probably be a 16 as well.

Sun Belt
Current ranking: 20
Number of teams: 13
First round Feb. 28 at campus sites. Final three rounds March 4-6 at Lafayette, LA.

First-round byes: (1)South Alabama (20-10, 13-5); (2)Arkansas St. (16-14, 11-7); (3)Western Kentucky (21-10, 12-6)
First-round matchups:
(9)MTSU (13-16, 8-10) at (8)Troy (13-16, 8-10)
(13)Denver (4-24, 3-15) at (4)UL-Monroe (17-13, 11-7)
(12)UL-Lafayette (9-20, 7-11) at (5)North Texas (19-10, 10-8)
(10)UALR (13-16, 8-10) at (7)New Orleans (13-16, 9-9)
(11)FIU (12-16, 7-11) at (6)FAU (15-14, 10-8)

Favorite: Despite the seeds, it's actually Western Kentucky, the preseason favorite who finished just one game back of South Alabama in the standings.
Sleeper: Parity is the name of the game in the Sun Belt; just six games separate first place from twelfth place. Arkansas State snagged a first-round bye with a four-game winning streak to close the regular season and is the hot team coming in.
At-large hopes: None. WKU's non-conference profile was strong enough to merit a look, but their performance in conference torpedoed that.
Seeding: WKU would probably be a 14, South Alabama a 15. Anybody else is probably a 16.

Conference tournaments

The Pre-Madness Begins