Bracket Tips

Poll: Which Remaining #4 Seed Has Best Chance to Advance?

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 19 Mar 2012 08:04:04 -0700

Four Factors to NCAA Tournament Success

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 12 Mar 2012 14:52:36 -0700

As every basketball junkie knows, KenPom.com is a treasure trove of college basketball information. I pored through the data to find four key factors that propelled recent Final Four teams to success, and teams that excel at those factors this year:

Interior Defense

Lst year's winner, UCONN, was very strong on defense, particularly in the paint. UCONN was 7th in the country in opponents 2-point fg%. This year, the following teams excel at interior defense:

#1 Kentucky

#2 Kansas

#3 UCONN

#4 Louisville

#5 Wisconsin

#8 Memphis

#12 Florida St

#13 Michigan St

These 8 teams are extremely hard to score against on the inside. With Anthony Davis and Thomas Robinson manning the paint, Kentucky and Kansas in particular will be tough to score against. Teams that play good interior defense have what it takes to go all the way, as they'll only lose when opponents have fluke success on the outside.

Non-Conference Strength of Schedule

Last year's runner up Butler played an extremely tough schedule, the 7th hardest in the country. Overall records can be skewed by soft schedules and an inordinate amount of home games. The following teams are well prepped after playing brutal schedules:

#2 Mississippi Valley St

#3 Long Beach St

#14 Duke

#18 UNC Asheville

#20 Temple

#25 Memphis

Long Beach St, a 12 seed, played an extremely challenging schedule and came close to knocking off top 10 teams. They know what its like to play on the road and could be a team to watch.

Offensive Rebounding

In 2010, Duke went on to win it all thanks to an extremely efficient offense, #1 in the country. Duke wasn't even an amazing shooting team that year, but they were efficient because they limited turnovers and attacked the offensive glass. Here are some teams that will consistently get extra points off the boards this year:

#4 New Mexico St

#7 West Virginia

#8 Kansas St

#9 North Carolina

#14 Loyola (MD)

#16 Texas

#18 Kentucky

Led by Wendell McKines, New Mexico St is tough in the paint, which makes them dangerous against 4-seed Indiana. The only two teams on this list that combine offensive rebounding prowess with an ability to take care of the ball are North Carolina and Kentucky. They have to be considered serious National Champion contenders.

Defensive Pressure

VCU made a surprise run to the Final Four last year as an 11 seed. They were not particularly amazing at offense, but they did play great defense that forced a ton of turnovers. Here are teams that force the highest % of steals:

#1 VCU

#3 Syracuse

#4 Ohio

#6 Louisville

#14 Cincinnati

#15 Marquette

#16 Mississippi Valley St

#18 Missouri

VCU is even better at forcing steals this year than they were last year. Ohio is another low seed (a 13) that plays pressure defense. They could cause all kinds of trouble for opponent Michigan. You'll notice a lot of Big East teams on this list, perhaps why many of the league's games were low scoring this year.

Tourney Tidbits: Obscure Facts to Help you Pick Your Bracket

Jon Teitel — Mon, 12 Mar 2012 13:03:14 -0700

Every bit of information can help you win pick a better bracket. As part of his Bracket Tactics series, here are seven random factoids by Jon Teitel and how they can help you pick your bracket. Happy Picking!

Fact: Purdue has won 13 straight NCAA tournament openers since 1994 (longest active streak in country).

Strategy: The Boilermakers have played well whether they are seeded high (#1 seed in 1994) or low (#10 seed in 1999), so go ahead and advance them to the round of 32 (although Saint Mary's might try and do something about that streak).

Fact: There are only 7 active coaches who have won at least 70% of their NCAA tournament games (minimum 5 appearances).

Strategy: Louisville (Rick Pitino 74.5 W/L%) and Florida (Billy Donovan 73.3 W/L%) should not be overlooked.

Fact: There are 9 teams who have won at least 80% of their games in the round of 64 (minimum 5 games).

Strategy: Fight, shmight: Cincinnati has won 13 of its 15 opening games (86.7%). Look out Texas.

Fact: There are only 8 teams that have won at least 75% of their games in the round of 32 (minimum 5 games).

Strategy: Cinderella alert: If Davidson and/or Long Beach St can get win their opener, they have each won 4 of their 5 games (80%) when trying to get into the Sweet 16. Both of these teams are in the same pod.

Fact: The last champ with only 1 loss was Texas Western in 1966.

Strategy: Maybe it was a good thing Kentucky lost the SEC championship game.

Fact: Only 9 teams who have won at least 70% of their Sweet 16 games (minimum 5 games).

Strategy: Georgetown has won 8 of its 11 Sweet 16 games, but only Temple has won a perfect 7-of-7.

Fact: Nine teams have have won over 80% of their NCAA tournament games in their home state.

Strategy: You can bank on North Carolina (96.7 W/L%) and Duke (88.9 W/L%) in their Greensboro, NC games.

Also see: Tips On Picking the National Champion

Top 10 Sweet Sixteen Picks: 2012 Tournament

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 12 Mar 2012 11:20:13 -0700

Top 10 Sexy Sweet Sixteen Picks

Its one thing to pick a few first round upsets (here are 10 likely ones), its a whole other thing picking cinderella sweet sixteen teams. Every good bracket has at least one surprise sweet sixteen team (if not two), so here are the 10 best ones to choose from:

10 #12 VCU

Can last year's Cinderella team do it again? In a different spot, I'd think they'd have a much better chance to make a run, but Wichita St might be the best of the 5 seeds. VCU arguably deserved to be a 10 seed considering their top 40 RPI and strong finish. If VCU can get past Wichita St, then Indiana in the 2nd round might actually be an easier game.

9 #14 BYU/Iona

The odds of either of these teams advancing to the Sweet Sixteen is obviously hurt by the fact they'd need to win an extra game. But these teams are really 11 or 12 seeds that got knocked down to 14 because of scheduling issues. Both of these teams run high-octane, high-tempo offenses and thus should fare well against a Marquette team that plays a similar style.

8 #11 Texas

While Cincinnati had a good run in the Big East tournament, they're more than capable of flaming out early in the Big Dance. Texas has a lot of losses, but most of them are to Top 30 teams, and the computer rankings say that Cincinnati is not a Top 30 team. The biggest thing holding Texas back is a lack of 3-pt shooting.. if they happen to find a hot streak and J'Covan Brown is on his A game, the Sweet Sixteen is easily possible

7 #12 Harvard

With wins over Florida St and St. Joseph's, Harvard has shown ability to beat post-season quality teams. Facing Vanderbilt in the first round is not a bad draw for Harvard, considering Kevin Stalling's teams have been known to fizzle out in the NCAA Tournament. A potential second round matchup with Wisconsin seems favorable as the Badgers tempo plays right into Harvard's style.

6 #12 Long Beach St

Long Beach St lost to Top 5 teams North Carolina and Kansas by just 6 and 8 points in true road games. That shows you how dangerous the 49ers are. Point guard Casper Ware was hot in the Big West tournament, and he has the ability to dominate a game. If Long Beach St could somehow top New Mexico, they might even be favored in the next match against Louisville or Davidson.

5 #13 Ohio

Two years ago, Ohio won a first round game against Georgetown, and their opening game against Michigan seems quite similar. Guard DJ Cooper has star potential, but his scoring ability is highly eratic. When he's on, Ohio can be extremely dangeorus.

4 #11 NC State

Appropriately seeded in the 11 range, NC St takes on San Diego St to start things off. According to KenPom.com and other similar computer ratings, NC State is actually ranked higher than the Aztecs. In a sense, the ratings suggest this is really a battle between two 11 seeds, exemplified by the game's 1 point spread. Lurking beyond San Diego St is Georgetown, arguably the weakest of the 3 seeds.

3 #14 Belmont

Many thought Belmont had an outside shot at the Top 25 this year, but they lost a couple close games early before finding their groove late in the season. The A-Sun champs are feared due to their highly efficient offense. Georgetown rarely loses to lesser teams, but their zone could play into Belmont's hands. The winner of this game faces San Diego St or NC State.. Las Vegas could easily favor Belmont against either of those two.

2 #13 Davidson

Davidson faces West #4 seed Louisville to open things up. Louisville used stifling defense to win the Big East tournament, but yet somehow they seem vulnerable. The Cardinals tend to play a lot of close games, and although they tend to win those game, it always keeps the door open for a potential upset. If Davidson manages to squeeze by, they'd face the winner of Long Beach St and New Mexico.

1 #14 Saint Bonaventure

The Bonnies, led by star Andrew Nicholson, face East Region #3 FSU to start things off. Despite winning the ACC title, FSU has shown a willingness to play down to opponents, and Leonard Hamilton teams have lost in the first round two of the last three years. A potential second round matchup with either Cincinnati or Texas looms, but neither of those teams strike fear into anybody.

More Bracket Tips. Plus Top 10 Potential First Round Upsets

NCAA Tournament: 10 Potential First Round Upsets

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 12 Mar 2012 10:04:11 -0700

Top 10 Most Likely Upsets

March is no time to play it safe. When you fill in your brackets over the next few days, here are the 10 most likely First Round upsets to focus on:

10 #14 South Dakota St over #3 Baylor

Led by Nate Wolters, South Dakota St had a rock-solid season with only one bad loss. In games against power conference teams, they've been very competitive (including a shock 19 point win at Washington.) This is not the best match-up for the Jackrabbits though as Baylor's size will be hard for them to handle.

9 #12 VCU over #5 Wichita St

VCU arguably deserved a 10 or 11 seed, instead of getting unlucky going against a Wichita St team that arguably was a 4 seed. Although their not as good as last year's Final Four team, the Rams play solid D which keeps them in most games.

9 #15 Detroit over #2 Kansas

While no 16 seed has ever won a first round game, 15 seeds pull off an upset about once a decade. Will this be that time? Detroit is hot, having come out of the solid Horizon League, and they have a big-time player in Ray McCallum. And don't forget, Kansas lost a home game to Davidson earlier in the year, so they're vulnerable. Don't bet the house on this one, but if you're feeling uber-risky, maybe this is your play.

7 #13 New Mexico St over #4 Indiana

The Aggies have hit their stride over the last month, and face Indiana feeling quite confident. As good as Indiana was this year, they still were shaky on the road, losing to the likes of Iowa and Nebraska.

6 #11 Colorado St over #6 Murray St

According to the RPI, Colorado St is barely any worse than Murray St, with the 26th best ranking vs 22nd for Murray. In a sense, this is like a 6 seed vs 7 seed game by the RPI. The spread is only 2.5 points right now which shows you how close Vegas thinks this game is.

5 #12 Long Beach St over #5 New Mexico

According to most ratings (including the RPI and KenPom), Long Beach St is a top 40 team. They played an extremely hard non-conference schedule, but always seemed to come just short of the big upset. Is this the time they finally break through?

4 #12 Harvard over #5 Vanderbilt

While Vandy is appropriately seeded as a 5, Harvard arguably deserves to be a 9 or 10 seed. The Crimson beat the likes of Florida St and St. Joseph's earlier, and although they didn't dominate the Ivy League like many expected, the Ivy League was also better than most realize. So long as Harvard can keep the game at a slow pace, this should be a game until the final minutes.

3 #14 Saint Bonaventure over #3 Florida St

Florida St is a hard team to figure out. They've had great results against Duke and North Carolina, but yet lost to Boston College, Princeton, and Clemson. With Andrew Nicholson, the Bonnies have a player more talented than anyone on FSU.

2 #13 Ohio over #4 Michigan

Led by do-everything PG DJ Cooper, Ohio is a feared 13 seed. The Bobcats beat 7 top 100 teams, and MAC squads tend to fare well in the Tournament. Michigan was great at home this year, but no so great on the road. If the Wolverines aren't hitting threes, Ohio could pull off the upset.

1 #13 Davidson over #4 Louisville

Although Louisville won the Big East tournament, they seem very vulnerable here. Davidson not only beat Kansas on the road earlier in the year, but they only lost to 5 seed Vanderbilt by 4 points as well. Louisville wins by playing tight D, but because they struggle to score, they fail to crush weaker opponents and keep them in the game. This one could be interesting.

More Bracket Tips

March Madness Infographic w/ Bracket Tips

CHN — Mon, 12 Mar 2012 08:32:43 -0700

The following NCAA Bracket Infographic is courtesy of Jen Rhee. Besides some interesting factoids, it will also help you pick a winning bracket.

Created by: Business Degree

Writer's Picks: Upsets, Cinderellas, and the Champion

Shawn Siegel — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 21:52:40 -0700

Who will make the deepest runs in the 2012 NCAA Tournament? Who will flop early? Which players will shine? Alongside of CollegeHoops.net's Official Prediction, our crack staff of college basketball gurus presents their March Madness picks.

When it comes to the Final Four, our picks are admittedly rather tame, as we each have Kentucky and North Carolina in the Final Four. However, each of us has projected multiple juicy early round upsets, including one person's shock Elite Eight pick.

Disagree with our picks? Voice your opinion in our NCAA Tournament Fan Polls.

Bracket Picks	Raphielle Johnson Assistant Editor @raphiellej	Greg Mengelt Game Predictions @gregmengeltbb
Champion
Final Four (South)	Kentucky	Kentucky
Final Four (West)	Syracuse	Syracuse
Final Four (East)	North Carolina	North Carolina
Final Four (Midwest)	Missouri	Missouri
Elite Eight	Baylor	Baylor
Elite Eight	Ohio St	Ohio St
Elite Eight	Georgetown	Detroit
Elite Eight	Memphis	Memphis

Players
Tournament MVP	Anthony Davis	Kendall Marshall
All-Tournament	Kendall Marshall	Ricardo Ratliffe
All-Tournament	Dion Waiters	Quincy Acy
All-Tournament	Marcus Denmon	Will Barton
All-Tournament	Terrence Jones	Anthony Davus

Other
Sweet 16 Surprises	Memphis + Xavier	Detroit + Belmont
First Round Sleepers	NMSU Montana Davidson	Detroit Belmont Lehigh
Early Round Dud	Michgan St + Duke	Kansas + Duke
Best 1st Round Game	Wichita St vs VCU	Indiana vs NMSU
Committee Flop	No Drexel	No Drexel + Memphis an 8

Bracket Picks	Shawn Siegel Head Editor @collegehoopsnet	Jon Teitel Interviews
Champion
Final Four (South)	Kentucky	Kentucky
Final Four (West)	Ohio St	Syracuse
Final Four (East)	North Carolina	Kansas
Final Four (Midwest)	Michigan St	Marquette
Elite Eight	Duke	Baylor
Elite Eight	Syracuse	Ohio St
Elite Eight	Georgetown	North Carolina
Elite Eight	Murray St	Louisville

Players
Tournament MVP	Anthony Davis	Kris Joseph
All-Tournament	Isaiah Canaan	Dion Waiters
All-Tournament	Harrison Barnes	Darius Johnson-Odom
All-Tournament	Jared Sullinger	Thomas Robinson
All-Tournament	Draymond Green	Anthony Davis

Other
Sweet 16 Surprises	Long Beach + Murray	Florida + San Diego St
First Round Sleeper	Long Beach Davidson Ohio	Long Beach VCU Harvard
Early Round Dud	Missouri + Florida St	Missouri + Duke
Best 1st Round Game	UNM vs Long Beach	Harvard vs Vandy
Committee Flop	Iona In, Creighton an 8	Colorado too High

NCAA Tournament 2012: How To Pick the National Champion

Jon Teitel — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 00:19:48 -0800

CollegeHoops.net's Bracket Tactics will help you pick this year's national champion & finish at the top of your NCAA Bracket pool. These 8 tips are based on previous NCAA Tournament results. At the end, we will use the 8 tips to help narrow down your projected champion to a few odds-on favorites:

TIP #1: No team that lost its conference tournament opening game has never gone on to win the NCAA title the same year.

STRATEGY: The extra few days of rest have not proven helpful.

MEANING: Avoid Marquette, Kansas St, and Iowa St before penciling them is as your champ.

TIP #2: All but 4 champs since 1985 have averaged 77+ PPG.

STRATEGY: Stellar offense usually leads the way (last year being an exception.)

MEANING: Consider North Carolina, Missouri, Duke, and Creighton. Be wary of Michigan St, Louisville, Michigan, Georgetown, and Wisconsin.

TIP #3: All but 1 champ since 2006 won their conference tournament before winning the national title.

STRATEGY: There is something to be said for late season momentum.

MEANING: Avoid Syracuse, Kansas, Duke, UNLV, Indiana, Wisconsin to win it all.

TIP #4: Since 1979, the only national champion without a McDonald's All-American on the roster was Maryland in 2002.

STRATEGY: Talent rises to the top in national tournaments.

MEANING: Avoid Cincinnati, Murray St, San Diego St to win it all.

TIP #5: Since UNLV won the title in 1990, each of the past 21 champs has been from a power-conference: ACC (8), SEC (5), Big East (4), Pac-12 (2), Big 12 (1), Big 10 (1).

STRATEGY: You might want to think twice before picking a mid-major team to win it all

MEANING: Avoid Creighton, Memphis, Murray St, New Mexico, San Diego St, Temple, UNLV

TIP #6: The last champ with only 1 loss was Texas Western in 1966, and the last 2 teams entering the NCAA tournament with only 1 loss ended up losing in the title game (2005 IL & 2008 Memphis).

STRATEGY: The pressure of winning so many teams in a row can wear on teams.

MEANING: Kentucky might make the title game, but might not win it all.

TIP #7: Only 2 coaches with 0 to 4 prior tournament appearances have won the title since 1985. (Izzo & Fisher)

STRATEGY: Focus on teams with veteran coaches to win it all.

MEANING: Avoid Baylor (Scott Drew: 2 prior appearances), Marquette (Buzz Williams: 3rd appearance), Murray St (Steve Prohm: 1st appearance), and Virginia (Tony Bennett: 2 prior appearances)

TIP #8: Each champ since 2002 has had a Top 75 strength of schedule.

STRATEGY: Stay away from teams that played soft schedules. You have to play the best to know how to beat the best.

MEANING: Avoid Missouri (SOS 86), Creighton (SOS 102), Gonzaga (SOS 78), Saint Mary's (SOS 104) and Murray St (SOS 157)

IN SUMMARY

The team with the most strikes against it is Murray St. Other teams to seriously avoid winning it all include Creighton, Marquette, San Diego St, and Wisconsin. Despite high seeds, be wary of picking Syracuse, Kansas, Michigan St, and Baylor to go all the way. Duke and Missouri have pros and cons, while Kentucky has a better shot. North Carolina and Ohio St might be the best choices.

Bracket Tactics: 16 Tips for All 16 Seeds

Jon Teitel — Wed, 07 Mar 2012 16:11:34 -0800

Each year, CollegeHoops.net's Jon Teitel comes through with nifty stats and tips that can help you win your NCAA Tournament Pool. Here are 16 actionable Bracket Tips for the 16 tournament seeds:

#16 seed: Only one 16 seed has ever taken a #1 seed to OT (Purdue beat Western Carolina 73-71 in 1996)

What this means: Whatever you, don't pick a 16 seed to upset a #1 seed.

#15 seed: The last to win a game was Hampton in 2001

What this means: While a couple 15 seeds have won a game, don't start picking upsets until the 14 seeds

#14 seed: Only 2 have made the Sweet 16 since 1985 (1986 Cleveland State and 1997 Chattanooga)

What this means: Over the last decade, Cinderella runs have focused on 12 or 11 seeds. Perhaps this year will be different?

#13 seed: Morehead St won a game last year.

What this means: While everyone focuses on 12 over 5 upsets, there's a decent chance a 13 will win a game this year (they just might not go to Sweet 16.)

#12 seed: At least one 12 seed has made the Sweet 16 each year since 2008 (including Richmond in 2011)

What this means: 12 seeds have been hot in recent years, ride the wave and pick a 12 seed to reach the Sweet 16 again.

#11 seed: VCU made it to the Final 4 as an 11 seed in 2011

What this means: The last few years have shown how much parity there is in college basketball.

#10 seed: Florida St made the Sweet 16 in 2011 from this spot.

What this means: Teams that play great D, like FSU and Butler last year, can always be dangerous in the tourney.

#9 seed: Only four 9 seeds have made the Sweet 16 since 1985 (1992 UTEP, 1994 BC, 2004 UAB, 2010 UNI)

What this means: 9 seeds often beat 8 seeds, but 8 seeds rarely win another game.

#8 seed: Only 4 8 seeds have made it to the Final 4 since 1985 (1985 Villanova [won title], 2000 WI, 2000 NC, 2011 Butler)

What this means: If an 8 seed knocks off a #1 seed in the 2nd round, they can easily run to the Final Four.

#7 seed: The last to make the Sweet 16 was WVU in 2008

What this means: 6 and 7 seeds are often overrated power conference teams that fizzle out early.

#6 seed: The last 6 seeds to make the Sweet 16 were Xavier and Tennessee (both in 2010)

What this means: See 7 seed above.

#5 seed: The last 5 seeds to make the Final Four were Butler and Michigan St (both in 2010)

What this means: Although 5's struggle against 12's in the opening round, once they get through, look out.

#4 seed: Only two 4 seeds have reached the title game since 1985 (1996 Syracuse, 1997 national champ Arizona)

What this means: While 4 seeds are usually Top 20 pedigree teams, don't pick one to win it all.

#3 seed: Four 3 seeds have won the title (1989 MI, 2003 Syracuse, 2006 Florida, 2011 Connecticut)

What this means: There's often been a substantial jump in success between 3 and 4 seeds.

#2 seed: Great in the 2^nd round if they made it to their conference tourney final, but below-average if they did not.

What this means: When 2 seeds fizzle out in their conference tourneys, its usually a sign of things to come.

#1 seed: Only twice since 1985 has there been a Final 4 without at least one #1 seed (2006 and 2011)

What this means: It's fun to have a risky bracket, but silly not to pick a Final Four without a 1 seed.

Check out CollegeHoops.net's Bracket Tips for more help picking your bracket.

2012 Free Bracket Contests

Shawn Siegel — Mon, 05 Mar 2012 16:00:40 -0800

Low on cash? Need a little economic stimulus? Think you know college basketball? Then NCAA Tournament bracket contests are for you. There are contests of all shapes and sizes. Free ones. Expensive ones. Hard to win massive prizes. Easier to win smaller prizes. And then contests that you can set up yourself.

Here are 16 NCAA Tournament bracket games, pools, and contests to keep you busy during March Madness:

Free 2012 Bracket Contests

CollegeHoops.net Bracket Contest - Our yearly contest, with some cool features and prizes provided by RetroCollegeCuts.com. Print out our 2012 brackets to help you make your picks.

Yahoo: NCAA Tournament Pickem - Can't go wrong with any of Yahoo's fantasy offerings. $10,000 for the best bracket. Good for running your own pool. They also have a Women's Pickem contest.

ESPN's Tournament Challenge - Prove yourself amongst the thousands, win a $10,000 Best Buy gift card. Create your own group.

CBS

Bracket Challenge - Similar to ESPN. Bonus that you can watch MMOD while following your bracket. Win trips to the 2013 Final Four. Also on Facebook.

Round By Round Brackets - A good alternative for those who don't want to be eliminated by the first weekend. Partnership with CoachesVsCancer.

BracketManager - Run your pool amongst friends. Beware all the AT&T ads.

FoxSports Bracket Challenge - Win a $1 million with a perfect bracket. More realistically, win a TV or some smaller gift cards.

BracketContest.com - No clue about this site, but it ranks high on Google, and it looks like they legitimately give out cash.

NBCSports: It's Madness - Win a $2,000 or gift cards from TicketCity. Easy to join.

Sporting News Bracket Insanity - Hosted on Facebook. Win some smart phones.

USA Today's March Mania - More of the same here.

Athlon Sports Bracket Breakdown - Win some JVC products, gift cards, and $60k for getting 60 picks right.

+2012 NCAA Tournament

• Basketball Tournament Coverage

• Bracketology

• NCAA Bracket 2012

• Bracket Contest

• 2012 Tournament Schedule

CHN's Bracket Contest