Capsules

2008 NCAA Tournament Capsule: Texas A&M

Joel Welser — Sun, 16 Mar 2008 00:57:59 -0400

Texas A&M Aggies

Big 12 (24-10, 8-8)

Seed: #9

West Region

RPI: 39

Big Wins: 1/30 Texas (80-63), 2/2 Oklahoma (60-52), 3/5 at Baylor (71-57)

Bad Losses: 1/16 at Texas Tech (53-68), 2/16 Oklahoma State (54-59), 2/23 Nebraska (59-65)

Last NCAA Appearance: 2007, Sweet Sixteen loss to Memphis

Coach: Mark Turgeon (2-1 in 1 NCAA appearance)

Probable Starters:

Donald Sloan, Sophomore, Guard, 9.4 ppg, 3.4 apg, 4.0 rpg

Dominique Kirk, Senior, Guard, 8.6 ppg, 3.5 apg, 3.4 rpg

Josh Carter, Junior, Guard, 11.9 ppg, 4.0 rpg

Joseph Jones, Senior, Forward, 10.4 ppg, 5.1 rpg

DeAndre Jordan, Freshman, Center, 8.2 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 1.3 bpg

Key Roleplayers:

Derrick Roland, Sophomore, Guard, 5.8 ppg, 1.1 apg

Bryan Davis, Sophomore, Forward, 8.6 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.1 bpg

Why They Can Surprise:

Texas A&M has a couple dominating big men in senior Joseph Jones and freshman DeAndre Jordan. Both are solid post scorers and Jones will even occasionally step outside and hit a three-ball. That is good for stretching out the defense, but sometimes Jones will be a little too much perimeter orientated. Jordan, a seven-footer, is a better shot blocker and can be an intimidating presence on the defensive end.

The Aggies should play through their big men a lot more than they do, but they still do a decent job sharing the ball in general. It is just that many times that sharing the ball results in a bad shot. Dominique Kirk and Donald Sloan are both decent ballhandlers and average over three assists per game. Kirk spends more time on the perimeter, but Sloan does a decent job using his strength and speed to get to the basket.

Why They Can Disappoint:

Usually Texas A8M will score quite a few points, but they have to work really hard for most of them. This is not a team that will get easy buckets off steals or make a lot of three-pointers. Since they can be unwilling to get the ball inside to their big men at times, the team does not even get to the free-throw line very often. And when they do they are one of the worst shooting teams from the charity stripe in the nation. The lack of depth can be a concern as well. Yet, foul trouble is rarely a problem in the frontcourt and the Aggies have a quality sixth man in 6-9 forward Bryan Davis.

Who To Watch:

Do-it-all wing Josh Carter is the team’s top scorer. He is not the type of player that will score 25 points, but he is pretty consistent game in and game out. Carter is easily the biggest threat from long range on the team, but he will use his 6-7 frame to find shots around the basket. His size and rebounding ability is one reason why Texas A&M is one of the best rebounding teams in the nation, but Carter might have to become more of a leader on the floor to help his team through their all too often scoring droughts.

By the Numbers:

Scoring Offense: 71.8 (118^th in nation, 6^th in conference)

Scoring Defense: 61.4 (32, 3)

Field-Goal Percentage: 46.6 (55, 2)

Field-Goal Defense: 38.7 (12, 2)

Three-Point Field Goals Per Game: 5.8 (244, 10)

Three-Point Field-Goal Percentage: 35.4 (151, 5)

Free-Throw Percentage: 63.5 (306, 12)

Rebound Margin: 7.3 (9, 3)

Assists Per Game: 13.4 (158, 6)

Turnovers Per Game: 12.8 (53, 3)

Joel’s Bracket Says: First Round loss to BYU

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2008 NCAA Tournament Capsule: Villanova

Joel Welser — Sun, 16 Mar 2008 00:55:37 -0400

Villanova Wildcats

Big East (20-12, 9-9)

Seed: #12

Midwest Region

RPI: 49

Big Wins: 1/6 Pittsburgh (64-63), 2/20 West Virginia (78-56), 2/23 Connecticut (67-65)

Bad Losses: 1/3 at DePaul (76-84), 1/12 at Cincinnati (66-69), 1/23 at Rutgers (68-80)

Coach: Jay Wright

Probable Starters:

Corey Fisher, Freshman, Guard, 9.1 ppg, 2.8 apg

Scottie Reynolds, Sophomore, Guard, 15.6 ppg, 3.3 apg

Dwayne Anderson, Junior, Guard, 6.4 ppg, 4.9 rpg

Antonio Pena, Freshman, Forward, 7.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg

Dante Cunningham, Junior, Forward, 10.4 ppg, 6.5 rpg

Key Roleplayers:

Malcolm Grant, Freshman, Guard, 5.8 ppg, 1.4 apg

Corey Stokes, Freshman, Guard, 6.1 ppg, 2.5 rpg

Reggie Redding, Sophomore, Guard, 4.7 ppg, 2.5 rpg

Shane Clark, Junior, Forward, 7.2 ppg, 4.3 rpg

Casiem Drummond, Sophomore, Center, 5.2 ppg, 4.9 rpg

Why They Can Surprise:

Villanova has three talented scorers who can put up points in a hurry. Scottie Reynolds is the star and will take all the big shots for the Wildcats. He is a decent outside shooter, but more importantly Reynolds will get to the basket and finish. He gets to the charity stripe nearly six times per game and hits them with a 78.3 percent frequency. As if his scoring was not enough, Reynolds leads the team averaging 3.3 assists per game and will hit the glass quite effectively.

Freshman Corey Fisher has not looked like a freshman most of this season. He is not very efficient, but he can score in a hurry. Dante Cunningham, a 6-8 forward, is a match-up nightmare for opposing coaches. Cunningham is deceptively quick and will have little problem beating an opposing big man off the dribble. He has also developed into a decent low-post scoring threat and will use his strength and quickness to be effective in the paint.

Why They Can Disappoint:

The young backcourt might have a ton of talent, but they take some bad shots too. The team as a whole shoots just 42.9 percent from the floor and 34.2 percent from long range. Having the confidence to hit every shot you take is one thing, but forcing up a three will likely just turn into a wasted possession. Fisher hits just 33 percent of his long balls, but players like Shane Clark, Dwayne Anderson and Corey Stokes are hovering around the 30 percent range and will still chuck up some tough shots.

Who To Watch:

Nova commits a lot of fouls and luckily they have a lot of talented depth sitting on the bench ready to come in and commit some more fouls. Ten players average at least 13 minutes per game. Twelve of those players have even started a few games this year. The only player who has not started is Stokes and he has had a great finish to the season and will be a major force in the tournament. Not only does the depth help keep individuals out of foul trouble, but it has also kept the key players fresh down the stretch of the season and having fresh legs is huge in March.

By the Numbers:

Scoring Offense: 72.8 (99^th in nation, 8^th in conference)

Scoring Defense: 69.3 (189, 11)

Field-Goal Percentage: 42.9 (223, 12)

Field-Goal Defense: 43.8 (175, 12)

Three-Point Field Goals Per Game: 7.1 (128, 8)

Three-Point Field-Goal Percentage: 34.2 (104, 8)

Free-Throw Percentage: 72.3 (70, 2)

Rebound Margin: 2.7 (86, 7)

Assists Per Game: 13.7 (139, 12)

Turnovers Per Game: 14.2 (157, 12)

Joel’s Bracket Says: Sweet Sixteen loss to Kansas

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2008 NCAA Tournament Capsule: South Alabama

Joel Welser — Sun, 16 Mar 2008 00:54:04 -0400

South Alabama Jaguars

Sun Belt Conference (26-6, 16-2)

Seed: #10

East Region

RPI: 37

Big Wins: 12/15 Mississippi State (71-67), 1/5 Western Kentucky (65-61), 2/21 at Western Kentucky (69-64)

Bad Losses: 11/22 vs Miami Ohio (59-64), 1/31 at North Texas (68-70), 2/14 at Middle Tennessee State (70-76)

Last NCAA Appearance: 2006, First Round loss to Florida

Coach: Ronnie Arrow (1-2 in 2 NCAA appearances)

Probable Starters:

Daon Merritt, Senior, Guard, 11.5 ppg, 5.6 apg

Domonic Tilford, Junior, Guard, 12.7 ppg, 2.1 apg

Demetric Bennett, Senior, Guard, 20.1 ppg, 2.6 apg, 5.9 rpg

Brandon Davis, Junior, Forward, 10.9 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 1.3 bpg

DeAndre Coleman, Junior, Forward, 7.8 ppg, 7.8 rpg

Key Roleplayers:

B.J. Ford, Junior, Forward, 2.1 ppg

Daniel Hayles, Junior, Forward, 3.4ppg, 2.2 rpg

Ronald Douglas, Junior, Center, 6.6 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 1.1 bpg

Why They Can Surprise:

In college basketball, three-point shooting is the great equalizer when you are outmatched physically and South Alabama has a few dangerous long range shooters. And none are more dangerous than senior Demetric Bennett. Bennett hits over 41 percent of his shots from downtown and will hit nearly three a game. It is a bad game for Bennett when he fails to reach the 20 point mark and he can explode on any night, just like when he scored 39 points against Mississippi State in December.

Domonic Tilford is nearly as prolific as Bennett from beyond the arc. The former Cincinnati Bearcat will not look to shoot as much as Bennett, but he still averages 12.7 points per game. Daon Merritt adds another scoring threat from the perimeter. The 5-8 point guard will use his speed to be a surprisingly effective scorer getting to the basket.

Why They Can Disappoint:

South Alabama will not be the biggest team playing in the postseason. Tilford and Merritt are both under 6-0 and their shot blocker, Brandon Davis, is only 6-6. Davis is an effective scorer around the basket, and a superb rebounder, but scoring and rebounding will become much more difficult when he is matched up against an athletic big man. DeAndre Coleman, at 6-7, mans the five spot. Another former Bearcat, Coleman is a monster on the glass and a decent scorer who can step out and hit the mid-range jumper. At 233 pounds, Coleman has enough girth to battle with taller centers, but South Alabama’s impressive rebounding skills might be neutralized against teams outside of the Sun Belt.

Who To Watch:

Coach Ronnie Arrow does not have an extremely deep bench to work with, but the group does not lack in experience. B.J. Ford played at Eastern Michigan before heading to Mobile. The 6-0 junior is listed as a forward and has started over half the games this season. He will not fill up the stat sheet, but he plays solid defense and has plenty of versatility. Daniel Hayles has had a couple decent games this year, but again, he will not have a lot of big games. Center Ronald Douglas might be the most important player coming off the bench. He must keep up the scoring and rebounding production when Davis or Coleman run into foul trouble or need a rest.

By the Numbers:

Scoring Offense: 75.5 (59^th in nation, 4^th in conference)

Scoring Defense: 64.9 (85, 3)

Field-Goal Percentage: 47.5 (29, 1)

Field-Goal Defense: 41.7 (78, 2)

Three-Point Field Goals Per Game: 6.7 (161, 6)

Three-Point Field-Goal Percentage: 36.5 (110, 5)

Free-Throw Percentage: 71.2 (105, 7)

Rebound Margin: 6.4 (14, 1)

Assists Per Game: 15.7 (43, 1)

Turnovers Per Game: 13.9 (130, 4)

Joel’s Bracket Says: First Round loss to Butler

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2008 NCAA Tournament Capsule: Oregon

Joel Welser — Sun, 16 Mar 2008 00:52:42 -0400

Oregon Ducks

Pac-10 (18-13, 9-9)

Seed: #9

South Region

RPI: 58

Big Wins: 11/29 at Kansas State (80-77), 1/5 at Arizona (84-74), 1/13 Stanford (71-66)

Bad Losses: 12/15 at Nebraska (79-88), 12/22 vs Oakland (62-68), 1/17 at Washington (70-78)

Last NCAA Appearance: 2007, Elite Eight loss to Florida

Coach: Ernie Kent (6-5 in 5 NCAA appearances)

Probable Starters:

Tajuan Porter, Sophomore, Guard, 13.8 ppg, 2.4 apg

Bryce Taylor, Senior, Guard, 13.0 ppg, 3.7 rpg

Malik Hairston, Senior, Guard, 16.1 ppg, 4.8 rpg

Joevan Catron, Sophomoire, Forward, 9.0 ppg, 5.8 rpg

Marty Leunen, Senior, Forward, 15.2 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 2.8 apg

Key Roleplayers:

Kamyron Brown, Freshman, Guard, 4.4 ppg, 3.2 apg

LeKendric Longmire, Freshman, Guard, 3.8 ppg, 1.5 rpg

Chuchill Odia, Junior, Guard, 1.8 ppg, 1.4 rpg

Why They Can Surprise:

Oregon certainly does not lack in perimeter weapons. Malik Hairston is dangerous from anywhere on the floor and can approach the 30 point plateau on any given day. However, Hairston also disappears at times and has about a half dozen games in which he failed to score double-digits. Even when Hairston fails to score, it does not mean the Ducks are in trouble. Hairston will do more than score and there are plenty of other options who would be more than happy to take some of Hairston’s points.

The diminutive Tajuan Porter is not shooting anywhere close to what he was last year from behind the arc, but the sophomore is still a very dangerous outside shooter. At 5-6, Porter can sneak into the paint and score some points, but he will spend most of his time jacking up three’s, for better or for worse. Bryce Taylor is a lot like Hairston, but slightly less effective. He can hit the three-ball, grab some boards, get to the basket and put up tons of points in a hurry.

Why They Can Disappoint:

While the team has five players who can take over a game, the Ducks lack a true floor leader like they had last year with Aaron Brooks. In Brooks’ absence an already average defense has gotten worse and Oregon will not win any battle of intangibles. On paper, the Ducks still rarely commit turnovers and share the ball very well, but Brooks’ absence is felt in a multitude of other ways. When Brooks was around, Oregon was a great rebounding team despite playing four guards much of the time. Now they have a bigger, more traditional, lineup, but the rebounding numbers are down. It does not have to make sense, but this is a team that pulled together for a magnificent year last season and fell apart to reach mediocrity this season much of this season.

Who To Watch:

And that mediocrity has happened despite Maarty Leunen. The 6-9 senior has had a magnificent year, averaging 15.2 points and 9.2 rebounds. He hits nearly two three-pointers per game and knocks them down at almost 51 percent. Not everyday does a 6-9 forward who has over nine rebounds per game, hit over 50 percent from beyond the arc. Leunen even passes very well from inside and out. Oregon has the ability and talent to beat anybody on any given day. Yet, they can pretty much lose to anybody just as easily, especially away from the friendly confines of McArthur Court.

By the Numbers:

Scoring Offense: 76.8 (39^th in nation, 2^nd in conference)

Scoring Defense: 72.4 (254, 9)

Field-Goal Percentage: 48.5 (13, 1)

Field-Goal Defense: 44.3 (208, 6)

Three-Point Field Goals Per Game: 8.7 (26, 1)

Three-Point Field-Goal Percentage: 40.1 (11, 1)

Free-Throw Percentage: 68.9 (167, 7)

Rebound Margin: 1.9 (115, 5)

Assists Per Game: 14.9 (76, 4)

Turnovers Per Game: 12.6 (43, 4)

Joel’s Bracket Says: Second Round loss to Memphis

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2008 NCAA Tournament Capsule: Texas-Arlington

Joel Welser — Sun, 16 Mar 2008 00:50:48 -0400

Texas Arlington Mavericks

Southland (21-11, 7-9)

Seed: #16

South Region

RPI: 144

Big Wins: 11/21 North Texas (72-64), 3/1 at Stephen F. Austin (75-65), 3/14 vs Sam Houston State (72-66)

Bad Losses: 1/10 at Central Arkansas (68-70), 2/16 McNeese State (69-74), 3/8 at Texas State (86-97)

Last NCAA Appearance: none

Coach: Scott Cross (First NCAA appearance)

Probable Starters:

Rog’er Guignard, Sophomore, Guard, 13.0 ppg, 2.8 apg

Rod Epps, Senior, Guard, 8.4 ppg, 2.6 apg

Tommy Moffitt, Sophomore, Forward, 5.9 ppg, 5.0 rpg

Larry Posey, Senior, Forward, 8.5 ppg, 6.1 rpg

Jermaine Griffin, Senior, Center, 12.2 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 1.1 bpg

Key Roleplayers:

Cardell Hunter, Sophomore, Guard, 4.2 ppg, 2.9 apg

Jeremy Smith, Freshman, Guard, 3.0 ppg, 1.2 apg

Anthony Vereen, Junior, Forward, 13.6 ppg, 4.8 rpg

Trey Parker, Freshman, Forward, 2.3 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 1.2 bpg

Why They Can Surprise:

The strength of Texas Arlington is in the frontcourt. Anthony Vereen, the team’s leading scorer, usually comes in off the bench and that goes to show how much talent the frontcourt actually has. The 6-7 forward has the strength to battle in the paint, but he is most effective getting to the basket. Like Vereen, Tommy Moffitt can stretch out the defense with his outside shooting. Those two will hit the glass effectively and have helped the Mavericks become one of the best rebounding teams in the Southland Conference, but it is the bigger bodies under the basket that help the most.

Larry Posey might only be 6-5, but he will use his 250 pound frame to pound in the paint. The senior has developed into a solid scoring threat under the basket and is a decent rebounder and defender. At 6-9, center Jermaine Griffin is the tallest player on the team. He averages 12.2 points per game and a team high 7.0 rebounds. On the defensive side of the floor, Griffin is a decent shot blocker and can make it difficult for the opponents to get into the paint.

Why They Can Disappoint:

With all the forwards who have the ball in their hands, it leads to some problems from the charity stripe. Vereen is a solid free-throw shooter, but the rest of the frontcourt is hovering around the 60 percent mark, or worse. UTA will need every point possible to pull off an upset and every free-throw will be very important. Every possession will be important as well and the Mavericks commit 17.4 turnovers per game.

Who To Watch:

Texas Arlington does have three perimeter players who can handle the ball, but they will have to do a better job of keeping the turnovers to a minimum. Rog’er Guignard is a superb scorer and knocks down about three shots from beyond the arc per contest. Rod Epps is a decent scoring threat, but his greatest asset is using his quickness to get to the basket and creating shots for his teammates. Cardell Hunter will not score like Guignard and Epps, but he is arguably the best passer on the team and will be on the floor when the Mavericks need another guard who can handle the ball.

By the Numbers:

Scoring Offense: 73.5 (85^th in nation, 4^th in conference)

Scoring Defense: 68.1 (152, 6)

Field-Goal Percentage: 47.8 (26, 1)

Field-Goal Defense: 39.7 (25, 4)

Three-Point Field Goals Per Game: 6.1 (202, 7)

Three-Point Field-Goal Percentage: 34.7 (180, 4)

Free-Throw Percentage: 65.8 (273, 8)

Rebound Margin: 3.9 (52, 4)

Assists Per Game: 14.4 (101, 5)

Turnovers Per Game: 17.4 (307, 6)

Joel’s Bracket Says: First Round loss to Memphis

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2008 NCAA Tournament Capsule: Georgia

Joel Welser — Sun, 16 Mar 2008 00:49:02 -0400

Georgia Bulldogs

Southeastern Conference (17-16, 4-12)

Seed: #14

West Region

RPI: 89

Big Wins: 3/15 vs Kentucky (60-56), 3/15 vs Mississippi State (64-60), 3/16 vs Arkansas ()

Bad Losses: 12/20 vs East Tennessee State (58-76), 12/21 vs Tulane (69-70), 3/2 at LSU (64-71)

Last NCAA Appearance: 2002, Second Round loss to Southern Illinois

Coach: Dennis Felton (0-3 in 3 NCAA appearances)

Probable Starters:

Sundiata Gaines, Senior, Guard, 14.8 ppg, 4.1 apg, 6.0 rpg

Billy Humphrey, Junior, Guard, 12.1 ppg, 3.5 rpg

Terrance Woodbury, Junior, Guard, 10.8 ppg, 4.0 rpg

Albert Jackson, Sophomore, Forward, 3.6 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.0 bpg

Dave Bliss, Senior, Center, 7.6 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1.0 bpg

Key Roleplayers:

Zac Swansey, Freshman, Guard, 4.1 ppg, 1.7 apg

Corey Butler, Junior, Guard, 3.1 ppg, 2.2 rpg

Jeremy Price, Freshman, Forward, 8.1 ppg, 4.3 rpg

Why They Can Surprise:

No player on Georgia averages over six rebounds per game, yet the Bulldogs are one of the best rebounding teams in the Southeastern Conference. Six players average at least three rebounds per contest and rebounding by committee has never had such an apt example. The frontcourt certainly does its part on the glass and Jeremy Price, Dave Bliss and Albert Jackson will hit the backboard hard.

Price and Bliss are decent interior scores and will use their big frames to create space for themselves and others in the paint. Jackson is not much of a scorer, but he is a great defender and, along with Bliss, a shot blocking threat. The Bulldogs frontcourt could be more productive scorers than they are and that would certainly open up the shooters on the perimeter and that is where UGA does all of its damage.

Why They Can Disappoint:

Georgia is a perimeter orientated team, but the turnovers and free-throw shooting have become big problems. Sundiata Gaines, Billy Humphrey and Terrance Woodbury are great scorers from the perimeter, but the turnover numbers are not so good. The trio commits about seven turnovers per contest and the team commits 15.1. That number will have to come down drastically if the darlings of the SEC Tournament want to make another improbable tournament run. The free-throw shooting is the other concern. Gaines gets to the charity stripe more than twice as much as anybody else on the team and he shoots under 61 percent from the line.

Who To Watch:

The free-throw shooting is the only spot where Gaines fails to impress. The 6-1 senior leads the team with 14.8 points, 6.0 rebounds, 4.1 assists and 1.8 steals. Gaines’ outside shooting is nothing spectacular and he spends a little too much time hoisting up three pointers instead of getting to the basket, but being able to mix in the occasional long ball does make it easier for him to score in other ways. With Humphrey and Woodbury on the wings, Georgia will do a lot of scoring on the perimeter. At 6-7, Woodbury is a dynamic, yet inconsistent, scorer. He can hit the three point shot, but he is much more effective working above the rim. It is Humphrey who takes the most shots from beyond the arc and when his shot is falling, it opens up space for everybody else.

By the Numbers:

Scoring Offense: 68.8 (178^th in nation, 11^th in conference)

Scoring Defense: 68.1 (153, 4)

Field-Goal Percentage: 44.8 (234, 11)

Field-Goal Defense: 43.2 (144, 6)

Three-Point Field Goals Per Game: 6.0 (214, 11)

Three-Point Field-Goal Percentage: 32.4 (255, 11)

Free-Throw Percentage: 67.7 (210, 6)

Rebound Margin: 3.8 (55, 4)

Assists Per Game: 11.6 (285, 12)

Turnovers Per Game: 15.1 (224, 9)

Joel’s Bracket Says: First Round loss to Xavier

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2008 NCAA Tournament Capsule: Arkansas

Joel Welser — Sun, 16 Mar 2008 00:47:07 -0400

Arkansas Razorbacks

Southeastern Conference (22-11, 9-7)

Seed: #9

East Region

RPI: 35

Big Wins: 1/5 at Baylor (85-78), 1/30 Mississippi State (78-58), 3/1 Vanderbilt (78-73)

Bad Losses: 12/22 Appalachian State (67-74), 1/16 South Carolina (66-70), 1/19 at Georgia (69-82)

Last NCAA Appearance: 2007, First Round loss to USC

Coach: John Pelphrey (0-1 in 1 NCAA appearance)

Probable Starters:

Gary Ervin, Senior, Guard, 9.6 ppg, 3.7 apg

Patrick Beverly, Sophomore, Guard, 12.0 ppg, 2.4 apg, 6.8 rpg

Sonny Weems, Senior, Guard, 14.4 ppg, 2.7 apg, 4.5 rpg

Charles Thomas, Senior, Forward, 9.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg

Steven Hill, Senior, Center, 4.5 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 2.2 bpg

Key Roleplayers:

Stefan Welsh, Sophomore, Guard, 5.4 ppg, 2.2 apg

Vincent Hunter, Senior, Forward, 2.9 ppg, 1.7 rpg

Darian Townes, Senior , Forward, 11.9 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 1.0 bpg

Michael Washington, Sophomore, Forward, 4.4 ppg, 4.0 rpg

Why They Can Surprise:

The size, depth, experience and talent of the Arkansas frontcourt should have made the Razorbacks a very dangerous team the last two seasons. However, consistency has been a major problem. Darian Townes is the most productive scorer of the group. Townes will usually come off the bench, but he still averages nearly 12 points per game despite only seeing the floor for 22 minute per contest. Workhorse Charles Thomas will usually get the starting nod. The 6-8 senior has a decent outside shot, but his field-goal percentage has suffered when he tries to extend his range a little too far.

Seven-footer Steven Hill is a great shot blocker and can score a few points on occasion. His ability to alter shots on the defensive end is a vital attribute for the Razorbacks. The big guys keep coming with sophomore Michael Washington and senior Vincent Hunter. Washington has worked his way into a crowded frontcourt over the last two seasons and has proven to be a solid rebounder.

Why They Can Disappoint:

The big guys keep the team’s field-goal percentage up, but this is not a great shooting team. Sophomore Patrick Beverly has seen his overall shooting numbers decrease after a great freshman season. The good news is Beverly is usually taking smart shots from beyond the arc and will not force as many three’s as he did last year. Wing Sonny Weems is the team’s leading scorer. He can hit the long ball from the wing, but is much more effective getting to the basket. If the outside shot is not falling for Beverly or Weems, the opposition will have a much easier time clogging the lane and stopping the slashers and the big men.

Who To Watch:

Gary Ervin is a lightning quick point guard. His 9.6 points and 3.7 assists per game might be a little disappointing, but Ervin will still create for his teammates and has the ability to take over a game. Ervin is also responsible for keeping the Arkansas offense moving at a fast pace, but still under control. At times, the Razorbacks have been anything but under control and they will not be able to afford a string of poor decisions and bad passes in March.

By the Numbers:

Scoring Offense: 73.3 (87^th in nation, 7^th in conference)

Scoring Defense: 66.0 (106, 3)

Field-Goal Percentage: 46.4 (61, 5)

Field-Goal Defense: 41.2 (56, 3)

Three-Point Field Goals Per Game: 6.0 (214, 10)

Three-Point Field-Goal Percentage: 34.5 (190, 8)

Free-Throw Percentage: 67.3 (228, 7)

Rebound Margin: 4.1 (46, 3)

Assists Per Game: 14.8 (85, 7)

Turnovers Per Game: 15.6 (244, 11)

Joel’s Bracket Says: Second Round loss to North Carolina

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2008 NCAA Tournament Capsule: St. Joseph's

Joel Welser — Sat, 15 Mar 2008 15:37:41 -0400

St. Joseph’s Hawks

Atlantic 10 (21-12, 9-7)

Big Wins: 2/4 Villanova (77-55), 3/6 Xavier (71-66), 3/14 vs Xavier (61-53)

Bad Losses: 12/4 Holy Cross (66-71), 2/18 La Salle (89-90), 2/28 Saint Louis (55-64)

Last NCAA Appearance: 2004, Elite Eight loss to Oklahoma State

Coach: Phil Martelli (6-4 in 4 NCAA appearances)

Probable Starters:

Tasheed Carr, Junior, Guard, 10.9 ppg, 5.6 apg, 4.1 rpg

Darrin Govens, Sophomore, Guard, 9.7 ppg, 2.4 apg

Pat Calathes, Senior, Guard, 17.8 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 2.7 apg, 1.3 bpg

Rob Ferguson, Senior, Forward, 11.6 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 1.2 bpg

Ahmad Nivins, Junior, Forward, 14.4 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 1.2 bpg

Key Roleplayers:

D.J. Rivera, Sophomore, Guard, 4.4 ppg, 1.6 rpg

Garrett Williamson, Sophomore, Guard, 5.4 ppg, 2.7 apg

Why They Can Surprise:

As a team, St. Joseph’s shoots almost 40 percent from three-point land. Pat Calathes, a 6-10 wing, hits over two per game, as does guard Darrin Govens. Unlike Govens, Calathes does a lot more than shoot three’s. Calathes will use his height to create some major mismatches. He has the speed of a guard, but is not opposed to using his height to his advantage around the basket.

The last superb long range shooter on the team is 6-8 power forward Rob Ferguson. He has the best three-point shooting percentage on the team at nearly 44 percent. With Calathes and Ferguson hoisting up three’s, the Hawks have a couple big guys who can hit the three with consistency and that is big trouble for the opposing defense. St. Joe’s does not just shoot well from three, but they shoot well from everywhere, including the charity stripe.

Why They Can Disappoint:

Logically speaking, if your small forward is 6-10, you would think rebounding would not be a problem. But it is and it is not Calathes fault. He grabs a team high 7.5 boards per contest. Ferguson does decent enough for a guy who spends a lot of time on the perimeter and fellow starting forward Ahmad Nivins grabs a respectable 5.9 rebounds per game. The problem is the lack of depth up front. There are practically no other options and Ferguson and Nivins play about 33 minutes per game. Barring foul trouble, Ferguson and Nivins will probably play even more minutes in March. And they better grab more boards. Interestingly, Calathes, Nivins and Ferguson all average 1.2 or 1.3 blocks per game. Despite all the tall bodies around the basket on the defensive end, the Hawks opponents shoot a decent 43.6 percent from the floor and Coach Phil Martelli would definitely like to see that number go down a bit.

Who To Watch:

Point guard Tasheed Carr fits into a lot of categories. He can hit the three-point shot, although at a much lower percentage than some of his teammates. He can also help out on the glass and averages over four rebounds per game. The transfer from Iowa State is also a solid defender, but of course it is his ball handling and passing ability that is most valuable to the team. Carr dishes out 5.6 assists per game and has a solid 2.0 assist-to-turnover ratio. Carr is one of four players who average double figures in the scoring column and even when somebody is not scoring, somebody else will be and that is difficult to stop. Then it is just a question of St. Joe’s stopping the other team.

By the Numbers:

Scoring Offense: 74.0 (80^th in nation, 6^th in conference)

Scoring Defense: 67.7 (144, 7)

Field-Goal Percentage: 47.9 (25, 2)

Field-Goal Defense: 43.6 (157, 10)

Three-Point Field Goals Per Game: 7.4 (97, 7)

Three-Point Field-Goal Percentage: 39.1 (22, 3)

Free-Throw Percentage: 72.1 (75, 6)

Rebound Margin: 0.2 (176, 7)

Assists Per Game: 14.9 (74, 5)

Turnovers Per Game: 12.8 (51, 3)

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2008 NCAA Tournament Capsule: Baylor

Joel Welser — Sat, 15 Mar 2008 15:35:51 -0400

Baylor Bears

Big 12 (21-10, 9-7)

Big Wins: 11/18 vs Notre Dame (68-64), 1/23 at Texas A&M (116-110), 2/23 Kansas State (92-86)

Bad Losses: 1/5 Arkansas (78-85), 2/13 at Oklahoma State (83-93), 3/5 Texas A&M 57-71)

Last NCAA Appearance: 1988, First Round loss to Memphis

Coach: Scott Drew (First NCAA Appearance)

Probable Starters:

Curtis Jerrells, Junior, Guard, 14.9 ppg, 3.6 apg, 3.5 rpg

Aaron Bruce, Senior, Guard, 8.7 ppg, 2.0 apg

Henry Dugat, Junior, Guard, 12.1 ppg, 4.1 rpg

Kevin Rogers, Junior, Forward, 12.4 ppg, 8.6 rpg

Josh Lomers, Sophomore, Center, 3.8 ppg, 2.2 rpg

Key Roleplayers:

LaceDarius Dunn, Freshman, Guard, 13.5 ppg, 4.1 rpg

Tweety Carter, Sophomore, Guard, 9.6 ppg, 2.8 apg

Mark Shepherd, Senior, Forward, 1.5 ppg, 2.3 rpg

Mamadou Diene, Junior, Center, 3.4 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 1.6 bpg

Why They Can Surprise:

Don’t let the name on the front, or the back for that matter, of the jersey fool you…this is an explosive offense. Baylor was not known for much of anything on the court, but that has quickly changed under the tutelage of Coach Scott Drew. The Bears have five perimeter players who average over eight points per game. If one or two are cold, there is plenty of scoring punch left to pick up the slack. Curtis Jerrells is the best scorer of the bunch and the junior has now led the Bears in points and assists every year he has been in Waco. At one point in time Jerrells’ backcourt mate, Aaron Bruce, was the team’s leading scorer. Now Bruce ranks sixth on the team in scoring. That is because of the massive upgrade of talent that Coach Drew has brought in over the last three years.

Henry Dugat is the other perimeter starter and his versatility works well in the Bears three guard set-up. Tweety Carter and LaceDarius Dunn would be starting on most other teams. In fact, Carter was a part-time starter last year and he certainly did not lose his starting job due to a poor performance this season. Dunn, just a freshman, is a superb outside shooter, knocking down 41.8 percent of his attempts from beyond the arc.

Why They Can Disappoint:

On average, Baylor barely breaks even in the rebounding department. Forward Kevin Rogers is the only player on the team that grabs more than five boards per game. Yet, with all that talent on the perimeter, there is not much that can be done at this point. The other problem is assists. For a team that scores over 81 points a game, they should have more than 12.2 assists per contest. Sometimes it is understandable, like when a team gets to the free-throw line a lot or gets a bunch of put backs on offensive rebounds, but Baylor doesn’t really fit into those categories. They do get to the line quite a bit due to the guards attacking the basket, but there is still too much one-on-one play going on in Waco.

Who To Watch:

Rogers has developed into a decent scorer and rebounder, but he needs some help from his seven-foot centers. Josh Lomers and Mamdou Diene will not put up a lot of points or grab too many rebounds. Diene is a good shot blocker and will work hard on the glass, but he finds himself in foul trouble the minute he steps foot on the floor. Lomers can have the same foul difficulties and there is not much depth behind Rogers, Lomers and Diene in the post.

By the Numbers:

Scoring Offense: 81.4 (11^th in nation, 2^nd in conference)

Scoring Defense: 74.4 (284, 12)

Field-Goal Percentage: 45.6 (96, 4)

Field-Goal Defense: 42.9 (127, 8)

Three-Point Field Goals Per Game: 8.6 (27, 1)

Three-Point Field-Goal Percentage: 38.2 (48, 2)

Free-Throw Percentage: 74.2 (32, 1)

Rebound Margin: 0.1 (178, 7)

Assists Per Game: 12.2 (249, 11)

Turnovers Per Game: 12.6 (43, 2)

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2008 NCAA Tournament Capsule: Kentucky

Joel Welser — Sat, 15 Mar 2008 15:20:28 -0400

Kentucky Wildcats

Southeastern Conference (18-12, 12-4)

Big Wins: 1/12 Vanderbilt (79-73), 1/22 Tennessee (72-66), 2/23 Arkansas (63-58)

Bad Losses: 11/7 Gardner-Webb (68-84), 12/18 at Houston (69-83), 12/29 San Diego (72-81)

Last NCAA Appearance: 2007, Second Round loss to Kansas

Coach: Billy Gillispie (3-3 in 3 NCAA appearances)

Probable Starters:

Ramel Bradley, Senior, Guard, 15.8 ppg, 3.3 apg, 4.2 rpg

Derrick Jasper, Sophomore, Guard, 4.4 ppg, 2.3 apg, 5.4 rpg

Joe Crawford, Senior, Guard, 17.3 ppg, 2.1 apg, 3.6 rpg

Ramon Harris, Sophomore, Forward, 4.3 ppg, 3.6 rpg

Mark Coury, Sophomore, Forward, 2.0 ppg, 1.8 rpg

Key Roleplayers:

Michael Porter, Sophomore, Guard, 2.0 ppg, 1.1 apg

Perry Stevenson, Sophomore, Forward, 5.8 ppg, 5.1 rpg

Why They Can Surprise:

Joe Crawford and Ramel Bradley are the two healthy leading scorers for Kentucky and the explosive backcourt can keep the Wildcats in most games. Crawford has come on strong as an upperclassman and finally shown his immense potential. The Detroit, Michigan native is a superb athlete and will finish strong above the rim. His outside shooting is not very consistent, but Crawford will step outside and hit a three-pointer or two each game.

The senior leadership of Bradley keeps the team under control…usually. Bradley does commit over three turnovers per game, and that is a big problem for the Wildcats, but this team would be in trouble without Bradley. He is not a great outside shooter by any means, but Bradley is the best shooter on the team and if the outside shot is not falling for either Bradley or Crawford, Kentucky will have trouble scoring.

Why They Can Disappoint:

When Jodie Meeks went down with an injury, it was not good, but at least Kentucky had a few relatively experienced players ready to fill the void. But when forward Patrick Patterson injured his left ankle late in the season, it was a big hit. Patterson was averaging 16.4 points and a team high 7.7 rebounds and he will certainly be missed during the tournament. What is left is an inexperienced frontcourt with very little depth.

Who To Watch:

Replacing Patterson becomes the most important issue during the postseason. Ramon Harris and Mark Coury were starting most of the games anyway, but they provide nowhere near the scoring that Patterson did while he was healthy. Harris and Coury are more equipped do the dirty work. Harris, at 6-6, did the work on the wing and Coury, at 6-8, complimented Patterson under the basket. Without any scoring threat in the paint, UK might have trouble freeing up the guards to score. Perry Stevenson, who rarely starts but averages more minutes than Harris and Coury, might be the best scoring option in the paint. He averages 5.8 points per game, but it remains to be seen if he can be a consistent threat.

By the Numbers:

Scoring Offense: 69.0 (169^th in nation, 10^th in conference)

Scoring Defense: 65.5 (99, 2)

Field-Goal Percentage: 47.3 (36, 2)

Field-Goal Defense: 39.4 (19, 2)

Three-Point Field Goals Per Game: 5.9 (236, 12)

Three-Point Field-Goal Percentage: 37.4 (72, 2)

Free-Throw Percentage: 73.8 (39, 2)

Rebound Margin: 1.9 (116, 7)

Assists Per Game: 12.9 (192, 10)

Turnovers Per Game: 16.0 (266, 12)

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